Ferry Safety and Weather: A Statistical Approach

Abigail Golden

Worldwide Ferry Safety Association

2015 Ferry Safety and Technology Conference

New York City

Results

•  Sources: local and global news reports

•  25 data fields collected for 165 accidents, including date, time, location, vessel operator, fatality count, etc.

14-Year Longitudinal Study

•  Over 17,000 deaths worldwide in 39 countries (conservative estimate)

•  Three-quarters of all deaths occurred in only five countries: Bangladesh, Senegal, Indonesia, Tanzania, and the Philippines

Fatalities

Senegal

Bangladesh

Created in Google Fusion Tables

Weather and Ferry Accidents •  53% of all ferry accidents at least partially caused by

adverse weather •  Compare to 78% caused by human error and 33%

caused by overloading

•  Common factors: •  Strong currents and other navigational challenges •  Wind and rain •  Typhoons or seasonal storms (monsoons) •  Fog

•  Other factors: •  Rogue or freak waves (more to come from Stephan

Grilli)

Weather does not act in isolation…

•  Overloading implicated in 31% of weather-related accidents

•  Vessel instability or mechanical failure played a role in 20% of weather-related accidents

•  Collisions in fog Credit: Reuters/Rafiqur Rahman

Case Study MV Le Joola (2002)

•  Senegalese ferry operated by the armed forces

•  1,863 fatalities; only 64 survivors

•  Sank in a violent storm off the coast of Gambia

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Case Study MV Princess of the Stars (2008)

•  Philippines vessel owned by Sulpicio Lines (now Span-Asia Carrier Corp.)

•  67 bodies recovered; 747 missing

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Solutions and Mitigations •  Encourage insurance companies to take on the

developing world

•  Improve weather information systems at sea

•  The RANET Chatty Beetle

•  Develop improved weather detection systems

•  How will we deal with climate change?

Learn More   Full dataset available at www.ferrysafety.org/news

  Upcoming presentations at IMO and World Maritime Rescue Congress

  Brand-new WFSA blog

Contact:

Abigail Golden

abigolden@gmail.com

@saferferries