Financial Conditions Index’s - HSE University Guihua… · •Definition of Financial Conditions...
Transcript of Financial Conditions Index’s - HSE University Guihua… · •Definition of Financial Conditions...
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Financial Conditions Index’s
Construction and Its Application on
Financial Monitoring and Economic
Forecasting
Zheng Guihuan
June, 2014
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Outline
• Overview
• Introduction of the FCI construction
method
• Calculate China’s FCI
• FCI can reflect the situation of financial
operation in China
• FCI can predict the economic trends
better
• Conclusion
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1. Overview (1)
• Definition of Financial Conditions Index (FCI) :
– a comprehensive index which is constructed based on
the combination of variables, such as currency price (For
example, money, exchange rate), and asset price (For
example, stock index and house price).
• FCI can make up the shortage of using the
conventional indexes, such as money supply and
interest rate, in measuring the financial conditions
and forecasting the economic trend.
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1. Overview (2)
• In 1990s, Central Bank of Canada developed
the Monetary Conditions Index (MCI).
• MCI has been widely applied in many central
banks and international institutions.
• With the development of economy and finance,
the information of asset price has been paid
more and more attention to evaluate financial
situation.
• Some researchers developed FCI that adding
some asset price variables into the
combination of index.
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2. Introduction of FCI construction method
The
Construction
Model
Selection
of the
Indicators
Calculate
the
weights
Constructing FCI
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2.1 Indicator selection
Type Indicators
Money Supply narrow money supply(M1),broad money
supply(M2)
Exchange Rate
bilateral exchange rate
exchange rate index, such as efficient exchange
rate from BIS
Interest Rate
market interest rate: short term interest rate,
bond interest rate, bond interest margin
policy interest rate: deposit or loan benchmark
interest rate
Capital Market market value/GDP, price earnings ratio, stock
wealth owned by household, stock price
Real Estate Price house average price, real estate climate indices
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2.2 Common forms of the FCI
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2.3 Classification of the methods building
the FCI
• Reduced Aggregate Demand Equation model
•The VAR model
• Weighted principal components
Calculate the weights in FCI based on the
coefficients of equation.
Calculate the weights based on the impact level.
Take the significance probability of the principal
component as the weights
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The shortage of existing methods
• One problem is about the estimation
models. Deviation from equilibrium of
each variable need to be estimated in the
common measuring form of the FCI,
which may cause large error.
• Another one is about the determination of
the weights, whose estimation models will
differ depending on the purpose of FCI.
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The innovation of this paper (1)
• we select the percent change rate of the
variable as indicators to construct the FCI,
which not only effectively describe the
indicators, but also avoid errors arising from of
gap measuring.
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The innovation of this paper (2)
• Second, the Principal Component
Analysis and Dynamic Factor methods are
both introduced to build FCI.
• Dynamic Factor method can directly
extract factor sequences which depict the
characterized fluctuation of variables,
without determining weights.
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3. Calculate China’s FCI
Type Indicators Sign Data resources
Money supply
M2, the current growth rate of balance at period-end M2 People’s Bank of China
Interest rate
7 days interbank funding weighted average nominal
interest rates in The national interbank funding
center
Exchange rate
RMB’s nominal effective exchange rate index, the
current growth rate ex Bank for International
Settlements
Stock index
Shanghai securities composite index, the current
growth rate stock Shanghai Stock Exchange
House price
Commercial housing sales price(Commercial housing
sales divided by the number of commercial housing sales area), the current growth rate
hp National Bureau of Statistics
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FCI
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
20
00
-01
20
00
-07
20
01
-01
20
01
-07
20
02
-01
2002-0
7
20
03
-01
20
03
-07
20
04
-01
20
04
-07
20
05
-01
20
05
-07
2006-0
1
20
06
-07
20
07
-01
20
07
-07
20
08
-01
20
08
-07
20
09
-01
20
09
-07
20
10
-01
20
10
-07
2011
-01
2011
-07
20
12
-01
20
12
-07
20
13
-01
FCI_Dynamic Factor
FCI_Principal Component Analysis(right axis)
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FCI and MCI
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2 2000-0
1
2000-0
8
2001-0
3
2001-1
0
2002-0
5
2002-1
2
2003-0
7
2004-0
2
2004-0
9
2005-0
4
2005-1
1
2006-0
6
2007-0
1
2007-0
8
2008-0
3
2008-1
0
2009-0
5
2009-1
2
2010-0
7
2011-0
2
2011-0
9
2012-0
4
2012-1
1
2013-0
6
prudent monetary policies
prudent monetary policies moderates the money
supply and credit
mode- rately tight to
tight
moderately loose
monetary policy
prudent monetary policies
FCI
MCI
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4. FCI can reflect the situation of financial
operation in China
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
20
05
-03
20
05
-09
2006
-03
20
06
-09
20
07
-03
20
07
-09
20
08
-03
20
08
-09
20
09
-03
20
09
-09
20
10
-03
20
10
-09
2011
-03
2011
-09
20
12
-03
20
12
-09
20
13
-03
20
13
-09
20
14
-03
FCI
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5. FCI can predict the economic trends
better (1)
• FCI performs better as a leading indicator of
CPI
coefficient of
correlation
leading
length(months)
FCI 0.72 10
M2 0.48 12
interest rate -0.41 12
exchange
rate 0.59 11
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5. FCI can predict the economic trends
better (2)
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
2005-0
3
20
05
-09
20
06
-03
20
06
-09
20
07
-03
20
07
-09
20
08
-03
20
08
-09
20
09
-03
20
09
-09
20
10
-03
20
10
-09
2011
-03
20
11
-09
20
12
-03
20
12
-09
20
13
-03
20
13
-09
20
14
-03
CPI-TC
FCI(right axis)
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• FCI performs better as a leading indicator of
GDP
5. FCI can predict the economic trends
better (3)
coefficient of
correlation
leading
length(quarters)
FCI 0.82 2
M2, interest
rate and
exchange rate
No passing the statistical test,and
the anteriority is not significant
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5. FCI can predict the economic trends
better (4)
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
20
05
-03
20
05
-09
20
06
-03
20
06
-09
20
07
-03
20
07
-09
20
08
-03
20
08
-09
20
09
-03
20
09
-09
20
10
-03
2010-0
9
2011
-03
2011
-09
20
12
-03
2012-0
9
20
13
-03
20
13
-09
20
14
-03
GDP-TC
FCI(right axis)
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6. Conclusion
• FCI can better reflect the situation of China's financial
operation, and can better predict the economic trends.
Therefore, FCI can serve as an important reference
index, whose performance is superior to single financial
variables.
• Though the literature found that introducing asset-price
variable into MCI to design FCI is an important
approach to improve the MCI’s performances in
economic forecasting and policy decision-making, but
assets price in China's FCI provides limited information.
With further developing of the financial market, asset
prices information will be more important.
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