Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM...
-
Upload
marjorie-bates -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
0
Transcript of Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM...
![Page 1: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Final Project
Summary of Results &
Conclusions
![Page 2: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM
Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted ARM at nodes with targets
Head predictions are more robust (consistent among different calibrated models) than transport (particle tracking) predictions.
Observations
![Page 3: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Calibration Prediction
Group ARM h
ARM ET (x10e7)
ARM h (at targets)
ARM h(at pumping wells)*
1 1.16 0.20 2.87 5.02
2 0.8 0.52 1.81 2.27
3 1.18 0.47 2.73 12.77
4 2.39 0.78 0.80 0.76
5 2.07 1.10 1.61 2.61
6 0.96 0.48 2.13 2.90
7 0.92 0.96 1.18 0.92
8 0.50 0.60 3.70 2.71
9 0.054 0.0049 3.54 2.29
A good calibrationdoes not guaranteean accurate prediction.
A calibrated ARMof around 1 is a good calibration.
![Page 4: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Group P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7
1 5450 playa 2561 PW2 5060 playa 1098 PW4
401 PW4 1465 playa
1220 PW2
2 2120 PW2 606 PW2 709 playa 474 PW4
595 PW4 608 playa 310 PW3
3 5247 PW2 1088 PW2 1599 playa 361 PW4
510 PW4 2317 PW1
2243 playa
4 6601 playa 1226 PW2 592 playa 623 PW4
846 PW4 968 playa 1194 PW2
5 4548 playa 1660 PW2 1513 playa 1412 PW4
744 PW4 817 PW1 4410 playa
6 1.20E5 PW5
820 PW2 1.82 E4 PW5 587 PW4
576 PW4 1.19 E5 PW5
9990 PW5
7 4083 playa 1039 PW2 618 playa 647 PW4
629 PW4 908 playa 2484 PW2
8 2810 PW2 986 PW2 752 playa 659 PW4
577 PW4 359 PW1 502 PW3
9 546 PW1 534 PW2 1156 playa 402 PW4
1121 playa
91 PW1 1170 PW2
Truth 672 PW1
549 PW2
1.25 E5 playa
359 PW4
650 PW4
238 PW1
1712 playa
Particle Tracking Resultstravel time (yr) & exit location
4
4
4
6
5
5
3
5
4
number of “hits”
![Page 5: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
To use conventional inverse models/parameter estimationmodels in calibration, you need to have a pretty good idea of zonation (of K, for example).
Also need to identify reasonable ranges for thecalibration parameters.
(New version of PEST with pilot points does not need zonation as it works with continuous distribution of parameter values.)
![Page 6: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
K distribution
Layer 1 Layer 2Layer 3
Note anisotropy
Kx/Kz1001011100
n0.20.20.30.40.3
Truth
![Page 7: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Truth Group 4 Group 7
Layer 1 - Zonation
![Page 8: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Truth Group 4 Group 7
Layer 1 - Zonation
Group 2
Hyd. Conductivity (ft/yr)
Kx & Ky Kz
7000 50
55000 30000
22000 11000
![Page 9: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Truth
Group 1
Layer 1 - Zonation
Group 6
![Page 10: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Truth
Group 1Group 5
Layer 1 - Zonation
Group 3Group 6
![Page 11: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Layers 2, 3layer 2
Truth layer 3
Group 7
Truth layer 2
layer 3
Group 4
![Page 12: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Leakance arrayRepresenting KV of confining bed
1 ft/day
10 ft/day
Truth
![Page 13: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
0.35 ft/yr
0.67 ft/yr
Recharge
Truth
![Page 14: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
ET – extinction depth
10 ft
15 ft
Truth
![Page 15: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Group P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7
1 5450 playa 2561 PW2 5060 playa 1098 PW4
401 PW4 1465 playa
1220 PW2
2 2120 PW2 606 PW2 709 playa 474 PW4
595 PW4 608 playa 310 PW3
3 5247 PW2 1088 PW2 1599 playa 361 PW4
510 PW4 2317 PW1
2243 playa
4 6601 playa 1226 PW2 592 playa 623 PW4
846 PW4 968 playa 1194 PW2
5 4548 playa 1660 PW2 1513 playa 1412 PW4
744 PW4 817 PW1 4410 playa
6 1.20E5 PW5
820 PW2 1.82 E4 PW5 587 PW4
576 PW4 1.19 E5 PW5
9990 PW5
7 4083 playa 1039 PW2 618 playa 647 PW4
629 PW4 908 playa 2484 PW2
8 2810 PW2 986 PW2 752 playa 659 PW4
577 PW4 359 PW1 502 PW3
9 546 PW1 534 PW2 1156 playa 402 PW4
1121 playa
91 PW1 1170 PW2
Truth 672 PW1
549 PW2
1.25 E5 playa
359 PW4
650 PW4
238 PW1
1712 playa
Particle Tracking Resultstravel time (yr) & exit location
4
4
4
6
5
5
3
5
4
number of “hits”
![Page 16: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
7
1
26
4
5
3
p31
p7
![Page 17: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Calibration Prediction
Group ARM h
ARM ET (x10e7)
ARM h (at targets)
ARM h(at pumping wells)*
1 1.16 0.20 2.87 5.02
2 0.8 0.52 1.81 2.27
3 1.18 0.47 2.73 12.77
4 2.39 0.78 0.80 0.76
5 2.07 1.10 1.61 2.61
6 0.96 0.48 2.13 2.90
7 0.92 0.96 1.18 0.92
8 0.50 0.60 3.70 2.71
9 0.054 0.0049 3.54 2.29
Calibration to ET doesn’t improve prediction for this problem
![Page 18: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Calibration to Fluxes
When recharge rate (R) is a calibration parameter, calibrating to fluxes can help in estimating K and/or R.
R was not a calibration parameter in our problem.
![Page 19: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
H1H2
q = KI
In this example, flux information helps calibrate K.
![Page 20: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
or discharge information helps calibrate R.
![Page 21: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
All water discharges to the playa.Calibration to ET merely fine tunesthe discharge rates within the playaarea. Calibration to ET does nothelp calibrate the heads and K valuesexcept in the immediate vicinityof the playa.
In our example, total recharge is known/assumed to be 7.14E08 ft3/year and discharge = recharge.
![Page 22: Final Project Summary of Results & Conclusions. Generally predicted ARM at targets > Calibrated ARM Generally, predicted ARM at pumping wells > Predicted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f185503460f94c2f5a4/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Conclusions
• Calibrations are non-unique.
• A good calibration (even if ARM = 0) does not ensure that the model will make good predictions.
• Need for an uncertainty analysis to accompany calibration results and predictions.
• You can never have enough field data.
• Modelers need to maintain a healthy skepticism about their results.