Cameron Corbin

Monday, February 22, 2016

Consequences of Nuclear Weapons on the Environment

Ramana, M. V. "Nuclear power: economic, safety, health, and environmental issues of near-term technologies." (2009). <http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev.environ.033108.092057>

Harwell, Mark A., et al. "SCOPE 28: Environmental consequences of nuclear war. Volume II. Ecological and agricultural effects." (1985).< http://dge.stanford.edu/SCOPE/SCOPE_28_2/SCOPE_28II.html>

Acheson, Ray, Hui Zhang, Hans Kristensen, M.V. Ramana, Merav Datan, Zia Mian, Pavel Podvig, John Ainslie, and Greg Mello. "Assuring Destruction Forever: 2015 Edition." Assuring Destruction Forever: 2015 Edition (2015): 1-100. Publications. Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom. Web. 22 Feb. 2016. < http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/resources/publications-and- research/publications/9724-assuring-destruction-forever-2015-edition>

Y. Fujii, ‘The Role of Atmospheric Nuclear Explosions on the Stagnation of Global Warming in the Mid 20th Century’, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, vol. 73, no. 5, pp. 643–52. < http://eprints.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/dspace/bitstream/2115/44918/1/FujiiTexAuthorVersion.pdf>

Harwell Source Apendix C pg 1-14

In a nuclear explosion thermal radiation and the blast waves would cause destruction and massive death over an area of 500km2 per megaton in a major city, (for comparison the bombs that fell on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were roughly only 20 kilotons, a much smaller energy output.) When a nuclear explosion makes contact with land, 100,000 tonnes per megaton of energy of dust, soil, and debris are pushed into the atmosphere and carries about 50% of the radioactivity of the bomb with it and falls mostly within 24 hours of the explosion. About 50% of the airborne particles will make their way into the upper troposphere and stratosphere and will contribute to long term radioactive fallout around the globe. It is also possible that if a nuclear explosion occurred in the atmosphere or in space it would create an electromagnetic pulse

strong enough to damage equipment and communications networks over regions as large as continents.

Nuclear explosions and the fires caused could generate large quantities of chemical compounds that would be toxic to humans as well as alter the atmospheric composition that could negatively affect the biosphere and the climate. Nitrogen oxides would be created by over several hundred kilotons and would catalyze chemical reactions in the atmosphere resulting in a 10-30% loss in ozone levels which could take years to recover or in a worst case scenario may be permanent. Large amounts of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, nitrogen and sulfur oxides, hydrochloric acid, pyrotoxins, heavy metals, asbestos, and other materials would be pumped into the lower atmosphere and contaminate the soil and water supply leading to death of many forms of life. Nitrogen, sulfur, and chlorine compounds that were dispersed in the troposphere could increase rain-fail acidity by several magnitudes and could last for months leading to large swaths of plant life being destroyed. Land surface temperatures could also fall by 20-40 degrees below normal in only a few days leading to a decline in agriculture and possibly death for those in the far northern and southern regions of the Earth.

Those outside of the incendiary zone but still relatively close will be exposed to lethal external gamma ray doses in the first few days. People outside of the lethal fallout zones can still be exposed to debilitating radiation does, (exposure at half of the lethal level can cause radiation sickness), and combining with other injuries or stress the radiation at a lesser degree can still cause fatalities. Global fallout in the northern hemisphere would lead to an average of 10 to 20 rads of gamma rays per human lifetime with the peak of 20 to 60 rads. However, due to meteorological effects, there could be “hot zones” created where the average dose could be as high as 100 rads. In the southern atmosphere global fallout would only produce 1/20 th of the doses in the northern atmosphere.

Fujii Source

The reason that global warming plateaued during the mid-20th century was caused by the atmospheric nuclear explosions detonated between 1945 and 1980. The fine dust that was pushed into the atmosphere helped block out the thermal energy from the sun just enough to keep global warning at a constant and thus suggest that the nuclear winter theory is correct as it has already happened on a very minor scale. What is being measured to help support the nuclear winter theory is the recording of the GST or the global mean temperature which started to rise in 1917, although evidence also showed increases starting as early as 1880. The reason for the lack of a larger scale global warming before 1917 could be explained by the eruption of several volcanos such as Krakatau in 1883, Santa Maria in 1902 and Novarupta in 1912, all of which were large explosions that effectively shot large amounts of debris into the air mimicking the effects of nuclear fallout without the radioactive portion. The levels of GHG or greenhouse gases specifically CO2 continued to rise significantly throughout the 20th century even though the GST was stagnant which leads to the result that the nuclear weapon detonation and testing caused it.

Atmospheric nuclear tests began with the Trinity test in 1945 with the explosions of Little Boy at Hiroshima and Fat Man at Nagasaki following soon after. The total yield of the 441 atmospheric nuclear explosions before the Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963 reached 409 megatons. After the

treaty though China and France still continued to test and another 63 tests with a 31 megaton yield were carried out. The last atmospheric test was done by China in 1980 at Lop Nor and the total yield from 1945 to 1980 of all tests was 504 explosions and a yield of 40 megatons.

Several simulations have been run to test how to mitigate global warming based off the results of the nuclear tests effects on the environment. One method would be to inject fine limestone powder in the lower stratosphere which could reduce CO2 concentrations and help mitigate acid rain and is healthier than using sulfate aerosols or oxides in metal to do so. However it is noted that much more research needs to be done and that there is still a possibility after many different simulations that could lead to the explanation of the stagnation of the GST. The author suggests that some complicated climate phenomenon induced from the atmospheric nuclear explosions that is still unknown could have caused it or even NO2 from hydrogen bomb explosions could have caused it as well.