Seminar Paperon

Determinants and Consequences of High Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Implications for Reaping and Optimizing

Demographic Dividends

Presented by

Bankole Olatunji T.(SSP14/15/H/1774)

Department of Demography and Social Statistics,

Faculty of Social Sciences, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria

2017

Scope of the Study

Introduction Trends in World Population Fertility Differentials: Developed Versus Less Developed Countries Briefly Looking at the Trends in African Population The Persistent Growth in sub-Saharan Africa Fertility Determinants of Fertility Change in sub-Saharan Africa Consequences of High Fertility in sub-Saharan Africa Implications for Reaping and Optimizing Demographic Dividends Prospect for Fertility Decline in sub-Saharan Africa Conclusion/Area for Further Studies

Introduction

The growth in human population has been allied to a good number of factors, notable among which are his sociocultural, economic and demographic aspects

Over the past 50 years, the human population in the sub-Saharan region of Africa has increased by an alarming rate of 300%, thus, rising from 179.2 million in 1965 to 962.8 million in 2015 (UN, 2015).

A recent empirical report by Population Reference Bureau shows that the first ten countries with the highest TFRs are all situated in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region.

The persistent rise in population in the SSA has been intensively argued by scholars as one of the major hindrances to the attainment of an improved general well-being (Ayodeji et al, 2015; Ezi, 2015; Kerry, 2014; Emmanuel et al, 2009; )

Obviously, the impact of high fertility in the SSA can be unfolded in the short and long run terms. Hence, the objectives of this study:

Objectives of the Study

This paper focus is centered towards the achievement of the outlined below objectives:

To extensively review the recent trends in fertility level in the SSA To further explore the determining factors behind fertility preference

in the SSA, and the consequences in line with each identified factor To examine the fertility prospect in the SSA region To review the extent of fertility differentials in the SSA To examine the implications for reaping and optimizing demographic

dividends, using Nigeria as a Case Study

Trends in World Population

Fertility pattern, particularly in the transition stage was found to be

closely associated with differentials in human culture and

socioeconomic characteristics (Subhas, 2013; Bongaarts,

2011;2008;Jejeebhoy, 1995; Jones, 1982)

The world current population of over 7.3 billion is growing at an

alarming rate of 70 million newborns yearly, and it is expected to

rise to 10.5 billion inhabitants by year 2050 (UN, 2015).

The world population has reproduced itself three times from 1950

to 2015, although with variation across its various regions.

…Continuation

Table 1: World Population Growth (1950-2015)

Population (in Billion)

Regions 1950 2015 Population Increase

World 1.8 7.3 5.5

Developed Countries 1.19 1.2 0.01

Less Developed Countries 2.03 6.09 4.06

Source: UN, 2015 (Department of Economics & Social Affairs, Population Division)

Fertility Differential: Developed vs Less Dev. Countries

The preference for more children is on the decline in the

developed world, with TFRs of below replacement level

The reverse is the case in the less developed world, particularly

in the SSA (UN, 2015; PRB, 2015).

There is a huge gap in population size between these two

regions, while the developed world population of 1.2 billion

peoples account for 16.4% of the global total 7.3 billion

inhabitants, the less developed population of 6.09 billion account

for the remaining 73.6% of the world population (PRB, 2015)

…Continuation

Table 2: Differentials in Rates of Natural Increase (1950- 2015)

(N.I. Rates Per 1000 Population)Regions 1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015

World 17.7 19.6 15.4 11.8

Developed Countries

11.8 6.5 2.3 1.0

Least Developed Countries

21.1 24.3 26.8 27.3

sub-Saharan Africa 19.9 27.1 27.2 27.3

Source: UN, 2015 (Department of Economics & Social Affairs, Population Division)

Briefly Looking at the Trend of African Population

The pace of decline in fertility rates on the African continent is relatively

slower compared with other developing regions of the world (UN,2015;

Olanrewaju, 2013; Bongaarts, 2011).

With the TFRs of Niger rep., DR Congo, Chad rep., Central Africa rep., and

the rest, but Mauritius (1.4) above replacement level (2.1), the African

continent is the fastest growing region in the world by fertility growth

rates.

However, there are differentials in the population growth across the

continent different regions over the past 65 years.

…Continuation

Table 3: Differentials in African Rates of Natural Increase (1950- 2015)(N.I. Rates Per 1000 Population)

Regions 1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2000-2005 2010-2015

Africa 21.2 27.2 26.2 24.9 26.0

Sub-Saharan 19.9 27.1 27.2 26.5 27.3

Eastern Africa 22.5 29.4 27.5 27.8 28.4

Middle Africa 18.9 26.3 30.2 30.3 30.2

Northern Africa 26.2 27.3 22.7 18.4 20.7

Southern Africa 23.4 25.2 20.4 10.7 9.8

Western Africa 16.9 25.5 27.1 26.9 28.0

Source: UN, 2015 (Department of Economics & Social Affairs, Population Division)

The Persistent Growth in sub-Saharan Africa Fertility

All the countries but Mauritius on the African continent TFRs are above the replacement level.

By 2100, 14 out of 30 most populated countries in the world would be from the continent, with SSA accounting for 12 out of these countries (PRB, 2015).

Over the past 65 years, the continent of Africa has grown from 228 million to 1.2 billion inhabitants, with the SSA sporadically increasing from 249.2 to 962.8 million within this period (UN,2015).

The continent population is expected to rise to 3.02 billion by 2025, then rise to 3.05 billion by 2050 and then hit an alarming figure of 14.95 billion people by 2100 (PRB, 2015)

Table 4: Distribution of African Countries by Extreme TFRs and Countries with Lowest TFRs

Countries with Lowest TFRs Countries with Highest TFRs African Countries with TFR <3.0Bosnia-Herzegovina (1.2) Niger Rep. (7.6)*** Mauritius (1.4)Portugal (1.2) South Sudan (6.9) *** Tunisia (2.1)South Korea (1.2) DR Congo (6.6) *** Libya (2.4)Taiwan (1.2) Somalia (6.6) *** Seychelles (2.4) ***Andorra (1.3) Chad Rep. (6.5) *** Reunion (2.4) ***Cyprus (1.3) Burundi (6.2) *** Morocco (2.5)Greece (1.3) Central Africa Rep. (6.2) *** South Africa (2.6) ***Singapore (1.3) Angola (6.1) *** Botswana (2.9) ***Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2015.Note: ***sub-Saharan country

Determinants of Fertility Change in sub-Saharan Africa

Fertility rates across the region of SSA are at extremes, with 45 out the 66 nations with highest fertilities centered in the region (UN,2015).

Some of the major determinants of fertility change in the SAA are: Children as Old Age Security The Influence of Education Age at Entry into Marriage The Economic Contribution of Minor Children Contraception (Unmet Need) High Rate of Infant Mortality Postpartum Abstinence/Pattern of Breastfeeding

Consequences of High Fertility in SAA

Child’s Denial of Right to Basic Education

Disparities in School Gender Parity (PRB, 2015)

Poor Living Standard & Low Quality of Life (Oluwasola & Terfa,

2014; Olarewaju et al, 2013; Akokuwebe & Okunola, 2012)

High Total Dependency Ratio : 86.2% in 2005; 87.7% in 2010;

87.7% in 2015 (UN, 2015)

High Child Dependency Ratio: 81.1% in 2005; 82.3% in 2010;

82.6% in 2015 (UN, 2015)

Implications for Reaping and Optimizing Demographic Dividends: Nigeria as a Case Study

Economic Growth and Sustainable Development: GDP Versus Real GDP (Per Capita Income)

Quantity Versus of Quality of Labour Force: High Rate Average Employment Status Versus Under Employment

Investment on Human Capital Development: How Prepared is the Population in relation to Human dignity and Human welfare?

High Dependency Ratio : Total Dependency Versus Child Dependency Ratio

Food Insecurity Versus Disequilibrium of the Ecosystem Youth Unemployment Versus Induced Migration

Prospect for Fertility Decline in sub-Saharan Africa

The SSA is characterized with very young population, hence there is a little chance for a decline in the region population (Oluwasola & Terfa, 2014; Jean-Pierre, 2012)

The sociocultural beliefs, norms and values of the majority of the peoples of the SSA are in support of large family size (Caldwell, 2002; 1992; 1987; Bongaarts, 2011)

There are still a relatively a wider unmeet need for contraception among women in their reproductive ages in almost all the SSA countries (UN,2015; PRB, 2015)

The SAA region is still characterized with a relatively higher Educational Gender Parity Index compared with those of other developing regions in the world (PRB, 2015)

Conclusion:

Uncontrolled population growth has been identified as one of the major hindrances to the sustainability of economic growth which is essential for the attainment of economic development in the sub-Saharan Africa, although in exception of a few countries- Mauritius, Tunisia, Morocco, Libya, Botswana and South Africa.

However, if the large population is well-harnessed, it may turn-out to be an asset that would not only promote economy expansion but also make these countries less dependence on developed nations for economic directives.

Nevertheless, there are still great needs for the region to embrace the suggested measures to controlling its rapid population growth rate, in order to be able to sustain the attained improved quality of life in the long run.

Area for Further Research:

The study affirmed that the anticipated demographic dividends in

the sub-Saharan Africa region has come with more of negative than

positive implications in virtually all its nations.

Therefore, it is suggestable that further studies should endeavor to

explore the roles of income redistribution human capacity building

on population sustainability with primary aim of achieving the Goal

1, 4, 8 and 10 of Sustainable Development Goals on before year

2030.

THANKSFOR

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