Final Project Gis 4048 Dwr6
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Transcript of Final Project Gis 4048 Dwr6
MAJOR HURRICANE LANDFALL STORM SURGE
ANALYSIS
St. John’s County, FloridaAnalysis of Historical Site Locations and Damage
Produced by David RennaGIS 4048/ Application in GIS 08/04/2010
Introduction
Hurricane Season: June 1 – Nov. 30 No major hurricane direct landfall Last direct landfall- Dora,1964 Cat.2 St. John’s County is oldest historic area in U.S. More historic sites in county than anywhere
else (4400) County economy dependent on tourism Tourism dependent on existence of historical
sites What would happen to historic sites if major
hurricane made direct landfall?
Study Area
St. John’s County, Florida
Located in North East Florida
Surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean to the East, Duval County to the North, Clay and Putnam Counties to the West and Flagler County to the South.
BackgroundSt. Augustine, Fl
America’s oldest town Founded in 1513 by Ponce de Leon
in an effort to find the exact location of the “Fountain of Youth”
Established in 1565 Spanish settlers have occupied area
for 500 years Spanish, British, French , and Indian
settlements battled over rights to these lands for 300 years
In the efforts of control of lands, hundreds of forts were built in times of war
Forts are displayed throughout St. John’s County
BackgroundSt. John’s County Historic Sites 163,000 Federal
applications for historic site designation
4400 designated sites used for this study
Historic sites are prime reason for tourism in St. John’s County.
Historic sites:1. forts2. churches3. schoolhouses 4. jails5. museums6. houses7. lighthouses
St. Augustine Cathedral
St. Augustine Lighthouse Dow Museum
Oldest Schoolhouse
BackgroundMajor Hurricane Direct Landfall
No major hurricane has ever made direct landfall in St. John’s County
Last Direct Landfall: Hurricane Dora, 1964, Category 2
Last East coast landfall of major hurricane Jeanne in 2004(S. Florida, Cat.3)
Major Hurricanes as designated by NOAA are Category 3 or greater
NOAA Saffir-Simpson Hurricane ScaleDesigned model at fas.org
Elevation Highest elevation in St. John’s
County~ 75 ft. More than 75% of historic sites in
areas considered to have low elevation and close proximity to water
Large concentrations of historic sites in St. Augustine historic downtown area in middle Eastern portion of county and in South West Region of St. John’s County
Smaller clusters of historic sites along St. John’s river, intracoastal waterway and along beaches
St. John’s County surrounded by water from St. John’s River to the West and the Atlantic ocean to the East
Downtown St. Augustine
Closer view of downtown St. Augustine
Thousands of historic structures in downtown alone
Almost all sites along waterways
Large cluster of historic structures in very small area
Flood AnalysisCategory 3 Hurricane
Percentage Flooded Lands
29.179% of total area flooded.
Historic sites within ~ 1.5-2 miles of coast all under water.
Historical sites along St. John’s river under water as arterial rivers and canals flood.
Downtown St. Augustine full engulfed.
Approximately half historic structures (over 2000) in county destroyed due to storm surge.
Flood AnalysisCategory 4 Hurricane
Percentage Flooded Lands
34.39% total area flooded Historic sites within ~ 2- 2.5
miles of coast under water All historic sites along St.
John’s river under water Additional flooding along
arterial rivers and canals moving Eastward and covering most areas of South West St. John’s County
Historic Downtown St. Augustine completely destroyed due to storm surge
Flooding moving West past US 1 and engulfing more than 70% of historic sites
Flood AnalysisCategory 5 Hurricane
Percentage Flooded Lands
47.23% total area flooded Historic sites within ~ 3-4
miles of coast under water All historic sites along St.
John’s River completely destroyed
Complete flooding of Western portion of St. John’s County
All arterial rivers and canals engulfed by rising waters
Nearly 90% of all historic sites destroyed in St. John’s County due to storm surge
Additional Wind DamageNOAA Guidelines
Category 3 Hurricane : 1. Poorly constructed frame homes destroyed by the removal of the roof
and exterior walls. 2. Unprotected windows will be broken by flying debris.3. Well-built frame homes can experience major damage due to roof
removal.
Category 4 Hurricane: 1. Poorly constructed and well-built homes can sustain complete collapse
of all walls as well as the loss of the roof structure. 2. Windborne debris damage will break most unprotected windows and
penetrate some protected windows.
Category 5 Hurricane: 1. A high percentage of frame homes will be destroyed, with total roof
failure and wall collapse. 2. Windborne debris damage will occur to nearly all unprotected windows
and many protected windows.
Results
Category 3: 1. 29% of total lands flooded 2. Historical site along coastline and along St. John’s River flooded. 3. Downtown St. Augustine under water. Nearly 50% all historical sites under
water. 4. Wind damage would also be substantial.
Category 4: 5. 34% of total lands flooded. 6. Historical sites within 2.5 miles of coast and St. John’s River flooded . 7. 70% of historical sites under water. 8. Wind damage at catastrophic levels.
Category 5:9. 47% of total lands flooded.10. Historical sites within 3.5 miles of coast line and along St. John’s River and
arterial canals completely destroyed.. 11. 90% of historical sites under water. 12. All structure completely destroyed by storm surge and wind damage.
Conclusion The importance of the historical sites to St. John’s County is
evident. The tourism due to these site is the only viable means of income
to this area. A hurricane of category 3 or higher would completely destroy
the economics of the area. All of the historical sites in St. John’s County would be destroyed. Hurricanes have traditionally remained well off our coast. It has
been a long time since St. John’s County has had a direct landfall.
Study shows the importance of readiness in the face of crisis. Due to results there is hope that local and government official
put more thought into protecting these structures. Perhaps new laws laying out formal plans to protect historical
structures in such an event are in our near future.
References Corbett, Theodore G. “Migration to a Spanish Imperial Frontier in the
Seventeenth and Eighteenth Centuries: St. Augustine” , The Hispanic American Historical Review, Volume 54. No. 3(August 1974), pp. 414-430.
Wolkomir, R. “in Search of St. Augustine”, The Smithsonian, Volume 32, No. 7 (October 2001). Pp. 114-120.
Historical Markers of Florida, Division of Historical Resources, Florida Historical Markers Program, Florida Heritiage.com, http://flheritage.com/preservation/markers/markers.cfm/ID-st.johns
NOAA Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, National Oceanic and Aviation Administration, http://www.fas.org
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Summary Table, National Oceanic and Aviation Administration, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/sshws_table.shtml
Data Sources:
St. John’s County Data Depot http://www.sjcfl.us/BCC/Land_Management/GIS/DataDepot.aspx
Florida Geographic Data Library http://www.fdgl.org/