Filling the Generation Gap Sustainably Both From an Economic and Environmental Perspective

Michelle Lau ‘12

Environmental Defense Fund, Summer 2011

Environmental Defense Fund (EDF)

This summer: EDF’s NYC Office in the

Office of Economic Policy and Analysis

Non-profit, advocacy organization Focus on environmental issues in areas of

climate, oceans, ecosystems, and health Solutions combine science, economics, and

law

Generation Gap Study Characterize the current generation capacity Use a model to determine the composition of

the power system over the next 30 years Understand the potential technology choices

to fill the gap Use a model to see how the power system

should evolve Research and determine which policies to

pursue to achieve the desired output

Current Capacity and Generation

Capacity vs. Generation

Part I – Characterize Existing Generation Capacity: Base Case

Base Case – Gap appears in 2020 By 2030, the percentage of coal generation

capacity is less than capacity of natural gas generation

Baseline Retirement Settings

Coal Retirement Age 50

Oil Retirement Age 40

Natural Gas Retirement Age 40

Nuclear Retirement Age 40

Peak Demand Growth Rate 1.5%

EPA Regulations Moderate

Efficiency/DR Peak Reduction (2010, 2020, 2030, 2040)

18 GW; 79 GW;

157 GW; 157 GW;

Part II – Technology Choices Biomass Coal Geothermal Power Hydropower Natural Gas Nuclear Solar Power Storage/Transmission Wind Power

Technology Background

Technical Potential Costs and

Emissions Barriers to

Implementation

Part III – Policy Second Capacity Model EPA Regulations Industry reports vs. Congressional reports

Still in progress!

Reflections Worked both independently and as a member

of a team Participated in many intern events Broadened knowledge about various

environmental and energy issues Gained experience in the non-profit sector Explored New York City

Thank You! Gernot Wagner, Economist, Environmental

Defense Fund Pearl Donohoo, Graduate Student, MIT Environmental Defense Fund Grand Challenges Internship Program