F&I Conference 2014 Keynote speaker – Andy Gruber, Director, Alphera UK
description
Transcript of F&I Conference 2014 Keynote speaker – Andy Gruber, Director, Alphera UK
March 2014
F&I Conference 2014 Keynote speaker – Andy Gruber, Director, Alphera UK
ALPHERAFinancial ServicesMarch 2014Page 2
About ALPHERA Financial Services UK
• ALPHERA Financial Services UK is based in Hook, Hampshire. • Alphera operates across the F&I sector and provides retail
and commercial finance for franchised dealers, independents and brokers.
• Worldwide, Alphera provides innovative vehicle finance solutions in more than 25 countries, including the USA, South Africa, Australia and Germany.
• Alphera had a record year in 2013 with the highest volume, lowest RV risk and lowest credit risk costs in its history.
• For more information, visit our website: www.alphera.co.uk
ALPHERAFinancial ServicesMarch 2014Page 3
“F&I Through the Looking Glass” Building Firm Foundations for Sustainable Growth
ALPHERAFinancial ServicesMarch 2014Page 4
Economic Overview of the UKCurrent state of the UK economy
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
3,5%
4,0%
2013
2014
2015
Inflation
-6,0%
-5,0%
-4,0%
-3,0%
-2,0%
-1,0%
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%20
1320
1420
15
GDP
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
7,0%
8,0%
9,0%
10,0%
2013
2014
2015
Unemployment
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6 3M LIBOR
1Y GBP SWAP
3Y GBP SWAP
Interest Rate Development
35
50
65
Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13
EXPANDINGAbove 50
CONTRACTINGBelow 50
PMI
Red line stands for central bank target.Dark grey lines stand for 15y-averages with max/min-values.
ALPHERAFinancial ServicesMarch 2014Page 5
Economic Overview of the UKOfficial Growth Forecasts
ALPHERAFinancial ServicesMarch 2014Page 6
Economic Overview of the UKCar industry confidence
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total UK New Car Market Industry Volume 2003-2013million units
ALPHERAFinancial ServicesMarch 2014Page 7
Economic Overview of the UKCar industry confidence
Market Volume – New and Used (million units)
ALPHERAFinancial ServicesMarch 2014Page 8
Average age of used car market
Economic OverviewAge of the current UK car parc
ALPHERAFinancial ServicesMarch 2014Page 9
Looking back at 2013.Development in the Automotive Market.
Suzuki 33,088 32.9%Skoda 66,081 23.3%Fiat 60,198 20.6%Mazda 31,228 19.3%Mercedes Benz 109,456 19.2%Seat 45,312 16.8%Audi 142,040 14.9%Jaguar 16,210 14.9%Renault 46,173 13.3%Land Rover 54,699 12.5%
Vauxhall 259,444 11.7%Nissan 117,967 11.5%Ford 310,865 10.3%Kia 72,090 8.2%Citroen 78,358 6.4%BMW 135,583 6.3%Volkswagen 194,085 6.0%Peugeot 105,435 6.0%Toyota 88,648 4.8%Hyundai 76,918 3.5%Honda 55,660 2.7%
GGGG
G
F
F
F
P
PP
P
P
V
V
V
V
A
A
A
A
Overall: +10.77%
ALPHERAFinancial ServicesMarch 2014Page 10
CAP Gold Book.A new RV setting methodology.
Plate 36/30 average movement
36/60 average movement
09 19% 18%
10 18% 16%
11 17% 15%
12 14% 10%
13 8% 7%
ALPHERAFinancial ServicesMarch 2014Page 11
Great forecasts, great results.All rosy for the F&I Industry?
ALPHERAFinancial ServicesMarch 2014Page 12
Change in consumer behaviour.Driven by PCP offers and Hyper Competition.
12
Total private car sales by funding type
2008 2009 2010e 2011 2012 2013e20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Consumer (including personal loans)DealerSource:
Glass’s
ALPHERAFinancial ServicesMarch 2014Page 13 Hyper Competition deals has started to
adversely impacted nearly-new RVs, but not yet 3yr values.
13
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08Se
p-08Feb
-09 Jul-09Dec-
09
May-10
Oct-10Mar-
11Aug
-11Jan
-12Jun
-12Nov-
12Apr-
13Se
p-13Feb
-14 Jul-14Dec-
14
May-15
Oct-15
0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20
RV 36m index RV 36m index (f'cast)RV 12m index RV 12m index (f'cast)
ASCI and AMCI trend (moving basket)
Source: Glass’s, Jan 2007 = 1.00 (RV £/£)
ALPHERAFinancial ServicesMarch 2014Page 14
The Challenge of ChangeUpcoming FCA regulations
FCA
ALPHERAFinancial ServicesMarch 2014Page 15
Looking AheadWhat will the market look like in 2016/2017?
ALPHERAFinancial ServicesMarch 2014Page 16
ConclusionWhat does this mean for motor retailers?
Know your customers and your market:• Targeted campaigns• Targeted customer retention processes• Target the right people for your dealership• Target the right lenders
March 2014
F&I Conference 2014Thank you for joining us.