Final eurodad agm 5.11.08 new economics foundation
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Transcript of Final eurodad agm 5.11.08 new economics foundation
The modern financial system
Eurodad AGM 2008
Sargon Nissannef (the new economics foundation)
Traditional function of the Financial System
• To transfer money from surplus to where there is a demand/need for it
• Banks are crucial to this process– Take in savings (Deposits)– Loan the deposits to firms & individuals at a
higher rate of interest
Government Intervention
Government control of the financial system, via:
• Interest rates– Reflect time value of money– Reflect risk of default (non-repayment)
• Fractional reserve banking – How much bank must held as proportion of deposits– $100 deposited in a bank with 20% fractional reserve
requirement increases money supply by $400
The birth of the modern financial system
Features of the post-BW system
Gradual end on the constraints of money creation
• Evolved from using a gold standard to $ pegs with a gold guarantee
• 1971 Nixon Shock– Gold link broken by Nixon due to domestic spending
and costs of Vietnam war
• Fiat money system– Money could be created without underlying asset
backing it
Bretton Woods-era gave way to freer flows of capital and floating exchange rates
• Volatility drastically increased– Contradicting expectations and orthodox economic
predictions
• Volatility created need to hedge against fluctuating prices– New markets in volatility-management tools: derivatives– Created marketplace for speculative profits and amplified the
use of these tools
• Assault on transparency– Vast majority of derivatives ‘OTC’ – over the counter and not
traded on exchanges– Created mechanism to avoid supervision or regulatory
oversight
Features of the post-BW system
New markets in derivatives allowed huge profit opportunities via speculation on price movements that were disconnected from real economic activity
Features of the post-BW system
The era of financialisation
Developed countries’ financial systems exploded relative to other parts of economy, particularly the role of banks
Climate of greater general indebtedness and increased gearing (debt to equity ratios)
• Financial assets and debts become larger proportion of GDP
• Banks strategically became focused upon commissions business and speculative operation
Financialisation
Bubbles• Debt being used to inflate value of assets against
which more debt is raised to re-start the cycle
Financial innovation/Derivatives• Also used to evade legislative oversight
– e.g. 1999 Amendment to US Community Reinvestment Act which excluded banks’ mortgage investment in securities from scrutiny – then sub-prime lending doubled from 2001 to 2006
Policy Blame• Ignored bubbles and stoked consumer spending
via indebtedness
Boom in mortgage lending, speculative price bubbles & Financial ‘innovation’
Real income levels did not follow growth
• Finance met gap in income levels
• Created climate for bubbles with loose monetary policy– US mortgages grew $2.1 to $3 trillion from
2001 to 2006– The proportion of that which was sub-prime
jumped from 8.6% to 20%
Financialisation
Key features of international financialisation
• Liberalisation of capital account
• Capital flows increasingly taking form of FDI and portfolio investment
• Inflation targeting priority over growth, jobs, health or other social outcomes to protect value of investment capital
Financialisation
• Costlier Short Term borrowing
• Domestic financialisation
• Exposure of Short Term obligations (debts that have to be repaid in short term) as borrowing has dried-up
• Export and trade demand
Implications for Developing Countries
The flow of money and the reserve currency“The exorbitant priviledge” (Giscard d’Estaing)
How does the money system reveal the challenges of reform?
GROUP EXERCISE
A Currency used as a reserve or store of wealth, as if it were an asset itself - the US Dollar
Source of wealth for whoever has the priviledge to issue that currency
• Un-cashed cheque at everyone else’s expense
• Permits deficit financing– Vietnam and Iraq wars– Current US bank bailout
An international reserve currency
No reserve currency has ever been permanent
• Drachma from 500 BC replaced by Roman aureus and denarius
Reserve currency reflects political power and authority
• Gold coins in Genoa and Florence from 13th Century, then usurped by Venetian ducato by 15th Century
Historic role of international currencies
Britain’s challenge to Dutch • guilder overtaken by sterling by 18th Century• Bank of England and Stock Exchange established
included vibrant foreign currency exchange
Stability of Britain’s economic strength • sterling retained position for 100+ years• By this point tokens (e.g. symbols of metallic value)
and receipts (bank notes) had become symbols of money and value, not actually holding value
Modern Era
• Limited gold restrained creation of money ‘tokens’
• Where gold was unavailable poorer countries began to hold financial assts convertible into gold
Gold Standard
Start of process of countries’ central banks holding foreign exchange reserves as part of normal practice
Nixon shock • Tension of the consequences of exploiting
reserve currency
– When world demanded gold for dollars, France, UK, Nixon ended Bretton Woods system Valerie Giscard d’Estaing “The exorbitant priviledge”
“Our currency but your problem”
End of Bretton Woods
Nixon shock • Tension of the consequences of exploiting
reserve currency
– When world demanded gold for dollars, France, UK, Nixon ended Bretton Woods system Valerie Giscard d’Estaing “The exorbitant priviledge”
“Our currency but your problem”
Who said this?
End of Bretton Woods
Operating a reserve currency brings costs
• Euro area lacks political will for unity and avoids promoting Euro as reserve
• Euro area not de-coupled, but connected, to US crisis
• Flight to quality is thus benefiting dollar – where else is there to go? For the moment
“The exorbitant priviledge” (Valerie Giscard d’Estaing)
China’s Dollar dependence
• Reserve accumulation over $1tn • Power to destabilise US financial system but
only at huge cost to itself• Not just China, but Brazil, India, Russia and
oil-exporting Gulf states all similarly attached to US situation
A globalised system – no winners
What will change this? Maybe the current crisis
• US domestic economy transformed, like 19th C UK, to financial services while neglecting exports, manufacture and jobs
• Weaker dollar needed to stimulate US economy but counter-balanced against damage it does to its ‘Faustian’ partners
• US lacks surpluses given its economic weakness to sustain strong dollar as reserve
No winners – for now
Assessing the impact on Developing Countries
Eurodad AGM 2008, section II
Sargon Nissannef (the new economics foundation)
Emerging Markets - 2008
• Severe losses in equity and bond markets• Corporate defaults in specific sectors, e.g.
construction and real estate• Local cost of funding much higher and
likely to remain so – limiting investment• Investment funds investing in EM debt
have suffered outflows• Economic expectations are for easing
inflation, growing current account deficits
Capital flows – still going uphill
Net capital flows have been negative due to reserve accumulation
2007China $1.5 trillionRussia $455 billionMid East $638 billionAfrica $145 billion
• Sterilisation of exchange pegs by purchase of US Treasuries
• Provides Insurance
Liberalisation’s Logic
• Increased investment
• Stability
• Better targeted investment (efficiency)
• Growth
Emerging Markets fuelling the crisis
Reserves from Current Account surpluses transferred into property bubble
• Exchange rate pegs are a crucial driver of reserve accumulation– Accounting for 75% of reserves accumulated
by DCs since 2002– Export expansion and import suppression, via
exchange rates
Emerging Markets fuelling the crisis
Countries also accumulate as self-insurance– Of reserves accumulated since 2002, 1/3
borrowed– India’s reserves 100% borrowed
Why?• Expensive but driven by desire to prevent
currency appreciation and deficits, plus provides a cushion against shocks
Vulnerability to the crisis
• Consider factors which impact sovereign financial autonomy
– Foreign banks’ involvement in Developing Countries (grown)
– FDI restrictions in banking sector– Asset share of bank assets by foreign banks– Reserve accumulation
• ‘Fluidity’ of flows– Net private inflows vs gross outflows– FDI outflows, including from ‘non-official’ sources
Vulnerability to the crisis - Risks
Financial contagion – Dropping stock markets, currency
pressure
• Trade
• Remittances
• FDI and portfolio investment
• Lending
• Aid
Vulnerability to the crisis
• Exporters to most affected countries (e.g. Mexico)
• Countries with exports tied closely to global demand levels, or high income elasticity (commodities or tourism)
• Countries with significant remittance flows
• Very open economies where investment biased to FDI or portfolio investment (e.g. South Africa)
• High current account deficit countries – – increasing pressure for devaluation and inflation, also
exacerbated by high government deficits (India)
Analysing Crisis Impact
Reliance on exports
Reliance on international finance– Some forms of reliance are inherently more
precarious, e.g. extent of FDI accounted for by portfolio flows, bank lending…
External penetration of the financial system– Home bias, lack of local knowledge, regulatory
power of domestic authority, capital flight risks
Analysing Crisis Impact - Trade
• Trade openness
• Current account balance
• Export focus (to whom?)– South-south links – Extent of presumed ‘decoupling’ – looks like
we’re all in it together
• Export vulnerability (Elasticity of demand for key exports)
Analysing Crisis ImpactReliance on international finance
Openness of capital account– Capital inflows, Bank flows, Portfolio flows as % of GDP
Domestic banking sector’s relative importance– % of domestic assets and liabilities in domestic banks’
portfolios, % of foreign currency denominated debt
Reserves – Reserves to GDP - Ability to offset foreign shortfalls
Currency denomination of foreign exchange reserves
Implications
Implications of Crisis Impact
Regulation and Governance
• Potential for renewed emphasis on bilateral forms of influence versus multilateral structures of negotiation, such as collective trade or finance rules– Altered regulatory regimes
• de jure (e.g. Basle II) • de facto (ratings agencies and other private actors)
– Risk of a technocratic approach being taken
Implications of Crisis Impact
Solidarity
• Different countries will be impacted differently, challenging in novel ways the capacity to develop a collective response from the South
• Vulnerability and agency (or lack of) reveal new cracks in collective bargaining positions
Implications of Crisis Impact
Institutional power
Potentially reinvigorating consequences for IMF and other BW institutions as political and economic actors.
Governance issue had waned as their significance and centrality contracted but could once again be a crucial component of any new settlement
Implications of Crisis Impact
Changing of the guard, not the system?
• New centres of financial power
• Too soon to proclaim the death of the old centres of finance?
• Will the name-plates change and nothing else?