February 6, 2013 - Institut Henri Poincaré – Paris - France
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Transcript of February 6, 2013 - Institut Henri Poincaré – Paris - France
February 6, 2013 - Institut Henri Poincaré – Paris - France
Mathematics of Bio-Economics (MABIES)
Quantitative tools for the sustainable recoveryof the hake (Merluccius Gayi Gayi) in the Regionof Valparaiso, Chile
Project started at August, 2011Duration 1.5 yearCurrent Stage Online tool on final development stageProject website www.recuperemoslamerluza.clFinancial support Regional Government (GoRe) Valparaiso; Program for the Innovation & Competitiveness (FIC)
This project has been carried by a multidisciplinary team and has been leading by Department of Mathematics, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Chile.
ResearchTeam
Multidisciplinary Group
Marine Biologists
Engineers
Applied Mathematicians
Expert on social behavior
Journalist
PEDROGAJARDO
HÉCTORRAMÍREZ
ALEJANDROZULETA
DARÍORIVAS
RENZOTASCHERI
MAXIMILIANOOLIVARES
RESEARCHER ONMATHEMATICALMODELLINGPROJECT DIRECTOR
RESEARCHER ON FISHERIESMANAGEMENT
RESEARCHER ONFISHERIES STOCKASSESMENT
MARINEBIOLOGIST
MATHEMATICALENGINEERINGSTUDENT
COLLABORATORSGILDA MEDINA | JOURNALISTHÉCTOR TRUJILLO | SOFTSYSTEMS ANALYSIS GROUP (VENEZUELA)ANGGELO URSO | COMPUTER ENGINEERING
RESEARCHER ONMATHEMATICALMODELLINGADJOINT DIRECTOR
Oldest and most important demersal fishery in Chile
Main fishery resource of the Region of Valparaiso
HakeFishery
In the last decade, the South Pacific Hake's (Merluccius Gayi Gayi) fishery has been very damaged
SOME DISCUSSED EXPLAINATIONS
OVEREXPLOITATION APPARITION OF NEW PREDATORS
GIANTSQUID
HakeFishery
This situation has led to a reduction of landings and, consequently, to a reduction of the artisan fleet in the Region of Valparaiso (Chile)
Landings (tonnes) of hake. The red line shows the annual global catch quota established and approved by the CNP since 1992.
Source: Technical Report (R.Pesq.) N°117/2011
HakeFishery
The aim of this project is to provide quantitative tools to propose recovery strategies for this fishery
Stakeholders
Stakeholders
Yields Landings / catches
Stakeholders
Yields
Prevention
Landings / catches SSB SpawningStock Biomass
Stakeholders
Yields Landings / catches
Prevention
SSB SpawningStock Biomass
SocialRequirement
Level of yields required by the local community
Landings / catches SSB SpawningStock Biomass
Stakeholders
Level of yields required by the local community
Yields
SocialRequirement
Prevention
Landings / catches SSB SpawningStock Biomass
Stakeholders
YieldsPrevention
SocialRequirement
Recovery Plan Proposal
Level of yields required by the local community
Landings / catches SSB SpawningStock Biomass
Stakeholders
YieldsPrevention
BIOLOGICAL INDICATORS Spawning Stock Biomass Total Biomass
SocialRequirement
Recovery Plan Proposal
Level of yields required by the local community
Landings / catches SSB SpawningStock Biomass
Stakeholders
YieldsPrevention
BIOLOGICAL INDICATORS Spawning Stock Biomass Total Biomass
ECONOMICAL INDICATORS Landings Economical return of the fleets
SocialRequirement
Recovery Plan Proposal
Level of yields required by the local community
Landings / catches SSB SpawningStock Biomass
Stakeholders
YieldsPrevention
BIOLOGICAL INDICATORS Spawning Stock Biomass Total Biomass
ECONOMICAL INDICATORS Landings Economical return of the fleets
The plan will be optimal in some predefined sense
SocialRequirement
Recovery Plan Proposal
Level of yields required by the local community
Stakeholders
Meetings with stakeholders
Meetings with stakeholders
Stakeholders
To introduce the project To obtain feedback
Meetings with stakeholders
Stakeholders
To introduce the project To obtain feedback
Bottom-up relation with the different actors involved in the fishery management
Stakeholders
3 Stages
Visiting local fishing baysStage I
Interviews with stakeholders in theRegion of Valparaiso
Stage II
“Identifying the main problems for the recovery of hake”
Stage III WORKSHOP
Stakeholders
3 Stages
Visiting local fishing baysStage I
Interviews with stakeholders in the Region of Valparaiso
Stage II
“Identifying the main problems for the recovery of hake”
Stage III WORKSHOP
Stakeholders
3 Stages
Visiting local fishing baysStage I
Interviews with stakeholders in theRegion of Valparaiso
Stage II
“Identifying the main problems for the recovery of hake”
Stage III WORKSHOP
Eduardo Quiroz“Portales”
Miguel Ángel Hernández“Puertecito”
Gabriel Valenzuela“El Membrillo”
Valparaíso
Valparaíso
San Antonio
Stakeholders
3 Stages
Visiting local fishing baysStage I
Interviews with stakeholders in theRegion of Valparaiso
Stage II
“Identifying the main problems for the recovery of hake”
Stage III WORKSHOP
Workshop “Identifying the main problems for the recovery of hake”
Some key macroproblems
The State, the Academy, Civil Society and Business (Industrial-Artisan Fisheries) operating as bubbles
From interviews and email consults to different stakeholders (in the Region of Valparaiso), were identified 20 ‘macroproblems’
There is no a joint sociopolitical vision for theexploitation of the hake fishery
THEORY
WORKSHOPS &STAKEHOLDERS
RESEARCHTEAM
FISHERIES STOCK
ASSESSMENT
WEBWAREWEB APPLICATION
OPEN ACCESS
Technological Transfer
WEBWAREWEB APPLICATION
OPEN ACCESS
THEORY
WORKSHOPS &STAKEHOLDERS
RESEARCHTEAM
FISHERIES STOCK
ASSESSMENT
Technological Transfer
Technological Transfer
THEORY
WORKSHOPS &STAKEHOLDERS
RESEARCHTEAM
FISHERIES STOCK
ASSESSMENT
WEBWAREWEB APPLICATION
OPEN ACCESS
TheoryBASIC IDEAS
TheoryBASIC IDEAS
FISHERIES DATAESTIMATION
MEANWEIGHT + OTHERS
ABUNDANCEESTIMATION
TheoryBASIC IDEAS
FISHERIES DATAESTIMATION
MEANWEIGHT + OTHERS
ABUNDANCEESTIMATION
N ABUNDANCE VECTOROR STATE
TheoryBASIC IDEAS
INITIAL STATEN0
TheoryBASIC IDEAS
Y
t
N0
Yields | Landings | Catches
[kto
nnes
]
[years]
FROM
t 0
Yields from some strategy
…INITIAL STATEN0
TheoryBASIC IDEAS
Y
t
N0
[kto
nnes
]
[years]
FROM
t 0
… ymin
INITIAL STATEN0
We focus on minimal sustainable value for yield
Yields | Landings | Catches
ymin
TheoryBASIC IDEAS
N0
FROM
INITIAL STATEN0
We seek strategies which ensures instead of
…
Y
t
ymin[kto
nnes
]
[years]
N0
FROM
…
Y
t
ymin[kto
nnes
][years]
ymin
as minimal sustainable value for yield
ymin
By modifying the exploitation strategy
ymin
TheoryBASIC IDEAS
INITIAL STATEN0
ymin
ymin?
What is the maximum possible value for ymin?
…
Y
t
ymin[kto
nnes
]
[years]
yminMm
ymin
N0
FROM
Yields | Landings | Catches
TheoryBASIC IDEAS
INITIAL STATEN0
N0
FROM
MmWe can use this value to propose a recovery plan
Mm
ymin
Yields | Landings | Catches
TheoryBASIC IDEAS
INITIAL STATEN0
N0
FROM
Mm
Recovery Problem
MmMaximum possible value for ymin
TheoryBASIC IDEAS
INITIAL STATEN0
N0
FROM
Mm
Mm Maximum possible value for ymin
REQ
Recovery Problem
REQSocial required level for yield
TheoryBASIC IDEAS
INITIAL STATEN0
N0
FROM
Mm
Mm Maximum possible value for ymin
REQ Social required level for yield
REQ
Recovery Problem
What strategy can be used to pass from N0 to a “healthy” fishery N(T)?
N0 N(T)
TheoryBASIC IDEAS
INITIAL STATEN0
N(T)FROM
Mm
REQ
Recovery Problem
Mm Maximum possible value for ymin
REQ Social required level for yield N0 N(T)What strategy can be used to pass from N0 to a “healthy” fishery N(T)?
TheoryBASIC IDEAS
INITIAL STATEN0
N(T)FROM
Mm
Mm Maximum possible value for ymin
REQ Social required level for yield
REQ
Recovery Problem
What strategy can be used to pass from N0 to a “healthy” fishery N(T)?
N0 N(T)
TheoryBASIC IDEAS
Mm Maximum possible value for ymin
REQ Social required level for yield
RECOVERYPLAN
REQ REQ
Mm
Mm
T yearsConstant Total Allowable
Catches (Yields)
N(T)N0
Recovery Problem
What strategy can be used to pass from N0 to a “healthy” fishery N(T)?
N0 N(T)
Mm Maximum possible value for ymin
REQ Social required level for yield SSB Mínimum value for SSB according Mm SSBmin Required SSB prevention level
TheoryBASIC IDEAS
REQ REQ
Mm
Mm
N(T)N0
Recovery Problem
SSB
SSB
RECOVERYPLANT yearsConstant TAC (Yields)
SSBmin
SSBmin
What strategy can be used to pass from N0 to a “healthy” fishery N(T)?
N0 N(T)
TheoryBASIC IDEAS
RECOVERYPLAN
REQ REQ
Mm
Mm
T yearsConstant TAC (Yields)
N(T)N0
Recovery Problem
SSB
SSB
TRADEOFF:COST= REQ-TAC
OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM:WHAT IS THE RECOVERYPLAN WITH MINIMAL COST?
SSBmin
SSBmin
Mm Maximum possible value for ymin
REQ Social required level for yield SSB Mínimum value for SSB according Mm SSBmin Required SSB prevention level
What strategy can be used to pass from N0 to a “healthy” fishery N(T)?
N0 N(T)
[ Dynamics and Optimization Problem]
Technological Transfer
THEORY
WORKSHOPS &STAKEHOLDERS
RESEARCHTEAM
FISHERIES STOCK
ASSESSMENT
WEBWAREWEB APPLICATION
OPEN ACCESS
Web Application
Recruitment
Natural mortality
Fishing mortality
Selectivity
Initial Abundance Vector
Web Application
www.recuperemoslamerluza.cl
Para recuperar su contraseña ingresa aquí
Login:
Contraseña:
Enviar Registrar
Iniciar Sesión
→ Report generator→ Access to previous consults → Workshops information and results
UserProfile
Recovery PlanAnalysis under conditions entered by user
Web Application
The user selects the year to start analysis→ The application uses the respective estimated
abundance vector TOTAL BIOMASS LEVEL COMPARISON FROM ESTIMATED ABUNDANCE VECTORS
2011N0
Error on estimation→ The user can select an error level on estimated
abundance vector
0%e N0-10%-5%0%5%10%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Natural mortality
Initial Abundance Vector Selectivity
User Requirements
Recruitment
Web Application
The user selects the year to start analysis→ The application uses the respective estimated
abundance vector
2002N0
Error on estimation→ The user can select an error level on estimated
abundance vector
-10%e N0-10%-5%0%5%10%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
TOTAL BIOMASS LEVEL COMPARISON FROM ESTIMATED ABUNDANCE VECTORS
Natural mortality
Initial Abundance Vector Selectivity
User Requirements
Recruitment
Web Application
The user selects a population ‘recruitment level’ (a believe about the impact of the recruits)
→ The application uses the steepness factor on a Beverton-Holt stock recruitment relationship
Recruitment level MEDIUM
HIGHMEDIUMLOW
[k*recruits]
SSB [ktonnes]
SPAWNING STOCK BIOMASS VS NUMBER OF RECRUITS
HIGHMEDIUM
LOW
HIGH
MEDIUMLOW
[ Dynamic Function]
Natural mortality
Initial Abundance Vector Selectivity
User Requirements
Recruitment
Web Application
The user selects an exploitation pattern
→ From database or logisitic curve
Exploitation pattern from database Exploitation pattern from logistic curve
EXPLOITATION PATTERN
SELE
CTIV
ITY
AGE
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1.0
0.0
a50% 8
11a95%
EXPLOITATION PATTERN
SELE
CTIV
ITY
AGE
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1.0
0.0
0.95
0.50
Natural mortality
Initial Abundance Vector Selectivity
User Requirements
Recruitment
Web Application
Natural mortality
Initial Abundance Vector Selectivity
User Requirements
Recruitment
Natural Mortality
Without Giant Squid (M = 0.33)
With Giant Squid (M = 0.63)
Other
M
The user enters a natural mortality value depending on the apparition of predators (Giant Squid)
[ Dynamic Function]
Web Application
ATTENTIONUnder actual assumptions it is not possible to take a sustainable yield greater than 32180 [tonnes] or a prevention level for SSB greater than 306650 [tonnes].
To consider, REQ ≤ 32180 [tonnes] SSBmin ≤ 306650 [tonnes]
Social required level for yield [tonnes]
Required SSB prevention level [tonnes]
User Requirements
Recovery Plan Analysis Before the user enters data, the application shows
thresholds for the user requirements, based on the scenario formulated from previous stages
User Requirements
If the requirements are compatible, the application can start with the recovery plan analysis.
Web Application
RECOVERY PLAN ANALYSIS
Under actual assumptions, every recovery plan evaluated needs not less than 2 years of implementation.
ATTENTIONUnder actual assumptions it is not possible to take a sustainable yield greater than 32180 [tonnes] or a prevention level for SSB greater than 306650 [tonnes].
To consider, REQ ≤ 32180 [tonnes] SSBmin ≤ 306650 [tonnes]
Social required level for yield 30000 [tonnes]
Required SSB prevention level [tonnes]116000
User Requirements
User Requirements
Recovery Plan Analysis
Web Application Recovery Plan
Recovery Plan Proposal The analysis suggest to consider a TAC of
23.6 [ktonnes] during 4 [years]
to recover the fishery.
This alternative minimize the cost with a 6.4 [ktonnes] tradeoff per year.
This leads to a total cost of 25.6 [ktonnes] during the entire period (4 years).
Y
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
30.0 [ktonnes] 23.6 [ktonnes]
Sustainable Fishery
SSB
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
116.0 [ktonnes]
YIELDS/LANDINGS PER YEAR
RESPECTIVE SPAWNING STOCK BIOMASS LEVELS PER YEAR
Recovery Plan
TAC associated with the minimal cost recovery plan
Landings for ‘healthy fishery’ equal to REQ
Projection with a constant landing level equal to REQ
Social required level for yield by user (REQ)
Required SSB prevention level by user (SSBmin)
Recovery Plan Proposal Effects
Web Application
Dissatisfaction level (Total costs associated)
Social required level for yield by user (REQ)
TAC associated withthe respective recovery plan
TAC associated withthe minimal cost recovery plan
POSSIBLE RECOVERY PLANS
Implementation years to recovery
30.0 [ktonnes]
23.6 [ktonnes]
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Recovery Plan
Alternative Recovery Plans
Transfering …
Our web application can be used freely
However, this version has some limitations that can be improved
together with the stakeholders if needed
We expect this tool can be useful for artisan fishermen
www.recuperemoslamerluza.clMore details about the project in
MABIES – IHP - 2013
Quantitative tools for the sustainable recoveryof the hake (Merluccius Gayi Gayi) in the Regionof Valparaiso, Chile
Thanks!
[ Natural Mortality]
Theory Dynamic function andOptimization Problem
DIFFERENCE EQUATION
BASIC IDEAS
OPTIMIZATIONPROBLEM
DYNAMIC FUNCTION
: Discount factor
[ Recruitment][ Recovery Problem]