Field trip 24 February 2005

Departs 0915 from Town Lodge

Exercise outline

• Extents

• Variables

• Response curves

• Region vs species

Ex1

• Country specific

• Load amd.prac1.dbf, add event theme

• Load countries.shp

• Select country

• Theme -> Select by theme, export points within selected country to dbf file.

• Switch to R

Ex 1 (R)

• R background: why R? (incl on CD, user base, support, FREE)

• Package -> Load packages.• Select MASS, somers2 and mgcv libraries• Open AIACCfunctions.R• Cntrl-A to select all, then press Run button• Loads functions needed• Open -> AIACCscript.R

Ex1 (R)…2

• Explanation of script (on screen)

Select country specific species (species number in column of dbf

file)• RSA: 215, 213, 117, 229• DRC/Zaire/Congo: 106, 305• Kenya: 135, 166, 182, 242• Mozambique: 182, 349• Tanzania 156, 182, 336, 244• Burundi: 069• Namibia: 136, 317, 348• Zimbabwe: 348, 219• Zambia: 342, • Uganda: 233• Malawi: 155, 108• Botswana: 130, 090• ALL; 161, 145, 99, 70

How to run script1. On-screen demo: select and run relevant parts of script2. Edit where needed3. Start with 1 variable, run model.4. Plot response curve5. Predictions and evaluations (Evaluation output interpretation

using AUC value; if model ok, then estimate cutoff)6. Do binary transformation (apply cut-off to prob surface)7. Export to dbf, and open in AV.8. Create event theme, view results.9. Save script with new name before step10. 10. Repeat steps 3 to 8 with 3 and 5 variables.11. ID best model12. Apply model to CC data.

Ex2

• Use best model and repeat for different spatial extents.

Panel discussion

• Species vs communities

• 3 tiers: biome-equilibrium state species-dynamic state species

• Biome level analysis is first pass solution

• Non-unique climate space (no discreet boundaries)

• No coherent community shifts (time and space)