Final Environmental Impact Statement - National … Environmental Impact Statement Corporate Average...

Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards

Passenger Cars and Light Trucks

Model Years 2017-2025

Final EnvironmentalImpact Statement

July 2012Docket No. NHTSA-2011-0056

Final Environmental Impact Statement Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards

Passenger Cars and Light Trucks Model Years 20172025

RESPONSIBLE AGENCY: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)

COOPERATING AGENCY: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

TITLE: Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards, Passenger Cars and Light Trucks, Model Years 20172025, Final Environmental Impact Statement

ABSTRACT: This Final Environmental Impact Statement (Final EIS) analyzes the environmental impacts of a range of alternative fuel economy standards, including a Preferred Alternative, for passenger cars and light trucks (light-duty vehicles) that NHTSA has proposed under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, as amended. Environmental impacts analyzed in this Final EIS include those related to fuel and energy use, air quality, and climate change. In developing the proposed Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, NHTSA considered technological feasibility, economic practicability, the effect of other vehicle standards of the Government on fuel economy, and the need of the United States to conserve energy, as required by 49 U.S.C. 32902(f). The proposal is consistent with President Obamas directive to improve the fuel economy of and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from model year 20172025 light-duty vehicles through coordinated federal standards.

TIMING OF AGENCY ACTION: No sooner than 30 days after the EPA publishes a Notice of Availability of this Final EIS in the Federal Register, NHTSA will publish a final rule and Record of Decision. The Record of Decision will state and explain NHTSAs decision and describe NHTSAs consideration of applicable environmental laws and policies.

CONTACT INFORMATION: James MacIsaac National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Office of International Policy, Fuel Economy and

Consumer Programs 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE W43-444 Washington, DC 20590 Telephone: 1-202-366-9108 E-mail: [email protected]

National Highway Traffic Safety AdministrationTelephone: 1-888-327-4236

For TTY: 1-800-424-9153

http://www.nhtsa.gov/fuel-economy

FINAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT

CORPORATE AVERAGE FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS PASSENGER CARS AND LIGHT TRUCKS

MODEL YEARS 20172025

JULY 2012

LEAD AGENCY: NATIONAL HIGHWAY TRAFFIC SAFETY

ADMINISTRATION

COOPERATING AGENC Y: U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

i

TableofContentsListofAcronymsandAbbreviations...................................................................................................xiii

Glossary ..........................................................................................................................................xvi

Summary .........................................................................................................................................S1

CHAPTER1 PURPOSEANDNEEDFORTHEPROPOSEDACTION.......................................................11

1.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................................111.2 PurposeandNeed.........................................................................................................................131.3 NationalEnvironmentalPolicyActandJointRulemakingProcess...............................................14

1.3.1 BuildingBlocksoftheNationalProgram.........................................................................141.3.2 ProposedAction...............................................................................................................17

1.4 CooperatingAgency....................................................................................................................1101.5 PublicReviewandComment......................................................................................................1101.6 NextStepsintheNationalEnvironmentalPolicyActandJointRulemakingProcess................111CHAPTER2 PROPOSEDACTIONANDALTERNATIVESANDANALYSISMETHODOLOGIES.................21

2.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................................212.2 ProposedActionandAlternatives................................................................................................21

2.2.1 UncertaintyOverMarketDrivenImprovementsinFuelEconomy(AnalysesAandB)..222.2.2 UncertaintyinNewVehicleFleetForecast......................................................................242.2.3 DesignationofAnalysesinthisEISBasedonUncertainties............................................262.2.4 Alternative1:NoAction..................................................................................................282.2.5 ActionAlternatives........................................................................................................2102.2.6 NoActionandActionAlternativesinHistoricalPerspective.........................................2152.2.7 LaboratoryTestFuelEconomyversusAdjustedFuelEconomy....................................2162.2.8 EPAsProposedGreenhouseGasEmissionStandards.................................................2172.2.9 AlternativesConsideredbutnotAnalyzedinDetail......................................................218

2.3 StandardssettingandEISMethodologiesandAssumptions.....................................................2182.3.1 VolpeModel...................................................................................................................2192.3.2 VolpeModelInputs........................................................................................................2192.3.3 VolpeModelUpdatesandTheirEffectonElectricityConsumption.............................2242.3.4 ModelingSoftware........................................................................................................2252.3.5 EnergyMarketForecastAssumptions...........................................................................2272.3.6 ApproachtoScientificUncertaintyandIncompleteInformation.................................227

2.4 ResourceAreasAffectedandTypesofEmissions......................................................................2282.4.1 TypesofEmissions.........................................................................................................228

2.5 DirectandIndirectversusCumulativeImpacts..........................................................................2362.6 ComparisonofAlternatives........................................................................................................239

2.6.1 DirectandIndirectImpacts...........................................................................................2392.6.2 CumulativeImpacts.......................................................................................................247

CHAPTER3 ENERGY.......................................................................................................................31

3.1 EnergyIntensityandConsumption...............................................................................................31

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3.2 AffectedEnvironment...................................................................................................................343.2.1 U.S.ProductionandConsumptionofPrimaryFuels........................................................343.2.2 U.S.EnergyConsumptionbySector................................................................................36

3.3 EnvironmentalConsequences....................................................................................................3103.3.1 DirectandIndirectImpacts...........................................................................................3113.3.2 CumulativeImpacts.......................................................................................................316

CHAPTER4 AIRQUALITY................................................................................................................41

4.1 AffectedEnvironment...................................................................................................................414.1.1 RelevantPollutantsandStandards..................................................................................414.1.2 Methodology..................................................................................................................413


CHAPTER5 GREENHOUSEGASEMISSIONSANDCLIMATECHANGE................................................51

5.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................................525.1.1 UncertaintywithintheIPCCFramework.........................................................................525.1.2 ClimateChangeanditsCauses........................................................................................545.1.3 AnthropogenicSourcesofGreenhouseGases................................................................555.1.4 EvidenceofClimateChange...........................................................................................585.1.5 FutureClimaticTrendsandExpectedImpacts................................................................585.1.6 BlackCarbonandOtherAerosols....................................................................................59

5.2 AffectedEnvironment.................................................................................................................5135.2.1 GreenhouseGasEmissions(HistoricandCurrent)........................................................5135.2.2 ClimateChangeEffects(HistoricandCurrent)..............................................................514

5.3 AnalysisMethodology.................................................................................................................5215.3.1 MethodologyforModelingGreenhouseGasEmissions...............................................5225.3.2 SocialCostofCarbon.....................................................................................................5245.3.3 MethodologyforEstimatingClimateEffects.................................................................5265.3.4 TippingPointsandAbruptClimateChange...................................................................537


5.5 Health,Societal,andEnvironmentalImpactsofClimateChange............................................51245.5.1 SectoralImpactsofClimateChange............................................................................51255.5.2 RegionalImpactsofClimateChange...........................................................................5165

5.6 NonclimateCumulativeImpactsofCarbonDioxide................................................................52015.6.1 Background..................................................................................................................52015.6.2 EnvironmentalConsequences.....................................................................................5202

CHAPTER6 LITERATURESYNTHESISOFLIFECYCLEENVIRONMENTALIMPACTSOFCERTAINVEHICLE

MATERIALSANDTECHNOLOGIES.................................................................................61

6.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................................616.1.1 PurposeofIncludingaLiteratureSynthesisofLifecycleEnvironmentalImpactsof

CertainVehicleMaterialsandTechnologies...................................................................61

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6.1.2 OverviewofLifecycleAssessmentintheVehicleContext.............................................626.1.3 ScopeofLiteratureSynthesisofLifecycleEnvironmentalImpactsofCertainVehicle

MaterialsandTechnologies.............................................................................................666.2 EmergingMaterialsandTechnologies..........................................................................................67

6.2.1 MassReductionbyMaterialSubstitution.......................................................................686.2.2 ElectricVehicles.............................................................................................................616

6.3 Conclusions.................................................................................................................................629CHAPTER7 OTHERIMPACTS..........................................................................................................71

7.1 LandUseandDevelopment..........................................................................................................717.1.1 AffectedEnvironment......................................................................................................717.1.2 EnvironmentalConsequences.........................................................................................71

7.2 HazardousMaterialsandRegulatedWastes................................................................................727.2.1 AffectedEnvironment......................................................................................................727.2.2 EnvironmentalConsequences.........................................................................................73

7.3 HistoricandCulturalResources....................................................................................................767.3.1 AffectedEnvironment......................................................................................................767.3.2 EnvironmentalConsequences.........................................................................................76

7.4 Noise.............................................................................................................................................777.4.1 AffectedEnvironment......................................................................................................777.4.2 EnvironmentalConsequences.........................................................................................77

7.5 SafetyImpactstoHumanHealth..................................................................................................787.6 EnvironmentalJustice...................................................................................................................78

7.6.1 AffectedEnvironment......................................................................................................797.6.2 EnvironmentalConsequences.......................................................................................710

7.7 UnavoidableAdverseImpacts....................................................................................................7117.8 ShorttermUsesandLongtermProductivity.............................................................................7127.9 IrreversibleandIrretrievableCommitmentofResources.....712CHAPTER8 MITIGATION................................................................................................................81

8.1 OverviewofImpacts.....................................................................................................................818.2 MitigationMeasures.....................................................................................................................828.3 Conclusion.....................................................................................................................................84CHAPTER9 RESPONSESTOPUBLICCOMMENTS.............................................................................91

9.1 PurposeandNeed.........................................................................................................................949.1.1 PurposeandNeedStatement..........................................................................................949.1.2 StatutoryInterpretation..................................................................................................94

9.2 ProposedActionandAlternatives................................................................................................969.2.1 ProposedAction...............................................................................................................969.2.2 NoActionandActionAlternatives...................................................................................989.2.3 VolpeModel...................................................................................................................930

9.3 EnvironmentalImpacts...............................................................................................................9509.3.1 AirQuality......................................................................................................................9509.3.2 Climate...........................................................................................................................9609.3.3 LifecycleAssessment....................................................................................................988

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9.4 OtherImpacts.............................................................................................................................9949.4.1 NationalSecurityImpacts..............................................................................................9949.4.2 EconomicImpacts..........................................................................................................9989.4.3 BiologicalResourceImpacts..........................................................................................9999.4.4 SafetyImpacts..............................................................................................................9103

CHAPTER10 REFERENCES..............................................................................................................101

CHAPTER11 INDEX........................................................................................................................111

CHAPTER12 DISTRIBUTIONLIST....................................................................................................121

12.1 FederalAgencies.........................................................................................................................12112.2 StateandLocalGovernmentOrganizations...............................................................................12512.3 ElectedOfficials...........................................................................................................................12612.4 NativeAmericanTribes...............................................................................................................12812.5 Stakeholders.............................................................................................................................1224CHAPTER13 PREPARERS/REVIEWERS............................................................................................131

13.1 UnitedStatesDepartmentofTransportation.............................................................................13113.2 ConsultantTeam.........................................................................................................................132

AppendicesAppendixA U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckResultsReportedSeparately.....................................A1

AppendixB AirQualityNonAttainmentAreaResults...........................................................................B1

AppendixC SourcesIdentifiedinPublicComments..............................................................................C1

AppendixD LifecycleAssessmentStudies............................................................................................D1

AppendixE AirQualityModelingandHealthImpactsAssessment.......................................................E1

AppendixF DraftJointTechnicalSupportDocument............................................................................F1

AppendixG NHTSAPreliminaryRegulatoryImpactAnalysis................................................................G1

AppendixH AlternateGridMixCaseCriteriaPollutantandHealthResults..H1

ListofTablesTableS1 EstimatedAverageRequiredandAchievedFleetwideFuelEconomy(mpg)

forCombinedU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyModelYearandAlternativeundereachAnalysis................................................................................S7

Table2.2.41 EstimatedU.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckAverageFleetwideFuelEconomybyModelYearundertheNoActionAlternative.......................................29

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Table2.2.51 EstimatedU.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckAverageFleetwideFuelEconomybyModelYearunderAlternative2.........................................................211

Table2.2.52 EstimatedU.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckAverageFleetwideFuelEconomybyModelYearunderthePreferredAlternative.....................................213

Table2.2.53 EstimatedU.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckAverageFleetwideFuelEconomybyModelYearunderAlternative4.........................................................214

Table2.2.71 ChangeinSalesweightedCAFELaboratoryTestMPGandEPAAdjustedMPG.........................................................................................................................217

Table2.2.81 ProjectedU.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFleetwideEmissionsComplianceTargetsundertheProposedCO2Standards........................................218

Table2.2.82 ProjectedU.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFleetwideAchievedCO2equivalentEmissionsLevelsundertheProposedCO2Standards...........................218

Table2.3.21 TechnologiesConsideredbytheVolpeModelthatManufacturersCanAddtotheirVehicleModelsandPlatformstoImproveFuelEconomy..................221

Table2.3.22 Forecasts,Assumptions,andParametersUsedtoAnalyzeImpactsofRegulatoryAlternatives...........................................................................................223

Table2.3.23 SocialCostofCO2,2017..........................................................................................223

Table2.3.41 InventoryofFinalEISModelingSoftware...............................................................225

Table2.4.11 RangeofPredictedChangeinElectricPowerSectorEmissionsBetween2010and2035(eightemissonsrelatedsidecases),AEO2011..............................234

Table2.4.12 ElectricityGenerationMix(Gwh)byFuelSource,fortheBaseandAlternateGridMixCases.........................................................................................................235

Table2.4.13 UpstreamEmissionsFactorsforElectricalPowerGenerationfortheBaseandAlternateGridMixCases.........................................................................................235

Table2.6.11A DirectandIndirectImpacts,AnalysesA1andA2....................................................241

Table2.6.11B DirectandIndirectImpacts,AnalysesB1andB2....................................................244

Table2.6.21C CumulativeImpacts,AnalysesC1andC2................................................................248

Table3.3.11A1 FuelConsumptionandFuelSavingsbyAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisA1.................................312

Table3.3.11A2 FuelConsumptionandFuelSavingsbyAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisA2.................................312

Table3.3.11B1 FuelConsumptionandFuelSavingsbyAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisB1.................................312

Table3.3.11B2 FuelConsumptionandFuelSavingsbyAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisB2.................................313

Table3.3.21C1 FuelConsumptionandFuelSavingsbyAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisC1.................................317

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Table3.3.21C2 FuelConsumptionandFuelSavingsbyAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisC2.................................317

Table4.1.11 NationalAmbientAirQualityStandards...................................................................43

Table4.1.21 NonattainmentAreasforOzoneandPM2.5............................................................418

Table4.1.22 HumanHealthandWelfareEffectsofPM2.5...........................................................424

Table4.1.23 BenefitpertonValuesDerivedforPMrelatedMortalityandMorbidity,AdjustedtoReflectDOTsValueofStatisticalLife.........................427

Table4.1.24 ValuationMetricsforMortalityandMorbidityEndpoints.....................................428

Table4.1.25 IncidencepertonValuesforHealthOutcomes.....................................................430

Table4.2.11A1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA1..........................................................................433

Table4.2.11A2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA2..........................................................................434

Table4.2.11B1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB1...........................................................................435

Table4.2.11B2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB2...........................................................................436

Table4.2.12A1 NationwideChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA1...........................................................446

Table4.2.12A2 NationwideChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA2...........................................................447

Table4.2.12B1 NationwideChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB1...........................................................448

Table4.2.12B2 NationwideChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB2...........................................................449

Table4.2.13A1 CriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisA1.............454

Table4.2.13A2 CriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisA2.............455

Table4.2.13B1 CriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisB1.............455

Table4.2.13B2 CriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisB2.............456

Table4.2.14A1 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA1..................................................................457

Table4.2.14A2 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA2..................................................................458

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Table4.2.14B1 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB1..................................................................459

Table4.2.14B2 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB2..................................................................460

Table4.2.15A1 NationwideChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA1...................................................470

Table4.2.15A2 NationwideChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA2...................................................471

Table4.2.15B1 NationwideChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB1...................................................472

Table4.2.15B2 NationwideChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB2...................................................473

Table4.2.16A1 ChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisA1...............................................................................................................478

Table4.2.16A2 ChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisA2...............................................................................................................479

Table4.2.16B1 ChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisB1...............................................................................................................480

Table4.2.16B2 ChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisB2...............................................................................................................481

Table4.2.17A1 NationwideChangesinHealthOutcomesfromCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA1,Base

GridMixandAlternateGridMix.............................................................................482

Table4.2.17A2 NationwideChangesinHealthOutcomesfromCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA2,Base


Table4.2.17B1 NationwideChangesinHealthOutcomesfromCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB1,Base


Table4.2.17B2 NationwideChangesinHealthOutcomesfromCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB2,Base


Table4.2.18A1 NationwideMonetizedHealthBenefitsfromCriteriaPollutantEmissions fromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA1,Base GridMixandAlternateGridMix.............................................................................487

Table4.2.18A2 NationwideMonetizedHealthBenefitsfromCriteriaPollutantEmissions fromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA2,Base

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Table4.2.18B1 NationwideMonetizedHealthBenefitsfromCriteriaPollutantEmissions fromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB1,Base GridMixandAlternateGridMix.............................................................................489

Table4.2.18B2 NationwideMonetizedHealthBenefitsfromCriteriaPollutantEmissions fromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB2,Base GridMixandAlternateGridMix............................................................................490

Table4.2.21C1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC1..................................................................497

Table4.2.21C2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC2..................................................................498

Table4.2.22C1 NationwideChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC1.................................................4104

Table4.2.22C2 NationwideChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC2.................................................4105

Table4.2.23C1 CriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisC1...........4108

Table4.2.23C2 CriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisC2...........4108

Table4.2.24C1 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC1................................................................4109

Table4.2.24C2 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC2................................................................4110

Table4.2.25C1 NationwideChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC1.................................................4116

Table4.2.25C2 NationwideChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC2.................................................4117

Table4.2.26C1 ChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisC1.............................................................................................................4120

Table4.2.26C2 ChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisC2.............................................................................................................4121

Table4.2.27C1 NationwideChangesinHealthOutcomesfromCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC1,Base

GridMixandAlternateGridMix...........................................................................4122

Table4.2.27C2 NationwideChangesinHealthOutcomesfromCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC2,Base

GridMixandAlternateGridMix...........................................................................4123

Table4.2.28C1 NationwideMonetizedHealthBenefitsfromCriteriaPollutantEmissions

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fromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC1,Base GridMixandAlternateGridMix...........................................................................4124

Table4.2.28C2 NationwideMonetizedHealthBenefitsfromCriteriaPollutantEmissions fromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC2,Base GridMixandAlternateGridMix...........................................................................4125

Table5.1.11 StandardTermsUsedtoDefineLevelsofConfidence..............................................53

Table5.1.12 StandardTermsUsedtoDefinetheLikelihoodofAnOccurrenceofaClimaterelatedEvent................................................................................................53

Table5.3.21 SocialCostofCarbon,20122050...........................................................................526

Table5.4.11A1 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfrom2017through2100byAlternative,AnalysisA1..................................541

Table5.4.11A2 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfrom2017through2100byAlternative,AnalysisA2..................................541

Table5.4.11B1 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfrom2017through2100byAlternative,AnalysisB1..................................542

Table5.4.11B2 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfrom2017through2100byAlternative,AnalysisB2..................................543

Table5.4.12A1 EmissionsofGreenhouseGasesfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA1...........................................................................................549

Table5.4.12A2 EmissionsofGreenhouseGasesfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA2...........................................................................................550

Table5.4.12B1 EmissionsofGreenhouseGasesfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB1...........................................................................................551

Table5.4.12B2 EmissionsofGreenhouseGasesfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB2...........................................................................................552

Table5.4.13 ComparisonofGHGEmissionsImpactsbetween20172025CAFEStandardsandRegionalInitiatives...........................................................................................561

Table5.4.14A1 ReducedMonetizedDamagesofClimateChangeforeachRegulatoryAlternative,NetPresentValuein2012ofGHGEmissionReductionsbetween2017and2050,AnalysisA1.....................................................................................562

Table5.4.14A2 ReducedMonetizedDamagesofClimateChangeforeachRegulatoryAlternative,NetPresentValuein2012ofGHGEmissionReductionsbetween2017and2050,AnalysisA2.....................................................................................562

Table5.4.14B1 ReducedMonetizedDamagesofClimateChangeforeachRegulatoryAlternative,NetPresentValuein2012ofGHGEmissionReductionsbetween2017and2050,AnalysisB1.....................................................................................563

Table5.4.14B2 ReducedMonetizedDamagesofClimateChangeforeachRegulatoryAlternative,NetPresentValuein2012ofGHGEmissionReductionsbetween2017and2050,AnalysisB2.....................................................................................563

Table5.4.15 ComparisonofMAGICCModelingResultsandReportedIPCCResults..................564

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Table5.4.16A1 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncrease,andSealevelRiseUsingMAGICCbyAlternative,AnalysisA1......................................564

Table5.4.16A2 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncrease,andSealevelRiseUsingMAGICCbyAlternative,AnalysisA2.......................................565

Table5.4.16B1 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncrease,andSealevelRiseUsingMAGICC,AnalysisB1..............................................................565

Table5.4.16B2 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncrease,andSealevelRiseUsingMAGICCbyAlternative,AnalysisB2.......................................566

Table5.4.17 SummaryofRegionalChangestoWarmingandSeasonalTemperaturesExtractedfromtheIPCCFourthAssessmentReport..............................................583

Table5.4.18 GlobalMeanPrecipitationIncrease........................................................................586

Table5.4.19A1 GlobalMeanPrecipitation(percentIncrease)BasedonGCAMReferenceScenarioUsingIncreasesinGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureSimulatedbyMAGICC,byAlternative,AnalysisA1..................................................................586

Table5.4.19A2 GlobalMeanPrecipitation(percentIncrease)BasedonGCAMReferenceScenarioUsingIncreasesinGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureSimulatedbyMAGICC,byAlternative,AnalysisA2..................................................................587

Table5.4.19B1 GlobalMeanPrecipitation(percentIncrease)BasedonGCAMReferenceScenarioUsingIncreasesinGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureSimulatedbyMAGICC,byAlternative,AnalysisB1..................................................................588

Table5.4.19B2 GlobalMeanPrecipitation(percentIncrease)BasedonGCAMReferenceScenarioUsingIncreasesinGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureSimulatedbyMAGICC,byAlternative,AnalysisB2..................................................................589

Table5.4.110 SummaryofRegionalChangestoPrecipitationExtractedfromtheIPCCFourthAssessmentReport......................................................................................590

Table5.4.111A1 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncreases,andSealevelRiseforVaryingClimateSensitivitiesforSelectedAlternatives,AnalysisA1...............................................................................................................593

Table5.4.111A2 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncreases,andSealevelRiseforVaryingClimateSensitivitiesforSelectedAlternatives,AnalysisA2...............................................................................................................594

Table5.4.111B1 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncreases,andSealevelRiseforVaryingClimateSensitivitiesforSelectedAlternatives,AnalysisB1...............................................................................................................595

Table5.4.111B2 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncreases,andSealevelRiseforVaryingClimateSensitivitiesforSelectedAlternatives,AnalysisB2...............................................................................................................596

Table5.4.21C1 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfrom2017through2100byAlternative,AnalysisC1...............................................................................................................598

Table5.4.21C2 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfrom2017through2100byAlternative,AnalysisC2...............................................................................................................598

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Table5.4.22C1 EmissionsofGreenhouseGases,AnalysisC1........................................................5102

Table5.4.22C2 EmissionsofGreenhouseGases,AnalysisC2........................................................5103

Table5.4.23C1 ReducedMonetizedDamagesofClimateChangeforeachActionAlternativeNetPresentValuein2012ofGHGEmissionReductionsbetween2017and2050,AnalysisC1...................................................................................................5103

Table5.4.23C2 ReducedMonetizedDamagesofClimateChangeforeachActionAlternativeNetPresentValuein2012ofGHGEmissionReductionsbetween2017and2050,AnalysisC2...................................................................................................5104

Table5.4.24C1 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncrease,andSealevelRiseUsingMAGICCbyAlternative,AnalysisC1.....................................5105

Table5.4.24C2 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncrease,andSealevelRiseUsingMAGICCbyAlternative,AnalysisC2.....................................5105

Table5.4.25C1 GlobalMeanPrecipitation(percentIncrease)BasedonGCAM6.0ScenarioUsingIncreasesinGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureSimulatedbyMAGICC,AnalysisC1.............................................................................................................5115

Table5.4.25C2 GlobalMeanPrecipitation(percentIncrease)BasedonGCAM6.0ScenarioUsingIncreasesinGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureSimulatedbyMAGICC,AnalysisC2.............................................................................................................5116

Table5.4.26C1 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncreases,andSealevelRiseforVaryingClimateSensitivitiesforSelectedAlternatives,AnalysisC1.............................................................................................................5117

Table5.4.26C2 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncreases,andSealevelRiseforVaryingClimateSensitivitiesforSelectedAlternatives,AnalysisC2.............................................................................................................5120

Table5.5.21 ProjectedTrendsinEnvironmentalVariablesfortheNortheast..........................5168

Table5.5.22 ProjectedTrendsinEnvironmentalVariablesfortheSoutheast..........................5175

Table5.5.23 ProjectedTrendsinEnvironmentalVariablesfortheMidwest............................5179

Table5.5.24 ProjectedtrendsinEnvironmentalVariablesfortheGreatPlains.......................5182

Table5.5.25 ProjectedTrendsinEnvironmentalVariablesfortheSouthwest.........................5185

Table5.5.26 ProjectedTrendsinEnvironmentalVariablesfortheNorthwest.........................5189

Table5.5.27 ProjectedTrendsinEnvironmentalVariablesforAlaska......................................5194

Table5.5.28 ProjectedTrendsinEnvironmentalVariablesfortheIslands...............................5197

Table6.1.31 KeyElementsTrackedintheLiteratureSynthesis....................................................67

Table6.2.21 ComparisonofVehicleLifecycleEnergyandGHGEmissions................................622

Table6.2.22 SensitivityofLifecycleGHGImpactsAssociatedwithBEVsfromSamarasandMeisterling(2008)............................................................................................623

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ListofFiguresFigureS1 U.S.EnergyConsumptionbySector,2010..............................................................S10

FigureS2 U.S.PetroleumConsumptionbySector,2010........................................................S11

FigureS3A1 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyAlternative,AnalysisA1........S13

FigureS3A2 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyAlternative,AnalysisA2........S14

FigureS3B1 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyAlternative,AnalysisB1........S15

FigureS3B2 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyAlternative,AnalysisB2........S16

FigureS3C1 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyAlternative,AnalysisC1........S17

FigureS3C2 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyAlternative,AnalysisC2........S18

FigureS4A1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisA1............................................................S22

FigureS4A2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisA2............................................................S23

FigureS4B1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisB1............................................................S24

FigureS4B2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisB2............................................................S25

FigureS5A1 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisA1............................................................S26

FigureS5A2 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisA2............................................................S27

FigureS5B1 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisB1............................................................S28

FigureS5B2 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisB2............................................................S29

FigureS4C1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisC1............................................................S31

FigureS4C2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisC2............................................................S31

FigureS5C1 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisC1............................................................S33

FigureS5C2 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisC2............................................................S34

FigureS6 TheGreenhouseEffect............................................................................................S35

FigureS7 ContributionofTransportationtoU.S.CO2EmissionsandProportionAttributablebyMode,2010....................................................................................S37

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FigureS8A1 ProjectedAnnualCO2Emissions(MMTCO2)fromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA1..................................................................S39

FigureS8A2 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA2...........................................................................................S40

FigureS8B1 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB1...........................................................................................S41

FigureS8B2 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB2...........................................................................................S42

FigureS9A1 ReductioninGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA1...........................................................................................S44

FigureS9A2 ReductioninGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA2...........................................................................................S45

FigureS9B1 ReductioninGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB1...........................................................................................S46

FigureS9B2 ReductioninGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB2...........................................................................................S47

FigureS8C1 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC1...........................................................................................S48

FigureS8C2 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC2...........................................................................................S49

FigureS9C1 ReductioninGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisC1...........................................................................................S50

FigureS9C2 ReductioninGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisC2...........................................................................................S51

Figure2.2.61 HistoricalandProjectedAchievedFuelEconomyforPassengerCarsandLightTrucks.......................................................................................................215

Figure2.2.71 19752011SalesweightedCAFELaboratoryTestMPGandEPAAdjustedMPG..........................................................................................................217

Figure2.51 RepresentationsforAnalysesA1,A2,B1,andB2undertheNoActionAlternativeandActionAlternatives........................................................................236

Figure2.52A RepresentationofDirectandIndirectImpactsforAnalysesA1andA2.................237

Figure2.52B RepresentationofDirectandIndirectImpactsforAnalysesB1andB2.................238

Figure2.53 RepresentationsofCumulativeImpacts,AnalysesC1andC2................................239

Figure3.11 EnergyIntensityandRealPriceofOilandNaturalGas,19492010........................32

Figure3.2.11 U.S.EnergyProductionandConsumptionbySourcein2009andProjectedin2035(excludingimpactsofProposedAction).......................................................35

Figure3.2.21 U.S.EnergyFlowsin2009.........................................................................................37

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Figure3.2.22 U.S.EnergyConsumptionbyEndUseSectorandSourceFuelProjectedin2035(excludingimpactsoftheProposedAction)...................................................38

Figure3.2.23 Consumption,Production,andNetImportsofPetroleumandOtherLiquidFuels,19492009....................................................................................................310

Figure3.3.11A1 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyActionAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisA1...............................................................................................................313

Figure3.3.11A2 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyActionAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisA2...............................................................................................................314

Figure3.3.11B1 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyActionAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisB1...............................................................................................................315

Figure3.3.11B2 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyActionAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisB2...............................................................................................................316

Figure3.3.21C1 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyActionAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisC1...............................................................................................................318

Figure3.3.21C2 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyActionAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisC2...............................................................................................................319

Figure4.1.11 VehicleMilesTraveledComparedtoVehicleEmissions.........................................411

Figure4.2.11A1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisA1...................................................437

Figure4.2.11A2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisA2...................................................438

Figure4.2.11B1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengarCarsandLightTrucksfor2040Alternative,AnalysisB1........................................................439

Figure4.2.11B2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengarCarsandLightTrucksfor2040Alternative,AnalysisB2........................................................440

Figure4.2.12A1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisA1........................441

Figure4.2.12A2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisA2........................442

Figure4.2.12B1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisB1........................443

Figure4.2.12B2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisB2........................444

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Figure4.2.13A1 (a)(e).NationwidePercentageChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA1.............................................450

Figure4.2.13A2 (a)(e).NationwidePercentageChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA2.............................................451

Figure4.2.13B1 (a)(e).NationwidePercentageChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB1.............................................452

Figure4.2.13B2 (a)(e).NationwidePercentageChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB2.............................................453

Figure4.2.14A1 NationwideToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisA1...................................................461

Figure4.2.14A2 NationwideToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisA2...................................................462

Figure4.2.14B1 NationwideToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisB1...................................................463

Figure4.2.14B2 NationwideToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisB2...................................................464

Figure4.2.15A1 NationwideToxicsPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisA1........................466

Figure4.2.15A2 NationwideToxicsPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisA2........................467

Figure4.2.15B1 NationwideToxicsPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisB1........................468

Figure4.2.15B2 NationwideToxicsPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisB2........................469

Figure4.2.16A1 (a)(f).NationwidePercentageChangesinToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA1.............................................474

Figure4.2.16A2 (a)(f).NationwidePercentageChangesinToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA2.............................................475

Figure4.2.16B1 (a)(f).NationwidePercentageChangesinToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB1.............................................476

Figure4.2.16B2 (a)(f).NationwidePercentageChangesinToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB2.............................................477

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Figure4.2.21C1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisC1...................................................499

Figure4.2.21C2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisC2.................................................4100

Figure4.2.22C1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisC1......................4101

Figure4.2.22C2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisC2......................4102

Figure4.2.23C1 (a)(e).NationwidePercentageChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisC1............................................4106

Figure4.2.23C2 (a)(e).NationwidePercentageChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisC2............................................4107

Figure4.2.24C1 NationwideToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisC1.................................................4112

Figure4.2.24C2 NationwideToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisC2.................................................4113

Figure4.2.25C1 NationwideToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisC1......................4114

Figure4.2.25C2 NationwideToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisC2......................4115

Figure4.2.26C1 (a)(f).NationwidePercentageChangesinToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisC1............................................4118

Figure4.2.26C2 (a)(f).NationwidePercentageChangesinToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisC2............................................4119

Figure5.1.21 ChangesinTemperature,SeaLevel,andNorthernHemisphereSnowCover..........54

Figure5.1.22 TheGreenhouseEffect..............................................................................................55

Figure5.1.31 ContributionofTransportationtoU.S.CO2EmissionsandProportionAttributablebyMode,2010......................................................................................57

Figure5.31 CascadeofUncertaintyinClimateChangeSimulations.........................................522

Figure5.4.11A1 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfrom2017through2100byAlternative,AnalysisA1..................................541

Figure5.4.11A2 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfrom2017through2100byAlternative,AnalysisA2..................................542

Figure5.4.11B1 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfrom2017through2100byAlternative,AnalysisB1.................................543

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Figure5.4.11B2 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfrom2017through2100byAlternative,AnalysisB2..................................544

Figure5.4.12A1 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA1...........................................................................................545

Figure5.4.12A2 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA2...........................................................................................546

Figure5.4.12B1 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB1...........................................................................................547

Figure5.4.12B2 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB2...........................................................................................548

Figure5.4.13A1 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternativeComparedto17%below2005Levels,AnalysisA1..............553

Figure5.4.13A2 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternativeComparedto17%below2005Levels,AnalysisA2..............554

Figure5.4.13B1 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternativeComparedto17%below2005Levels,AnalysisB1..............555

Figure5.4.13B2 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternativeComparedto17%below2005Levels,AnalysisB2.........................556

Figure5.4.14A1 NumberofU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksEquivalenttoCO2Reductionsin2025ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA1................................557

Figure5.4.14A2 NumberofU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksEquivalenttoCO2Reductionsin2025ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA2................................558

Figure5.4.14B1 NumberofU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksEquivalenttoCO2Reductionsin2025ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB1.................................559

Figure5.4.14B2 NumberofU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksEquivalenttoCO2Reductionsin2025ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB2.................................560

Figure5.4.15A1 AtmosphericCO2ConcentrationsbyAlternative,AnalysisA1................................567

Figure5.4.15A2 AtmosphericCO2ConcentrationsbyAlternative,AnalysisA2................................568

Figure5.4.15B1 AtmosphericCO2ConcentrationsbyAlternative,AnalysisB1................................569

Figure5.4.15B2 AtmosphericCO2ConcentrationsbyAlternative,AnalysisB2................................570

Figure5.4.16A1 ReductioninAtmosphericCO2ConcentrationsComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA1...........................................................................................571

Figure5.4.16A2 ReductioninAtmosphericCO2ConcentrationsComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA2...........................................................................................572

Figure5.4.16B1 AtmosphericReductioninCO2ConcentrationsComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB1...........................................................................................573

Figure5.4.16B2 AtmosphericReductioninCO2ConcentrationsComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB2...........................................................................................574

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Figure5.4.17A1 GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncreasebyAlternative,AnalysisA1...............575

Figure5.4.17A2 GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncreasebyAlternative,AnalysisA2...............576

Figure5.4.17B1 GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncreasebyAlternative,AnalysisB1...............577

Figure5.4.17B2 GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncreasebyAlternative,AnalysisB2...............578

Figure5.4.18A1 ReductioninGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA1...............................................................................579

Figure5.4.18A2 ReductioninGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA2...............................................................................580

Figure5.4.18B1 ReductioninGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB1...............................................................................581

Figure5.4.18B2 ReductioninGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB2...............................................................................582

Figure5.4.21C1 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfrom2017through2100by Alternative,AnalysisC1...........................................................................................598

Figure5.4.21C2 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfrom2017through2100by Alternative,AnalysisC2...........................................................................................599

Figure5.4.22C1 AnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksundertheProposedAction,AnalysisC1..........................................................................5100

Figure5.4.22C2 AnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksundertheProposedAction,AnalysisC2..........................................................................5101

Figure5.4.23C1 AtmosphericCO2Concentrations(ppm)byAlternative,AnalysisC1...................5107

Figure5.4.23C2 AtmosphericCO2Concentrations(ppm)byAlternative,AnalysisC2...................5108

Figure5.4.24C1 AtmosphericCO2Concentrations(ppm)(ReductionComparedtotheNoActionAlternative),AnalysisC1............................................................................5109

Figure5.4.24C2 AtmosphericCO2Concentrations(ppm)(ReductionComparedtotheNoActionAlternative),AnalysisC2............................................................................5110

Figure5.4.25C1 GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncrease,AnalysisC1....................................5111

Figure5.4.25C2 GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncrease,AnalysisC2....................................5112

Figure5.4.26C1 ReductioninGlobalMeanTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisC1.........................................................................................5113

Figure5.4.26C2 ReductioninGlobalMeanTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisC2.........................................................................................5114

Figure5.5.11 TheThreeLowestLayersinEarthsAtmosphereandtheLocationoftheOzoneLayer...........................................................................................................5162

Figure5.5.21 ObservedandProjectedAverageStreamflowoftheQuinaultRiver,Washington...........................................................................................................5190

Figure5.5.22 ObservedandProjectedPrecipitationChangesinCaribbeanIslands(19002100)..........................................................................................................5198

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xix

Figure6.1.21 VehicleLifeCycle.......................................................................................................63

Figure6.2.21 U.S.ElectricPowerIndustryNetGenerationbyFuel,2010....................................620

xx

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

Toensureamorereaderfriendlydocument,theNationalHighwayTrafficSafetyAdministrationhasendeavoredtolimittheuseofacronymsandabbreviationsinthisEnvironmentalImpactStatement.However,thisisacomplexdocument,andtheuseofacronymsandabbreviationsisunavoidable,particularlyintablesandfigures.Thislistofacronymsandabbreviationsdefinesthoseusedinthetextofthemaindocument.Tablefootnotesdefineacronymsandabbreviationsusedtherein.Acronymsandabbreviationsinfiguresaredefinedsomewhereinthefiguresorjustbelowthem. C degreesCelsiusF degreesFahrenheitg/m3 microgramspercubicmeterAEO AnnualEnergyOutlookAER AnnualEnergyReviewAMO AtlanticMultidecadalOscillationAMOC AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculationAOGCM atmosphericoceangeneralcirculationmodelBACT BestAvailableControlTechnologyBiW BodyinWhiteBTU BritishthermalunitCAA CleanAirActCAFE CorporateAverageFuelEconomyCARB CaliforniaAirResourcesBoardCBD CenterforBiologicalDiversityCEQ CouncilonEnvironmentalQualityCFR CodeofFederalRegulationsCH4 methaneCMAQ CongestionMitigationandAirQualityImprovementCO carbonmonoxideCO2 carbondioxideCO2e carbondioxideequivalentCOI costofillnessCRC ConsultingResourcesCorporationDICE DynamicIntegratedClimateandEconomymodelDOD U.S.DepartmentofDefenseDOE U.S.DepartmentofEnergyDOT U.S.DepartmentofTransportationDPM dieselparticulatematterEDF EnvironmentalDefenseFundEEI EdisonElectricInstituteEIA EnergyInformationAdministrationEIS EnvironmentalImpactStatementEISA EnergyIndependenceandSecurityAct

AcronymsandAbbreviations

xxi

EO ExecutiveOrderEPA U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyEPCA EnergyPolicyandConservationActEV electricvehicleFHWA FederalHighwayAdministrationFR FederalRegisterFTA FederalTransitAdministrationFUND ClimateFrameworkforUncertainty,Negotiation,andDistributionmodelGCAM GlobalChangeAssessmentModelGCM generalcirculationmodelGDP grossdomesticproductGHG greenhousegasGIS geographicinformationsystemgpm gallonspermileGREET GreenhouseGases,RegulatedEmissions,andEnergyUseinTransportationGWP globalwarmingpotentialHD heavyduty;mediumandheavydutyHEV hybridelectricvehicleHFC hydrofluorocarbonHHS U.S.DepartmentofHealthandHumanServicesIARC InternationalAgencyforResearchonCancerICCT InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportationICV internalcombustionvehicleIEO InternationalEnergyOutlookIGSM IntegratedGlobalSystemModelIPCC IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeIRIS IntegratedRiskInformationSystemISO InternationalOrganizationforStandardizationLCA lifecycleassessmentLiion lithiumionMAGICC ModelforAssessmentofGreenhouseGasinducedClimateChangeMECA ManufacturersofEmissionControlsAssociationMERGE ModelforEvaluatingRegionalandGlobalEffectsMDOT MichiganDepartmentofTransportationMMTCO2 millionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideMMTCO2e millionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalentMOC MeridionalOverturningCirculationMOVES MotorVehicleEmissionSimulator(EPA)MOVES2010a 2010MotorVehicleEmissionSimulator(EPA)mpg milespergallonmph milesperhourMSAT mobilesourceairtoxicMY modelyear


xxii

N2O nitrousoxideNAAQS NationalAmbientAirQualityStandardsNAS NationalAcademyofSciencesNEI NationalEmissionsInventoryNEMS NatinalEnergyModelingSystemNEPA NationalEnvironmentalPolicyActNESHAP NationalEmissionsStandardsforHazardousAirPollutantsNHTSA NationalHighwayTrafficSafetyAdministrationNiMH nickelmetalhydrideNO nitricoxideNO2 nitrogendioxideNOAA NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministrationNOx nitrogenoxidesNPRM NoticeofProposedRulemakingNRC NationalResearchCouncilNRDC NaturalResourcesDefenseCouncilNVH noise,vibration,andharshnessPAGE PolicyAnalysisfortheGreenhouseEffectmodelPAH polycyclicaromatichydrocarbonPEF petroleumequivalencefactorPETM PaleoceneEocenethermalmaximumPFC perfluorocarbonPHEV pluginhybridelectricvehiclePOM polycyclicorganicmatterPM particulatematterPM10 particulatematter,10micronsdiameterorlessPM2.5 particulatematter,2.5micronsdiameterorlessppm partspermillionPSD PreventionofSignificantDeteriorationRCP RepresentativeConcentrationPathwayRFS RenewableFuelStandardRFS2 RenewableFuelStandard2RGGI RegionalGreenhouseGasInitiativeRIA RegulatoryImpactAnalysisSAP SynthesisandAssessmentProductSCC socialcostofcarbonSF6 sulfurhexafluorideSIP StateImplementationPlanSOx sulfuroxidesSO2 sulfurdioxideSRES SpecialReportonEmissionScenariosTS&D Transportation,Storage,andDistributionTSD TechnicalSupportDocument


xxiii

UCS UnionofConcernedScientistsU.S.C. UnitedStatesCodeUNEP UnitedNationsEnvironmentalProgrammeUNFCCC UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeVMT vehiclemilestraveledVOC volatileorganiccompoundVSL valueofstatisticallifeWCI WesternClimateInitiativeWGI WorkGroupI,IPCCWMO WorldMeteorologicalOrganizationWTP willingnesstopay

xxiv

GlossaryTohelpreadersmorefullyunderstandthisEIS,thisGlossaryincludesdefinitionsfortechnicalandscientificterms,andplainEnglishtermsuseddifferentlyinthecontextoftheEIS.ItalicizedtermsindefinitionsindicatetermsalsoincludedinthisGlossary.

Term Definition

Adaptation AsusedinthisEIS,initiativesandmeasurestoreducethevulnerabilityofnaturalandhumansystemsfromactualorexpectedeffectsofclimatechangeeffects.Therearevarioustypesofadaptation,includinganticipatoryandreactive,privateandpublic,andautonomousandplanned.

Albedo SurfacesonEarthreflectsolarradiationbacktospace.Thereflectivecharacteristic,knownasalbedo,indicatestheproportionofincomingsolarradiationthatthesurfacereflects.Highalbedohasacoolingeffectbecausethesurfacereflectsratherthanabsorbsmostsolarradiation.

Anthropogenic Resultingfromorproducedbyhumans.

Attainmentarea RegionwhereconcentrationsofcriteriapollutantsdonotexceedlimitsestablishedunderNationalAmbientAirQualityStandards.

Batteryelectricvehicle(BEV)

Typeofelectricvehiclethatiscompletelyelectricallypoweredanddoesnotincorporateaninternalcombustionengine.

Benthic Describinghabitatororganismsoccurringatthebottomofabodyofwater.

Biofuel Liquidfuelsandblendingcomponentsproducedfrombiomassfeedstocks,usedprimarilyfortransportation.

Biomass Organicnonfossilmaterialofbiologicalorigin(materialfromliving,orrecentlylivingorganisms)constitutingarenewableenergysource.Asanenergysource,biomasscaneitherbeuseddirectly,orconvertedintootherenergyproductssuchasbiofuel.Directbiomassfuelcanbeusedtogenerateelectricitywithsteamturbinesandgasifiersorproduceheat,usuallybydirectcombustion.Examplesincludeforestresidues(suchasdeadtrees,branchesandtreestumps),yardclippings,woodchips,andevenmunicipalsolidwaste.Convertedbiomassincludesplantoranimalmatterconvertedintofibersorotherindustrialchemicals,includingbiofuels.Biomasscanbegrownfromnumeroustypesofplants,includingmiscanthus,switchgrass,hemp,corn,poplar,willow,sorghum,sugarcane,andavarietyoftreespecies,rangingfromeucalyptustooilpalm(palmoil).

Biosphere ThepartoftheEarthsystemcomprisingallecosystemsandlivingorganisms,intheatmosphere,onland(terrestrialbiosphere),orintheoceans(marinebiosphere).

Blackcarbon Operationallydefinedaerosolspeciesbasedonmeasurementoflightabsorptionandchemicalreactivityand/orthermalstability;consistsofsoot,charcoal,and/orpossiblelightabsorbingrefractoryorganicmatter.

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Term Definition

Carbonfixation Thisistheprocessbywhichinorganiccarbon(typicallyCO2)isusedinanorganiccompound.AnexampleistheuptakeofCO2byplantsduringtheprocessofphotosynthesis.

Carbonsequestration Theactorprocessofincreasingcarbonstorageofareservoir(otherthantheatmosphere).

Carbonsink Anyprocess,activity,ormechanismthatremovesagreenhousegas,anaerosol,oraprecursorofagreenhousegasoraerosolfromtheatmosphere.

Climatefeedback Aninteractionmechanismbetweenprocessesintheclimatesystemiscalledaclimatefeedback,whentheresultofaninitialprocesstriggerschangesinasecondprocessthatinturninfluencestheinitialone.Apositivefeedbackintensifiestheoriginalprocess,andanegativefeedbackreducesit.

Criteriapollutants AirpollutantsforwhichEPAhasestablishedNationalAmbientAirQualityStandards.UndertheCleanAirAct,asamended,EPAhasestablishedNationalAmbientAirQualityStandardsforsixrelativelycommonplacepollutants(carbonmonoxide,airbornelead,nitrogendioxide,ozone,sulfurdioxide,andfineparticulatematter;thesearethecriteriapollutants)thatcanaccumulateintheatmosphereasaresultofnormallevelsofhumanactivity.

Cryosphere TheportionofEarthssurfacefrozenwater,suchassnow,permafrost,floatingice,andglaciers.

Cumulativeimpacts theimpactontheenvironmentwhichresultsfromtheincrementalimpactoftheactionwhenaddedtootherpast,present,andreasonablyforeseeablefutureactionsregardlessofwhatagency(FederalornonFederal)orpersonundertakessuchotheractions.40CFR1508.7

Directimpacts Effectscausedbytheactionandoccuratthesametimeandplace.40CFR1508.8.

Downstreamemissions

Emissionsreleasedfromavehiclewhileitisinoperation,parked,orbeingrefueled,andconsistingoftailpipeexhaust,evaporativeemissionsofvolatileorganiccompoundsfromthevehiclesfuelstorageanddeliverysystem,andparticulatesgeneratedbybrakeandtirewear.

Ecosystem Asystemoflivingorganismsinteractingwitheachotherandtheirphysicalenvironment.Theboundariesofwhatcouldbecalledanecosystemaresomewhatarbitrary,dependingonthefocusofinterestorstudy.Therefore,theextentofanecosystemcanrangefromverysmallspatialscalesto,ultimately,allofEarth.

Electricvehicle(EV) Avehiclethatusesbatterytechnologiestoprovidepower,thereforereducingoreveneliminatingliquidfuelconsumptionduringvehicleoperation.Thetermelectricvehiclecoversarangeofdifferentvehicletypes,includingbatteryelectricvehicles(BEVs),hybridelectricvehicles(HEVs),andpluginhybridelectricvehicles(PHEVs).

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Term Definition

ElNioSouthernOscillation(ENSO)

ThetermElNiowasinitiallyusedtodescribeawarmwatercurrentthatperiodicallyflowsalongthecoastofEcuadorandPeru,disruptingthelocalfishery.IthassincebecomeidentifiedwithabasinwidewarmingofthetropicalPacificeastoftheinternationaldateline.ThisoceaniceventisassociatedwithafluctuationofaglobalscaletropicalandsubtropicalsurfacepressurepatterncalledtheSouthernOscillation.This,coupledatmosphereoceanphenomenon,withpreferredtimescalesof2toapproximately7years,iscollectivelyknownasElNioSouthernOscillation,orENSO.DuringanENSOevent,theprevailingtradewindsweaken,reducingupwellingandalteringoceancurrentssuchthattheseasurfacetemperatureswarm,furtherweakeningthetradewinds.

Emissionrate Rateatwhichcontaminantsaredischargedfromaparticularsource,usuallyinweightunitpertimeperiod.

Energyintensity Thesumofallenergysuppliedtoaneconomydividedbyitsreal(inflationadjusted)GrossDomesticProduct(GDP).EnergyintensitymeasurestheefficiencyatwhichenergyisconvertedtoGDP;ahighvalueindicatesaninefficientconversionofenergytoGDPandalowervalueindicatesamoreefficientconversion.

Eutrophication Theprocessbywhichabodyofwater(oftenshallow)becomesrichindissolvednutrients,likephosphorusandnitrogen.Sourcesforthesenutrientstypicallyincludeagriculturalfertilizersandsewage.

Evapotranspiration ThecombinedprocessofwaterevaporationfromEarthssurfaceandtranspirationfromvegetation.

Fossilfuel Fuelsformedbynaturalprocessessuchasanaerobic(intheabsenceofoxygen)decompositionofburieddeadorganisms.Theageoftheorganismsresultinginfossilfuelsistypicallymillionsofyears,andsometimesexceeds650millionyears.Fossilfuels,whichcontaincarbon,includecoal,petroleum,andnaturalgas.

Globalwarmingpotential(GWP)

Arelativemeasureofhowmuchheatagreenhousegastrapsintheatmosphere.ItcomparestheamountofheattrappedbyacertainmassofthegasinquestiontotheamountofheattrappedbyasimilarmassofCO2.GWPiscalculatedoveraspecifictimeinterval,commonly20,100,or500years.GWPisexpressedasafactorofCO2(whoseGWPisstandardizedto1).Forexample,the100yearGWPofmethaneaccordingtoIPCCsSecondAssessmentReportis21,whichmeansthatifthesamemassofmethaneandCO2wereintroducedintotheatmosphere,thatmethanewouldtrap21timesmoreheatthantheCO2overthenext100years.

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Term Definition

Greenhousegas(GHG) Greenhousegasesarethosegaseousconstituentsoftheatmosphere,bothnaturalandanthropogenic,thatabsorbandemitradiationatspecificwavelengthswithinthespectrumofinfraredradiationemittedbyEarthssurface,theatmosphere,andclouds.Thispropertycausesthegreenhouseeffect.Watervapor(H2O),CO2,nitrousoxide(N2O),methane(CH4),andozone(O3)aretheprimaryGHGsinEarthsatmosphere.Moreover,thereareanumberofentirelyhumanmadeGHGsintheatmosphere,suchasthehalocarbonsandotherchlorineandbrominecontainingsubstances.

GREETmodel ModeldevelopedbyArgonneNationalLaboratorythatprovidesestimatesofenergyuseandemissionsassociatedwithvehicleandfuelsystems.GREETcalculatesconsumptionoftotalenergy,fossilfuels,petroleum,coalandnaturalgas,emissionsofCO2equivalentgreenhousegases,andemissionsofcriteriapollutants.GREETisusedinthisEISanalysistomodelupstreamemissions.

GrossDomesticProduct(GDP)

Thetotalmarketvalueofallthegoodsandservicesproducedinaneconomyatagiventime.

Hybridelectricvehicle(HEV)

Typeofelectricvehiclethatincorporatesabatteryandelectricmotorsystemcoupledwithaninternalcombustionengine.

Hydrosphere Thecomponentoftheclimatesystemcomprisingliquidsurfaceandsubterraneanwater,suchasoceans,seas,rivers,freshwaterlakes,andundergroundwater.

Indirectimpacts Effectsthatarecausedbytheactionandarelaterintimeorfartherremovedindistance,butarestillreasonablyforeseeable.40CFR1508.8

Lifecycleassessment(LCA)

Ananalyticalmethodbasedonasystemsperspectiveusedtoevaluatetheenvironmentalimpactsofmaterials,products,processes,orsystemsthroughouttheirlifecycles.

Massreduction Massreductionreducesfuelconsumptionbydecreasingvehiclemasswhilemaintainingthesamevehiclesize.

MOVESmodel TheMotorVehicleEmissionSimulator(MOVES),developedbyEPA'sOfficeofTransportationandAirQuality,isamodelingsystemthatestimatesemissionsofcriteriapollutantsandtoxicairpollutantsforonroadmobilesources.MOVEScurrentlyestimatesemissionsfromcars,trucks,andmotorcycles,andisusedinthisEISanalysistomodeldownstreamemissions.

NEPAscopingprocess Anearlyandopenprocessfordeterminingthescopeofissuestobeaddressedandforidentifyingthesignificantissuesrelatedtoaproposedaction.

Nonattainmentarea RegionwhereconcentrationsofcriteriapollutantsexceedfederallimitsNationalAmbientAirQualityStandards.NonattainmentareasarerequiredtodevelopandimplementplanstocomplywiththeNationalAmbientAirQualityStandardswithinspecifiedperiods.

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Term Definition

Oceanacidification AdecreaseinthepHofseawaterduetotheuptakeofanthropogeniccarbondioxide.

Paleoclimatology ThestudyofclimatechangethroughthephysicalevidenceleftonEarthofhistoricalglobalclimatechange(priortothewidespreadavailabilityofrecordstotemperature,precipitation,andotherdata).

Permafrost Ground(soilorrockandincludediceandorganicmaterial)thatremainsatorbelowzerodegreesCelsiusforatleast2consecutiveyears.

Phenology Thestudyofnaturalphenomenainbiologicalsystemsthatrecurperiodically(developmentstages,migration)andtheirrelationshiptoclimateandseasonalchanges.

Pluginhybridelectricvehicle(PHEV)

Ahybridvehiclewithalargecapacityrechargeablebatterythatcanberechargedbypluggingintotheelectricalgridaswellasusingtheonboardchargingcapabilitiesofnormalhybrids(e.g.,regenerativebraking).Justlikeanormalhybridvehicle,apluginhybridalsoutilizesaninternalcombustionengineasabackupwhenbatterylifeisdepleted.

Photosyntheticnitrogenefficiency

Theamountofcarbonintheplantthatisconvertedtousablesugarsduringphotosynthesis.WithgreateratmosphericCO2,theamountofcarbonconvertedtosugarsisgreaterevenwhentheamountofnitrogenavailabletotheplantdoesnotchange.

Phototoxicity Anabnormaladversereactionofaplanttoultravioletradiationduringwhichatoxiccompoundinaplantcanbeproducedorenhanced.ThiscanbeexacerbatedbyenvironmentalpollutantsorincreasingUVradiation.

Primaryfuels Energysourcesconsumedintheinitialproductionofenergy.PrimaryfuelsusedintheUnitedStatesincludenuclearpower,hydropower,coal,naturalgas,andcrudeoil(convertedtopetroleumandotherliquidfuelsforconsumption).

Radiativeforcing MeasureofhowaclimaticfactorsuchasaGHGaffectstheenergybalanceoftheEarthatmospheresystem.ApositiveforcingtendstowarmtheEarthssurfacewhileanegativeforcingtendstocoolit.

Reboundeffect Aeffectwherebyimprovedfueleconomyreducesthefuelcostofdrivingandleadstoadditionaluseofpassengercarsandlighttrucks.

Quads InthisEIS,quadrillionBritishthermalunits.

Socialcostofcarbon(SCC)

Anestimateofthemonetizedclimaterelateddamagesassociatedwithanincrementalincreaseinannualcarbonemissions;theestimatedpriceofthedamagescausedbyeachtonofCO2releasedintotheatmosphere.

Survivalrate InthecontextofthisEIS,theproportionofvehiclesoriginallyproducedduringamodelyearexpectedtoremaininserviceattheagetheywillhavereachedduringeachsubsequentyear.

Stratification Thelayeringofwarmer,lessdensewaterovercolder,denserwater.

Technologies InthecontextofthisEIS,enginetechnologies,transmission,vehicle,electrification/accessory,andhybridtechnologiesthataffectfueleconomy.

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Term Definition

Tippingpoint Apointintheclimatesystematwhichisthereisastrongandamplifyingpositivefeedbackfromonlyamoderateadditionalchangeinadriver,suchasCO2ortemperatureincrease.

Toxicairpollutants Toxicairpollutants,alsoknownashazardousairpollutants,arethosepollutantsthatareknownorsuspectedtocausecancerorotherserioushealtheffects,suchasreproductiveeffectsorbirthdefects,oradverseenvironmentaleffects.EPAhasidentified188substancesastoxicairpollutants.

Trackwidth Thelateraldistancebetweenthecenterlinesofthebasetiresatground.

Transpiration Waterlossfromplantleaves.

Upstreamemissions Emissionsassociatedwithcrudepetroleumextractionandtransportation,andwiththerefining,storage,anddistributionoftransportationfuels.

UrbanHeatislandeffect

Phenomenonofconsistentlyhigherambienttemperaturesinmetropolitanregionscomparedtothesurroundingruralareas.Metropolitanregionshavemodifiedthelandsurfaceswithmaterials(e.g.,pavement)thatabsorbsolarenergy,therebyretainingheatwithinthelocalizedarea.

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