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Feed Grain and Wheat Market Situation And Outlook 2001 Southern Region Agricultural Outlook...
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Feed Grain and Wheat Market Situation And Outlook 2001 Southern Region Agricultural Outlook Conference September 25,2001 Kurt M. Guidry Associate Specialist LSU Agricultural Center
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Transcript of Feed Grain and Wheat Market Situation And Outlook 2001 Southern Region Agricultural Outlook...
Feed Grain and WheatMarket Situation And Outlook
2001 Southern Region Agricultural Outlook ConferenceSeptember 25,2001
Kurt M. GuidryAssociate Specialist
LSU Agricultural Center
Current Feed Grain Fundamentals Supply Side
Demand Side
2001 Corn Crop Estimated At 9.238 Billion Bushels-Down 730 From 2000/01. 2001 Sorghum Crop Estimated At 537 Million Bushels-Up 67 From 2000/01. World Corn Production Down About 7.24 Million Metric Tons From 2000/01 World Coarse Grain Production Up 3.14 Million Metric Tons From 2000/01
Supply - Demand = Ending Stocks Corn Stocks Expected To Fall By 577 Million Bushels in 2001/02 Sorghum Stocks To Increase By 28 Million Bushels in 2001/02 World Coarse Grain And Corn Stocks To Fall In 2001/02 Expected Corn Price - $1.95 - $2.35, Sorghum -$1.95 - $2.35
Exports To Increase By 35 Million Bushels From 2000/01 Starlink, Mad Cow, and Foot and Mouth Disease Impacts Feed Demand Expected Down Slightly Ethanol Production Expected To Increase Dramatically 2001 Corn Use Estimated At 9.825 Billion Bushels 2001 Sorghum Use Estimated At 510 Million Bushels
U.S. Corn Supply and Use (Domestic Measure)2000/01 2000/01 ------------- 2001/02---------------- 2001/02
Item Estimate (Sept. - Aug.) August September (Sept. - Aug.)Million Acres Change Million Acres Million Acres Change
Area Planted 79.5 0.00 76.0 76.0 0.00 Harvested 72.7 0.00 69.2 69.2 0.00
Bushels Bushels BushelsYield per harvested acre 137.1 0.00 133.9 133.5 -0.40
Million Bushels Million Bushels Million BushelsBeginning stocks 1,718 0.00 2,003 1,938 -65.00 Production 9,968 0.00 9,266 9,238 -28.00 Imports 7 0.00 15 10 -5.00 Supply, total 11,693 0.00 11,284 11,186 -98.00 Feed and residual 5,850 0.00 5,775 5,800 25.00 Food, seed, & industrial 1,965 0.00 2,050 2,050 0.00 Domestic, total 7,815 0.00 7,825 7,850 25.00 Exports 1,940 65.00 2,000 1,975 -25.00 Use, total 9,755 65.00 9,825 9,825 0.00 Ending Stocks 1,938 -65.00 1,459 1,361 -98.00 Stocks To Use 19.87% 14.85% 13.85%Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 1.85 1.90 - 2.30 1.75 - 2.15
74,166 75,957 79,311
73,239
78,921
71,479
79,229 79,537 80,16577,431
79,579 76,109
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Thousa
nd A
cres
U.S. Corn Planted Acres
7,934 7,475
9,477
6,338
10,051
7,400
9,233 9,2079,759 9,431 9,968
9,238
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mill
ion B
ush
els
U.S. Corn Production
1,4251,534 1,556
1,6131,715
1,6281,714
1,805 1,8461,913 1,965
2,050
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Mill
ion B
ush
els
U.S. Corn Food, Seed,& Industrial Use
Projected U.S. Ethanol Production
Existing Plants
New Plants
Total
2,219
82
2,301
2,481
518
2,999
2,689
1,329
4,018
2,774
1,387
4,161
2,852
1,575
4,427
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
-------- Million gallons per year --------
4,6094,798
5,252
4,680
5,460
4,693
5,2775,482 5,471 5,664
5,850 5,800
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mill
ion B
ush
els
U.S. Corn Feed & Residual Use
1,7271,584
1,663
1,328
2,177 2,228
1,797
1,504
1,981 1,937 1,940 1,975
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Mill
ion B
ush
els
U.S. Corn Exports
1,521
1,100
2,113
850
1,558
426
883
1,308
1,775 1,718
1,930
1,361
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Mill
ion B
ush
els
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Perc
ent
Ending Stocks
Stocks To Use Ratio
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Dolla
rs P
er
Bush
el
Corn Prices
Grain Sorghum Prices
U.S. Yearly Average Feed Grain Prices
U.S. Sorghum Supply and Use (Domestic Measure)2000/01 2000/01 -------------- 2001/02---------------- 2001/02
Item Estimate (Sept. - Aug.) August September (Sept. - Aug.)Million Acres Change Million Acres Million Acres Change
Area Planted 9.2 0.00 10.0 10.0 0.00 Harvested 7.7 0.00 8.8 8.8 0.00
Bushels Bushels BushelsYield per harvested acre 60.9 0.00 62.0 61.2 -0.80
Million Bushels Million Bushels Million BushelsBeginning stocks 65 0.00 20 20 0.00 Production 470 0.00 544 537 -7.00 Imports 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 Supply, total 535 0.00 565 558 -7.00 Feed and residual 235 0.00 225 225 0.00 Food, seed, & industrial 35 0.00 45 45 0.00 Domestic, total 270 0.00 270 270 0.00 Exports 245 0.00 250 240 -10.00 Use, total 515 0.00 520 510 -10.00 Ending Stocks 20 0.00 45 48 3.00 Stocks To Use 3.88% 8.65% 9.41%Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 1.88 1.85 - 2.25 1.85 - 2.25
10,53511,064
13,177
9,882 9,787 9,429
13,097
10,0529,626 9,288 9,200
10,000
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
0
5
10
15
Thousa
nd A
cres
U.S. Sorghum Planted Acres
573 585
875
534
646
459
795
634
520
595
470537
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Mill
ion B
ush
els
U.S. Sorghum Production
17 1719 20
2219
45
55
45
55
35
45
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mill
ion B
ush
els
U.S. Sorghum Food, Seed, & Industrial Use
401
366
457440
377
295
516
365
262284
235 225
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Mill
ion B
ush
els
U.S. Sorghum Feed & Residual Use
233
291277
202223
198 205 212197
256245 240
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Mill
ion B
ush
els
U.S. Sorghum Exports
143
53
175
48
72
18 47
4965 65
2048
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
0
50
100
150
200
Mill
ion B
ush
els
0
5
10
15
20
25
Perc
ent
Ending Stocks
Stocks To Use Ratio
U.S. Sorghum Ending Stocks
1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02
Marketing Year
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Mill
ion M
etr
ic T
ons
World Corn Production
1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02
Marketing Year
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Mill
ion M
etr
ic T
ons
China
United States
European Union
Brazil
World Corn Production
1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02
Marketing Year
0
50
100
150
200
Mill
ion M
etr
ic T
ons
World Corn Ending Stocks
1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02
Marketing Year
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mill
ion M
etr
ic T
ons
China
United States
European Union
Brazil
World Corn Ending Stocks
Current Wheat Fundamentals Supply Side
Demand Side
2001 Wheat Crop Estimated At 1.99 B.Bushels-Down 231 From 2000/01. World Wheat Production Down 7.98 Million Metric Tons From 2000/01
Supply - Demand = Ending Stocks Wheat Stocks Expected To Fall By 241 Million Bushels in 2001/02 World Wheat Stocks To Fall By 23.99 Million Metric Tons In 2001/02 Expected Wheat Price - $2.70 - $3.10
Exports To Decrease By 11 Million Bushels From 2000/01 Global Wheat Trade Expected To Rebound After Poor 2000/01 2001 Wheat Use Estimated At 2.322 Billion Bushels
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use (Domestic Measure)2000/01 2000/01 ------------- 2001/02-------------- 2001/02
Item Estimate (Sept. - Aug.) August September (Sept. - Aug.)Million Acres Change Million Acres Million Acres Change
Area Planted 62.5 0.00 59.6 59.6 0.00 Harvested 53.0 0.00 49.3 49.3 0.00
Bushels Bushels BushelsYield per harvested acre 41.9 0.00 40.2 40.4 0.20
Million Bushels Million Bushels Million BushelsBeginning stocks 950 0.00 873 873 0.00 Production 2,223 0.00 1,985 1,991 6.00 Imports 90 0.00 90 90 0.00 Supply, total 3,263 0.00 2,948 2,954 6.00 Food 957 -3.00 970 960 -10.00 Seed 80 0.00 87 87 0.00 Feed and Residual 292 3.00 225 225 0.00 Domestic, total 1,328 0.00 1,282 1,272 -10.00 Exports 1,061 0.00 1,050 1,050 0.00 Use, total 2,390 0.00 2,332 2,322 -10.00 Ending Stocks 873 0.00 616 632 16.00 Stocks To Use 36.53% 26.42% 27.22%Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2.62 2.70 - 3.30 2.70 - 3.10
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mill
ion A
cres
All Wheat
Winter Wheat
Durum Wheat
Other Spring Wheat
U.S. Wheat Harvested Acres
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Marketing Year
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bush
els
/Acr
e
All Wheat
Winter Wheat
Durum Wheat
Other Spring Wheat
U.S. Wheat Yield
2,3212,183
2,277
2,4812,547
2,299 2,223
1,991
1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02
Marketing Year
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Mill
ion B
ush
els
U.S. Wheat Production
853 883 891 914 907 929957 960
1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02
Marketing Year
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Mill
ion B
ush
els
U.S. Wheat Domestic Food Use
345
154
308
251
397
280 292
225
1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02
Marketing Year
0
100
200
300
400
500
Mill
ion B
ush
els
U.S. Wheat Feed And Residual Use
1,1881,241
1,0021,040 1,042
1,090 1,061 1,050
1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02
Marketing Year
0
500
1000
1500
Mill
ion B
ush
els
U.S. Wheat Exports
507
376
444
722
946 950873
632
1994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/02
Marketing Year
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Mill
ion B
ush
els
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Perc
ent
Ending Stocks
Stocks to Use Ratio
U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
Marketing Year
2
3
4
5
6
Dolla
rs P
er
Bush
el
Durum
Other Spring
Winter
All Wheat
U.S. Wheat Prices
524.0 538.4
581.9609.2
588.8 586.4 579.1 571.07
1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02
Marketing Year
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Mill
ion M
etr
ic T
ons
World Wheat Production
118.2108.4 113.4
138.7 135.6
168.1158.5
134.5
1994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/02
Marketing Year
0
50
100
150
200
Mill
ion M
etr
ic T
ons
5
10
15
20
25
Perc
ent
Production
World Stocks-To-Use Ratio
U.S. Share Of Total World Stocks
World Wheat Ending Stocks
