Fertilizer Industry Handbook

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Yara Fertilizer Industry Handbook31 May 2005

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Yara Fertilizer Industry Handbook 2005 - Page: 2

List of contents

Fertilizer industry overviewWhat is fertilizer?The global industryThe European industry

Fertilizer industry dynamics AmmoniaUrea

Industry value driversDrivers of demandDrivers of supplyPrice relationsProduction economics

Yara Fertilizer Industry Handbook

This handbook describes the fertilizer industry and in particular the nitrogen part which is the most relevant for Yara International.The document does not describe Yara or its strategy. For information on Yara specific issues please see the Capital Markets Day presentations.Fertilizers are essential plant nutrients that are applied to a crop to achieve optimal yield and quality.The following slides describe the value and characteristics of fertilizers in modern food production.

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Plants need three main nutrients:Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium

NNPP

KK

Nitrogen is the main driver of yieldNitrogen is the main driver of yield

YIELD ANDYIELD ANDQUALITYQUALITY

Three main nutrients: Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium

Nitrogen (N), the main constituent of protein, is essential for growth and development in plants. As nitrogen is one of the single most common nutrient that limits agricultural productivity, its value in modern food production is unquestionable. Supply of nitrogen determines a plant’s growth, vigour, colour and yield.

Phosphorus (P) is vital for adequate root development and helps the plant resist drought. Phosphorus is also important for plant growth and development, such as the ripening of seed and fruit.

Potassium (K) is central to the translocation of photosynthates within plants, and for high yielding crops. Potassium helps improve crop resistance to lodging, disease and drought.

In addition to the three primary nutrients, the secondary nutrients sulphur, magnesium and calcium are required for optimum crop growth. Calcium is particularly essential for yield, quality and storage capacity of high value crops such as fruit and vegetables.

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Plants need nutrients to grow

YIELD B

oro

n

Lig

ht

Wa

ter

Nit

rog

en

Po

tass

ium

Ph

osp

ho

rus

Ca

lciu

m

Soil conditions & other growth factors

Sod

ium

Wa

rmth

Oxyg

en

Nutrient behaviour

• Nutrients have specific and essential functions in plant metabolism

• They cannot replace each other, and lack of any one nutrient limits crop growth

The law of minimum

The ‘law of minimum’ is often illustrated with a water barrel, with staves of different lengths. Such a barrel for illustration purposes could be thought of as a plant. The barrel`s capacity to hold water (or the plant’s capacity to reach maximum yield) is determined by the shortest stave. The yield of plants is frequently limited by shortage of nutrients or water. Once the limiting factor (constraint) has been corrected, yield will increase until the next limiting factor is encountered.Nutrients are classified into three sub-groups based on plant growth needs. These are:• Macro or primary nutrients: nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K)• Major or secondary nutrients: calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg) and sulfur (S)• Micro nutrients or trace elements: chlorine (Cl), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn),boron (B), selenium (Se), zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo) etc.

Yield responses to nitrogen are frequently observed, as nitrogen is often a limiting factor to crop production, but not the only factor. Balanced nutrition is used to obtain maximum yield and avoid shortages of nutrients.

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Major impacts on global agriculture– from quantity to quality

• Less driven by supply-side economics and stimulus of support policies

• More driven by demand and consumer food preferences

• Food quality characteristics can be fostered by farmers

• Profitable farming will shift from “raw material” to “food value” producers

Requires better agronomic practices

Source: McInerney, J (2002) The production of food: From quantity to quality. Quoted in ‘Farming for Health: The future for agriculture by Welch, R. 30th IFA Enlarged Council Meeting, Santiago, Chile 1-3 December 2004

Improving human health is a key component of the future of agriculture globally

The World Health Organization in 2004 acknowledged that malnutrition, including undernutrition and nutritional deficiencies is a major cause of death and chronic diseases worldwide. Human beings require at least 50 known nutrients in sufficient amounts to lead healthy and productive lives. Since agriculture is the primary source of all micronutrients for human consumption, it may well mean that agricultural systems are failing to meet nutritional needs of the population. This implies that agriculture must change in ways that will provide for adequate nutrition for the global population – i.e., quality agriculture must increasingly become a part of profitable farming enterprises from an economic perspective.The fertilizer industry can greatly contribute to the future of ‘agriculture for health’ by developing suitable products that have a high content of plant-available micronutrients adapted to specific crops, soils, climates and health needs.

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... yields healthy food for people …

Healthy food for plants …

The value of fertilizers in modern food production is clear

The quality of the food is a natural concern for consumers. Mineral fertilizers are based on natural nutrients that plants need to realize their growth potential. Balanced nutrition, i.e., supplying the right nutrients in the right amounts, is essential for plants to give higher yields and better quality. Balanced nutrition is also essential for human beings. For this reason balanced fertilization of the crop plays an important role in supplying a healthy human diet.

World food production depends upon supplementing plant nutrients obtained from the soil with mineral fertilizers. Fertilizers are now indispensable for ensuring sufficient food production and preventing decline in soil productivity through nutrient depletion. The rapid increase in the world’s population and the corresponding rise in consumption have rendered fertilizers an integral part of the food chain.

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…and economic gains via low cost production

885**

593

Production cost

(€/ha)

Mineral fertilizer 192 kg N/ha

No fertilizer

Treatment

9.3

2.1

Grain yield(t/ha)

1042

235

Revenue*(€/ha)

157

-358

Profit(€/ha)

95

282

Production cost per ton of grain

(€/t)

* Assuming grain market price: 112 EUR/tonne (EU intervention price = 101 EUR/tonne)** Cost increase due to intensive production inclusive purchase of N fertilizer

Source: Winter wheat, long term trial, Broadbalk, Rothamsted (since 1856). Production cost: data from KTBL Germany

Fertilizers contribute to large economic gains for the farmer

The efficiency of mineral fertilizers has been well documented throughout history. Agriculture in the western hemisphere is intensive, which enables more production from a unit of land. Applying no fertilizer will usually result in financial losses for the farmer unless the land has been left uncultivated for many years. Applying an amount of 192 kg nitrogen per hectare, which is close to the agronomic optimum for winter wheat in Europe (see next page), makes it possible to produce wheat at a cost of less than EUR 100 per tonne and have an acceptable profit at today’s price levels. Thus, prudent use of fertilizers enables intensive cultivation of arable land leading to low cost of production per unit of grain.

Lower production costs for grain in turn translates into lower food prices for end consumers.

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Profitability of investment in mineral fertilizers

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Fertilizer application, kg N/ha

Inco

me

€/ha

Source: Winter wheat yield data: Long term trial, Broadbalk, Rothamsted (since 1856).

• The investment in nitrogen fertilizer is highly profitable for growers

=> Fertilizer investment: 96 €/ha=> Net return: 714 €/ha

• Net return is 7x the investment

Yield response (monetary value) to N fertilizer rate

Correct use of fertilizers may give more than 700% return on investment

At the optimum nitrogen rate of 192 kg N/ha (winter wheat in Europe), it is possible to produce 9.3 tonnes of grain per hectare. The fertilizer cost at this optimum nitrogen level is approximately 192 kg N/ha * 0.5 €/kg N = 96 €/haWith wheat prices of 112 €/t, the farmer gets the following alternative revenue scenarios:• Optimal nitrogen level: 9.30 t grain/ha * 112 € = 1042 €/ha• No nitrogen fertilizer added: 2.07 t grain/ha * 112 € = 232 €/ha

The difference in revenues is 810 €/ha resulting from an input cost of 96 €/ha, i.e., a return on investment of more than 700%.

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Breakdown grain production costs

Power & Machinery26%

Labour19%

Sprays13%

Seed5%

Fertilizer10%

General overhead expenses

10%

Rental Value17%

Source: Farm Management Pocketbook – John Nix 2004

Example: Breakdown of winter wheat production costs for a 100-200 hectare arable farm

Fertilizer cost is small compared to total grain production cost

Particularly in the developed world, the fertilizer cost is quite small compared to the total production cost of grain. This, in addition to the high return on investment of using fertilizer, explain why fertilizer is relatively price inelastic and less dependent on farm economy than other farm inputs.

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Energy creation and fixation of carbon dioxide by the use of mineral fertilizer

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Without nitrogen With nitrogen fertilizer

GJ/

ha g

rain

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Without nitrogen With nitrogen fertilizer

ton C

O2/h

a

Source: Yara German field trials

Energy balance CO2 balanceEnergycreation

CO2fixation

Applying nitrogen mineral fertilizer produces energy and fixes CO2

The energy input, for production, distribution and application of fertilizer is around 8 GJ/ha, while 55GJ/ha more energy is produced due to higher grain yield. The energy benefit is 7 times higher than the cost.In addition, CO2 is removed from the atmosphere by plants. An extra 11 ton of CO2 per hectare is fixed in the biomass, while the emission in the production, distribution and application process is only 0.4 ton per hectare. Mineral fertilizer thus contributes to reducing CO2 emissions when the biomass is burned, and fossil energy is saved.In this example 170 kg/ha nitrogen fertilizer was applied in German field trials.

Yield response (monetary value) to N fertilizer rateYield response (monetary value) to N fertilizer rate

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Nitrogen – the most important nutrient

Source: IFA statistics season 2003/2004

Total 145.6 millionnutrient tonnes

59%

24%

17%

Nutrient characteristicsPrimarybenefit Application Industry structure

Improve crop quality

Increase crop sizeMost important and commonly lacking nutrient

Annual application not always done

Annual application critical

Fewer suppliers, production discipline

Industry more fragmented, under consolidationMore volatile prices, but stable volume

Potassium (K)

Phosphorus (P)

Nitrogen (N)

Among the major plant nutrients, nitrogen is the most important for higher crop yields

The fertilizer market is composed of three main nutrients – nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium. Nitrogen is by far the largest nutrient, accounting for 60% of total consumption, and Yara is the leading producer of this nutrient.Phosphorus (phosphate) and potassium fertilizers are primarily applied to improve crop quality. Although balanced fertilization is recommended, annual application is not always done, as the soil absorbs and keeps these two nutrients for a longer period compared with nitrogen.There are fewer large suppliers of phosphate and potash fertilizers, as phosphate rock and potash mineral deposits are only available in certain regions of the world. When comparing phosphate with potash, the potash industry is the more consolidated one.Nitrogen is mainly used to increase the crop size or biomass, and must be applied every year.Nitrogen fertilizers are produced in many countries, reflecting the wide availability of key raw materials - natural gas and air, needed for its production on an industrial scale.The global nitrogen market is therefore less consolidated, but some regions such as Europe and the US have undergone significant restructuring of the nitrogen industry during the past years.

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Nitrates vs. urea

Urea NitrateAmmonium

Hydrolysis Nitrification

Plant uptake

Nitrogen in ammonium and nitrate forms are readily available to plants, while urea needs to be transformed

Nitrate is the most important fertilizer in Europe

Nitrate is the most important fertilizer in Europe

Ammonia (NH3) is the basis for all nitrogen fertilizers and it contains the highest amount of nitrogen (82%). Ammonia can be applied directly to the soil, but for several reasons, including environmental, it is common to further process ammonia into, e.g., urea or nitrates before application. If ammonia is applied directly to the soil, it will be converted to ammonium (NH4) and nitrate before plants can use it as a source of nitrogen.While ammonium and nitrate are readily available to plants, urea first needs to be transformed to ammonium and then to nitrate.The transformation process is dependent upon many environmental and biological factors. E.g., under low temperatures and low pH (as seen in Europe), urea transformation is slow and difficult to predict with resulting nitrogen and efficiency losses. Nitrates, in comparison, are readily absorbed by the plants with minimum losses. Therefore, nitrates are widely regarded as a quality nitrogen fertilizer for European agricultural conditions, which is reflected by their large market share.

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Fertilizer characteristics:Organic compared to Mineral fertilizer

Quality

Nutrient availability

Nutrient concentration

Nutrientsource

Characteristics

Traceable and consistent

Often inconsistent

Immediately available for the crop

Variable

High concentrationLow concentration

Nitrogen from the air and minerals from the soil

Crop residues and animal manures

Mineral fertilizerOrganic fertilizer

Organic fertilizer contains the same inorganic molecules as mineral fertilizer

Crops can be fed with mineral or organic fertilizers (manure), and in both cases the crop will utilize the same inorganic molecules. A complete nutrient program must take into account soil reserves, use of manure or fertilizers, and an accurate supplement of mineral fertilizers.Manures build up the organic content of soil and at the same time support beneficial micro flora (e.g., bacteria) to grow on plant roots. The efficiency of organic fertilizer is dependent on an appropriate bacteria content in the soil. The right bacteria break down the organic content in manures and supply them as nutrients for plant growth. But the quality and quantity of nutrient supplied to plants via this process is inconsistent and is very much dependent upon the vagaries of soil and climatic factors. Plant productivity achieved by supplying organic matter is low compared with mineral nutrients supplied in the form of fertilizers.Organic fertilizers or manures are often bulky making them difficult to handle. Transporting manures is expensive and therefore, their use is mostly limited to locations where they are produced. In contrast, mineral fertilizers offer concentrated, immediately available nutrients, with a consistent nutrient content. They can also be handled safely and transported relatively cheaply to any part of the world.

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The basis for mineral fertilizer: Energy, ammonia and natural minerals

Ammonia

Finished products:Urea, UANNitrates (CAN, AN)NPKSpecialty fertilizersIndustrial productsNatural

gas

Nitrogen (N) from air

Natural minerals:Phosphorus (P)Potassium (K)

Industrial production of fertilizers involves several chemical processes

The basis for producing nitrogen fertilizers such as urea, nitrates and NPK is ammonia. Ammonia is produced in industrial scale by combining nitrogen in the air with hydrogen in natural gas, under high temperature and pressure and in the presence of catalysts. This process for producing ammonia is called the ‘Haber-Bosch’ process.Phosphorus is produced from phosphate rock by digesting the latter with a strong acid. It is then combined with ammonia to form Di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) or Mono-ammonium phosphate (MAP) through a process called ammonization. Potassium is mined from salt deposits. Large deposits of potash is found in Canada and Russia, which are also the world’s major producers of this nutrient.Phosphate and potash are sold separately or combined with, e.g., nitrogen, to form NPK fertilizers.The side streams of the main production process (e.g. gases, nitrogen chemicals) are fully utilized by Yara’s specialty fertilizer and industrial products businesses.

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List of contents




The global industry

Due to the transportability of fertilizers, the industry is highly global meaning that theprice of a standard fertilizer like urea is nearly the same everywhere when correcting for transportation costs. Consequently, it becomes important to focus on global issues and supply-demand balances rather than regional ones.

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The fertilizer market in comparison

Source: Chemical Economic Handbook 2002, SRI, Phillips McDougall

60

40

14

70Fertilizers

Ethylene

Agrochemicalsand seeds

Paperchemicals

USD billion

The fertilizer market is large and global

The fertilizer market is a large, global market worth around USD 70 billion in terms of sales, in which Yara holds the leading position. This is almost twice as large as the global agrochemicals market. The fertilizer market is not only a significant market in terms of size, but is also an essential industry serving global food production.Grains are the largest end-market for fertilizers (~60%), followed by cash crops (~20-25%), such as vegetables, fruits, vines and flowers. In order to understand the fertilizer market, it is therefore necessary to understand both the grain market and the market for cash crops.In addition, fertilizer products are used in other industrial applications. Ammonia is used in the production of caprolactam, a key ingredient for the synthesis of nylon. Urea has several technical applications, the latest being its application for reduction of NOx gases from diesel trucks. Nitrate-based products are used in several environmental applications and technical grade ammonium nitrate is used as a civil explosive in the mining activities of coal and metal industries.

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Consumption per nutrient

0102030405060708090

10019

70

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

E20

06E

2008

E

Mill

ion

Tonn

es N

utrie

nt

N 1.7% per year

2.7% per yearP

K 2.7% per year

Source: IFA

Nitrogen is the largest nutrient with an expected annual growth of 1.7% per year

The fertilizer markets will continue to grow, due to higher population and improved diet. In addition, industrial use will increase. Examples are bio energy and reduction of NOX emissions.The International Fertilizer Association (IFA) forecasts the fertilizer demand growth for nitrogen at 1.7% per year up until 2008. A higher growth rate of 2.7% a year is estimated for phosphate and potassium. The difference is mainly due to the fact that nitrogen historically has grown more than the other nutrients due to the immediate and significant benefits of this nutrient. It is expected that the others will catch up going forward.Note that the expected consumption growth of each finished nitrogen fertilizer product is different from the general nitrogen growth as some products are expected to grow more than others, e.g., for urea a higher growth rate is expected as this product is taking market share from other nitrogen products.

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Nitrogen consumption per continent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005E 2007E

Mill

ion

Tonn

es N

utrie

nt 2.4% per year

Asia

Europe (EU 25) 0.6% per year

North America 0.5% per year

Latin America 3.3% per year

Source: IFA

Asia is the largest fertilizer market, but Latin America has thehighest growth rate

Asian share of global fertilizer consumption is 54%, and still growing. Developments in Asia will continue to play a major role in how the global fertilizer market will develop.Demand in Latin America has been increasing quickly due to the strong development in the agricultural sector. But in volume terms, it is still at a fairly low level. Growth is expected to continue.Consumption in the mature markets of North America and Europe is stable, and forecasted to stay stable.

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Other8 %

NPK28 %

MOP64 %

DAP/MAP43 %

NPK23 %

Other34 %

Key global fertilizer product categories

NPK9 %

Urea51 %

AN/CAN10 %

Other30 %

85 million tonnes

23 million tonnes 33 million tonnes

Nitrogen N

Potash K2O Phosphate P2O5

Source: IFA statistics season 2002/2003

Key products for pricing of the nutrients nitrogen, phosphate and potash are urea, DAP and MOP

In order to follow price developments for nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium products, urea, DAP and MOP should be used. They have a large market share and are widely traded around the globe.Urea contains 46% nitrogen, and its market share is increasing. The majority of new nitrogen capacity in the world is in urea.DAP contains 46% phosphate, measured in P2O5 units, as well as 18% nitrogen. MAP is a similar product, the main difference being that the nitrogen content is only 11%MOP is potassium chloride containing 60% potash, measured in K2O units.

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Nitrogen fertilizer demand – 5 key countries

Other5%

ABC25%

Urea60%

Nitrates (CAN/AN)

2%

NPK8%

Source: IFA 2002/03

NPK8%

Urea81%

Other11%

Other7%

UAN27%

Urea10%

Nitrates (CAN/AN)

43%NPK13%

DAP/MAP14%

AS16%

Urea47%

Nitrates (CAN/AN)

18%

NPK5%

Other10%

UAN26%

Ammonia27%

Urea20%

Nitrates (CAN/AN)

4%

NPK13%

China

India

France

Brazil

USA

Countries show different preferences for use of nitrogen products - China and India predominantly use urea as main source of nitrogen

There is considerable difference in the product mix for different regions/countries in the world. Urea, the fastest growing nitrogen product, is particularly popular in warmer climates. UAN is mainly used in Europe and North America. Nitrates are mainly used in Europe.In China, urea is the most popular. China is also the only country in the world using ammonium bicarbonate (ABC) to any degree. ABC has 25% market share in this country.

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Fertilizer market by application

Source: FAO

Corn17%

Other32%

Cotton3%

Other cereals7%

Fruit&Vegetables6%

Rice17%

Wheat18%

The three large grain crops, wheat, rice and maize (corn) consume about half of all fertilizer used in agriculture

The fertilizer market is not only a significant market in terms of size, but also an essential industry serving global food production. Grain production is the most important agricultural activity in the world, with the global output exceeding two billion tonnes in 2004.To achieve this scale of production would not be possible without intensive agriculture and use of mineral fertilizers. Therefore, grains are naturally the largest end-market for fertilizers (~60%) – this is followed by cash crops (~20-25%), such as vegetables, fruits, flowers and vines. However, in order to get a good understanding of the fertilizer market, it is necessary to understand both the grain market and the market for cash crops.

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Fertilizer company comparison– 2004 revenues*

1.5

1.9

2.7

3.0

3.2

3.2

4.5

6.4

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

GrowHow (Kemira)

Terra

ICL

Agrium

K+S

Potash

Mosaic**

Yara

USD billion

* For companies reporting in EUR, revenues are based on average USD/EUR rate for the year 2004: 1.25

** Mosaic pro forma figures for year ending 31 May 2004.

Yara is the largest fertilizer company measured by revenues

Other fertilizer-producing companies include: Sinochem (China), IFFCO (India), Eurochem (Russia), Phosagro (Russia), SAFCO (Saudi Arabia), Egyptian Fertilizer Company (EFC) and Arab Fertilizer and Chemicals Company (AFCCO) (Egypt), Uralkaly and TogliattiAzot (Russia), Cherkassy (Ukraine) and Koch (US)

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7.0

12.2

12.4

12.4

13.9

14.1

14.9

16.6

20.2

21.7

21.4

0 10 20 30

Mosaic***

Syngenta

Dow

DuPont

Kemira GrowHow

PCS

K+S

Air Products

Agrium

Yara**

BASF

7.5

9.1

10.2

10.2

11.1

12.6

13.7

15.2

16.2

17.4

17.4

0 10 20 30

IMC

PCS

DuPont

Dow

Syngenta

Kemira

K+S

Air Products

BASF

Agrium

Yara**

7.3

8.2

9.6

9.8

11.0

12.0

12.7

14.4

15.2

17.3

16.4

0 10 20 30

Dow

PCS

IMC

Agrium

Syngenta

Kemira

DuPont

K+S

BASF

Yara**

Air Products

Return on capital for chemical companiesGross return on assets*

2002 2003

* Gross return on assets defined as EBITDA (excluding non recurring items) divided by Total assets (book value)** Yara pro forma numbers

*** Mosaic from 01 June 2003 to 31 May 2004, pro forma

2004

Source: Company reports

Fertilizer industry performs at least as well as the chemical industry when comparing return on capital

Yara’s primary financial goal is to deliver a good return on capital to its shareholders. Since year 2000 Yara has benchmarked its Gross return on assets against a defined group of chemical peers, including both leading fertilizer companies and other chemical companies. From the comparisons one can see that there is no systematic difference between fertilizer and other chemical companies, and there is also no systematic difference between nitrogen fertilizer companies and potash/phosphate fertilizer companies, although both nitrogen-focused Yara and Agrium have performed well during the period.Position within the industry is more important than the characteristics of the industry per se.

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Yara – the leader in nitrogen fertilizers

4.1 4.1

3.0

4.75.1

0

2

4

6

Yara

Agrium Koc

hTerr

aPCS

Production capacity* (mill t)

Global no 1 in ammonia Global no 1 in nitrates1 Global no 1 in NPK complex fertilizer

1.5 1.4 1.4

2.1

4.6

0

2

4

6

YaraAcro

nDSM

Cherka

ssyKem

ira

2.01.7 1.5

2.3

3.7

0

2

4

Yara*

Kemira GP

Acron

Police

Production capacity (mill t) Production capacity (mill t)

1 CAN and AN* Incl. companies’ shares of JVsSource: Fertecon Source: Nitrex-ComplexSource: British Sulphur, EFMA

* Not including Rossosh

Measured in terms of production capacity, Yara is the global no. 1 both in ammonia, nitrates and NPK

Yara’s position gives it unique opportunities to reap economies of scale and spread best practices across a large network of similar plants, and forms part of the explanation for Yara’s competitive returns.

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Diversification of fertilizer companies’nitrogen product portfolios

0%10%

20%30%

40%50%60%

70%80%

90%100%

Yara Agrium PCS Nitrogen Terra

Source: Annual reports of companies

19.6 mill t 5.4 mill t 5.4 mill t 6.7 mill t

Ammonia Ammonia Ammonia Ammonia

Urea

Urea Urea

Urea

UAN

UAN

UAN

Other

Nitrates

NPKNitrates Nitrates

Nitrogen product portfolio

Nitrates

Yara is the most diversified nitrogen fertilizer company

In 2004, Yara sold 19.8 million tonnes of N-based fertilizer products and 2.05 million tonnes of other non-nitrogen products. Yara’s product portfolio is well-balanced with NPKs accounting for 36% of sales volumes, nitrates 31% of sales volumes and urea 18% of sales volumes.Nitrates and NPK are more differentiated products than ammonia, urea and UAN. On average, nitrates and NPK command higher margins as they provide superior customer benefits. NPK can be tailored according to the needs of every climate, crop and soil making it the ideal fertilizer for demanding cash crops where the fertilizer quality makes a large difference.In addition, Yara provides fertilizers for all four types of application:1. Dry fertilization2. Fertigation (dissolvable fertilizer)3. Liquid fertilizer4. Foliar fertilization (absorption through leaves)

26


List of contents




The European industry

As Yara has approximately 50% of its fertilizer sales in Europe, this is a market of particular interest for Yara. However, the European market is still heavily influenced by the global supply-demand balance which is more important than regional issues.

27


European (EU 25) nitrogen fertilizer market

Nitrate the preferred fertilizer Yara the leading player

NPK19%

Urea18%

Nitrates (CAN/AN)

43%

Other20%

Yara20%

Other Europe58%

Imports22%

Source: EFMA 2003/2004 season

11.3 million tonnes of nitrogen

Nitrate is the preferred fertilizer in Europe with Yara being the leading supplier

Europe (EU25) consumes about 11.3 million tonnes of nitrogen, out of which 42% is in the form of nitrates (like CAN or AN). NPK fertilizers as a product category, occupies second place and urea, the third.Yara is the leading fertilizer company in Europe, with approximately 20% of the market. Yara is mainly active in West Europe, with a 24% market share. In West Europe the total market is 9.2 million tonnes.

28


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

kt n

itrog

en

Nitrate capacity and nitrate fertilizer consumption in West Europe

Source: EFMA

CapacityCapacity

ConsumptionConsumption

Improved market balance in West Europe due to closure of excess capacity

The restructuring of the West European (EU 15) nitrate industry in the late 1990s has resulted in a significant reduction in excess nitrate capacity. The decline in capacity is stronger than the decline in consumption, leading to additional need for imports.As there is only a small number of fertilizer companies with a long-term focus in the European market, several plants owned by non-fertilizer firms that are poorly maintained could be candidates for closure in the years to come.

29


Net nitrogen imports to West Europe

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

kt n

itrog

en

Source: EFMA

Imports play an important role in meeting the fertilizer demand in Europe

Imports to West Europe have shown an increasing trend over the last decade, as capacity closures in West Europe have exceeded the decline in consumption.During last season (2003/04), imports increased due to a rebound in demand. Demand increased due to low grain stocks following the small 2002/03 crop, and subsequently higher grain prices. As the West European industry was already running at high utilization rates, the added volumes had to be imported.The 2004/05 season (not shown in graph) consumption shows the opposite development, as grain prices are lower due to last year's record harvest. The introduction of the CAP reform is also contributing to somewhat lower demand. Imports will be less, whereas the domestic industry will continue to run at a high utilization rate and gain market share from imports.As the fertilizer market is global, exporters will rather sell their product elsewhere than to undercut prices in West Europe.

30


Yara – the European low cost leader

Ammonia cost position Nitrate cost position* NPK cost position

Source: EFMA

10291 90 93

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2001 2002 2003

87 8780

91

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2001 2002 2003

10090 89 85

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2001 2002 2003

Production cost index: 100 = European EFMA average excl. Yara

Index Index Index

Average cost Yara’s European plantsEuropean average (excl. Yara)

* Nitrate cost increase due to ammonia price increase, and Yara’s larger share of non-integrated plants

Yara benefits from a favorable cost position in its European home market for all its core products

Ammonia. Yara has established a stable cost position 5-10 percent below European competitors. The relative position is negatively influenced in 2003 by improvement in average other EFMA due to closure of least productive plants (IFI Cork). Yara had lower production in Sluiskil in 2003 due to turnaround and unscheduled stops. As Yara’s gas costs are heavily linked to LSFO, the relatively high LSFO prices in 2003 compared to other oil products, had a negative effect.Nitrates. Also nitrate costs were affected by the fire in Sluiskil in 2003. The ammonia price increase affected the relative position as Yara has a relatively high share of non-integrated nitrate plants. This effect was strengthened by the productivity increase in competitors’ non-integrated plants.NPK. Increasing ammonia prices in 2003 made the own production of ammonia in Porsgrunn more valuable, and improved the relative cost position compared to non-integrated NPK plants. Contribution also came from productivity improvements.

31


List of contents




Fertilizer industry dynamics

This section describes in more detail the competive forces and product flows of the main nitrogen products.

32


Nitrogen fertilizer industry fundamentals

Attractive cash flow through the cycle for

industry leaders

Buyer power: ModerateNational/regional distributors/ coop’sNeed security of supply

Suppliers power: LowRaw materials readily available

Entry barriers: ModerateBasic technology available, but:Capital intensiveEconomies of scale requiredLow cost energy only in some regionsTransportation costs

Substitutes: LowOrganic fertilizers only relevant where land or wealth surplus

Competition: Moderate to HighRegional fragmentation (consolidation in progress)Limited differentiationSeparate regional dynamics

Porter’s Five Forces Analysis

Industry leaders have attractive cash flows through the cycle

Basic technology for nitrogen fertilizer production is widely available and the industry is quite fragmented. This means that barriers to entry are low. However, to generate sufficient cash flows and remain profitable in the fertilizer business, the following are critical:• Access to cheaper sources of natural gas (stranded gas locations)• Proximity of production locations to ports for efficient logistics • Ability to ship, distribute and sell products to customers globally• Economies of scale in operations (production and distribution)Yara is the world’s biggest producer of fertilizer and has infrastructure points in 160 locations around the world. With sales to more than 120 countries, Yara also has a unique global distribution that is unmatched in the industry.

33


Potential industry concernsand associated mitigants

Over-investment at the top of the cycle

Weak players/lack of focus

Spread between gas prices in the US and Europe

International trade restrictions

Regulatory regimes

Terrorism, accidents, country, customer and currency risk

Weaknesses and risks

Industry participants more rational, private investments replacing state funds

Spin-offs from chemical/energy companies followed by consolidation

US gas prices could remain higher due to lack of pipeline capacity from Caribbean region and higher LNG costs

WTO accession

Operational excellence

Increased management awareness of risk management

Mitigating factors

Fertilizer industry is getting more consolidated and market-orientated

In the past, the fertilizer industry has been affected by state funds driving investments from a food security point of view rather than from a business point of view and by weak fertilizer companies that existed as part of government-owned enterprises or conglomerates. As the state involvement is going down and conglomerates are cleaning up their portfolio, there is a trend towards consolidation and more profit orientation across the whole industry.This development is strengthened by WTO and EU enlargement which secures more and more equal terms for all industry players.Since 1999 there has been a significant spread between US and European gas prices due to little new US gas supply. Due to the lack of pipeline capacity into the US and new supply from the US Gulf, the forward market expects this trend to continue. Although European gas prices are expected to increase, there are more gas and pipelines coming into Europe, leading the forward markets to believe that a gap will be sustained.

34


List of contents




Ammonia

Ammonia is the key intermediate product in the production of all nitrogen fertilizers. A strong ammonia position and understanding of the ammonia market is key for a leading nitrogen fertilizer company.

35


Ammonia production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Milli

on to

nnes

am

mon

ia

Source: IFA 2003

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Chi

na

Indi

a

Rus

sia

US

A

Indo

nesi

a

Ukr

aine

Can

ada

Trin

idad

Ger

man

y

Pak

ista

n

Milli

on to

nnes

am

mon

ia

Total production 10 largest producers

1994-2003 average annual growth rate = 1.2%

China is the largest ammonia producer

Ammonia is the key intermediate for all nitrogen fertilizer products and large nitrogen-consuming countries are also large producers of ammonia.Ammonia is predominantly upgraded to other nitrogen products at its production site. Only 13% of the ammonia produced globally is traded.In 2003, ammonia production reached 132.7 million tonnes, an increase of 1.3% compared to the previous year. The trend from 1994 to 2003 shows a growth rate of 1.2% per year.Of total nitrogen produced, 78% is used as fertilizer, and 22% as non-fertilizer (CRU estimate). Of all the ammonia produced, 17% is consumed for non-fertilizer use directly (Fertecon estimate).

36


Ammonia trade

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Milli

on to

nnes

am

mon

ia

Source: IFA 2003

Total world tradeTotal world trade

Yara’s tradeYara’s trade

Yara has close to one third of global ammonia trade

In 2003, world ammonia trade increased by 8% to reach 16.8 million tonnesThere are four main categories of customers for traded ammonia. Firstly, the main phosphate fertilizers DAP and MAP (also some NPK's ) consists of nitrogen as well, ammonia is often imported, as the regions with phosphate reserves lack nitrogen capacity. Secondly, some of the nitrate capacity is also based on purchased ammonia. Thirdly, there is a substantial industrial market for imported ammonia. The fourth category, direct application on the field, is only common in USA.It is important to note that urea capacity is always integrated with ammonia , as urea requires CO2 which conveniently is a by-product in the ammonia process.Yara’s leading position in ammonia trade gives it a good overview of the global supply / demand balance of ammonia and enables the company to make better business decisions.

37


Positions in global ammonia trade and shipping

264

106 8096102

050

100150200250300

Yara

Nitrochem

Tramm

o

PC

S

Mitsui

1000

mt

2.31.8 1.6 1.4 1.1

4.5

012345

Yar

a

Tram

mo

PC

S

Koc

h

Nitr

oche

m

Mits

ui

Mill

ion

mt

Trade (cfr sales)*

Shipping capacity

Tap strategic and higher value markets

Capture arbitrage opportunities through flexibility in transport and timing

506

332

151180191

0100200300400500600

Yar

a

Koc

h

Agr

ium

Pem

ex

Terra

1000

mt

Maritime storage capacity

* Total Yara deep sea trade 2004. When incl. cfr purchases, Yara has 5 million tonnes.Source: Fertecon. For shipping capacity: various brokers; For maritime storage: IFA

Yara is the clear global no. 1 not only in ammonia trade, but also in shipping capacity and storage.

This is important because it enables Yara to do trades and enter long-term agreements requiring access to an extensive global distribution network. Yara’s ammonia shipping needs are covered with a balanced combination of 15 ships split on fully-owned ships, JV-owned ships and long-term bare boat and time charters. Due to Yara’s size in the ammonia market, the limited number of suppliers of ammonia shipping capacity and the special nature of ammonia relative to other gas liquids, Yara is able to have a high capacity utilization and extract significant cost synergies.

38


Global ammonia trade

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Trin

idad

Rus

sia

Ukr

aine

Indo

nesi

a

Can

ada

Net

herla

nds

US

A

Alge

ria

Sau

di-A

rabi

a

Qat

ar

Milli

on to

nnes

am

mon

ia

Source: IFA 2003

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

USA

Indi

a

Kore

a

Fran

ce

Belg

ium

Turk

ey

Taiw

an

Spa

in

Mor

occo

Ger

man

y

Milli

on to

nnes

am

mon

ia

10 largest exporters 10 largest importers

Trinidad is the world’s largest ammonia exporter

The large ammonia exporters in the world have access to cheap natural gas, the key raw material for its production. Trinidad has large natural gas reserves and also lies in close proximity to the world’s largest importer of ammonia, the US. Trinidad has large stand-alone ammonia plants and excellent maritime facilities that cater to its export market. Yara owns two large ammonia production facilities in Trinidad. The countries in the Middle East also have some of the world’s largest reserves of natural gas. The Qafco fertilizer company in Qatar, also produces significant amounts (approximately 2 million tonnes) of ammonia, but Qafco owns the world’s largest ammonia-urea integrated fertilizer manufacturing sites (four plants in total) and hence, most of the ammonia produced in Qafco is upgraded into urea. Therefore, Qafco is a major exporter of urea and there is a relatively small surplus of ammonia left for exports. In USA, imported ammonia is used for both DAP/MAP production, for various industrial applications and directly as a nitrogen fertilizer.India uses its imported ammonia mostly to produce DAP.

39


Main ammonia flows

1.3

1.8 0.70.6

0.80.5

3.7

0.4

0.5 1.0

1.9

Source: IFA 2003

Million tonnes

79% of the ammonia trade happens on the specific routes shown in the map, mainly from countries with cheaper gas

The key centre for ammonia trade is Yuzhnyy in the Black Sea. This is the most liquid location, and where most spot trades take place. Russian and Ukrainian ammonia is sold wherever netbacks are the highest, and since they are key suppliers to USA, Europe and Mediterranean, relative pricing for the various locations West of Suez is very stable. Asia is almost in a balanced situation. If there is a deficit, imports from the Black Sea are necessary, and fob prices in Asia increase. If there is a surplus, Asian exporters have to compete West of Suez, and Asian fob price levels suffer.

40


List of contents




Urea

Urea is the largest finished nitrogen fertilizer product and is traded globally. Even though many markets prefer other nitrogen fertilizers for better agronomic properties, urea is the commodity reference product with an important influence on most other nitrogen fertilizer prices.

41


Urea production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Milli

on to

nnes

ure

a

1994-2003 annual average growth rate = 3.5%

Source: IFA 2003

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Chi

na

Indi

a

US

A

Indo

nesi

a

Rus

sia

Pak

ista

n

Can

ada

Ukr

aine

Sau

di-A

rabi

a

Ban

glad

esh

Milli

on to

nnes

ure

a

Total production 10 largest producers

Urea is the main nitrogen fertilizer product. Approximately 50% of all ammonia is upgraded into urea

Urea production is estimated at 115.3 million tonnes in 2003. During the years 1994-2003, urea production grew at 3.5% per year. The largest producers are also the largest consumers, namely China and India. Both countries are basically self-sufficient on nitrogen fertilizer.Most of the new nitrogen capacity in the world is urea, so it is natural that the production/consumption growth rates are higher for urea than for ammonia/total nitrogen. Lately, the difference has been quite large, since urea has taken market share, particularly from ammonium bicarbonate in China. In addition, a major share of the capacity shutdowns in high energy cost regions have been stand-alone ammonia plants.As urea has a high nitrogen content (46%), transport is relatively cheap. In addition, demand growth is to a large extent taking place in climates where urea is suitable.90% of all urea is consumed as fertilizer, whereas the remaining 10% is used for technical applications (CRU estimate).

42


Urea trade

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Milli

on to

nnes

ure

a

Source: IFA 2003

Urea is a global fertilizer and is more traded than ammonia

Urea trade increased by 10% in 2003 to 28.3 million tonnes, which is 25% of all urea produced. Trade has increased, as regions without a lot of urea capacity, like Latin America and South-East Asia, have increased demand.

43


Urea trade

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Rus

sia

Ukr

aine

Chi

na

Sau

di-A

rabi

a

Qat

ar

Can

ada

Indo

nesi

a

Egyp

t

Rom

ania

US

A

Milli

on to

nnes

ure

a

Source: IFA 2003

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

USA

Braz

il

Viet

nam

Thai

land

Mex

ico

Aust

ralia

Italy

Phili

ppin

es

Kore

a

Turk

ey

Milli

on to

nnes

ure

a

10 largest exporters 10 largest importers

Natural gas-rich regions generally tend to be big exporters of urea

The main urea exporters are gas rich countries/regions with small domestic markets. There are some exceptions though.China has a huge domestic capacity. Although the main purpose is to supply the domestic market, smaller deviations in the domestic balance creates large waves in the global market when the domestic surplus is exported and deficit is made up by imports.Other key exporters, that also have a substantial domestic market, tend to reduce their export over time. Indonesia is a good example.North America, Latin America and South-East Asia are the main importing regions

44


Main urea flows

1.3

3.30.9

0.60.9

0.5

4.4

2.2 0.9 1.01.4

1.8

2.2

Source: IFA 2003

Million tonnes

Trade pattern shown (22 million tonnes) represents 76% of globaltrade

There are two main hubs to follow in the urea trade market, Black Sea and Arab Gulf. These flows determine the global prices. Black Sea supplies Europe and Latin America, while Arab Gulf supplies North America and Asia/Oceania. All the other flows, of more regional nature, like Venezuela to USA, Indonesia to other Asian countries etc, are only interesting to the extent they affect the need for Black Sea/Arab Gulf material. As an example, if China reduces its export, the Arab Gulf is not able to supply Asia on its own. Black Sea urea will flow to Asia, and an upward price movement will take place. The relative pricing between Black Sea and Arab Gulf depends on where they compete on the marginal volume. If the main drive is from Latin America/Europe/Africa, Black Sea will lead. If it is Asia/North America, Arab Gulf will lead. It is wise to follow price quotations for both locations.

45


10 largest urea producers

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Sin

opec

IFFC

O

Agriu

m

NFC

Kalti

m

Yar

a

Qaf

co CF

Pus

ri

RC

F

Milli

on to

ns u

rea

Source: CRU(2004) capacitiesJV ownership included for Agrium, Yara and CF

The largest urea producers in the world are found in China and India

Both China and India are large producers and consumers of urea as this fertilizer is considered highly suitable to its agricultural conditions. Both countries are basically self-sufficient on nitrogen fertilizer, with China exporting approximately 4 million tonnes of urea in 2004.

46


List of contents




Industry value drivers

This section describes how the economic mechanisms of the fertilizer industry work and what determines fertilizer prices and company profits.

47


Floor price for urea

Urea demand

Urea supply

Urea price (above floor)

Most other nitrogenfertilizer prices

Value-added margins

Nitrogen fertilizer revenue drivers

US gas price

Grain inventories/prices

New urea capacityvs. closures

Global urea demand vs. supply

Urea price

Market segmentation

Drivers Effect on

Main revenue drivers are the raw material costs for swing producers and grain inventories/prices

Since 1999 the US gas price has established a floor price for the ammonia price due to US producers going in and out of the market. In general, when energy prices are relatively high and/or demand relatively low, there tends to be a ”supply economy”where there is a price floor established that indirectly determine fertilizer prices.On the other hand, when fertilizer demand is high and/or energy prices are low, there is typically a ”demand economy” driving fertilizer prices well above the minimum prices determined by energy costs. During such times, fertilizer prices can be very high as the customer benefits from fertilizer generally are much higher than production costs.What finally determines the urea price, which again drives other nitrogen fertilizer prices, is the fertilizer market balance where capacity utilization is the key factor.Both Yara’s Downstream and Industrial segments offer (differentiated) products and services to different market segments. These segments are largely unaffected by energy prices and fertilizer prices and have margins driven by the ability to offer a superior product to targeted customer segments.

48


Nitrogen fertilizer cost drivers

Drivers Effect on

Gas cost in Europe

Fixed cost

Unit cost

Oil product prices

Manning

Economies of scale

Location and economies of scale greatly influence cost drivers

Yara’s gas consumption in fully-owned plants is approximately 145 million MMBtu. With an average gas cost in fully-owned facilities around USD 4 per MMBtu, this means Yara’s annual gas cost was close to NOK 4 billion at a NOK/USD rate of 6.90 in 2004.Other raw materials than gas/oil products are mainly P and K in addition to finished fertilizers for resale. Potential price changes for P and K going into NPK production are over time passed on to customers through changed NPK prices.Manning has a direct impact on fixed costs. For a company like Yara, continued focus on decreasing fixed costs and at the same time improving operational effectiveness to increase productivity is important to maintain competitiveness.

49


Key value drivers – 10-year history

NOK/USD exchange rate

6.3 6.57.1 7.5 7.8

8.8 9.08.0

7.1 6.7

0123456789

10

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Ammonia fob Caribbien (USD/t)

197 185160

11791

148 137110

203

251

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Urea prilled fob Black Sea (USD/t)187 181

117

8467

101 96 94

139

175

020406080

100120140160180200

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

CAN cif Germany (USD/t)

167 163

124110

86103

119 111

146165

020406080

100120140160180

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

US gas price Henry Hub (USD/MMBtu)

1.7

2.8 2.52.1 2.3

4.3 4.03.3

5.55.9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Oil Brent blend spot (USD/bbl)

17.020.7 19.1

12.617.8

28.424.4 24.8

28.4

38.2

05

1015202530354045

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Average prices 1995 - 2004

49

Source: International publications, CERA, Hydro, World Bank, Norges Bank

Fertilizer cyclicality is similar to oil

Fertilizer prices are cyclical just like any other commodity. The cyclicality is primarily caused by the lumpiness in supply additions resulting in periods of overcapacity and undercapacity.Comparing the 10 year price history of nitrogen fertilizer products in the top row with oil in the bottom row, one can see that the cyclicality is similar and to some extent correlated. This is not surprising as the main cost involved in producing ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer is feedstock in the form of oil and gas.

50


List of contents




Drivers of demand

The main driver of demand for fertilizer is people’s demand for food which translates into demand for grain and other farm products.

51


Drivers for increased nitrogen consumption

Fertilizer consumptionPopulation growthEconomic growth

– More meat consumption in developing countries– Focus on diets rich in proteins– More fruit and vegetables– Reduce hunger

Biofuels

Industrial consumptionEconomic growthEnvironmental limits (e.g. reduction of NOx emissions)

Nitrogen growth is expected to be higher than global population growth

Population growth and economic growth are the main drivers for increased fertilizer consumption. Industrial consumption of nitrogen is mainly driven by economic growth and environmental legislation.

52


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010E 2020E

Hec

tare

s/pe

rson

0

2

4

6

8

10

Population (billion)

Hectares/person Population

Increasing population and reduced land available for food production per capita

Source: IFA, Worldmarkets.com

Almost no increase in farmable land is possible

Increased standard of living leads to growing protein consumption per person, requiring more grain for animal feed

The only solution is to increase agricultural

productivity

Per capita arable land available for cultivation is decreasing, while demand for food keeps growing

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) confirms that a key challenge for agriculture is to increase the productivity. Key ways of doing this is replacing nutrients removed with the harvest, improving resource management, breeding new crop varieties and by expanding agricultural knowledge.

53


World cereal production– Land saved through improved technology

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Milli

on h

ecta

res

Land used

Land spared

Source: FAO

Cereal production:1961: 877 million tonnes2004: 2,252 million tonnes

Since 1960, the use of land for cereal production has been quite stable, while total grain production has increased by 150%

The increase is due to improved technologies, such as better farm practices, superior seeds, use of pesticides, and increased use of fertilizers.The roughly 1 billion hectares land “saved” through the improved yield would not have been available for food production, and global starvation would have been the consequence.

54


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010E 2020E

Tonn

es o

f cer

eals

per

hec

tare

Source: FAO, Worldmarkets.com, Yara

1 tonne of grain requires ~25kg nitrogen

Mineral fertilizer

Organic fertilizers

Existing soil nutrients

Mineral fertilizer essentialto sustain future yield increases

• Increased production of mineral fertilizers necessary to meet future nutrient demand

• Limited potential of recycling organic material

• Nutrient reserves in the soildo not increase

Mineral fertilizer essential to sustain future yield increases

In the quest to maintain increases in agricultural productivity, mineral fertilizer has a key role. While the nutrient reserves in the soil do not increase and recycling of organic material is not sufficient for additional growth, increased production of mineral fertilizer is what really can make a difference. Since 1960 the expanded use of mineral fertilizer is the major reason why global cereal yields have increased, and this trend is expected to continue.

55


To increase productivity is onlypossible with full nutrient replacement

No nutrient replacement

Nutrient replacement with

fertilizers

Production without plant nutrition is mining the soil

Photo: Dr. Paul Seward, maize in Kenya

Fertilizer increases yield by 3-4 times

Fertilizers increase yield substantially and enable food production without depleting valuable soil nutrients

Trials conducted without replacing nutrients show that the productivity of the land is dramatically reduced. This not only leads to low farmer income and food shortages, but also contributes to erosion and destruction of agricultural land.

Effects of soil mining are• reduced soil fertility• poor yield• soil compaction• reduced humus content• increased erosion

56


1,7001,7501,8001,8501,9001,9502,0002,0502,100

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005E

Consumption

Production

Source: FAO, April 2005

Global grain balance

56

Million tonnes

Grain production exceeded grain consumption in 2004 for the first time since 1999

FAO’s estimates global grain production to go down in 2005-2006 after the record crop in 2004. If consumption increases or stays flat, this will lead to a reduction in global grain inventories in 2006 which normally supports a healthy demand for fertilizers.

57


Grain inventory relative to maize (corn) price

300

400

500

600

700

800

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E

Mill

ion

tonn

es

0

1

2

3

4

USD

/bu

Grain inventory

Maize (corn) price

Source: FAO, Blue-Johnson

Grain inventories are linked to prices and influence fertilizer demand

There is a logical correlation between grain stocks and prices as prices go up when stocks go down.

58


90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Inde

x (1

990=

100)

Total calorie consumption

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Inde

x (1

990=

100)

Total

Source: FAO

No change in diet

All products Animal products

Total

No change in diet

The increase in total calorie consumption is driven by both population growth and by change in diet

Total calorie consumption in 2002 was 22% higher than in 1990 ( 1.7% yearly growth ), of which 80% explained by population growth.Calorie consumption from animal products in 2002 was 33% higher than in 1990 ( 2.4% yearly growth ), of which only 56% explained by population. Diet change is nearly as important a driver for demand growth for animal products as population growth.

59


Calorie consumption per capita per day

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Cal

orie

s

Developing countries

Developed countries

Source: FAO

Higher calorie consumption has positive effects on fertilizer demand

Improved standard of living following economic growth increases demand for food and fertilizer, mainly in the "developing countries“.The category "developed countries" covers 1.3 billion people, while the remaining 5 billion people are in the category "developing countries". Consequently, changes in eating habits in the "developing countries" have substantially larger effects then for the "developed countries“.

60


90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Inde

x (1

990=

100)

Animal products consumption per capita per day

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Inde

x (1

990=

100)

Source: FAO

Developed countries Developing countries

Change in diet in developing countries increases demand for fertilizer in these regions beyond what could be expected from population growth

The diet in the developed countries has not changed significantly since 1990.In the developing countries, the calorie intake has increased, with the contribution coming from more meat being included in the diet. This means that the per capita consumption of animal food increased particularly strongly. Per capita consumption of meat has increased by 40% since 1990. As the growth rate for animal products has been higher than for the total per capita consumption, there has been a shift from vegetarian products to meat products as well.As a consequence, grain production now has to meet the growing demand for feed in those countries. Since the availability of new arable land is limited, higher grain production has to come from higher productivity (yield per unit area). To achieve higher productivity, increased use of fertilizers will be necessary.

61


Meat consumption per capita per day

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

E

2005

F

kg/c

ap/y

ear

Pig

Total

Source: FAO

PoultryBovine

Other

Global per capita consumption of meat is increasing

Pig meat and poultry is gaining popularity on a global basis. Meat consumption requires feed. To produce 1 tonne of poultry meat, feed corresponding to 2 tonnes of grain is needed. The multipliers are 4 for pig meat and 7 for bovine meat (beef). FAO estimates that meat consumption is increasing by 3% (1.2kg/person) this year, equally split on poultry, pig and bovine.The added nitrogen needed to support this change in diet is in the range of 400-800kt nitrogen, depending on the recycling efficiency of the manure, roughly corresponding to one new world scale nitrogen plant. It represents 0.5-1.0% consumption growth for nitrogen, or 1-2% for urea, if assuming only urea is used.Nitrogen required for meat production is in the range of 20-30% of total nitrogen fertilizer consumption

62


China’s grain balance

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

F

Mill

ion

tonn

e s

Stocks

Source: FAO

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

FMill

ion

tonn

es

Net import

China’s grain stocks show a declining trend

China has been drawing on their grain stocks since 2000. At the same time, China has been a net exporter of grain, so the decline in stocks has probably been welcome. The stock level is now so low that this is not likely to continue. FAO expects China to be a net grain importer in 2005.

63


China’s production and consumption of grain and soybeans

Grain

Source: USDA

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

90/9

1

91/9

2

92/9

3

93/9

4

94/9

5

95/9

6

96/9

7

97/9

8

98/9

9

99/0

0

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4E

04/0

5F

Mill

ion

tonn

es

Soybeans

Consumption

Production

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

90/9

1

91/9

2

92/9

3

93/9

4

94/9

5

95/9

6

96/9

7

97/9

8

98/9

9

99/0

0

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4E

04/0

5F

Mill

ion

tonn

es

Consumption

Production

Soybean consumption in China shows a dramatic increase, while production has remained steady

Grain consumption in China has grown only modestly over the last decade, while production has decreased. Behind the numbers are an increase in maize (for animal feed), while rice and wheat consumption have lost popularity. Grain production rebounded last year.In addition to increased maize consumption, consumption of soybeans has increased dramatically, driven by demand for animal feed.Soybean production has been relatively stable during the last years. China has chosen to import their requirement instead.

64


China – Fruits and Vegetables (area harvested)

0

5

10

15

20

2519

91

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

million ha

Source: FAO

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Watermelons

Cabbages

Cucumbers

Tomatoes

Asparagus

Eggplant

Onions

Spinach

Garlic

Chillies&Pepper

Lettuce

Carrots

000 ha

19912004

Vegetables

Fruits

Cultivation of high-value cash crops has increased dramatically in China during the past decade

China has previously not given priority to increasing the production of grain or oilseeds, although there is definitely increased attention to the grain/oilseed situation at the moment.However, China has chosen to use more and more land for higher value crops. Given limitations of land and abundance of labor, this is of great economic value to China, and a logical development. It also means increased demand for fertilizer, and creates a strong market for higher value fertilizer products like NPK in which Yara is the global leader.

65


Maize use and US ethanol production

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Food Industrial Feed

Mill

ion

tonn

es

Source: IGC, CBOT

Global use of maize 2003/04

Biofuels are emerging as the next new thing in farming

The use of agricultural produce to obtain biofuels is showing an increasing trend. The International Grain Council (IGC) estimates that industrial use of coarse grains (mainly maize) reached 128 million tons in 2004/05, 13% of total coarse grain consumption.Growth has been particularly strong in Brazil and USA. In the US, FAO estimates that 17% of total maize production is used for ethanol production. Assuming average nitrogen application, this amounts to 0.75 million tonnes of nitrogen, or almost 1% of global nitrogen fertilizer consumption.In Brazil, sugarcane is used for ethanol production, and around 50% of the crop is used for this purpose.

66


List of contents




Drivers of supply

The main driver of supply is the cost of natural gas which is the main raw material in the production of nitrogen fertilizer.

67


Nitrogen value chain

Raw material

• Natural gas

Intermediateproduct

• Ammonia• Nitric acid

Finishedproducts

• Fertilizer• Industrial

products

Natural gas major nitrogen cost driver

At current gas prices in the US, natural gas constitutes about 85% of ammonia production costs in the US. Ammonia is an intermediate product for all nitrogen fertilizer, while nitric acid is a second intermediate product for the production of, e.g., nitrates. Finished fertilizer products are urea, nitrates (CAN, AN), NPK and others. Industrial products range from high purity carbon dioxide, basic nitrogen chemicals to industrial applications of upgraded fertilizer products.

68


US – Henry HubUS – Henry Hub

TrinidadTrinidad5.95.9

UkraineUkraine

Middle EastMiddle East

1.61.6

1.61.6

NetherlandsNetherlands4.44.4

RussiaRussia0.90.9

0.5-1.00.5-1.0

AlaskaAlaska

IndonesiaIndonesia

1.71.7

1.51.5

World gas pricesUSD/MMbtu, 2004 estimate

Source: Fertecon, CERA, Platts

New ammonia capacity will be focused in areas with cheap gas

Favorable locations for new ammonia capacity are pockets of stranded gas mostly located around the equator.

69


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

3 4 5 6 7 8USD / MMBtu

US

D /

tonn

e Gas costs Other 2004 ammonia price*

Cost structure for ammonia

* Ammonia price: fob US Gulf barge, Cost structure: Production cash cost fob US Gulf barge Source: Blue Johnson & Associates.

Natural gas cost creates ammonia “price floor”

Due to the upward shift in natural gas prices in the USA in recent years, domestic producers have become the swing producers of ammonia. Therefore, the US gas price is one of the key factors determining ammonia prices as long as prices are supply-driven rather than demand-driven.

70


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

3 4 5 6 7 8USD / MMBtu

US

D /

tonn

eAmmonia cost Process gas costs

Other cash production cost 2004 Urea price*

Cost structure for urea

* Urea price: US Gulf granular fob. Cost structure: Production cash cost fob US Gulf barge

Source: Blue Johnson & Associates.

Ammonia cost creates urea ”price floor”

Ammonia prices also create a floor for the urea prices in a supply-driven market balance. Urea prices normally never go below this floor as a sufficiently large number of producers would then rather sell the ammonia at ammonia market prices.

71


Ammonia prices when US Gulf is swing producer

Example assumptions:US gas price: 7.0/MMBtu US cash cost: 36 * 7.0 + 28 = 280/metric tonneUS terminal cost for import: 12/metric tonnecfr US Gulf: 268/metric tonne

268268

238238

Freight: 30Freight: 30

218218Freight: 50Freight: 50

258258Fr.+duty: 40Fr.+duty: 40

The marginal producers determine global ammonia price floor

In a supply-driven pricing environment, the region with the marginal producers determines the global ammonia prices. During the last four years the marginal or “swing” producers have been the producers in the US Gulf. Freight and duty costs between net import and export regions then determine prices in other geographies.

72


Urea prices when US Gulf is swing producer

Example assumptions:US gas price: 7.0/mmbtu US cash cost: 26 * 7.0 + 35 = 217/mtUS terminal cost for import: 2/mtcfr US Gulf: 215/mt

215215170170

Freight: 45Freight: 45

150150

Diff: ~20Diff: ~20

180180Freight: 30Freight: 30

Ammonia creates the price floor for urea

As there are anti-dumping duties on Russian and Ukrainian urea in the US, the main source of offshore imports is the Arab Gulf. The freight rate used is higher than the historic average, given today's tight freight market. Black Sea is normally priced lower than Arab Gulf, as they compete in Asia, where Black Sea has a freight disadvantage. Russia is the largest exporter to the European market.Instead of regarding US producers as swing producers on urea, it is more appropriate to regard the ammonia price plus the upgrading cash costs to urea as the urea floor price. Nevertheless, the result is about the same.Note that changing freight costs can change the geographical differences considerably over time.

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Ammonia production inselected high energy cost regions

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

kt a

mm

onia

Source: CRU

West Europe, USA, Mexico, Japan and Korea

Major decline in ammonia production since 1997 in many countries

The higher price level of natural gas, particularly in North America, but also in regions where the gas price is mainly oil-linked, has led to shutdown of nitrogen capacity.In 2003, the countries included in the graph produced 10 million tonnes ammonia less than in 1997. 10 million tonnes represented 7.5% of global production in 2003.The highest cost producers are often referred to as swing producers. This is true, but it does not mean that when a plant is closed, it can be restarted at any time. Almost none of the closed plants have been restarted. So when demand outpaces new capacity, price effects tend to be felt fairly quickly.

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Average urea consumption growth has been 3.7% since 1990,corresponding to a nitrogen growth of approximately 2%

Expected urea capacity growth estimates

Source: Fertecon, update April 2005

Egypt: 31%China: 31%

3.1% (3.5%)2007

Oman: 29%China: 23%

China: 53%Iran: 20%

China: 51%Oman: 21%

China: 61%Qatar: 17%

Driving regionsGlobal urea capacity

growth estimate*

2.0% (new)2008

5.4% (4.4%)2006

2.8% (3.4%)2005

2.3% (3.1%)2004

* Excluding possible closures. Previous estimate presented at Yara Capital Markets Day in brackets (…)

Expected urea capacity growth roughly in line with historical consumption growth

Global urea production capacity in 2003 was approximately 135 million tonnes. In the period 2004 to 2008 the expected addition of new urea capacity varies between 2.0 and 5.4% according to Fertecon. With the exception of China, all new capacity is expected in the Middle East or in other areas with low-cost gas.The expected production growth (ignoring possible closures) seems to match reasonably well with the expected annual consumption growth of 2.5-3.5% with the exception of 2006.Note that in 2006, 53% of the capacity additions are in China. If you believe that the Chinese need the urea themselves (no new export), the 2006 supply additions may be not so important for the global supply-demand balance.

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Global nitrogen capacity utilization

Urea capacity utilization

70%72%74%76%78%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004E 2005E 2006E

CRU (British Sulphur)

Fertecon

Source: CRU (British Sulphur), Fertecon

Industry analysts expect no major changes in capacity utilization next few years

The reasonable match between expected consumption and productiongrowth of urea is also reflected in the estimates for capacity utilization going forward by CRU and Fertecon.The estimates indicate a fairly flat development, but with a slight deterioration in the case of CRU.

76


List of contents




Price relations

Based on the demand and supply drivers this section explores how prices in the end are determined.

77


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Natural gas prices – USA and Europe

USD/MMBtu

Source: World Bank, Platts (average import price into EU from World Bank used up to 1999 )

US gas price (Henry Hub)

European gas price (Zeebrugge Hub)

Yearly average gas prices

Natural gas prices in the USA influence the “floor prices” of nitrogen fertilizer

The high gas price differential between US and Europe from 2003 continues in 2004. This supports good margins for Yara as Yara has costs partly linked to the lower line and (floor) prices resulting from the upper line.

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Ammonia price and US production cost

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

US

D/to

nne

Source: Blue-Johnson

US Gulf cash cost

Ammonia fob US Gulf

High US gas prices set ammonia price floor at attractive level

Over the last six years, US natural gas prices have been the most important factor establishing the prices of ammonia. Since mid-2003 strong demand has raised ammonia prices above the floor, but margins above US cash costs have not reached the same level as in 1995-1996.

79


Urea price compared toproduction cost in US Gulf – quarterly averages

0

50

100

150

200

250

3001Q

02

2Q 02

3Q 02

4Q 02

1Q 03

2Q 03

3Q 03

4Q 03

1Q 04

2Q 04

3Q 04

4Q 04

1Q 05

2Q 05

3Q 05

4Q 05

1Q 06

2Q 06

3Q 06

4Q 06

USD

/tonn

e

Urea fob US Gulf (granular)

Cash costUS Gulf*

Source: Average of international publications (urea), World Bank (Henry Hub gas price), Blue-Johnson* Future cash costs based on Henry Hub forward price for gas as of 29 April

79

Urea market has been demand-driven since mid 2003

The urea floor price mechanism is also valid for ammonia. For the first time since 1997 the urea market became demand-driven in mid 2003. The long supply-driven period is one reason why little new urea capacity was built in the early years of this decade.Even if the demand-supply balance should deteriorate, the high forward price for US natural gas and corresponding consequences for US cash costs indicate that urea prices could stay at a high level throughout 2006.

80


Potential nitrogen swing capacity in USA

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Milli

on to

nnes

am

mon

ia

Source: IFA

US totalammonia capacity

US non-captiveammonia capacity

USA is the swing producer for nitrogen at higher natural gas prices

The remaining nitrogen swing capacity in the US is substantial despite several closures in recent years. Total global ammonia capacity is approximately 160 million tonnes, with the US constituting roughly 9% of the total (14.8 million tonnes).In addition to direct application. ammonia is mostly used to produce urea and UAN in the US:- For urea, the total US capacity in 2004 was 7.3 million tonnes.- UAN is a large product in USA with 10-11 million tonnes of capacity, excluding PCS Geismar.

81


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 20040

50

100

150

200

250

300 USD/bushel corn USD/tonne urea

Fertilizer and grain prices

Source: Blue-Johnson

Urea fob Arab Gulf Corn Chicago cash

Correlation between long-term grain and fertilizer prices

Variations in grain price (corn or wheat) explain approximately 50% of the variations in the urea price, making grain prices one of the most important factors driving fertilizer prices. Some of the correlation may of course be spurious, like GDP growth, Chinese imports, strength of the USD etc.In 2004, fertilizer prices increased more than most grain prices. The demand development for fertilizer has recently been more linked to the grain inventories, particularly in the main consuming regions like China and India.

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0

50

100

150

200

250

jan-

95

jan-

96

jan-

97

jan-

98

jan-

99

jan-

00

jan-

01

jan-

02

jan-

03

jan-

04

jan-

05

US

D/to

nne

Ammonia and urea price

Source: Average of international publications

0.6 * Amm + 15

Urea (fob Black Sea)

There is an upgrading margin for converting ammonia into urea

While energy costs for the ammonia swing producers sets a price floor for ammonia, the ammonia price sets a floor for the urea price. If the urea price drops below this floor, more ammonia will be offered for sale, less urea will be sold, and the relationship will be restored.In a tight supply/demand scenario for nitrogen, the correlation is less, as urea plants run flat out. The supply/demand balance for excess ammonia (industrial, DAP/NPK and nitrates mainly) will determine the ammonia price, as it did during the mid 1990s.

83


Nitrate price in Europe and global urea price

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800Ja

n-95

Jan-

96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

02

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

US

D p

er to

nne

nitro

gen


Urea fob Middle East

CAN cfr Germany

Urea prices determine the price range for nitrates

There is a strong correlation between urea and nitrate prices, as they to some extent are substitutes. For agronomic reasons, farmers are willing to pay a higher price per unit nitrogen from nitrates than from urea. The correlation is stronger in the medium to long term than within a season. The nitrate margin above urea is to some extent also influenced by the market balance in the nitrate industry.

84


10-year grain/oilseed prices – yearly averages

Wheat (HRW US Gulf)

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

USD/tonneRice (Thailand)

150

200

250

300

350

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

USD/tonne

Maize (US Gulf)

507090

110130150170190

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

USD/tonne

Source: World Bank

Soybeans (cif Rotterdam)

100

150

200

250

300

350

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

USD/tonne

84


Low grain inventories keep prices at or above 10-year historical average levels

World stock remain at the second-lowest level in 30 years. USDA estimates show that despite record harvests in 2004, the world grain stocks will last only for 2.3 months. Note that all grain prices actually increased from 2003 to 2004.The decline in grain prices in 2004 may be attributed to favorable weather conditions for crops this year leading to record grain crop yield. Production (2043 million tonnes) is expected to meet slightly increased demand this year (FAO Forecast, December 2004) and no depletion of stocks is foreseen for this year.

85


10-year fertilizer prices – monthly averages


85

Ammonia fob Caribbean

050

100150

200250

300

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

USD/tonne

CAN cif Germany

0

50

100

150

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

USD/tonne

Urea prilled fob Black Sea

050

100150200250300

1995 1997 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

USD/tonne


Fertilizer prices above historical averages

Spring 2005 nitrogen fertilizer prices are high within a 10-year perspective. However, input costs are also high due to record oil and gas prices. Therefore, current margins do not match the levels seen in 1995-1996.

86


List of contents




Production economics

This section describes the cash costs associated with production of standard nitrogen products which is useful to know in supply-driven situations with pricing determined by the marginal (swing) producers.

87


Ammonia (NH3) (82% N)

Ammonia cash cost build-up – example

Gas price: 7 USD/MMBtu

x Gas consumption: 36 MMBtu/mt NH3

= Gas cost: 252 USD/mt NH3

+ Other prod. cost: 26 USD/mt NH3

= Total cash cost 278 USD/mt NH3


Typical natural gas consumption for

ammonia production

36 MMBtu natural gas/tonne ammonia

Natural gas costs the most important cost component

With a natural gas price of USD 7/MMBtu gas cost represents around 90% of the ammonia production cash costs. In this example, one dollar increase in gas cost gives USD 36 higher gas costs.Most of the “other production costs” are fixed costs and therefore subject to scale advantages.

mt = metric tonne

All cost estimates are fob plant cash costs excluding load-out, depreciation, corporate overhead and debt service for a US proxy plant located in Louisiana (≈ 1,300 metric tonnes per day capacity). In this example load-out barge is excluded.

88


Ammonia (NH3) (82% N)

Urea (46% N)

Urea cash cost build up – example

36 MMBtu natural gas/tonne ammoniaAmmonia price: 278 USD/mt NH3

x Ammonia use: 0.58 NH3/mt urea

= Ammonia cost 161 USD/mt urea

+ Process gas cost* 36 USD/mt urea

+ Other prod. cost**: 22 USD/mt urea

= Total cash cost 219 USD/mt urea


0.58 mt ammonia per tonne urea

CO

2

** Including load-out* Process gas cost is linked to natural gas price

Ammonia the main input in urea

Typically, it takes 0.58 tonne ammonia for each tonne urea. If we add the gas cost in ammonia (USD 146) and the additional process gas costs needed for the production of urea (5.2 MMBtu x USD 7/MMBtu = USD 36), natural gas represents around 83% of the total production cash cost.

All cost estimates are fob plant cash costs excluding depreciation, corporate overhead and debt service for a US proxy plant located in Louisiana (≈1400 mt per day capacity).

89


* There are several NPK formulas. 15-15-15 is just an example

Theoretical consumption factors

Ammonia(82% N)

Urea(46% N)

AN(33.5% N)

CAN(27% N)

NPK(15-15-15)*

P and K

Consumption factors to compare price movements

As shown in the costing example for urea, the real ammonia consumption factor is above the theoretical consumption factor, which is based on N content. The difference varies between plants according to their energy efficiency. Using the theoretical consumption factors is easier when making calculations. If the N content for a product is known (46% N in urea), the ammonia consumption factor can easily be calculated by dividing the figure with the N content in ammonia (0.46/0.82 = 0.56).Based on this illustration, it is possible to follow relative variation in the various nitrogen prices. As an example, if ammonia becomes USD10/mt more expensive, the production cost of urea increases by 10 * 0.56 (0.46/0.82) = 5.6USD/mt. Similarly, if the urea price increases by USD10/mt, a price increase of 10 * (0.27/0.46) = USD5.9/mt of CAN would keep the relative pricing at the same level.

90


Useful sources of market information

News, price references and short term developments (1-2 months)The Market www.decyfer.comProfercy http://lists.altohiway.com (subscription needed)Fertilizer Week www.britishsulphur.comFertecon www.fertecon.comFMB www.fmb-group.co.ukGreen Markets (USA) http://greenmarkets.pf.comBeijing Orient Business (China) www.boabc.com

Medium term (1 year) supply/demand and price analysisOutlook, from The Market. Monthly publications for ammonia, urea and DAPProfercy medium term forecast

Longer termFerteconBritish sulphur (CRU)

Grain supply/demand and priceFood and Agriculture Organization of the UN www.fao.orgInternational Grain Council www.igc.org.ukChicago Board of Trade www.cbot.com

Fertilizer industry associationsInternational Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) www.fertilizer.orgEuropean Fertilizers Manufacturers Association (EFMA) www.efma.org

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