Fin 540 Mid_Term Latest Jan2014

8/9/2019 Fin 540 Mid_Term Latest Jan2014

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True

False

5. Question 5

)xcel can only "e used to simulate systems that can "e represented "y continuousrandom varia"les.

Answer

True

False

Question 6

*tartin' conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.Answer

True

False

Question 7

Data cannot exhi"it "oth trend and cyclical patterns.

Answer

True

False

Question 8


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+ualitative methods are the least common type of forecastin' method for the lon',termstrate'ic plannin' process.

Answer

True

False

Question 9

Assume that it ta#es a colle'e student an avera'e of - minutes to find a par#in' spot inthe main par#in' lot. Assume also that this time is normally distri"uted with a standarddeviation of 2 minutes. hat time is exceeded "y approximately $- of the colle'estudents when tryin' to find a par#in' spot in the main par#in' lot/

Answer3.7minutes

5.8minutes

6.4minutes9.2

minutes

Question 10

is a measure of dispersion of random varia"le values a"out theexpected value.

Answer

Standard deviation

Range

The z-score (the standard score)

!! o" the a#ove

Question 11

The is the expected value of the re'ret for each decision.Answer

e$%ected va!ue

e$%ected o%%ortunit& !oss


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e$%ected va!ue o" %er"ect in"ormation

none o" the a#ove

Question 12

Developin' the cumulative pro"a"ility distri"ution helps to determineAnswer

the coe'cient o" variation

data sets

random num#er ranges

a!! o" the a#ove

Question 13

Two hundred simulation runs were completed usin' the pro"a"ility of a machine"rea#down from the ta"le "elow. The avera'e num"er of "rea#downs from thesimulation trials was 1.9% with a standard deviation of 0.20.

No. of

breakdowns

per week

Probability Cumulativeprobability

0 .10 .10

1 .25 .35

2 .36 .1

3 .22 .93

! .0 1.00

hat is the pro"a"ility of 2 or fewer "rea#downs/

Answer.

.*5

.35

.7

Question 14

andom num"ers 'enerated "y a process instead of a


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process are pseudorandom num"ers.Answer

%h&sica! + %h&sica!

%h&sica! + mathematica!

mathematica! + %h&sica!

mathematica! + mathematica!

Question 15

onsider the followin' frequency of demand3

4f the simulation "e'ins with 0.5102! the simulated value for demand would "eAnswer

*

3

4

Question 16

is a cate'ory of statistical techniques that uses historical data topredict future "ehavior.

Answer

,ua!itative methods

Regression

Time series

,uantitative methods

Question 17

6iven the followin' data on the num"er of pints of ice cream sold at a local icecream store for a &,period time frame3


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4f the forecast for period - is equal to 2$-! use exponential smoothin' with 7 8 .(0 to compute a forecast for period $.

Answer

*73

*77*67.8

*86.*

Question 18

hich of the followin' possi"le values of alpha would cause exponentialsmoothin' to respond the most slowlyto sudden chan'es in forecast errors/

Answer

.

.

.5

.

Question 19

is the difference "etween the forecast and actual demand.Answer

orecast mista/e

orecast error

M0

orecast accurac&

Question 20

4n exponential smoothin'! the closer alpha is to ! the 'reater thereaction to the most recent demand.

Answer

-

- or

Question 21

onsider the followin' demand and forecast.

Period "emand #ore$ast

1 10

2 12 15


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3 1% 20

! 22

4f AD 8 2! what is the forecast for period (/Answer

*

**

*3

none o" the a#ove

Question 22

is a"solute error as a percenta'e of demand.Answer

1umu!ative error

M0

M20

verage error

Question 23

oefficient of determination is the percenta'e of the variation in the varia"le that results from the varia"le.Answer

de%endent de%endent

inde%endent de%endent

de%endent inde%endent

inde%endent inde%endent

Question 24

onsider the followin' 'raph of sales.


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hich of the followin' characteristics is exhi"ited "y the data/Answer

Trend on!&

Trend %!us seasona!

Seasona! on!&

one o" the a#ove

Question 25

A loaf of "read is normally distri"uted with a mean of 22 o: and a standard

deviation of 0.- o:. hat is the pro"a"ility that a loaf is lar'er than 21 o:/ound your answer to four places after the decimal.

Answer

Question 26

A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume thatthe pro"a"ility distri"ution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately anormal distri"ution with a mean of &5 years and a standard deviation of ( years.hat proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments "eyond a'e $-/ound your answer to four places after the decimal.

Answer

Question 27

An online sweepsta#es has the followin' payoffs and pro"a"ilities. )ach personis limited to one entry.


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The pro"a"ility of winnin' at least ;1!000.00 is .Answer

- pointsQuestion 28

A fair die is rolled 5 times. hat is the pro"a"ility that an even num"er


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,100 %00 ,-0 10D 2- 2- 2- 2-

4f the pro"a"ilities of each economic condition are 0.-! 0.1! 0.%-! and 0.0-respectively! what is the hi'hest expected payoff/

Answer

Question 31

6iven the followin' random num"er ran'es and the followin' random num"ersequence3 &2! 1%! 2-! (0! 5&! 9%! determine the avera'e demand for thefollowin' distri"ution of demand.

"emand

&andom

Number &an'es

5 00(1!

6 15(!!

!5(69

% 0(%!

9 %5(99

Answer

Question 32

o"ert wants to #now if there is a relation "etween money spent on 'am"lin' andwinnin's.


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hat is the coefficient of determination/ ote3 please report your answer with 2 placesafter the decimal point.

Answer

Question 33

This is the data from the last ( wee#s3

Bse the equation of the re'ression line to forecast the increased sales for when thenum"er of ads is 10.

Answer

Question 34

The followin' data summari:es the historical demand for a product.

)ont* +$tual

"emand

)ar$* 20

+pril 25

)ay !0

,une 35

,uly 30

+u'ust !5


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Bse exponential smoothin' with 7 8 .2 and the smoothed forecast for Culy is %2.Determine the smoothed forecast for Au'ust.

Answer

Question 35

onsider the followin' annual sales data for 2001,2005.

-ear ales

2001 2

2002 !

2003 10

200! %

2005 1!

2006 1%

200 1

200% 20

alculate the correlation coefficient . Bse four si'nificant di'its after the decimal.Answer

Question 36

The followin' sales data are availa"le for 200%,2005.


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Determine a (,year wei'hted movin' avera'e forecast for 2009! where wei'hts are 18 0.1! 2 8 0.2! % 8 0.2 and ( 8 0.-.

Answer

Question 37

Daily hi'hs in *acramento for the past wee#


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200! 12 10

2005 1! 15

2006 20 22

200 16 1%

200% 25 21

alculate the a"solute value of the avera'e error. Bse three si'nificant di'its after thedecimal.

Answer

Fin 540 Mid_Term Latest Jan2014

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