February 4, 2013 ERCOT Public ERCOT Update to CMWG NPRR463 and CARD Distribution Matt Mereness ERCOT...

February 4, 2013

ERCOT Public

ERCOT Update to CMWGNPRR463 and CARD Distribution

Matt MerenessERCOT Manager Day-Ahead Market and CRR Auction

2

Outline of CMWG Discussion

• CRR Rolling Auction update (risks and issues)– Reminder of TAC approved calendar and key dates – Reminder of rolling-auction mechanics for implementation – Potential over-subscription of Sequence 1 (60%) due to scaling

changes– Transaction bid limits to be considered

• CARD Distribution consideration

ERCOT PublicFebruary, 2013

3 ERCOT PublicFeb 2013

NPRR463 “CRR Auction Structure Enhancements” Board Approved June 2012

A.K.A. 6-month Rolling Auction or Long-Term Auction Sequence

Milestones and Key Dates- Internal

- September development of Nexant scope/requirements - Oct/Nov focus on Integration issues/scope- October FTE hired to support rolling auction started- December 19 project moved into Execution- Internal testing Jan/Feb/Mar (FAT and iTest)

- External- Dec 31 ERCOT released draft CRR Calendar inclusive NPRR463 Long-Term Auction- WMS reviewed CRR Calendar (Jan 9th)- unanimously approved two changes:

- Deferral/Suspension of auction sequences during December holidays- Remove overlapping month/long-term bid windows with earlier monthly auction

- TAC approval of CRR Calendar (today)- No market-facing trials are currently planned but will host Q&A webex/calls (late March)- Review of Bid Transaction Limits in February/March (CMWG/WMS)- TAC approval of Bid Transaction Limits (April 4 meeting) - Go-Live April (Models post April 2, Auction Notice post April 10, Credit Lock April 29)

Reminder of Rolling Auction Transition


Current Auction Structure - 1x/Year

OnPeak WkDay

OffPeak

OnPeakWkEnd

OnPeak WkDay

OffPeak

OnPeakWkEnd

In 4th Quarter of each year, sell next 2 years of CRRs at monthly granularity in an annual 12-month optimization - Year 1 on 55% Model - Year 2 on 15% Model - Optimize each time-of-use across multi-period months for annual - Monthly auction is 90% and optimize across 3 times of use


2013 Auction Structure - 2x/Year

In 2nd and 4th Quarter of each year, sell next 2 years of CRRs at monthly granularity in an 6-month optimization - First 6-months at 60%, Second 6-months 45%, Third at 30%, Fourth at 15% - Optimize each time-of-use across multi-period months for annual - Monthly auction is 90% and optimize across 3 times of use


Spring 2013 CRR Calendar- Long-term Auction Sequences

Credit Lock and Run dates

April29-May17,2013


May20-Jun7,2013

Credit Lock and Run datesJune10-28,

2013

Credit Lock and Run datesJul1-19,

2013

MAY JUNE JULY


Winter 2013 CRR Calendar- Long-term Auction Sequences


Oct28-Nov15, 2013


Nov18-Dec6,2013

Dec9-Dec27,2013

Dec30-Jan17,2013

WMS vote on Calendar Options: - Back-to-Back or - Defer after holiday

NOV DEC JAN

Jan6-Jan24, 2014

Jan27-Feb14, 2014

FEB


Format of Calendar has been changed

From WMS Jan 28th email, ERCOT proposed final dates as well as format improvements and no comments received (good news). - Simplified format for the CRR Calendar (summary of dates rather than all days)- 2014 Extension of the CRR activity calendar timeline through the end of 2014- Inclusion of additional worksheets separating and detailing NOIE PCRR nomination sequence as well as protocol references that drive the auction and nominations dates


TAC Vote Requested later this week

Motion to be considered from ERCOT:

In accordance with Protocols 7.5.1 (4) (b) (iii), and within the boxed language of NPRR463, TAC approves the ERCOT Proposed CRR Calendar for 2013-2014 which includes monthly and Long-Term Auction Sequence dates.

Protocols excerpt 7.5.1 (4) (b) (iii) :A calendar of key milestone dates, specifically the weeks of bid and credit windows for each CRR Auction in the CRR Long-Term Auction Sequence, must be approved in final form by the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) no later than the earliest of May 1 (for a CRR Long-Term Auction Sequence to be held in the second half of a year), November 1 (for one being held in the first half of the following year), or 120 days prior to the planned closure of the bid window for the first CRR Auction in the CRR Long-Term Auction Sequence. This timeline can be shortened to 60 days notice for implementation of the first CRR Long-Term Auction Sequence.


Oversold Risk?

55% System previously sold in

Year1

15% System previously sold in Year2

First auction

Potential issue beyond only having 5% incremental capacity in Seq 1

Scenario of oversell on 100MW line:Sold Y2 2013 as 15% model -> 15MW award cleared in Y2Sold Y1 2013 as 55% model

Y2 inventory was scaled to 55% of 15MW = 8.25MW reserveY1 clears remaining 46.75MW (55MW-8.25MW reserved)

Sequence 1 Inventory = 15MW + 46.75MW = 61.75MW reservedIn sequence 1, no longer scaled with NPRR46360% Model = 60MW, but already sold 61.75MWPotentially no new sales unless counterflow


Oversold Risk continued

ERCOT received NPRR463 code this week to see how significant this issue may be based on current inventory and historical bidding

ERCOT will run scenarios and consider any significant updates at Feb WMS

If significant (eg,Load Zones do not clear any MW), potential considerations:1- Do nothing, proceed as planned2- For transitional purposes make first Sequence 65-70%3- For Sequence 1 auction use scaling of existing inventory4- Skip first sequence for 2013


Transaction Bid Limits

For Year 1 annual auction ran in Nov 2012 (which has 2500 bid limit):Total number of Transactions (bids and offers) entered by market into the auction 133k Total number of Awards 39k Number of Transactions that were 12-month strips 29kNumber of Awards that were 12-month strips 5.5kNumber of Transaction that were more multi-month (including the 12-month) 75kNumber of Awards that were multi-month 17kNumber of CRRAH that bid more than 2,400 bids 21 of 118

Repeat for Year 2 annual auction ran in Dec 2012 (which had 3500 limit)Total number of Transactions (bids and offers) entered by market into the auction121kTotal number of Awards 23kNumber of Transactions that were 12-month strips 31kNumber of Awards that were 12-month strips 3kNumber of Transaction that were more multi-month (including the 12-month) 71kNumber of Awards that were multi-month 8kNumber of CRRAH that bid more than 3,400 bids 5

For monthly auctions in 2012

Total average number of transactions submitted120kAverage number of awards 15kNumber of CRRAH that bid more than 7,400 bids 5 to10

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Protocol expiration of CRR Auction Revenue Distribution Methodology

7.5.7 Method for Distributing CRR Auction Revenues

(2) Prior to December 1, 2013, ERCOT shall credit the net CRR Auction revenue (including PCRR revenue) produced from CRRs cleared in each CRR Auction that source from a Settlement Point located within a 2003 ERCOT Congestion Management Zone (CMZ) and sink at a Settlement Point located within the same 2003 ERCOT CMZ to Qualified Scheduling Entities (QSEs) in the 2003 ERCOT CMZ on a zonal Load Ratio Share (LRS) basis. All other net CRR Auction revenues must be allocated to QSEs on an ERCOT-wide LRS basis. For these allocation purposes, any Non-Opt-In Entity (NOIE) Load Zone is considered to be located entirely within the 2003 ERCOT CMZ that represented the largest Load for that NOIE or group of NOIEs in 2003. Before the end of the three-year period described above, the ERCOT Board shall consider whether to extend the policy or ratify some other alternative.

•ERCOT asks that stakeholders consider if any policy changes are needed:o Recommend stakeholder review for policy considerationo Board review and approval due in late 2013o If NPRR and system changes are needed then timing becomes an issueo ERCOT can support analysis if necessary in the decision processo If no significant ideas/progress, ERCOT will sponsor NPRR to maintain as is.

Feb. 2013 ERCOT Public

14 ERCOT PublicOct, 2012

Potomac summary reflecting 2011 CARD distribution

15 ERCOT PublicFeb, 2013

APPENDIX


CRR Roadmap

2012 2013

Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3Q1 Q4

NPRR 357/430 Credit Q3NPRR 453 Yr 1 / Yr 2 Execution Q3/4CRR Upgrade to Linux Hardware Q3/4

2012-2013 work in parallel on:Stress testing 200,000 bid limit on Linux Potential Future Changes:

NPRR407 Phase 2 – CRR Credit (initiate 1Q?) SCR769 - Read-only Role (initiate 1Q?) NPRR455 - CRR Shift Factors NPRR484- CRR Credit Calculations CRR API - Leverage new Nexant functionality PhaseShiftTxfrmr Optimization Refine Hub calculation for outage redistribution

NPRR463 – 6 month / Rolling Auction Break-up scaling PCRR/CRR Integration fixes and improvements ERCOT configuration / testing Requirements – Oct 2012, Test - Jan, Prod – April

February 4, 2013 ERCOT Public ERCOT Update to CMWG NPRR463 and CARD Distribution Matt Mereness ERCOT...

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