Статистички годишник на

Република Македонија

Statistical yearbook of the

Republic of Macedonia

2015

152015

L

LA POPULATION DES BALKANSÀ L 'AUBE DU XXIÈME SIÈCLE

THE POPULATION OF THE BALKANSAT THE DAWN OF THE 21ST CENTURY

CINQUIÈME CONFÉRENCE INTERNATIONALE DE DÉMOGRAPHIE DES BALKANS

DEMOBALK, DEMOGRAPHIE DES BALKAN / DEMOGRAPHY OF THE BALKANS UNIVERSITÉ SAINTS CYRILLE ET MÉTHODE DE SKOPJE,

INSTIT UT D'ÉC ONOMIE – SKOPJE

UNIVERSITY SS. CYRIL AND METHODI US IN SKOPJE,INSTIT UTE OF ECONOMI C S – SKOPJE

LIVRE D ES RESUMES / BOOK OF ABSTRACTS

ORGANISÉ AVEC LE SO UTIEN DE / ORGANISED WITH THE SUPPORT OF

OHRID, RÉPUBLIQUE DE MACÉDOINE, 21 – 24 OCTOBRE 2015

FIFTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE BALKANS DEMOGRAPHY

OHRID, REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA, 21 – 24 OCTOBER 2015

„ “

„ “

LA POPULATION DES BALKANSÀ L'AUBE DU XXIÈME SIÈCLE

THE POPULATION OF THE BALKANSAT THE DAWN OF THE 21ST CENTURY

CINQUIÈME CONFÉRENCE INTERNATIONALE DE DÉMOGRAPHIE DES BALKANS

DemoBalk, Demographie Des Balkan / Demography of the Balkans Université, saints Cyrille et méthoDe De skopje,

institUt D'éConomie – skopje

University ss. Cyril anD methoDiUs in skopje,institUte of eConomiCs – skopje

livre Des resUmes / Book of aBstraCts

OHRID, RÉPUBLIQUE DE MACÉDOINE, 21 – 24 OCTOBRE 2015

FIFTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE BALKANS DEMOGRAPHY

OHRID, REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA, 21 – 24 OCTOBER 2015

LIVRE DES RÉSUMÉS Cinquième Conférence Internationale de Démographie des Balkans LA POPULATION DES BALKANS À L’AUBE DU XXIÈME SIÈCLE Éditeur: Institut des Sciences Économiques Skopje, Université "Ss. Cyril et Méthode" à

Skopje, République de Macédoine

Pour l'éditeur: Biljana Angelova, Ph.D.

Rédacteurs: Verica Janeska

Aleksandra Lozanoska Anglais éditeur de langage: Jovanka Jovanchevska-Milenkoska

Français éditeur de langage: Byron Kotzamanis Conception de la couverture: Maja Daskalovska

Préparation de l'ordinateur et l'impression: VIDEKS-Skopje

UDK -CIP Fiche de catalogue de la bibliothèque nationale et universitaire "St.Kliment Ohridski" – Skopje

Tirage:150 ISBN

CIP - Каталогизацијавопубликација Национална и универзитетскабиблиотека “Св. КлиментОхридски”, Скопје 304(497)(063) CONFERENCE internationale de demographie des Balkans (5 ; 2015 ; Ohrid) La population des Balkans a l’aube du XXIemesiecle : livre des resumes / cinquieme conference internationale de demographie des Balkans, 21-24 octobre 2015, Ohrid ; [redacteurs Verica Janeska, Aleksandra Lozanoska] = The population of the Balkans at the dawn of the 21st century : book of abstracts / Fifth international conference of Balkans demography, 21-24 October, 2015, Ohrid ; [editors Verica Janeska, Aleksandra Lozanoska]. - Skopje :Ekonomskiinstitut, 2015. -106 стр. ; 25 см Текстнапореднонафра.иангл. јазик. - Фуснотиконтекстот ISBN 978-608-4519-16-4 1.Гл. ств.насл. 2. Насп. ств. насл. - I. International conference of Balkans demography (5 ; 2015 ; Ohrid) види Conference internationale de demographie des Balkans (5 ; 2015 ; Ohrid) а) Балкан - Демографија - Собири COBISS.MK-ID 99566858

BOOK OF ABSTRACTS Fifth International Conference of Balkans demography THE POPULATION OF THE BALKANS AT THE DAWN OF THE 21ST CENTURY

Publisher: Institute of Economics – Skopje, University”Ss. Cyril and Methodius” in Skopje

Republic of Macedonia For the publisher:

Biljana Angelova Ph.D. Editors:

Verica Janeska Aleksandra Lozanoska

English language editor: Jovanka Jovanchevska-Milenkoska French language editor: Byron Kotzamanis

Cover design: Maja Daskalovska Computer preparation and printing:

VIDEKS-Skopje UDK -CIP Catalogue record from National and University Library

"St.Kliment Ohridski"- Skopje Circulation:150

ISBN CIP - Каталогизацијавопубликација Национална и универзитетскабиблиотека “Св. КлиментОхридски”, Скопје 304(497)(063) CONFERENCE internationale de demographie des Balkans (5 ; 2015 ; Ohrid) La population des Balkans a l’aube du XXIemesiecle : livre des resumes / cinquieme conference internationale de demographie des Balkans, 21-24 octobre 2015, Ohrid ; [redacteurs Verica Janeska, Aleksandra Lozanoska] = The population of the Balkans at the dawn of the 21st century : book of abstracts / Fifth international conference of Balkans demography, 21-24 October, 2015, Ohrid ; [editors Verica Janeska, Aleksandra Lozanoska]. - Skopje :Ekonomskiinstitut, 2015. - 106 стр. ; 25 см Текстнапореднонафра.иангл. јазик. - Фуснотиконтекстот ISBN 978-608-4519-16-4 1.Гл. ств.насл. 2. Насп. ств. насл. - I. International conference of Balkans demography (5 ; 2015 ; Ohrid) види Conference internationale de demographie des Balkans (5 ; 2015 ; Ohrid) а) Балкан - Демографија - Собири COBISS.MK-ID 99566858

COMITE SCIENTIFIQUE membres:

KOTZAMANIS Byron, Professeur - Directeur du Laboratoire d’Analyses démographiques et sociales - Université de Thessalie.ANGELOVA Biljana, Professeur - Directeur de l'Institut des Sciences Économiques Université "Ss Cyrille et Méthode".BUCEVSKA Vesna, Professeur - Faculté des Sciences Économiques, UKIM.JANESKA Verica, Professeur - L'Institut des Sciences Économiques Université "SS Cyrille et Méthode".MADJEVIKJ Mirjanka, Professeur - Département de Démographie, Faculté des Sciences Naturelles et Mathématiques, UKIM.MRDJEN Snjezana, Professeur - Département de Géographie, Université de Zadar.PARANT Alain, Chercheur – INED/Futuribles.PENEV Goran, Chercheur - Centre de Recherche démographique de Beograd.

COMITE D'ORGANISATION membres:

ANGELOVA Biljana, Professeur - Directeur de l'Institut des Sciences Économiques Université "Ss Cyrille et Méthode"EVERAERS Pieter, Eurostat, Directeur, Coopération du système européen Statistique, coopération internationale, ressourcesJANESKA Verica, Professeur - L'Institut des Sciences Économiques Université "Ss Cyrille et Méthode"KOSTADINOVA DASKALOVSKA Katerina, Responsable for Opérationnel risque Management, Komercijalna Banka AD Skopje.KOTZAMANIS Byron, Professeur - Directeur du Laboratoire Analyses démographiques et sociales - Université de Thessalie LOZANOSKA Aleksandra, Professeur Adjoint/Associée de Recherche - L'Institut des Sciences Économiques, Université "Ss Cyrille et Méthode" MRDJEN Snjezana, Professeur – Département de Géographie, Université de Zadar

SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE members:

KOTZAMANIS Byron,Professor - Director of the Demographic & Social Analyses Laboratory -University of ThessalyANGELOVA Biljana,Professor - Director of the Institute of Economics, “Ss. Cyril and Methodius” University in SkopjeBUCEVSKA Vesna,Professor - Faculty of Economics, “Ss. Cyril and Methodius” University in SkopjeJANESKA Verica,Professor - The Institute of Economics, “Ss. Cyril and Methodius” University in SkopjeMADJEVIKJ Mirjanka,Professor - The Institute of Geography, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, “Ss. Cyril and Methodius” University in SkopjeMRDJEN Snjezana,Professor – Department of Geography, University of ZadarPARANT Alain,Researcher – INED/Futuribles PENEV Goran,Researcher - Center of Demographic Research of Beograd

ORGANIZING COMMITTEE members:

ANGELOVA Biljana,Professor - Director of the Institute of Economics, “Ss. Cyril and Methodius” University in SkopjeEVERAERS Pieter,Eurostat, Director, Cooperation in the European Statistical System; international cooperation; resources JANESKA Verica,Professor - The Institute of Economics, “Ss. Cyril and Methodius” University in SkopjeKOSTADINOVA DASKALOVSKA Katerina,Responsible for Operational risk Management, Komercijalna Banka ADSkopje KOTZAMANIS Byron, Professor - Director of the Demographic & Social Analyses Laboratory - University of Thessaly LOZANOSKA Aleksandra, Assistant Professor/Research Associate, “Ss. Cyril and Methodius” University in Skopje MRDJEN Snjezana, Professor - Department of Geography, University of Zadar

C ONFERENCE ORGANISÉ AVEC LE SOUTIEN DE:C ONFERENCE ORGANISED WITH THE SUPPORT OF:

UNIVERSITÉ DE "S S. C YRILLE ET MÉTHODE" DE S KOPJE, R ÉPUBLIQUE DE MACÉDOINE

UNIVERSITY "S S. C YRIL AND METHODIUS ", S KOPJE, R EPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

UNIVERSITE DE T HESALIE, G RECE

UNIVERSITY OF T HESALIE, G REECE

EFTA, EUROPEAN F REE T RADE A SSOCIATION

THE W ORLD B ANK G ROUP

EUROSTAT

I NSTITUT FRANÇAIS DE S KOPJE

AGENCY FOR P ROMOTION AND S UPPORT OF T OURISM IN THE R EPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

MUNICIPALITY OF O HRID, MACEDONIA

KOMERCIJALNA B ANKA, AD, S KOPJE, R EPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

KULI, R EPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

MAKPROGRES, V INICA , R EPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

VITAMINKA P RILEP, R EPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

LABORATOIRE D' ANALYSES D ÉMOGRAPHIQUES ET S OCIALES , L.A.D.S.LDSA, L ABORATORY OF D EMOGRAPHIC AND S OCIAL A NALYSES

TABLE DES MATIÈRES/TABLE OF CONTENTS

AVANT-PROPOS ........................................................................................................14

FOREWORD ................................................................................................................15

PREMIERE SEANCE: LES BALKANS: UN ESPACE DE BASSE FECONDITE ................................................................................................................16

FIRST SESSION: THE BALKANS: A LOW FERTILITY REGION.........................16

FÉCONDITÉ ET ACTIVITÉ DES FEMMES DANS LES PAYS DESBALKANS Khalid Eljim, Alain Parant .....................................................................18

LA FECONDITE EN GRECE DE L’APRES-GUERRE, TENADANCES LOURDES ET RUPTURES Byron Kotzamanis, Pavlos Baltas ...............................20

LOW FERTILITY IN SERBIA: NEW INSIGHTS Mirjana Rašević .......................21

FERTILITY CHANGES IN THE BALKAN COUNTRIES - MAIN FEATURES AND CHALLENGES OF THE BELOW-REPLACEMENT FERTILITY Verica Janeska, Aleksandra Lozanoska................................................23

SOME FEATURES OF THE POPULATION NATURAL GROWTH IN THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA Mirjanka Madjevikj, Biljana Apostolovska Toshevska, Marija Ljakoska .........................................................................................25

THE FACTORS OF FERTILITY DECLINE IN VOJVODINA PROVINCE-CASE STUDY OF SREMSKA MITROVICA Milica Solarević, Branislav Đurđev, Jelena Dunjić...................................................................................................26

THE AGE-SPECIFIC RELATION BETWEEN FERTILITY AND FEMALE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: EVIDENCE FROM SERBIA Natalija Mirić, Mirjana Devedžić..........................................................................................................28

FERTILITY DIFFERENTIALS AND DETERMINANTS OF LOWERING FERTILITY IN THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA Anica Dragović, Amalija Jovanović, Marija Drakulovska Chukalevska .................................................30

DEUXIEME SEANCE: LA SANTE DES POPULATIONS BALKANIQUES ..........33

SECOND SESSION: POPULATION HEALTH IN THE BALKANS........................33

MORTALITY TRENDS AND PROSPECTS OF THE LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH IN MACEDONIA: -THE SPECIFICS AND FUTURE ASSESSMENTS - Goran Miladinov.........................................................................35

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN MORTALITY AND HEALTH STATUS IN THE BALKAN PENINSULA Konstantinos N. Zafeiris, Christos H. Skiadas .........37

INFANT MORTALITY IN THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA Aleksandra Lozanoska, Verica Janeska ..........................................................................................38

LIFE EXPECTANCY IN CROATIA IN TERMS OF ELIMINATING CERTAIN CAUSES OF DEATH Ivan Čipin, Šime Smolić, Petra Međimurec ......40

L’EVOLUTION DE LA MORTALITE DE LA GRECE EN ETAT DE CRISE Stamatina Kaklamani, Georges Kotsifakis ..................................................................42

SUICIDES IN SERBIA DURING AND AFTER THE TIME OF CONFLICTS AND IN THE TRANSITION PERIOD OF THE EARLY 21ST CENTURY Goran Penev, Biljana Stanković ..................................................................................44

RECENT CHANGES IN MORTALITY IN SERBIA Biljana Radivojević,Ivan Marinković...........................................................................................................46

TROISIEME SEANCE: LE BILAN MIGRATOIRE DES BALKANS......................49

THIRD SESSION: MIGRATION IN THE BALKANS..............................................49

CONTINUITY AND CHANGE: DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF FORCED MIGRATION FROM THE FORMER SFRY REPUBLICS IN SERBIA Vesna Lukić ...................................................................51

APPORT DEMOGRAPHIQUE DE L’IMMIGRATION: QUESTIONS DE METHODE Michèle Tribalat ...................................................................................53

INFLUENCE OF WORKERS’ REMITTANCES ON ALLEVIATION OF CURRENT ACCOUNT REVERSALS IN THE WESTERN BALKANS Silvana Mojsovska, Vesna Georgieva Svrtinov...........................................................55

RECENT IMMIGRATION FROM SERBIA TO ITALY: THE BEGINNING OF A NEW TRADITION? Cecilia Reynaud, Vladimir Nikitović, Enrico Tucci ............................................................................................................................56

ASSESSING THE QUALITY OF MIGRATION STATISTICS IN CROATIA Ivan Čipin, Sanja Klempić Bogadi, Petra Međimurec .................................................58

QUATRIEME SEANCE: VIEILLISSEMENT DEMOGRAPHIQUE ET EVOLUTION DES MENAGES ET DE FAMILLES DANS LES BALKANS ........61

FOURTH SESSION: POPULATION AGEING AND FAMILY AND HOUSEHOLDS CHANGES IN THE BALKANS .....................................................61

BALKAN COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD: AGING PROCESS WITHIN THE AGE STRUCTURAL TRANSITION Sara Grubanov-Bošković, Maria Carella ..........................................................................................................................63

LES BALKANS FACE AU DÉFI DU VIEILLISSEMENT DÉMOGRAPHIQUE Khalid Eljim, Alain Parant ....................................................64

DO SENIORS LIVE ALONE IN THE BALKANS? – A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE HOUSEHOLD SITUATION OF ELDERLY PERSONS IN THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA AND THE EUROPEAN UNION Marija Mucić, Snežana Lakčević, Ljiljana Djordjević .............................................................66

AGEING OF BABY BOOM GENERATION IN SERBIA – PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS Jelena Stojilković Gnjatović, Ljiljana Sekulić ................68

IMPACT OF AGING ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE WESTERN BALKANS Anil Onal................................................................................................70

SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES OF HOUSEHOLDS IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF ALEKSANDROVAC IN THE PERIOD FROM 1948 TO 2011 Jelena Dunjić, Milica Solarević, Bojan Đerčan ................................................71

FAMILY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS REGIONS IN ALBANIA: TRENDS AND PATTERNS IN DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR Lantona Sado, Emira Galanxhi .....................................................................................73

LOOKING AHEAD: THE USE OF PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POPULATION AGEING CONSEQUENCES Gordana Vojković, Vera Gligorijević, Ivana Magdalenić ...........................................................75

FAMILLE ET SOLIDARITES DANS LES PAYS DES BALKANS Khalid Eljim, Alain Parant........................................................................................................77

CINQUIEME SEANCE: PEUPLEMENT ET TERRITOIRES DES BALKANS .......79

FIFTH SESSION: POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND TERRITORIES IN THE BALKANS...........................................................................................................79

RECOMPOSITIONS TERRITORIALES DANS L’ALBANIE POSTCOMMUNISTE : LA METROPOLE AU DETRIMENT DES REGIONS? Alain Jarne, Martin Schuler ...................................................................81

RETURN TO THE RURAL IN GREECE DURING THE LAST DECADE: A METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH OF THE POTENTIAL SPATIAL PATTERNS Eugenia Anastasiou, Marie-Noëlle Duquenne......................................83

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION IN ALBANIA AND KOSOVO: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ON URBAN POPULATION AND ITS CLASSIFICATION BASED ON ADMINISTRATIVE AND NON-ADMINISTRATIVE CRITERIA Roberto Bianchini, Ervin Shameti, Idriz Shala..............................................................................................................................86

UNE APPROCHE ALTERNATIVE DE LA MESURE DE L’ATTRACTIVITE, EN PRIVILEGIANT LES INDICATEURS DEMOGRAPHIQUES Marie-Noëlle Duquenne, Stamatina Kaklamani ..................88

LA GRECE : UNE MOSAIQUE DE VIDES ET DE TROP PLEINS DEMOGRAPHIQUES Byron Kotzamanis ..............................................................90

DESERTIFICATION ET DEVITALISATION DE L’ESPACE CROATESnježana Mrdjen Ante Šiljeg .......................................................................................93

SPATIAL ASPECT OF DEPOPULATION IN THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA – TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES Suzana Stanojković, Jasna Milanković, Gordana Bjelobrk.........................................................................................................95

THE MAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT AND THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Radoslav Corović..........................................97

ATELIER STATISTIQUE / STATISTICAL WORKSHOP.......................................99

DEFINITION OF USUAL RESIDENT POPULATION AND ITS PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION IN THE FIELD DATA COLLECTION IN THE 2010 ROUND POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUSES IN SOME OF THE BALKAN COUNTRIES Katerina Kostadinova Daskalovska ................103

RATIONAL OR LEGITIMATE EUROPEANISATION IN THE WESTERN BALKANS? – A CONGRUENCE ANALYSIS OF CENSUS TAKING IN CROATIA, BIH AND FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA Anna Lena Hoh..........................................................................................................105

AVANT-PROPOS À l’initiative de l’Association DEMOBALKet en coopération avec l’ l’Institut d’Économie de Skopje une conférence internationale de démographie se tiendra fin octobre 2015, sur le thème : La population des Balkans à l’aube du XXIème siècle.

Cette conférence ambitionne de mettre aussi à profit la diffusion des résultats des recensements de la vague 2010 pour dresser un bilan de conjoncture démographique des Balkans en ce début de siècle et attirer l’attention sur les tendances lourdes à l’œuvre et leurs effets à moyen et long termes.

La conférence portera, tout d’abord, une attention particulière à l’évolution des phénomènes clés de la dynamique des populations :fécondité, mortalité, mobilité. Une séance, dédiée à la fécondité, se focalisera sur la basse fécondité qui caractérise une large partie del’espace balkanique et sur l’analyse de ses effets sur la croissance des effectifs et la structure par âge. Une deuxième séance sera consacrée à l’analyse de la mortalité et de la morbidité avec pour objectif d’esquisser un bilan de l’état de santé des populations dans les Balkans. La mobilité des personnes, internationale et interne aux pays, analysée sous l’angle des apports et des emprunts démographiques et socioéconomiques pour les pays, constituera l’objet d’une séance spéciale.

La conférence s’intéressera ensuite à l’état des populations des Balkans. Une séance sera alors axée sur l’évolution du vieillissement etders structures des familles et des ménages, tandis que la toute dernièreprivilégiera l’analyse de la distribution spatiale des populations nationales et des principaux groupes ethniques les constituant.

Pendant de la conférence, un atelier sera organisé sur la thématique: La collecte des données sur la population dans les pays des Balkans, l’expérience des recensements réalisés autour de 2010:concepts, collecte de terrain, comparabilité et modalités de mises à disposition des données. Cet atelier réunira, des représentants des offices statistiques produisant des données,des spécialistes œuvrant dans des Organisations internationales ainsi que des scientifiques, utilisateurs de ces données.

FOREWORD

On the initiative of the DemoBalk Associationand in cooperation with the Institute of Economics (IES), an international population conference is held on 21-24th October 2015 on the theme: “The population of the Balkans at the dawn of the 21st century”.

Making use of the recently published 2010 censuses results, this conference aims to assess the demographic situation in the Balkans in the early 21st century and to draw attention to the major trends observed and their potential effects over the medium and long term.

The conference begins by examining key aspects of population dynamics: fertility, mortality, mobility. A first session, devoted to fertility, examines the low fertility affecting a large part of the Balkan region, and will analyze its effects on population growth and age structure. A second session, focuses on analysis of mortality and morbidity, provide a general picture of population’s health in the Balkans. Internal and internationalmobility, viewed from the angle of the demographic and socioeconomic gains and losses for the countries concerned, is discussed in a separated session. The conference will also focuses on the state of the Balkans populations. A session is devoted to changes in the demographic ageing as well as the family and household structures while a last session is analyzing the spatial distribution of national populations and their main constituent ethnic groups.

In parallel within the conference, a workshop is organized on the theme of: Population data collection in the Balkan countries, the experience of the 2010 round censuses: methodological concepts, field data collection, data comparability and data dissemination methods. This workshop is to bring together representatives of statistical offices (producers of demographic and socioeconomic data) and of International Organizations as well as specialists, users of these data.

PREMIERE SEANCE: LES BALKANS: UN ESPACE DE BASSE FECONDITE

FIRST SESSION: THE BALKANS: A LOW FERTILITY REGION

19

Paper

FÉCONDITÉ ET ACTIVITÉ DES FEMMES DANS LES PAYS DES BALKANS

Khalid Eljim*, Alain Parant**

Cette communication vise à apprécier la situation socio-professionnelle des femmes et son évolution en fonction de la fécondité déclarée dans quelques pays des Balkans.

Les données des enquêtes EDS (Enquêtes Démographiques et de Santé) permettent de mener cet exercice. Ces enquêtes couvrent, en effet, différentes thématiques dont : la fécondité, les conditions de vie des ménages, l’éducation, l’activité ; des questions permettent d’apprécier l’évolution du statut socio-professionnel des femmes, leur place dans le ménage et, de manière plus générale, dans la société. Pour les pays pour lesquels ne sont pas réalisées des enquêtes EDS, les données nécessaires seront extraites des recensements, les bulletins interrogeant, entre autres, sur le niveau d’instruction et la situation au regard de l’activité économique (situation au regard de l’activité, secteur d’activité, statut d’occupation). L’interrogation sur le nombre d’enfants mis au monde vivants par les femmes est moins fréquente. Pour les pays où la question est traitée, les réponses permettent de déduire une mesure approchée de la fécondité féminine par exploitation de la question sur la composition des ménages et recours à la méthode dite de « décompte des enfants au foyer » (« own children method »).Ne prenant en considération que les enfants vivant avec leur mère, cette méthode, comparativement à la méthode classique basée sur les données de l’état civil, présente l’inconvénient de sous-estimer les indicateurs de la fécondité. Elle s’avère cependant très pertinente quand on s’intéresse à l’étude des disparités spatiales de la fécondité, à la condition que les entités territoriales considérées soient suffisamment peuplées pour limiter les aléas statistiques (pays, départements, provinces, régions), ou lorsque l’on veut analyser la fécondité en relation avec des variables non documentées dans les bulletins de naissance de l’état civil.

*Université de Bordeaux, Comptrasec, France (khalid.el_jim@yahoo.fr)**Futuribles International, Paris, France (parant@ined.fr)

20

Par rapprochement des estimations de fécondité déduites des questions sur le nombre d’enfants mis au monde et des caractéristiques correspondantes d’instruction et d’activité des femmes, on peut tester une éventuelle corrélation, à une date donnée et pour un pays donné, entre taille de la descendance et insertion sociale.

Sous réserve de pouvoir effectuer les mêmes rapprochements à différentes dates et pour divers pays, on peut tester la robustesse spatio-temporelle des corrélations mises à jour. C’est le cas notamment de la Grèce et de la Roumanie, pays pour lesquels nous disposons de fichiers de micro-données de plusieurs recensements diffusés par la base Integrated Public Use Microdata Series International (IPUMS international. L’utilisation de variables harmonisées, notamment des variables sur l’éducation et sur l’activité permet de mener des comparaisons tout en évitant les biais liés à la collecte de données. Cela est d'autant plus important que les pays étudiés sont hétérogènes sur différents plans : démographique, économique, social, politique, culturel…

Mots clés: fécondité, activité économique des femmes, Balkans

21

Paper

LA FECONDITE EN GRECE DE L’APRES-GUERRE, TENADANCES LOURDES ET RUPTURES

Byron Kotzamanis*, Pavlos Baltas*

La fécondité du moment en Grèce au cours de 65 années qui nous séparent de la fin de la guerre-civile a connu des bouleversements importants. En effet, si la Grèce se situe aujourd’hui (2014) dans le peloton des pays de notre continent ayant une fécondité du moment trèsfaible (la plupart des pays du sud-est européen y font partie), la situation était tout autre au cours des premières décennies de l’après-guerre (1950-1980). L’image change toutefois si on passe de l’analyse transversale a l’analyse longitudinale. On constate alors que dans ce pays qui n’a pas connu de baby-boom, la descendance finale des générations, en baisse progressive (mais en paliers) n’étaitjamais très elevée.

Les valeurs fortes de l’ICF du début de la période et ses variations au cours des 6 dernières décennies sont donc pour beaucoup expliqués par les modifications du calendrier des générations qui traversent ces annéesen âge de reproduction. Mais, en même temps, une analyse plus approfondie (selon le rang de naissance) laisse entrevoir des modifications importantes du comportement reproductif (ainsi que des ruptures), alors que les évolutionsrécentes (la crise socio-économique des années 2009-2014) est porteuse -très probablement-de nouveaux bouleversements.

Dans notre communication on se propose d’examiner l’évolution de la reproduction en Grèce, en essayant de distinguer les tendances lourdes des ruptures, tout en situant ce pays dans son environnement proche.

Keywords: Grèce, fécondité longitudinale et transversale, tendances lourdes et ruptures

* Université de Thessalie, Laboratoire d’Analyses Démographiques et Sociales (Lads), Grèce (demolab@prd.uth.gr)

Paper

LOW FERTILITY IN SERBIA: NEW INSIGHTS Mirjana Rašević*

Objective: The key objective of this paper is to analyse Serbia's 2011 Population Census results related to the fertility, in the interest of more efficient population policy model.

Results: None of the analysed 33 age cohorts of women who were past the reproductive age in 2011 had an average number of live births larger than two children. Even the registered women in the oldest analysed age cohort (generation born in 1930) had given birth to 1.88 children on average. This is clearly the largest registered average number of live births. The age cohorts that were past the reproductive age in 2011 had, on average, between 1.85 children (generation born in 1931) and 1.75 children (generations born in 1937, 1938, 1939, 1940 and 1941), while the most frequently recorded average number of live births was about 1.8. The youngest age cohort of women who were past the reproductive age in 2011 (the generation born in 1962) had 1.82 children on average.

The average number of live births by women who were approaching the end of their reproductive age at the time of the 2011 Census showed a continuous decrease from 1.81 (the generation of 1963) to 1.55 (the generation of 1975). The registered difference of 0.26 children per woman is substantial. Although younger cohorts still have a chance of participating in reproduction, the identified markedly lower average number of live births by women aged between 36 and 40 compared to women aged 41 and over seems to imply that the completed fertiliy in Serbia can be forecast to diverge from the stabilised low value and decline below the 1.8 mark. This is especially in view of the fact that a large number of women in the 20–24 age bracket (82%), more than a half (55%) of women aged 25–29 and about a third (31%) of those aged 30–34 were childless at the time of the 2011 Population Census.

*Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia (rasevicm@gmail.com)

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Conclusion: The results of the 2011 Population Census suggest that the childbearing crisis in Serbia will not only continue, but will probably deepen, as well. The findings on the non-participation of younger age cohorts of women in reproduction indicate to decision-makers that it is vital to make efforts to mitigate the socio-economic barriers to bearing and raising one’s first child during the optimum period.

Keywords: Serbia, 2011 Population Census, fertility

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Paper

FERTILITY CHANGES IN THE BALKAN COUNTRIES - MAIN FEATURES AND CHALLENGES OF THE BELOW-

REPLACEMENT FERTILITYVerica Janeska*, Aleksandra Lozanoska**

The analysis in this paper aims to provide cognition on fertility changes in the Balkan countries in a longer time perspective with particular attention on the period of transition. The paper also offer knowledgeabout the essentialfeatures of the manifested changes and key determinants of fertility decline. Besides that, relevant aspects regardingthe fertilitypolicies in these countries are discussed. The analysis is based onUN and Eurostat statistics, as well as, on the data from the National State Statistical Offices.

The observation of the fertility in Balkan countries over the past 60 years shows that all Balkan countries (except Albania) were faced with below replacement fertility level in the first half of the 1990s. Substantial fertility decline brought the total fertility rate down to very low levels and its significant convergence. Concerning the main features and determinants of the fertility changes, following conclusions derive: There was not significant contribution of the adolescent birth rate to TFR; Decline of the age specific fertility rates among 20-29 year olds and their increase among women older than 30 years; Increase of the share of childlessness among women aged 40-44 years; Postponement of the first births; Fertility decline is underthe influence of the marriage postponement and the divorce increase, despite of rising number of life births outside marriage; Growing significance of the socio-economic determinants of the fertility decrease; etc. Panel regressions results shows that only the regression coefficients for the age groups 20-24 and 25-29, as well as the mean age of women at the birth of first child have statistically significant impact on the TFR for all Balkan countries.

* University Ss. Cyril and Methodius in Skopje, Institute of Economics - Skopje, (verica@ek-inst.ukim.edu.mk) ** University Ss. Cyril and Methodius in Skopje, Institute of Economics - Skopje, (sandra@ek-inst.ukim.edu.mk)

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Fertility transition, accompanied by the intensified emigration abroad, implicates more or less emphasized decrease of the population size, intensified demographic ageing, shrinking labor force that should drive socio-economic development of the Balkan countries. These are serious challenges that need appropriate population policies. Their insights shows that, in most of these countries the "major" concern about population ageing appears earlier than the concern for "too low" fertility. However, the current demographic situation indicatesa delayed fertility policies withrelativelysmalleffects on fertility "raise". In this respect recommendations of intervention are pointed out in: pro-natalist policies, financial incentive, marriages and work-life balance.

Keywords: Balkans, Total fertility rate; Mean age of women at the birth of first birth; Childbearing outside of marriage; Population ageing; Fertility policy

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Poster

SOME FEATURES OF THE POPULATION NATURAL GROWTHIN THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

Mirjanka Madjevikj*, Biljana Apostolovska Toshevska**, Marija Ljakoska***

The vital statistics data analyses indicate major changes in the components of the natural movement of the population. The trend of decreasing number of births and increased mortality of the population led to a reduction in the rate of the population natural growth. The value of 1,9‰, reached in 2013, counted the Republic of Macedonia in the countries with an extremely low birth rate. At the beginning of the XXI century there are obvious differences in the population natural growth in demographic and spatial aspect. Particular attention is given to the differences in the level of the population natural growth among municipalities and regions. These problems come as a result of the impact of the social and economic transformations. The detailed analysis in this paper shows that the trend of declining number of births along with other processes contributes to lower number of births than the number of deaths, in a large part of the municipalities in the Republic of Macedonia, which means that these municipalities are characterized by a negative population natural growth. At the same time, this leaves demographic, social and economic consequences on their development, followed by numerous problems.

Keywords: Republic of Macedonia, population natural growth, negative population natural growth, number of birth, mortality, population

* University Ss. Cyril and Methodius in Skopje, Faculty of natural sciences and mathematics, Institute of geography, (mira.madzevikj@gmail.com) ** University Ss. Cyril and Methodius in Skopje, Faculty of natural sciences and mathematics, Institute of geography, (biljana.apostolovska@gmail.com)*** University Ss. Cyril and Methodius in Skopje, Faculty of natural sciences and mathematics, Institute of geography, (ljakoska.marija@yahoo.com)

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Poster

THE FACTORS OF FERTILITY DECLINE IN VOJVODINA PROVINCE-CASE STUDY OF SREMSKA MITROVICA

Milica Solarević*, Branislav Đurđev**, Jelena Dunjić***

Sremska Mitrovica is one of the regional centers in Vojvodina (population of 37.751, Census 2011) and it provides an acceptable framework for the fertility analysis. The aim of the article is to presentand analyze fertility characteristics in the period 1900-2011 and the factors that affect the reached fertility, using mathematical, statistical, demographic method and the range of statistical sources (registers of births, Census data). Field research was conducted through a questionnaire (sample of 50 respondents according to the women in fertile age group).

In the observed period birth rate has been steadily declining, from 42.32‰ to 8.50‰. The share of women with two children is the greatest (48%) and then comes the women who have not given birth (24%). Their average age is 26.8. The proportion of unmarried women is 14%, the average age is 25 years.

As desired number of children the most of respondents have stated three (46%) or two (36%) child, and, as the optimal number of children led three (62%). The most common motives for not accomplished the desired number of children are bad financial situation and housing conditions. Average number of children is 1.56. The time that elapses from marriage to first child birth is 1.3 years. Average age of childbearing for the first child is 24.1, for the second 26.3 and for the third 27.7.Motives for having more children rated as the most common are love of children, enlargement family, the desire for a child of particular sex, and as a least important are safeness in old age, sense of duty to the state and society.

*University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management (milica.solarevic@dgt.uns.ac.rs)**University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management (djurdjev@uns.ac.rs)***University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management (dunjicjelena1@gmail.com)

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As the main factors of fertility decline weresingled out economic crisis and unemployment (96%), unfavorable housing conditions, lack of adequate financial help from the authorities, later marriage. As the stimulating population policy measures were singled out employment preferences of parents with more children (88%), child allowances (higher for each subsequent child), financial help in the education for large families, flexible working hours for parents with small children.In the new system of values the essence of parenthood has changed, the parents rationally choose one or two children, satisfying their emotional and psychological needs while avoiding a risk. Socio-economic factors with psychological aspirations of birth costs and cultural trends affect changes in reproductive behavior and family size.

Keywords: Vojvodina, fertility, fertility decline, low birth, Sremska Mitrovica

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Poster

THE AGE-SPECIFIC RELATION BETWEEN FERTILITY AND FEMALE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: EVIDENCE FROM SERBIA

Natalija Mirić1*, Mirjana Devedžić**

The aim of this paper is to show the relation between fertility and participation of women in reproductive span in the labor market in Serbia, and to answer the question whether to this end Serbia follows a pattern that is present in Europe. Given that the prime childbearing age is between 20 and 39 years, this paper focuses on examination of differences in the relation between these two components within this age (20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39). Thus, the main objective is to highlight the age-specific relation between these two components.We used two sources of data for this analysis: the Labor Force Survey and Demographic Statistics. Descriptive analysis was performed for the period between 2004 and 2013. The indicators used in this analysis are: total fertility rate, age-specific fertility rate, female labor force participation rate and age-specific female labor force participation rate. The analysis was complemented by using correlation analysis. On the one hand, the main conclusion is that in Serbia, as well as in European countries, there exists a positive correlation between fertility and female labor force participation, but on the other hand, different age groups of women have been characterized by completely different patterns of relationship between fertility and economic activity. Young age groups of women (20-24, 25-29) have been characterized by the “declining pattern” of fertility and economic activity, while older groups of women (30-34) have been characterized by "combined (mixed) pattern“, and the oldest women (35-39) by “growing pattern”. Overall, it can be concluded that these patterns reflect two processes: delay of childbearing and continuation of education. The patterns are largely determined by these two processes.

* University of Belgrade, Faculty of Geography (natalymiric@gmail.com)** University of Belgrade, Faculty of Geography (mdevedzic@gmail.com)

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Acquiring of higher levels of education among young women, on the one hand means their low participation in the labor market, whereas on the other side, "as a rule" it also means delay in childbearing. It is obvious that an increase of frequency of births among women older than 30 years, including the participation in the market, is greater and more stable compared to younger women.

Keywords: Serbia, fertility, female economic activity, age groups of women, correlation.

Poster

FERTILITY DIFFERENTIALS AND DETERMINANTS OF LOWERING FERTILITY IN THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

Anica Dragović*, Amalija Jovanović**, Marija Drakulovska Chukalevska***

Purpose: The main purpose of this paper is to examine differentials of fertility in the country, with regard to demographic and socio-economic factors, and identify the determinants of fertility in the country.

Methods: Empirical part of this article is supported by the secondary data source. The main sources of the data come from the Census data from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia. Additional data source come from the available research and analysis.

Conclusion: Fertility in Macedonia has undergone some important changes. With regard to the retrospective reproductive performance of the country, fertility levels and natural increase of population, among particular population subgroups (by region and ethnicity) are far beyond the level of fertility in the country. The country’s sharp reduction in the level of fertility was followed by structural changes. Those changes consisted of marrying and bearing children at a later age, in the context of the transformation of the socialist regime towards a country with a market economy, which caused both an economic and a social crisis. Observed differences between ethnic communities groups have a basis on various social, economic, and other characteristics. Among groups with higher fertility rates a smaller number of women are employed, the level of education is lower, and the family and household also tend to be more patriarchal in structure. At the same time, norms and values related to fertility which are closer to traditional and collective behavior among the non-Macedonian ethnic communities and which belong to the specific subculture characteristics of the ethnic groups should not be overlooked.

* University Ss. Cyril and Methodius in Skopje, Faculty of Philosophy, (anica.dragovikj@fzf.ukim.edu.mk) ** University Ss. Cyril and Methodius in Skopje, Faculty of Philosophy, (amalija@t-home.mk) *** University Ss. Cyril and Methodius in Skopje, Faculty of Philosophy, (marijad@fzf.ukim.edu.mk)

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Based on the path model where children ever born is dependent variable the indirect effect on the dependent variable is found to be slightly higher for three variables, namely the woman’s ethnicity, the place of residence, and the woman’s education. However, the age of the woman keeps the primary role in determining the children ever born. From all the variables included in the path model, the desired number of children shows the least effect. The other variables show greater importance in the following order: women’s ethnicity, women’s education, place of residence, and current contraceptive use.

In general, expectation are Macedonia in the future do not diverge from the general fertility trend in the country. Based on the values of TFR, and in comparison to other countries Macedonia is in so-called “safety zone”.

Key words: Republic of Macedonia, fertility, determinants of fertility

DEUXIEME SEANCE: LA SANTE DES POPULATIONS BALKANIQUES

SECOND SESSION: POPULATION HEALTH IN THE BALKANS

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Paper

MORTALITY TRENDS AND PROSPECTS OF THE LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH IN MACEDONIA: -THE SPECIFICS

AND FUTURE ASSESSMENTS-Goran Miladinov*

In this paper we describe the prospects of life expectancy at birth in Macedonia in the course of time and in comparison with some other European countries. Also the country specifics of mortality trends and its differences by sex, age and region were explained. We applied a reduced-form model with OLS estimator to investigate the relationship between the crude mortality rates and life expectancy at birth. Using Box and Jenkins procedures and least squared method a univariate ARIMA (1,1,1) model was estimated to be made a future assessments for the Infant mortality rate in Macedonia up to 2020.Vital statistical data from the State Statistical office of the Republic of Macedonia for the crude mortality rates, life expectancy at birth and the infant mortality rate were used for the period 1991-2013. The data shows us that life expectancy at birth in Macedonia rose substantially in the second half of the twentieth century, as it did throughout the whole region of Europe. Over a period of 40 years, a significant progress of life expectancy at birth i.e more than 15 years gain was observed in Macedonia. Mortality in Macedonia has recorded a phenomenal decline during post half of the last century. The Crude Mortality Rate (CMR) of 16.4 per 1000 population observed in 1951 dropped to 7.3 by the close of the last century and is expected to maintain about the similar level in the next decades. The estimation result of the reduced-form model shows that the variable LEAB influences the dependent variable CMR over timeand LR-test results showed that the lag variable of crude mortality rate is a redundant variable and could be excluded from the model. With this form of the lag structure the model results showed that the influence of a change in the lagged explanatoryvariable on 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 declines over time. ARIMA (1,1,1) yields decreasing trend of infant mortality rate for the next years up to 2020. After some periods the computation of the forecasts become recursive.

*Ss. Cyril and Methodius University, Faculty of Economics, Skopje, Ph.D student (miladinovg@netscape.net)

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Then the ARIMA forecasts from this model converged to a constant valuewhere the forecast show the decreasing of 3.78% per year in the log of 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 .

Keywords: Republic of Macedonia, ife expectancy at birth, crude mortality rate, infant mortality rate, reduced-form model, ARIMA (1,1,1 ) model

37

Paper

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN MORTALITY AND HEALTH STATUS IN THE BALKAN PENINSULA

Konstantinos N. Zafeiris*, Christos H. Skiadas**

Based on data from the EUROSTAT database and other sources, recent mortality and health trends in several countries of the Balkan Peninsula were studied. A life table analysis was carried out and life expectancy at birth and modal age at death were calculated. Also, a recently developed indicator was used in order for the death distribution at the older ages to be described and comparatively analyzed amongst the countries studied. The calculation of this indicator is based on the right and left inflexion points of the death density distribution and represents the age distance between these two points. Also, for the evaluation of the health status of the populations studied the first exit time theory was used, which is an application of the methods of stochastic analysis on life table data in order for several health indicators to be calculated, like the Healthy life expectancy (HLEB3) and the Total Health State. Results are indicative of the existence of high variability amongst the Balkan countries, concerning their mortality and Health characteristics.

Keywords: Balkans, Mortality indicators, Health State Indicators, Health Status

*Democritus Univ. of Thrace, Department of History and Ethnology, Laboratory of Anthropology, Greece (kzafiris@he.duth.gr)**Technical University of Crete, Man.Lab, Greece (skiadas@cmsim.net)

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Paper

INFANT MORTALITY IN THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIAAleksandra Lozanoska*, Verica Janeska**

The aim of this paper is to identify the changes and current situation of the infant mortality in the Republic of Macedonia in the light of the global trends and of the changes in the Balkan countries. Besides the infant mortality rate, the analysis is covering the infant deaths by age, by birth order, by education and ethnic affiliation of the mother, as well as by the causes of death. It refers to a longer period of time and is based on available data from UN and Eurostat statistics, as well as, on the datafrom the State Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia.

The analysis show that the Republic of Macedonia, during the whole analyzed period, stands out regarding all indicators. In the last decades, the infant mortality rate is highest compared to all Balkan countries (10.2 per 1,000 live births in 2013) and about three times higher than the EU 28 average (3.7per 1,000 live births). Similar is the situation concerning the neonatal, early neonatal and perinatal mortality rates which in 2013 were: 7.7; 6.0 and 14.4 per 1,000 live births, respectively. The results from the regression model implicates that the low educational level of mothers have a statistically significant impact on the infant mortality rate, while about 94% of this indicator variationsfor the period 1990-2014 can beexplained by the variations in the selected independent variables (age of infants, birth order-first birth and low educational level of the mothers).

In the last two decades, many projects and measures were taken in order to reduce the infant mortality in the Republic of Macedonia. Most of them were conducted in the last few years and their implementation is ongoing. The evaluation of their results should show whether they were properly implemented and what was their effectiveness.

* University Ss. Cyril and Methodius in Skopje, Institute of Economics – Skopje, (sandra@ek-inst.ukim.edu.mk)** University Ss. Cyril and Methodius in Skopje, Institute of Economics – Skopje, (verica@ek-inst.ukim.edu.mk)

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Regardless of this, we consider that additional measures and activities should be taken in the areas of: health promotion efforts; ensure quality of care for all women and infants; develop data systems to understand and inform efforts; promote social equity.

Keywords: Republic of Macedonia, Infant mortality rate, Infant deaths by age group, Causes of infant death, Infant mortality policies, and Health care policies

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PaperLIFE EXPECTANCY IN CROATIA IN TERMS OF

ELIMINATING CERTAIN CAUSES OF DEATHIvan Čipin*, Šime Smolić**, Petra Međimurec***

Recent decades in Croatia are marked by a gradual decline in mortality and a constantly progressing life expectancy. Eurostat data show men have gained 3,3 and women have gained 2,6 years of life expectancy at birth from 2000 until 2013. However, with present decreasing levels of mortality in Croatia, life tables dealing only with all-cause mortality have lost their usefulness as an indicator of population health.

In this paper we present an overview of the trends and patterns in causes of death and explore the effect the eradication of certain diseases would have had on age-specific probabilities of dying. In addition, we investigate which age groups contributed the most to the life extension in Croatia, separately for men and women. The effect of eliminating a certain group of diseases as the cause of death is estimated using a multiple-decrement approach. When exploring the effect on life expectancy which stems from the elimination of one or more causes of death, construction of multiple-decrement life tables is a standard and suitable approach. Simply put, a multiple-decrement life table considers deaths by cause. As a first step, we develop a regular life table in which all deaths combined are taken into account, in the form of an abridged life table for the population of Croatia in 2011. In what follows, we usethe cause-specific deaths to calculate life table components assuming that a particular cause of death is eliminated. The number of deaths for each of these multiple-decrement tables is calculated by excluding deaths due to certain specified causes.

In this paper we investigate main causes of death, beginning with diseases of circulatory system and malignant neoplasms. These two account for approximately three quarters of all causes of death according to official data published by the Croatian Bureau of Statistics. Life table calculations are based on the 2011 estimated mid-year population and death recorded during the period 2010-2012.

* University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, (icipin@efzg.hr) ** University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, (ssmolic@efzg.hr)*** University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, (pmedimurec@efzg.hr)

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Results indicate the impact of the elimination of major diseases on overall life expectancy in Croatia. The gain in life expectancy is shown to be the highest when diseases of circulatory system as the cause of death are eliminated. If diseases of circulatory system as the cause of death are eliminated, the number of additional years at birth that an inhabitant of Croatia would expect to live on average surpasses 14. The second highest influence is that of the elimination of malignant neoplasms as the cause of death. Eradication of other causes of death is shown to have a much smaller impact on life expectancy. As the aforementioned results are suggesting, from birth, an individual in Croatia has a significantly greater chance of dying from diseases of the circulatory system compared to the chance of dying from malignant neoplasms.

The extension of life expectancy at birth can be accomplished by lowering mortality throughout the life cycle. It is of interest to show in which age groups mortality decreased the most, i.e. where the gains in life expectancy are the highest. Analysis of changes in life expectancy, conducted by the application of decomposition techniques, revealed that male life expectancy at birth increased during the last two decades mostly due to the reduction of mortality in the age group 60-69, while the highest contribution to the reduced female mortality is found in the age group 70-79 (followed by the age group 60-69). To draw a comparison, in western European countries the biggest gains in life expectancy at birth for men are realized by reducing mortality in the age group 70-79, and for women in the age group 80+. Such a development can probably be expected in Croatia as well.

As for policy implications, we may argue that the initial results of our analysis seem to indicate the importance of health promotion and interventions regarding the reduction of the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases, which could lead to a morbidity compression, especially in advanced, older ages.

Keywords: Croatia, life expectancy, causes of death

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Paper

L’EVOLUTION DE LA MORTALITE DE LA GRECE EN ETAT DE CRISE Stamatina Kaklamani*, Georges Kotsifakis**

Ce travail porte sur la mortalité surtout pour la période depuis 2001, dont l’étude dans le contexte de la crise s’avère d’une importance considérable. L’étude –effectuée également au niveau régional- concerne l’évolution diachronique de la mortalité par cause, selon le sexe et l’âge et l’impact de principales causes sur son niveau (source des données ELSTAT : mouvement naturel, recensements de population). L’impact de la mortalité pour les principales causes est étudié à partir des Tableaux de Mortalité du Moment avec l'utilisation de l'espérance de vie à la naissance éventuelle en abstraction d’une cause x.

Pendant la dernière décennie le taux de mortalité générale a augmenté (2013 : 10.2‰). La mortalité infantile enregistre une hausse depuis 2008 (2013 : 3.7‰). La hausse de la mortalité cache des divergences selon la cause de décès, sans que le profil général de la mortalité par cause soit influencé. La hiérarchie des décès par cause observée depuis 1981 n’est pas bouleversée. La réduction des décès dus maladies cérébro-vasculaires et ischémies, une hausse considérable des décès des maladies de l’appareil respiratoire et une hausse des tumeurs malignes sont constatées. Les accidents de route sont réduits de 34%. Par contre, les suicides ont augmenté de 43%. Une surmortalité masculine pour la plupart de principales causes de décès existe et les écarts entre hommes et femmes se réduisent, sauf pour les ischémies. La mortalité due aux principales causes ne présente pas de disparités spatiales majeures et diachroniquement elles diminuent.

Pendant la période 2001-2011, on n’observe pas de mutations des taux par âge. Les 35-59 ans sont touchées davantage par les maladies cardiovasculaires et du système respiratoire. Les personnes en 3e et 4e âge voient une certaine aggravation pour l’ensemble des causes qui les concernent.

* Université de Crète, Faculté de Philosophie, Dépt.de Philosophie et d’Etudes Sociales (kakltina@fks.uoc.gr)** Hellenic Statistical Authority /El.Stat (gkotsyfakis@statistics.gr)

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En 2011 l’espérance de vie à la naissance en Grèce est de 76 ans pour les hommes et de 80,8 ans pour les femmes, poursuivant le processus de son rallongement observé depuis trente ans. L’impact sur la durée moyenne de vie en absence de principales maladies du système cardio-vasculaire se réduit diachroniquement, ainsi que l’écart entre les sexes (gain en 2011 : hommes 2.99, femmes 1.97 ans). L’évolution concerne l’ensemble des régions, sauf la Grèce Centrale.

L’impact du cancer sur le niveau de l’espérance de vie diachroniquement se réduit légèrement, mais l’écart entre les sexes augmente (gain en 2011 : hommes 1.92, femmes 0.77 ans). La majorité de régions présente une aggravation de la mortalité, mais les écarts entre les régions se réduisent. En fait, une certaine aggravation de la mortalité est observée et certaines causes de décès présentent une hausse importante, dont l’étiopathogénie peut être liée aux incidences de la crise.

Mots-clés: Grèce, mortalité, morbidité, crise

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Paper

SUICIDES IN SERBIA DURING AND AFTER THE TIME OF CONFLICTS AND IN THE TRANSITION PERIOD OF THE

EARLY 21ST CENTURYGoran Penev*, Biljana Stanković**

The paper explores the dynamics of the number of suicides in the period of 1990-2014 and discovers differences in the direction and intensity of changes in the number of suicides in several subperiods. For Serbia, from a political, social, and economic aspect, that 25-year period encompasses at least three distinct subperiods: the breakdown of former Yugoslavia and conflicts that ensued during the 1990s; change of political regime and the delayed transition in the early 2000s; recession period after the beginning of the global finance crisis. The official statistical data for Serbia (excluding Kosovo) imply that the highest number of suicides was in the first subperiod, especially in the time of the culmination of the crisis connected to the disintegration of former Yugoslavia (1991-1993), while a trend of decrease has been noticeable in the two last subperiods. Positive changes in suicide rate recorded in two other subperiods do not imply that the societal and economic crisis had a negative effect on suicide mortality. The increase in suicides in the first subperiod, the period of the war conflicts, can be connected to a certain extent to the greater availability of firearms, highly lethal suicide means. The paper also looks at the other most frequently used suicide methods as well as the changes in the observed period. The analysis showed that there was a multifold increase in the use of firearms in committed suicides in the period of an increase in the number of suicides during the first years of greatest crisis, especially for young and young adult population.

In this context, the paper determine a change occurred in Serbia's ranking on the European list of countries according to the value of the suicide rate, as well as what types of differences exist in the dynamics of these changes in comparison to other countries. Special attention is paid to the trends in transition countries, including former Yugoslav republics.

*Institute of Social Sciences - Demographic Research Center, Belgrade, Serbia (penev@sezampro.rs)**Institute of Social Sciences - Demographic Research Center, Belgrade, Serbia (s.bilja@orion.rs)

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Trends in Serbia resemble those recorded in some other transition countries, but the increase in the suicide rate in Serbia in the first subperiod and its subsequent decrease was less intensive.

Suicides do not equally affect the old and the young, men and women. Therefore the paper observes suicides in Serbia in relation to most significant characteristics of the deceased, age and sex, aimed to explore not only the differences at the level of suicides but also similarities of the changes in the observed subperiods. This is especially relevant for determining the level differences of male and female suicide rates by age and simultaneity of the highest overall and age-specific suicide rates. The number of suicides for men and women changed in the same direction, but the decrease among women was greater, which increased the pre-existing differences.

Keywords: Serbia,suicide, age pattern of suicide mortality, suicide methods, crisis

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Paper

RECENT CHANGES IN MORTALITY IN SERBIABiljana Radivojević*, Ivan Marinković**

The paper deals with the mortality of population in Serbia since the beginning of the 21st century. The analysis is based on the observed long-term trends, but focuses on the most recent period. The aim of analysis is to draw attention to recent changes in the level and structure of mortality and highlight the most important issues and challenges to further reduce mortality and extend life expectancy.

The crude death rate in Serbia is about 14 per 1000. Compared with the former Yugoslav republics, the death rate is the highest in Serbia. The main reason for high death rate in Serbia is unfavourable age structure, i.e. intensified aging of population in recent decades. In the period from 1950 to 2014, positive results were achieved in reducing mortality by age. The changes were intense in the initial period, followed by a slowdown, and then stagnation in the last decade of the 20th century. In the beginning of the 21st century mortality by age began to go down again. The greatest decrease in the most recent period (2001-2014) recorded in children and youth, moderate in the middle-aged, while it is significantly less in the people over 60 (particularly in those 80 or more). Nevertheless age-specific mortality ratesin Serbia are from 2 up to 3 times higher than those of the most developed European countries.

According to the data from 2012, life expectancy for male in Serbia was 72.2 years, and for female 77.3 years. Compared to the 2002 the increase in life expectancy was relatively small, in men by 2.6 years and in women by 2.3 years. The changes in the mortality of the population over 65 had in terms of percentage a more significant contribution to the increase in length of life. In men, the contribution was over 31% and in women about 50%. Increasing the share of deaths from chronic non-communicable diseases in the overall population mortality, especially cardiovascular diseases and cancers indicates they are the key issues for further improvement of the general mortality conditions in the country.

*University of Belgrade, Faculty of Economics, Belgrade, Serbia (biljana@ekof.bg.ac.rs) **Institute of Social Sciences, Demographic Research Center, Belgrade, Serbia (imarinkovic@orion.rs)

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A growing share of aged population (over 60) and the expressed feminisation of the elderly represent a major challenge for the changes necessary in the functioning of health care. The old and older middle-aged men are identified as the most vulnerable categories of the population.

Keywords: Serbia, mortality, causes of death, natural increase

TROISIEME SEANCE: LE BILAN MIGRATOIRE DES BALKANS

THIRD SESSION: MIGRATION IN THE BALKANS

51

Paper

CONTINUITY AND CHANGE: DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF FORCED MIGRATION FROM THE

FORMER SFRY REPUBLICS IN SERBIAVesna Lukić∗

The scarce academic literature on former refugee population is partly the result of shortage of statistical data after refugee’s obtaining citizenship of the host country. The article explores demographic and socio-economic effects of forced migration in Serbia. It focuses on forced migrants who came to Serbia mainly in the 1990s from the other former SFRY republics. The following domains are addressed: changes in number and origin, sex and age structure, fertility, education and economic activity of forced migrants in Serbia. The use of additionally processed 2011 Census data enabled the extraction of data on forced migrants and its comparison to relevant local/host population data. A comparison has been also made with data on forced migrants from the 2002 Census, where possible. Considering that the 2002 and 2011 Censuses were not conducted on the territory of the AP Kosovo and Metohija, data for the Republic of Serbia are presented without data for the AP Kosovo and Metohija.

Data oncitizenshipindicate a high level oflegal integrationof forced migrantsin Serbia. We argue that, as previous studies show, the inflow of forced migrants from the former SFRY republics during the 1990’s temporarily mitigated the depopulation trend in Serbia, due to the small number of forced migrants in comparison to the total population of Serbia and similarity in the reproductive behaviour and age-sex structure of forced migrants and the host population.

The educational structure of forced migrants is a bit more favourable than that of the local/host population aged over 15. Even with a positive trend between 2002 and 2011, the unemployment rate of forced migrants in 2011 was a little higher than that of the local population, although the economic activity rate of forced migrants is higher.

∗Institute of Social Sciences – Demographic Research Centre, Belgrade, Serbia (lukicbodirogav@gmail.com)

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The difficultiesin adapting of forced migrantsto the labor marketin Serbia are also visible in the structure ofthe unemployed with morepeople whoworked once than those who are seeking for their firstjob. It is worth noting that households with sources of income from social benefits are equally represented in forced migrants than in the local population.

Keywords: Serbia, forced migrants, fertility, employment, education

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Paper

APPORT DEMOGRAPHIQUE DE L’IMMIGRATION: QUESTIONS DE METHODE

Michèle Tribalat*

C’est aux États-Unis et en France qu’ont eu lieu les premières tentatives de mesure de l’apport démographique de l’immigration. La définition en a été beaucoup plus approximative en France qu’aux Etats-Unis jusque dans les années 1990. Que l’on considère l’ensemble des flux migratoires ou seulement l’immigration étrangère, l’apport démographique est la croissance démographique qui aurait manqué sans eux, ou sans elle, sur une période donnée dans un pays donné. Cet apport démographique se décompose en un apport direct formé de personnes nées à l’étranger (des immigrés si l’on étudie l’impact de l’immigration étrangère) et un apport indirect formé de leurs descendants qui n’auraient pas vu le jour sans immigration, descendants qu’il est possible de distinguer par numéro de génération. Cet apport démographique n’est pas composé de personnes réelles que l’on pourrait dénombrer lors d’une enquête mais de leur équivalent numérique. Son estimation se distingue en cela de celle de la population d’origine étrangère qui, elle, est composée de personnes réelles. L’apport démographique peut être calculé rétrospectivement ou prospectivement. Dans le premier cas, la méthode et les hypothèses varient selon les données disponibles, la longueur de la période envisagée et le champ de l’estimation. Plus la période est longue, plus les données risquent d’être lacunaires et la méthode d’estimation rudimentaire. Dans le second cas, l’estimation revient à utiliser les scénarios de projection de population, avec ou sans migrations, ces dernières étant saisies à travers un solde migratoire. C’est une estimation toutes choses égales par ailleurs qui applique la méthode de la population fermée.

* INED, Paris, France (m.tribalat@free.fr)

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C’est aussi cette méthode qui devra être privilégiée, en cas de déclinaison de l’apport démographique à l’échelle d’une région, sauf si la période de référence est relativement courte et les données nécessaires disponibles.

À l’occasion, cet apport démographique peut se révéler négatif, comme cela a été le cas au Québec.

Mots-clés: Immigration étrangère, apport démographique, apport direct, apport indirect

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Paper

INFLUENCE OF WORKERS’ REMITTANCES ON ALLEVIATION OF CURRENT ACCOUNT REVERSALS IN THE

WESTERN BALKANSSilvana Mojsovska*, Vesna Georgieva Svrtinov**

This paper aims to explore the dynamics of remittances in the countries of the Western Balkans (Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo and Albania) and their influence on balances of payment. It provides an analysis on the magnitude of remittances, their volatility, their relationship to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows and arguments whether remittances can help to alleviate the current account reversals. The analysis has been based on available data from World Bank database. Comparative analysis of the countries is provided, in purpose of distinguishing common features and differences in the region with regards to the importance of the remittance inflows. The main outcome of the paper indicates that that remittances serve as an important tool for reducing the current account reversals in all Western Balkans due to their volume and greater stability compared to other private capital flows. However, remittances are mostly related to consumption, whichserves as an area of potential action for policy-makers to enhance the effects from remittances through investment.

Keywords: Western Balkans, Remittances, Current Account Reversals, Balance of Payments

* University Ss. Cyril and Methodius in Skopje, Institute of Economics – Skopje, (s.mojsovska@ek-inst.ukim.edu.mk)** University Ss. Cyril and Methodius in Skopje, Institute of Economics – Skopje, (vesna@ek-inst.ukim.edu.mk)

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Paper

RECENT IMMIGRATION FROM SERBIA TO ITALY: THE BEGINNING OF A NEW TRADITION?

Cecilia Reynaud*, Vladimir Nikitović**, Enrico Tucci***

Since the mid-1960s, Serbian citizens residing abroad were typically guest workers in Germany, Austria, Switzerland and France. At the beginning of 21st century, Italy joined this group almost unexpectedly, becoming the fourth most popular migrant destination for Serbian citizens.

It is usually a very good idea to compare sources from both sides –immigrant and emigrant - in order to get as reliable a picture as possible on the size and, most important, the structure of citizens residing outside the country.

By interpreting the results from methodologically different sources of migration data (Serbian and Italian census, Italian population register and immigration flow statistics), we want to provide a deeper insight into the phenomenon of Serbian immigrants in Italy trying to realize if (and how much) this new group of immigrants differs from the traditional ones originating from Serbia and also how specific it is comparing to other new immigrant groups in Italy.

It seems reasonable to expect that Italy will remain a very important destination in the next decades. Serbian nationals immigrating to Italy generally lag behind their compatriots leaving for other new destinations (USA, Canada, United Kingdom) in terms of education level, being closer to those residing in traditional countries of Serbian immigrants (Austria, Germany, France). The increasing percentage of female immigrants from Serbia to Italy points to one of the most important Italian pull factors – the population ageing, and the need for domestic female workers while the economic crisis reduces the demand for jobs in several sectors where males are mainly employed (e.g. construction sector) and increases the labour market competition with native workers.

* University "Roma Tre", Rome, Italy (cecilia.reynaud@uniroma3.it)** Institute of Social Sciences – Demographic Research Center, Belgrade, Serbia (v.nikson@gmail.com)*** ISTAT, Rome, Italy (tucci@istat.it)

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Considering the geographical proximity (the majority of Serbian citizens are concentrated in the Northeast of Italy), Italy and Serbia will probably strengthen their connection and will experience the increase of new typologies of migration, such as circular migration.

Keywords: Serbia, Italy, immigration, emigration

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Paper

ASSESSING THE QUALITY OF MIGRATION STATISTICS IN CROATIA

Ivan Čipin*, Sanja Klempić Bogadi**, Petra Međimurec***

The level of mobility in a country may be observed through international and internal migration. Measurement of both is important as: a) international migration is becoming an increasingly important component of population change relative to other demographic phenomena (mortality and fertility), and b) internal movements may have an influence on the size and the composition of population residing in local areas. However, producing reliable and comparable migration data can be very challenging. Registration of deaths and births is generally required by the law while the same does not apply to migration. Another issue is a feature of population movement: unlike mortality and fertility, migration flows are susceptible to large and rapid fluctuations. Notwithstanding the foregoing, accurate migration data covering flows of people within and into a country are of great importance when it comes to population projections and policy development.

The focus of this paper is aimed at migration statistics quality in Croatia.The preferable system of collecting migration related data is the population register. In the absence of a population register, as is the case in Croatia, migration events need to be counted in alternate ways. Croatian Bureau of Statistics publishes annual publications providing data on migration flows, whereas data on migration stock may be retrieved from population censuses.

Different data collections, however, report substantial differences in counts of migration events. This paper analyses the discrepancies found between the two data sources. It is shown that official migration data are inadequate to draw conclusions about population movement. Possible improvements regarding migration data collection and harmonization are discussed in the final part of this paper.

* University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Croatia (icipin@efzg.hr) ** Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies, Zagreb, Croatia (sanja.klempic@imin.hr) *** University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Croatia (pmedimurec@efzg.hr)

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Assessing the quality of migration statistics is difficult when directly comparable datasets do not exist. In this case, we have at our disposal data from the 2011 Census and yearly data on migration flows in Croatia. These two datasets in combination may be used for the purpose of our analysis. Although we do not employ a perfect method of validation, given the differing time periods covered by the two datasets (1st of April 2010 to 1st of April 2011 for the population census and 1st of January to 31st of December if the respective year for the migration flow data), available data can smoothly be adjusted and compared.

Preliminary results indicate migration data inconsistencies, such as the over/undercount of migration events for some age groups. It is very interesting to notice that the two datasets used in our analysis do not have similar migration flow numbers. The correlation coefficient describing the relationship between the two datasets is satisfactorily high when it comes to data covering internal movement of people, but surprisingly low when it comes to data referring to counts of in-migrants from abroad.

Initial findings of our analysis demonstrate that migration statistics collected under the supervision of Ministry of Interior Affairs does not fully match the data obtained through the 2011 Census. However, we should bear in mind that datasets used in this paper cover slightly different populations, for example migrants who die and infant migrants are included in the yearly flow data but are excluded from the population census. On the other hand, when using census data, migration is recorded as a single transition event in a respective yearly period. But this does not justify relatively large differences in migration numbers found between the two migration data sources being compared.

We hope to shed light on the way migration data is compiled and highlight the challenges and limitations demographers and other social scientists face when conducting research on this important topic in Croatia. Producers of the official migration statistics should supplement the data being published with explanatory notes on and estimates of over/undercounts of yearly migration flow data.

Keywords: Croatia, migration statistics, quality validation

QUATRIEME SEANCE: VIEILLISSEMENT DEMOGRAPHIQUE ET EVOLUTION DES MENAGES ET

DE FAMILLES DANS LES BALKANS

FOURTH SESSION: POPULATION AGEING AND FAMILY AND HOUSEHOLDSCHANGES IN THE BALKANS

63

Paper

BALKAN COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD: AGING PROCESSWITHIN THE AGE STRUCTURAL TRANSITION

Sara Grubanov-Bošković*, Maria Carella**

With this communication we intend to approach the phenomenon of population aging within the conceptual framework of structural transition. In this exercise we put forward one way of defining the variety of evolutionary trajectories – that are the result of different sets of fertility-mortality interactions – on the global level and hence identify the position of each Balkan country within the demographic World order of the past 4 decades (1971-2015). We then propose a specific index –structural dissimilarity index – to measure the corresponding transformations inherent to the population age structure and link the results with the prospects that emerged on the basis of the interaction between fertility and mortality. This has finally enabled us to formulate some broad assumptions regarding the current and future intensity and trends of structural transformations.

For this purpose, we have generated a sample of 142 national populations which comprises all Balkan countries, with the exception of Montenegro, and employed different techniques such asPartial Order Structuple (Scalogram) Analysis with Coordinates – POSAC and the cohort-component population projections for different timeframes 1971-2015 and 2015-2060.

Keywords: Balkans, World, age structure transformation, fertility, mortality

*University of Bari “Aldo Moro”, Bari, Italy (saragrubanov@gmail.com) **University of Bari “Aldo Moro”, Bari, Italy (maria.carella1@uniba.it)

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Paper

LES BALKANS FACE AU DÉFI DU VIEILLISSEMENT DÉMOGRAPHIQUE

Khalid Eljim*, Alain Parant**

Au milieu des années 1990, une étude commanditée par la Commission européenne et réalisée par l’Observatoire démographique européen (ODE) a isolé, dans la variation totale susceptible d’affecter au cours de la période envisagée (1995-2045) certains paramètres des systèmes de santé et de retraite, la part incombant au seul vieillissement démographique (Le vieillissement démographique dans l’Union européenne à l’horizon 2050. Une étude d’impact). En d’autres termes, la part de la variation qui serait observée si le seul changement à se produire concernait la structure par sexe et par âge de la population de chacun des 15 États que comptait alors l’UE (Union européenne). Cette etude a montré que, du seul fait de l’altération prévisible de leurs structures par âge à l’horizon 2045, les pays européens allaient être contraints à des révisions profondes et douloureuses de leurs systèmes de protection sociale.

Fondés sur une autre logique, mêlant effets démographiques et effets macroéconomiques, plusieurs travaux de réflexion à long terme conduits par la suite – par l’OCDE et, plus particulièrement, pour la France, par le Conseil d’orientation des retraites (COR) – ont débouché sur des conclusions confortant amplement celles de l’étude de l’ODE.

Pour prendre en considération les différentes évolutions (en termes, notamment, d’agencement des générations le long des pyramides des âges et de perspectives) qui ont marqué la quinzaine d’années écoulées depuis la mi-décennie 1990, l’étude de l’ODE a été récemment actualisée pour la France et cinq autres pays européens, dans le cadre d’un appel à projet piloté par Futuribles (La solidarité à l’épreuve du vieillissement démographique). Loin d’altérer les conclusions originelles, l’actualisation a confirmé les principaux résultats. Si dans les pays étudiés, les systèmes de la protection sociale sont parvenus à maturité, dans d’autres pays, notamment ceux des Balkans, ces systèmes sont encore embryonnaires, alors que de lourdes échéances se profilent en relation avec un vieillissement démographique accru.

*Université de Bordeaux, Comptrasec, France (khalid.el_jim@yahoo.fr)**Futuribles International, Paris, France (parant@ined.fr)

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Cette recherché consiste en une étude d’impact du vieillissement démographique de plusieurs pays des Balkans. La mise en œuvre des simulations impose de disposer pour chaque pays étudié : de profils par âge des dépenses de santé, de séries de taux d’activité et de retraite selon l’âge, de projections contrastées de population à l’horizon choisi (2060) ; en l’occurrence, les variantes haute et basse des projections de la DPNU.

Les autres données nécessaires (profils par âge des dépenses de santé, taux d’activité et de retraite) ne sont pas forcément disponibles pour les pays sur lesquels porteront les simulations. Des artifices seront donc requis : adoption du profil des dépenses de santé d’un des pays objet de la récente étude Futuribles et des populations en âge de travailler et en âge d’être retraitée déduites des projections de la DPNU. L’objectif étant, ici, d’apprécier l’impact du vieillissement démographique futur par rapport à une situation initiale prise pour référence, un tel recours ne sera pas préjudiciable et permettra de donner des ordres de grandeur des effets propres du vieillissement futur des pays considérés.

Mots clés: vieillissement démographique, effets propres, Balkans

66

Paper

DO SENIORS LIVE ALONE IN THE BALKANS? – ACOMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE HOUSEHOLD SITUATION OF ELDERLY PERSONS IN THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA AND THE

EUROPEAN UNIONMarija Mucić*, Snežana Lakčević**, Ljiljana Djordjević***

The analysis of this paper focuses on the number and age-sex structure of elderly one-person households as well as their territorial distribution at national and regional level across the European Union (EU) and the Republic of Serbia. General comparative analyses are made between the Balkan countries that are already members of the European Union (Bulgaria, Greece, Croatia and Romania), other European Union countries and Serbia which in this study stands out as a Balkan country that is still not a member of the European Union. Our main aim is to identify whether there is a difference between the Balkans and other countries of the European Union and to assess the position of Serbia as well as identify regions with the highest shares of seniors (persons aged 65 years and over) who live alone.

The focus is placed on a closer examination of recent situation, based on the data from the last census round (2010). Comparing the Balkan countries with other countries of the European Union, we find that the number of one-person households is lower in the Balkans same as the percentage of seniors who live alone. On the other side, share of seniors who live alone in total number of one-person households is higher in the Balkans and Serbia than in other parts of the European Union. Due to a higher life expectancy of women, in all the countries that are analyzed in this study there are higher percentages of women as part of the total number of persons aged 65 and over who live alone. In the European Union, as well as in Serbia there is no region with higher percentage of men as part of one-person elderly households.

*Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, (marija.mucic@stat.gov.rs) **Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, (snezana.lakcevic@stat.gov.rs)***Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, (ljiljana.djordjevic@stat.gov.rs)

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According to the last census round, in the European Union there are already about 10 million persons aged between 55 and 64 years who live alone, which suggests that in the near future the number of seniors that are living alone will certainly increase.

Keywords: Balkans, Serbia, European Union, seniors, one-person household

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Paper

AGEING OF BABY BOOM GENERATION IN SERBIA – PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS

Jelena Stojilković Gnjatović*, Ljiljana Sekulić**

The aim of this paper is to give contribution to the field of research of population ageing in Serbia (without data for Kosovo and Metohija), focusing on baby boom generation. The formation of baby boom generation started after World War II, when number of live births increased significantly. Paper addresses issues related to defining the start and the end of so-called “compensation” period. Delimitation of baby boom generation is defined on the basis of demographic indicators such as rate of fertility and total fertility rate, but also uses age structure from Censuses as additional source. Since fertility was so high in the decade after war was finished, the baby boom generation is quite numerous. Population ageing is (predictable) consequence of low fertility, and as such, it has been widely studied. Still, the need to point to the age structure has risen recently since baby boomers are getting closer to the old age. The paper analyses the share of baby boom generation in Serbia in last seven Censuses (from 1953 to 2011), showing their relative importance in overall population composition. The emphasis is on data from 2011 Census, because it will be the last one when Serbian baby boomers were not part of old population (65+). One of the biggest concerns followed by ageing of baby boomers is inadequate replacement of younger generations in terms not only of age distribution but also in economic context. Even though the future trends of population development are unknown, population projection gives us good sense of what is to come. Population ageing will persist in Serbia in the future and one of the drivers of its course is ageing of baby boom generation because of demographic momentum. Knowing demographic features of baby boom generation is thus important and relevant for political responses. The challenges created by this process are not negligible, because this will reflect to different societal aspects.

* University of Belgrade, Faculty of Geography, Belgrade (stojilkovic.gnjatovic@gmail.com)** Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade (ljiljana.sekulic@stat.gov.rs)

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The most feared one is connected to pension system and (in)ability of its functioning. Still, baby boomers changed some of predefined social consensuses since divorces, economic activity of women and education were not widespread before this generation. It is open question whether they will change “old age” as we know it.

Keywords: Serbia, population ageing, baby boom generation, population projection, demographic structures

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Paper

IMPACT OF AGING ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE WESTERN BALKANS

Anil Onal∗

A period of demographic dividend is ending for the six countries of South East Europe (SEE6) while not only low fertility rates but also emigration and lower life expectancies, relative to the ones in advanced Europe, are reducing working-age populations. This demographic transformation brings forward challenges as well as opportunities. On the one hand, an aging population may reduce per capita income growth through employment and productivity effects. On the other hand, increasing capital-worker ratios and opportunities to increase the quality of human capital may counterbalance or exceed the adverse effects. Carefully designed policies that facilitate behavioral responses in the society and builds human capital while increasing labor market participation would help to seize the opportunities and meet the challenges of an aging population.

Keywords: Western Balkans, population ageing, economic growth, fertility rate, emigration

∗Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management Global Practice, World Bank (aonal@worldbank.org)

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Poster

SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES OF HOUSEHOLDS IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF ALEKSANDROVAC IN THE PERIOD

FROM 1948 TO 2011Jelena Dunjić*, Milica Solarević**, Bojan Đerčan***

Municipality of Aleksandrovac is located in central Serbia. As most municipalities in Serbia and in this part of Southeast Europe, Aleksandrovac shows a constant decrease of the population, and the tendencies of aging population as well as the decrease of universality andpopularity of marriage, postponement of childbearing, family transformation, change in its functions, which have influenced the change in the shape and structure of households - decrease in the number of household members at the first place. Due to country-town migrations, country population decreased, household member number decreased as well, and the new lifestyle brought to complete change of household structure as people knew it.

The aim of this paper is the analysis of households in the municipality ofAleksandrovac and their socio-demographic changes in the period from 1948 to 2011, based on census data of the Republic of Serbia. The methods which were used in writing this paper were analysis and interpretation of domestic and foreign literature, survey research, analytic-synthetic and mathematical-statistical methods.

In the regarding period the population increased only at the beginning of it (form 1948 until 1953). After that period, population continuously falls. The interesting thing is that even though the number of inhabitants falls, the number of households raises continuously until 2002. From 2002 the number of households begins to fall as well. The number of household members constantly falls from the beginning of the regarding period. At the beginning of the regarding period, the average number of household members was above six. With the the decomposition of large households increased the number of households with fewer members.

*University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Science, Department for Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Novi Sad (dunjicjelena1@gmail.com) **University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Science, Department for Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Novi Sad (milica.solarevic@dgt.uns.ac.rs) ***University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Science, Department for Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Novi Sad, (bojan.djercan@dgt.uns.ac.rs)

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At the same time population decreased too, as a consequence of continuous movement of people towards bigger cities and abroad.

Questionnaire survey gives a closer view into the reasons why are people living in a larger households, as well as the insight into their opinions about the quality of life in Municipality of Aleksandrovac. This research also provides concrete answers and the reasons why are people leaving the settlements of municipality of Aleksandrovac, which causes fragmentation and changes the character of households, and the results contribute to the possibilities of monitoring and forecasting of such trends.

Keywords: Serbia, Municipality of Aleksandrovac, household structure, aging, population

73

Poster

FAMILY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS REGIONS IN ALBANIA: TRENDS AND PATTERNS IN DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL

BEHAVIOURLantona Sado*, Emira Galanxhi**

Family is a dynamic institution in Albania, a country that is experiencing signs of a cautious entry in the “second demographic transition” as observed and reported by the recent national research that made use of data from the Albanian population and housing censuses. Geographical variations patterns are identified in several domains of development during the last twenty years of transition. The purpose of this analysis is to discuss at what extent the family/household demographic and social behaviour have changed from 1989 to 2011, focusing on the fluctuations across the Albanian regions.

Taking as a starting point the 1989 Census data, followed by the 2001 Census and ending with the 2011 Census situation, some main features are observed in the 12 administrative counties (prefectures) of Albania. The changes are interpreted under the broad concept of “second demographic transition” with a focus on: family/household type and size; the number of children (still alive) combined with family/household formation; changes in marriage and divorce; the presence of young children and of parent’s employment status as predictors for family functioning.

From the analysis it results that family dynamics during the last two decades of economic and social turmoil in Albania, are displayed also with geographical variations according to the results of population and housing censuses, of 1989, 2001 and 2011. The family type “norm” that emerges clearly in all counties, from 1989 to 2011, is the household with one family nuclei.Family formation behaviours are re-shaped in years bringing childlessness and a shrinkage in household size, in all Albanian localities. However, in majority, children are raised in traditional-married families.

*Sapienza University of Rome, Ph.D. Student, Rome, Italy (lantona.sado@gmail.com) **National Institute of Statistics, Tirana, Albania (egalanxhi@instat.gov.al)

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Nowdays, very tinny differences exists among regions, with the counties in North of the country being a bit behind in this changing process. Interestingly, the long term demographic changes have almost equally extended to all the geographical localities, despite cultural barriers, putting almost all regions progressively in line with European standards. However, the higher presence of young children and lower parent’s employment status in counties in North of Albania, places significant pressures on families in terms of functioning, compared to the other parts of the country. Whereas, the Center of Albania (the counties of Tirana and Durrës), which has experienced the highest internal migration flows, displays over the years a very interesting family transformation that deserves further detailed investigation. The above information is expected to influence social policy desing, and in particular to reshape the local planning.

Keywords: Albania, family development, regions, family formation, family functioning

75

Poster

LOOKING AHEAD: THE USE OF PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POPULATION AGEING

CONSEQUENCESGordana Vojković*, Vera Gligorijević**, Ivana Magdalenić***

By using prospective analysis, the article researches dimensions of the population ageing and implications on the demographic and socio-economic development. The question raised is related to the way the demographic changes until 2030 will modify the social landscape or labour market, human capital and living conditions. Research was performed on the example of the Sumadija and Pomoravlje region in Serbia, with idea to secure providing detailed and firmly grounded analyses of population ageing and its implications. Projections of the labour market, human capital and social needs of the population by 2030 are given based on the medium option for projection of the totalpopulation. All variants of population projections show significant increase in the participation of the elderly (65+ years) in the total population. According to the medium variant, their share was increased from 18.5 percent in 2011 to 25.7 percent in 2030. In the last two decades, the share of young people and the elderly in the total population are replaced, and according toprojections by 2030 it is expected the number of old to be doubled.

Related to future challenges on the labour market, results have proven that aging of the population and the long-term decrease of fertility will affect decrease of the working population. Reduction of the working population will influence the lack of labour force that will lead to increase of the dependence on old ratio. Employment increase at the female population will be more intensive than the increase in employment between men, which is the result of strengthening of the service economy in the region of Sumadija and Pomoravlje.

*University of Belgrade, Faculty of Geography, Serbia (gvojkovic@gmail.com) **University of Belgrade, Faculty of Geography, Serbia (vera.gligorijevic@gmail.com) *** University of Belgrade, Faculty of Geography, Serbia (in.magdalenic@gmail.com)

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Contingent of older workers (55-64 years) will be increased from 42.8 to 48% in 2030 with intermediate-section in 2020 of 44.6%. There will be intense increase of female population of the same age: from 19.4% to 25.7% in 2020 and 34% higher in 2030. In the field of human capital, demographic changes will cause reduction of the number of pupils and students included in the primary and secondary education, and increase of number of students of university institutions. It is estimated that the school obliged contingent by 2030 will be reduce for more than 5,000 students. Unfavorable demographic effects will be more intensive in the period up to 2020 (the number of children will rapidly decrease, to about 4,000), while in the next decade will slowly decrease as a result of the projected recovery fertility An improvement of the educational composition of the population and a shortage of adequate number of workers in specific occupations is expected.

Also, demographic changes are multi-reflected in all areas of social protection of the population. The share of very old people (aged 80 years) in the total population is increased (from 4.0 to 6.4%) and needs for increased contingent of old people become more complex. Regarding social protection in the future it can be expected that, due to demographic changes, the number of potential users will be increased, especially in the category of people who live in single-elderly households. In addition, economic migration resulted in the aging of families, especially in rural areas of the region. Elderly person’s households became more vulnerable group, requiring more attention in the design of programs to support the family and respect the significant differences of an economic nature, but also cultural, ethnic and other specifics.

Keywords: Serbia, population ageing, population projections, labour market

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Poster

FAMILLE ET SOLIDARITES DANS LES PAYS DES BALKANSKhalid Eljim*, Alain Parant**

Dans les pays des Balkans, les systèmes de protection sociale sont souvent embryonnaires et les solidarités organiques (articulées sur quelques principes communs et garanties par la puissance publique ou le marché) ne peuvent encore pleinement se substituer aux solidarités familiales. Ces pays n’en connaissent pas moins de profondes mutations, démographiques autant qu’économiques. La question se pose de savoir si celles-ci peuvent exercer sur les solidarités naturelles des effets analogues à ceux qu’elles ont produits dans les pays les plus développés.

Apprécier le degré de résistance — ou d’altération — des solidarités familiales largo sensu n’est pas chose aisée. On peut en tenter une mesure approchée en s’appuyant sur des données de recensements et en comparant l’évolution dans le temps et au cours du cycle de vie de l’entourage familial immédiat (vivant sous le même toit) des individus. La focale est mise plus particulièrement sur les populations âgées de quatre pays des Balkans : Croatie, République de Macédoine (ARYM), Grèce, Roumanie.

Les données utilisées proviennent des derniers recensements de la population et des logements qui ont eu lieu : en 2011, en Croatie, en Grèce et en Roumanie ; en 2002, en République de Macédoine. Pour la Grèce et la Roumanie, en complément des données tirées de « Census Hub », qui diffuse les données des recensements de l’ensemble des pays de l’Union européenne, d’autres données de recensement ont été exploitées, diffusées par la base Integrated Public Use Microdata Series International (IPUMS international).

L’analyse de la structure des ménages comptant au moins une personne âgée révèle un resserrement du cercle présentiel et une montée de la solitude résidentielle avec l’âge dans l’ensemble des pays étudiés. C’est pour les femmes, notamment les plus âgées, que le cercle présentiel apparait le plus étroit.

* Université de Bordeaux, Comptrasec, France (khalid.el_jim@yahoo.fr)** Futuribles International, Paris, France (parant@ined.fr)

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Dans le groupe d’âges 75-79 ans, une femme sur trois vit seule ; au-delà de 80 ans, cette proportion atteint 40 %.

Pour les femmes les plus âgées, les descendants et les autres apparentés constituent la principale présence au quotidien.

Dans la très grande majorité des cas, et jusque dans les âges les plus élevés, lorsqu’ils ne vivent pas seuls, les hommes résident avec leur épouse ou compagne

Mots-clés: Balkans, familles, solidarités

CINQUIEME SEANCE:PEUPLEMENT ET TERRITOIRES DES BALKANS

FIFTH SESSION: POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND TERRITORIES IN THE BALKANS

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Paper

RECOMPOSITIONS TERRITORIALES DANS L’ALBANIE POSTCOMMUNISTE: LA METROPOLE AU DETRIMENT DES

REGIONS?Alain Jarne*, Martin Schuler**

La profonde mutation de l’espace albanais suite à l’ouverture en 1991 se traduit par le développement soutenu de l’aire métropolitaine Tirana-Durrës et la perte de vitalité de la quasi-totalité du reste du territoire albanais. Le caractère sans doute unique dans le contexte balkanique des dynamiques récentes du peuplement en Albanie plonge ses racines dans ses singularités en termes démographiques, mais aussi dans la politique de développement territorial appliquée durant un demi-siècle par le pouvoir communiste. Ainsi, avec une natalité très élevée, une mortalité faible, un gel des migrations internationales et un strict contrôle des migrations intérieures et de l’urbanisation, l’Albanie se présente-t-elle en fin de 20e siècle avec une population presque triplée depuis la guerre, mais toujours rurale dans sa majorité. De là, le premier recensement réalisé dans l’Albanie postcommuniste en 2001 permet de comprendre les mutations dramatiques consécutives à l’ouverture du pays : rupture brutale entraînant un exode massif vers les villes (Tirana en particulier) et vers l’étranger (la Grèce et l’Italie), ainsi qu’une baisse tardive mais significative de la natalité. Le second recensement (2011) met lui en évidence celles des tendances qui s’inscrivent dans la durée et autorise ainsi un discours sur les perspectives à plus long terme : métropolisation de l’aire Tirana-Durrës, relative perte de substance du reste du tissu urbain, large déprise rurale. Cette différentiation profonde du territoire national est enjeu majeur auquel l’Albanie s’efforce de répondre, comme en témoigne l’adoption récente par le Parlement d’une réforme territoriale importante. Cette contribution propose, après la mise en exergue de ses spécificités, un décryptage des évolutions et basculements dans l’organisation et les dynamiques de l’espace albanais, en particulier dans les dernières années.

* Ecole polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne (alain.jarne@bluewin.ch)** Ecole polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne (martin.schuler@epfl.ch)

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En comparaison avec les autres pays des Balkans, l’Albanie a une trajectoire originale à tous égards. Sa natalité, de l’ordre de 30‰ dans les années 40, augmente, au contraire des pays voisins, pour culminer à 44‰ dans les années 50 et se maintenir au-dessus de 40‰ jusqu’en 1961, soit 10 à 20 points de plus que ses voisins. Et si elle amorce sa décrue dès ce moment, elle le fait de manière lente et régulière, alors que dans les Balkans, on observe le plus souvent une chute rapide de la natalité durant cette période, en particulier dans celles des régions yougoslaves qui connaissent des taux de base très hauts, comme la Bosnie-Herzégovine et le Monténégro. Si on ajoute à cela la faible mortalité albanaise – bonnes conditions sanitaires et composition par âge favorable – et la quasi-impossibilité d’émigrer, on obtient des taux de croissance de la population exceptionnels, supérieurs à 2% annuels, sur toute la période communiste, dépassant même les 3% entre les recensements de 1955 et 1960 (et ce sans apport migratoire) ! Entre 1950 et 1990, les républiques ex-yougoslaves voient leurs populations croître de 25% à 60%, l’Albanie de 180%. Si le bilan naturel explique dans une large mesure ces différences, le gel de l’émigration également, interdisant des rééquilibrages tels que ceux issus des migrations internes à la fédération yougoslaves par exemple à partir des années 70 – des régions pauvres à fortes natalité (Bosnie, Macédoine) vers les plus riches (Croatie, Slovénie). Se constitue donc durant cette période un « stock » de population considérable qui se caractérise également par une répartition bien spécifique sur le territoire albanais.

Mots-clés: Albanie, population, migration, urbanisation, métropole, exode rural, territoire, mutation, ségrégation spatiale

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Paper

RETURN TO THE RURAL IN GREECE DURING THE LAST DECADE: A METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH OF THE

POTENTIAL SPATIAL PATTERNSEugenia Anastasiou*, Marie-Noëlle Duquenne**

Migration is the only demographic phenomenon which directly interacts with time and space. This special feature lies in its inability of formatting a unique and widely accepted definition, as migration varies according to the specific research topic, the reference population and the data availability and reliability. In the modern history of Greece and especially during the postwar period, international migration held a very distinct position, as like the rest of southern European countries, Greece traditionally has been characterized as an “active immigration country”. At the same time, within the country we observed an intense urbanization process and a rural exodus, generating strong spatial population redistribution. During the 90s, Greece gradually turned into “host” country, especially for Balkan citizens. This new situation has largely contributed to the increase of the total population of the country as well as to a relative demographic revitalization of some rural areas. In parallel, the internal migratory flows in Greece continue, however they acquire new forms and directions where the largest cities are not systematically the privileged destination. It seems that Greece is now concerned by counter-urbanization trends. Internal migration has a significant effect on the organization and functioning of space, as it leads to new forms of spatial distribution of the population and contributes to the emergence of new “attractive areas”.

For several decades, counter-urbanization in Europe constituted a key component of internal migration, causing numerous scientific analyses exploring both the intensity of the phenomenon as well as its causes and its effects. The data analysis of the recent population censuses in European countries confirms the continuing trend of migration towards rural areas, with special emphasis on small towns. In Greece, after a long period of population concentration in the main metropolitan areas, the * Université de Thessalie, Laboratoire d’Analyses Démographiques et Sociales (Lads), Grèce (evanastasiou@uth.gr) ** Université de Thessalie, Laboratoire d’Analyses Démographiques et Sociales (Lads), Grèce (mdyken@uth.gr)

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first signs of counter-urbanization occurred after the 1990s. Until now few detailed analyses of this phenomenon have been produced, because the internal migration “umbrella” includes various types and causes of movements, such as migration for study, retirement from active life or social mobility, for which there is a significant lack of data, especially at small spatial scale. Counter-urbanization and the “return” issue in Greece require a detailed and systematic exploratory analysis, since the few existing empirical studies do not produce clear answers. Most of them are based on sample surveys and therefore they only provide indications but and certainly not estimation of potential internal flows to the countryside. Few efforts have been made to measure this phenomenon through the available data of the recent censuses.

The first objective of this paper is to examine in which extent we can detect - through the analysis of the recent Greek census data (2001-2011) – significant internal movements from urban areas to semi-rural and rural zones. Which areas of the country are really affected by this new tendency? Consequently, we examine the potential spatial patterns which identify the geographical mobility of Greek population during the last decade. The methodology adopted in the present study aims at delimiting the rural areas with significant or potential population growth and in some extent can be considered as “new attractiveness areas”. The ultimate goal is to highlight the magnitude of the "return to the countryside" phenomenon, as the internal migratory flows significantly define the spatial dynamics.

The present research is focused on internal migration of Greek population and gives emphasis on returning to rural areas. Therefore, the population under consideration is related to Greeks born in Greece who are residents in the country both in 2001 and 2011. The scale of the analysis refers to the administrative level of Kapodistrian municipal districts, which in relation to the new administrative division (generating an important fusion of the previous municipalities) allows a more pertinent identification of rural areas concerned by the return to countryside. It also ensures a better and more comprehensive cartography of migratory flows to semi-urban and rural areas. In order to calculate the input and output flows, two cross tabulation matrixes were generated that referred to the 1034 local administrative units of the country.

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Finally internal migration crude indicators (inputs and outputs) have been estimated while the implementation of classification methods allowed us to detect clear internal migration patterns as well as some attractive areas in the countryside.

Keywords: Greece, Internal migration, Counter urbanization, Return to the rural

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Paper

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION IN ALBANIA AND KOSOVO: A COMPARATIVEANALYSIS ON URBAN POPULATION AND ITS

CLASSIFICATION BASED ON ADMINISTRATIVE AND NON-ADMINISTRATIVE CRITERIA

Roberto Bianchini*, Ervin Shameti**, Idriz Shala***

Due to national differences in the features and concepts that characterize urban and rural areas, no single and accepted definition is available worldwide for urban and rural population. However, the traditional distinction between urban and rural areas within a country is based on the general acceptance that urban areas provide a different demographic profile of the population and a different way of life and, usually a higher standard of living than is found in rural areas, at least in developing countries and transition economies. Moreover, statistical data for urban and rural areas are of some considerable importance for the central government and for local authorities while planning and managing services for local communities. For instance, the allocation of health and social care funding, housing, roads, water and sewerage and the provision and maintenance of schools have all distinctive aspects in urban and rural areas. Employment for urban and rural population has different features as well.

Recently, in many countries, including the Balkan countries, this distinction has become unclear and the principal difference between urban and rural areas in terms of the circumstances of living tends to be a matter of the degree of concentration of population. Indeed, rapid urbanization processes have greatly raised the need for actual informationrelated to different sizes of urban areas, and to the need to define standards for data comparability.

Like in all countries conducting a population census, in Albania and Kosovo the census data was disseminated following the administrative structure of the countries based on census legislation. In most of the

* Interuniversity Research Center for Sustainable Development/Italian Geographic Society, Rome, Italy (roberto.bianchini@uniroma1.it) ** Institute of Statistics of Albania /INSTAT, Tirana, Albania (eshameti@instat.gov.al)*** Kosovo Agency of Statistics /KAS, Pristina, Kosovo (idriz.shala@rks-gov.net)

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Western Balkan countries, the law classifies the administrative units as urban or rural.

However, like in many other countries, their cities and other urban areas are enlarging their size faster than the capacity of the law to revise such definitions which are needed to make urban boundaries consistent with the actual size of urban and non-urban areas. Therefore, the breakdown of census data by urban areas, both at national and regional level, is underreported. Consequently, census results show significant differences in terms of urban/rural breakdown if different criteria for data classification are applied. Moreover, taking into account that the 2011 censuses have been used to update the sample frame for the conduction of household surveys, also their results are affected by the definitions used for urban and rural population.

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the definition and classification of the urban resident population of Albania and Kosovo as obtained from their 2011 population and housing censuses, according to their administrative criteria and based on a new approach for data classification as well, and to compare the differences at national and regional levels. Selected census variables are also presented by urban/rural modalities using administrative and non-administrative criteria, including the 1 km² grid-based typology recently adopted by the European Union.

The results show that the differences between the two classifications in the share of urban population at national level is very high (about 10% in Albania and about 16% in Kosovo), and that it is even more at regional level. This seems demonstrate that the use of administrative criteria to define and classify urban and rural areas is not suitable for statistical purposes, unless such criteria are better defined and kept up-to-date by National and Local Authorities. The EU grid based approach proposed in this analysis seems one option to be considered by Balkan countries todevelop reliable definitions and classifications on what is urban and what is rural, ensuring international comparability as well.

Keywords: Albania, Kosovo, population and housing census, census data comparability, Geographic Information System, grid data, population distribution, urban/rural classification, urbanization.

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Paper

UNE APPROCHE ALTERNATIVE DE LA MESURE DE L’ATTRACTIVITE, EN PRIVILEGIANT LES INDICATEURS

DEMOGRAPHIQUESMarie-Noëlle Duquenne*, Stamatina Kaklamani**

Dans le présent travail, une approche alternative quoique complémentaire de la mesure de l’attractivité territoriale éventuelle est proposée, en privilégiant les indicateurs démographiques. Nous avons donc procédé à la mise en place d’instruments d’analyse permettant d’évaluer le poids relatif des composantes démographiques (solde naturel, solde migratoire) dans les variations de population, de façon à cerner la capacité de maintien voir d’accroissement de la population résidente.

Après une présentation détaillée de la méthodologie proposée, sa mise en œuvre a été effectuée à partir de l’exemple de l’espace rural grec. Les unités spatiales d’observation retenues sont les quelques 800 municipalités de la Grèce rurale tandis que les données proviennent des deux derniers recensements de population (2001 et 2011) auxquelles il faut ajouter les données relatives à l’évolution du solde naturel.

Dans une première étape de diagnostic les indicateurs démographiques utilisés ont permis d’éclairer le contexte démographique de chaque municipalité. L’Analyse Factorielle menée en choisissant des indicateurs de dynamique couplés par les indicateurs de structure débouche finalement sur 3 indices composites: (1) la dynamique démographique par l'accroissement naturel de la population du fait de la structure par âge qui favorise cet accroissement naturel, (2) la dynamique assurée par une possibilité de renouvellement à court terme de la population en âge d'activité et (3) la dynamique par l'installation de nouvelles populations (Solde migratoire). A partir de ces résultats la classification hiérarchique ascendante a autorisé une typologie des municipalités et la détection au sein de l’espace grec de divers types d’attractivité.

* Université de Thessalie, Laboratoire d’analyses Démographiques et Sociales (Lads), Grèce (mdyken@prd.uth.gr)** Université de Crète, Faculté de Philosophie, Dépt de Philosophie et d’Etudes Sociales (kakltina@uoc.gr)

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Dans une deuxième étape interprétative l’étude se concentre sur les caractéristiques géomorphologiques des municipalités (positionnement géographique, accessibilité et proximités), ainsi que sur leurs caractéristiques socio-économiques, permettant ainsi une deuxième forme de caractérisation des groupes de municipalités et contribuant donc à la compréhension des raisons des disparités infrarégionales en matière d’attractivité.

Mots-clés: Grèce, Attractivité territoriale, croissance démographique, indicateurs démographiques, solde naturel, solde migratoire, Analyse factorielle, Classification hiérarchique

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Paper

LA GRECE: UNE MOSAIQUE DE VIDES ET DE TROP PLEINS DEMOGRAPHIQUES

Byron Kotzamanis*

A la lecture des différentes histoires et évolutions démographiques les cartes de distribution de la population des pays de la péninsule balkanique se différencient aujourd’hui fortement de celles de la première période d’après-guerre. En effet, si la répartition territoriale de la population n’était pas très équilibrée aux débuts des années 50, les déséquilibres initiaux se sont aggravés et ce, de façon accélérée après 1990. Les jeux combinés de la fécondité, des migrations (internes et externes, forcées ou non) et dans une moindre mesure de la mortalité ont remodelé les cartes de peuplement des pays des Balkans lesquels, forment désormais une mosaïque de vides et de trop-pleins démographiques.

Dans cette communication nous nous focaliserons sur un pays, la Grèce. En effet, si les évolutions de ce pays sont lentes comparées à celles de l’Albanie, le dépeuplement progressif de la montagne et l’abandon de la campagne sont allés de pair dans la période d’après-guerre avec une croissance urbaine et une concentration extrême de la population dans les deux aires métropolitaines (et dans une moindre mesure dans les quelques grands centres urbains du pays), laissant autour d’eux des zones vides ou peu peuplées, avec une population de plus en plus vieillie. Il y a désormais en Grèce de vastes espaces en crise, très peu peuplés et présentant un vieillissement accru. Cette évolution, observée au cours de la période d’après-guerre, va-t-elle se poursuivre ? La crise récente va renverser les tendances précédentes ? Voilà les questions qui se posent aujourd’hui et, si on ne peut répondre avec certitude, car il est impossiblede prévoir le futur, on peut toutefois émettre quelques hypothèses:

*Université de Thessalie, Laboratoire d’Analyses Démographiques et Sociales (Lads), Grèce (bkotz@prd.uth.gr)

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En Grèce, le jeu combiné des facteurs démographiques a abouti à des inflexions et des ruptures significatives depuis la fin de la deuxième guerre mondiale. Ainsi, il s’est constitué progressivement un axe sud-ouest/ nord-est (Patras-Athènes-Thessalonique) qui concentre désormais la population et la croissance, alors que les montagnes ainsi que le nord et le centre de la Grèce continentale se sont progressivement vidés à l’exception de quelques pôles ruraux qui, bénéficiant d’une relative proximité à un centre urbain régional et/ou à une zone touristique, parviennent au moins à maintenir leur population. L’évolution du peuplement entre 1951 et 2011 permet de dégager 3 types de régions/évolutions : les deux espaces métropolitains et un nombre limité de grandes agglomérations, les campagnes vivant encore grâce à la vitalité des bourgs ayant entre 2.000-10.0000 habitants mais entourés de plus en plus de communes en perte de dynamisme (on peut soutenir en simplifiant que tout ce qui est un peu trop éloigné d’un chef-lieu plus ou moins correctement équipé continue à se vider) et enfin les campagnes enperte de vitesse, avec des communes très peu peuplées et vieillies, ayant de très faibles densités (surtout dans les zones de montagne et semi montagne ainsi que dans certaines îles de la mer Egée), entrainant –sauf rares exceptions- le déclin des villes proches.Et l’avenir?Quels scenarios?Pendant longtemps la croissance démographique grecque s’est faite au détriment des campagnes et au profit des zones urbaines, plus particulièrement de celle d’Athènes, alors que les politiques d’aménagement du territoire et de décentralisation ont complètement échoué. Les déséquilibres se sont accrus et aucun renversement de tendance n’est observé, la répartition géographique des espaces en déclin et en expansion n’étant pas profondément modifiée.

Il y a désormais en Grèce de vastes espaces en crise, très peu peuplés et présentant un vieillissement accru. Cette évolution, observée au cours de la période d’après-guerre, va-t-elle se poursuivre ? Si on ne peut répondre avec certitude, car il est impossible de prévoir le futur, on peut toutefois émettre quelques hypothèses: On peut raisonnablement envisager que le mouvement de dépeuplement des campagnes et de la montagne soit fini de même que les flux migratoires internes vers les villes qui ont bouleversé la répartition spatiale de la population dans l’après-guerre.

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On peut tout aussi raisonnablement penser qu’à cause de la crise récente -une crise profonde qui risque de perdurer -, se traduisant par la montée en flèche du chômage (spécialement des jeunes) et les difficultés croissantes que commence à rencontrer une partie de la population des grandes agglomérations (en âge de travail ou à la retraite), il y aura un renversement progressif des tendances, poussant à un retour à la « terre natale » pour les migrants internes des dernières décennies, les plus touchés par la crise.

L’intensité de ces mouvements est difficile à prévoir. Il est tout autant difficile de prévoir si ces mouvements pourront radicalement modifier la configuration du peuplement en Grèce. En effet à partir d’un certain seuil - seuil par ailleurs atteint dans la plupart des espaces vidés de leur population au cours des décennies passées- leur revitalisation est extrêmement difficile sans une stratégie volontariste et, surtout sans moyens financiers importants (or compte-tenu de l’ampleur de la crise actuelle, il est peu probable que de tels moyens soient déployés au cours des deux prochaines décennies). Il reste alors l’initiative familiale ou communale, mais leurs possibilités objectives sont limitées et, il est plus que probable qu’elles ne suffiront pas à modifier radicalement le paysage. Enfin, s’il est peu probable que l’on assiste à un renversement radical en matière de répartition géographique de la population dans les deux prochaines décennies, on ne peut pas exclure que certaines régions rurales (même de montagne) bénéficiant d’une relative proximité au chef-lieu régional et/ou d’une accessibilité renforcée grâce au développement de grands axes routiers (tel Egnatia Odos dans le nord de la Grèce) pourront bénéficier d’un relatif essor démographique, si ce n’est en termes de population permanente tout au moins de population résidant par intermittence.

Mots-clés: Grèce, distribution de la population, inégalités spatiales

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Paper

DESERTIFICATION ET DEVITALISATION DE L’ESPACE CROATE Snježana Mrdjen*, Ante Šiljeg**

En général, depuis le milieu du XXe siècle et jusqu'au début des années 1990, l'État croate était marqué par un accroissement naturel de la population qui en était le trait dominant, et ce malgré le fait que dans certaines périodes intercensitaire un solde migratoire (vers l’étranger) négatif ait pu contribuer à la diminution de la population. La baisse constante du nombre de naissances vivantes et l'augmentation du nombre de décès au début des années 90 ont conduit à un accroissement naturel négatif. Ces phénomènes, couplés à une forte intensification des migrations, ont produit des changements radicaux des tendances globales du mouvement de la population. Ainsi, au niveau des localites, seulement 16% d'entre elles (soit 1 079 du total) ont affiché un solde naturel positif dans la periode intercensitaire 2001-2011, ce qui permet d'affirmer qu'il existe une forte depopulation naturelle du territoire croate.

Les changements dans la structure par âges entre le milieu du XXe siècle (1961) et 2011 montrent un vieillissement de la population, manifesté par la réduction continue de la part des jeunes et l’augmentation de la population âgée. Ces changements ont eu lieu principalement sous l’influence de la baisse de la fécondité et des émigrations, mais ont aussi subi celle, importante, de la structure par âges héritée. Les résultats des derniers recensements concernant l’ensemble des indicateurs du vieillissement démographique montrent que la population croate peut être classée dans la catégorie des populations âgées.

L'objectif de ce travail était d'analyser, dans un premier temps, la concentration de la population de 1961 à 2011 au niveau de localités/naselje (6 756) pour montrer comment la désertification c’est produite. Considérant que la croissance de la population est liée aux densités et aux formes d’organisation du territoire, on a superposé sur la même carte deux phénomènes différentes (la densité et la croissance) afin d’en révéler leur liaison. Lorsque le taux de croissance/décroissance variait, on a fait une analyse temporelle pour chaque localités pour distinguer a quelle moment il y avait le commencement de décroissance durant la période 1961-2011. * Université de Zadar, Département de Géographie, Croatie (smrdjen@unizd.hr)** Université de Zadar, Département de Géographie, Croatie (asiljeg@unizd.hr)

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Dans un deuxième temps, pour distinguer les espaces désertiques et dévitalisés du point de vue démographique de ceux densément peuplés et dynamiques, on a procédé à une analyse quantitative des caractéristiques démographiques : densité, croissance/décroissance, solde naturel, solde migratoire, vieillissement. Quant aux sources utilisées, il s’agit des données à l’échelle de localités durant les deux périodes intercensitaires (1991-2001, 2001-2011).Ces cinq indicateurs ont fait l’objet d’une analyse SIG permettant de calculer l’index de marginalisation (désertification et dévitalisation) des localités / naselja.

Mots-clés: Croatie, dévitalisation/désertification, indicateurs démographique, index de marginalisation, localités

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Poster

SPATIAL ASPECT OF DEPOPULATION IN THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA – TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES

Suzana Stanojković*, Jasna Milanković**, Gordana Bjelobrk***

The paper aims to contribute to the study of population phenomena in the Republic of Serbia(without data for Kosovo and Metohija), in the period 1991-2011, including the implications for the future patterns of population distribution and dynamics. It is mainly focused on identifying the spatial disparities in the size and structural characteristics of the population. The analysis is based on the results of population censuses, vital statistics and medium-term population projections.

At the down of the 21st century, the population of Serbia is continually on the decline, more steadily than in the period 1991-2002 (4% and 1%, respectively). There is no doubt that the largest part of the territory of Serbia is affected by depopulation process, but analyses showed that its effects are not evenly distributed over the entire territory and they are felt more in some areas than in others. In this sense, rather indicative is the case of Region Južne i Istočne Srbije, which is identified as an area with the largest decline in the population size.

Regional disparities are visible also in terms of contribution of natural change and net migration to population change. It was found that net migration is demographic driver of population growth only in Beogradski region; however, on the other side, it is the main factor of population decline in Region Južna i Istočna Srbija. In other two regions, negative natural change is the main determinant of population decrease.

*Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia (suzana.stanojkovic@stat.gov.rs) **Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia (jasna.milankovic@stat.gov.rs) ***Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia (gordana.bjelobrk@stat.gov.rs)

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The redistribution of population has resulted in spatial demographic polarization with significant, but different implications for urban and rural areas concerning the level of population development and its age structure. Serbia is faced with the increasing concentration of population in the biggest urban centres (such as Belgrade with nearly ¼ of the total population), while the rural areas are further becoming, in demographic terms, exodus zone with unfavorable population structure by age and sex.

It is quite certain that the reversal of the current demographic trends in next decades is unlikely. According to the medium variant of the SORS population projections (2011-2041), the projected population would be by 5.6% less than in 2011, and the regional differences are expected to be more expressive.

Keywords: Serbia, population redistribution, spatial aspect of depopulation, characteristics of urban and rural population

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Poster

THE MAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT AND THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF

POPULATION IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINARadoslav Corović*

Purpose of the work is to present the main characteristics of demographic development in Bosnia and Herzegovina and its population territorial distribution. Since the first modern population census in Bosnia and Herzegovina (conducted in 1879), the population grows up till the 1991 census. By the census of 1991 and the then ruling methodology the number of inhabitants amounted to 4,377,033 which is on an area of 51,197 km2 showed population density of 85.5 people per square kilometer. Although after World War II demographic transition in Bosnia and Herzegovina was clearly visible, the conflict that took place between 1992 and 1995, strongly affected the main demographic indicators of the country (total population, birth rate, spatial distribution, age structure, etc.). Total population of Bosnia and Herzegovina has been reduced, hundreds of thousands of residents were displaced within the country, and the spatial distribution of the population has significantly changed. After a short "compensatory" period, the annual number of live births is decreasing with time, and this is with the simultaneous increase in the number of deaths led to a constant negative natural population growth rate since 2009. Although before 1991 have already been formed distinct zones of depopulation (and zones of concentration of the population), along with such contemporary unfavorable demographic developments, of depopulation zones are becoming larger and areas with increasing population is getting smaller. Census 2013 data show that many urban areas recorded a reduction of the population (compared with the previous census), and among them most of the largest cities in the country.

*Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sarajevo, BiH (radoslav.corovic@bhas.ba)

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There are distinctareas thatin the coming decadesthreatens torapidlydischargeandreducethe alreadysmall number of inhabitants.These partsof the countryare characterized byextremelynegative natural increase, a negative migration balanceand thehigh averageageof the population and the expected fur the worsening of the demographic situationin these areas. More detailed and more reliable observation of demographic situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, population number, structure and allocation is aggravated by fact that the last census, with available data, was carried out 24 years ago (1991). However, data on vital and migration statistics as well as preliminary results of consensus 2013, enable identification of the main trends and characteristics of modern demographic development of Bosnia and Herzegovina and reveal possible future trends.

Keywords: population, depopulation, spatial distribution, population density, birth rate

ATELIER STATISTIQUE/STATISTICAL WORKSHOP

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Atelier/ Workshop:La collecte des données sur la population dans les pays des Balkans,

l’expérience des recensements réalisés autour de 2010: concepts, collecte de terrain, comparabilité et modalités de mises à disposition

des données/

Population data collection in the Balkan countries, the experience of the 2010 round censuses: methodological concepts, field data

collection, data comparability and data dissemination methods

Organisateurs/ Organisers: David Thorogood (Eurostat), Maja Berber (Eurostat)&Paolo Valente (UNECE)

L’objectif de cet atelier est de mette en contact d’une part, des représentants des offices statistiques de la région, producteurs des données démographiques et socio-économiques et, d’autre part, des utilisateurs de ces données. Les organisateurs de la conférence ont demandé à Eurostat et la Unece d'organiser cet atelier et des experts en provenance de ces deux institutions ont relevé le défi. Ils ont demandé aux Offices Statistiques de la région de préparer une présentation sur les recensements organisés autour de 2010. Les représentants de l'ONS de l'Albanie, Bosnie-Herzégovine, Bulgarie, Croatie, Monténégro, Kosovo et Serbie ont accepté l’invitation et ils présenteront une communication suivie d’une discussion. Les organisateurs feront un exposé introductif alors que deux documents sur recensement établi par Mme Katerina Kostadinova Daskalovska et Mme Anna-Lena HOH seront présentés et discutés au cours de cet atelier.

The objective of this workshop is to bring representatives of the statistical offices and users of census data, together. The Scientific Committee of this Conference asked Eurostat and UNECE to organize this workshop and experts coming from these two institutions took the challenge. They asked the NSOs of the region to prepare presentation about the 2010 round censuses. The introductory presentations on the workshop are from Eurostat and UNECE experts, while the representatives of the NSOs of

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Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Montenegro, Kosovo and Serbia will present papers on their recent censuses. In addition, two papers on census prepared by Ms. Katerina Kostadinova Daskalovska and Ms. Anna-Lena HOH are part of the workshop program.

Introduction par / Introduction by: David Thorogood (Eurostat), Maja Berber (Eurostat)&Paolo Valente (UNECE); Marius Andersen (Eurostat)

Communications présentées par: / Papers presented by:1. Emira GALANXHI, Blerina SUBASHI & Majlinda NESTURNI (SO Albania): „The experience of 2011 Census in Albania”2. Radoslav COROVIĆ (SO BiH): „Census in Bosnia and Herzegovina –challenges and experiences”3. Elka YAKIMOVA-DINEVA& Magdalena KOSTOVA (SO Bulgaria): „The experience of 2010 census round in Bulgaria”4. Ivana LASAN (SO Croatia): „2011 Census experience in Croatia”5. Avni KASTRATI (SOKosovo):„Population Census in Kosovo, 2011”6. Snezana REMIKOVIC (SO Montenegro): „Census of Population, Household and Dwellings in 2011 in Montenegro”7. Snežana LAKČEVIČ, Ljiljana DJORDJEVIC, Marija MUCIC (SOSerbia): „The 2011 Census in the Republic of Serbia - experiences, innovations and lessons learned”8. Katerina KOSTADINOVA DASKALOVSKA, Republic of Macedonia: „Definition of usual resident population and its practical implementation in the field data collection in the 2010 round population and housing censuses in some of the Balkan countries”9. Anna-Lena HOH, Netherlands: „Rational or legitimate Europeanisation in the Western Balkans? – A congruence analysis of census taking in Croatia, BiH and Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia”

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Paper

DEFINITION OF USUAL RESIDENT POPULATION AND ITS PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION IN THE FIELD DATA COLLECTION IN THE 2010 ROUND POPULATION AND

HOUSING CENSUSES IN SOME OF THE BALKAN COUNTRIES Katerina Kostadinova Daskalovska∗

The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of the applied definition of usual resident population and its practical implementation in the field data collection in the 2010 round population and housing censuses in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, Republic of Macedonia and Republic of Serbia.

The analysis is based on the census forms and methodological instructions applied in the 2010 round population and housing censuses in the aforementioned countries, the available reports from international observation missions, public information from the media as well as the author's personal experience gained through participation in the preparation of the 2011 Census in Montenegro and international observation missions for the preparation and implementation of the 2011 Census in Kosovo and 2013 Census Bosnia and Herzegovina. In addition, was made an attempt to analyze the factors which influenced or may have influenced the implementation of the defined methodology during the field data collection.

Balkan countries that emerged after the dissolution of SFR Yugoslavia, up to 1990 round censuses were calculating the total population of the country based on permanent place of residence. Switching to the concept of “usual resident population” has a significant impact on the overall preparation of the census and its implementation. One of the reasons is that applied concept of "persons temporally working abroad" for all entirely absent households or for absent household members, regardless how long they were residing abroad, is still present in the perception of the population in this region.

∗Census expert, Republic of Macedonia, (katerina.kdaskalovska@gmail.com)

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Furthermore, a significant role plays the politicization of the census based on inclusion of ethno-cultural characteristics of the population (ethnicity, language and religion) in the census.

For proper implementation of the definition on usual resident population in the field, as well as proper implementation of the census methodology at all, despite solid professional and timely preparations by statistical authorities, it is necessary consensus for commitment to a successful census of all parties involved in the social and political life of a country and to prevent the politicization of the census that may jeopardize its success. Census information and publicity campaigns should be organized and controlled exclusively by the statistical authorities responsible for the organization and implementation of the census.

Keywords: Balkan countries, population and housing census, census methodology, usual place of residence, data collection, census campaign, census politicization

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Paper

RATIONAL OR LEGITIMATE EUROPEANISATION IN THE WESTERN BALKANS? – A CONGRUENCE ANALYSIS OF

CENSUS TAKING IN CROATIA, BIH AND FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA Anna Lena Hoh*

More than a decade after the European Union (EU) extended the membership perspective to the Western Balkans in 2000; there are considerable differences in the census taking standards and attitudes towards census taking across the countries from the region. This was also visible in the 2010 census round. Some countries were quite advanced with regard to implementing the census, but for example the Former Yugoslav of Macedonia aborted the census in 2011 and has since then not made any advance towards a new population count. This paper focusses on the influence of the EU in the Western Balkan area within the broader concept of EU enlargement, and the collection of national statistics in particular. The population count falls within the EU acquis communautaire under the chapter of statistics (European Commission, 2014b). Taking into account all the dimensions of the acquis census taking seems to be a rather small exercise; however it is an immense undertaking to count every inhabitant of a country. The data of thepopulation forms the backbone of national statistics; there is much (inter-)national debate about the compilation of census data (see for example UNECE Task Force, 2013). As important decisions over the distribution of public funds and/or the allocation of institutional quotas for various societal (ethnic/linguistic) groups are based on census data, census taking can be a highly sensitive issue in a society (Kertzer & Arel, 2002; Visoka & Gjevori, 2013). This paper aims at explaining the variation in census taking in the 2010 census round considering (a) the conditionality of the EU regulations in the area of census taking and (b) the legitimacy of the EU regulations on census taking. While the aspect of conditionality looks at the incentives (and disincentives) the EU offers in light of a cost-benefit calculation, the aspect of the legitimacy of the EU census regulations analyses whether these rules can be accepted based on their

*Maastricht University, Netherlands (anna-lena.hoh@maastrichtuniversity.nl)

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perception of appropriateness (Noutcheva, 2009). Three countries have been chosen as examples, which are in different stages of census taking and EU accession. Croatia has completed the census of 2011 and has become an EU member in 2013. The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia aborted its census of 2011 and is a candidate country. Bosnia and Herzegovina has conducted the census in 2013, but still needs to publish the results and is considered a potential candidate of the EU. Congruence analysis (Blatter & Haverland, 2012) will be used to compare conditionality and legitimacy of the EU regulation for census taking by analysing official documents and in-depth interviews with officials of the case countries. This will be complemented by an analysis of survey data conducted among census experts. As EU accession countries have to comply with the EU norms even in the period before accession; it is expected that census taking constitutes a good basis for analysing a country’s progress towards alignment with EU standards.

Key words: Western Balkans, European Union, census