Fighting Climate Change:Human Solidarity in a Divided

World

by

Bubu Pateh Jallow, Vice Chair of the IPCC Science Working Group

Lead Author, Coordinating Lead Author and Review Editor of IPCC ReportsChair of the LDC Expert Group

Launching the 2007 Human Development ReportBanjul, March 2008

Content of the Presentation• Greenhouse emissions and ConcentrationsConcentrations

• ObservedObserved Climate Change• ProjectedProjected Climate Change• Climate Change ImpactsImpacts with particular reference

to Africa and The Gambia• Mitigating Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions with

particular reference to Africa and The Gambia• Adapting to Climate Change with particular

reference to Africa and The Gambia• Mechanisms for Political and international Political and international

cooperationcooperation in the a divided world• Recommendations for Future ActionFuture Action

Aggregate Contributions of Major GHG Aggregate Contributions of Major GHG Emitting CountriesEmitting Countries

Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in The Gambia

• A total of A total of 181 Gg of Carbon Dioxide were 181 Gg of Carbon Dioxide were emitted emitted into the atmosphere while about into the atmosphere while about 50,000 Gg were removed 50,000 Gg were removed from the from the atmosphere by various socio-economic atmosphere by various socio-economic activities conducted in The Gambia in 1993. activities conducted in The Gambia in 1993.

• Base in the Global Warming Potential Index this Base in the Global Warming Potential Index this translates to a translates to a total uptake of about 45 total uptake of about 45 Million Tons of COMillion Tons of CO2 2 Equivalent Equivalent

• With a population of 1,025,867, With a population of 1,025,867, the per capita the per capita uptake is 44.2 Tons COuptake is 44.2 Tons CO2 2 Equivalents/capita.Equivalents/capita.

Global-average radiative forcing Global-average radiative forcing estimates and rangesestimates and ranges

Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change

Gobal mean temperature

Global averagesea level

Northern hemisphereSnow cover

Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time

100 0.0740.018

50 0.1280.026

Warmest 12 years:1990, 1995, 1997, 1998,1999, 2000, 2001,

1002, 2003, 2004, 2005,2006

Period Rate

Years /decade

Projections of Future Changes in Climate

Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C).

Broadly consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable

Equilibrium Climate SensitivitySurface warming following a sustained doubling of CO2

concentrations

Best estimate 3°C;

likely 2-4.5°C;

very unlikely less

than 1.5°C;

higher values

not ruled out

Projections of Future Changes in Climate

•Projected warming expected to be •greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes

•and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean

Projections of Future Changes in Climate

•Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes

•Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions

The most important spatial pattern (top) of the monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2002.

The time series (below) accounts for most of the trend in PDSI.

Drought is increasing in most placesMainly decrease in rain

over land in tropics and subtropics, but

enhanced by increased atmospheric demand (evaporation) (evaporation) with

warming

Projected Changes in ClimateProjected Changes in Climatein The Gambiain The Gambia

•On the average, by 2075, mean temperature of The Gambia is estimated to increase by 33ooC to 4.5C to 4.5ooCC depending on the GCM used.

•By 2100, rainfall in The Gambia is expected to vary from -59% to +29%. -59% to +29%.

•Little change is estimated in solar radiation (-5% to + 6%) (-5% to + 6%) by 2100.

WHAT DOES THIS SCIENCE WHAT DOES THIS SCIENCE PROJECT ION MEAN FOR AFRICA PROJECT ION MEAN FOR AFRICA

AND THE GAMBIAAND THE GAMBIA

•What are the potential IMPACTS of What are the potential IMPACTS of the Climate Changesthe Climate Changes

•Are we ready for the Challenges Are we ready for the Challenges posed by the IMPACTSposed by the IMPACTS

Agricultural production and food securityAgricultural production and food security• By 2080, arid and semi-arid land in Africa By 2080, arid and semi-arid land in Africa could

increase by 5-8% (60-90 million hectares).(60-90 million hectares).

• Crop net revenues will likely fall by as much as 90% by 2100, with small-scale farms being the most affected.

• It is estimated that by 2100, parts of the sub-Sahara Africa will likely experience agricultural losses of agricultural losses of between 2 and 7% of the GDPbetween 2 and 7% of the GDP

• In The Gambia Grain Production will decrease In The Gambia Grain Production will decrease while while Groundnut Production will increase Groundnut Production will increase (Be Cautioned)(Be Cautioned)

• Productivity of The River Gambia will Productivity of The River Gambia will increase in the increase in the short termshort term but will but will decrease in the long termdecrease in the long term

• Rangeland productivity will decrease in The Gambia Rangeland productivity will decrease in The Gambia and hence livestock will be affected.and hence livestock will be affected.

Already Bad Situation of Water Already Bad Situation of Water Resources will be exacerbatedResources will be exacerbated

• The population at risk The population at risk of increased water of increased water stress stress in Africa is projected to be between in Africa is projected to be between 75-250 million people by 202075-250 million people by 2020 and 350-600 and 350-600 million people by the 2050million people by the 2050..

• A 3°C temperature increase A 3°C temperature increase could lead to could lead to 0.4 0.4 – 1.8 billion more people at risk of water – 1.8 billion more people at risk of water stress.stress.

• Reduced rainfall will lead to reduction in Reduced rainfall will lead to reduction in Groundwater availability Groundwater availability particularly in the particularly in the UPPER AQUIFER UPPER AQUIFER from which from which most of the most of the water supply for The Gambia is withdrawnwater supply for The Gambia is withdrawn

• Reduced rainfall will lead to Reduced rainfall will lead to reduced reduced freshwater availability in the River Gambiafreshwater availability in the River Gambia and so more and so more saline intrusion into the Riversaline intrusion into the River

Inundation and Erosion of low-lying lands will be exacerbated by climate variability

and change, impacting severely on coastal settlements• Projected sea level rise would increase Projected sea level rise would increase

flooding, particularly on the coasts of flooding, particularly on the coasts of eastern Africa;eastern Africa;

• Sea level rise will likely increase the high socioeconomic and physical vulnerability of coastal cities.

• Sea Level Rise of one metre will inundate inundate the Capital City the Capital City (Banjul) (Banjul) of The Gambiaof The Gambia

• The cost of adaptation to sea level rise The cost of adaptation to sea level rise could amount to at least 5-10% of GDP.could amount to at least 5-10% of GDP.

Anthropogenic Climate Change will negatively impact Human

health in Africa

•A 5-7% potential increase A 5-7% potential increase (mainly altitudinal) in malaria distribution is in malaria distribution is projected,projected, with little increase in the latitudinal extent of the disease by 2100.

• It is estimated that by the 2080s an It is estimated that by the 2080s an additional additional 80 million people will likely 80 million people will likely be at risk of malaria.be at risk of malaria.

WE MUST FACE THE WE MUST FACE THE CHALLENGECHALLENGE

In two waysIn two ways

1.Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Concentrations into the Atmosphere

2.Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change

Mitigation of Greenhouse GasesOn mitigation, the GHDR calls on developed countries to demonstrate leadership by demonstrate leadership by cutting greenhouse gas emissions cutting greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% of 1990 levels by 2050 80% of 1990 levels by 2050 andand Developing countries cut emissions by 20% of 20% of 1990 levels by 2050. 1990 levels by 2050.

The report advocates a mix of carbon carbon taxation, more stringent cap-and-trade taxation, more stringent cap-and-trade programmes, energy regulation, and programmes, energy regulation, and international cooperation international cooperation on financing for low-carbon technology transfer.

All sectors and regions have the potential to All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute to contribute to Mitigation of EmissionsMitigation of Emissions

Mitigation of GHG Emissions in Mitigation of GHG Emissions in The GambiaThe Gambia• Rural electrification using solar generators;

• Greenhouse Gas Abatement using Improved Improved Cooking StovesCooking Stoves to reduce fuelwood reduce fuelwood consumption: consumption: Project proposal of US $ 20 Project proposal of US $ 20 Million over a Million over a 20 year horizon to serve 20 year horizon to serve 25,000 households nationwide25,000 households nationwide

• Reducing COReducing CO22 emissions emissions from organic waste combustion through composting: through composting: Project Proposal of US $ 1.4 Million US $ 1.4 Million covering a period of covering a period of 15 year horizon 15 year horizon

Mitigation of GHG emissions in Mitigation of GHG emissions in The Gambia The Gambia

• Fuel Switching through Replacement of fuelwood by liquefied petroleum gas: Project Proposal at a cost of US $ 3.9 Million US $ 3.9 Million to increase Penetration of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) over a period of 30 years and covering 18,000 households

• Carbon sequestration through forest management: A Project Proposal at a cost of US $ 2.6 Million US $ 2.6 Million on Reforestation and popularisation of community forestry for a 7 year horizon and to cover 7,400 hectares.

• Effectiveness of policies depends on national Effectiveness of policies depends on national circumstances, their design, interaction, stringency and circumstances, their design, interaction, stringency and implementationimplementation• Integrating climate policies in broader development

policies • Regulations and standards • Taxes and charges • Tradable permits • Financial incentives• Voluntary agreements • Information instruments • Research and development

Policies are available to governments to Policies are available to governments to realise mitigation of climate changerealise mitigation of climate change

Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

• Africa has developed several copings Africa has developed several copings strategies to adapt to current climate strategies to adapt to current climate variability but these will be inadequate to variability but these will be inadequate to adapt to climate change;adapt to climate change;

• A range of factors including A range of factors including wealth, wealth, technology, education, information, skills, technology, education, information, skills, infrastructure, access to resources, and infrastructure, access to resources, and various psychological factors and various psychological factors and management capabilities determine the management capabilities determine the adaptive capacity of a nation or continent.adaptive capacity of a nation or continent.

• Africa is very poor in most of these factors;Africa is very poor in most of these factors;

HENCE, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY HENCE, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OF AFRICA IS VERY LOWOF AFRICA IS VERY LOW

What are Ranges of Adaptation What are Ranges of Adaptation MeasuresMeasures

• Emerging range of livelihood adaptation practices being observed in parts of Africa include:•Diversification of livelihood activities, • Institutional architecture;•Adjustments in farming operations; • Income-generation projects; •Migration to earn an income and make

remittance; and • The move towards off- or non-farm livelihood

incomes.

What are Ranges of Adaptation What are Ranges of Adaptation MeasuresMeasures

Rehabilitation of natural coastal buffers such as mangroves and coral reefs and provision of alternate livelihood options to relieve the root causes of destruction of coastal buffers.

Improve risk and disaster management capacity

Increase institutional capacity to implement integrated coastal zone management, including climate change effects on productive coastal systems, in particular in the water, fisheries and coastal agriculture sectors.

Suggested Adaptation Activities Suggested Adaptation Activities in Africain Africa

Implementation of measures at community levelImplementation of measures at community level• Water harvesting techniquesWater harvesting techniques• Introduction of drought resistant varieties of Introduction of drought resistant varieties of

local cropslocal crops• Facilitation of food banksFacilitation of food banks• Promotion of irrigationPromotion of irrigation

Implementation of demonstration projects to Implementation of demonstration projects to improve capacity and awareness for sustainable improve capacity and awareness for sustainable water management including:water management including:• Run-off dikes to capture rainfallRun-off dikes to capture rainfall• Promotion of water efficient technologiesPromotion of water efficient technologies• Introduction and dissemination of ‘drip Introduction and dissemination of ‘drip

irrigation’ techniquesirrigation’ techniques

Suggested Adaptation Activities Suggested Adaptation Activities in Africain Africa

Specific Adaptation Measures for Specific Adaptation Measures for The GambiaThe Gambia

Focus Options (s)

Agriculture 1. Diversification and Intensification of Agricultural Production, Processing, and Marketing (US $ 3.71 Million)

2. Improved livestock and rangeland management for food security and environmental sustainability (US $ 2.8 Million)

Coastal Zone

1. Restoration/Protection of coastal environments (US $ 2.3 Million)

Fisheries 1. Improving productivity and safety in artisanal fishing operations (US $ 300,000)

Forestry 1. Expansion of Community Participation in the Management of Forests and Protected Areas (US $ 4.23 Million)

2. Expansion and Intensification of Agro-forestry and Re-forestation Activities (US $ 8.15 Million)

Health 1. Reduction of disease burden related to climate change (US $ 1.217 Million)

Water Resources

1. Rehabilitation of Early Warning Systems on Climate Related Natural Hazards (US $ 450,000)

2. Improvement of Fresh Water Availability (US $ 1.1 Million)

1. Develop a multilateral framework for avoiding dangerous climate change under the post-2012 Kyoto Protocol and Strengthen the framework for international cooperation

Stronger Political Will and Stronger Political Will and International CooperationInternational Cooperation

Recommendations based on the GHDR

Stronger Political Will and Stronger Political Will and International CooperationInternational Cooperation

• At COP 13 in Bali, At COP 13 in Bali, a comprehensive process was a comprehensive process was launched to enable the full, effective and sustained launched to enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the implementation of the Convention through long-term Convention through long-term cooperative action, now, up to and beyond 2012, cooperative action, now, up to and beyond 2012, in in order to reach an agreed outcome.order to reach an agreed outcome.

• The agreed outcome will addressThe agreed outcome will address

(a)(a) A shared vision for long-term cooperative action, A shared vision for long-term cooperative action, including a long-term global goal for emission reductions, including a long-term global goal for emission reductions,

(b) (b) Enhanced national/international action on mitigation of Enhanced national/international action on mitigation of climate change;climate change;

(c) (c) Enhanced action on adaptationEnhanced action on adaptation, including, international , including, international cooperation to support urgent implementation of adaptation cooperation to support urgent implementation of adaptation actions, risk management and risk reduction strategies, actions, risk management and risk reduction strategies, disaster reduction strategies , economic diversification to disaster reduction strategies , economic diversification to build resilience; and ways to strengthen the catalytic role of build resilience; and ways to strengthen the catalytic role of the Convention. the Convention.

(d) (d) Enhanced action on technology development and transfer Enhanced action on technology development and transfer to support action on mitigation and adaptation,to support action on mitigation and adaptation,

(e) (e) Enhanced action on the provision of financial resources Enhanced action on the provision of financial resources and investment to support and investment to support action on mitigation and action on mitigation and adaptation and technology cooperation,adaptation and technology cooperation,

Stronger Political Will and Stronger Political Will and International CooperationInternational Cooperation

2. Put in place policies for sustainable carbon budgeting—the agenda for mitigation

3. Put climate change adaptation at the centre of the post-2012 Kyoto framework and international partnerships for poverty reduction

Review of The Kyoto Protocol Review of The Kyoto Protocol andand

Enhance Contribution of Carbon Enhance Contribution of Carbon MarketsMarkets

Recommendations based on the GHDRRecommendations based on the GHDR

Review of The Kyoto Review of The Kyoto ProtocolProtocol

• COP/MOP 3 also Agreed that COP/MOP 3 also Agreed that the second review of the Kyoto the second review of the Kyoto Protocol shall aim to further enhance the implementation of the Protocol shall aim to further enhance the implementation of the Protocol Protocol and further elaborate upon a number of its elements, and further elaborate upon a number of its elements, in in particular adaptationparticular adaptation;;

• The Second Review The Second Review shall attempt shall attempt to address the issues to address the issues of of

(a) Extending the share of proceeds to assist in meeting the costs of adaptation to joint implementation and emissions trading;

(b) The scope, effectiveness and functioning of the flexibility mechanisms, including ways and means to enhance an equitable regional distribution of CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM projects;

(c) The minimization of adverse effects of climate change, effects on international trade, and social, environmental and economic impacts on other Parties

The Carbon Market has the Potential

• In negotiations on a successor pact to the Kyoto Protocol that will assist in the avoidance of dangerous climate change, efforts must be directed to Mobilizing Finance for the Climate Challenge;

• Predictable carbon pricing is needed to direct world investment flows toward an economy that could minimize climate change,

• Sufficiently high and long-term predictable price for carbon will be central for mobilizing capital for the new economy,

• As regards to financing to meet the challenges of global warming,

1. the Adaptation Fund of the Kyoto Protocol must urgently and quickly become operational to ‘climate proof’ vulnerable economies,

2. the Clean Development Mechanism of the Protocol, which has the potential to generate up to $100 billion of investment flowing from North to South into clean and green energy projects, needed to be supplemented by significant contributions from industrialized countries.

• Developing countries need all the financial and technical assistance in order to make the transition to lower carbon economies

The Carbon Market has the Potential

The Human Development Report argues for reforms including:• Additional financing Additional financing for climate proofing infrastructure

and building resilience,

• Northern governments Northern governments should allocate at least $86 allocate at least $86 billion annually by 2015billion annually by 2015 (0.2% of projected GDP).

• Increased international support for the development of development of sub-Saharan Africa’s capacitysub-Saharan Africa’s capacity to monitor climate and improve public access to meteorological information.

• The integration/mainstreaming of adaptation integration/mainstreaming of adaptation planning into wider plans, programmes and planning into wider plans, programmes and strategies strategies for reducing poverty and extreme inequalities, including PRSPs.

Recommendations based on the GHDR

1. The UNDP Global Human Development Report: Fighting climate change concludes that “one of the hardest lessons hardest lessons taught by climate change is that the historically carbon intensive the historically carbon intensive growthgrowth, and the profligate consumption in rich the profligate consumption in rich nationsnations that has accompanied it, is ecologically is ecologically unsustainable.unsustainable.”

2. But the Report further argues, “with the right with the right reforms,reforms, it is not too late it is not too late to cut greenhouse gas emissions to sustainable levels without sacrificing economic growth: rising prosperity and climate rising prosperity and climate security are not conflicting objectivessecurity are not conflicting objectives.”

Conclusions and Conclusions and Recommendations of GHDRRecommendations of GHDR

Ban Ki Moon – UN Secretary General

•““we know enough we know enough to act; if we do to act; if we do not act now the impact of climate not act now the impact of climate

change will be devastating; change will be devastating; we we have affordable measures and have affordable measures and

technologies to begin technologies to begin addressing the addressing the problem right problem right

nownow; but ; but

what we do not have is time”what we do not have is time”..

Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor of California, of California,

The GHDR has made it clear that under Climate Change•We are a divided world•Bounded by Common but differentiated

Responsibility•But as Arnold told the Heads of States and

Governments at the UN General Assembly:

““rich nations and poor nations have common rich nations and poor nations have common but different responsibilities, but one but different responsibilities, but one

responsibility that all nations have now is responsibility that all nations have now is

actionaction””. .

HENCE THE HENCE THE TIMETIME

TOTO ACT ACT

ISIS NOW NOW

THANK THANK YOUYOU