Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration Analysis of HOS Rules briefing to the Motor Carrier...
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![Page 1: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration Analysis of HOS Rules briefing to the Motor Carrier Safety Advisory Committee December 7, 2009 Mark Johnson,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070400/56649ef55503460f94c08ce6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration
Analysis of HOS Rulesbriefing to the
Motor Carrier Safety Advisory Committee
December 7, 2009
Mark Johnson, Economist, Analysis Division FMCSA Barry Galef, Senior Economist, ICF
![Page 2: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration Analysis of HOS Rules briefing to the Motor Carrier Safety Advisory Committee December 7, 2009 Mark Johnson,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070400/56649ef55503460f94c08ce6/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2FMCSA December 7, 2009
Overview: Presenters and Topics
Mark Johnson, FMCSA:
Data Sources for Analysis Crash Data Fatigue Data Industry Data
Barry Galef, ICF International:
Use of the Data for Regulatory Analysis Cost analysis Benefit analysis Impact analysis
![Page 3: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration Analysis of HOS Rules briefing to the Motor Carrier Safety Advisory Committee December 7, 2009 Mark Johnson,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070400/56649ef55503460f94c08ce6/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3FMCSA December 7, 2009
Crash Data ►Motor Carrier Management Information System Crash Data
(MCMIS)• Fatal, injury, and tow-away crashes, but no associated factor info.
►Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS)• Only fatal crashes, but has limited associated factor data
►Trucks Involved in Fatal Accidents (TIFA)• Based on FARS, but supplemented with closer scrutiny of police
accident reports and follow on questions
• Has associated factor and hour of driving information
►Large Truck Crash Causation Study (LTCCS)• Most comprehensive associated factor data
• Limited collection period and smaller sample size than other data sources
![Page 4: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration Analysis of HOS Rules briefing to the Motor Carrier Safety Advisory Committee December 7, 2009 Mark Johnson,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070400/56649ef55503460f94c08ce6/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4FMCSA December 7, 2009
Data on Driving & On-duty Schedules ►FMCSA Field Survey (mostly small carriers)
• Average length of tour of duty (on-duty and drive time)
• Weekly drive time, and use of 11th hour and 34 hour restart
• Data on local vs. over-the-road drivers
►Schneider Survey (large truck load carrier)• Use of 11th hour and 34 hour restart
• Average daily and weekly duty and driving time
►OOIDA Survey of Owner-Operators• Data on frequency of use of 11th hour and 34 hour restarts
►Anonymous surveys give indications of compliance• UMTIP survey of truck drivers
• IIHS anonymous survey of long-haul truck drivers
![Page 5: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration Analysis of HOS Rules briefing to the Motor Carrier Safety Advisory Committee December 7, 2009 Mark Johnson,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070400/56649ef55503460f94c08ce6/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5FMCSA December 7, 2009
Industry Profile Data ►Truck driver wage and compensation data: Bureau of
Labor Statistics
►Revenue/Profitability data
• TTS Blue Book of Trucking Companies for larger firms
• Risk Management Association for smaller firms
►Owner-Operator profile – Owner-Operator Independent Driver Association, MCMIS Census
►Total size of the industry – MCMIS Census, OOIDA, TTS, ATA and Economic Census
►Drivers and Power Units – VIUS, TTS, Economic Census, MCMIS and ATA
![Page 6: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration Analysis of HOS Rules briefing to the Motor Carrier Safety Advisory Committee December 7, 2009 Mark Johnson,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070400/56649ef55503460f94c08ce6/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6FMCSA December 7, 2009
RIA Overview: Answering These Questions
► What is the baseline?
► How do HOS options affect operations?
► How do the operational changes affect …
• Industry costs?
• Crashes?
► Given these changes, which options are cost-effective?
► What impacts are there besides costs and benefits?
![Page 7: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration Analysis of HOS Rules briefing to the Motor Carrier Safety Advisory Committee December 7, 2009 Mark Johnson,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070400/56649ef55503460f94c08ce6/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7FMCSA December 7, 2009
Establishing an Industry Baseline
► Profile of the Affected Industry
• Divide into short vs. long-haul (LH)
• Divide into private fleets vs. for-hire
• Divide LH into TL (truckload) /LTL (less than truckload) and team/solo
► Operational Patterns
• Estimate distribution of freight hauls
• Divide into regular/“random” patterns
• Estimate current use of HOS provisions
![Page 8: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration Analysis of HOS Rules briefing to the Motor Carrier Safety Advisory Committee December 7, 2009 Mark Johnson,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070400/56649ef55503460f94c08ce6/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8FMCSA December 7, 2009
Estimating Cost Impacts of HOS Options
►Analysis starts with impacts on schedules
►Regular patterns can be assessed directly
►Complex/irregular operations call for detailed modeling of HOS options
• RIA for 2003 rules used commercial software
• RIA for 2005 rules used a computer simulation of “drivers” choosing among randomly generated loads under various HOS constraints
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9FMCSA December 7, 2009
Valuing Changes in Productivity
►Assuming the same freight needs to be delivered, lower productivity implies more drivers
►Cost of hiring another driver is compared to the cost of using the same drivers slightly more
►Examined the compensation of drivers working different schedules to compare costs
►Found that a 1 percent drop in productivity increases industry costs by about $300 million
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10FMCSA December 7, 2009
►HOS options affect work schedules
change in amount and timing of rest
change in alertness/fatigue
changes in crashes
change in damages
►To draw quantitative conclusions, we had to model most of these steps explicitly
Overview of Benefits Analysis
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11FMCSA December 7, 2009
Effect of Work Schedules on Rest
Hours on Duty
Hours of Sleep
Δ in Sleep per Hour on Duty
0 8.3 -
6 7.6 -0.1
8 7.5 -0.1
10 7.3 -0.1
12 6.9 -0.2
14 6.4 -0.3
16 5.5 -0.4
18 4.3 -0.6
►Another hour off duty can mean more sleep – but not on a one-to-one basis
► Walter Reed Field Study let us estimate relationship
Effects of Duty Hours on Sleep
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
Hours On-duty
Ho
urs
of
Sle
ep
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12FMCSA December 7, 2009
Driver Health Research Effect of Changes in Rest on Alertness
► RIA for 2003 HOS rules used the Walter Reed Sleep Performance Model (SPM) (in Excel)
► For 2005, we used SAFTE/FAST (related to SPM)
Regular Schedule Irregular Schedule
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13FMCSA December 7, 2009
Driver Health Research Separate “Time on Task” Adder for 2005 and After
► Allowed for an independent effect beyond effect of excessive time awake
► Fit a polynomial, then a logistic, to TIFA data
0%
10%
20%
30%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Hours of Driving
Average Fatigue Involvement in TIFA
Cubic
Logistic
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14FMCSA December 7, 2009
Driver Health Research Assessing the Results
► We “monetized” the changes in crashes using a study of crash damages
► Subtracting compliance costs from the dollar value of benefits yielded the net benefit of a proposal
► Some benefits are hard to quantify, though, and are often left out of net benefit calculations
► Other impacts – mode shifts, jobs losses, hardships for small entities – are often important to decision makers, and need to measured