Fertilizer and nutrient

trends in AustraliaRob Norton,

ANZ Regional Director, IPNI

Prediction is very difficult,

especially about the future.

Neils Bohr

La Trobe University, July 25, 2011

Better Crops, Better Environment … through Science

IPNI is supported by leading fertilizer manufacturers and industry associations

Nutrients … a matter of balance

Removal Replacement

Norman Borlaug – Nobel Peace Prize

How much crop yield is attributable to

fertilization?

• Based on long-term studies that integrate the effects of year, climate, pest and disease stress, etc. …

• 40 to 60% of crop yield in the US is due to commercial fertilizer.

• P is second only to N in relative importance as a fertilizer nutrient.

World cereal production and fertilizer consumption, million metric tons

0

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40

60

80

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120

140

160

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0

500

1,000

1,500

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2,500

3,000

NP

K C

onsum

piton,

Mt

To

tal C

ere

al P

rod

uctio

n,

Mt

Cereals Fertilizer

Source: FAO and IFA

World Fertilizer Consumption Forecast(Mt nutrients)

2009 2010 (f) 2014 (f)2009/14 variation

N 101.8 103.9 111.7 2.0%

P2O5 36.0 38.6 43.7 4.5%

K2O 22.1 26.6 31.9 8.2%

Total 159.8 169.0 187.3 3.5%

Source: IFA

Australia ~0.8% world N consumption

~2.4% world P consumption

“…food production has to increase 50% by 2013 and double in 30 years…”(Source: Global Challenges for Humanity, 2008 State of the Future, Millennium Project)

• Static world land area

• Land for nature

• Energy & Resource availability

• Short term disasters becoming protracted crisis

• Climate change

Real Issues - Eutrophication

• Great Barrier Reef

• Peel Estuary

• Swan River

• Gippsland Lakes

• Murray Darling

• 85% of Waterways at risk.

Real Issues – Greenhouse gases• Nitrous oxide (298*GWP of CO2)

• Re-deposition of volatilized ammonia

– Ammonia effects on ecosystems

– Nitrous oxide as a GHG

– Nitrate as a water pollutant

NH4 NO2 NO3Nitrosomonas Nitrobacter+ --

N2O production

NH3 + H+

Real Issues – Food Safety

Cadmium

Fluorine

Real Issues – Industry Credibility

“New” and “Improved” products

Little evidence to support product

claims

No intervention in the market about

spurious reports.

Nutrient Imbalances – a big part of the challenge in an open system

Vitousek et al., 2009, Science

NuGIS overarching objectives

Released August 2010

• Grew from Agristats & Soil Testing Summaries from North America

• Assess nutrient balance and nutrient use efficiency in crop production

• Identify weaknesses in the assessment process

• Web-based resource

P removal to use

ratio by 8-digit

hydrologic unit

1987

2007

Application>Removal

Removal>Application

Fertilizer Industry in Australia & New Zealand

• Fertilizer Market– 1,100 kt N – 40% produced locally

– 575 kt P - 65% produced locally

– 265 kt - K all imported

– N↓7%, P↓33%, K ↓27%

• Fertilizer Companies Australia– Incitec Pivot Limited (70% of wholesale market in eastern states)

– CSBP major player in WA, 2 Majors in NZ

– 6 domestic fertilizer manufacturers (also importers)

– 9 significant fertilizer importers

– I significant fertilizer exporter

– Many fertilizer resellers, merchants, dealers.

• Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia (Australia) and FertResearch (NZ) co-ordination and stewardship.

N use in Australia/Global

0

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1200

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Year

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

World N

Australia N

Urea

SOA

AnAm

UAN

DAP

MAP

P use in Australia/Global

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0

5000

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20000

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30000

35000

40000

45000

1961

1965

1969

1973

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1985

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2001

2005

World P

Austalia P

DAP

MAP

TSP

Single Super

Nutrient Issues in Australia

• Big picture issues

• Understanding of nutrient balances

– Desktop study building on the NLWA 2001

– Data in this study was collected 1994 to 1996 – most recent information!?!?

– Some P balances done more recently

• Gourley – Dairy farms, Cordell – Continental, Wong – WA (unpublished as yet)

WA SA Vic Tas NSW Qld

N +/~ ~/- - + ~/+ ~/-

P ~/+ ~ -/~ + ~/- -

K - - - ~ - -

S +/~ ~/+ ~/+ + ~/+ -/~

Farm gate N & P balance

Farm gate K & S balance

Case study from the ANRA Audit – Victorian Dairy

All nutrients were in positive balance

Nutrient and sediment loss from horticulture

• Runoff from a small vegetable production enterprise in the Hawkesbury catchment (NSW).

• Measured water, N and P loss from the study area.

• Over 2 years losses were:

• 19 t sediment/ha/y sediment

(1” topsoil)

• 11 kg P/ha/y (on soil)

• 127 kg N/ha/y (in water)

• Bareness over summer and large

nutrient loads associated with

high losses.

E. Hollinger et al. / Agricultural Water

Management 47 (2001) 227±241

Nutrient balance survey - 2002-2009

• Desk-top audit

• Based on ABARE production figures – 2002 – 2009

– State & Small area data (NRM Zones)

• With nutrient densities as proposed by Reuter (used on ANRA survey).

• Estimated a farm gate nutrient removal in product.

• Using FIFA fertilizer input figures – 2002 to 2009

– State figures only

• P, K and S only estimated – to look at N need to estimate N fixation rates

• THIS IS A WORK IN PROGRESS AND RESULTS ARE PRELIMINARY

State by State P removals at farm gate – 2002-2009

0

50

100

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300

NSW Vic Qld WA SA Tas NT

kt

P r

em

oved

Fruit Grain Livestock Sugar Vegetable

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

NSW Vic Qld WA SA Tas NT

kt

K r

em

oved

Fruit Grain Livestock Sugar Vegetable

State by State K removals at farm gate -2002-2009

• No K return for sugar included in this balance – a significant proportion of K is likely to be returned to cane fields as various mill byproducts.

P & K Balance – by State (2002-09)

NT

+1 kt P

0 kt K Qld -3 kt P

WA +81 kt P -36 kt K

-3 kt K

SA +45 kt P

-33 kt K NSW +69 kt P

-62 kt K

Vic +73 kt P

-25 kt K

Tas +13 kt P +11kt K

Nationally

P +278 kt

K -149 kt

P & K Balance – by State per fertilized hectare (2002-09)

NT

+11.7 kg P/ha

-4.6 kg K/ha Qld -1.2 kg P/ha

WA +12.7 kg P/ha -14.9 kg K/ha

-0.4 kg K/ha

SA +2.6 kg P/ha

-1.9 kg K/ha NSW +7.6 kg P/ha

-6.9 kg K/ha K

Vic +9.3 kg P/ha

-3.2 kg K/ha

Tas +22.0 kg P/ha +18.3 kg K/ha

Nationally

P +6.4 kg P/ha*

K -3.4 kg K/ha*

* per fertilized ha ABS 2006-07 Census

• No K return for sugar included in this balance – a significant proportion of K is likely to be returned to cane fields as various mill byproducts.

Soil test P Trends – eg New England Tablelands

8%15%

14%

11%

52%

New England 2005 Colwell P (corrected to PBI)

Soil Test Results (739 samples)

Deficient

Marginal

Adequate

High

Very High

5%

12%

10%

10%63%

New England 2010 Colwell P (corrected to PBI)

Soil Test Results (750 samples)

Deficient

Marginal

Adequate

High

Very High

Dahlen IPL Trial Long Term P –long term P management

Soil P 1996

Soil P 2007

Estimated P balance/year

2010 Canola – P Removal1.44 t/ha 2.76 t/ha 3.07 t/ha 2.89 t/ha7 kg P 17 kg P 21 kg P 22 kg P

Colwell P values – IPL labs (<160 PBI)

Location and Soil Type

Colwell P

(mg/kg)

<20 20 to 35 >35

Harden Red & Brown Loams 10% 19% 71%

Horsham Grey & Brown Clay Loams 24% 32% 44%

Maryborough Red & Brown Clay Loams 10% 28% 62%

Cummins Red & Brown Sandy Loams 4% 45% 51%

Moree Gray &Brown Clay/Clay Loams 82% 13% 6%

Dalby Gray &Brown Clay/Clay Loams 62% 25% 13%

Emerald Gray &Brown Clay Loams 52% 14% 34%

Gunnedah Gray &Brown Clay Loams 14% 37% 49%

Huge district variation in soil P levels –

emphasises the need for soil testing

Changes in soil K test levels – ANRA v IPL Lab 2010

• ANRA Audit up-scaled soil test values to regional value

• 9 Mha with test levels below 120 mg/kg = 10% of area

• Lowest values in WA (25%) & Qld (12%)

State <40 40-80 80-120 120-200 200-400 400-600 >600

Vic 3% 9% 12% 24% 33% 11% 8%

SA 4% 13% 11% 20% 26% 14% 12%

QLD 18% 30% 12% 12% 19% 7% 3%

NSW 1% 4% 17% 9% 41% 18% 9%

TAS 3% 9% 19% 30% 30% 4% 5%

% less 120

11%

16%

25%

44%

18%

No surprises here then

• Declining K use nationally (& NZ)

• Not quite as drastic as the figure @ left

• WA still the big K state

• Largest negative balance in Qld

• Review K use in Qld –Mike Bell project on K & P profile enrichment

S deficiency in Australia

History of S deficiency in

pastures.

Deficiencies first seen in NSW at

Lockhart.

• Soils naturally low in S.

• Declining soil OM levels

• Reduced use of single super –

clear trend to AP’s

• High demand for S by canola.

• Typically on Red Brown Earths.

• Pale petal colour.

S Removal in Australian Agriculture48% removed in Grains, 42% in Livestock

Notional farm gate S balance

• S inputs from current fertilizers – Most superphosphate applied to pastures. DAP/MAP used for grain

• Notionally Australia is in positive S balance

• Not included in this balance

– Added S from mined/biproduct gypsum (4 Mt mined)

– Atmospheric input 4.5 ± 2.1 kg S/ha/y (NLWA 2001)

– S input from irrigation – depends on watershed position

247 kt S/y

+2.9 kg/ha/y

113 kt S/y

Soil S levels – ANRA Audit 2001

• Nationally

11% < 5 mg/kg

• New South Wales

25% < 5 mg/kg

• Victoria

3% < 5 mg/kg

Draws on data from mid-1990’s

Requires revision and review – current IPNI ANZ project

KCl-40

(mg/kg)

Crop Pasture

<8 52% 43%

8-12 20% 30%

>12 28% 27%

2010 Soil S test values (top 10 cm) for Victoria, South Australia,

New South Wales (~1200 tests)

Soil S levels – 2010 (Pre-sowing ie before May 2010)

Location and Soil Type

KCl 40 Wheat

(mg/kg)

KCl 40 Canola

(mg/kg)

<3 3 to 5 >5 <12 >12

Harden Red & Brown Loams 11% 33% 56% 80% 20%

Horsham Grey & Brown Clay Loams 23% 18% 59% 68% 32%

Maryborough Red & Brown Clay Loams 0% 8% 92% 74% 26%

Cummins Red & Brown Sandy Loams 12% 44% 44% 74% 26%

Moree Gray &Brown Clay/Clay Loams 17% 20% 63%

Dalby Gray &Brown Clay/Clay Loams 15% 23% 62%

Emerald Gray &Brown Clay Loams 27% 19% 54%

Gunnedah Gray &Brown Clay Loams 10% 26% 63%

Soil depth 0-10 – mobility of S in profiles, maybe need a deeper soil

test as routine – when request nitrate, also request sulphate.

Role of organic sulphur – should the budget include mineralised S.

Variable P, generally low S

6% 20%

40% 34%

(<200 PBI & 60 mg/kg)

Pasture soil tests from the Armidale region – IPL Labs,

Low P = Low S, High P = likely low S

Nutrient Audit - wheat

• Critical issue is the nutrient contents of produce removed

• Reuter values:

• Evaluate this for wheat

– Took 70 sites from the NVT experiments from 2008 & 2009

– Two cultivars – Yitpi & Gladius

– Analysed for nutrient densities with ICP-OES - Al, B, Ca, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Ni, P, Pb, S, Se, Ti and Zn.

– Grain yield and N contents reported through NVT analyses

– Soil test values reported through NVT

Species N P K S Ca Mg

Wheat (11%) * 2.6 3.6 1.4 0.38 1.2

Wheat (0%) * 2.9 4.0 1.6 0.43 1.4

Effect of site, year and cultivar on nutrient content

N P K S

States 0.071 0.509 0.476 0.191

Regions 0.000 0.000 0.014 0.000

Culitvars 0.998 0.017 0.001 0.236

Year (SA only) 0.000 0.864 0.001 0.116

•P values from AnoVar for data sets

•Significant differences among N, P, K and S contents among regions, but

states compensated for these differences.

•So – nutrient budgets between regions can be quite different.

•Significant differences between these two cultivars for grain P and K

offtakes.

•Not possible to investigate the interaction among site/year/cultivar

P, K and S contents -

• S contents do not vary so much

• P and K values do vary significantly

• Bell reported similar results from CQ

P K S

3329 ±671 4606±645 1742±220

Grain P contents

• What drives grain content?

• Tested grain yield

– No

• Tested soil pH

– No

• Tested Soil P content

– No

• Therefore

– To do a reasonable P balance need actual

grain P contents -

Difference between estimates and actuals

• 2010 canola at the Dahlen site

• Measured yield and actual grain P contents

• Reuter grain P content estimate = 5.1 kg P/t of grain

• Actual content varied with P rate significantly

P rate Yield t/ha Estimated

P removal

Actual P

content

Actual P

removal

0 1.44 7.3 4.7 6.8

9 2.76 14.1 6.2 17.1

18 3.07 15.7 6.9 21.2

36 2.89 14.7 7.5 21.6

Grain Nutrient Levels

(all in mg/kg)

P K S Ca Mg Zn Fe Cu B

International 3600 4000 1700 894 1341 31 59 6 3

CV 53% 20% 24% 61% 33% 41% 62% 61% 71%

Australia 3300 4600 1700 421 1281 23 37 5 2

Australia CV 21% 14% 12% 21% 10% 32% 19% 25% 58%

• International Values taken from IPNI survey of 130 samples from India,

China, Canada, USA, Russia.

• Australian values taken from IPNI survey of 130 samples from NVT

experiments in 2009 from Southeastern Australia. Lowest values in Mallee

and EP samples (19 mg/kg)

Desired range for human health on grains based diet – 35+ mg/kg

Zin

c…es

sential fo

r lif

eWorld Map – Zinc Deficiency

Soils

Humans

Response to Zn

Peck et al 2008

Yield Response to 7.5 kg Zn – 2 of 6 sites

Grain Zn Increase on 5 of 6 sites

DTPA Zn test available but difficult to find yield responsive sites

Grain Zinc Content – regional values

State Region Zn (mg/kg)

NSW South East 23.0±2.4

South West 23.5±2.4

SA Lower EP 18.7±2.0

Mid North 25.4±1.8

Murray Mallee 19.2±1.6

South East 24.5±2.2

Upper EP 26.0±1.4

Yorke Penn. 22.2±2.0

Vic Mallee 18.9±1.7

North Central 25.5±3.4

North East 28.8±3.4

Wimmera 27.3±2.2

Total Mean 23.0±7.3

Regions with alkaline soils – not unexpected

Zn/Fe Baseline levels & Target Levels

Wolfgang H PFEIFFER

Zinc and seed vigour

• Zinc seed content versus concentration

• High content important for early vigour

– <500 ng Zn per seed critical value

– Seed size & grain zinc concentration is important

– 15% below critical

• Low Zn level in seed from

various locations

• Consider Zn application for

seed crops – improve vigour

0

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0 10 20 30 40 50

Zn Content (ng/grain)

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300

Ha

pe

r s

am

ple

2000s

31

83

26

68

32

262249

Soil sampling and sampling

intensity in selected countries

Years reportedArgentina Australia Brazil China India Russia U.S.

1986 1989 1985 1980-1983 NA 1981-1985 19852008 2009 2008 2005-2009 2008 2001-2005 2005

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Sam

ple

s p

er

year,

millio

ns 1980s

2000s

0

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400

600

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1000

1200

1400

1600

1800H

a p

er

sam

ple

1980s

7232

428

4369NA

Ag holdings/sample

U.S. 0.5

India 22

Estimates based on

best available data

1620

Concluding Comments

• Nutrients are critical to sustainable food production

and farming systems.

• Input and output needs at least to be balanced – audit of nutrients important for this.

• Regulations on nutrient management

– Reef Regulations on sugar industry in the wet tropics

– Use of soluble P fertilizers on the Swan coastal plain.

• Right source, right rate, right time, and right place is a simple slogan that integrates a century of science and experience into nutrient stewardship.

• IPNI has a role between research and industry.

Better Crops, Better Environment … through Science

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