Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

29
FIDELITY JAPANESE VALUES PLC. Investment Review May 2012 Shinji Higaki Portfolio Manager This information does not constitute investment advice and should not be used as the basis of any investment decision, nor should it be treated as a recommendation for any investment. The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you invest. Investments in overseas markets can be subject to currency fluctuations and will effect the value of your investments.

Transcript of Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

Page 1: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

FIDELITY JAPANESE VALUES PLC.

Investment Review

May 2012Shinji Higaki Portfolio Manager

This information does not constitute investment advice and should not be used as the basis of any investment decision, nor should it be treated as a recommendation for any investment. The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may get back

less than you invest. Investments in overseas markets can be subject to currency fluctuations and will effect the value of your investments.

Page 2: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited

Contents

2

1 Performance Review

2 Investment Strategy

3 Market Environment in Japan

4 Appendix – Portfolio Positioning and others

Page 3: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited3

Performance as at 31 March 2012

Source: FIL Limited, data as of 31/03/12Currency: GBP. Basis: bid to bid with net income reinvested. Performance does not include an initial charge.

Cumulative Performance Since Inception

Past performance is not a guide to what might happen in the future.

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NAV Share Price Russell/Nomura Mid Small Cap Index

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Fund Russell/Nomura Mid Small Cap Index Relative%

Performance Snapshot as at 31 March 2012

Page 4: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited

5 Year Performance Comparison

Cumulative Returns (%) as at 30 April 2012 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year Since Launch

NAV 1.13 0.97 2.37 -31.55Share Price 0.93 -3.58 1.16 -40.15Russell/Nomura Mid Small Cap Index -2.14 1.47 0.82 1.00TOPIX -1.27 2.14 -1.43 -40.27

Annual Performance over the Past 5 Years

Returns (%) over 12 months to: 30-Apr-2012 30-Apr-2011 30-Apr-2010 30-Apr-2009 30-Apr-2008

NAV 2.37 -2.87 38.14 -23.50 -15.70Share Price 1.16 -3.39 35.58 -24.88 -23.32Russell/Nomura Mid Small Cap Index 0.83 -7.93 24.04 -5.37 -10.54TOPIX -1.43 -8.31 19.30 -12.35 -7.87

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Past performance is not a guide to what might happen in the future.Source: FIL Limited, 30 April 2012 *Launch date is 15 March 1994; Net returns in GBP terms; Benchmark: TSE Second Section Index linked with Russell/Nomura Mid Small Cap Index

Page 5: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited5

Source: FIL Limited, data as of 31/03/12

Stock selection struggled, but currency gains and dividend income partially offset the negative impact over the last 12 months

Performance Attribution Summary

Performance Summary in GBP as at 31 March 2012

2.3% Net Asset Value Per Share (£) -0.1%

2.9% Share Price (£) -1.1%

4.3% Russell/Nomura Mid-Small Cap Index (£) 0.9%

-9.1% Currency (£/¥) 1.0%

% change (3 months) Performance Summary % change (12 months)

Performance Attribution SummaryChange in Pence Change in Pence

(3 months to 31/03/12) (12 months to 31/03/12)9.40 Index -0.090.76 Index Income 1.34

-3.26 Stock Selection -0.86-6.74 Currency 0.701.46 Gearing -0.020.00 Share Repurchases -0.20

-0.13 Other -0.961.49 Change in NAV (£) -0.092.3% Change in NAV (% ) -0.1%

Attribution Summary

Past performance is not a guide to what might happen in the future.

Page 6: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited6

Try to generate alpha through stock selection

Source: FIL Limited; Data as of 31/03/12

Relative Performance Attribution Summary 12-month Relative Performance Attribution for the Ungeared Portfolio

as at 31 March 2012Quarterly Relative Performance Attribution for

the Ungeared Portfolio

(1,000) (500) 0 500 1,000

Q2 12*

Q1 12

Q4 11

Q3 11

Q2 11

Q1 11

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Q1 09

Stock Selection Sector Selection

basis points

Source: FIL Limited; *Quarter to Date as of 20/04/12

(150) (100) (50) 0 50 100 150

Monotaro

Fast Retailing

Maruwa

Shin-Kobe Electric Machinery

Nuflare Technology

NPC

Elpida Memory

Asahi Diamond Industrial

Osaka Titanium Technology

Cyber Agent

Top 5 & Bottom 5 Stocksbasis points

(180) (120) (60) 0 60 120 180

Retail Trade (underweight)

Glass & Ceramics

Electric Power & Gas (underweight)

Chemicals

Rubber Products

Real Estate (underweight)

Nonferrous Metals (underweight)

Electrical Machinery

Transport Equipment

Machinery

Top 5 & Bottom 5 Sectors

Stock Selection

Sector Allocation

basis points

Past performance is not a guide to what might happen in the future.

Page 7: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited

Contents

7

1 Performance Review

2 Investment Strategy

3 Market Environment in Japan

4 Appendix – Portfolio Positioning and others

Page 8: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited8

Portfolio Construction

High-conviction approach

Sector allocation is a result of stock selection

Stock Selection

Focus on companies with strong earnings growth

– Internet services

– Factory automation equipment makers benefiting from Chinese capital expenditures

– Global niche players: auto parts

Current Investment Strategy

Page 9: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited

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FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011

('000 views)

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Internet services and infrastructure providers in new business:– M3 – operator of medical internet portal– Kakaku.com - beneficiary of growing on-line consumer services– Bit-Isle - data storage service provider– GMO Payment Gateway – online account settlement services

Source: company data as of 31/03/2012

Continued growth in internet services and infrastructures provide investment opportunities in new business areas

Source: company data as of 31/12/2011; Japanese fiscal year (April - March)

Kakaku.com – Monthly Page Views and Usersm3.com – Number of Emails Read by Doctors

Current Stock Selection Theme: Internet Service

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Reference to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities, but is included for the purposes of illustration only. Investors should also note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon by Fidelity.

Page 10: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited

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Japanese manufacturers of FA equipment parts benefiting from Chinese demand

– Sanyo Denki - servo motors for robots– Harmonic Drive Systems – precise motion control components– SMC – pneumatic equipment– Fanuc – CNC equipment, industrial robotics, machine tools * CNC: computer numeric control

Source: Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, data as of 31/3/2011 (annual data)

Labour shortage and wage increases likely to accelerate factory automation in China

Source: company data, FIL Limited, data as of 11/04/2012

Harmonic Drive Systems – Order GrowthChina – Monthly Wage

Stock Selection Theme: Factory Automation (FA) Equipment Makers

Page 11: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited

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('000 units)

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Niche auto parts makers benefiting from long-term growth in emerging markets– Takata: Seat belts and airbags => Safety– JSP: Polystyrene materials for auto parts => Lightweight vehicle production– Nifco: Plastic fasteners => Lightweight vehicle production– Sekisui Chemical: Interlayer films for laminated glass => Lightweight vehicle production

Source: FOURIN, Automotive Yearbook, Mizuho SecuritiesData as of 11/01/2012

Global New Automobile Sales Forecast

Production normalised after impact of earthquake and Thai floodsNo change to the long-term growth story

Source: Toyota – company data, FIL Limited, data as of 25/04/2012

Current Stock Selection Theme: Niche Global Players

Toyota Monthly Daily Production Plan vs Actual Production

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-3M Plan -2M Plan -1M Plan Actual Production(units)

Page 12: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited

Contents

12

1 Performance Review

2 Investment Strategy

3 Market Environment in Japan

4 Appendix – Portfolio Positioning and others

Page 13: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited

Japan – Market Environment Summary

Near-term market sentiment driven by macroeconomic newsflow, but investors’ focus should eventually revert to individual company fundamentals and earnings over the mid-term

Global investors returning to Japan. However, buying levels remain below previous peaks, suggesting further potential upside.

Corporate earnings in Japan are on a clear recovery trend; potential upward revisions to management’s earnings guidance for FY2011/12

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Japan remains a stock picker’s marketDespite macro headwinds, Corporate Japan’s earnings recovery is on track

Page 14: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited

Overseas Investors Turned Net Buyers of Japanese Equities from Early 2012

Source: Bloomberg, data as of 06/04/12

For the year to date, foreign investors have bought more than ¥2trn of Japanese stocks, which equates to almost 70% of the amount sold in 2H 2011

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Overseas Investors & TOPIX

Net Transactions by Foreign Investors (4-week moving average)

TOPIX (rhs)

Page 15: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited

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OECD leading index versus TOPIX

TOPIX (year-on-year % change; left hand scale)

OECD + Major Six Composite Leading Indicator

Liquidity-driven Global Recovery Gaining Traction

TOPIX in JPYSource: OECD, Bloomberg. Data as of 31/03/12

As a global cyclical play, Japan is benefiting from a more stable external environment & yen reversal

TOPIX in JPY Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 06/04/2012

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Dollar-yen rate versus TOPIX

Dollar-yen rate (left hand scale)¥/$ rate 52-week moving average (left hand scale)TOPIX (right hand scale)

Page 16: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited

Source: Bloomberg, data as of 31/03/12

Global Market Performance in US$ since 1998

Long-term Trends in Global Equity Markets

Developed equity markets when measured in US$ have been highly correlated for over a decade

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TOPIX (US$) S&P500 (US$) FTSE100 (US$) Stoxx Europe 600 (US$)

(Indexed to 100 as at 31 Dec. 97)

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Past performance is not a guide to the future. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.

Page 17: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited

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TOPIX (lhs) US 10Y Govt Bond Yield (rhs)

(%)(TOPIX)

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of 31/03/12

TOPIX in JPY vs. US Long Bond Yield

Mr. Bond Travels with Equities

TOPIX correlation with US 10-year yields remains strong

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Past performance is not a guide to the future. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.

Page 18: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited

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¥/US$ (lhs, inverted) Total RP (all industries)

(¥/$, inverted)(Corporate Recurring Profits ,

¥ billion)

Total Corporate Profits & the Yen

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(%)TOPIX Earnings Revision Index (RI)(Fiscal Year 2011 & Fiscal Year 2012)

Current FY RI (4-week total) Next FY RI (4-week total)

Periods of Yen Strength Not an Obstacle to Corp. Profits

Source: Ministry of Finance, Bloomberg. Data as of 31/12/2011

Stronger yen has gone hand-in-hand with higher corporate profits & prospects for earnings rebound in FY12 improving

Source: DIR, Bloomberg. Data as of 31/03/12

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Page 19: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited

Japanese Market Valuations at Historical Lows

TOPIX CAPER(Cyclically-Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio)

TOPIX Price-to-Book Ratio

Note: Monthly from 01/85 through 03/12. Latest data point as of 31/03/12. CAPER: market cap / average operating profit for the past 5 fiscal years.

PBR: based on reported Book Price Per Share.

Source: Nomura Securities

Valuations remain supportive, with both earnings & asset based metrics at historical lows

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Page 20: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited

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Share buybacks & dividends by Japanese companies

Buyback (lhs) Dividends (lhs) Shareholders Return/Shareholders' Equity (rhs)

(Y tn) (%)

Abundant cashflow fuelling gains in shareholder returns

Source: Company data, GS Global. Data as of 31/12/2011Note: Based on 1,490 Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section non-financials with consolidated data available since March, 2006

Despite a series of shocks in 2011, corporate Japan continued to improve shareholder returns

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Page 21: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited

FCF Yield PBR 2008 PB EV/EBITDA ROE 10-year

(x,%) FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY13E FY12E Trough FY12E FY12E Bond Yield

Japan 50% 14% 15 13.1 6.5% 1.0 0.9 6.4 6.9% 1.0%

US 3% 7% 14.1 13.3 6.3% 2.3 1.5 7.6 17.5% 2.4%

Europe -1% 12% 11.5 10.3 7.2% 0.9 1.0 6.6 8.2% 2.4%

Asia ex. Japan 14% 15% 11.8 10.5 4.3% 1.6 1.2 6.5 14.5% -

EPS Growth PER

Global Valuation Comparison

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ResearchData as of 15/03/*12 for Europe and as of 19/03/12 for the rest.

While not quite as compelling as last year, valuations remain supportive of the Japanese market overall

Note: Japanese universe is TSE1. US universe is S&P500. European universe is GS covered firms which are part of DJ Stoxx 600 (excluding financials). EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA excludes financials. P/E for US is based on GS Global ECS Research operating EPS forecasts, and P/E for Europe is on a pre-amortization basis. Asia excluding Japan universe is MSCI US$ basis market index (local currency) and is based on FactSet and I/B/E/S estimates.

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Acronyms in the table:EPS (Earnings Per Share); PER (Price to Earnings Ratio); FCF (Free Cash Flow); PBR (Price to Book Ratio); PB (Price to Book multiple); EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization); ROE (Return on Equity); FY (Fiscal Year); E (Estimate)

Page 22: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited

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TSE2 JASDAQ TOPIX Small Russell/Nomura Mid Small Cap Index(Indexed

to 100 as at 31 Dec. 91)

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Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 31/03/2012

Small-cap indices relative to TOPIX (price index)

Past performance is not a guide to what might happen in the future.

Small Cap Outperformance Relative to TOPIX (in JPY)

Small cap stocks have outperformed the market average over the long-term

Page 23: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited23

Undervalued Small Cap Stocks

Source: FIL, FACTSET. Data as of 31/03/2013

Price to Earnings Ratiobased on 12-month forward Earnings Per Share

Price to Book Ratio

Small cap stocks are cheaper than large cap stocks

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TOPIXRussell/Nomura Mid Small Cap IndexRussell/Nomura Small Cap Index

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Page 24: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited24

Large investment universe with over 2000 names – a plethora of growth opportunities

Currently ignored and unloved – opportunities to unlock hidden value

The market cycle suggests that small cap stocks could return to favour

The Case for Investing in Japanese Mid/Small Cap Stocks

Stock selection strategy should be best suited to uncover both growth and value opportunities in the Japanese small cap market

Page 25: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited

Contents

25

1 Performance Review

2 Investment Strategy

3 Market Environment in Japan

Page 26: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited26

Source: FIL Limited, data as of 31/03/2012

Top holdings are those securities in which the latest percentage of find's total assets are invested. They do not include FX forwards and deposits. A full list of holdings, including derivatives, can be found in the fund's annual and/or semi-annual report and accounts.

Top 10 Holdings & Portfolio Concentration

TOP10 Holdings % Portfolio% Russell/Nomura

Mid Small Cap IndexM3 (CFD) 3.8 0.1Takata (CFD) 3.7 0.1Sekisui Chemical (CFD) 3.4 0.3Maruwa 3.2 0.0Kakaku.Com (CFD) 2.9 0.1GMO Payment Gateway 2.7 0.0Bit-Isle 2.5 0.0Cyber Agent 2.3 0.1Hitachi High-Technologies 2.0 0.1Hitachi Chemical 1.9 0.1Total 28.5 0.9

Portfolio Concentration (%) PortfolioRussell/Nomura Mid

Small Cap IndexTop 10 Concentration 28.5 7.2Top 20 Concentration 45.4 13.0Top 30 Concentration 57.7 18.3

No. of Holdings PortfolioRussell/Nomura Mid

Small Cap Index96 1335

Page 27: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited

(10.00)

(5.00)

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00 Services

Chemicals

Information & Communication

Glass & Ceramics Rubber Products

Transport Equipment Precision Instruments Electric Power & Gas

Nonferrous Metals

Real Estate

Textiles & Apparel

Insurance

Metal Products

Machinery

Other Financing Business

Iron & Steel

Mining

Fishing, Agriculture, & Forestry

Wholesale Trade

Warehousing & Harbour Transportation Service

Other Products

Air Transportation Oil & Coal Products

Pulp & Paper

Marine Transportation

Securities

Retail Trade

Pharmaceuticals

Electrical Appliances Land Transportation

Foods

Construction

Banks

Portfolio (%)

Russell/Nomura Mid Small Cap Index (%)

Relative Weights vs. Russell/Nomura Mid Small Cap Index (%)

%

27

Source: FIL Limited, portfolio data on a rescaled basis, as of 31/03/12

Sector Distribution Relative to the Index

Holdings can vary from those in the index quoted. For this reason the comparison index is used for reference only.

Page 28: Fidelity Japanese Values PLC - AGM

© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited28

Size Band Distribution

Source: FIL Limited, portfolio data on a rescaled basis, as of 31/03/2012

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

LARGE > JPY 500 Billion

MEDIUM > JPY 100 Billion

SMALL <= JPY 50 Billion

Equity Portfolio RN Mid Small Cap Index%

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© FIL Investments (Japan) Limited29

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