Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Second District

Project by

Rodolfo Capiro

Joseph Seifried

Timothy F. Geithner President and CEO since November 17,2003.

Small Increase on Real Consumption at the National Level, due to the Stimulus Checks

Gross Domestic Product Growth in the 1st Quarter for the National Economy

Price Increases and Inflation Outlook for the National Economy

National CPI as the Leader Indicator of Inflation for U.S. Consumers

Reduction of Payroll + Rise of Unemployment as Signs of Weakness on the Labor Markets

Personal Income Decline From Previous Months attributed to Weak Business Conditions

Regional CPI Mostly in Line with the National Average

Flat Payroll Employment due to Layoffs on the Financial Sector of the Regional Economy

More Subprime Related Writedowns to Come for Security Dealers on the Coming Quarters

The Falling Dollar, Cheaper U.S. Goods, Greater Foreign Demand, Boost on Exports

Crude Oil Futures over $140 Translates into $4.10 a Gallon of Gas, National Average

NO Change on the Federal Funds Interest Rate at 2.00%, Until Signs of Economic Recovery at

the Regional and National Level

• Economic Slowdown would Put Downward Pressure on Prices

• More Writeoffs on the Coming Quarters Causing Weakness on Financial Markets

• The Risk of a U.S. and a Global Recession Outweighs Prices Increases