Featuring the SDQL Including: Week 4 NFL selections+!!€¦ · 2015 NFL Week 4 | 3 SBB’s...

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MTI’s Newsletter Teaser Plays... Two-Team, Six-Point Teaser Play of the Week 4-Star Kansas City +9.5, Arizona -0.5 Supporng Teaser-Specific Trends: The Chiefs are 18-0 ATSp6 aſter allowing more points than expected for two consecuve games. The Cardinals are 17-0 ATSp6 off a in which they had more than 300 passing yards as a favorite. Three-Team, Ten-Point Teaser Play of the Week 4-Star Atlanta +3.5, Detroit +19.5, Chicago +13 Supporng Teaser-Specific Trends: The Falcons are 34-0 ATSp10 as a favorite vs an opponent that allows a compleon rate of less than 55 percent. The Lions are 23-0 ATSp10 on the road vs an opponent that allows a compleon rate of more than 65 percent. The Bears are 22-0 ATSp10 as a dog and off a road SU and ATS loss. Don’t Miss the Trends Mart... F or the first me, the Killersports.com Trends Mart is up and running for football season. Several masters and pros are offering systems on the trends mart including SportsBook Break - ers with featured weekly trends and system 5-packs. Watch Daily Trends Videos... T he Sports Data Query Group is posng daily NFL query vid- eos on YouTube each Tuesday-Sunday during the season. Subscribe to these videos on YouTube. In This Issue: MTi’s Week 4 Selecons ...................................................... 2 SportsBook Breakers’ Week 4 Selecons ............................ 3 SBB’s NFL Player Trends ....................................................... 4 SportsBook Breakers’ Spotlight System ............................... 4 Cajun Sports’ College Football System ................................ 5 SBB’s Five NFL Trends to Watch in Week 4 .......................... 6 SBB’s NCAA Trends to Watch ............................................... 6 Pick Sixty Sports: Tips and Totals ......................................... 7 NFL Schedule Chart ............................................................. 8 NFL Trends and Notes..................................................... 9-11 The Power of Two-Team Teasers ....................................... 10 NFL Annual Acve Trends .................................................. 11 Tracking The 2015 Season... W hile the powerful SDQL is great for tracking complex and very specific handicapping informaon, it is also just as useful for tracking the basics. In this spot all season long we will track basic handicapping situaons over the full season, as well as how they’ve gone the past three weeks. Situation 2015 ATS record 2014 ATS record Home 26-22 126-140-1 Home Dog 8-7 39-42 Home Favorite 17-12 86-93-1 Off a win 18-14 124-132-1 Off a Cover 17-15 119-134 Passes Per Game 35.3 passes 35.0 passes Rushes Per Game 26.4 rushes 26.7 rushes Average Total Score 47.1 ppg. 44.3 ppg. Including: Week 4 NFL selections+!! NFL Player Trends, SBB’s Spotlight System, Dozens of NFL/NCAA Trends $ 25 2015 WEEK 4 Featuring the SDQL

Transcript of Featuring the SDQL Including: Week 4 NFL selections+!!€¦ · 2015 NFL Week 4 | 3 SBB’s...

Page 1: Featuring the SDQL Including: Week 4 NFL selections+!!€¦ · 2015 NFL Week 4 | 3 SBB’s Newsletter Side 4-STAR NY Giants over BUFFALO – While the Bills have played well so far

MTI’s Newsletter Teaser Plays...Two-Team, Six-Point Teaser Play of the Week

4-Star Kansas City +9.5, Arizona -0.5

Supporting Teaser-Specific Trends: The Chiefs are 18-0 ATSp6 after allowing more points than expected for two consecutive games. The Cardinals are 17-0 ATSp6 off a in which they had more than 300 passing yards as a favorite.

Three-Team, Ten-Point Teaser Play of the Week

4-Star Atlanta +3.5, Detroit +19.5, Chicago +13

Supporting Teaser-Specific Trends: The Falcons are 34-0 ATSp10 as a favorite vs an opponent that allows a completion rate of less than 55 percent. The Lions are 23-0 ATSp10 on the road vs an opponent that allows a completion rate of more than 65 percent. The Bears are 22-0 ATSp10 as a dog and off a road SU and ATS loss.

Don’t Miss the Trends Mart...For the first time, the Killersports.com Trends Mart is up and

running for football season. Several masters and pros are offering systems on the trends mart including SportsBook Break-ers with featured weekly trends and system 5-packs.

Watch Daily Trends Videos...The Sports Data Query Group is posting daily NFL query vid-

eos on YouTube each Tuesday-Sunday during the season. Subscribe to these videos on YouTube.

In This Issue:MTi’s Week 4 Selections ...................................................... 2SportsBook Breakers’ Week 4 Selections ............................ 3SBB’s NFL Player Trends ....................................................... 4SportsBook Breakers’ Spotlight System ............................... 4 Cajun Sports’ College Football System ................................ 5 SBB’s Five NFL Trends to Watch in Week 4 .......................... 6 SBB’s NCAA Trends to Watch ............................................... 6 Pick Sixty Sports: Tips and Totals ......................................... 7 NFL Schedule Chart ............................................................. 8 NFL Trends and Notes .....................................................9-11 The Power of Two-Team Teasers ....................................... 10 NFL Annual Active Trends .................................................. 11

Tracking The 2015 Season...While the powerful SDQL is great for tracking complex

and very specific handicapping information, it is also just as useful for tracking the basics. In this spot all season long we will track basic handicapping situations over the full season, as well as how they’ve gone the past three weeks.

Situation 2015 ATS record 2014 ATS recordHome 26-22 126-140-1

Home Dog 8-7 39-42Home Favorite 17-12 86-93-1

Off a win 18-14 124-132-1Off a Cover 17-15 119-134

Passes Per Game 35.3 passes 35.0 passesRushes Per Game 26.4 rushes 26.7 rushes

Average Total Score 47.1 ppg. 44.3 ppg.

Including: Week 4 NFL selections+!!NFL Player Trends, SBB’s Spotlight System, Dozens of NFL/NCAA Trends

$252015 WEEK 4

Featuringthe SDQL

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MTi’s NFL Selections / Week 4MTi’s Newsletter Side Play4-Star Philadelphia -3.5 over WASHINGTON -- Both of these

teams are 1-2 this season, but only the Eagles are a division contender. Washington’s lone win came against the Rams when St Louis was in a terrible spot, having upset the Seahawks the previous week. We expect the Eagles to take care of business here.

This, of course, is a key divisional match-up and the Eagles only host the Saints next week. Philadelphia is a focused 16-0 ATS on the road vs a divisional opponent when they face a non-divisional opponent next, as long as they are not on a three-plus game losing streak or a TD-plus favorite. The SDQL text is:

team=Eagles and A and DIV and n:NDIV and n:NB and streak>-3 and line>-7 and season>=2000

Last season, they beat Dallas 33-10 getting three on the road in this spot.

In addition, Philadelphia is a road-warrior, having gone 8-0 ATS on the road with they were on the road in their last game, winning every game straight up. The SDQL for this one is simply:

team=Eagles and A and p:A and date>=20111000Note that they were a 7.5-point underdog in the only game

in which they did not win by at least a TD.The Redskins abandoned the ground game vs the Giants last

week and this is a bad sign for them. Washington is 0-10 ATS (-10.25 ppg) off a road game in which they threw at least 10 more passes than their season-to-date average. The only game that they won straight up in this situation was a 16-13 squeaker over the Buccaneers as an 8.5-point favorite. Last season, they had two games in this spot. In the first, they lost 45-14 laying 3.5 to the Giants and in the second they were shutout 24-0 as a 2.5-point home dog to the Rams. See for yourself by running this SDQL text:

team=Redskins and p:A and p:passes - tA(p:passes)>=10 and date>=20030921

The Eagles should serve notice here that they are coming after the division crown. Lay the 3.5.

MTi’s FORECAST: Philadelphia 31 WASHINGTON 13

MTi’s Newsletter Totals Play4-Star Green Bay at San Francisco UNDER 47 -- The 49ers

were demolished last week by the Cardinals by a 47-7 final. However, the game got sloppy early after the Cardinals defense scored two TDs within the first six minutes of the game.

San Francisco has historically responded with their defense as a big dog off a poor performance, as they are 0-11 OU as a TD-plus dog the week following a double-digit ATS loss, staying under by an average of 9.9 ppg. Last season, they lost to the Seahawks 17-7 in this spot. The SDQL text is:

team=Fortyniners and line>=7 and tp:ats margin<=-10 and NB and date>=20001000

Also, San Francisco is 0-6 OU as a home dog and after two consecutive 10-plus point losses, staying under by an average of 16.1 ppg.

The Packers should not be worried about the 49ers’ offense out-scoring them. Green Bay has traditionally played a more conservative game on the road than at home. They have been an especially strong UNDER play when playing on the road after two straight home games, as the linesmakers have not been in tune to the downshifting of the offense. In fact, the Packers are 0-9 OU on the road when they played at home in each of the previous two weeks, averaging only 19 points per game while allowing only 15 points per game.

Finally, Green Bay is 0-8 OU when they are off a home game and visiting a team that has averaged less than 5.1 yards per play season-to-date, staying under by an average of 12.1 ppg.

Make the UNDER the play.

MTi’s FORECAST: GREEN BAY 24 San Francisco 17

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SBB’s Newsletter Side4-STAR NY Giants over BUFFALO – While the Bills have played

well so far this season, they’ve also been incredibly lucky. Last week was a huge win for Buffalo over Miami, in Miami. They have won their four times in the past 10 years and after each game they’ve been destroyed the next week. In fact in the last three they’ve lost by an average of over 30 points per game.

New York meanwhile had a cakewalk over a division rival last week as well, defeating the Redskins, 32-21. The Giants are 10-0 ATS (12.5 ppg) since 2004 after hosting the Redskins last game (team=Giants and p:H and po:team=Redskins and season>=2004).

They played a very clean game offensively, and did not commit a turnover. The Giants are 15-0 ATS (9.93 ppg) since Sep 17, 2000 and as a dog after a win where they did not commit a turnover (team=Giants and D and p:turnovers=0 and p:W and date>=20000917).

It was a game they were expected to win, as more than a three-point favorite. Despite the win they are now more than five point dogs. The Giants are 7-0 ATS (18.93 ppg) since Dec 24, 2011 when the line is at least a TD higher than their last game (team=Giants and line - p:line>=7 and date>=20111224). Meanwhile, the Giants are 8-0 ATS (20.1 ppg) since October 25, 2012 as more than a two-point dog coming off a home win (team=Giants and line>2 and p:HW and date>=20101025).

Buffalo was an underdog in Miami last week, defeating the Dolphins, 41-14. The Bills are 0-8 ATS (-7. 0 ppg) since 2011 off a game as a dog where they covered by at least 10 points (team=Bills and p:D and 10<=p:ats margin and season>=2011).

They also did not commit a turnover in the big win. The Bills are 0-8 ATS (-11.19 ppg) since Nov 14, 2004 off a win as a dog where they did not commit a single turnover (team=Bills and p:turnovers=0 and p:DW and date>=20041114).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: New York 24, BUFFALO 21

SportsBook Breakers’ Total Play4-STAR Kansas City and Cincinnati Over – The Chiefs have a

reputation of a good defense, but the results this season are far from it. They allowed 38 points to Green Bay last week as they were wiped all over the field after giving up 24 (31 including defensive points) to a Denver team that could not push the ball at all the week prior. The Bengals offense is firing right now and when they start to put up points the Chiefs will need to loosening the reigns a bit to try to match.

Andy Dalton has played incredibly so far this season, including back-to-back three touchdown games. Teams that have thrown at least 3 TD passes in back-to-back games are 140-103-4 OU (p:PTD>=3 and pp:PTD>=3).

They needed every bit of Dalton’s 383 yards as the Bengals did not have a rush of more than seven yards in the entire game. Teams which did not have a rush longer than seven yards last game are 87-71-2 OU (max:p:longest rush<=7).

The reason they got into a second half shootout is because they had no answer for Steve Smith. The vet had 13 catches for 186 yards and two TDs. Teams which allowed at least 12 catches to a receiver last game are 79-56-5 OU (max:po:receptions>=12).

Kansas City played Monday night and lost to Green Bay, 38-28. Jamaal Charles as the driving force of their scoring with three TDs rushing. The Chiefs are 7-0 OU (13.79 ppg) since Dec 01, 2013 after a loss where they had a rushing touchdown (team=Chiefs and 0<max:p:rushing touchdowns and p:L and date>=20131201).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 51 points

SportsBook Breakers’ NFL Selections / Week 4

Vince Akins of SportsBook Breakers has proven to be one of the best handicappers in the business and has dominated the NFL the past four seasons. Over that time, SportsBook Breakers has gone a huge +$4109 with its selections. Last season, SBB finished as the top handicapper on VegasInsider.com with a +$1826 finish. Vince Akins picks, which include can be found at Vegasinsider.com.

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SBB’s College Football Trends to Watch (9-12)Trends Sports Data Query Language

Carson Palmer is 11-0 ATS (13.4 ppg) since November 17, 2013 after a game where he threw at least two touchdown passes.

Carson Palmer:p:passing touchdowns>=2 and date>=20131117

Frank Gore is 10-0 ATS (12.2 ppg) since November 2009 as a favorite coming off a road game where he had a rush of at least 23 yards.

Frank Gore:p:longest rush>=23 and p:A and F and date>=20091129

AJ Green is 9-0 ATS (11.8 ppg) since December 30, 2012 at home after a game in which he had at least 6 receptions.

H and 6<=Bengals:AJ Green:p:receptions and date>=20121230

Adrian Peterson is 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) as more than a three point dog after a home win where he had a rush of at least 25 yards.

Adrian Peterson:p:longest rush>=25 and p:HW and line>3

Demaryius Thomas is 11-0 OU (8.77 ppg) since October 2012 the week after a win in which he had a reception of 40+ yards.

40<=Broncos:Demaryius Thomas:p:longest reception and p:W and NB and date>=20121007

SportsBook Breakers’ NFL Player Trends

SportsBook Breakers has spent the past season focused on league systems and has found over 100 that are win-ners at well over the 55% required rate for the long-term success. Each week, SBB will highlight an active league system here. If you are looking for more SDQL-based systems from SBB each week, check out their offerings on the Killersports.com Trends Mart.

PLAY AGAINST: Teams which have won by at least 25 points in each of the past two games

20-39-1 ATS (-3.08, 33.9%)SDQL TEXT: p:margin>=25 and pp:margin>=25

In the NFL, true blowouts are not as common as you might think. So when a team blows out another, bettors take note. Blowing out teams in back-to-back weeks is far rarer, and when that happens the betting public can barely contain themselves to jump aboard the bandwagon. As it turns out, that is not a very wise decision.

Teams which have won by at least 25 points in each of the past two games are 20-39-1 ATS (-3.08, 33.9%).

On average, only twice per season does a team win by 25+ points in back-to-back weeks. And when it happens, lines really jump, as these teams have been favored by an aver-age of 7.1 points despite being on the road in 28 of the 60 instances.

This season, the breakout star has been the Arizona Cardi-nals, who have cruised to a 3-0 start. Their margin of victory had just kept rising as they won by 12 in the season opener over New Orleans, by 25 in New Orleans, and then by 40 points last week over San Francisco.

This week Arizona is a TD-favorite while hosting the Rams and that number is likely to climb. Consider grabbing the overlooked Rams here.

SportsBook Breakers’ Spotlight System

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Cajun Sports College Football SystemIn Games 3-9, play ON a non-conference home favorite 14+ points off a road shutout SU win vs. an opponent not off 2 road games.

SDQL Text game type=’RS’ and 10>game number>2 and ((conference = o:conference))=False and site=home and line<-13.9 and p:site=away and po:points < p:points and po:points=0 and (op:site=away and opp:site=away and opp:season=season)=False

System AnalysisThe college football calendar continues to

roll on with Week Five already upon us. The Week Four college schedule provided the fans with several very exciting matchups and for the investors a few surprises. We are looking forward to another week of college football action make sure you join us at KillerCappers.com for all of our College Football Best Bets including of course our SEC Game of the Week which won again with Texas A&M last week.

We suffered a disappointing loss on these pages last week as the Washington Huskies came up short versus the California Golden Bears. We expect to bounce back with a solid system supporting a team in an almost perfect winning situation.

Our research this week involved teams coming off a shutout victory we wanted to know how they responded. After using several different parameters involving home teams in this situ-

ation we were curious about teams pulling off a shutout victory on the road and then return-ing home. What we uncovered was an almost perfect winning situation centered on those two parameters, shutting out their opponent on the road and then returning home installed as a favorite.

The research of situations such as home teams, road teams, favorites and underdogs coming off a shutout victory produced quite a few profitable systems. The one that really stands out plays on a two touchdown home favorite whose opponent has not been away from home for their last two games. The fact the visitors have not been on the road for their last two games is important because it keeps the home team from facing a road weary team which would more than likely inflate the line the oddsmakers assign to this home team.

With all the system parameters met this week’s Cajun Sports NCAA Football System of the Week calls for a play on Appalachian State in their matchup against Wyoming on Saturday. Have a great weekend and as always good luck from all of us at Cajun Sports Wire. Remember to join us at KillerCappers.com for all of our NCAAF and NFL Best Bets this week.

SU: 14-0-0 (33.07, 100.0%) ATS: 13-1-0 (11.07, 92.9%) avg line: -22.0 O/U: 2-2-0 (6.25, 50.0%)

Rushes Rush Yds Passes Completions Passing Yds TrnOvrs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 42.5 208.8 20.5 13.5 193.0 0.5 9.0 12.8 16.5 7.5 45.0Opp 46.0 170.2 20.0 10.8 104.5 3.2 7.0 0.8 3.5 1.8 11.9

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Trends Sports Data Query LanguageThe Cardinals are 13-0-1 ATS (11.61 ppg) since Oct 27, 2013 after a game where they had a rushing touchdown.

team=Cardinals and 0<max:p:rushing touchdowns and date>=20131027

The Lions are 0-12 ATS (-6.67 ppg) since Oct 18, 2009 and on the road and vs an opponent averaging less than 1.25 turn-overs per game.

team=Lions and A and oA(turnovers)<1.25 and date>=20091018

The Raiders are 0-10 ATS (-13.75 ppg) since Nov 27, 2005 vs an opponent off two straight 7+ point losses.

team=Raiders and op:margin<=-7 and opp:margin<=-7 and opp:week+2=week and date>=20051127

The Steelers are 0-10 OU (-12.35 ppg) since Oct 28, 2007 with a Monday night game next week.

team=Steelers and n:day=Monday and n:NB and date>=20071028

The Broncos are 10-0 OU (7.35 ppg) since Sep 23, 2012 coming off a road game where they had a rushing touchdown.

team=Broncos and 0<max:p:rushing touchdowns and p:A and date>=20120923

SBB’s College Football Trends to Watch (10-3)Trends Sports Data Query Language

Louisville is 13-0-1 ATS (11.9 ppg) since October 2000 as a road dog after a game as a home favorite of at least three points.

team=LOU and AD and p:H and p:line<=-3 and date>=20001001

Washington State is 11-0 ATS (16.0 ppg) since 2010 on the road after a home game where they allowed at least 100 yards rushing.

team=WAST and A and po:rushing yards>=100 and p:H and season>=2010

Boise State is 0-11 ATS (-6.6ppg) since 2011 at home with a total under 70 after a win where they had at least 250 passing yards.

team=BOIS and H and total<70 and p:passing yards>=250 and p:W and season>=2011

Troy is 12-0-1 ATS (9.3 ppg) since 2011 at home after agame as a dog.

team=TROY and H and p:D and season>=2011

Tulsa is 11-0 OU (8.9 ppg) since December 2012 after an away game where they allowed at least 21 points.

team=TLS and po:points>=21 and p:A and date>=20121201

SBB’s Five NFL Trends to Watch: Week 4

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS NFL AND NCAA SELECTIONS ARE NOW AVAILABLE UNDER

VINCE AKINS AT VEGASINSIDER.COM

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Pick Sixty Sports: Tips and TotalsIt took until Week 3 but when the dust finally settled in Green

Bay Monday night, we were sitting on a nice 5-1 record for our star-rated NFL picks (2015 season record: 8-8-1 ATS). It’s a long season and it always helps to hold ‘marathon, not a sprint’ adage in mind when it comes to betting, sort of like the message Jacksonville coach Gus Bradley must be sending to his club after getting rung up 51-17 by the Patriots last weekend.

I’m not sure if Bradley uses the SDQL to help writeup his gameplan or rally the troops each week but if he does, this simple code for teams off a loss where they allowed more than 50 points may come in handy:

SDQL Text: p:L and po:points > 50

Database history suggests a 57-percent value playing on these teams their next game (29-22-1 ATS) and of the 22 that were divisional, the scoring average was 47.1 points (11-11 O/U). The line on this week’s game between Jacksonville and Indianapolis is 48 and that helps it qualify for this Over/Under profile that has seen 20 of the past 28 games stay under the posted total.

SDQL Text: AD and tp:FD + 8 <= po:FD and op:FD + 8 <= opo:FD and 42 <= total <= 51

We’re looking for road dogs who we’re completely outclassed the previous week, losing the first down battle by eight or more. When these teams are getting points against an opponent who is in a similar situation, they’ve covered at a 18-11 ATS clip with totals going 7-20-1 O/U (74-percent UNDER).

The past 13 games in this profile stayed under the number by more than 10 points per game (0-12-1 O/U) and the six divisional contests were low by more than 14 PPG.

SDQL Text: AD and tp:FD + 8 <= po:FD and op:FD + 8 <= opo:FD and 42 <= total <= 51 and season >= 2009 and DIV

Indianapolis temporarily stopped its bleeding last week in Tennessee but the team is allowing an average 27 points this season. Jacksonville is Indy’s second of three-straight divisional games and then in Week 6, the Colts host the mighty New England Patriots who rolled up on the Colts twice last season by scores of 45-7 and 45-20. Indianapolis has to slow things down and the Jags are a perfect candidate. Further support for a potentially lower scoring game is found with this code for recent divisional teams on normal rest off a divisional game where they allowed 30-plus points.

SDQL Text: DIV and p:DIV and po:points >= 30 and season >= 2011 and rest > 5

The record is 9 overs and 22 unders (71-percent) including a 2-7 O/U record when this week’s opponent gave up more than 30 points in its last outing.

Pick: Take the Jaguars and Colts UNDER 49 points

OVER UNDER BETTING TREND

Totals so far this year are 26-20-2 O/U (57-percent) according to the KillerSports.com database, much further ahead than last year’s pace through the first three weeks of 21-25-2 O/U (46-percent). Books are constantly adjusting but only six games this weekend are lined with a total of 45 or greater. Something to keep an eye on considering that in the 2014 season, Week 4 was the highest percentage of overs for the entire season (10-3 O/U — 73-percent).

Track weekly totals with the following text: season=2015 and H and week,1

Follow @PickSixtySports or visit www.picksixtysports.com.

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2015 NFL Week 4Time Teams Prev. Next Lines Final Notes8:25 THUR

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

L vs CIN W @ STL

vs CLE @ SD#

9:30 SUN

N.Y. Jets at Miami

L vs PHL L vs BUF

BYE BYE

1:00 SUN

Oakland at Chicago

W @ CLE L @ SEA

vs DEN @ KC

1:00 SUN

Houston at Atlanta

W vs TB W @ DAL

vs IND^ vs WAS

1:00 SUN

N.Y. Giants at Buffalo

W vs WAS^ W @ MIA

vs SF* @ TEN

1:00 SUN

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

L @ NE W @ TEN

@ TB @ HOU^

1:00 SUN

Kansas City at Cincinnati

L @ GB# W @ BAL

vs CHI vs SEA

1;00 SUN

Philadelphia at Washington

W @ NYJ L @ NYG^

vs NO @ ATL

1:00 SUN

Carolina at Tampa Bay

W vs NO L @ HOU

BYE vs JAC

4:05 SUN

Cleveland at San Diego

L vs OAK L @ MIN

@ BAL vs PIT#

4:25 SUN

Green Bay at San Francisco

W vs KC# L @ ARZ

vs STL @ NYG*

4:25 SUN

St. Louis at Arizona

L vs PIT W vs SF

@ GB @ DET

4:25 SUN

Minnesota at Denver

W vs SD W @ DET*

BYE @ OAK

8:20 SUN

Dallas at New Orleans

L vs ATL L @ CAR

vs NE @ PHL

8:30 MON

Detroit at Seattle

L vs DEN* W vs CHI

vs ARZ @ CIN

#On Monday Night, *On Sunday Night, % On Saturday Night, ^On Thursday Night

Notes:

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2015 NFL Week 4 | 9

Trends and Notes / Week 4Ravens at Steelers - The Ravens are 7-0 ATS (6.21 ppg) since

Oct 18, 2009 on the road after they rushed for at least 50 yards less than their average. The Ravens are 7-0 ATS (9.21 ppg) since Oct 18, 2009 off a home game and after two consecutive games with a positive DPA. The Ravens are 0-6 ATS (-7.33 ppg) since Dec 24, 2011 and after a game in which they had at least 100 fewer yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Steelers are 7-0 ATS (9.36 ppg) since Dec 12, 2004 and at home and off a road game and after a win with a negative DPS. The Ravens are 0-9 OU (-10.28 ppg) since Sep 30, 2007 and off a home game and after a game in which their opponent had more than 300 passing yards. The Ravens are 6-0 OU (8.33 ppg) since Feb 03, 2013 on the road vs a team with a better record. The Steelers are 0-6 OU (-8.67 ppg) since Nov 18, 2012 and after a win with a negative DPS.

Jets at Dolphins - The Jets are 0-7-1 ATS (-8.31 ppg) since Oct 02, 2011 off a game as a favorite where they lost and suffered an ATS loss. The Jets are 6-0 ATS (15.92 ppg) since Jan 01, 2006 off a home game where they passed for three times as many yards as they rushed for. The Dolphins are 0-8 ATS (-14.94 ppg) since Dec 27, 2009 after a game in which they threw at least 10 more passes than their season-to-date average. The Dolphins are 7-0 ATS (8.64 ppg) since Oct 08, 1989 at home as a dog after two consecutive losses and ATS losses. The Jets are 0-6 OU (-7.33 ppg) since Nov 17, 2011 off a loss as a favorite in which they had at least two turnovers. The Dolphins are 9-0 OU (11.67 ppg) since Dec 16, 2007 at home after a game in which they threw at least 10 more passes than their season-to-date average.

Jaguars at Colts - The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS (-13.00 ppg) since Sep 08, 2013 as a dog and vs a team with the same record. The Colts are 0-6 ATS (-17.00 ppg) since Jan 06, 2013 after a win in which they were outgained by their opponent. The Jaguars are 7-0 OU (10.71 ppg) since Dec 30, 2012 as a dog and vs an opponent averaging fewer than 25 rushes per game. The Colts are 0-8 OU (-7.56 ppg) since Nov 30, 2008 off a road game vs opponents off a game with less than 26 minutes of possession time.

Giants at Bills - The Bills are 0-6 ATS (-7.50 ppg) since Sep 18, 2011 off a game as a dog where they covered by 10+ points. The Giants are 8-0 OU (8.62 ppg) since Oct 10, 2013 after a home game in which a receiver had more than 100 receiving yards. The Bills are 6-0 OU (12.83 ppg) since Oct 21, 2012 vs an opponent averaging less than 28 minutes of possession time.

Panthers at Buccaneers - The Panthers are 0-6 ATS (-11.00 ppg) since Dec 29, 2013 after a game in which a receiver had a reception of 40+ yards. The Buccaneers are 7-0 ATS (8.71 ppg) since Sep 28, 2014 and after a loss and ATS loss. The Buccaneers are 0-9 OU (-10.11 ppg) since Oct 26, 2014 after a game in which a receiver had more than 5 receptions.

Eagles at Redskins - The Eagles are 0-7 ATS (-8.86 ppg) since Sep 17, 1995 and as a favorite and after a game in which they held their opponent to less than 50 rushing yards. The Eagles are 9-0 OU (9.61 ppg) since Dec 07, 2003 off a game as a dog vs an opponent averaging more than 32 minutes of possession time. The Eagles are 7-0 OU (10.93 ppg) since Jan 01, 2006 off a road game in which they punted at least 8 times. The Redskins are 0-9 OU (-11.39 ppg) since Dec 02, 2007 off a road win in which they had at least two turnovers.

Raiders at Bears - The Raiders are 0-9 ATS (-9.89 ppg) since Jan 01, 2012 off a game where they had a ballcarrier with 20+ rushes. The Bears are 12-0 ATS (13.83 ppg) since Dec 13, 1998 off a road game and after two consecutive 7+ losses. The Bears are 0-6 ATS (-18.25 ppg) since Oct 26, 2014 and vs opponents scoring on more than 40% of their drives. The Raiders are 9-0 OU (16.50 ppg) since Oct 24, 2010 and on the road after a road game. The Bears are 0-8-1 OU (-11.22 ppg) since Dec 20, 1992 within 3 of pickem after a game in which they had less than 100 passing yards.

Texans at Falcons - The Texans are 0-6 ATS (-7.50 ppg) since Dec 15, 2013 as a dog vs an opponent averaging at least 35 passes per game. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS (-5.58 ppg) since Dec 27, 2010 at home off a road game with more than 34 minutes of possession time. The Texans are 7-0 OU (7.86 ppg) since Oct 17, 2010 after their passing yards decreased over the past 3 games. The Falcons are 9-0 OU (9.67 ppg) since Sep 19, 2004 at home as a favorite vs an opponent averaging at least 30 rushes per game. The Falcons are 0-6 OU (-10.42 ppg) since Dec 10, 2006 after a win in which they were down by at least a TD after the first quarter.

Chiefs at Bengals - The Chiefs are 8-0 ATS (10.00 ppg) since Dec 30, 2007 on the road as a dog after two consecutive games with a positive DPA. The Bengals are 0-7 ATS (-6.43 ppg) since Oct 21, 2012 after their opponent scored at least one defensive TD. The Bengals are 0-6 ATS (-15.00 ppg) since Oct 05, 2014 as

continued on page 10

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continued on page 11

Trends and Notes / Week 4 continued

a favorite and vs a team with more losses. The Chiefs are 7-0 OU (13.79 ppg) since Dec 01, 2013 after a rushing touchdowns after a loss. The Chiefs are 0-6 OU (-7.25 ppg) since Dec 27, 2009 and on the road and as a dog and after two consecutive losses and ATS losses.

Browns at Chargers - The Browns are 7-0 ATS (4.86 ppg) since Sep 14, 2014 after a loss in which a receiver had a reception of 30+ yards. The Browns are 6-0 ATS (5.50 ppg) since Dec 08, 2013 after a 10+ ATS loss. The Chargers are 0-7 ATS (-7.71 ppg) since Nov 25, 2001 at home after two away losses. The Chargers are 0-6 OU (-12.83 ppg) since Sep 22, 2013 after a road game in which a receiver had more than 100 receiving yards.

Packers at Fortyniners - The Packers are 0-6 ATS (-7.17 ppg) since Jan 20, 2008 as a 7+ favorite off a home game where they scored more than 33 points. The Fortyniners are 0-8 ATS (-13.31 ppg) since Dec 10, 2006 off a game as a dog and after a 21+

point loss. The Fortyniners are 6-0 ATS (12.17 ppg) since Nov 13, 2005 as a 7+ dog and after scoring fewer than 10 points. The Packers are 7-0 OU (13.21 ppg) since Jan 04, 2004 off a home game after three consecutive wins and ATS wins. The Packers are 6-0 OU (6.17 ppg) since Nov 24, 2013 after their defense achieved 4+ sacks last game. The Packers are 0-6 OU (-10.33 ppg) since Nov 26, 2009 as a favorite on the road after 2+ home games. The Fortyniners are 7-0 OU (14.36 ppg) since Nov 08, 2009 at home after 2+ road games if they were underdogs in the last one.

Rams at Cardinals - The Rams are 7-0 ATS (6.29 ppg) since Jan 01, 2012 as a dog after a game in which they got a first down on at less than 25 percent of plays. The Rams are 0-6 ATS (-12.83 ppg) since Dec 13, 2009 on the road after two consecutive games with a negative DPS. The Cardinals are 9-0 ATS (9.22 ppg) since Sep 15, 2013 and after a game with at least one defensive TD. The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS (-12.75 ppg) since Oct 27, 1996

Teaser Trends Sports Data Query LanguageThe Eagles are 19-0-2 ATSp6 (15.38 ppg) since September 2000 on the road before 2+ home games the next two weeks.

team=Eagles and A and n:H and nn:H and week+2=nn:week and season>=2000

The Vikings are 15-0 ATSp6 (16.67 ppg) since Nov 10, 2002 as a dog after their passing yards decreased over the past 3 games.

team=Vik ings and D and p :PY<pp:PY<ppp:PY and ppp:week+3=week and date>=20021110

The Packers are 0-20-1 ATSm6 (-10.21 ppg) since December 12, 2010 on the road and vs a team with a worse record.

team=Packers and A and WP>o:WP and date>=20101212

The Texans are 0-18 ATSm6 (-15.56 ppg) since December 10, 2012 vs an opponent averaging at least 35 passes per game.

team=Texans and 35<=oA(passes) and date>=20121210

The Fortyniners are 0-17 OUp6 (-11.26 ppg) since November 28, 2004 after their opponent scored at least one defensive TD last week.

team=Fortyniners and 0<po:interception touchdowns+po:fumble return touchdowns and NB and date>=20041128

The Power of Two-Team TeasersOne of the fantastic and unique features of www.killersports.com is the ability to run teaser trends. Each week we’ll show off five such two-team teaser trends in this space utilizing this important and often overlooked area of handicapping. Any trend with a “p6” designation is for a play on/under 6-pt teaser and a trend including “m6” is for

a play against/over 6-pt teaser.

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2015 NFL Week 4 | 11

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NFL HANDICAPPING ANNUAL Active Trends

Trends Sports Data Query LanguageHOU006: The Texans are 0-12 ATS as a dog when facing a team that has averaged at least 385 yards of offense per game season-to-date.

team=Texans and D and oA(TY)>385 and date>=20091129

CAR007: The Panthers are 0-10 ATS as a favorite the week before a bye.

team=Panthers and F and n:week = 2 + week and season>=1998

SF007: The 49ers are 0-9 ATS vs a team that has averaged fewer than 1.6 turnovers per game season-to-date.

team=49ers and oA(TO)<1.6 and date>=20140119

CAR008: The Panthers are 0-8 ATS in each of the last four seasons after facing the Saints.

team=Panthers and po:team=Saints and season>=2010

HOU009: The Texans are 0-8 ATS when visiting a team that has av-eraged at least 13 passing first downs per game, season-to-date.

team=Texans and A and oA(PFD)>=13 and date>=20110925

Trends and Notes / Week 4 continued

at home as a favorite after they allowed at least 10+ points less than their season-to-date average last game. The Cardinals are 9-0 OU (8.67 ppg) since Nov 25, 2007 at home and after scoring more than 33 points.

Vikings at Broncos - The Vikings are 7-0 ATS (10.79 ppg) since Nov 01, 2009 and with a bye week next week. The Vikings are 7-0 OU (19.64 ppg) since Oct 23, 2011 with their opponent on at least a three-game winning streak. The Broncos are 7-0 OU (8.29 ppg) since Dec 24, 1994 off a road game in which they had less than 50 rushing yards.

Cowboys at Saints - The Cowboys are 0-8 ATS (-10.75 ppg) since Nov 22, 1992 on the road off a home loss in which they were leading after the 3rd quarter. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS (8.64 ppg) since Sep 05, 2012 on the road and vs a team with the same record. The Saints are 0-6 ATS (-20.08 ppg) since Nov 09, 2014 at home. The Cowboys are 7-0 OU (11.57 ppg)

since Sep 29, 2013 on the road and off a game in which their defense allowed more than 400 total yards. The Saints are 0-7 OU (-8.43 ppg) since Nov 14, 2004 at home off a road game and vs an opponent averaging at least 375 offensive yards per game

Lions at Seahawks - The Lions are 11-0-1 ATS (5.62 ppg) since Oct 08, 1989 on the road and as a 7+ dog when they are winless with at least three losses. The Lions are 0-10 ATS (-8.50 ppg) since Nov 08, 2009 on the road after a loss where they had a rushing touchdown. The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS (12.56 ppg) since Dec 06, 2009 and at home when on exactly a one game SU and ATS winning streak. The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS (9.33 ppg) since Nov 06, 2006 at home on Monday night. The Lions are 6-0 OU (7.58 ppg) since Oct 19, 2008 on the road when they are win-less with at least three losses. The Seahawks are 9-0 OU (10.17 ppg) since Nov 14, 2010 when their opponent has at least three consecutive losses.

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