Fermanian Business & Economic Institute December 8, 2015 Lynn Reaser, Ph.D. Chief Economist 2016...
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Fermanian Business & Economic Institute December 8, 2015 Lynn Reaser, Ph.D. Chief Economist 2016 Global Economic Outlook The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015 THE ECONOMIC CLUB OF LAS VEGAS
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The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI Clients include: National Association for Business Economics, California State Treasurer, Terrapin Bright Green, San Diego Military Advisory Council, San Diego Zoo Global, Sempra Generation, and many other private, public, and government organizations. Fermanian Business & Economic PLNU For information on how we can work together contact us:
Transcript of Fermanian Business & Economic Institute December 8, 2015 Lynn Reaser, Ph.D. Chief Economist 2016...
Fermanian Business & Economic Institute
December 8, 2015
Lynn Reaser, Ph.D.Chief Economist
2016 Global Economic Outlook
The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015
THE ECONOMIC CLUB
OF LAS VEGAS
2The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015
INTRODUCTION
The Institute is a strategic unit of PLNU that specializes in a variety of consulting services dedicated to discovering insights that effect change for organizations around the globe.Our skilled team of consultants, economists, and researchers provide clients and partners with individualized, actionable results that support strategic decision-making.
3The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015
Clients include: National Association for Business Economics, California State Treasurer, Terrapin Bright Green, San Diego Military Advisory Council, San Diego Zoo Global, Sempra Generation, and many other private, public, and government organizations.
Fermanian Business & Economic Institute@ PLNU
For information on how we can work together contact us:
Global Outlook
The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201530
35
40
45
50
55
60
Global Manufacturing Barely Growing
Index, 50 plus = expansion
The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015
China’s Upswing StallsReal GDP, percent change over prior year
2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016f2
4
6
8
e = estimate f = forecast
The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015
Oil Prices CollapseBrent Crude Oil, dollars per barrel, quarterly average
2006 20
020
020
020
09 20 20 2020
12 20 20 20 2 20 200
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Actual Forecast
e = estimate f = forecast
The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015
Quantitative Easing Goes GlobalCentral bank assets/GDP, percent
Japan China U.S. ECB U.K.0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015
U.S. Dollar SoarsBroad Trade-Weighted Index, Jan. 1997=100, Dec. average
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016f90
100
110
120
130ForecastActual
e = estimate f = forecast
The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015
Migration Crisis Confronts EUFirst time asylum applicants, quarterly totals,
thousands
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015
e = estimate
World Economy to Expand ModeratelyReal GDP, percent change over prior year
Advanced Developing World0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2.2
4.8
3.7
20142015e
2016f
e = estimate f = forecast
The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015
Global Risks Probability, percent
Europe
China
Natural Disaster
Stock Market
Middle East
Terrorist Attack
0 10 20 30 40
The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015
Fermanian Business &
Economic Institute
www.pointloma.edu/fbeiMain Office: 619.849.7068
The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015
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