Financial Analysis - CSR Corp ltd. provides a wide range of rolling stock p…

19.03.2013

Ticker: CSR Corp Ltd Benchmark:

Currency: Shanghai: 601766, Currency: CNY SHANGHAI SE A SHARE INDX (SHASHR)

Sector: Industrials Industry: Machinery Year:

Telephone 86-10-5186-2188 Revenue (M) Business Segments in CNY Sales (M) Geographic Segments in CNY Sales (M)

Website www.csrgc.com.cn No of Employees MUs (Motor Vehicles) 20981 China 73411

Address No 16 Central W 4th Ring Road Haidian District Beijing, 100036 China Locomotives 17803 Overseas Market 6106

Share Price Performance in CNY New Businesses 11637

Price 4.34 1M Return -14.6% Freight Wagons (Trucks) 9692

52 Week High 5.24 6M Return 7.2% Rapid Transit Vehicles (Railways) 8217

52 Week Low 3.75 52 Wk Return -3.1% Passenger Carriages 6354

52 Wk Beta 1.12 YTD Return -12.5% Others (Wind Power Generation, Sale of Automobiles, Autoparts an4832

Credit Ratings

Bloomberg -

S&P - Date - Outlook -

Moody's - Date - Outlook -

Fitch - Date - Outlook -

Valuation Ratios

12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

P/E 27.5x 40.1x 35.4x 13.3x 14.8x 12.5x 10.3x

EV/EBIT 24.1x 29.8x 27.2x 10.3x - - -

EV/EBITDA 17.3x 20.6x 20.1x 8.1x 10.8x 9.0x 7.6x

P/S 1.1x 1.5x 1.4x 0.6x 0.7x 0.6x 0.5x

P/B 3.2x 3.9x 4.6x 2.3x 2.0x 1.8x 1.6x

Div Yield 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 4.2% 2.1% 2.4% 2.8%

Profitability Ratios %

12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Gross Margin 16.6 15.7 17.1 18.7 18.6 18.7 19.1

EBITDA Margin 7.9 7.2 7.7 9.2 8.2 8.6 8.7

Operating Margin 5.7 5.0 5.7 7.3 5.9 6.0 6.4

Profit Margin 3.9 3.7 3.9 4.9 4.6 4.7 4.9

Return on Assets 3.5 3.3 3.9 4.6 4.5 4.6 5.6

Return on Equity 13.6 10.1 13.8 18.5 14.7 14.9 16.2

Leverage and Coverage Ratios

12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11

Current Ratio 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Current Capitalization in CNY

Quick Ratio 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 11840.0

EBIT/Interest 4.4 8.4 10.4 5.4 Market Capitalization (M) 60085.6

Tot Debt/Capital 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 Cash and ST Investments (M) 10267.0

Tot Debt/Equity 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 Total Debt (M) 22593.2

Eff Tax Rate % 12.7 11.9 11.4 12.8 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0

LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0

Investments (M) 6201.2

Enterprise Value (M) 78613.0

CSR Corp Ltd provides a wide range of rolling stock products and services. The

Company's products include locomotives, passenger carriages, freight wagons, MUs,

rapid transit vehicles and key related components.

601766 CH

79'517

86'058

Company Analysis - Overview

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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

www.csrgc.com.cn

CSR Corp Ltd

Target price in CNY

Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date

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Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings

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19.03.2013

CSR Corp Ltd

Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution

Shares Outstanding (M) 11840.0 China 92.44%

Float 25.4% Unknown Country 6.23%

Short Interest (M) Hong Kong 0.92%

Short Interest as % of Float Switzerland 0.25%

Days to Cover Shorts South Korea 0.08%

Institutional Ownership 78.53% Luxembourg 0.06%

Retail Ownership 21.46% Japan 0.01%

Insider Ownership 0.01% Others 0.02%

Institutional Ownership Distribution

Government 83.88%

Investment Advisor 9.17%

Other 6.23%

Corporation 0.68%

Pricing data is in CNY Others 0.05%

Top 20 Owners:

Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country

CHINA SOUTH LOCOMOTI 7'788'288'985 471'000 33'801'174'195 66.12% 29.08.2012 EXCH CHINA

SOCIAL SECURITY FUND 479'465'300 0 2'080'879'402 4.07% 15.03.2012 EXCH CHINA

CHINA POST CORE GROW 150'750'000 0 654'255'000 1.28% 15.03.2012 EXCH n/a

CHINA POST & CAPITAL 140'346'558 -139'366'695 609'104'062 1.19% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CHINA

GREAT WALL FUND MANA 110'221'792 1'431'574 478'362'577 0.94% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CHINA

EFUND MGMT CO LTD 107'623'300 0 467'085'122 0.91% 15.03.2012 EXCH n/a

CHINA SOUTHERN FUND 107'157'072 -10'833'148 465'061'692 0.91% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CHINA

GREAT WALL BRAND STO 105'030'845 0 455'833'867 0.89% 15.03.2012 EXCH n/a

CHINA SOUTH LONG YUA 78'000'000 0 338'520'000 0.66% 15.03.2012 EXCH n/a

PENGHUA FUND MGMT CO 71'748'800 0 311'389'792 0.61% 15.03.2012 EXCH n/a

ANHUI INVESTMENT GRO 69'506'700 0 301'659'078 0.59% 15.03.2012 EXCH HONG KONG

HARVEST FUND MGMT CO 67'264'500 0 291'927'930 0.57% 15.03.2012 EXCH n/a

CHINA NATIONAL MACHI 67'264'500 0 291'927'930 0.57% 15.03.2012 EXCH CHINA

CH RAILWAY MATERIALS 67'264'500 0 291'927'930 0.57% 15.03.2012 EXCH CHINA

CHINA ASSET MANAGEME 57'202'756 -15'271'235 248'259'961 0.49% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CHINA

YINHUA FUND MANAGEME 52'197'813 36'388'032 226'538'508 0.44% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CHINA

CHANGSHENG FUND MANA 38'531'338 21'594'753 167'226'007 0.33% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CHINA

AEGON-INDUST FUND MG 38'116'500 0 165'425'610 0.32% 15.03.2012 EXCH n/a

E FUND MANAGEMENT 34'651'703 10'270'194 150'388'391 0.29% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CHINA

CHINA MERCHANTS FUND 33'632'200 0 145'963'748 0.29% 15.03.2012 EXCH CHINA

Top 5 Insiders:

Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source

XIAOGANG ZHAO 80'000 347'200 0.00% 12.08.2011 EXCH

CHANGHONG ZHENG 60'000 260'400 0.00% 12.08.2011 EXCH

JUN ZHANG 50'000 217'000 0.00% 15.08.2011 EXCH

YANJING ZHAN 50'000 217'000 0.00% 15.08.2011 EXCH

HUALONG LIU 50'000 217'000 0.00% 12.08.2011 EXCH

Company Analysis - Ownership

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TOP 20 ALL


CSR Corp Ltd

Financial information is in CNY (M)

Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Income Statement

Revenue 19'785 23'047 26'804 35'093 45'621 64'132 79'517 88'280 102'099 119'347

- Cost of Goods Sold 17'095 19'803 22'785 29'279 38'454 53'145 64'647

Gross Income 2'690 3'244 4'019 5'814 7'167 10'987 14'870 16'435 19'074 22'829

- Selling, General & Admin Expenses 2'107 2'411 3'335 4'227 5'470 7'914 9'845

(Research & Dev Costs) 248 329 479 935 1'680 2'443 2'927

Operating Income 692 923 973 1'995 2'280 3'659 5'772 5'169 6'170 7'677

- Interest Expense 190 295 314 431 265 318 994

- Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) -6 3 26 -98 -6 66 4

- Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) -86 -88 -315 -269 -379 -385 -667

Pretax Income 594 712 948 1'931 2'401 3'660 5'442 5'651 6'712 8'328

- Income Tax Expense 99 70 73 245 285 416 699

Income Before XO Items 495 642 875 1'686 2'116 3'244 4'743

- Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

- Minority Interests 88 97 262 301 438 718 879

Diluted EPS Before XO Items 0.06 0.08 0.09 0.16 0.14 0.21 0.33

Net Income Adjusted* 1'384 1'678 2'531 3'864 4'059 4'807 5'833

EPS Adjusted 0.16 0.14 0.21 0.33 0.29 0.35 0.42

Dividends Per Share 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.18 0.09 0.11 0.12

Payout Ratio % 65.0 114.0 270.4 27.4 28.2 18.7 64.3 0.31 0.31 0.29

Total Shares Outstanding 7'000 11'840 11'840 11'840 11'840

Diluted Shares Outstanding 6'900 6'900 6'900 8'800 11'840 11'840 11'841

EBITDA 1'244 1'537 1'692 2'788 3'294 4'944 7'310 7'280 8'767 10'369

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.

Equivalent Estimates

Company Analysis - Financials I/IV

Fiscal Year


Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Balance Sheet

Total Current Assets 13794.2744 16956.8711 21791.4219 31087.6934 36686.8164 50277.749 63607.344

+ Cash & Near Cash Items 2'888 5'321 7'792 11'065 11'273 13'782 23'092

+ Short Term Investments 0 0 0 100 24 18 12

+ Accounts & Notes Receivable 4'627 3'851 4'508 6'395 7'637 12'900 17'891

+ Inventories 4'397 5'293 5'840 8'389 11'415 17'794 17'842

+ Other Current Assets 1'883 2'492 3'652 5'138 6'337 5'785 4'770

Total Long-Term Assets 8'622 9'387 10'899 14'429 18'552 23'483 29'179

+ Long Term Investments 82 109 82 31 31 26 271

Gross Fixed Assets 11'371 12'472 13'730 17'766 22'103 27'127 32'979

Accumulated Depreciation 3'776 4'148 3'859 4'411 5'124 6'048 7'200

+ Net Fixed Assets 7'595 8'324 9'872 13'354 16'979 21'079 25'778

+ Other Long Term Assets 945 955 945 1'044 1'541 2'378 3'129

Total Current Liabilities 15'074 16'079 21'683 23'652 30'067 42'815 59'185

+ Accounts Payable 5'119 5'881 6'230 8'415 13'676 18'044 21'239

+ Short Term Borrowings 5'160 5'131 7'891 6'874 8'064 12'738 24'716

+ Other Short Term Liabilities 4'796 5'067 7'562 8'363 8'326 12'032 13'230

Total Long Term Liabilities 4'223 4'881 4'627 3'222 4'851 7'077 5'514

+ Long Term Borrowings 1'353 2'180 2'086 7 2'184 4'204 2'325

+ Other Long Term Borrowings 2'870 2'701 2'541 3'214 2'667 2'873 3'188

Total Liabilities 19'297 20'960 26'310 26'874 34'917 49'892 64'698

+ Long Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

+ Minority Interest 521 1'923 2'070 2'621 2'991 4'601 5'526

+ Share Capital & APIC 0 0 7'000 11'840 11'840 11'840 11'840

+ Retained Earnings & Other Equity 2'599 3'461 -2'689 4'181 5'490 7'428 10'722

Total Shareholders Equity 3'120 5'384 6'381 18'643 20'321 23'869 28'088

Total Liabilities & Equity 22'417 26'344 32'691 45'516 55'238 73'761 92'786

Book Value Per Share 0.62 1.35 1.46 1.63 1.91 2.18 2.44 2.74

Tangible Book Value Per Share 0.57 1.32 1.42 1.59 1.86

Company Analysis - Financials II/IV


Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Cash Flows

Net Income 407 545 613 1'384 1'678 2'526 3'864 4'086 4'832 5'863

+ Depreciation & Amortization 552 614 718 793 1'013 1'285 1'538

+ Other Non-Cash Adjustments 227 237 185 -24 139 703 950

+ Changes in Non-Cash Capital -821 47 -325 -1'178 1'310 -846 -66

Cash From Operating Activities 365 1'443 1'191 975 4'140 3'668 6'286

+ Disposal of Fixed Assets 422 329 302 91 82 155 161

+ Capital Expenditures -1'512 -1'419 -1'735 -3'873 -4'611 -5'718 -6'099 -5'300 -5'050 -4'800

+ Increase in Investments -3 -60 -4 -3 0 -1 -331

+ Decrease in Investments 5 13 53 37 7 3 2

+ Other Investing Activities -239 -41 -995 637 -23 -319 -1'588

Cash From Investing Activities -1'326 -1'178 -2'379 -3'111 -4'545 -5'881 -7'855

+ Dividends Paid -274 -341 -1'031 0 0 0 -474

+ Change in Short Term Borrowings

+ Increase in Long Term Borrowings 7'496 11'070 10'922 10'405 15'577 12'058 39'201

+ Decrease in Long Term Borrowings -5'529 -10'678 -7'087 -14'427 -16'643 -7'428 -28'896

+ Increase in Capital Stocks 0 2'087 100 10'377 0 0 0

+ Decrease in Capital Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

+ Other Financing Activities 22 138 -124 -85 1'436 285 -6

Cash From Financing Activities 1'715 2'276 2'780 6'270 370 4'916 9'826

Net Changes in Cash 754 2'541 1'592 4'133 -35 2'704 8'257

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) -1'147 24 -544 -2'898 -471 -2'050 188 -363 1'403 4'352

Free Cash Flow To Firm -988 290 -254 -2'522 -238 -1'768 1'054

Free Cash Flow To Equity 744 3'592 -6'829 -1'455 2'735 10'653

Free Cash Flow per Share -0.17 0.00 -0.08 -0.33 -0.04 -0.17 0.02

Company Analysis - Financials III/IV


Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Ratio Analysis

Valuation Ratios

Price Earnings 27.5x 40.1x 35.4x 13.3x 14.8x 12.5x 10.3x

EV to EBIT 24.1x 29.8x 27.2x 10.3x

EV to EBITDA 17.3x 20.6x 20.1x 8.1x 10.8x 9.0x 7.6x

Price to Sales 1.1x 1.5x 1.4x 0.6x 0.7x 0.6x 0.5x

Price to Book 3.2x 3.9x 4.6x 2.3x 2.0x 1.8x 1.6x

Dividend Yield 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 4.2% 2.1% 2.4% 2.8%

Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin 13.6% 14.1% 15.0% 16.6% 15.7% 17.1% 18.7% 18.6% 18.7% 19.1%

EBITDA Margin 6.3% 6.7% 6.3% 7.9% 7.2% 7.7% 9.2% 8.2% 8.6% 8.7%

Operating Margin 3.5% 4.0% 3.6% 5.7% 5.0% 5.7% 7.3% 5.9% 6.0% 6.4%

Profit Margin 2.1% 2.4% 2.3% 3.9% 3.7% 3.9% 4.9% 4.6% 4.7% 4.9%

Return on Assets 2.2% 2.1% 3.5% 3.3% 3.9% 4.6% 4.5% 4.6% 5.6%

Return on Equity 18.0% 15.8% 13.6% 10.1% 13.8% 18.5% 14.7% 14.9% 16.2%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios

Current Ratio 0.92 1.05 1.01 1.31 1.22 1.17 1.07

Quick Ratio 0.50 0.57 0.57 0.74 0.63 0.62 0.69

Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) 3.28 3.03 3.09 4.36 8.40 10.39 5.44

Tot Debt/Capital 0.68 0.58 0.61 0.27 0.34 0.42 0.49

Tot Debt/Equity 2.09 1.36 1.56 0.37 0.50 0.71 0.96

Others

Asset Turnover 0.95 0.91 0.90 0.91 0.99 0.95

Accounts Receivable Turnover 5.44 6.41 6.44 6.50 6.25 5.16

Accounts Payable Turnover 3.76 3.85 4.35 3.76 3.75 3.29

Inventory Turnover 4.09 4.09 4.12 3.88 3.64 3.63

Effective Tax Rate 16.7% 9.9% 7.7% 12.7% 11.9% 11.4% 12.8%

Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV


CSR CORP LTD -A CHINA RAIL CN-H ZHUZHOU CSR CHINA RAIL GR-HCHINA COM CONS-

H

12/2011 12/2011 12/2011 12/2011 12/2011

5.24 9.54 30.25 4.98 8.43

05.02.2013 15.01.2013 02.01.2013 10.01.2013 23.01.2013

3.75 4.81 16.38 2.48 5.75

27.09.2012 30.03.2012 26.07.2012 30.03.2012 05.09.2012

22'807'447 7'563'500 4'094'776 16'696'500 12'782'070

4.34 7.26 22.90 3.88 6.69

-17.2% -23.9% -24.3% -22.1% -20.6%

15.7% 50.9% 39.8% 56.5% 16.3%

11'840.0 12'337.5 1'084.3 21'299.9 14'825.0

60'086 80'925 24'829 77'358 97'967

27'040.8 100'663.6 647.9 130'576.0 106'045.0

- - - - -

5'526.3 970.4 121.0 9'330.0 10'739.0

23'104.3 80'520.6 2'158.8 60'314.0 45'170.0

78'613 75'858 19'911 183'801 154'418

LFY 79'517.0 443'319.3 7'079.1 442'216.0 294'281.0

LTM 81'803.7 417'448.9 7'079.1 418'599.0 280'093.0

CY+1 88'279.7 467'694.0 6'545.9 459'520.7 295'062.1

CY+2 102'099.0 508'533.0 8'114.9 502'956.7 329'738.3

LFY 1.0x 0.2x 1.9x 0.4x 0.6x

LTM 1.0x 0.2x 1.9x 0.4x 0.6x

CY+1 0.6x 0.2x 2.9x 0.3x 0.6x

CY+2 0.5x 0.2x 2.3x 0.3x 0.5x

LFY 7'310.0 21'822.9 1'402.0 18'977.0 21'465.0

LTM 7'352.0 22'290.2 1'402.0 19'609.0 22'252.0

CY+1 7'279.8 22'322.3 1'253.8 18'794.1 24'549.0

CY+2 8'766.7 24'268.5 1'604.2 20'996.6 27'984.5

LFY 11.0x 3.7x 9.7x 8.5x 7.7x

LTM 11.0x 3.6x 9.7x 8.2x 7.4x

CY+1 7.6x 3.8x 14.9x 8.2x 6.6x

CY+2 6.4x 3.7x 11.5x 7.5x 6.3x

LFY 0.33 0.68 1.09 0.32 0.76

LTM 0.31 0.61 1.09 0.31 0.72

CY+1 0.29 0.67 0.89 0.33 0.71

CY+2 0.35 0.74 1.18 0.38 0.79

LFY 14.2x 9.5x 16.8x 10.1x 7.4x

LTM - - 16.8x 9.8x 7.8x

CY+1 14.8x 8.7x 20.5x 9.4x 7.5x

CY+2 12.5x 7.9x 15.5x 8.3x 6.8x

1 Year 24.0% (2.8%) 21.4% (3.1%) 7.9%

5 Year 28.5% - 42.8% 23.0% 17.3%

1 Year 47.9% 51.3% 10.7% 20.9% 16.8%

5 Year 36.6% 34.4% 33.9% 26.7% 21.2%

LTM 9.0% 5.3% 19.8% 4.7% 7.9%

CY+1 8.2% 4.8% 19.2% 4.1% 8.3%

CY+2 8.6% 4.8% 19.8% 4.2% 8.5%

Total Debt / Equity % 119.9% 155.5% 12.2% 181.7% 151.0% FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Total Debt / Capital % 49.1% 60.5% 10.6% 61.7% 56.7% FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Total Debt / EBITDA 3.136x 4.627x 0.462x 7.676x 5.938x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Net Debt / EBITDA 1.478x 1.024x -1.078x 4.897x 3.353x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

EBITDA / Int. Expense 6.888x 5.926x 42.973x 2.989x 4.776x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

S&P LT Credit Rating - - - BBB+ - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

S&P LT Credit Rating Date - - - 23.01.2013 - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Moody's LT Credit Rating - - - - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Moody's LT Credit Rating Date - - - - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

52-Week High Date

52-Week Low

Latest Fiscal Year:

52-Week High

Total Debt

Market Capitalization

Daily Volume

52-Week Low % Change

Current Price (3/dd/yy)

52-Week High % Change

Cash and Equivalents

EBITDA

EV/EBITDA

Enterprise Value

Valuation

Preferred Stock

52-Week Low Date

Minority Interest

Total Common Shares (M)

P/E

Revenue Growth

Total Revenue

EV/Total Revenue

EPS

EBITDA Growth

EBITDA Margin

Credit Ratings

Leverage/Coverage Ratios

Company Analysis - Peers Comparision


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