Finacial Sentiment Tracker October 1st

The Gold bubble – European economies

looking up – Aussie dollar in favor – BHP’s

Potash strategy reflects well

Media Tenor Financial Sentiment Tracker 2010 with focus on 17-30 September 2010

All Quoted Analysts in WSJ-FT-MINT-Les Echos-Il Sole-Barrons

Media Tenor International AG

Roland Schatz

[email protected]

+41-43 255 1920

Media Tenor International has been analyzing opinion-leading since 1994. This analysis is based on, 123 939 statements by citied analysts in select business

media: Financial Times, Les Echos, Expansion,Il Sole 24 ore, WSJ, Barron‘s, Mint, Financial News, Economist, Forbes. Media Tenor has evaluated more than

500 000 news stories in international TV news. Among its specialized analyses are political coverage, economic coverage, social values, technology and

financial sentiment data.

The Gold bubble – European economies looking up – Aussie dollar in favor – BHP’s Potash strategy refl ects well FINANCIAL SENTIMENT TRACKER – ANALYST CITATIONS IN ELITE BUSINESS PRESS

Zurich 1 October, 2010 Gold’s continual rise attrac ted the first serious “bubble” comments from cited analysts this week. However, the overall sent iment trend continues to track Gold’s soaring price. Despite the Irish bank crisis, European econ omy sentiment has risen. The positive trend in Spanish sentiment has played a large role. In compa ny news, the BHP deal has seen the company stand out in volume terms from other miners and JSE listed companies, while the Aussie dollar sentiment is a reflection of continued growth for A ustralian commodities.

Both George Soros and Credit Suisse were cited on the fears of a Gold bubble this week as the overall financial sentiment for the precious metal continued to rise. Gold has been held responsible for a corresponding rise in Silver price sentiment. An interesting facet for the Gold discussion is the contrast in the topic spread in the media. Unlike other metals, Gold’s sentiment rise is based on topics around speculation and the need to escape a continually uncertain economic media agenda. Media Tenor’s research director Matthias Vollbracht highlights the lessons that can be drawn from Gold at the moment, “We see Gold breaking away from its peers in terms of volume and moving into highly positive territory. When such a sentiment move is not underpinned with sound fundamentals then we can identify a bubble. Essentially, people are thinking too highly of an asset in this situation.” Vollbracht remains optimistic on the other metals, whose links to industrial demand and supply issues seem to support the rise in sentiment. “It is too early to say that Gold is the new Real Estate, but the fallacy in the logic will surely become apparent soon enough. “

One area that appears to have escaped the speculation and rumor mill is Europe. The overall EU sentiment shows a volatile trend but with a distinct trend upside. The good news is that the news flow is no longer just focusing on Germany, rather, the positions of Spain and Greece have also moved up in analyst opinion. The weak link in Euro sentiment at the moment is Ireland, whose banking crisis is in full swing. However, Vollbracht has identified key differences between the Irish crisis to the previous Euro Zone crises. “Ireland has not gone broke, it has not begged for money, and there is an feeling that it will be strong enough to recover and fund the solutions necessary for its Real Estate/Bank crisis. This makes Ireland different.” Vollbracht prefers to

look at how analysts are covering the jobs growth story in Germany – and its sign that the economic recovery sentiment is as sustainable as the recovery itself.





The Australian dollar is playing a key role in currency coverage, albeit under the larger story of a potential “currency war” between China and the US. The commodity driven Australian dollar has received glowing reports from analysts based on the demand for Australian goods in China. This story is a clear opportunity in the currency markets, which are otherwise in a quagmire of international relations and central bank indecision – at least as far as analyst perception is concerned. The difference in the ratings trend for analyst sentiment in the two weeks 17-30 September, show a clear differentiation of opinion and the move of the AUD into clear opportunity territory

Finally, BHP’s Potash adventure in Canada has made big news in the last few weeks. The non appearance of a Chinese counter bid for the Canadian fertilizer company has analysts growingly optimistic about the deal. “There was always a good degree of analyst positivity for the deal, but with the possible Chinese counter offer, and the US court case, everyone was a little reserved in their comments. Now it looks like a sound deal with a sound offer” says Vollbracht. However, the analyst data does suggest that the over-emphasis on M&A reporting in the European media may have blown this story out a little more than it may have deserved.

Media Tenor’s financial sentiment tracker will be released weekly at http://www.mediatenor.com.





It is fear and opportunity that are driving

Gold sentiment into bubble area.

Compared to its metallic peers, there is a

lack of supply and demand fundamentals,

and the flight to safety storyline.

Despite a ratings downgrade by Moody‘s

late in the month, the increase in Spanish

sentiment, growing trust in Greece‘s

austerity plans, and a continuing strong

perception of Western Europe, see overall

sentiment growing and few contagion

fears from Ireland.

Strong demand for Australian commodities

has seen the Australian dollar commented

on in a very positive way in the last two

weeks. This is a positive story underneath

the narrative of a potential trade/currency

war between the US and China.

BHP has made big news with its bid for

Potash. However, the complexity of the

deal, a US court case, and the potential

counter-bid from China, has meant that

analysts have only been lukewarm in terms

of a rating trend.

Finacial Sentiment Tracker October 1st

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