Figure 1.1 … · 2007-07-19 · Figure 1.1...
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Figure 1.1 Estimated population of Scotland, actual and projected, 1951-2031 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Year at 30 June Persons ('000s) 1 2004-based projections. Actual Projected 1 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Transcript of Figure 1.1 … · 2007-07-19 · Figure 1.1...
Figure 1.1 Estimated population of Scotland, actual and projected, 1951-2031
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Year at 30 June
Per
sons
('000
s)
1 2004-based projections.
Actual Projected 1
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
0
Year to 30 June
Per
sons
('000
s)
Natural Change (births-deaths)
Net Migration
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
10
20
30
40
50
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Figure 1.2 Natural change and net migration, 1951-2006
Figure 1.3 Estimated population by age and sex, 30 June 2006
FemalesMales
Age
50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
56
60
64
68
72
76
80
84
88
Persons ('000s)
Figure 1.4 The changing age structure of Scotland's population, 1996-2006
Age group
Pers
ons
('000s)
1996
2006
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75 +
-10%-7%
-2%
+14%
+4%
+13%
> +5
0 to 5
-5 to 0
< -5
Perth & Kinross
Angus
Shetland
Dundee City
Aberdeen City
Stirling Fife
Falkirk
Argyll& Bute
East Lothian
Scottish Borders
City ofEdinburgh
MidlothianWest
Lothian
EastAyrshire
67
4
8
SouthLanarkshire
North Ayrshire
1 23
5
Dumfries & Galloway
SouthAyrshire
Orkney
Eilean Siar
Highland Moray
Aberdeenshire
Numbered Areas
1. West Dunbartonshire2. East Dunbartonshire3. North Lanarkshire4. Glasgow City5. East Renfrewshire6. Renfrewshire7. Inverclyde8. Clackmannanshire
Figure 1.5 Percentage population change by Council area, 1996-2006
Year
Per
sons
(’000
s)
Births
Deaths
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
1 Calendar year.2 2004-based mid-year projections.
Actual1 2Projected
Figure 1.6 Births and deaths, actual and projected, Scotland, 1951-2031
Figure 1.7 The projected percentage change in age structure of Scotland’s population,2004-20311
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+
Age Group
Per
cent
age
Cha
nge
1 2004-based projections
-15% -12%-18%
-11%
+39%
+75%
Dep
end
ency
ratio
(per
thou
sand
wor
king
pop
ulat
ion)
ChildrenPensionable AgeAll Dependants
1 2004-based projections
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028
Year ending 30 June
Figure 1.8 Dependency Ratios1 (per thousand working population), 2004-2028
Figure 1.9 Projected percentage population change in selected European countries 2004-2031B
ulga
ria
Latv
ia
Rom
ania
Est
onia
Lith
uani
a
Hun
gary
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
EU
new
mem
ber
s (2
004)
Pol
and
Slo
vaki
a
Ger
man
y
Italy
Sco
tland
Slo
veni
a
Por
tuga
l
Gre
ece
EU
25
Den
mar
k
EU
15
Finl
and
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Sp
ain
Net
herla
nds
Nor
ther
n Ire
land
Fran
ce
Wal
es
Sw
eden UK
Eng
land
Mal
ta
Irela
nd
Luxe
mb
ourg
Cyp
rus
Per
cent
age
Cha
nge
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Source: GAD (UK and constituent countries) and Eurostat. Eurostat also produce an alternative UK projection notshown here. See “Appendix 2 – Notes and Definitions” for definition of EU15 and EU25.
Births
Deaths
Year
Per
sons
(’00
0s)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Figure 1.10 Births and deaths, Scotland, 1951-2006
Figure 1.11 Estimated female population aged 15-44 and general fertility rate (GFR),Scotland, 1951-2006
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Women aged15-44 (’000s)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
GFR
Females aged 15-44GFR (live births per 1,000 women aged 15-44)
Year
Figure 1.12 Live births per 1,000 women, by age of mother, Scotland, 1951-2006
Year
Fert
ility
rate
0
50
100
150
200
250
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
15-19 20-24 25-29
30-34 35-39 40-44
Age of mother
Fert
ility
rate
0
50
100
150
200
250
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
1951
1964
1977
1991
2006
Figure 1.13 Live births per 1,000 women, by age, selected years
Figure 1.14 Total fertility rate, Scotland, 1951-2006
Year
Tota
lfer
tility
rate
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Figure 1.15 Cumulative cohort fertility rate for selected birth cohorts, Scotland
Age
Cum
ulat
ive
coho
rtfe
rtili
tyra
te
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
Year
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Total fertility rate
England
Wales
Scotland
N Ireland
Figure 1.16 Total fertility rates, UK countries, 1971-2006
Rat
e
Infant
PerinatalStillbirth
* Change in definition of stillbirths from 28 to 24 weeks’ gestation
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
October1992*
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
Figure 1.17 Stillbirth, perinatal and infant death rates, per 1,000 total births, Scotland 1971-2006
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
45-64
65-74
75+
Year
Per
cent
age
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Per
cent
age
Males Females
45-64
65-74
75+
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
Figure 1.18 Age specific mortality rates as a proportion of 1981 rate, 1981-2006
Year
Age
MalesFemales
1 2004-based projections. Data after 2004 are projected.
1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
Figure 1.19 Expectation of life at birth1, Scotland, 1981-2031
110 >
100 - 109
90 - 99
< 89
Perth & Kinross
Angus
Shetland
Dundee City
Aberdeen City
Stirling Fife
Falkirk
Argyll& Bute
East Lothian
Scottish Borders
City ofEdinburgh
MidlothianWest
Lothian
EastAyrshire
67
4
8
SouthLanarkshire
North Ayrshire
1 23
5
Dumfries & Galloway
SouthAyrshire
Orkney
Eilean Siar
Highland Moray
Aberdeenshire
Numbered Areas
1. West Dunbartonshire2. East Dunbartonshire3. North Lanarkshire4. Glasgow City5. East Renfrewshire6. Renfrewshire7. Inverclyde8. Clackmannanshire
Figure 1.20 Standardised mortality ratios, by Council area, 2006
Rateper 100,000population
Males Females
Rate per 100,000 population
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Cancer Ischaemic heart disease
Cerebrovascular disease
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Cancer Ischaemic heart disease
Cerebrovascular disease
Scotland Wales England Northern IrelandSource: ONS
Figure 1.21 Age-adjusted mortality rates, by selected cause and sex, 2005
Males Females
Perc
enta
ge o
f dea
ths
Perc
enta
ge o
f dea
ths
Other
Suicides
Mental disordersRespiratory diseaseCerebrovascular disease
Ischaemic heart diseaseCancerAccidents
Age group
75+65-7455-6445-54Age group
35-4415-341-14 75+65-7455-6445-5435-4415-341-140
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Figure 1.22 Deaths, by cause and age group, Scotland, 2006
Year to 30 June
Per
sons
('00
0s)
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Source: National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) patient movements.
Figure 1.23 Estimated net migration, Scotland, 1951-2006
Figure 1.24 Movements to/from the rest of the UK, 1981 to 2006
Year
Per
sons
(’00
0s)
Out to Rest of UK
In from Rest of UK
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Source: National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) patient movements.
Age
Num
ber
of M
ales
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Males
Females
Age
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
-2,000
Moves from Scotland
Moves to Scotland
Net Migration
Moves from Scotland
Moves to Scotland
Net Migration
Num
ber
of F
emal
es
2,500
Figure 1.25 Movements between Scotland and the rest of the UK, by age, mid-2005 to mid-2006
Age group
Pers
ons
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75 +
2004
2005
2003
2002
2001
INNET
NET OUT
2006
Source: National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) patient movements.
Figure 1.26 Net movements between Scotland and the rest of the UK by age group, 2001-2006
0 to +5
-5 to 0
> +5
< -5
Perth & Kinross
Angus
Dundee City
Aberdeen City
Stirling Fife
Falkirk
Argyll& Bute
East Lothian
Scottish Borders
City ofEdinburgh
MidlothianWest
Lothian
EastAyrshire
67
4
8
SouthLanarkshire
North Ayrshire
1 23
5
Dumfries & Galloway
SouthAyrshire
Orkney
Eilean Siar
Highland Moray
Aberdeenshire
Numbered Areas
1. West Dunbartonshire2. East Dunbartonshire3. North Lanarkshire4. Glasgow City5. East Renfrewshire6. Renfrewshire7. Inverclyde8. Clackmannanshire
Figure 1.27 Net migration rates for Council areas, 1996 to 2006
Mar
riage
s (’0
00s)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Year
Figure 1.28 Marriages, Scotland, 1971-2006
Per
cent
age
of m
arria
ges
Widowed DivorcedSingle
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
M F M F M F M F M F1971 1981 1991 20062001
Figure 1.29 Marriages, by marital status and sex of persons marrying, 1971-2006
Num
ber o
f mar
riage
s (’0
00s)
Year
Civil
Other Religious
Roman Catholic
Church of Scotland
1
Includes very small numbers of ‘irregular’ marriages established by Decree of Declarator of the Court of Session.1
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Figure 1.30 Marriages, by type of ceremony, 1971-2006
Year
Div
orce
s (’0
00s)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 20062001
Figure 1.31 Divorces, Scotland, 1971-2006
Per
cent
age
of d
ivor
ces
0
20
40
60
80
100
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
BehaviourAdultery
Desertion**
Non-cohabitation, with consent (2 years)**
Non-cohabitation (5 years)** 2 years separation*
1 year separation, with consent*
* New categories introduced with effect from 4 May 2006 by the Family Law (Scotland) Act, 2006** Categories not used after 4 May 2006
Figure 1.32 Number of divorces, by grounds for divorce, Scotland, 1981-2006
2004
2024
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1 adult 2 adults 1 adult withchild(ren)
2+ adults withchild(ren)
3+ adults
Household type
Num
ber
ofho
useh
old
s(’0
00s)
Figure 1.33 Projected households in Scotland by household type: 2004 and 2024
Figure 1.34 Projected households in Scotland by age of head of household: 2004 and 2024
2004
2024
Num
ber
ofho
useh
old
s(’0
00s)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75-84 85+
Age of head of household
