Financial Analysis - J.C. Penney Company, Inc., through a subsidiary, operates department stores in...
8
20.08.2013 Ticker: JC Penney Co Inc Benchmark: Currency: New York: JCP, Currency: USD S&P 500 INDEX (SPX) Sector: Consumer Discretionary Industry: Multiline Retail Year: Telephone 1-972-431-1000 Revenue (M) Business Segments in USD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in USD Sales (M) Website www.jcpenney.com No of Employees Department Stores 12985 United States 12985 Address 6501 Legacy Drive Plano, TX 75024-3698 United States Share Price Performance in USD Price 13.22 1M Return -19.1% 52 Week High 32.52 6M Return -34.5% 52 Week Low 12.34 52 Wk Return -46.4% 52 Wk Beta 1.09 YTD Return -32.9% Credit Ratings Bloomberg HY5 S&P CCC+ Date 28.02.2013 Outlook NEG Moody's - Date - Outlook NEG Fitch B- Date 28.02.2013 Outlook NEG Valuation Ratios 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14E 1/15E 1/16E P/E 21.1x 18.8x 58.5x - - - - EV/EBIT 9.4x 9.8x 23.5x - - - - EV/EBITDA 5.4x 6.1x 10.9x - - 33.3x 9.8x P/S 0.3x 0.4x 0.5x 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x P/B 1.2x 1.4x 2.2x 1.4x 1.2x 1.5x 2.3x Div Yield 3.2% 2.5% 1.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Profitability Ratios % 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14E 1/15E 1/16E Gross Margin 39.4 39.2 36.0 31.3 31.9 35.3 37.1 EBITDA Margin 6.6 7.6 5.6 -3.6 -4.0 1.3 4.3 Operating Margin 3.8 4.7 2.6 -7.8 -8.9 -2.9 0.0 Profit Margin 1.4 2.2 -0.9 -7.6 -7.2 -3.7 -1.4 Return on Assets 2.0 3.0 -1.2 -9.3 -8.5 -4.5 -2.3 Return on Equity 5.6 7.6 -3.2 -27.4 -32.0 -28.4 -22.6 Leverage and Coverage Ratios 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 Current Ratio 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.4 Current Capitalization in USD Quick Ratio 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.4 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 219.3 EBIT/Interest 2.5 3.6 2.0 -4.5 Market Capitalization (M) 2912.4 Tot Debt/Capital 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Cash and ST Investments (M) 821.0 Tot Debt/Equity 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 Total Debt (M) 3826.0 Eff Tax Rate % 38.2 34.9 - - Preferred Equity (M) 0.0 LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0 Investments (M) 0.0 Enterprise Value (M) 5917.4 J.C. Penney Company, Inc., through a subsidiary, operates department stores in the United States and Puerto Rico. The Company provides merchandise and services to consumers through department stores, catalog departments, and the Internet. JCPenney markets primarily family apparel, jewelry, shoes, accessories, and home furnishings. JCP UN 12'985 116'000 Company Analysis - Overview 100% Department Stores 100% United States Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
-
Upload
qms-advisors-llc -
Category
Documents
-
view
39 -
download
0
description
Kyle Bass Said to Bet on J.C. Penney Comeback With Loan Purchase2013-08-20 06:01:56.890 GMT Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge-fund manager J. Kyle Bass is betting on a comeback by J.C. Penney Co., the retailer roiled by falling sales and a dispute with investor William Ackman, according to a person familiar with the matter. Bass, who focuses on corporate turnarounds, has accumulated a long position in Penney over the past two weeks by buying the company’s secured loans, said the person, who asked not to be named because the information is private. He has also sold a type of insurance called credit-default swaps to other investors that pays off only if the Plano, Texas-based company defaults on its debts, an event he considers unlikely, said the person. Penney has lost a third of its value this year as an overhaul started by former Chief Executive Officer Ron Johnson fails to win new shoppers and alienates longtime customers. Ackman, whose Pershing Square Capital Management LP is the company’s largest shareholder with almost 18 percent of its shares, resigned from the board last week after seeking to oust Chairman Tom Engibous and accelerate the search for a new CEO. Bass, 43, founder of Hayman Capital Management LP in Dallas, shares a bullish view on Penney with investors Soros Fund Management LLC and Glenview Capital Management LLC, the company’s second- and 10th-largest investors. Both shareholders sided against Ackman in the spat over management. Chris Kirkpatrick, Hayman’s general counsel, didn’t immediately return a voice-mail message left at his office after regular business hours. Penney closed yesterday at $13.22 in New York. It has fallen 33 percent this year, compared with a gain of 15 percent by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Declining Sales Penney is struggling to recover from its worst sales in more than two decades. In the fiscal year ended in February, the first year of Johnson’s attempted turnaround, revenue plunged 25 percent to $13 billion. Analysts predict a wider second-quarter loss and the ninth straight sales drop when Penney reports later today in the U.S. The quarter was the first entirely under CEO Mike Ullman, who returned in April to replace Johnson. Ullman and Engibous have the board’s “overwhelming support,” Penney said on Aug. 13. The company has since said that it entered into an agreement with Ackman to allow him to start selling shares in November. Bass is betting that Penney can stabilize sales and has enough cash and credit to carry it until the 2014 holiday season, said the person familiar with the matter. In the hedge- fund manager’s view, the company’s apparel business is rebounding and it is sitting on valuable real estate. Bass, a former salesman for Bear Stearns Cos. and Legg Mason Inc., started Hayman in 2006 to focus on corporate turnarounds, restructurings and mortgages. The firm made $500 million amid the U.S. subprime crisis and is now betting on a Japanese fiscal collapse.
Transcript of Financial Analysis - J.C. Penney Company, Inc., through a subsidiary, operates department stores in...
20.08.2013
Ticker: JC Penney Co Inc Benchmark:
Currency: New York: JCP, Currency: USD S&P 500 INDEX (SPX)
Sector: Consumer Discretionary Industry: Multiline Retail Year:
Telephone 1-972-431-1000 Revenue (M) Business Segments in USD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in USD Sales (M)
Website www.jcpenney.com No of Employees Department Stores 12985 United States 12985
Address 6501 Legacy Drive Plano, TX 75024-3698 United States
Share Price Performance in USD
Price 13.22 1M Return -19.1%
52 Week High 32.52 6M Return -34.5%
52 Week Low 12.34 52 Wk Return -46.4%
52 Wk Beta 1.09 YTD Return -32.9%
Credit Ratings
Bloomberg HY5
S&P CCC+ Date 28.02.2013 Outlook NEG
Moody's - Date - Outlook NEG
Fitch B- Date 28.02.2013 Outlook NEG
Valuation Ratios
1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14E 1/15E 1/16E
P/E 21.1x 18.8x 58.5x - - - -
EV/EBIT 9.4x 9.8x 23.5x - - - -
EV/EBITDA 5.4x 6.1x 10.9x - - 33.3x 9.8x
P/S 0.3x 0.4x 0.5x 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x
P/B 1.2x 1.4x 2.2x 1.4x 1.2x 1.5x 2.3x
Div Yield 3.2% 2.5% 1.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Profitability Ratios %
1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14E 1/15E 1/16E
Gross Margin 39.4 39.2 36.0 31.3 31.9 35.3 37.1
EBITDA Margin 6.6 7.6 5.6 -3.6 -4.0 1.3 4.3
Operating Margin 3.8 4.7 2.6 -7.8 -8.9 -2.9 0.0
Profit Margin 1.4 2.2 -0.9 -7.6 -7.2 -3.7 -1.4
Return on Assets 2.0 3.0 -1.2 -9.3 -8.5 -4.5 -2.3
Return on Equity 5.6 7.6 -3.2 -27.4 -32.0 -28.4 -22.6
Leverage and Coverage Ratios
1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13
Current Ratio 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.4 Current Capitalization in USD
Quick Ratio 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.4 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 219.3
EBIT/Interest 2.5 3.6 2.0 -4.5 Market Capitalization (M) 2912.4
Tot Debt/Capital 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Cash and ST Investments (M) 821.0
Tot Debt/Equity 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 Total Debt (M) 3826.0
Eff Tax Rate % 38.2 34.9 - - Preferred Equity (M) 0.0
LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0
Investments (M) 0.0
Enterprise Value (M) 5917.4
J.C. Penney Company, Inc., through a subsidiary, operates department stores in the
United States and Puerto Rico. The Company provides merchandise and services to
consumers through department stores, catalog departments, and the Internet.
JCPenney markets primarily family apparel, jewelry, shoes, accessories, and home
furnishings.
JCP UN
12'985
116'000
Company Analysis - Overview
100%
AbmUoqjbkq Pqlobp
100%
Rkfqba PqUqbp
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
JC Penney Co Inc
Target price in USD
Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date
0.%Grh%.0 /1% 11% 0/% /-%7rd%.0 .0&// .3&5. AbrqpZeb 8Xkg M7RI QORPPBII elha .2&-- .6%7rd%.0/5%Grk%.0 /1% 11% 0/% .6%7rd%.0 .0&// .3&5. 8rZgfkdeXi ObpbXoZe Dolrm A7SFA G DIF9H Yrv /0&-- .6%7rd%.00.%JXv%.0 /.% 13% 00% .3%7rd%.0 .0&1- .4&.. Mfmbo GXccoXv KBBIV G K Q7JJFKD7 kbrqoXh .0&-- .5%7rd%.00-%7mo%.0 .4% 15% 02% .2%7rd%.0 .0&50 .4&.. Pqbokb! 7dbb IbXZe 9E7OIBP M DOLJ Yrv /0&-- .3%7rd%.0/6%JXo%.0 6% 22% 03% .1%7rd%.0 .0&.. .4&.. Qbhpbv 7asfplov Dolrm A7K7 QBIPBV kl oXqfkd pvpqbi /-&-- .1%7rd%.0/5%CbY%.0 .1% 2-% 03% .0%7rd%.0 ./&35 .4&.. 8JL 9XmfqXh JXogbqp T7VKB ELLA rkabombocloi 4&-- .0%7rd%.00.%GXk%.0 .2% 22% 0-% ./%7rd%.0 .0&.4 .3&6- KloqeZlXpq ObpbXoZe GBCCBOV PQBFK kbrqoXh .0%7rd%.00.%AbZ%./ /-% 22% /2% 6%7rd%.0 ./&54 .3&6- Dfhcloa PbZrofqfbp 8BOK7OA PLPKF9H Yrv ./%7rd%.00-%Kls%./ /-% 22% /2% 5%7rd%.0 .0&33 .3&6- GMJlodXk J7QQEBT 8LPP kbrqoXh .0&-- ./%7rd%.00.%LZq%./ /2% 3-% .2% 4%7rd%.0 ./&5- .3&62 Lmmbkebfibo 9l 8OF7K K7DBI iXogbq mbocloi .2&-- 6%7rd%.0/5%Pbm%./ /2% 3-% .2% 3%7rd%.0 .0&/5 .4&.. JlodXk PqXkhbv HFJ8BOIV DOBBK8BODBO Rkabotq,Fk%Ifkb 6&-- 3%7rd%.00.%7rd%./ /1% 3/% .1% 2%7rd%.0 .0&5/ .4&.. FimbofXh 9XmfqXh II9 J7OV OLPP%DFI8BOQ rkabombocloi 5&-- 2%7rd%.0
/%7rd%.0 .1&/5 .4&/. 9OQ 9XmfqXh Dolrm HFOH IRAQHB klq oXqba .%7rd%.0.%7rd%.0 .1&25 .4&/. Tbhhp CXodl PbZrofqfbp! II9 M7RI IBGRBW rkabombocloi .%7rd%.00.%Grh%.0 .1&3- .4&35 JXufi Dolrm II9 OF9H PKVABO Yrv /4&-- .%7rd%.00-%Grh%.0 .3&/3 .4&35 7qhXkqfZ Bnrfqfbp IIM A7KFBI7 KBAF7IHLS7 lsbotbfdeq //&-- .%7rd%.0/6%Grh%.0 .3&2/ .4&35 7odrp ObpbXoZe 9lom 9EOFPQLMEBO DO7G7 Yrv /2&-- 0-%Grh%.0/3%Grh%.0 .3&16 .4&35 9obafq Prfppb JF9E7BI 8 BUPQBFK rkabombocloi .2&-- .4%Grh%.0/2%Grh%.0 .3&./ .4&35 BS7 Afibkpflkp 9O7FD PQBOIFKD pbhh 6%Grh%.0/1%Grh%.0 .2&6/ .4&35 JXZnrXofb IFW78BQE ARKK kbrqoXh .3&-- /.%JXv%.0/0%Grh%.0 .3&.- .4&35 OlYboq T& 8Xfoa 9l BOFH7 H J7P9EJBVBO kbrqoXh .6&-- .4%JXv%.0//%Grh%.0 .3&.0 .4&35 8XoZhXvp OL8BOQ P AO8RI bnrXhtbfdeq /-&-- .3%JXv%.0.6%Grh%.0 .3&02 .4&35 P M 9XmfqXh FN G7PLK 7P7BA7 elha .4&-- 6%7mo%.0.5%Grh%.0 .3&2- .4&35 8QFD II9 TFIIF7J COLEKELBCBO Yrv //&-- .1%JXo%.0.4%Grh%.0 .3&23 .4&35 R8P JF9E7BI 8FKBQQF pbhh .-&-- /5%CbY%.0.3%Grh%.0 .4&.0 .4&35.2%Grh%.0 .4&3/ .4&35./%Grh%.0 .4&24 .4&35..%Grh%.0 .4&34 .4&35.-%Grh%.0 .4&-5 .4&35
Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings
7rt RkT Bagg 9aSliiakTRodlkn sn 8mdSa RkT PRmcao 8mdSa
'1% '2% '2% '!% '!% %2% %1% 6%%4% '%% '1% '1%
3'% 3!% 3!%22% 22%
22%2!% 22%
15% 13% 11% 11%
%1% %2% %2%'2% '2% 0!% 03% 03% 02% 00% 0'% 0'%
)%
.)%
1)%
3)%
4)%
,))%
Ulyq(,. pbmq(,. lWq(,. kls(,. axW(,. gUks(,0 cxso(,0 jUop(,0 Uso(,0 jUf(,0 grfk(,0 grfi(,0
6ol
hbo O
bWlj
jbk
aUqfl
k
)
2
,)
,2
.)
.2
0)
02
1)
12 MofW
b
6rv Elia Pbii MofWb QUodbq MofWb
7mleamn PRmcao 8mdSa
)
2
,)
,2
.)
.2
0)
Abr
qpWe
b 6
Ukh
6rW
hfkd
eUj
Obp
bUoW
e D
olrm
Mfm
bo G
UccoU
v
Pqb
okb&
5db
b
HbU
We
Qbip
bv 5
asfp
lov
Dol
rm
6I
L 8
UmfqU
i IUo
hbqp
Jlo
qeWl
Upq O
bpbU
oWe
Dfic
loa
PbW
rofqf
bp
GMI
lodU
k
Lmm
bkeb
fjbo
8
l
Ilo
dUk
PqU
kibv
Fjmb
ofUi 8
UmfqU
i HH8
8O
Q 8
UmfqU
i Dol
rm
Tbi
ip C
Uodl
PbW
rofqf
bp& H
H8
IUu
fj D
olrm
HH8
5qiU
kqfW
Bnr
fqfbp
HHM
5od
rp O
bpbU
oWe
8lo
m
8ob
afq P
rfpp
b
BS
5 A
fjbk
pflk
p
IUW
nrUo
fb
OlV
boq T
( 6Uf
oa
8l
6Uo
WiUv
p
P
M 8
UmfqU
i FN
6QF
D H
H8
R6
P
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
20.08.2013
JC Penney Co Inc
Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution
Shares Outstanding (M) 219.3 United States 83.78%
Float 66.9% Switzerland 5.51%
Short Interest (M) 44.5 Germany 3.98%
Short Interest as % of Float 30.33% Britain 2.34%
Days to Cover Shorts 5.28 Unknown Country 1.00%
Institutional Ownership 117.47% Japan 0.67%
Retail Ownership -18.66% France 0.64%
Insider Ownership 1.18% Others 2.09%
Institutional Ownership Distribution
Investment Advisor 51.94%
Hedge Fund Manager 38.98%
Other 5.18%
Pension Fund (Erisa) 1.44%
Pricing data is in USD Others 2.47%
Top 20 Owners:
Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country
PERSHING SQUARE CAPI 39'075'771 0 516'581'693 17.74% 30.06.2013 13F UNITED STATES
PERSHING SQUARE CAPI 39'075'771 0 516'581'693 17.74% 12.08.2013 13D UNITED STATES
SOROS FUND MANAGEMEN 19'986'361 19'986'361 264'219'692 9.07% 30.06.2013 13F UNITED STATES
STATE STREET 17'782'597 0 235'085'932 8.07% 19.08.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES
SOROS FUND MANAGEMEN 17'386'361 0 229'847'692 7.89% 15.04.2013 13G UNITED STATES
PERRY CORP 16'000'000 4'000'000 211'520'000 7.26% 09.08.2013 13D UNITED STATES
UBS 14'884'131 32'056 196'768'212 6.76% 30.06.2013 ULT-AGG
VORNADO REALTY TRUST 13'400'000 -10'000'000 177'148'000 6.08% 05.03.2013 13D UNITED STATES
EVERCORE TRUST COMPA 11'187'093 139'108 147'893'369 5.08% 30.06.2013 13F UNITED STATES
DEUTSCHE BANK AG 9'966'099 1'356'458 131'751'829 4.52% 30.06.2013 ULT-AGG GERMANY
BLACKROCK 9'837'351 -2'187'626 130'049'780 4.47% 16.08.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES
VANGUARD GROUP INC 9'115'850 -134'813 120'511'537 4.14% 30.06.2013 13F UNITED STATES
GLENVIEW CAPITAL MAN 8'431'879 -1'122'418 111'469'440 3.83% 30.06.2013 13F UNITED STATES
TIGER CONSUMER MANAG 5'423'692 2'052'887 71'701'208 2.46% 30.06.2013 13F UNITED STATES
FMR LLC 4'652'940 -3'749'027 61'511'867 2.11% 30.06.2013 ULT-AGG BRITAIN
INVESCO LTD 2'511'624 2'192'702 33'203'669 1.14% 19.08.2013 ULT-AGG
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADV 2'166'962 -23'353 28'647'238 0.98% 30.06.2013 ULT-AGG
NORTHERN TRUST CORPO 2'007'493 538 26'539'057 0.91% 30.06.2013 13F UNITED STATES
BANK OF AMERICA CORP 1'723'847 -722'203 22'789'257 0.78% 30.06.2013 13F UNITED STATES
BANK OF NEW YORK MEL 1'647'707 70'480 21'782'687 0.75% 30.06.2013 13F UNITED STATES
Top 5 Insiders:
Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source
JOHNSON RONALD B 883'330 11'677'623 0.40% 27.01.2012 Form 4
KRAMER MICHAEL W 872'405 11'533'194 0.40% 05.12.2012 Form 4
TERUEL JAVIER G 168'278 556 2'224'635 0.08% 03.06.2013 Form 4
DHILLON JANET L 124'975 -17'134 1'652'170 0.06% 16.05.2013 Form 4
DASTUGUE MICHAEL P 104'319 -1'903 1'379'097 0.05% 16.03.2012 Form 4
Company Analysis - Ownership
Ownership Type
85%
14%1%
FkpqfqrqflkUi Ltkbopefm ObqUfi Ltkbopefm Fkpfabo Ltkbopefm
Geographic Ownership
83%
2%
4%
1%2%
1% 1%
6%
Rkfqba PqUqbp PtfqwboiUka DbojUkv6ofqUfk Rkhkltk 8lrkqov GUmUkCoUkWb Lqebop
Institutional Ownership
53%
5%
2%1%
39%
Fksbpqjbkq 5asfplo Ebadb Crka IUkUdbo LqeboMbkpflk Crka !BofpU% Lqebop
TOP 20 ALL
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
JC Penney Co Inc
Financial information is in USD (M)
Periodicity: 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14E 1/15E 1/16E
Income Statement
Revenue 32'347 17'786 18'096 18'781 19'903 19'860 18'486 17'556 17'759 17'260 12'985 12'329 13'263 14'049
- Cost of Goods Sold 22'573 11'166 11'107 11'405 12'078 12'189 11'571 10'646 10'799 11'042 8'919
Gross Income 9'774 6'620 6'989 7'376 7'825 7'671 6'915 6'910 6'960 6'218 4'066 3'938 4'688 5'216
- Selling, General & Admin Expenses 8'760 5'830 5'702 5'799 5'903 5'783 5'780 6'247 6'128 5'769 5'078
(Research & Dev Costs) 0 0 0 0 0
Operating Income 1'014 790 1'287 1'577 1'922 1'888 1'135 663 832 449 -1'012 -1'098 -383 -4
- Interest Expense 388 261 373 280 270 278 268 260 233 228 226
- Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
- Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) 42 -17 -91 -147 -140 -113 -43 0 18 450 298
Pretax Income 584 546 1'005 1'444 1'792 1'723 910 403 581 -229 -1'536 -1'361 -733 -353
- Income Tax Expense 213 182 348 467 658 618 343 154 203 -77 -551
Income Before XO Items 371 364 657 977 1'134 1'105 567 249 378 -152 -985
- Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax -34 1'292 133 -111 -19 -6 -5 -2 -11 0 0
- Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Diluted EPS Before XO Items 1.25 1.21 2.20 3.83 4.96 4.90 2.54 1.07 1.59 (0.70) (4.49)
Net Income Adjusted* 256 339 679 925 567 291 397 154 -766 -884 -487 -193
EPS Adjusted 0.95 1.21 2.31 3.63 2.54 1.25 1.67 0.70 (3.49) (3.85) (1.95) (0.67)
Dividends Per Share 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.72 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00
Payout Ratio % 46.8 47.5 23.3 12.8 14.6 16.1 31.3 74.5 50.3
Total Shares Outstanding 269 274 271 233 226 222 222 236 237 216 219
Diluted Shares Outstanding 293 297 307 255 232 225 223 233 238 217 219
EBITDA 1'681 1'184 1'646 1'949 2'311 2'314 1'604 1'158 1'343 967 -469 -491 178 603
*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.
Equivalent Estimates
Company Analysis - Financials I/IV
Fiscal Year
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
Periodicity: 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14E 1/15E 1/16E
Balance Sheet
Total Current Assets 8353 6513 8232 6702 6648 6751 6220 6652 6370 5081 3683
+ Cash & Near Cash Items 2'388 2'907 4'586 2'951 2'747 2'471 2'352 3'011 2'622 1'507 930
+ Short Term Investments 86 87 63 65 0 0 0 0 0
+ Accounts & Notes Receivable 705 233 274 270 263 430 0 0 0 0 0
+ Inventories 4'945 3'156 3'142 3'210 3'400 3'641 3'259 3'024 3'213 2'916 2'341
+ Other Current Assets 229 130 167 206 238 209 609 617 535 658 412
Total Long-Term Assets 9'514 11'787 5'895 5'759 6'025 7'558 5'791 5'929 6'672 6'343 6'098
+ Long Term Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gross Fixed Assets 8'154 5'637 5'607 5'845 6'277 7'178 7'806 8'058 8'085 8'141 8'233
Accumulated Depreciation 3'253 2'122 2'032 2'097 2'115 2'219 2'439 2'701 2'854 2'965 2'880
+ Net Fixed Assets 4'901 3'515 3'575 3'748 4'162 4'959 5'367 5'357 5'231 5'176 5'353
+ Other Long Term Assets 4'613 8'272 2'320 2'011 1'863 2'599 424 572 1'441 1'167 745
Total Current Liabilities 4'159 3'754 3'297 2'762 3'492 3'338 2'794 3'249 2'647 2'756 2'583
+ Accounts Payable 3'791 2'551 1'143 1'171 1'366 1'472 1'194 1'226 1'133 1'022 1'162
+ Short Term Borrowings 288 260 459 21 434 203 0 393 0 231 26
+ Other Short Term Liabilities 80 943 1'695 1'570 1'692 1'663 1'600 1'630 1'514 1'503 1'395
Total Long Term Liabilities 7'338 9'121 5'974 5'692 4'893 5'659 5'062 4'554 4'935 4'658 4'027
+ Long Term Borrowings 4'940 5'114 3'464 3'444 3'010 3'505 3'505 2'999 3'099 2'871 2'956
+ Other Long Term Borrowings 2'398 4'007 2'510 2'248 1'883 2'154 1'557 1'555 1'836 1'787 1'071
Total Liabilities 11'497 12'875 9'271 8'454 8'385 8'997 7'856 7'803 7'582 7'414 6'610
+ Long Preferred Equity 333 304 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+ Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+ Share Capital & APIC 3'423 3'531 4'176 3'479 3'542 3'564 3'610 3'985 4'043 3'807 3'909
+ Retained Earnings & Other Equity 2'614 1'590 680 528 746 1'748 545 793 1'417 203 -738
Total Shareholders Equity 6'370 5'425 4'856 4'007 4'288 5'312 4'155 4'778 5'460 4'010 3'171
Total Liabilities & Equity 17'867 18'300 14'127 12'461 12'673 14'309 12'011 12'581 13'042 11'424 9'781
Book Value Per Share 22.44 18.69 17.92 17.20 18.97 23.93 18.72 20.25 23.04 18.57 14.46 10.65 8.73 5.75
Tangible Book Value Per Share 12.04 18.54 17.76 17.20 18.97 23.93 18.72 20.25 23.04 18.57 14.46
Company Analysis - Financials II/IV
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
Periodicity: 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14E 1/15E 1/16E
Cash Flows
Net Income 405 -928 524 1'088 1'153 1'111 572 251 389 -152 -985 -905 -480 -239
+ Depreciation & Amortization 667 394 359 372 389 426 469 495 511 518 543
+ Other Non-Cash Adjustments 76 1'338 -879 58 -303 -69 35 439 8 313 -316
+ Changes in Non-Cash Capital 181 -56 315 -99 27 -211 81 388 -316 141 748
Cash From Operating Activities 1'329 748 319 1'419 1'266 1'257 1'157 1'573 592 820 -10
+ Disposal of Fixed Assets 0 0 20 26 13 13 14 15 526
+ Capital Expenditures -658 -373 -398 -535 -772 -1'243 -969 -600 -499 -634 -810 -860 -497 -412
+ Increase in Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+ Decrease in Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+ Other Investing Activities 38 120 4'437 127 -32 -25 -1 0 0 -251 -9
Cash From Investing Activities -620 -253 4'039 -408 -784 -1'242 -957 -587 -485 -870 -293
+ Dividends Paid -161 -160 -150 -131 -153 -174 -178 -183 -189 -178 -86
+ Change in Short Term Borrowings 25 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+ Increase in Long Term Borrowings 607 0 0 0 980 0 0 392 0 0
+ Decrease in Long Term Borrowings -939 -450 -856 -474 -21 -746 -203 -113 -693 0 -250
+ Increase in Capital Stocks 30 52 248 205 174 62 5 4 10 78 83
+ Decrease in Capital Stocks -30 -29 -1'901 -2'252 -750 -400 0 0 0 -900 0
+ Other Financing Activities 34 -14 8 -1 -8 -4 -35 -16 -65 -21
Cash From Financing Activities -1'041 25 -2'673 -2'644 -751 -286 -380 -327 -496 -1'065 -274
Net Changes in Cash -332 520 1'685 -1'633 -269 -271 -180 659 -389 -1'115 -577
Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) 671 375 -79 884 494 14 188 973 93 186 -820 -1'252 -481 -262
Free Cash Flow To Firm 917 549 165 1'073 665 192 355 1'134 245
Free Cash Flow To Equity -300 483 -1'251 410 493 274 -2 873 -194 201 -544
Free Cash Flow per Share 2.51 1.38 -0.28 3.49 2.16 0.06 0.85 4.19 0.39 0.86 -3.74
Company Analysis - Financials III/IV
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
Periodicity: 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14E 1/15E 1/16E
Ratio Analysis
Valuation Ratios
Price Earnings 15.5x 21.6x 18.3x 15.5x 17.5x 10.2x 6.7x 21.1x 18.8x 58.5x
EV to EBIT 8.2x 12.5x 8.2x 8.6x 10.2x 6.4x 4.3x 9.4x 9.8x 23.5x
EV to EBITDA 4.9x 8.3x 6.4x 7.0x 8.5x 5.2x 3.0x 5.4x 6.1x 10.9x 33.3x 9.8x
Price to Sales 0.2x 0.4x 0.6x 0.8x 1.0x 0.5x 0.2x 0.3x 0.4x 0.5x 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x
Price to Book 0.9x 1.4x 2.3x 3.3x 4.4x 2.0x 0.9x 1.2x 1.4x 2.2x 1.4x 1.2x 1.5x 2.3x
Dividend Yield 2.6% 1.9% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 1.6% 4.8% 3.2% 2.5% 1.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.2% 37.2% 38.6% 39.3% 39.3% 38.6% 37.4% 39.4% 39.2% 36.0% 31.3% 31.9% 35.3% 37.1%
EBITDA Margin 5.2% 6.7% 9.1% 10.4% 11.6% 11.7% 8.7% 6.6% 7.6% 5.6% -3.6% -4.0% 1.3% 4.3%
Operating Margin 3.1% 4.4% 7.1% 8.4% 9.7% 9.5% 6.1% 3.8% 4.7% 2.6% -7.8% -8.9% -2.9% 0.0%
Profit Margin 1.3% -5.2% 2.9% 5.8% 5.8% 5.6% 3.1% 1.4% 2.2% -0.9% -7.6% -7.2% -3.7% -1.4%
Return on Assets 2.3% -5.1% 3.2% 8.2% 9.2% 8.2% 4.3% 2.0% 3.0% -1.2% -9.3% -8.5% -4.5% -2.3%
Return on Equity 6.4% -17.1% 10.3% 24.6% 27.8% 23.1% 12.1% 5.6% 7.6% -3.2% -27.4% -32.0% -28.4% -22.6%
Leverage & Coverage Ratios
Current Ratio 2.01 1.73 2.50 2.43 1.90 2.02 2.23 2.05 2.41 1.84 1.43
Quick Ratio 0.76 0.86 1.49 1.19 0.86 0.87 0.84 0.93 0.99 0.55 0.36
Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) 2.61 3.03 3.44 5.59 6.99 6.56 4.08 2.51 3.57 1.97 -4.48
Tot Debt/Capital 0.45 0.50 0.45 0.46 0.45 0.41 0.46 0.42 0.36 0.44 0.48
Tot Debt/Equity 0.82 0.99 0.81 0.86 0.80 0.70 0.84 0.71 0.57 0.77 0.94
Others
Asset Turnover 1.80 0.98 1.12 1.41 1.58 1.47 1.40 1.43 1.39 1.41 1.22
Accounts Receivable Turnover 46.11 37.92 71.38 69.05 74.68 57.32 85.98
Accounts Payable Turnover 6.23 2.96 6.01 9.92 9.67 8.76 8.39 8.60 9.32 9.97 7.64
Inventory Turnover 4.57 2.76 3.53 3.59 3.65 3.46 3.35 3.39 3.46 3.60 3.39
Effective Tax Rate 36.5% 33.3% 34.6% 32.3% 36.7% 35.9% 37.7% 38.2% 34.9%
Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
J.C. PENNEY CO MACY'S INC KOHLS CORP NORDSTROM INCWAL-MART
STORESTARGET CORP SEARS HOLDINGS SAKS INC
COSTCO
WHOLESALEGAP INC/THE DILLARDS INC-A TJX COS INC ROSS STORES INC BON-TON STORES
BED BATH
&BEYOND
01/2013 01/2013 01/2013 01/2013 01/2013 01/2013 01/2013 01/2013 08/2012 01/2013 01/2013 01/2013 01/2013 01/2013 02/2013
32.52 50.77 55.25 63.34 79.96 73.50 68.77 17.51 120.20 46.56 94.86 54.29 70.82 22.68 78.25
19.09.2012 09.07.2013 01.11.2012 11.07.2013 15.05.2013 24.07.2013 06.11.2012 19.07.2013 05.08.2013 02.08.2013 22.05.2013 05.08.2013 20.08.2012 28.05.2013 06.08.2013
12.34 36.30 41.35 50.94 67.37 58.01 38.40 9.24 87.33 29.84 67.66 40.08 52.01 6.58 54.33
09.08.2013 26.12.2012 03.01.2013 26.12.2012 31.12.2012 02.01.2013 28.12.2012 13.11.2012 15.11.2012 28.12.2012 28.09.2012 09.11.2012 27.12.2012 20.08.2012 20.12.2012
2'600'707 4'554'457 2'778'043 1'806'511 5'364'944 3'870'238 1'581'405 1'786'390 1'260'770 3'359'999 1'372'548 4'306'580 2'134'613 192'597 1'438'636
13.22 44.95 51.56 56.26 73.58 68.24 40.12 15.97 112.08 42.59 79.00 50.75 65.18 14.26 73.26
-59.3% -11.5% -6.7% -11.2% -8.0% -7.2% -41.7% -8.8% -6.8% -8.5% -16.7% -6.5% -8.0% -37.1% -6.4%
7.1% 23.8% 24.7% 10.4% 9.2% 17.6% 4.5% 72.8% 28.3% 42.7% 16.8% 26.6% 25.3% 116.7% 34.8%
219.3 387.7 222.0 197.0 3'314.0 645.3 106.0 149.7 432.4 463.0 47.8 723.9 220.7 20.1 221.5
2'912 16'987 11'419 11'008 241'098 43'790 4'269 2'398 48'944 19'919 3'659 36'528 14'253 290 15'954
2'982.0 6'930.0 4'553.0 3'131.0 54'136.0 17'648.0 3'120.0 359.6 1'382.0 1'246.0 824.0 774.6 150.0 901.2 -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - 5'395.0 - 417.0 - 157.0 - - - - - -
930.0 1'836.0 537.0 1'285.0 7'781.0 784.0 609.0 80.4 4'854.0 1'510.0 124.1 2'047.8 647.8 7.9 1'014.9
5'917 22'477 15'414 13'002 294'332 56'185 7'956 2'730 47'496 19'556 4'168 35'575 13'688 1'199 15'032
LFY 12'985.0 27'686.0 19'279.0 12'148.0 469'162.0 73'301.0 39'854.0 3'147.6 99'137.0 15'651.0 6'751.6 25'878.4 9'721.1 2'978.8 10'914.6
LTM 12'468.0 27'878.0 19'320.0 12'455.0 472'980.0 73'140.0 39'036.0 3'190.9 104'887.0 15'893.0 6'746.6 26'269.9 9'904.1 2'986.4 11'308.4
CY+1 12'329.4 28'132.8 19'281.0 12'579.9 481'963.8 74'788.9 37'204.7 3'247.2 105'652.7 16'355.0 6'716.5 27'313.2 10'314.7 3'015.0 11'651.6
CY+2 13'263.2 28'996.4 19'631.0 13'657.4 503'440.3 79'256.3 36'395.3 3'401.1 114'885.3 17'114.3 6'857.3 29'179.8 11'029.4 3'093.0 12'272.7
LFY 0.5x 0.9x 0.8x 1.2x 0.7x 0.8x 0.2x 0.9x 0.5x 1.1x 0.7x 1.3x 1.4x 0.4x 1.3x
LTM 0.5x 0.9x 0.8x 1.1x 0.7x 0.8x 0.2x 0.9x 0.4x 1.1x 0.7x 1.3x 1.4x 0.4x 1.2x
CY+1 0.5x 0.8x 0.8x 1.0x 0.6x 0.8x 0.2x 0.8x 0.5x 1.2x 0.7x 1.3x 1.3x 0.4x 1.3x
CY+2 0.5x 0.7x 0.8x 0.9x 0.6x 0.7x 0.2x 0.8x 0.4x 1.1x 0.6x 1.2x 1.3x 0.4x 1.2x
LFY (469.0) 3'715.0 2'723.0 1'774.0 36'302.0 7'352.0 (146.0) 271.1 3'667.0 2'501.0 800.1 3'615.5 1'457.2 164.1 1'832.9
LTM (722.0) 3'730.0 2'740.0 1'827.0 36'650.0 7'092.0 (330.0) 214.8 3'991.0 2'631.0 834.7 3'665.9 1'502.1 173.8 1'851.9
CY+1 (491.3) 3'775.8 2'719.2 1'790.8 37'665.8 7'267.7 248.5 246.9 4'048.3 2'646.7 851.3 3'897.4 1'587.1 195.0 1'923.5
CY+2 177.5 3'942.1 2'781.9 1'938.9 39'417.4 8'055.9 483.5 277.7 4'524.9 2'857.9 862.3 4'268.0 1'742.5 213.0 2'039.2
LFY -14.5x 6.5x 5.8x 8.0x 8.5x 7.8x -62.6x 10.2x 12.7x 7.1x 6.0x 9.6x 9.5x 7.4x 7.6x
LTM - 6.5x 5.8x 7.7x 8.4x 8.1x - 12.8x 11.7x 6.7x 5.7x 9.5x 9.2x 7.0x 7.5x
CY+1 - 5.8x 5.5x 7.2x 7.8x 7.8x 31.2x 10.5x 12.0x 7.3x 5.1x 9.1x 8.7x 6.0x 8.0x
CY+2 37.2x 5.4x 5.3x 6.6x 7.5x 7.1x 16.7x 9.4x 10.6x 6.5x 5.1x 8.2x 7.9x 5.3x 7.4x
LFY -3.49 3.46 4.17 3.56 5.02 4.36 2.26 0.46 3.94 2.33 5.00 2.55 3.53 -0.66 4.56
LTM -4.80 3.68 4.27 3.77 5.14 3.77 1.44 0.41 4.48 2.56 5.72 2.62 3.67 0.08 4.62
CY+1 (3.85) 3.86 4.26 3.69 5.23 4.75 (4.80) 0.38 4.57 2.78 7.33 2.82 3.89 0.70 5.02
CY+2 (1.95) 4.40 4.68 4.12 5.75 5.40 (4.06) 0.49 5.05 3.07 7.96 3.19 4.38 1.54 5.61
LFY - 12.2x 12.1x 14.9x 14.3x 18.1x 27.9x 39.0x 25.0x 16.6x 13.8x 19.4x 17.8x 178.3x 15.9x
LTM - 12.2x 12.1x 14.9x 14.3x 18.1x 27.9x 39.0x 25.0x 16.6x 13.8x 19.4x 17.8x 178.3x 15.9x
CY+1 - 11.6x 12.1x 15.3x 14.1x 14.4x - 42.5x 24.5x 15.3x 10.8x 18.0x 16.7x 20.4x 14.6x
CY+2 - 10.2x 11.0x 13.7x 12.8x 12.6x - 32.7x 22.2x 13.9x 9.9x 15.9x 14.9x 9.3x 13.1x
1 Year (24.8%) 4.9% 2.5% 11.7% 5.0% 4.9% (4.1%) 4.4% 11.5% 7.6% 5.4% 11.6% 12.9% 0.9% 14.9%
5 Year (8.2%) 1.4% 2.9% 6.5% 2.7% 2.5% (5.2%) 1.9% 7.9% 2.1% (1.5%) 7.7% 10.3% (1.7%) 9.8%
1 Year - 7.0% (7.3%) 9.5% 4.7% (1.4%) (131.7%) (2.1%) 11.0% 28.7% 17.5% 23.3% 19.1% (0.8%) 4.6%
5 Year - 1.9% 3.8% 3.9% 5.1% 1.2% - 2.3% 10.9% 6.1% 11.7% 13.9% 21.9% (8.5%) 13.0%
LTM (5.8%) 13.4% 14.2% 14.7% 7.7% 9.7% (0.8%) 6.7% 3.8% 16.6% 12.4% 14.0% 15.2% 5.8% 16.4%
CY+1 (4.0%) 13.4% 14.1% 14.2% 7.8% 9.7% 0.7% 7.6% 3.8% 16.2% 12.7% 14.3% 15.4% 6.5% 16.5%
CY+2 1.3% 13.6% 14.2% 14.2% 7.8% 10.2% 1.3% 8.2% 3.9% 16.7% 12.6% 14.6% 15.8% 6.9% 16.6%
Total Debt / Equity % 94.0% 114.5% 75.3% 163.7% 70.9% 106.6% 113.2% 31.3% 11.2% 43.1% 41.8% 21.1% 8.5% 814.7% 0.0%
Total Debt / Capital % 48.5% 53.4% 42.9% 62.1% 39.8% 51.6% 49.6% 23.8% 9.9% 30.1% 29.5% 17.4% 7.8% 89.1% 0.0%
Total Debt / EBITDA - 1.854x 1.674x 1.709x 1.561x 2.004x - 1.591x 1.225x 0.474x 0.746x 0.348x 0.100x 5.283x 0.000x
Net Debt / EBITDA - 1.472x 1.458x 1.091x 1.315x 1.748x - 1.544x -0.407x -0.138x 0.610x -0.260x -0.376x 5.231x -0.498x
EBITDA / Int. Expense -2.075x 8.443x 8.227x 10.951x 15.614x 9.499x -0.545x 6.916x 34.924x 28.747x 11.267x 64.181x 127.750x 1.968x 436.416x
S&P LT Credit Rating CCC+ BBB BBB+ A- AA A+ CCC+ BB *- A+ BBB- BB+ A A- B- BBB+
S&P LT Credit Rating Date 28.02.2013 10.04.2012 20.09.2007 03.02.2011 09.07.1999 20.11.2007 05.01.2012 22.07.2013 28.11.2012 10.05.2013 12.03.2013 18.09.2002 12.06.2013 10.01.2012 30.06.2011
Moody's LT Credit Rating - Baa3 Baa1 Baa1 Aa2 A2 - Ba3 A1 Baa3 Ba3 A3 - Caa2 -
Moody's LT Credit Rating Date - 09.01.2012 24.09.2007 11.02.2011 06.03.1996 27.11.2007 - 15.04.2013 26.03.2012 07.04.2011 04.04.2013 17.09.1998 - 13.05.2013 -
52-Week High Date
52-Week Low
Latest Fiscal Year:
52-Week High
Total Debt
Market Capitalization
Daily Volume
52-Week Low % Change
Current Price (8/dd/yy)
52-Week High % Change
Cash and Equivalents
EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
Enterprise Value
Valuation
Preferred Stock
52-Week Low Date
Minority Interest
Total Common Shares (M)
P/E
Revenue Growth
Total Revenue
EV/Total Revenue
EPS
EBITDA Growth
EBITDA Margin
Credit Ratings
Leverage/Coverage Ratios
Company Analysis - Peers Comparision
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
