Federal Bank BUY - bsmedia.business-standard.com · Federal Bank BUY Maintained Transitioning away...

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Market Cap Rs109bn/US$1.5bn Year to Mar FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Reuters/Bloomberg FED.BO/FB IN NII (Rs bn) 41.8 46.5 48.2 55.1 Shares Outstanding (mn) 1,992.8 Net Profit (Rs bn) 12.4 15.4 9.3 17.8 52-week Range (Rs) 96/37 EPS (Rs) 6.3 7.8 4.7 8.9 Free Float (%) 100.0 % Chg YoY 32.3 23.4 -39.7 91.0 FII (%) 31.5 P/E (x) 8.7 7.1 11.8 6.2 Daily Volume (US$'000) 21,598 P/BV (x) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 Absolute Return 3m (%) 39.6 Net NPA (%) 1.5 1.3 2.1 1.7 Absolute Return 12m (%) (35.6) Dividend Yield (%) 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.8 Sensex Return 3m (%) 24.9 RoA (%) 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.9 Sensex Return 12m (%) 3.5 RoE (%) 9.8 11.1 6.2 11.0 Equity Research August 20, 2020 BSE Sensex: 38220 ICICI Securities Limited is the author and distributor of this report Banking Company update and TP revision Target price: Rs70 Target price revision Rs70 from Rs65 Shareholding pattern Dec '19 Mar '20 Jun '20 Promoters 0.0 0.0 0.0 Institutional investors 70.5 70.4 68.1 MFs and UTI 27.1 26.0 26.4 Insurance Cos. 4.9 4.7 4.7 FIs and Banks 5.1 5.9 6.3 FIIs 33.4 33.8 31.5 Others 29.5 29.6 31.9 Source: CMIE Price chart 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 Aug-20 (Rs) Federal Bank BUY Maintained Transitioning away from typical regional bank profile Rs55 Federal Bank’s earnings volatility and sub-1% RoA profile has disconcerted investors – leading to valuation discount and underperformance. However, through the turbulent journey in the past cycle, its structural transition away from ‘typical old generation regional bank mindset’ is comforting. Why do we say so – 1) revamped business architecture, state-of-the-art digital initiatives, consistent rise in market share; 2) similar to new private bank’s approach to build better rated corporate book (78% rated A & above), tread cautiously in SME and channelize retail to existing clientele; 3) strengthened liability muscle – core NR base, tapping HNIs, leveraging digital platform and fin-tech tie-ups. What gives confidence on improving return profile: 1) limited exposure to vulnerable sectors – can manage Covid disruption with worst case credit cost estimate of 2.7%; 2) opportunistically venturing into RoA- accretive segments (CV, PL/CC, MFI, etc), 3) better margin profile coupled with operating leverage benefit. Undoubtedly, fee income scale up is awaited. Valuations at 0.7x FY22E more than adequately captures pessimism and risk-reward is favorable. Reiterate BUY (more convincingly) with revised target price of Rs70 (earlier Rs65). Structural transition away from ‘typical old generation regional bank mindset’: It revamped its business architecture: created separate business verticals, rolled out RM model in wholesale banking to capture end-to-end customer needs, integrated offering along the supply chain, 360-degree servicing points for retail network, navigated outside Kerala (network-2) - demonstrating encouraging results in most of these initiatives reflected in consistent rise in market segment across segments. Granular liability franchise is so far under-appreciated: Retail deposits at >90%, cost of deposits at 5.4%, incremental peak FD rates closer to best-in-class and savings deposit rates at the lowest end at 2.5% - but still gaining deposit market share talks of its deposits franchise. Leveraging the brand and inherent geographical advantage, it has built granular deposit franchise focused on sticky non-resident base (~38% of total deposits). Incrementally it is deepening its presence with HNIs (currently forming 45% of CASA), actively chasing high value savings and at the same time targeting millennials through fin-tech tie-ups. Asset mix - favorable in current cycle: Competitive deposit profile has helped it build better rated assets, following new private bank’s approach in scaling up the balance sheet - build better rated corporate book (78% rated A & above), tread cautiously in SME (mere 6% CAGR over FY18-20) and rising pie of retail skewed towards secured segments (mortgage contributes ~67% to total retail assets) and that too towards existing clientele. This coupled with lower exposure to vulnerable industries (at 5%) will help it navigate better through the crisis. How effectively will it navigate current crisis – Besides above stated qualitative factors imbibing confidence, moratorium at ~24% (12 th July’20) and ~11/12% adjusted for partial payments, is not unduly out of sync with similar profile banks. Even in the worst- case scenario building estimates for credit cost (at 2.7%), NIMs (30bps lower), fee income (20bps lower), the argument of networth erosion is not sustainable. In such circumstances, 0.7x FY22E BV seems factoring in lot of pessimism rending risk reward favorable. We, now more convincingly, reiterate our BUY. INDIA Research Analysts: Renish Bhuva [email protected] +91 22 6637 7465 Kunal Shah [email protected] +91 22 6637 7572 Abhijit Tibrewal, CFA [email protected] +91 22 6637 7230

Transcript of Federal Bank BUY - bsmedia.business-standard.com · Federal Bank BUY Maintained Transitioning away...

Page 1: Federal Bank BUY - bsmedia.business-standard.com · Federal Bank BUY Maintained Transitioning away from typical regional bank profile Rs55 . Federal Bank’s earnings volatility and

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Market Cap Rs109bn/US$1.5bn Year to Mar FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Reuters/Bloomberg FED.BO/FB IN NII (Rs bn) 41.8 46.5 48.2 55.1 Shares Outstanding (mn) 1,992.8 Net Profit (Rs bn) 12.4 15.4 9.3 17.8 52-week Range (Rs) 96/37 EPS (Rs) 6.3 7.8 4.7 8.9 Free Float (%) 100.0 % Chg YoY 32.3 23.4 -39.7 91.0 FII (%) 31.5 P/E (x) 8.7 7.1 11.8 6.2 Daily Volume (US$'000) 21,598 P/BV (x) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 Absolute Return 3m (%) 39.6 Net NPA (%) 1.5 1.3 2.1 1.7 Absolute Return 12m (%) (35.6) Dividend Yield (%) 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.8 Sensex Return 3m (%) 24.9 RoA (%) 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.9 Sensex Return 12m (%) 3.5 RoE (%) 9.8 11.1 6.2 11.0

Equity Research August 20, 2020 BSE Sensex: 38220 ICICI Securities Limited is the author and distributor of this report

Banking Company update and TP revision Target price: Rs70 Target price revision Rs70 from Rs65 Shareholding pattern

Dec '19

Mar '20

Jun '20

Promoters 0.0 0.0 0.0 Institutional investors 70.5 70.4 68.1 MFs and UTI 27.1 26.0 26.4 Insurance Cos. 4.9 4.7 4.7 FIs and Banks 5.1 5.9 6.3 FIIs 33.4 33.8 31.5 Others 29.5 29.6 31.9

Source: CMIE

Price chart

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Federal Bank BUY Maintained Transitioning away from typical regional bank profile Rs55

Federal Bank’s earnings volatility and sub-1% RoA profile has disconcerted investors – leading to valuation discount and underperformance. However, through the turbulent journey in the past cycle, its structural transition away from ‘typical old generation regional bank mindset’ is comforting. Why do we say so – 1) revamped business architecture, state-of-the-art digital initiatives, consistent rise in market share; 2) similar to new private bank’s approach to build better rated corporate book (78% rated A & above), tread cautiously in SME and channelize retail to existing clientele; 3) strengthened liability muscle – core NR base, tapping HNIs, leveraging digital platform and fin-tech tie-ups. What gives confidence on improving return profile: 1) limited exposure to vulnerable sectors – can manage Covid disruption with worst case credit cost estimate of 2.7%; 2) opportunistically venturing into RoA-accretive segments (CV, PL/CC, MFI, etc), 3) better margin profile coupled with operating leverage benefit. Undoubtedly, fee income scale up is awaited. Valuations at 0.7x FY22E more than adequately captures pessimism and risk-reward is favorable. Reiterate BUY (more convincingly) with revised target price of Rs70 (earlier Rs65). Structural transition away from ‘typical old generation regional bank mindset’: It

revamped its business architecture: created separate business verticals, rolled out RM model in wholesale banking to capture end-to-end customer needs, integrated offering along the supply chain, 360-degree servicing points for retail network, navigated outside Kerala (network-2) - demonstrating encouraging results in most of these initiatives reflected in consistent rise in market segment across segments.

Granular liability franchise is so far under-appreciated: Retail deposits at >90%, cost of deposits at 5.4%, incremental peak FD rates closer to best-in-class and savings deposit rates at the lowest end at 2.5% - but still gaining deposit market share talks of its deposits franchise. Leveraging the brand and inherent geographical advantage, it has built granular deposit franchise focused on sticky non-resident base (~38% of total deposits). Incrementally it is deepening its presence with HNIs (currently forming 45% of CASA), actively chasing high value savings and at the same time targeting millennials through fin-tech tie-ups.

Asset mix - favorable in current cycle: Competitive deposit profile has helped it build better rated assets, following new private bank’s approach in scaling up the balance sheet - build better rated corporate book (78% rated A & above), tread cautiously in SME (mere 6% CAGR over FY18-20) and rising pie of retail skewed towards secured segments (mortgage contributes ~67% to total retail assets) and that too towards existing clientele. This coupled with lower exposure to vulnerable industries (at 5%) will help it navigate better through the crisis.

How effectively will it navigate current crisis – Besides above stated qualitative factors imbibing confidence, moratorium at ~24% (12th July’20) and ~11/12% adjusted for partial payments, is not unduly out of sync with similar profile banks. Even in the worst-case scenario building estimates for credit cost (at 2.7%), NIMs (30bps lower), fee income (20bps lower), the argument of networth erosion is not sustainable. In such circumstances, 0.7x FY22E BV seems factoring in lot of pessimism rending risk reward favorable. We, now more convincingly, reiterate our BUY.

INDIA

Research Analysts:

Renish Bhuva [email protected] +91 22 6637 7465 Kunal Shah [email protected] +91 22 6637 7572 Abhijit Tibrewal, CFA [email protected] +91 22 6637 7230

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Key charts Chart 1: Steady improvement in loan market share with balanced loan mix

Chart 2: Consistent improvement in deposit market share reflects FB’s strong liability franchise

1.061.07

1.12 1.121.13 1.13

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1.001.021.041.061.081.101.121.141.161.181.20

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Chart 3: Steady improvement in NR deposit base across cycles

Chart 4: Asset portfolio is well-diversified across sub-segments…

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Loan mix Segment-wise

Retail Agri Business BankingCommercial Banking Corporate business

Chart 5: …with improving market share in each retail product

Chart 6: Greater share of ‘A’ and above rated corporate book is likely to ensure better asset quality going ahead

4.3% 4.3% 4.6%5.2%

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Gold loan MFI

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Rating of Corporate Advances

A & above BBB >BBB rated

Note - >BBB including not rated exposures.

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Chart 7: Margin levers in place Chart 8: Superior asset quality performance across cycles

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Private Banks - GNPL % Federal Bank - GNPL %

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 1: Even in worst-case scenario, we do not foresee net-worth erosion Particulars FY20 No of shares BVPS Cumulative BVPS Core Banking Net-worth/ BV 1,40,554 1,993 70.5 Net NPLs 11,081 5.6 65.0 Adjusted Net-worth/BV 1,29,473 65.0 65.0 Credit cost (worst case) 25,391 12.7 52.2 NIM socialism 7,897 4.0 48.3 Wage revision/retirement benefit 0 0.0 48.3 Fee income 5,265 2.6 45.6 Operating profit (base case) 53,923 27.1 72.7

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 2: In a stressed scenario, we estimate 4.4% incremental stress and 2.7% credit cost (worst case)

(Rs mn) Exposure GNPLs GNPLs

% Incremental

stress Net Slippage LGD Provision Credit cost Overall loan portfolio 12,34,370

4.4% 54,308

33,855 2.74%

Corporate 4,95,420 10,390 2.1% 5.3% 26,406 70% 18,484 3.73% AAA

AA A 79% 2.0%

BBB 10% 10% BB & below 11% 25% Retail 3,79,080 6,950 1.8% 3.6% 13,501 50% 6,751 1.78%

- Home loans 1,82,010

3.0% 5,460 - Auto 31,340

5.0% 1,567

- LAP 70,090

4.0% 2,804 - Personal 15,510

3.0% 465

- Others 80,130

4.0% 3,205 Agri 1,36,450 5,860 4.3% 1.5% 2,047 50% 1,023 0.75%

Business Banking 1,05,120 6,600 6.3% 5.0% 5,256 50% 2,628 2.50% Commercial Banking 1,18,300 6,750 5.7% 6.0% 7,098 70% 4,969 4.20%

Note – We have assigned relatively lower delinquency rate in Agri as we assumes ~73% of Agri book (Rs100bn) is gold loan. Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 3: We arrive at 5.3% incremental stress in corporate book assuming 10%/25% PD in ‘BBB & below’ book

Particulars Rating PD Incremental stress A & above rated 79.0% 2.0% 1.6% BBB 10.0% 10.0% 1.0% >BBB 11.0% 25.0% 2.8% Total

5.3%

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

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Valuation Initiatives such as strengthening the risk management system, centralised process for loan sanctioning, exhaustive credit monitoring, expansion ex-Kerala, and intent to boost other income streams are some of the key takeaways from Mr. Srinivasan's (MD & CEO) latest strategy. These measures would not only help Federal Bank (FB) have better credit monitoring, but also improve its earnings profile in our view.

The stock is currently trading at 0.8x/0.7x P/ABV FY21E/22E respectively. We believe current valuation is not fully factoring-in FB’s favourable asset mix (well diversified across sub-segments), likely margin expansion (~70bps of deposit rate cut yet to flow in P&L as per our judgment) and even in worst-case scenario no risk of net-worth erosion. Further, we believe, even after adjusting for Covid-related uncertainties, FB will still deliver 0.9% RoA in FY22E. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs70/sh.

Chart 9: P/BV at 0.7x FY22E - Current valuation not fully capturing likely improvement in return ratios

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Source: Company data, I-Sec research

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Consistent improvement in credit market share; realigned business architecture driving dominance FB’s market share in systemic credit improved to 1.2% in Jun’20 from 1.06% in Mar’18. During FY18, it revamped its business architecture by creating separate verticals for key segments, viz.: 1) corporate & institutional banking, 2) commercial banking, 3) business banking, 4) rural & micro lending, and 5) retail. Further, it strategically planned to strengthen its position outside Kerala (network-2) and successfully demonstrated encouraging results in the initial stage.

Key Initiatives undertaken during revamping of business architecture –

Spilt of wholesale portfolio into – A) Large corporate and B) Commercial Banking in Q2FY18 with roll out of RM model to ensure meeting end-to-end needs of customers. By Q1FY20, it completed mapping of all commercial Banking customers with dedicated Relationship manager.

Set-up of dedicated vertical to scale up supply chain business.

Launch of state-of-the-art integrated digital transaction banking platform - Fed-e-Biz; steady increase in volumes indicates initial success in integrating Fed-e-Biz with customers and converting FB’s account into primary/preferred account.

Roll-out of doorstep digital Gold loan and digital platform named GoNoGo across the entire sales channel to ensure better TAT, bring down the cost of acquisition, and ensure a better digital experience

Entry into CV/CE segment in FY19.

Chart 10: Steady improvement in market share with balanced loan mix.

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1.001.021.041.061.081.101.121.141.161.181.20

Q4FY18Q1FY19Q2FY19Q3FY19Q4FY19Q1FY20Q2FY20Q3FY20Q4FY20Q1FY21

(%)

Market share - Credit

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Incremental credit market share is 1.5% as at Sep’19.

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Chart 11: While maintaining dominant position in Kerala with 11% market share as at Sep’19, FB is strategically ramping up its positioning in select locations

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FB Pvt Banks Overall

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Chart 12: Perfect blend of loan mix between wholesale – Retail; like Industry leaders

46% 46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 49% 49% 49% 50%

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Retail Wholesale

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Chart 13: Asset portfolio is well-diversified across sub-segments

27% 27% 27% 28% 28% 29% 30% 30% 31% 31%

10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11%9% 9% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9%

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Loan mix Segment-wise

Retail Agri Business Banking Commercial Banking Corporate business

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

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Chart 14: Revamped business architecture to ensure long-term growth and profitability sustainability

Retail - Personal Banking Business Banking Agri, Rural and Micro Banking

Corporate & Institutional Banking Commercial Banking

Catering to Retail, Small Business, Agri, Rural and Micro Banking Clients.

Leveraging Branch distribution, Relationship Managers, Digital, Fedfina, Fintechs and BCs to garner business.

Historical strength of neighborhood Banking with wide product suite

Branch as the 360 degree servicing point. Gramjeevan Branches functioning as a Financial Hub to rural India

Micro lending through tech driven BC arrangements and tie ups.

Catering to Commercial, Mid Market and CorporateClients

Leveraging Relationship Managers to garner business. Significant thrust given to leverage the relationships

to improve Salary Accounts, Current Accounts andFees

Visible presence in key geographies Integrated offerings along the supply chain to create

better value for SME clients

Business Structure

Retail Banking Wholesale Banking

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Segment-wise details

Wholesale banking: FB segregated its wholesale banking business into two separate verticals: a) corporate and institutional banking (~81% of wholesale loans), and b) commercial banking (~19% of wholesale loans). These two verticals were formed in Q2FY18 with rollout of a relationship management model to ensure meeting end-to-end needs of customers.

Currently, FB operates its wholesale banking verticals through nine dedicated CCSC with a total of 44 relationship managers and 127 clients.

Chart 15: FB continues to build on its expertise in wholesale banking… Group Penetration

Sectoral Expertise

Peer Bank Relationships

Deeper Geography

Mid Market Expansion

Mar

ket

Shar

eG

ains

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

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Chart 16: … with focus on deepening relationship with existing customer base

Vendor

Group Companies

• Loans• Credit Substitute• Bespoke Solutions• FCY

• Non Fund Based• Trade Credit• Fx & Derivatives

• Collections• Payments• Liability Products

• ECM/DCM/M&A• Salary• Wealth• Insurance

Financing Trade & Treasury Transaction Banking

Advisory & Cross Sell

Dealer

Salary/ Key opinion Makers

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Chart 17: Calibrated growth in commercial banking amid deteriorating macro environment; FB cautiously expanded its corporate book mainly towards better-rated corporates

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Loan CAGR (FY18-20)

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Chart 18: Commercial Banking - Series of initiatives taken to strengthen customer relationships, increase wallet share and accelerate new customer acquisition

Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20

Technology enablers in place for new client acquisition focusing on Supply Chain financing.

Strengthened the RM force for deeper penetration in different markets.

Lateral hiring to fill talent gap and strengthen CB division

Initiated Retail Finance for medium and entry-level passenger car segments in 34 centres, through dealer relationships.

Significant increase in RM/ Sales training –100% mapping of accounts in Commercial Banking.

Formed dedicated vertical to handle & scale up Supply Chain Business

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

During Q2FY19, FB prudently initiated in-depth analysis of its commercial banking portfolio and exited accounts worth Rs7bn not fitting into its revised risk framework.

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Launch of state of the art integrated digital transaction banking platform, Fed-e-Biz

Chart 19: Transaction volumes on Fed-e-Biz platform

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Source: Company data, I-Sec research Retail Banking: FB segregated its retail banking business into three separate verticals: a) agri banking (~11% of total loans); b) business banking (~9% of total loans) – formed in early FY18 to focus exclusively on SME loans below Rs50mn; driven by traditional branches and relationship managers to deepen existing relationships and source new customers; and c) core retail (~31% of total loans).

Chart 20: Retail loan mix (as % of total loans)

13% 13% 13% 14% 14% 14% 14% 15% 15% 15%

5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6%2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3%0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%

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Retail loan mix

Housing Mortgage Auto Personal Others

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

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Chart 21: Renewed focus on select products backed by robust digital platform helped FB gain market share

15%

7%

25%22%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Housing Mortgage

Loan CAGR

FY15-17 FY18-20

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Chart 22: Improving market share in each retail product

4.3% 4.3% 4.6%5.2%

1.0% 1.3% 1.5%2.1%2.3% 2.4% 2.7%

0.1% 0.1% 0.5%

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%

FY17 FY18 FY19 Sep'19

Market share trend

Market share in Home loans (amongst Private Banks)Market share in Auto loans (amongst Private Banks)Market Share in Gold loan (%)Market Share in MFI (%)

Chart 23: While expanding retail portfolio, FB carefully calibrated the ratio of New-To-Bank customers

50%62% 65%

99%

50%38% 35%

1%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Home Loan LAP Auto Personal Loans

Customer profile

ETB NTB

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

During Q2FY19, FB deployed a state of the art technology for MFI loans. The technology is scalable for onboarding different BCs for different geographies in same quarter; it also introduced first of its kind, app-based doorstep gold loan facility in association with a fintech partner.

During Q3FY19, FB selected was by Kerala government to offer housing loans of its employees.

During Q2FY20, FB signed a dealer financing MoU with Maruti Suzuki (MSIL). MSIL has recognised FB as a preferred partner.

99% of personal loans are fully digital and approved in <10 seconds onboarding.

During Q1FY21, FB rolled out the digital platform named GoNoGo across the entire sales channel to ensure better TAT, bring down the cost of acquisition, and ensure a better digital experience.

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Chart 24: Digital Gold loan evolution

Q2FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21

Doorstep gold loan delivery model in partnership with a fintech partner extended to 5 cities.

Introduced first of its kind, app based door step Gold loan facility in association with Fintech partner

Ramped up further adding more centres and reached a run rate of Rs1bn per month.

Loan disbursement through Fintech enabled digital Gold and Micro lending platforms crossed Rs10bn

Gold Loans crossed Rs100bn milestone

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

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Pursuing newer revenue streams While in a few select segments (credit card and business banking), FB has already made inroads, CV/CE/MFIs are its relatively new ventures and the bank is planning to ramp them up going forward. It has already initiated several measures to ensure better risk-adjusted returns while scaling up these businesses.

MFI: Scalable and capital-efficient credit delivery using block chain ecosystem

Chart 25: Scalable and capital-efficient credit delivery using block chain ecosystem

Rational behind entering MFI space Flexibility to accommodate changing product and compliance norms

Highly scalable for expanding business through multiple BCs

Risk mitigation through cherry picking geographies and partners

Enables connect with strong regional players and seasoned customer base

Capital-efficient compared to MFI acquisition route

Higher RoA by leveraging operational efficiency

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Tapping opportunities in CV/CE business: Loanbook stands ~Rs6bn as on Mar’20 with good mix between new/old vehicles

Forayed into CV/CE business in late FY19

Strategically selected two states offering high-growth opportunities, viz. Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra; FB will slowly scale up in other geographies.

Built a strong 25-member team with experience in the same customer profile for business origination, credit underwriting and collection.

Currently concentrating more on lending to purchase of new vehicles with plans to enter into other segments in the coming years.

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Strengthening liability muscle Federal Bank (FB), over the years, has built a strong and granular liability franchise with retail deposits contributing >90% of total deposit base. On the back of its inherent geographical advantage of being headquartered in Kerala (a major recipient of foreign remittances), FB has leveraged its strong brand image and built a sticky NR deposit base, which currently contributes 38% to total deposit base. FB’s CASA ratio at 31% is highest amongst mid-sized banks. Most importantly, FB does not offer higher differentiated rates to mobilise SAs as reflected in the fact that the rate it offers is one of the lowest at 2.5% as at July’20.

It remained committed in strengthening its liability franchise and initiated several strategic measures over past of couple years – i) securing current account relationship with all credit clients, ii) strengthened RM force to deepen existing liability relationships, iii) tied-up with MoneyGram for fast & cost effective remittances, iv) roll-out of Celesta savings account to deepen HNI relationship - share of CASA from HNI segment improved to 45.3%, v) thrust on securing salary account of large corporates – resulted in 45% increase in SA balance,

Chart 26: … enabled FB to improve its deposit market share consistently

0.950.97

1.001.03 1.03

1.051.07

1.09 1.09 1.10

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

Q4FY18Q1FY19Q2FY19Q3FY19Q4FY19Q1FY20Q2FY20Q3FY20Q4FY20Q1FY21

(%)

Market share - Deposits

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

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Chart 27: Strategic initiatives taken over the past couple of years…

Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q4FY20

Empanelled in 15 states, catering to 200 govtentities & select PSUs in meeting their Banking needs.

Empanelled in 13 states, catering to 156 government entities & select PSUs in meeting their Banking needs

Strengthened the RM force for deeper penetration in different markets.

Empanelled in 15 states, catering to 210 Government entities & select PSUs in meeting their Banking needs.

Current Account Capability reinforced through packaged offering of Cash Management, Supply Chain Management services, Dealer-vendor management facilities etc and also by securing current account relationship of all credit clients

Empanelled in 16 states, catering to 252 Government entities & select PSUs in meeting their Banking needs.

CA focus by 100% coverage of existing accounts/ exploring opportunities for escrow accounts-Trust and retention/ RERA etc

First Bank in the country to launch online Demat account opening through Net banking. Healthy growth in corporate CASA to cross Rs10bn– YTD growth of 64% over PY and 12.7% QoQ growth

Thrust on onboarding salary accounts of large corporates, with over 60 new mandates, with focus on higher AMBs resulting in 45% increase in SB Salary account balances

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Other Initiatives

Increased focus on tapping HNI segment: As a result, the share of CASA from HNI segment to total CASA improved to 45.3% in FY20 vs 40.7% in FY19. Total HNI customer base increased to ~0.2mn in FY20 (up 11% YoY). To deepen relationship with HNIs, FB launched in Nov’19 its flagship savings scheme for HNIs – Celesta savings account (for both residents and NRs). This account is clubbed with the premium debit card variant Celesta and offers a host of exclusive offerings like airport pickup and drop, exclusive lifestyle offerings, concierge services, exclusive relationship managers for financial and wealth management advisory, etc. Since the launch, it gained much popularity adding >1,100 accounts with a balance of ~Rs5bn in HNI portfolio.

Continued to focus on-boarding new relationships through a dedicated team of relationship managers, ensuring acquisition of high-value savings accounts and corporate salary accounts including salary accounts of state and Central government entities. FB is also leveraging its commercial / institutional banking clients’ employee salary account in a meaningful way.

Focusing on more tie-ups with fintech partners via API and open banking programmes paving the way for more opportunities and access to the millennial segment with special thrust on salaried clients. These projects are scheduled to go live in FY21.

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Chart 28: Leveraging the power of digital platform

Account opening solution powered by e-KYC.

Built on 3 pillars JanDhan, Aadhar, Mobile(JAM).

A relationship created in 8 minutes & 6 accounts opened per minute

Instant gratification though active Debit card, chequebook, Mobile banking, internet banking and UPI.

92% of accounts opened through digital channels.

Leveraging the power of JAM

Source: Company data, I-Sec research Chart 29: Retail deposits contribute 90% to total deposit base (one of the highest amongst private sector banks)

98%

94% 94%

91%90%

131%143%

162% 164%185%

0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

Retail Deposit

Share of Retail Deposits (%) LCR (%)

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Chart 30: Steady improvement in NR deposit base across cycles

74 83112

153207

259326

386451

532

607

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

(Rs

bn)

NRI deposit

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

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Chart 31: NR-specific initiatives taken by FB

Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q4FY20

Launched digital platfrom helping NRIs to send money through Exchange houses and Banks using an easy to remember Virtual Payment Address (VPA) of the beneficiary . Entered into strategic partnership with Ripple Inc, a block chain supported global remittance company, for cross border remittances.

On NR front, it started exploring newer geographies like Kenya, Mozambique and Botswana.

OCR based Tablet Banking introduced for NRI customers in GCC to facilitate Instant Account Opening

On NR front, started cost effective and fast remittances arrangements from Japan, Hong Kong & Saudi Arabia. Remittances through Federal Bank increased to 15.7%.

Tied up with MoneyGram for cost effective, fast and easy rupee remittance directly into the bank account

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Chart 32: Steady improvement in NR-related market share

8.0%9.0%10.0%11.0%12.0%13.0%14.0%15.0%16.0%17.0%

3.0%3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 2HFY20

Market share trend

Market Share in NR business (LHS)

Market share in Inward Remittances (RHS)

Source: Company data, I-Sec research FB’s sticky deposit customer base gives flexibility in managing interest rate risk much better than peers. This is reflected in the fact that, over the past one year, it cut 1-year MCLR rate by only 80bps while it cut peak TD rate by 150bps. Further, FB was the first private sector bank to link SA rate to repo rate thereby immediately managing interest rate movement. Interest saving in FY21E will strengthen FB’s P&L enough to absorb any higher than expected credit cost and repo-linked savings deposit rate to help sustain margins at the current level of 3%.

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Chart 33: Strong liability franchise – FB’s peak TD rate is at par with industry leaders

6.5 7.0 7.0 6.8 7.1 8.0 6.8

5.4 5.5 5.5 5.1

5.5

7.0

5.8

110

150 150

170 160

105 100

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

SBI Axis HDBK Kotak Federal DCB CUBK

bps

%

Sep-19 Jul-20 Diff

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Chart 34: Saving deposit mobilization remained robust at 7% QoQ growth - despite it not offering differentiated SA rates

2.5 2.7 3.0/3.5 3.0/3.53.5/4.0

7.3

5.05.5

4.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.04.0

5.0

6.07.0

8.0

Federal SBI Axis HDBK Kotak

(%)

Saving Account Rate & QoQ growth in Q1FY21

SA rate Q1FY21 ( SA growth QoQ)

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Chart 35: With increasing credit risk, FB has been conservative in cutting lending rates

8.2 8.5 8.5 9.6 8.8 10.1 9.0

7.0 7.7 7.5

9.1

7.6

9.5

8.2 115

80

100

50

115

61

80

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

SBI Axis HDBK IIB Kotak Bandhan Federal

bps

%

Sep-19 Jul-20 Diff

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

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Chart 36: FB best placed to improve margins in the short term

115

80 100

115

80

110

150 150 170

160

- 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180

SBI Axis HDBK Kotak Federal

1 Yr MCLR rate bps (cut during Sep'19 to July'20)

Peak TD rates bps (cut during Sep'19 to July'20)

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

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Fee income progression, post-realigned process, has been encouraging – but still lagging industry leaders While revamping its business architecture, FB strategically conducted in-depth analysis of each revenue stream for core fee income. Accordingly, to leverage its strong NR and liability customer base it initiated several measures - collaboration with TATA AIG & HDFC Ergo for General Insurance, dedicated call center for cross-selling products, Investment managers across all geographies to leverage Ultra HNI customer base etc. to boost non-interest income. Even during framing new policies in each of the business verticals, ‘cross sell & fee income’ remained at the core of business strategy, which reflects in the measures taken by FB over the past couple of years.

Chart 37: Strategic initiatives taken over past one year

Q3FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q4FY20

New partnerships in General Insurance with Tata AIG and HDFC Ergo to augment fee income

Opened new Call Centre for Cross Selling products like Credit Card, Insurance and to extend exclusive support to Ultra HNI and NR Customers.

Assigned dedicated Investment Relationship Managers across all geographies to cater to the investment needs of ultra HNIs

First Bank in the country to launch online Demataccount opening through Net banking.

launch an online Mutual Fund platform by the name ‘InstaInvest’,

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 4: Fee income breakup – most revenue streams showing encouraging trend

Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20

Cards 520 520 584 570 640 700 Third-party 230 230 124 240 150 270 Banking commi & exchange 210 360 320 330 320 360 Processing fees 500 500 490 610 630 560 Service charge 590 700 750 830 850 760 Forex 740 540 430 640 560 760 Core Fee Income 2,790 2,850 2,698 3,220 3,150 3,410 Treasury 550 740 910 820 650 3,690 Recovery in w/offs a/cs 110 530 310 170 270 10 Total Non-interest income 3,450 4,120 3,918 4,210 4,070 7,110

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

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Chart 38: Strategic initiatives yielding positive outcome – but still scope for further improvement

0.6%

0.7%0.7%

0.7%

0.7%

0.8%

0.7%0.8%

0.5%

0.6%

0.6%

0.7%

0.7%

0.8%

0.8%

Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20

Core fee income (% of assets)

Note - Core fee income is calculated as ex-Treasury, recovery in w/off accounts. Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Chart 39: Steady improvement in debit card spends ensuring sustainable card fee income

4.23.6

4.34.7 4.8 4.8

5.2 5.0 5.05.5 5.5

6.26.05.3

6.36.9

7.3 7.17.8

8.3 8.2 8.27.8

9.2

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Jan Feb March April May June July August Sep Oct Nov Dec

Debit {POS+E-Comm) Spends Growth (Rs bn)

2018 2019

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

From Q2FY19 onwards, FB accelerated the pace of its presence in e-commerce space at regular intervals with offers on shopping, travel, dining, entertainment, etc. to enhance brand association. In Q2FY20, FB introduced EMI facility for debit card purchases through POS terminals in association with Pinelabs. In Q1FY21, FB partnered with Amazon to offer debit card EMI facility to customers.

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Superior asset quality performance – backed by better risk management and underwriting It clearly stands out with peak GNPL ratio touching only 3% between FY16-FY19 (period of corporate NPA cycle) vs 4% for private sector banks – and the same reflects management prudence in staying away from many stressed groups.

We believe FB is well positioned to tackle the current challenges with minimal impact on its asset quality given that its retail+SME portfolio is mostly secured while ~77% of corporate portfolio is rated ‘A’ & above.

Chart 40: Superior asset quality performance across cycles

2.8

4.1 4.03.7

4.2

2.8

2.3

3.0 2.9 2.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

Private Banks - GNPL % Federal Bank - GNPL %

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

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Chart 41: Strong risk management

Rigour in Monitoring(Proactive and Intensive)

Automated Internal Tools

Loan Management System (LMS) –Auto alerts

Dashboard Customer 360 D view

External Sources/Platform

Save Risk/ Probe42 Watch out investors CRISIL Quantix Media Alerts and other sources

Vigorous Follow-up

Remedial Management

Early Detection

Debulking/ derisking

Exit & Reduction in time

Could derisk/exit many potential Bad Loans Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Chart 42: Greater share of ‘A’ and above rated corporate book is likely to ensure better asset quality going ahead

42%65% 71% 76% 73% 78%

15%

7%19% 15%

11%11%

43%28%

10% 9% 16% 11%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

Rating of Corporate Advances

A & above BBB >BBB rated

Source: Company data, I-Sec research Note - >BBB including not rated exposures.

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Credit Monitoring and Collection Automated Early Warning Signal (EWS) reports

Comparison of actual behaviour of the customer visa-a-vis envisaged earlier

Dedicated monitoring team for quick corrective measures

Product-wise, bucket-wise collection

Chart 43: Portfolio under moratorium in retail and corporate largely in line with private sector banks, while in CB/BB appears higher

34%

20%

31%38%

79%

53%

20%

31% 35%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Retail BB CB Corporate Agri Total

Portfolio under Moratorium (by value)

April'20 - Pvt Banks May'20 - Federal bank

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

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Financial summary Table 5: Profit and loss statement (Rs mn, year ending March 31)

FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Interest Income 1,14,190 1,32,108 1,42,853 1,60,354 Interest Expense 72,427 85,619 94,629 1,05,295 Net Interest Income 41,764 46,489 48,224 55,058 % NII Growth 16.6 11.3 3.7 14.2 Treasury Income 2,290 6,070 4,249 3,824 Non-interest income 13,510 19,314 18,928 21,578 Net Revenue 55,274 65,803 67,152 76,636 Employees Expenses 13,778 17,724 17,560 19,316 Other Op. Expenses 13,865 16,033 16,674 18,341 Operating Profit 27,631 32,047 32,919 38,979 % OP Growth 20.6 16.0 2.7 18.4 Tax 6,634 4,898 3,109 5,938 Total Provisions 8,559 11,722 20,482 15,225 Net Profit 12,439 15,428 9,327 17,815 % PAT Growth 41.5 24.0 (39.5) 91.0 Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 6: Balance sheet (Rs mn, year ending March 31)

FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E Capital 3,970 3,985 3,985 3,985 Reserves and Surplus 1,28,760 1,41,191 1,50,333 1,66,469 Deposits 13,49,543 15,22,901 16,75,191 19,18,094 Borrowings 77,813 1,03,724 77,793 89,462 Other Liabilities & Provisions 33,313 34,579 36,308 38,124 Total liabilities 15,93,400 18,06,381 19,43,611 22,16,134 Cash & Balances with RBI 64,192 61,749 87,649 90,340 Bal. with banks/ call money 36,476 63,997 49,084 48,181 Investment 3,18,245 3,58,927 3,85,294 4,12,390 Loans and advances 11,02,230 12,22,679 13,20,493 15,44,977 Fixed Assets 4,720 4,800 5,623 6,004 Other Assets 67,537 94,229 95,468 1,14,242 Total assets 15,93,400 18,06,381 19,43,611 22,16,134 Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 7: Key ratios (Year ending March 31)

FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Per Share Data Book value per share (INR) 67.0 72.8 77.4 85.5 Adj. BVPS (INR) 59.2 64.9 67.6 76.1 Price/Book value 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 Price/ Adj. Book value 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 EPS(INR) 6.3 7.8 4.7 8.9 P/E Ratio 8.7 7.1 11.8 6.2 DPS 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Asset Quality Gross NPA (Rs mn) 32,607 35,308 57,110 54,334 Gross NPA (%) 2.92 2.84 4.32 3.52 Net NPA (Rs mn) 16,262 16,072 28,084 26,927 Net NPA (%) 1.48 1.31 2.13 1.74 % coverage of NPA 50.1 54.5 50.8 50.4 Delinquencies (%) 1.6 1.6 3.0 1.6 Capital Adequacy Ratio RWA (Rs mn) 9,37,700 10,57,860 11,42,489 13,36,712 Tier I (%) 13.4 13.3 12.9 11.8 Tier II (%) 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 Total CAR (%) 13.9 14.3 14.0 12.8 Business Ratios Credit / Deposit (%) 81.7 80.3 78.8 80.5 Investment / Deposit (%) 23.6 23.6 23.0 21.5 CASA (%) 32.4 31.8 32.1 32.4 RoaA (%) 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.9 Core RoE (%) 9.8 11.1 6.2 11.0 Earnings Ratios Interest Inc. / Avg.assets (%) 7.7 7.8 7.6 7.7 Interest Exp./ Avg. assets (%) 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 NIM (%) 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 Int. exp/ Int earned (%) 63.4 64.8 66.2 65.7 Oth. Inc./ Tot. Inc. (%) 24.4 29.4 28.2 28.2 Staff exp/Total opt. exp (%) 49.8 52.5 51.3 51.3 Cost/ Income Ratio (%) 50.0 51.3 51.0 49.1 Prov./ Operating Profit (%) 31.0 36.6 62.2 39.1 Loan loss prov./Avg. loans (bps) 84.7 100.8 161.1 106.3 Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 8: RoA tree (%, year ending March 31)

FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Interest income/Assets 7.7 7.8 7.6 7.7 Interest expenses/Assets 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 Net interest income/Assets 2.8 2.73 2.57 2.65 Treasury income/Assets 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 Other Inc. from operations/Assets 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 Total income/Assets 3.7 3.9 3.6 3.7 Total Exp./Assets 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 Operating profit/Assets 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 Tax/Assets 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 Loan loss provisions/Assets 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.7 Net profit/Assets 0.8 0.91 0.50 0.86 Source: Company data, I-Sec research

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Inc. (Singapore branch) in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. The contact details of ICICI Securities, Inc. (Singapore branch) are

as follows: Address: 10 Collyer Quay, #40-92 Ocean Financial Tower, Singapore - 049315, Tel: +65 6232 2451 and email: [email protected],

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reports and no charges are levied for providing research reports to such investors."

New I-Sec investment ratings (all ratings based on absolute return; All ratings and target price refers to 12-month performance horizon, unless mentioned otherwise)

BUY: >15% return; ADD: 5% to 15% return; HOLD: Negative 5% to Positive 5% return; REDUCE: Negative 5% to Negative 15% return; SELL: < negative 15% return

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