Feasibility Study for Brampton€¦ · Given past job loss trends and the uncertainty for the...

Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. Valuation & Advisory Services 33 Yonge Street, Suite 1000 Toronto, ON M5E 1S9 (416) 862-0611 C&W File ID: 09-4494 November 20, 2009

Market Demand & Development Feasibility Study for Brampton Employment Lands

Prepared for: The Corporation of the City of Brampton Brampton City Hall 2 Wellington Street West Brampton, Ontario L6Y 4R2

November 20, 2009

Mr. David Waters, MCIP, RPP, PLE Manager, Land Use Policy The Corporation of the City of Brampton Brampton City Hall, 2 Wellington Street West Brampton, ON L6Y 4R2 Re: Market Demand & Development Feasibility Study for Brampton Employment Lands - Final C&W Ltd. File ID: 09-4494

Dear Mr. Waters:

We are pleased to present our final report examining the Market Demand and Development Feasibility of Employment Lands in the City of Brampton. The scope of the project has included a review of the long-term employment land area allocation and related employment forecasts recommended for the City in two reports prepared by Hemson Consulting Ltd. Furthermore, it comprises an extensive analysis of labour force and market trends for both Brampton and the GTA as required by the Terms of Reference set out by the City in this matter (dated June 22, 2009).

On the basis of these investigations we have drawn conclusions for the scale of additional Employment Lands required by Brampton over the study period (extending to the year 2031), as well as the estimated new employment that will be accommodated on these lands. In addition, the suitability of several precincts of the City to accommodate the forecast land requirements from a marketplace perspective has also been addressed in the report that follows.

It has been a pleasure to conduct these investigations on behalf of the City of Brampton and we look forward to being of continued assistance in the future.

Respectfully submitted, CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD LTD.

J. Kevin Donahue, CMC MRICS Vice President Valuation & Advisory Services Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. [email protected] Phone Office Direct 416.359.2374 Fax 416.359-2602

Andrew Browning Associate Vice President Valuation & Advisory Services Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. [email protected] Phone Office Direct 416.359.2510 Fax 416.359-2602

BRAMPTON EMPLOYMENT LANDS REVIEW TABLE OF CONTENTS

VALUATION & ADVISORY SERVICES

T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 SECTION 2: PRECEDING EMPLOYMENT LAND ANALYSIS FINDINGS ------------------------------------------------------ 13 SECTION 3: EMPLOYMENT & ECONOMIC TRENDS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 SECTION 4: INDUSTRIAL MARKET OVERVIEW -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 SECTION 5: OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 34 SECTION 6: BRAMPTON EMPLOYMENT LAND -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 39 SECTION 7: COMPETITIVE EMPLOYMENT LAND ENVIRONMENT ------------------------------------------------------------ 46 SECTION 8: ROADS AND INFASTRUCTURE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 49 SECTION 9: BRAMPTON EMPLOYMENT LAND CONCLUSIONS --------------------------------------------------------------- 59 SECTION 10: ASSESSMENT OF EMPLOYMENT LAND REQUIREMENTS FOR SELECTED PRECINCTS --------- 72 ADDENDUM A: ADDITIONAL FINDINGS FROM PRECEDING EMPLOYMENT LAND RESEARCH -------------------- 81

BRAMPTON EMPLOYMENT LANDS REVIEW EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1


E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y

The accompanying report presents the findings of an investigation into the market demand for employment lands in the City of Brampton over a forecast period extending to the year 2031. It has been prepared to assist the City as it endeavors to plan for future development and conform with requirements of the 2006 Provincial Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (“The Growth Plan”). As such, it comprises a review of the long-term employment land allocations and employment forecasts contained in several reports previously prepared for the City of Brampton by Hemson Consulting Ltd, along with additional new research pertaining to Toronto Region industrial and office marketplace trends and dynamics. Ultimately, the objective in undertaking this analysis has been to provide a pragmatic market-based assessment of the future demand for employment land in Brampton. The following outlines the key findings of the investigation.

E M P L O Y M E N T A N D E C O N O M I C T R E N D S Manufacturing sector employment in the Toronto Region has been declining since 2004 while other

industrial and service sectors have steadily expanded over the past fifteen years.

Manufacturing employment in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) has in fact seen no net gain since 1996 and commencement of the most recent downturn in jobs for this group pre-dates the current economic slowdown by several years.

The significant economic downturn witnessed globally over the past year will temporarily stall economic expansion and employment growth in the Toronto Region.

Employment in the City of Brampton is relatively over-weighted in favour of the manufacturing sector when compared with the Toronto CMA, whereas the opposite is true for office-type employment.

I N D U S T R I A L M A R K E T O V E R V I E W Up until the economic downturn in the second half of 2008, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) had seen

very healthy demand over the prior several years for modern, high-ceiling space. Demand had been especially focused on transportation, warehousing and logistics space in the GTA West marketplace, particularly Mississauga and Brampton.

The GTA West market represents 55% of the total regional space inventory and has accounted for 82% of the new regional supply since 2001.

Negative absorption of space (net change in occupied space) was observed in the GTA during the latter part of 2008 and the first half of 2009 for only the second time since 1993.

The direction of the industrial market is presently unclear, but vacancy levels which are currently still reasonable by historic standards are expected to rise in coming quarters and new supply activity has come to a halt.



Sharp declines have recently been observed across the region for the number of transactions as well as values realized for land and buildings. Similarly, average rents have also dropped during the past few quarters.

Builders are struggling to find occupants for their product and little or no speculative development is expected in the foreseeable future.

Given past job loss trends and the uncertainty for the manufacturing sector’s recovery in the foreseeable future, a recovery in demand that would precipitate commencement of a new construction cycle is likely 12 to 24 months away based on the experience of past economic downturns.

Based on City of Brampton Building Permit data, the rate of new industrial supply in Brampton has averaged 1.7 million square feet annually during the last full industrial real estate cycle (1992 to 2008).

Since 2001, Brampton has accounted for a declining share of GTA West industrial supply. This has been due in part to the emergence of Milton and Bolton/Caledon as competitors for industrial development and their ability to offer lower land costs, which in turn enable lower rental rates.

The emergence of new competitors along with the prospect of a build-out of Mississauga industrial lands on the horizon will result in a changing regional industrial market dynamic for the future.

Discussions with industry experts provided several additional market insights of note:

o A trend towards increased adoption of new technology by manufacturers as well as warehouse and distribution operators will result in lower employment density levels;

o The uncertain outlook for the automotive sector (particularly for North American manufacturers) which has historically been an economic driver in the region;

o The need for efficient, unencumbered access to highways directly or via good arterial roadways by most manufacturers;

o The evolution of the Toronto Region as a major North American Warehousing Hub and continued growth anticipated for this sector; and,

o Lower lot coverage rates anticipated for the future in the case of warehouse and distribution operations.

O F F I C E M A R K E T O V E R V I E W Toronto Region suburban markets are coming off a period of record low vacancy rates due to a

disciplined development community.

The recent economic downturn has resulted with an increase in vacancy levels (albeit well within reasonable levels by historic standards at 8.0% in suburban markets during Q2 2009), as well as negative absorption of space being recorded for the first half of the current year.

The marketplace is currently exhibiting far more healthy characteristics versus past economic downturns and is expected to rebound once employment growth resumes in a meaningful way.

Brampton as an office market is only a small component of the GTA marketplace, i.e., constituting a 2% share of the overall inventory or 2.8 million square feet. It is also noteworthy that a substantial portion of this local space is not leasable in the general marketplace as it is owner occupied, including a significant public sector (government) share.



Among the eleven major office submarkets across the GTA West area, Brampton ranks seventh in terms of inventory, with the top five submarkets being located in Mississauga.

Insight provided by industry experts canvassed for these purposes concerning Brampton as an office submarket include:

o Brampton has not historically been recognized by large-space users or leasing representatives, although events of the past three years, including the development of the Loblaw Head Office in the Churchill Business Park, may be indicative of its emergence as an option for the future;

o By virtue of its proximity, the Bram West Employment Land Precinct is seen as a reasonable extension to Mississauga’s Meadowvale Business Park, a major employment land district comprising a substantial number of corporate and other office activities;

o Brampton is increasingly being viewed as an option for large space user corporate office campus development, however, its suitability for major multi-tenant office facilities is believed to be premature at this time;

o Proximity to both Highways 401 and 407 are viewed as being a strategic advantage for Brampton in terms of its ability to attract corporate offices; and,

o Beyond the Bram West Employment Land Precinct, potentially attractive areas for major office development in Brampton were identified in the vicinity of Highways 410 and 407 including Steeles Avenue, and the southeasterly portion of the City with access to Pearson Airport along with Highways 407, 427 & 401.

B R A M P T O N E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D The City’s inventory of employment land as presented in the November 2008 Hemson report has been

utilized for the purposes of this analysis. It comprises 4,280 net hectares, of which 1,392 net hectares are deemed to be vacant.

The Hemson report also assumes (based on experience seen elsewhere) that 5% of the inventory will remain vacant over the long term future, so that the net effective vacant supply that will see development over the forecast period amounts to 1,180 ha.

Approximately 77% of the vacant inventory is situated in three precincts including Area 47 (Highway 427), Bram West and the City’s largest existing employment area – Airport Intermodal. The inventory data does not include land within Northwest Brampton (Areas 52 and 53).

The long-term rate of employment land absorption (1978 to 2008), according to City data, has averaged over 64 ha per year. More recently the average for the 1992 to 2008 period which corresponds with our estimate of a full industrial real estate cycle was just over 43 hectares per year. By comparison, the Hemson report cites a rate of 75 ha per year (1995 to 2005), although we caution that this period excludes several years before and after the defined term during which market conditions were relatively weaker, and therefore does not constitute a full real estate cycle.

Available information comparing employment land absorption since the year 2000 for Brampton and several other GTA West municipalities suggests that Brampton has ranked second only to Mississauga in recent years.

Brampton also ranks second to only Vaughan in terms of available vacant employment land amongst GTA West municipalities, although it is noteworthy that Milton in particular (along with Vaughan, Oakville,



Halton Hills and Caledon) is proposing to add a significant amount of additional employment land with which to compete for development in the future.

“Employment Land Employment” density as defined by Hemson and dealing with jobs accommodated primarily in low-rise industrial type space (excluding Major Office and Population Related employment) is estimated at present to be approximately 38 persons per net hectare. This rate is similar to levels seen in Mississauga, Oakville and Halton Hills and is impacted by the relatively low density levels found in warehouse space – a very substantial component of the overall industrial make-up in Brampton.

Prospects for elevating the employment density rate will be challenging according to industry experts and will in part depend on the uncertain outlook for manufacturing activity.

C O M P E T I T I V E E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D E N V I R O N M E N T Mississauga has historically been a dominant provider of employment lands in the GTA West market and

is commonly viewed as approaching build-out of its available supply. It still possesses approximately 800 hectares (net) of vacant supply at this time, however, it does not have any additional land with which to expand its employment areas in the future.

Key Caledon employment areas are located along Brampton’s northerly border in the Bolton, Mayfield West and Tullamore areas. Bolton is the largest of these rural service centres and two options, west of the existing settlement area, are being considered to further expand the employment land supply.

The key employment district in Halton Hills is situated to the west of Brampton along Highway 401 with additional supply in this area being envisioned by the Sustainable Halton initiative. Furthermore, ROPA 38 proposes “Future Strategic Employment Lands” adjacent to Brampton’s boundary, north of Steeles Avenue and west of Winston Churchill Boulevard, for growth beyond 2031.

Milton employment lands are situated on the north and south sides of Highway 401 and along the rail corridor traversing the town. Additional lands are proposed in Southwest Milton, along with post-2031 “Future Strategic Employment Lands” in the vicinity of Highways 401 and 407.

Vaughan possesses substantial employment lands in the vicinity of intermodal rail facilities and along the Highway 427, 407 and 400 corridors. A significant amount of its existing supply designated for the future is located adjacent to Brampton’s municipal boundary east of Hwy 50 in the Vaughan Enterprise Zone. Additional supply is also proposed along Hwy 400 north of Teston Road, plus post-2031 “Future Strategic Employment Lands” proposed by York Region along Hwy 50, north of Nashville Road.

R O A D S A N D I N F R A S T R U C T U R E

GTA WEST CORRIDOR MTO commenced an EA for this corridor and the York Region Draft Official Plan conceptually identifies it

as a Proposed Controlled Access Highway with ultimate connection to Highway 400.

Peel Region’s ROPA 24 illustrates a Strategic Infrastructure Study Area extending through South Caledon and a portion of Northeast Brampton.



Brampton’s Official Plan acknowledges the corridor as being provided over the long term.

Brampton’s Transportation and Transit Master Plan identifies a conceptual alignment generally north of Brampton along its boundary. The recommended alternative transportation improvements were tested with and without the corridor being in place by 2031 for the purpose of assessing its impact on employment land potential.

NORTH/SOUTH TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR & BRAM WEST PARKWAY The NSTC is proposed to extend from Mayfield Road in Brampton to Highway 407 / 401 at the border of

Brampton or Halton Hills. The specific location, width and lane configuration is subject to further study and has not been determined.

The related Bram West Parkway connects Highway 407 to the NSTC. The specific location, width and lane configuration is also subject to further study.

The Halton/Peel Boundary Area Transportation Study initiated in July 2009 examines a number of options that include a Brampton Arterial, Brampton Freeway and a Halton/Peel Freeway. A preferred option has not yet been recommended.

Peel Region has identified a conceptual corridor and protection area from Highway 407 to Mayfield Road between Mississauga Road and Winston Churchill Boulevard. ROPA 16 proposes changes to the transportation network and policies to accommodate the corridor and has been appealed to the OMB.

The Regional Capital Roads Program for 2007 to 2031 includes both the NSTC and the related Bram West Parkway.

A North - South Corridor Protection Area has also been illustrated in the City’s Official Plan, indicating it to be a “high order transportation facility” to be constructed to Bovaird Drive by 2021 and Mayfield Road West by 2031. These Policies are under appeal to the OMB.

The Brampton TTMP identifies the corridor as a “super arterial” route with up to 8 lanes, expected speeds of 70-80 km/hr and controlled access limited to other major arterials and collector routes. Phased development from 407 to Mayfield West by 2031 is recommended with 8 lanes to Bovaird Drive and 6 lanes further north to the Brampton - Caledon municipal boundary.

HIGHWAY 427 EXTENSION The MTO 427 Transportation Corridor EA is underway and identifies Major Mackenzie Drive in Vaughan

as the preferred terminus. Anticipated completion and approval of the EA is scheduled for 2010, after which it is expected that funding will be requested by MTO for construction.

The Peel-Highway 427 Extension Area Transportation Master Plan proposes an arterial connection from Mayfield Road to Major Mackenzie Drive through Northeast Brampton to facilitate access to the terminus of the Highway.

The Brampton TTMP identifies the need for transportation connectivity with York Region and the 427 terminus. With the extension of the 427, required road network improvements within Brampton, including a combination of new roads and widening of existing routes are contemplated.



B R A M P T O N E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D C O N C L U S I O N S

INDUSTRIAL MARKET Cushman & Wakefield has generated new industrial space supply figures based upon the average

annual employment land absorption forecasted by Hemson (i.e., 87.4 hectares per year until 2031). This rate of absorption has been applied to a range of building coverage benchmarks - 34% to 40%. The resulting square footage calculations are compared to Brampton’s recent new construction activity to provide an indication of the magnitude of Hemson’s forecast versus actual historic activity.

o Our assessment indicates that an unprecedented volume of new industrial supply activity is forecasted by Hemson, i.e., between 1.9 and 2.2 times the annual rate of new industrial space development actually seen in Brampton during the recent industrial market cycle from 1992 to 2008.

Given the above, we have prepared an alternative forecast model for industrial activity. Our model uses a “bottom up” approach beginning with industrial demand in square footage terms, then applying benchmark site coverage ratios to determine land requirements.

o A 1.7 million square foot per year base-line figure is drawn from Brampton’s performance for the 1992-2008 period, which we believe reflects a full industrial real estate building cycle. We accept that market dynamics will see the City increase its share of industrial activity over time, particularly with the impending build-out of Mississauga’s employment lands. However, these growth prospects are tempered by the onset of competitive employment lands in neighbouring municipalities, as well as uncertainty regarding the scope of future manufacturing sector growth. In our view, a growth factor of 20% to 40% above the historic rate of new supply is supportable.

o Based on these assumptions, the additional employment land (industrial-type land) that is required to meet the market forecast demand by 2031 has been calculated. The preferred scenarios range between 0.0 hectares and 233 hectares of additional employment land, notwithstanding the existing 1,180 net vacant hectares.

MAJOR OFFICE SPACE MARKET

Brampton’s Central Area does not offer suitable sites for corporate campus-style development. Successful suburban office nodes tend to be oriented to 400-series highway access. Brampton’s Central Area is viewed by the office leasing marketplace as being too isolated to make commuting easy for a GTA-wide labour pool. The most viable office development locations would be focused along Highway 407 at/near major interchanges. Therefore, it is our recommendation that employment land calculations should make an allowance for Major Office space.

Given the magnitude of Brampton’s population base and business sector, we accept that it will see increasing office activity in the future. Brampton’s new office supply trend has been historically sporadic, making it more difficult to gauge market growth prospects. For these purposes, we have therefore modeled Hemson’s office employment projections.

o Benchmark suburban office space per square foot densities have been used for sensitivity analysis of office space projections. The figures of 250 and 275 square feet per employee



are indicated as the “Low-Medium” and Medium-High” sensitivity levels chosen for modeling purposes.

o The analysis concludes that between 71 ha and 103 ha of land or between 65% and 85% of the total requirement in Brampton for Major Office Buildings (defined by Hemson as buildings exceeding 20,000 square feet) over the forecast period is warranted in employment land areas.

TOTAL EMPLOYMENT LAND CONCLUSIONS

In addition to the Industrial and Major Office Land requirements noted above, an allowance for Population Related employment activity on Employment Lands has been estimated for these purposes.

The combined additional demand from all three types of employment activity over the forecast period amounts to approximately 1,280 to 1,622 hectares, or, a requirement for 100 ha to 442 ha in excess of the current vacant supply by 2031.

Based on these land requirements and suitable employment density benchmark rates, the total new employment anticipated on Employment Lands by 2031 is estimated at approximately 67,000 to 93,000 jobs.

S E L E C T E D P R E C I N C T E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D R E Q U I R E M E N T S As part of this analysis, our opinion has been requested for the suitability of four specific precincts or major areas as candidates for Employment Land activity in the future from a market demand perspective. The following outlines our conclusions for these areas (please also refer to Section 10 for supporting maps):

LANDS FRONTING ON THE EAST SIDE OF CLARKWAY DRIVE (AREA 47)

The subject lands comprise approximately 110 ha potentially available between Clarkway Drive and the existing Area 47 Employment Land boundary.

The lands are suited for use as Employment Lands from a market perspective, particularly due to: the quality of planned local roadways and access to regional highways (including the Hwy 427 Extension and a proposed arterial connection through the subject precinct); proximity to the CP intermodal facility and the larger industrial zone developing in the vicinity within Vaughan; and the arterial frontage afforded by Clarkway Drive.

NORTHWEST BRAMPTON LANDS (AREAS 52 AND 53)

For these purposes we have assumed that at a minimum, a major arterial roadway will be available to serve the potential Employment Lands, however, a 400-series type highway has not been assumed for the GTA West Corridor before the year 2031.



The subject lands situated south of the CN Rail corridor (Area 52) with the most immediate access to Highways 401 and 407 via the future NSTC will be suited to use as Employment Lands from a market perspective over the forecast period.

We previously indicated that the Clarkway Drive lands in Area 47 comprising approximately 110 ha will be suited to employment land use. Depending on decisions taken by the City for additional lands in the Northeast, we therefore find that as much as 330 to 440 net ha (assuming the “medium-high” scenario referenced in Section 9) could be warranted by the marketplace and suitable for Northwest Brampton over the study period (extending to 2031)

AIRPORT ROAD NORTH SPECIAL STUDY AREA (AREA 49)

The subject lands will face some difficulties in terms of their ability to attract traditional employment land employment, particularly due to the limited amount and configuration of land, as well as the adjacent residential uses planned for the future. We do not anticipate the precinct will be a strong industrial area, although industrial multiples may represent some opportunity for small locally oriented enterprises.

The precinct will also be suited to an office component, particularly space users intending to provide services at the local area level, i.e., the substantial future population base planned in surrounding Brampton districts (e.g., Areas 28 and 48 through 50) plus the local businesses anticipated in the vicinity, including Caledon.

Finally, the subject lands would potentially be suited to the accommodation of Population-Related employment uses including retail that services the local market area, by virtue of the anticipated population growth in the vicinity, the employment growth being witnessed to the north in Caledon (Tullamore), as well as the strategic position of the lands at the intersection of two arterial routes (Airport and Mayfield Roads).

BRAM EAST EMPLOYMENT LANDS (AREA 41)

Significant portions of the subject lands are suited to Employment Land use, whereas selected other parcels will be confronted by challenges in terms of their ability to attract traditional employment land activities.

In general, the lands situated along Hwy 50 and the south side of Queen Street is suited for employment land.

Lands with frontage on the north side of Queen Street are also suited to Employment Land activity such as industrial multiples or office space, although we note that the adjacent residential neighborhoods may pose challenges in some cases. Two parcels (northeast Queen and Cherrycrest Drive, as well as the northwest intersection of The Gore Road and Queen Street) have already been developed or have approval in principle for non-employment land uses. A third parcel at the northwest intersection of Ebenezer and McVean Drive will also face challenges in terms of being able to compete as Employment Land supply.

A significant portion of the employment lands in the vicinity of The Gore Road and Ebenezer Road intersection have been developed as retail and therefore do not contribute to the Employment Land



supply. Vacant lands immediately adjacent to this retail and generally situated to the north of Fogal Road, will in our view, face problems in terms of their ability to provide attractive and potentially successful Employment Land options in the future.

BRAMPTON EMPLOYMENT LANDS REVIEW INTRODUCTION 10


S E C T I O N 1 : I N T R O D U C T I O N

Cushman & Wakefield in conjunction with Weston Consulting Group is pleased to submit the following report examining the Market Demand and Development Feasibility of Employment Lands in the City of Brampton, Ontario. In undertaking this analysis, we have evaluated the findings of reports prepared by Hemson Consulting Ltd. (including “City of Brampton Employment Land Strategy” dated November 2008), an Employment and Employment Land assessment prepared as part of the Peel Region Official Plan Review (August 2009) and conducted independent market investigations to reach the conclusions outlined herein.

B A C K G R O U N D We understand that Brampton Council authorized the preparation of several reports by Hemson Consulting Ltd. as input to the City’s Growth Plan conformity process. Those reports included:

City of Brampton Employment Land Strategy – Analysis and Strategic Directions (November 2008);

An Inventory & Assessment of Intensification Opportunities (November 2008); and,

An Assessment of Planned & Potential Growth in Greenfield Areas (February 2009).

As we understand it, the objectives for the Employment Land Strategy (herein referenced as the “Hemson” report) included:

Provision of a detailed employment land inventory and analysis;

Assessment of the employment land market and generally advice on areas for future employment land designation / re-designation;

Provision of policy direction to guide further applications for conversion of employment land to non-employment uses; and,

Advice for a healthy live-work ratio in the City.

The conclusions of the Hemson report anticipated that employment in the City would reach some 320,000 jobs by the year 2031, and that over half of the total employment growth would be situated on employment lands. Consequently, Hemson recommended several policy revisions for the Official Plan to accommodate the 2031 employment target, including:

Resisting the conversion of employment lands to other uses (pp. ii);

Adding between 400 and 800 ha of employment land within Northwest Brampton to help achieve Growth Plan Targets (pp. ii. Note: a subsequent report prepared by Hemson dated February 2009 and entitled Assessment of Planned & Potential Growth in Greenfield Areas assumed the addition of 600 ha of employment land within Northwest Brampton);

Consideration for a relatively minor expansion of the employment area in the Hwy 427 Industrial Secondary Plan in Northeast Brampton by adjusting the westerly boundary to coincide with Clarkway Drive (pp. 62); and,



The encouragement of higher employment densities in suitable locations through planning policy as well as alternative site design and landscaping standards to maximize employment land use (pp. ii).

O B J E C T I V E S The overall objectives specified by the City of Brampton for this study as outlined by the Terms of Reference dated June 22, 2009 are to verify the long-term employment forecasts and related employment land area allocations recommended by Hemson for the City based on Places to Grow Targets, location attributes, plans for future infrastructure, the overall marketability of the candidate areas, and enhancements to the City’s activity rate.

A P P R O A C H In light of the background and objectives outlined above, Cushman & Wakefield was authorized to undertake a Market Demand and Feasibility Assessment for Employment Lands utilizing a Three Phase Approach. Stage 1 was intended to compile the basic building blocks for the analysis and ensure that all parties to the engagement understood the basic assumptions, information sources, approach and responsibilities that underlay the project. Stage 2 saw the Advisory Team compile and analyze the market evidence that enabled it to draw conclusions for the employment land market in Brampton as well as assess the findings of the Hemson report. Finally, Stage 3 was to consolidate our findings and develop recommendations to assist the City with respect to its policy directions for Employment Lands in the future. The scope of the tasks undertaken within each stage are outlined below.

STAGE 1 – PROJECT INITIATION 1. A Project Initiation meeting that included members of the Steering Committee and Consulting Team

to ensure that the Work Program fully met the requirements of the client.

2. A review of relevant background documentation provided by the City including work completed by the Region of Peel’s consultants (MKI) concerning forecast employment and employment land requirements as part of the Growth Plan conformity exercise.

3. Meetings with Brampton Planning and Economic Development Staff, as well as stakeholders, to compile additional data, clarify issues and seek additional insights into the community.

4. Meetings with Hemson Consulting Ltd. to ensure a full understanding of the Employment Land Inventory along with key assumptions, methodologies, limiting conditions and rationale for conclusions developed by the 2008 Employment Land Strategy report.

STAGE 2 – MARKET ANALYSIS

5. A review and analysis of existing and proposed regional and local infrastructure, transportation and transit enhancements pertinent to employment land development.

6. An examination of Official Plans for adjacent municipalities to document and quantify the type of land use activity planned along the borders of Brampton and in doing so, recognize these uses in our assessment of Brampton’s employment land opportunities over the long term.



7. A Review of GTA West Corridor and Highway 427 Extension Plans. These two major corridors generate potentially significant implications for the type and amount of employment land activity – particularly in the northern section of the City.

8. An evaluation of Brampton employment and commercial development trends within the context of the larger GTA West marketplace so that a pragmatic assessment of opportunities and demand levels can be recognized by the analysis. Topics for investigation included: employment type and density levels; new construction and building permits; business relocations and sector clustering; locational advantages and constraints; land costs; building coverage ratios; servicing issues; and, real estate leasing trends.

9. A GTA Real Estate Market Overview examining broader regional market trends in commercial and industrial leasing and sales activity.

10. A review of Brampton’s Employment Land supply based on inventory and employment data provided by the City. In doing so, the available inventory has been assessed in terms of its strategic merits from a development potential and market demand perspective. Field inspections and interviews with land owners as well as real estate transaction and site selection experts has been conducted to solicit opinion for future market requirements.

11. A review of land absorption and employment density ratios for the Western & Central Portions of the GTA based on information available from local and regional governments.

12. A peer review of the Hemson study approach, assumptions and findings, including employment projections and employment land needs for Brampton. The review reflects the findings our market analysis work steps outlined above and draws conclusions for the Hemson study findings based on the most current information available and the Advisory Team’s experience as real estate and land use planning advisors.

STAGE 3 – RECOMMENDATIONS

13. Preparation of a report that consolidates the findings of our analysis and is supportive of the City as it deliberates on the questions of future Employment Land requirements, how Brampton can be positioned to realize future employment land activity growth and ensure that proposed policy directions have the benefit of a sound understanding of marketplace dynamics and requirements.

BRAMPTON EMPLOYMENT LANDS REVIEW PRECEDING EMPLOYMENT LAND ANALYSIS FINDINGS 13


S E C T I O N 2 : P R E C E D I N G E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D A N A L Y S I S F I N D I N G S

An important component of Cushman & Wakefield’s project mandate was to critically evaluate the substantial body of recent Employment Land research already undertaken for Brampton and recognize this information in our deliberations for land requirements as well as the suitability of new Employment Land precincts in the future. The following section summarizes a selection of the most pertinent points derived from the recent Hemson Consulting Ltd. research. It is provided as context for the reader as they consider the economic and marketplace analysis that is presented in the following sections. Reference should also be made to Appendix A which provides a more comprehensive summary of the Hemson research as well as the findings of the Employment and Employment Lands report prepared as part of the Peel Region Official Plan Review by Metropolitan Knowledge International (MKI), dated August 2009.

B R A M P T O N E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D S T R A T E G Y – N O V E M B E R 2 0 0 8 ( H E M S O N R E P O R T ) The following articulates important assumptions and analytical findings from the November 2008 Hemson report that have been considered in the course of our assessment of Brampton Employment Land Requirements. Note: bracketed numbers refer to the source (page reference) in the Hemson report.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS Introductory

i. Hemson defines Employment Land as accommodating a wide range of economic uses including: manufacturing & distribution; warehousing; research & development; commercial, institutional and accessory retail uses; and increasingly, community facilities and Places of Worship. (pp. 1)

ii. The potential area for employment land in Northwest Brampton is not included in the existing employment land inventory, although in a 2002 report, Hemson recommended 400 to 500 net ha in the Northwest urban expansion area. (pp. 3)

iii. The employment forecast used by the Hemson report is the preliminary forecast prepared for the City by Small Geographic Unit (SGU) in May 2008. The forecast distinguishes between employment by land use type including major office, employment land and population-related employment. (pp. 9)

iv. Major Office Employment is employment in free-standing buildings > 20,000 net sq. ft. (pp. 22)

v. Employment Land Employment is jobs accommodated in primarily low-rise industrial type building space and multiples, the vast majority being located in business parks and industrial areas. (pp. 22)

vi. Population-Related Employment is employment that exists in response to a resident population that is primarily not located in employment areas or major office jobs. It includes retail, education, health care, local government and work at home employment. (pp. 22)



Labour Force & Economic Outlook

i. Total employment in the City is forecast to grow from 155,000 in 2006 (“place of work jobs”) to 320,000 in 2031 (more then doubling the current employment, i.e., +165,000). Average annual job growth amounts to 6,600 jobs per year. (pp. 11) By comparison annual average growth over the prior decade stood at 5,100 jobs and 3,750 for the previous 20 years. (pp. 12)

ii. Brampton’s share of Peel Region employment increases from 26% at present to 37% in 2031 by accommodating over half of the Region’s growth over the 25 year period. (pp. 21)

iii. Industrial-type activities (measured by employment) had little net growth in the GTAH between 2001 and 2006 although there was a significant increase in building space. This trend indicates a decline in employment density in employment areas. The manufacturing sector in particular was cited as undergoing a restructuring process in response to shifting competitive environments. (pp. 18)

iv. While GTAH manufacturing jobs have declined since 2004, total employment has grown through notable growth in other sectors, particularly education, health and social services, trade and professional and business services. (pp. 19)

v. The current economic slowdown is likely to have some short term affects on the non-residential and real estate sectors, however, the GTAH is anticipated to remain the primary economic engine in Ontario. (pp. 20)

vi. 30% of Brampton employment growth from 2001 to 2006 occurred in the transportation, warehousing and wholesale trade sectors, which added approximately 6,000 jobs. (pp. 23) The decline seen in manufacturing share of total employment has been compensated by the expansion of the transportation, warehousing and wholesale sector. (pp. 24)

vii. Employment Land employment in Brampton (2006) was estimated at 79,500 jobs or 51.3% of total employment while major office jobs stands at 9,200 jobs or 6% of the total. (pp. 25) By comparison, the Region of Peel finds Employment Land employment comprising 55% of the total jobs and Major Office at 15%. (pp. 26) Across the “905” region of the GTA, the Employment Land share of employment also averages 55% (whereas major office stands at 10% on average). (pp. 26)

viii. In 2007, there were 97,300 jobs on Brampton Employment Lands, as follows:

80,000 industrial type activities (most of the Employment Land employment) (pp. 27);

6,000 major Office jobs (65% of the City Total) (pp. 27); and,

11,000 Population Related jobs (pp. 27).

ix. Employment Land employment is forecast to grow by 87,200 jobs (2006 to 2031), comprising 53% of the City total. (pp. 27) These projections reflect several considerations including:

Larger, more automated buildings; (pp.28)

Growing integration of manufacturing, warehousing and distribution; (pp. 28) and,

Brampton’s industrial orientation and location advantages support large industrial facilities in traditional industrial activities. (pp. 28)



x. Major Office job growth is forecast to accelerate over the same period, reaching 33,100 jobs by 2031 (versus 9,200 jobs in 2006) and constituting 20% of the Total City growth. (pp. 27) The fact that Brampton has not attracted a high proportion of major office employment to date is expected to change as the City’s population and employment base continue to expand. (pp. 30) This evolution is not, however, expected to occur in the short term. (pp. 31)

The location of future demand for major offices in Brampton is anticipated to be largely on employment land, particularly locations with superior transportation access. From a market perspective, the Bram West Employment Area will provide Brampton’s best near-term to mid-term opportunity to establish a major office node. (pp. 31)

Employment Land Supply

i. Brampton Employment Land Absorption averaged 75 ha annually between 1995 and 2005. For the 1997 to 2005 period absorption in Brampton comprised 20% of the GTA total with a peak share being achieved in 2005 at 30%. (pp. 14)

ii. The current employment land supply is 4,300 net ha including the small amount occupied by major office. (pp. 36) Some 2,880 ha is occupied (67%) with the remaining 1,390 ha being vacant. (Note: vacant lands include 420 ha in Bram West and 460 ha in the Hwy 427 Precinct (Area 47), but do not include any NW Brampton lands. (pp. 37)

iii. An assumption for long-term vacancy of part of the vacant supply is made at 5% of the total supply or 210 ha. Therefore, the net effective supply is estimated at 1,180 ha. (pp. 39)

iv. Generally servicing is not a constraint to employment land development (pp. 39).

v. The Brampton economy is oriented strongly to activities dependent on the transportation system, such as warehouse & logistics. It is primarily housed in single story, industrial type buildings that are land extensive within the Employment Areas. Consequently, the building coverage averages approximately 24% on Table 25. (pp. 41)

vi. The density of employment on employment land is estimated to be approximately 38 jobs per net ha, or 28 jobs per gross ha as defined in the Growth Plan (Note: employment land employment and land area excludes major retail and offices for these purposes). (pp. 43)

vii. Mississauga’s employment land supply is about 85% occupied and will be fully occupied by about 2012. Brampton will accommodate a portion of the demand that would otherwise be served in Mississauga. (pp. 48) For example, Bram West is positioned to act as an extension of the prestige business park activity witnessed in Meadowvale and ultimately, the same is assumed for NW Brampton, once appropriate transportation infrastructure is put in place. (pp. 48)

viii. Vaughan & Milton are cited as two particularly notable competitors for future employment opportunities (pp. 49).



Employment Land Requirements

i. At least the current supply of employment land should be maintained. (pp. 50)

ii. Additional supply needs to be designated in the NW Brampton urban expansion area, in at least the previously estimated amount of 400 to 500 net ha. (pp. 50)

iii. Economic trends indicate that densities on employment land are likely to continue to decline in the future. (pp.50)

iv. Consequently, the shortage of employment land by 2031 assuming the previous estimate of supply from NW Brampton (400 ha) ranges from 120 to 1,470 ha. Note: these estimates are conservative as they do not account for declining densities in existing (older) precincts as well as the portion of population-related employment that typically locates on employment land. (pp. 52)

v. Permitting major office on employment land is another way to increase density on employment land, although it would be contrary to other Growth Plan objectives that serve to focus such development in Urban Growth Centres. (pp. 53)

MAJOR CONCLUSIONS i. Additional employment land supply should be designated in NW Brampton.

a. At an absolute minimum, the 400 to 500 net ha recommended in the 2002 report by Hemson should be provided; (pp. 58)

b. Reducing the employment land need by planning for significantly higher densities is not recommended, (pp. 58 and 59)

c. As a result of changing market conditions since the 2002 report and the City’s significant shortage of employment land, it is recommended that a larger amount of employment land be designated in the Northwest, i.e., the 800 net ha is recommended which is very close to the Growth Scenario 2 (850 ha) described in the original (2002) analysis; (pp. 61)

d. Employment Land should be of the highest quality possible. To be most competitive, employment land must be well served by major road transportation infrastructure – preferably 400-series highways. They should also be large enough to provide a wide range of site sizes, develop a sense of place and be appropriately buffered from surrounding uses. Flexibility of use and a high design standard is also recommended. (pp. 62)

ii. All future employment land designations should have clearly defined boundaries such as arterial roads or natural features. Therefore, consideration could be given to adjusting the industrial designation boundary in the Hwy 427 Precinct (Area 47) to correspond with Clarkway Drive. This would have the effect of creating a better interface between residential and employment uses as well to provide some additional supply of employment lands. (pp. 62)



A S S E S S M E N T O F P L A N N E D & P O T E N T I A L G R O W T H I N G R E E N F I E L D A R E A S The following articulates important assumptions and analytical findings derived from the February 2009 Hemson report that considers future development (residential as well as various employment categories including employment land employment) planned for greenfield areas of the City, i.e., designated greenfield areas situated outside of the built-up boundary as defined by the Province (pp. 3).

KEY ASSUMPTIONS & FINDINGS i. Over 100,000 jobs would be accommodated at build-out of greenfield areas. For these purposes,

jobs include employment land, population related and major office jobs. (pp. 18)

ii. Hwy 427 Precinct (Area 47) jobs in Northeast Brampton assume the employment area boundary to be Clarkway Drive. Consequently, the available land in this case amounts to 580 net ha versus 469 net ha assumed by the November 2008 Strategy report where the boundary was assumed to be east of Clarkway. The net additional amount of land equals 111 net ha. (pp. 18)

iii. For Northwest Brampton, the analysis assumes 600 net ha employment land. (pp. 18)

iv. Employment density in the precincts is assumed to be 45 persons per net ha, a weighted average that assumes the following job ratio per net ha: Employment Land uses – 38; Major Office – 250; Population-Related uses – 75. Consequently, the Greenfield Employment Area job capacity totals 77,650 jobs at build-out, situated on 1,795 net ha. (pp. 19)

BRAMPTON EMPLOYMENT LANDS REVIEW EMPLOYMENT & ECONOMIC TRENDS 18


S E C T I O N 3 : E M P L O Y M E N T & E C O N O M I C T R E N D S

The objective of this section is to briefly outline of the composition of the local and Regional economic base as well as discernable economic trends to provide context for the assessment of Employment Land requirements in Brampton. Previous studies already conducted by Peel Region (PR) and Hemson Consulting (HC) that were referenced in Section 2 of this report have already documented much of this contextual information as it relates to general economic trends. Consequently, we have simply summarized the most pertinent points from these reports and provided supplementary data where appropriate in the sections that follow.

O V E R V I E W O F P E R T I N E N T E C O N O M I C T R E N D S Export growth has been strong but is now stalling. The percentage of the Ontario economy that consisted of exports reached a plateau in 2000 and since mid-2005, export values have stagnated. The destination of exports has also changed, i.e., trade with the U.S. has been softer while trade with emerging economies such as China has risen. (PR – pp 10)

Companies have also shifted the way they invest in their businesses. According to Statistics Canada, roughly 80% of capital investment by businesses in Ontario is in machinery and equipment and less than 20% is in structures, suggesting that investment in technology is the focus, as opposed to real estate. (PR – pp. 10)

Productivity is increasingly the driver of growth for manufacturers. Jobless growth has been a phenomenon in the manufacturing sector, caused by productivity increases (automation, outsourcing) replacing expansion in the generation of profits. The implications of this trend are that companies are focusing on efficiency, particularly over the past two years in the face of competitive challenges. (PR – pp. 10)

Fuel prices are starting to have an impact. The impact of oil prices is far reaching as it touches not only on fuel costs but also the cost of assorted material inputs that our critical to global economic output. As it relates to fuel costs, rising oil prices have a very discernable impact on the economy as it drives up transportation and shipping costs, which in turn affects the price of goods and services and ultimately consumer disposable income. It is increasingly the consensus view among economists that high oil prices will persist in the future. This fact will in turn affect business investment decisions as it relates to employment land development.

The significant economic downturn witnessed over the past year will temporarily stall economic expansion and anticipated employment growth. The Toronto CMA continues to be affected by the dramatic downturn in the Canadian and global economy that has occurred over the past year. The following research data published by Bank of Montreal Capital Markets Economics (October 23, 2009) illustrates the intensity of the recession and implications for CMA Employment Land development:

Ontario GDP is forecast to decline by 3.5% in 2009. A recovery is forecast in 2010 with GDP annual growth expected to reach 2.3%;

Ontario employment is forecast to contract by 2.4% in 2009, followed by a constrained resumption of growth at 0.8% for 2010;

The Ontario unemployment rate is similarly forecast to peak at 9.4% in 2009, with recovery commencing in 2010 with a projected rate at 8.8%;



Housing starts in Ontario reached a recent high of over 75,000 units in 2008, but will subsequently fall to 46,800 units in the current year, followed by a slow recovery to 52,500 units by 2011;

Canadian exports are expected to decline by 14.2% in the current year, but commence a limited rebound (+4.2%) in 2010; and,

Canadian industrial production is projected to decline by 11.5% in 2009 after a weak 2008 (4.2% decline). The anticipated rebound is notably slow at 0.2% (stagnant) in 2010 and only 4.0% in 2011.

The preceding information suggests that a potentially protracted economic recovery of the Ontario economy will occur, requiring several years for production, employment and economic activity to recover to pre-recession levels. This will translate to minimal demand for new industrial space construction in the near term.

G T A I N D U S T R Y P R O F I L E According to Statistics Canada, the highest rates of employment growth within the Toronto CMA over the past two decades (1987 to 2008) have been found in the Service Sector of the regional economy. For example, the Business, Building and Other Support Services (+251.3%), and the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (+218.4%) sectors have more than doubled in size while the Educational Services and Health Care groups each expanded by over 177.0%. Conversely, the manufacturing sector which currently comprises 13.4 % of employment in the Toronto CMA, actually declined over the 21 year period by 54,000 workers.

The following exhibit traces the relative changes (an index has been calculated with 1987 employment as the base year) that have been witnessed annually for employment in the CMA since 1987. In doing so, it distinguishes between Total Employment (all types), Manufacturing, Other Industrial (excluding manufacturing) and All Other (Service) categories. The emphasis shown on the exhibit for the industrial categories is explained by the fact that Employment Lands – which are the subject of this report – are dominated by Industrial Employment activity.

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

All Industries Manufacturing Industrial-type (excl. Manufacturing) Service Sector

Toronto CMA Employment Growth – Industrial-Type vs. All Industries Index 1987 = 100

Industrial-Type: Manufacturing, Construction, Transportation & Warehousing,Wholesale Trade, Utilities.

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey



The key observations derived from this information include the following:

Total CMA employment has risen steadily since the conclusion of the recession that occurred across North America in the early 1990’s. As of year-end 2008, total CMA employment has risen by over 42% in relation to the 1987 base year.

As noted above, the Service Sector employment category has risen at a more rapid pace and currently exceeds the base year by over 60%.

The Other Industrial Group (excluding manufacturing) has generally paralleled the trend seen in Total (All) Industries and exceeded the base year by 47% in 2008.

The most noteworthy observation to be drawn from the information can be seen in the Manufacturing subsector of the Industrial Group where employment has fluctuated over time and currently sits at only 88% of the base year (1987) level or 392,000 jobs. Consequently, the growth in the manufacturing base of Brampton over the past two decades which is illustrated by the substantial amount of employment land absorption witnessed over the period (refer to Section 6) has occurred despite any meaningful change in overall manufacturing employment growth at the CMA level (and in fact in recent years, a net decline in CMA manufacturing employment compared to 1987 levels).

It is also noteworthy that a dramatic decline in manufacturing has occurred over the past five years when a peak index value was reached in 2004 (9% above the base year). Since that year, over 95,000 manufacturing jobs were lost in the region, which pre-dates the current economic recession.

The reasons for this regional decline in manufacturing employment are varied, but include

o Recent trends observed with respect to off-shoring of production to lower cost jurisdictions situated outside Canada (e.g., southerly states of the U.S. and especially overseas markets such as several Asian countries) as well markets on the periphery of the Toronto Region; and,

o The recent escalation of the Canadian currency in relation to the U.S. dollar which has caused considerable difficulties for manufacturers relying on foreign (export) markets for clientele.

Finally, the depth of the recent economic recession that has occurred in major industrial countries around the globe has resulted in a significant uptick occurring in unemployment levels. Current data obtained from Human Resources and Skill Development Canada (HRSDC) for the October 2009 period suggest that the 3-month average unemployment rate for the Toronto Region has risen to 9.8% from 6.9% for the same period in 2008. On this basis, we anticipate that 2009 employment levels for the categories indicated on the graph will have declined further from 2008 levels.



B R A M P T O N E M P L O Y M E N T P R O F I L E The following exhibits illustrate the composition of the workforce employed in Brampton according to the Economic Development Office Employer Census for 2007, in contrast to the Toronto CMA. The focus of the exhibits is on industrial job categories (manufacturing, transportation & warehousing, construction, utilities along with wholesale trade) as it these subgroups that make up the majority of the business activity within Brampton’s Employment Lands.

Office type employment activity has also been distinguished on the exhibits, as it is a sector of interest for this report, given that much of the major office activity in Brampton (defined by Hemson as comprising buildings with over 20,000 square feet of leasable space) tends to locate in Employment Land Precincts. For these purposes, office type employment comprises the following subsets:

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing;

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services;

Business, Building and Other Support Services; and,

Public Administration.

The remainder of the City’s jobs are combined under the Other Employment Group and include: Trade; Education Services; Health Care & Social Services; Information, Culture & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Service; as well as Other Services. Note: these sectors are generally consistent with those that make up the Population-Related Employment Group as defined in the Hemson Consulting Research. The most notable category missing from this list would be local government functions which for these purposes are included in the Office Employment category (part of Public Administration).

13%

6%4%6%1%

28%

42%

Manufacturing Transportation and WarehousingWholesale Trade ConstructionUtilities OfficeOther

Toronto CMAPercentage of Employees by Type (2008)

Source: Statistics Canada

27%9%

8%

4%

0%

20%

32%

Manufacturing Transportation and WarehousingWholesale Trade ConstructionUtilities OfficeOther

City of Brampton – Percentage of Employees by Type (2008 Business Survey)

Source: Brampton Economic Development Office Employer Census, 2008



The most notable observations drawn from the exhibits include:

The relative over-weighting of the manufacturing sector employment in Brampton when compared to Toronto CMA data provided by Statistics Canada. As illustrated by the exhibit, 27% of the employment in Brampton during 2008 was manufacturing jobs, whereas the sector constituted only 13% of the jobs within the CMA. Similarly, the Transportation and Warehouse sector in Brampton is over weighted at 9% of City jobs versus 6% in the CMA.

Conversely, office-type employment in Brampton is currently underweighted at 20% of jobs versus 28% seen across the CMA.

The Other Employment category in Brampton (32%) is also noteworthy as it constitutes a relatively smaller share compared to what is seen across the CMA (42%). As outlined previously, this group of employment sectors is predominantly population-related type employment and therefore constitutes a limited amount of the space found within Brampton Employment Land Precincts.

The very strong share of total employment represented by manufacturing in the past has undoubtedly influenced the rate of historic absorption of employment land in Brampton. The uncertainty for manufacturing sector growth in the future will have potentially significant implications for employment land requirements over the forecast period considered by the Hemson Consulting report (2006 to 2031).

B R A M P T O N E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D P R E C I N C T E M P L O Y M E N T P R O F I L E S The following exhibit illustrates the distribution of employment by type for the largest of the Employment Land Precincts identified by the City of Brampton and the Hemson Consulting report. Note: further discussion of Brampton’s Employment Land Precincts is contained in Section 6.

City of Brampton (Select Precincts) – Employees By Type

*Note – Precincts with less than 1,200 employees are not indicatedSource: City of Brampton Economic Development Office Employer Census, 2007

Employees (000s)

0

8

16

24

32

40

Airport Intermodal

Highway 410

Bramalea S. G

.

Northwest Sandalwood

Bram W

est

Central Area

Huronontario South

OtherTransportation, Warehousing, Wholesale TradeManufacturingOffice



Two Precincts in Brampton are dominant in terms of employment according to the Hemson analysis of the 2007 Employer Census. The Airport Intermodal (39,358 workers) and Highway 410 (25,137 workers) Areas comprise 66% of the total jobs within the City’s defined Employment Lands.

Transportation-related jobs (also including warehouse and wholesale activity) are particularly focused within the Airport Intermodal and Highway 410 Precincts by virtue of their strategic locations in relation to 400-series Highways (407, 410, 401 and 427) as well as the CN Intermodal rail facility situated between Airport Road and Goreway Drive. These two precincts comprised over 17,800 transportation jobs in 2007.

The most significant concentrations of manufacturing activity are found within the Airport Intermodal and Highway 410 Precincts along with the Bramalea South Gateway Area with a combined 31,000 jobs or 32% of total Employment Land Precinct employment.

Office-type employment is substantial within the three largest precincts (8,200 jobs), along with the Hurontario South Area (2,900 workers) which is an office node (with supporting retail and service space) with a particular emphasis on public sector office facilities (Provincial and Peel Region).

Finally, it is noteworthy that the Airport Intermodal and Highway 410 Precincts comprise significant amounts of employment defined as “Other”. Employment types of note include Retail, Construction, Accommodation & Food Service and Health Care & Social Assistance, along with the Information and Cultural Sector in the case of the Highway 410 Precinct.

BRAMPTON EMPLOYMENT LANDS REVIEW INDUSTRIAL MARKET OVERVIEW 24


S E C T I O N 4 : I N D U S T R I A L M A R K E T O V E R V I E W

The industrial market overview that follows is intended to provide the reader with an appreciation of historic and current market dynamics across the GTA and at the GTA West and Brampton level. This understanding will provide guidance in determining the prospects for additional employment lands requirements in Brampton over the forecast period.

G T A I N D U S T R I A L M A R K E T I N V E N T O R Y – 2 0 0 9 Q 2 The Greater Toronto Area has an industrial inventory of approximately 835 million sf, and ranks in the top three markets in North American (behind Chicago and Los Angeles). The GTA market extends from Lake Ontario to Newmarket and from Ajax to Burlington. Proximity to the U.S. and a large growing population base has allowed Toronto to prosper in the past as a major manufacturing centre, as well as a warehouse distribution hub. The inventory of industrial space is divided into four broad submarkets: GTA West (367 million sf); GTA Central (289 million sf); GTA North 151 million sf); and GTA East (29 million sf). Importantly, in its market reporting Cushman & Wakefield includes the municipality of Vaughan in the GTA North submarket; however, for the purposes of the analysis in this report, it is included along with the rest of the GTA West market. Therefore, figures reported in this report do not precisely match the standard Cushman & Wakefield definition of “GTA West”.

H I S T O R I C M A R K E T P E R F O R M A N C E With ongoing demand for modern, high ceiling buildings, new construction has accelerated over the past few years with associated strong economic growth across the GTA (up until the onset of the economic downturn in the second half of 2008). In particular, demand has focused on buildings for transportation, warehousing and logistics operations in the GTA West Suburban markets of Mississauga and Brampton. The westward expansion of the GTA industrial market has been driven by several factors, including: the availability of land; excellent multiple highway access; relatively low property taxes; proximity to Toronto International Airport; and, a growing suburban business clientele and labour pool. While Brampton and Mississauga have attracted much of the growth in new high cube distribution facilities, Vaughan has also seen substantial new manufacturing premises constructed as well as distribution space.

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09Q2

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Absorption New Supply Vacancy Rate

Industrial Market Conditions – GTA

Absorption/New Supply (Mns sf) Vacancy Rate

Source: Cushman & Wakefield



The peak vacancy rates accompanying the recession of the early 1990s were driven by an excess of new supply, and compounded by significant job losses in industrial-type employment – in particular, manufacturing. Following the recovery from the effects of the recession, the GTA vacancy rate remained in a very stable range between 4.5% and 6.0% from 1998 through 2007 (a ten year period). While employment growth has continued for many forms of industrial-type employment – particularly the warehousing, distribution and transportation sectors – manufacturing sector job losses that pre-dated the 2008 recession have placed upward pressure on vacancy levels. Negative absorption (a net change in occupied space) was recorded for the first half of 2009 for only the second time since 1993.

I N D U S T R I A L M A R K E T C Y C L E – T I M I N G In our view, the 1992-2008 period reflects a full industrial real estate cycle, “from trough to trough”. Data such as new building supply and absorption volumes, as well as vacancy rate information, provide guidance as to determining the duration of a real estate cycle.

New supply declined from the peak in 1989 of around 22 million sf to 5.4 million sf in 1992, and remained steady until meaningful demand resumed in 1997-1998. Likewise, 1992 represented recent peak vacancy levels, as the GTA vacancy rate reached 13.7%. These factors point to 1992 as the “trough” of the most recent full market cycle.

We are presently in uncertain territory in terms of the direction of the industrial market. The vacancy rate is likely to worsen in coming quarters and new supply activity has come to a halt. GTA new construction was just 2.8 million sf during the first half of 2009. This compares to 4.1 million sf for the second half of 2008 and 4.5 million sf for the first half of 2008. Therefore, it is appropriate to use 2008 to represent the recent “trough” of the real estate cycle that has just completed for the purposes of analysis in this report. Notably, the Hemson Employment Land Strategy report of November 2008 references the 1995 to 2005 period as a longer-term land absorption trend, which is inconsistent with our findings. (pp.14)

I N D U S T R I A L B U I L D I N G A N D L A N D S A L E S Increasing investor demand for industrial real estate from 2000 through 2007 was largely driven by lower yield expectations (falling capitalization rates), as opposed to meaningful gains from income (cash flows). This drove up prices for industrial product across the market, while average rental rates remained relatively unchanged at around the $5.50 psf level. This trend came to an end in 2008, with an easing of investment activity and rising returns demanded by purchasers. Transaction volumes have declined considerably from peak levels seen during the 2004-2007 period.

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09Q2

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

Average Sale Price Avg. Net Rent

Average Building Sale Price and Net Rental Rate – GTA

Avg. Sale Price ($psf) Avg. Net Rent ($psf)

Source: Cushman & Wakefield and RealNet



Similarly, average rental rates have declined sharply during the past few quarters as leasing demand has slowed considerably.

Industrial land transaction activity has been impacted even more significantly. In examining data for GTA West, the submarket has seen a dramatic decrease in sales during the past twelve months (most of the sales indicated for 2008 occurred before July). There were just 7 sales during the first half of 2009; in contrast, 10 of the prior 12 years saw 50 or more sales.

Together, the building and land sale data point to difficult market conditions for GTA industrial developers. With rising levels of vacancy and declining rental rates, builders are struggling to find occupants for their product and/or cannot meet the economic requirements of new development. With such economic uncertainty and without an exit strategy (prospective investors looking to acquire industrial assets), developers will be idle until market demand resumes in tandem with a broad-based economic rebound. There will be little to no speculative development for the foreseeable future. With significant job losses across the industrial sector and uncertainty as to the outlook for the manufacturing sector in the GTA, it will be some time before workers are rehired and firms resume activity at levels anywhere near capacity. Thus, the recovery in demand that would precipitate commencement of a new construction cycle is likely 12 to 24 months away, in any optimistic forecast scenario.

G T A W E S T A N D B R A M P T O N I N D U S T R I A L M A R K E T The GTA West market (including Vaughan) has an inventory of approximately 455 million sf, and accounts for a 55% share of the total GTA inventory. In general, the municipalities of GTA West have seen new supply growth proportionate to their inventories – for example, Brampton accounts for a 22% share of the GTA West inventory and attracted 23% of the new industrial supply (in square footage terms) during the 2001-2009 Q2 period. GTA West contains the Toronto area’s largest and fastest-growing industrial markets:

Mississauga accounts for a 40% share of the GTA West market, and has grown by 25% since 2000.

Brampton accounts for a 22% share of the GTA West market, and has grown by 55% since 2000.

Vaughan accounts for a 19% share of the GTA West market, and has grown by 50% since 2000.

Industrial Land Sales Activity – GTA West

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Brampton Other GTA West Number of Transactions - GTA West

Source: Cushman & Wakefield and RealNet

# of TransactionsTransaction Volume ($ Millions)



N E W S U P P L Y I N B R A M P T O N From 2001 to 2008, the City of Brampton added an average of 1.6 million sf annually. The 2005 to 2008 period saw consistent new supply in the range of 1.8 million sf, but the first half of 2009 saw a dramatic downturn in the pace of new development. With negligible industrial building permit activity during the first half of 2009 and the latter portion of 2008, there is likely little development left in the pipeline to add any meaningful new space in the second half of 2009 and beyond.

The limitation of the Cushman & Wakefield data is that detailed municipality-level statistics are incomplete prior to 2000. However, in examining data from the City of Brampton, industrial building permits averaged 1.7 million sf annually from 1992 through 2008.

The City data and the Cushman & Wakefield data differ in that the building permit timing reflects issuance of the construction permit for a building, while the Cushman & Wakefield real estate data reflects actual occupancy of the building. The Cushman & Wakefield data reflects 87% of the total inventory identified in the building permit records during the 2001-2008 period. The statistical discrepancy can be explained in two ways (1) not all building permits issued result in completed projects, and (2) building permits for additions to

22%

40%

19%6%

5%4%

3%

1%

Brampton MississaugaVaughan OakvilleBurlington MiltonBolton/Caledon Halton Hills

GTA West* Industrial Inventory

Note: GTA West includes Brampton, Mississauga, Vaughan, Oakville, Burlington, Miltonand Bolton/Caledon (Bolton/Caledon and Halton Hills not part of survey prior to 2009)


23%

42%

16%5%

5%

8%

1%

0%

Brampton MississaugaVaughan OakvilleBurlington MiltonBolton/Caledon Halton Hills

GTA West* Industrial New Supply 2001-2009 Q2

Brampton New Industrial Supply


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Q2

Million sf



existing buildings is not always tracked by Cushman & Wakefield, and building permits for renovations is not tracked by Cushman & Wakefield.

A review of Cushman & Wakefield market survey data and Brampton building permit data confirms the comparability of the two data sets. Therefore, these figures can be relied upon to assist in benchmark annual rates of new industrial supply for forecasting purposes.

Since 2001, Brampton has represented a declining share of GTA West industrial new supply, as well as a declining share of the total new industrial supply added across the GTA. This is due in part to the emergence of the municipalities of Milton and Bolton/Caledon attracting a growing share of activity due to lower land costs and availability of land – which to tenants translates to lower rental rates. However, these markets are considered to be inferior to Brampton in the eyes of prospective tenants, and the present levels of new, vacant space are indicative of this assessment. At 2009 Q2, Brampton’s vacancy rate was 6.3% compared to 9.7% in Milton and 13.5% in Bolton/Caledon. Nonetheless, there is more competition than ever in the industrial land development market in the Toronto area. In addition, with the build out of Mississauga on the horizon, GTA market dynamics will continue to change. Mississauga’s remaining supply of employment land is approximately 800 net hectares (refer to Section 6).

Brampton New Industrial Supply


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Q2

Brampton Share of Western GTA Brampton Share of GTA

Brampton New Industrial Supply – Industrial Building Permits

Source: Building permits from the City of Brampton

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Million sf



B U I L D I N G C O V E R A G E R A T I O S Building permit data compiled from the City of Brampton and other GTA West municipalities indicates that the average building site coverage ratio is just over 36% for all types of space. This conclusion is drawn from Brampton building permit data for 249 properties from 1995 through 2008 and from a database of some 293 building permits across GTA West since 2005.

The Brampton trend has held relatively steady around the long-term average rate. The short-term rate corresponding to the broader GTA West average is remarkably similar to the long-term Brampton average. Noticeably, the GTA West rate shows a slight increase in coverage rates for 2008 and 2009 – a trend that should be monitored due to its longer-term land use/designation implications. If this trend persists, higher building densities will be achieved, reducing the required volume of employment land to accommodate growth.

GTA West MunicipalitiesAverage Building Coverage Ratios

36.4%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Building permit data from individual municipalities

City of Brampton – Building Coverage Ratios

36.4%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08




B U I L D I N G C O V E R A G E R A T I O S – B Y S I Z E O F B U I L D I N G The same building permits data sets were examined more closely to assess any correlation between building size and site coverage ratio. The GTA West data indicates that as buildings increase in size, they tend to occupy an increasingly larger proportion of the site. A similar trend is apparent for the City of Brampton, although for the very large buildings (over 400,000 sf), the coverage ratio moderates somewhat.

City of BramptonNew Industrial Building Site Coverage

30%

32%

34%

36%

38%

40%

42%

44%

> 500,000sf

> 400,000sf

> 300,000sf

> 200,000sf

> 100,000sf

< 100,000sf


GTA West MunicipalitiesNew Industrial Building Site Coverage

30%

32%

34%

36%

38%

40%

42%

44%

> 500,000sf

> 400,000sf

> 300,000sf

> 200,000sf

> 100,000sf

< 100,000sf

Source: Building permits from individual municipalities



O T H E R M A R K E T P L A C E C O N S I D E R A T I O N S In the course of our investigations we solicited the opinion of several industry experts or parties active in the planning, development or transaction of industrial properties in order to identify other pertinent factors that would influence our assessment of employment land requirements in Brampton. The following is a summary of relevant comments that were received through that interview process.

MANUFACTURING With respect to the manufacturing sector, we have compiled the opinion of site selection and property transaction (land & building) professionals from Cushman & Wakefield based in Toronto and the U.S, as well as land development & construction (Orlando Corporation) experts. Key observations sourced from these groups included the following:

Manufacturing Sector Challenges: The manufacturing sector is viewed as exhibiting significant weakness across North America at this time. An example of this weakness can be seen in the employment data previously referenced in Section 3 for the Toronto CMA where the number of jobs has been declining over the past five years. Furthermore, the outlook for the future of North American manufacturing growth is unclear, particularly as it relates to job creation because business owners are generally being driven by competition to enhance the productivity of higher cost labour through investment in technology as opposed to the addition of new jobs and space.

“Off-shoring” of manufacturing jobs to cheaper locales has been a major factor underlying the decline of manufacturing in the GTA and is expected to continue in the future for businesses engaged in production that is less advanced in terms of process and labour skill requirements or where transportation costs are not a significant part of the total product cost.

The impact of the current economic downturn which has resulted in significant upticks in unemployment levels (e.g. the Toronto CMA unemployment rate has risen to 9.8% at present from 6.9% one year ago according to HRSDC) will undoubtedly extend the period of time that would be required to see manufacturing employment rebound beyond the peak level seen in 2004.

Manufacturing Sector Opportunities: Growth that can be envisioned for the manufacturing sector in the Toronto Region will be focused particularly on business groups where a higher employee skill level is required so that the enterprise is less sensitive to higher labour costs. In addition, businesses whose production output is challenged by transportation costs due to weight and bulk considerations also pose opportunities for the future. Examples of sector opportunities offered by interview respondents included the following: advanced manufacturing and materials; environmental and alternative energy; digital gaming and information technology; food processing; recycling & waste.

Impact of Technology Adoption: The trend towards increased adoption of new technology for manufacturing processes will be a significant driver of lower employment density levels on employment land in the future.

Toronto Region Cost Competitiveness: Concerns were cited by U.S. based site selection experts for the cost competitiveness of the Toronto Region at this time when compared with other North America centres, particularly in the southern States, with respect to labour, land and electricity costs.

Automotive Sector Outlook: The outlook for the automotive sector which has been a substantial source of industrial activity in the Toronto Region (including Brampton) in the past is very unclear at this time,



particularly as it relates to the North American manufacturers: General Motors, Chrysler and Ford. For example, both General Motors and Chrysler have undergone considerable downsizing in the past year as a condition of government loans being provided to enable their continuing operations in the short term with substantial impacts on the employed workforce, i.e., both direct and through third party suppliers. As we understand it, the Chrysler Brampton Plant (which employed 4,100 full time workers according to the 2008 Brampton Business Directory) currently employs just over 2,000 workers according to press releases. Rumors are circulating that Fiat (new owners of Chrysler along with the UAW and the U.S. and Canadian Governments) may assemble its branded product at the Brampton plant in the future and that a new paint shop will be constructed on the site, but neither have been confirmed thus far by company representatives.

“Just in Time Requirements”: Despite the urgency commonly placed on the importance of “Just-in-Time” movements of raw materials, components and product for manufacturers, it was suggested that not all business and in fact a significant portion of manufacturing is not JIT sensitive. As a consequence, immediate access to 400-series highways is not a vital requirement of many manufacturers.

Unencumbered Access: Having qualified the matter of JIT requirements for business, it was also indicated that efficient access to highways via good arterial routes which are unencumbered by virtue of not having to pass through congested residential or commercial districts and possess strong capacity for trucks are still important to manufacturers.

Conversion of Older Space: The opinion was offered by experts that much of the older industrial stock in a community cannot be easily converted in a cost effective manner to modern standards required by many businesses.

WAREHOUSE & DISTRIBUTION For the warehouse and distribution segment, we have again compiled the opinion of site selection and property transaction (land & building) professionals from Cushman & Wakefield based in Toronto and the U.S, along land development & construction experts (Orlando Corporation) and a major logistics space builder/operator (AMB Property Corporation). Key observations sourced from these groups included the following:

“Off-Shoring” of Manufacturing: The “off-shoring” of manufacturing for many consumer products to cheaper (foreign) locales has resulted in a substantial increase in the need for warehouse and distribution facilities in North America. Over the foreseeable future, the off-shoring trend is expected to continue with the result that significant growth for warehouse and distribution facilities is anticipated.

Toronto Warehousing Hub: According to a 2009 Prologis report entitled “U.S. and Canada Property Market Review – Midyear Results for 2009”, the Toronto Region ranks among the top 3 or 4 Warehouse & Distribution markets in North America. Furthermore, it was described by AMB as the “Canadian Hub” for warehousing.

The Prologis report also indicated that the Toronto market demonstrated the lowest vacancy rate (Q2 – 2009) among 31 North American markets (4.5% versus an average for 31 markets at 10.0%)

Highway Access: The experts interviewed were agreed that warehouse activity relies on trucking and therefore values stronger highway access as well as proximity to intermodal facilities.

The AMB network of warehouses is typically situated within 8 kilometres of a limited access highway corridor, according to the company representative.



Facility Size Trend: Over the past decade, a trend has been observed towards larger and higher ceiling warehouse buildings including the consolidation of smaller facilities to larger locations. Furthermore, the adoption of new technology and equipment to enhance operations has also been observed.

Employment Density Trend: Given the move to larger facilities and adoption of technology and new equipment, employment density rates are low and have been observed to be declining.

Lot Coverage Trend: Similarly, a trend towards lower lot coverage rates is being seen in response to the need for additional parking and trailer storage. It was suggested that coverage levels were once as high as 60% but are now in the vicinity of 45%.

Building Retrofit Trend: Retrofitting of older buildings for warehouse use can be problematic as they typically offer lower ceiling heights then is currently the norm, as well as too much site coverage, i.e., insufficient space for parking and storage.

Future Trend Outlook: Looking forward, the following insights were offered.

Labour shortages are anticipated as many participants in the labour force are not attracted to work in a warehouse. Consequently, the adoption of technology (e.g., robotics) will continue, resulting in further declines in employee density;

New mega distribution centres (DC’s) will be increasingly rare as only the largest organizations will need them. DC’s under 500,000 square feet will be more the norm;

A move towards some decentralization of DC’s (i.e., regional warehouses) can be envisioned in response to labour supply and transportation cost issues; and,

More value added services may be provided at DC’s in the future. As an example, “postponement” was offered as an illustration of a value added service where the final assembly of SKU’s (stock-keeping units) is deferred to the last minute in order to provide the maximum flexibility to the user and enable a re-routing of product shipments if required.

BRAMPTON EMPLOYMENT LANDS REVIEW OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW 34


S E C T I O N 5 : O F F I C E M A R K E T O V E R V I E W

The office market overview that follows is intended to provide background information regarding the local and regional marketplace. This foundation will assist in determining the prospects for additional office lands in Brampton over the forecast period.

G T A O F F I C E M A R K E T I N V E N T O R Y – 2 0 0 9 Q 2 The Greater Toronto Area has an inventory of approximately 162.8 million sf. This inventory is divided between the Central Area (which includes the Financial Core, Downtown Fringe and Midtown) and the Suburbs (East, North, and West). The Central Area has an inventory of approximately 80 million sf, accounting for just less than half of the total GTA inventory. Importantly, Cushman & Wakefield assigns Vaughan to the “North Suburban” submarket, but for the purposes of this report, it is included in the figures presented for “GTA West”. Therefore, figures reported in this report do not match the standard Cushman & Wakefield definition of “GTA West”.

H I S T O R I C M A R K E T P E R F O R M A N C E The Toronto Suburbs are coming off a period of record low vacancy rates – the 2008 year-end of 6.6% exceeded the previous market low of 6.7% recorded in 2000. Following a relatively strong building cycle that began in the late 1990s, vacancy rates climbed to above 11% by 2002. However, a disciplined development community responded by scaling back new construction. Continued demand for office space from 2003 through 2008 pushed rental rates upward and caused vacancies to decline. Any new supply available was either substantially pre-leased or in high demand upon completion.

The recent recessionary climate has caused firms to scale back real estate in an effort to reduce costs, and leasing activity has cooled compared to the long-run average. In fact, negative absorption (a net decline in occupied space) was recorded during the first half of 2009. On a positive note, the recessionary effects that were protracted through the early to mid-1990s (fuelled by significant over-building), do not exist today. In response to a vacancy rate that climbed to 20% in 1991, there was virtually no new supply added to the market for the next seven years. These conditions are presented in stark contrast to the prevailing market dynamics today, which are characterized by conservative development practices, including limited speculative construction. As a result, the GTA West Suburban market is expected to rebound once employment growth resumes in a meaningful way and an expansionary economic cycle takes hold.

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09Q2

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Absorption New Supply Vacancy Rate

Office Market Conditions – GTA Suburbs

Absorption/New Supply (Mns sf) Vacancy Rate




G T A W E S T A N D B R A M P T O N O F F I C E M A R K E T GTA West (excluding Brampton) comprises a roughly 19% share of the total GTA office market, while Brampton alone accounts for a roughly 2% share of the overall inventory. Brampton has an office inventory of approximately 2.8 million sf, while the remainder of the GTA West market totals 30.9 million sf. Notably, a substantial portion of Brampton’s office inventory is not considered to be “leasable” space, since it is owner-occupied space (often local and regional government). For example, two recently completed office buildings in Churchill Business Park are owner-occupied and are not presently included in the standard (unadjusted) Cushman & Wakefield inventory:

1 President’s Choice Boulevard – the 460,000 sf Loblaw head office.

99 Hereford Street – the 85,000 sf Medtronic head office.

As well, the new 120,000 sf medical/professional building known as Springdale Professional Building (located adjacent to the new Brampton Civic Hospital) is excluded from the Cushman & Wakefield inventory because it is a condominium building. However, despite the fact that these buildings are not included in the Cushman & Wakefield inventory, they have been included in all figures presented in this report for analytic purposes (an adjustment of 665,000 sf has been added to the 2.1 million currently tracked in our quarterly research surveys).

One building excluded from our analysis is the recently completed 200,000 sf 10 Peel Centre Drive expansion for the Region of Peel and Peel Regional Police 21 Division. This public sector space is not considered a form of office demand that generates a need for new “leasable” office space. Conventionally, Municipal, Regional, Provincial and Federal Government office space are not considered in a “needs analysis” of a local office submarket. It may, however, be appropriate to allocate these properties within a larger regional analysis, such as a GTA-wide analysis, since locational decisions are not the foremost driver of new public-sector office space requirements (in other words, these locational decisions are not “market” driven). It is difficult to predict the timing of public sector office expansion, as such events are not triggered by a lease expiry which forces tenants to make real estate decisions at/before a prescribed date.

As such, there exists some variation between reported data from the City of Brampton and the Cushman & Wakefield market survey that is completed on a quarterly basis. Despite these modest variances, it is acknowledged that the Brampton office market is presently only a nominal share of the GTA office picture.

48%

31%19%

2%

Central AreaSuburbs less GTA West*GTA West* less BramptonBrampton

GTA Office Inventory

* Note: GTA West includes Brampton, Mississauga, Oakville, Burlington and VaughanSource: Cushman & Wakefield



Among the eleven major office submarkets across the GTA West Suburbs, Brampton ranks seventh highest in terms of total inventory. The top five in terms of inventory are all office nodes within Mississauga.

G T A W E S T N E W S U P P L Y The overall GTA West market has added some 10.6 million sf since 1999, for an annual average of just over 1 million sf. The leading submarkets have included Airport Corporate Centre (3.4 million sf), Meadowvale (2 million sf) and Hurontario Corridor of Mississauga (1.9 million sf). While Brampton represents an 8% share of the GTA West office market, it has seen a somewhat lower proportionate share of new supply activity since 1999. Brampton has added approximately 665,000 sf of new supply over the last three years, but prior to this, no significant supply had been added since 1991. Importantly, this analysis excludes the 950,000 sf Rogers building (former Nortel building) located at 8200 Dixie Road. Since this project was a conversion of former industrial-type space, it should not be considered comparable to conventional new office demand that generates new supply. The conversion of this building by Rogers was opportunistic – a large, vacant building suited to its requirements – moreso than an indicator of the demand for office space in the City of Brampton.

Office Submarket Inventory in GTA West

012345678

Airport C.C.

Meadowvale

Airport

Hurontario Corr.

Mississauga C.C.

Burlington

Brampton

Oakville

Vaughan

Sheridan

Cooksville


Million sf

8%71%

7%

9%

5%

Brampton Mississauga Oakville

Burlington Vaughan

GTA West* Office Inventory

*Note: GTA West includes Brampton, Mississauga, Oakville, Burlington and VaughanSource: Cushman & Wakefield

6%

73%

11%

6%

4%

Brampton Mississauga Oakville

Burlington Vaughan

GTA West* New Supply 1999-2009



O T H E R M A R K E T P L A C E C O N S I D E R A T I O N S In the course of our investigations, we solicited the opinion of office industry experts participating in the planning, development or transaction of office properties in order to identify other pertinent factors that would influence our assessment of employment land requirements in Brampton. In particular discussions were held with a Cushman & Wakefield office leasing representative active in the GTA West marketplace as well as Orlando Corporation. The following is a summary of relevant comments that were received through that interview process.

Office Market Perception: Historically, Brampton has not been on the radar screen of large space users or leasing representatives contemplating location options in the GTA West marketplace for either single tenant buildings or substantial blocks of space in multi-tenant facilities.

Note: some recent developments suggest the emergence of Brampton as an option for large space users seeking space in a corporate campus environment. Two such projects are an example of this: the Loblaw corporate campus (460,000 sf opened in 2007) and the Medtronic building (85,000 sf opened in 2008) – both single tenant facilities situated in the Churchill Business Park (Bram West Precinct at Mississauga Road & Hwy 407). The previous decision by Rogers in the earlier portion of the decade to acquire the former Nortel industrial space in the Hwy 410 Precinct on Dixie Road could also be viewed as an indicator of corporate space user awareness of Brampton as a location option, although this event was in part an opportunistic decision driven by the availability of an exceptionally large block of space at this location which could not be immediately replicated elsewhere.

Bram West Extension of Meadowvale Corporate Space Market: The Meadowvale Business Park in Mississauga, situated immediately south of the Hwy 407 corridor and the Bram West Precinct, is one of the premiere employment districts in the GTA and a major focus of suburban office activity in the GTA West marketplace. Discussions with leasing representatives suggest that the number of large available sites for corporate office campus development is dwindling in this area and will be exhausted in the foreseeable future. Consequently, it is viewed that the Bram West Precinct is a natural extension of this employment area and that it will benefit in the short to medium term by attracting companies seeking large office sites and facilities in a suburban corporate campus environment.

Multi-Tenant Building Market: With respect to the opportunity for major multi-tenant office buildings (exceeding 20,000 square feet) capable of accommodating larger tenants requiring entire floors of office space, Brampton is not viewed as an option at this time by leasing experts given the myriad of options available at locations found elsewhere in the GTA West market. Other established office nodes offer strong location characteristics including regional access, public transit, amenities and a more central location within the region.

Highway 401/407 Strategic Advantage: Proximity to both Highways 401 and 407 is viewed as being a primary strategic advantage for Brampton at this time related to the attraction of large corporate users of office space that draw from a GTA-wide labour pool. Bram West in particular is able to provide tenants and their employees with superior regional access via the two primary highway corridors crossing the GTA from east to west. Furthermore, the proximity of Hwy 407 offers an alternative to the Hwy 401 corridor which is prone to significant traffic congestion at peak periods of the day on a regular basis. Relief from highway traffic congestion is a significant tenant concern that Bram West is able to address. It will therefore enable the precinct to gain significant traction in the future as a corporate office location



Other Brampton Office Options: Beyond the Bram West precinct, other future options for office development locations in Brampton that were cited through the interview process included the following:

Lands in the vicinity of Highways 410 & 407, including Steeles Avenue, by virtue of the regional access available to this area along with existing commercial amenities; and,

The southeasterly portion of the City where access is available to Pearson Airport along with Highways 407, 427, and 401.

Central Area Office Market Challenges: With respect to Downtown Brampton, the opinion was offered that the inability of the Central Area to provide a significant block of land for development as required by corporate users and its accessibility and visibility constraints in relation to the highway system will render it problematic as an office site in the foreseeable future.

BRAMPTON EMPLOYMENT LANDS REVIEW BRAMPTON EMPLOYMENT LAND 39


S E C T I O N 6 : B R A M P T O N E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D

The objective of this section of the report is to set out the quantum of Employment Land that exists in the Brampton, as well as the spatial distribution of these lands across the City. We have examined the experience seen to date for the absorption of lands by the marketplace and the level of employment density realized through development. As well, we have identified the level of competitive supply offered elsewhere within the western portion of the Greater Toronto Area.

E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D S D E F I N E D For the purposes of this analysis, our investigation has utilized the City’s inventory of employment land as presented within the November 2008 Hemson Consulting report. We understand the inventory is based upon a parcel-by-parcel listing of the City’s land supply that has been reviewed and standardized by Hemson Consulting in concert with the City’s planning and economic development staff (see page 3 of the Hemson Report).

As explained by the Hemson Consulting report (pp. 1), employment land in Brampton consists of mainly land extensive, low-rise industrial-type building space. However, the employment lands now accommodate a much wider range of economic uses than was once the case, including: manufacturing and distribution; warehousing; research & development; commercial, institutional and accessory retail uses; and increasingly, community facilities and places of worship. Much of this space is oriented towards the transportation network serving the City and Region, particularly the major 400-series highways in the vicinity and arterial roadways, but also including intermodal rail facilities and Pearson International Airport.

The specific definition for Employment Lands utilized by Hemson Consulting consists of the following:

Lands designated for either Industrial, Business Corridor or Office use in the land use schedule (Schedule A) to the City of Brampton Official Plan (2006) and identified as being within the Employment Precincts shown in the City’s urban structure (Schedule 1: City Concept);

Lands in the Vales North Special Policy Area; and,

A small number of other sites that are outside of the Employment Precincts, yet designated for employment uses in various Secondary Plans throughout Brampton.

E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D S Q U A N T I F I E D The following two exhibits summarize the inventory of employment lands across 13 Precincts of Brampton. It is based on the City’s Employment Land Inventory, although as we understand it, adjustments were made on an as required basis by City Staff and Hemson Consulting. In total, 1,816 parcels comprising 4,280 hectares (net) constitute the inventory. For these purposes, we understand that the net land area is the area of actual buildings and the building lot. It excludes uses such as roads, storm water management ponds and other services, which is typically 20% of the gross land area (Hemson Consulting, pp. 35).



Vacant and Occupied Land in Brampton's Employment Areas Number of Total Share

Employment Area Parcels Area (ha) Total Occupied Vacant Developed

Airport Intermodal 613 1,680 1,515 1,319 196 87%

Bram East 55 329 112 32 81 28%

Bram West 69 947 532 115 417 22%

Bramalea South Gateway 184 350 323 310 13 96%

Central Area 90 136 134 134 0 100%

Downtown North 3 5 5 3 2 69%

Huronontario South 13 23 23 23 0 98%

Highway 410 458 743 686 651 35 95%

Highway 410 N 14 138 91 6 84 7%

Highway 427 99 770 469 12 457 3%

McLaughlin North 20 38 35 33 2 95%

Northwest Sandalwood 113 284 276 210 66 76%

Vales North 44 91 23 10 13 43%

Scattered Sites 41 91 54 29 26 53%

Totals 1,816 5,623 4,280 2,888 1,392 67%

Source: November 2008 Hemson Consulting Report & Brampton Employment Land Inventory

Net Area (ha)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Airport Intermodal

Highway 410

Bram West

Highway 427

Bramalea S. G.

Northwest Swd.

Central Area

Bram East

Highway 410 N

Occupied Vacant

Employment Land Inventory – Net HectaresBrampton Employment Precincts

Note: The four smallest Precincts are excluded from this exhibit for axis scale purposesSource: City of Brampton Economic Development Office Employer Census, 2007

Employment Land Inventory (ha)

Date: 2009 09 08: MKTDEMAND&DEVT_EMPLOYLANDS.gws

0 1 2 3 4 5

Kilometres

PLANNING, DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT

HER

ITAG

E R

OAD

EMBLETON

WIN

STO

N C

HU

RC

HIL

L B

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RD QUEEN

MIS

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WANLESS DRIVE

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BOVAIRD DRIVE WEST

McL

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HWY. 407

AVENUE

STREET

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WEST

BOVAIRD DRIVE EAST

MAI

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COUNTRYSIDE DR

DIX

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BRAM

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STEELES

McL

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STEELES

MAYFIELD ROAD

QUEEN

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BRAM

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AIR

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CASTLEMORE ROAD

STREET EAST

HU

MBE

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0

EMPLOYMENT LANDS BY EMPLOYMENT AREA

BUSINESS PARK TYPE

AIRPORT INTERMODAL

BRAMEAST

BRAMWEST

BRAMALEA SOUTH GATEWAY

CENTRAL AREA

DOWNTOWN NORTH

HURONTARIO SOUTH

HWY 410

HWY 410 NORTH

HWY 427

MCLAUGHLIN NORTH

NORTH WEST SANDALWOOD

VALES NORTH

NONE

CITY OF TORONTO

CITY OFVAUGHAN

TOWN OF CALEDON

TOWNOF

HALTONHILLS

CITY OF MISSISSAUGA

LEGEND

Vacant Land ByBusiness Park

Based upon parcel and related data extracted Feb. 1, 2008

APRIL 15, 2008EMPLOY_LANDS_REVIEW_APRIL08.GWS

BOVAIRD DRIVE WEST

HE

RIT

AG

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D

EMBLETON

WIN

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QUEEN STREET

AVENUE WEST

MAVIS R

D

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BOVAIRD DRIVE EAST

MA

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STEELES

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Additional observations for the inventory data include:

Approximately 2,888 ha (net) were deemed occupied, representing 67% of the inventory. As we understand it, Hemson Consulting endeavored to update the City’s 2007 base inventory to reflect an occupied land inventory as of Summer 2008;

Vacant lands constitute the remaining 1,392 net hectares (mid-year 2008 estimate);

Discussions with City Economic Development Staff indicate that a very limited amount of additional vacant land has been absorbed by the market since the second half of 2008 as a result of the recent downturn in the economy. Consequently, our analysis that follows assumes that the Employment Land Inventory data reflected the available vacant supply level as of the end of 2008;

For analysis purposes, Hemson also assumes that a small portion of the designated supply of Employment Land will remain vacant over the long-term, i.e., typically about 5% of the total occupied and vacant stock (Hemson Consulting November 2008 report, pp. 39). We have accepted this assumption. Consequently, the net effective vacant supply amounts to 1,180 ha.

The two largest Employment Land Precincts (Airport Intermodal and Highway 410) are relatively mature in that the vast majority of their lands are occupied. It is also noteworthy that combined, these two areas constitute over 51% of the total Employment Land supply in the City. The most mature of the Precincts (those with limited amounts vacant land indicated by red in the exhibit – i.e. Highway 410, Bramalea, NW Sandalwood and the Central Area) generally have limited land availability for new development and therefore are constrained in terms of their ability to accommodate larger space users.

Approximately 77% of the available vacant land in Employment Land Areas are situated in three Precincts, including Highway 427 (Area 47 - 457 ha vacant in the northeast portion of the City), Bram West (417 ha vacant in the southwest portion of the City immediately north of Mississauga’s Meadowvale Business Park) and 196 ha in the largest Precinct, Airport Intermodal. Notably, the inventory data referenced above does not include any lands within Northwest Brampton or additional land that might be realized from Northeast Brampton in the event that the westerly boundary of the Highway 427 Precinct (Area 47) was extended to Clarkway Drive.

I N D U S T R I A L L A N D A B S O R P T I O N T R E N D S The following exhibit tracks the annual level of industrial land absorption in Brampton over the past 31 years. As we understand it, land is deemed to have been absorbed (by the City’s definition) at the point of a new building permit having been issued for a vacant property. The pace of industrial land absorption has fluctuated over time in keeping with up and down-turns in the general

Industrial Land Absorption City of Brampton – Hectares Absorbed

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08Source: City of Brampton

Hectares Absorbed



economy. For example, absorption over the past 31 years has been as high as over 160 ha as recently as 2000, but dipped two years later to approximately 20 ha in 2002 following the terrorist events of September 11th 2001, and the economic tumult associated with the “dot com bust”.

It is our opinion that when considering the long-term requirements for land and space in a given market, there is considerable benefit to be realized by reviewing past market trends over a similarly long-term period which takes into consideration a full cycle of the economy including strong and weaker market performance.

Over the entire 31 year period, the exhibit illustrates that we have experienced close to two full economic cycles from a real estate perspective in Brampton. The first “trough” is indicated by the sluggish period during the latter 1970’s when oil supply interruptions impacted economic growth and ending with the economic recession of the early 1990’s as the subsequent “trough”. The most recent downturn initiated during the second half of 2008 indicates the current “trough”, signalizing the end of a second full economic cycle. It is noteworthy that the recession of the early 1980’s did not appear to have a lasting impact on Brampton land trends, and similarly the downturn in the early part of the current decade shows itself as a temporary blip in the Brampton market.

Over the 31 years for which the City was able to provide data, the average rate of absorption was 64.4 ha per year. Similarly, during the 1992 to 2008 period which reflects a full economic cycle from an industrial real estate perspective, the average rate of industrial land absorption amounted to 44.3 ha per year. The Hemson Consulting report (Pg 14) makes reference to absorption of industrial (employment) land over the 1995 to 2005 period as being 75 ha per year. We would suggest that this rate be considered with caution as it contemplates a period that was generally “up-beat” in terms of land absorption rates. For example, the period following 2005 saw a significant downturn in absorption as off-shoring of manufacturing capacity took hold and the U.S. economy started to slow. Similarly, the five years of significant weakness seen during the early 1990’s is not reflected in this number.

E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D A B S O R P T I O N W I T H I N A D J O I N I N G G T A W E S T C O M M U N I T I E S The following exhibit is intended to illustrate the rate of Employment Land absorption for Brampton in relation to other GTA West jurisdictions. It should be noted that caution must be exercised when comparing absorption rates between different municipalities because there may be inconsistencies in the quality and reporting of the data by municipalities that

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Mississauga

Brampton

Vaughan

Milton

Burlington

Oakville

Halton Hills

Employment Land Absorption – Select GTA Municipalities (2000-2008)

Average Hectares Per Year

Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd., based on Employment Land Database and data provided by individual municipalities.



affects the consultants ability to draw fair comparisons (e.g., in terms of employment land definition or the point at which a parcel of land can be deemed to have been absorbed by the market). Given these concerns, a substantial amount of time and effort would be required to ensure that comparable time-series data is available to accurately compare Brampton with other GTA West communities. For this reason, we have utilized available data provided by Hemson Consulting which compares Employment Land absorption for Brampton with several nearby jurisdictions.

The information provided by Hemson considered the 2000 to 2008 time period which as previously indicated, comprises in our view only a portion of a full real estate cycle. We have been informed that it is based on surveys of municipal staff, and that efforts were made to ensure that the data provided is comparable in terms of definition and quality. Hemson data includes all forms of development within an employment area – not just industrial development. For this reason, the average rate indicated for Brampton on the exhibit (approximately 87 ha per year) is not consistent with the industrial absorption seen for the same time period (approximately 70 ha per year). Having said this, the information suggests that Brampton has ranked 2nd to Mississauga in terms of average annual land absorption over the past eight years.

V A C A N T E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D W I T H I N A D J O I N I N G G T A W E S T C O M M U N I T I E S The following exhibit compares the supply of vacant and designated Employment Lands that are available among the selected GTA West communities, as well as the supply of vacant (designated) and proposed Employment Lands for the same jurisdictions. Land areas for each municipality have been identified through discussions with local economic development and planning staff and have not been adjusted for long-term vacancy estimates. Furthermore, proposed employment lands reflect those which we understand are currently proceeding through the planning approval process and will potentially be confirmed in the foreseeable future. Brampton finds itself in a relatively strong position at the present time in terms of supply of designated and vacant land. It ranks second only to Vaughan in terms of available supply at 25% of the combined total for all eight GTA West municipalities (1,392 ha versus 1,422 ha for Vaughan).

With respect to the combination of vacant (designated) plus proposed Employment Land Supply, the Brampton Share of the combined total for the GTA West communities falls to 18% as result of there being significant amounts of additional land proposed in several communities including Milton (+608 ha), Vaughan (+563 ha), Oakville (+520 ha), Halton Hills (+272 ha) and Caledon (+201 ha). Consequently, Vaughan exhibits a significantly higher share of potential land. Importantly, for these purposes, we have not made any assumptions regarding the designation of additional Employment Lands in Brampton.

Vacant Employment Land in GTA West

25%26%

15%

12% 7%

5%

5%

5%

Brampton Vaughan Mississauga

Milton Burlington Caledon

Halton Hills Oakville

Vacant & Proposed Employment Land in GTA West

18%

26%

11%

17%

5% 6%

7%

10%

Brampton Vaughan Mississauga

Milton Burlington Caledon

Halton Hills Oakville

Source: Individual Municipalities



B R A M P T O N E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D D E N S I T Y

The following exhibit presents current information available for a selection of municipalities in GTA West and Central markets as it relates to the density of jobs per ha for Employment Land Employment as defined by Hemson Consulting. This refers to jobs accommodated primarily in low-rise industrial-type building space and multiples, the vast majority of which are located within business parks and industrial areas (see Hemson Consulting November 2008 Report, pp. 22). The density rate information referenced above excludes jobs attributed to Major Office Buildings as well as Population Related Employment.

For reasons similar to those cited above with respect to the comparison of Land Absorption among communities, we have utilized available information already developed and published by Hemson Consulting in its Sustainable Halton Report concerning Employment Land markets (dated April 2009) in order to ensure consistency in terms of reporting quality and definition of data.

The exhibit illustrates that Brampton employment density currently stands at 38 persons per net ha and is similar to rates found in Oakville (40), Mississauga (39) and Halton Hills (38). This relatively low level of density when compared to other jurisdictions such as Toronto, Vaughan and Burlington is in part a reflection of the relative proliferation of less labour intensive and dense economic activity such as warehouse and logistics operations.

In the course of our investigations, we have also identified several pertinent observations respecting Employment Land Employment density levels within the recently completed Peel Region Employment and Employment Lands Study dated August 2009.

The median density for a substantial universe of Manufacturers in Mississauga and Brampton combined was estimated at 45 persons per net ha;

The median density for a substantial universe of Transportation-related companies in Mississauga and Brampton combined was estimated at 33 persons per net ha;

The median density for a substantial universe of Wholesale Trade-related companies in Mississauga and Brampton combined was estimated at 37 persons per net ha;

Finally, the authors of the Peel Region analysis published an interim report in October 2008 in which it provided average densities for several industry categories of Employment Land activity in Brampton and

Employment Land Employment Density Employment Type Employees Per Net Hectare

010203040506070

Richmond Hill

Burlington

Vaughan

Toronto

Oakville

Mississauga

Brampton

Halton Hills

Milton

Source: Sustainable Halton Report 3.07, Hemson Consulting Ltd, April 2009

Employees Per Ha

Employment Land Employment Density Employment Type Employees Per Net Hectare

010203040506070

Richmond Hill

Burlington

Vaughan

Toronto

Oakville

Mississauga

Brampton

Halton Hills

Milton

Source: Sustainable Halton Report 3.07, Hemson Consulting Ltd, April 2009

Employees Per Ha



Mississauga. However, these averages were not carried over to the final report dated August 2009 due to concerns for data quality (i.e. whether the sample size of the businesses that could be evaluated for the purposes of the study were sufficient to provide a reasonable representation of typical density levels to found in Brampton). Having said this, the sample findings indicated for Brampton and Mississauga are interesting to the extent that they demonstrate the possible array of density levels that exist, depending on the industry sector and nature of the specific operation. An illustration of the findings for several industry groups typically found with Employment Lands is as follows:

Warehouse and Storage – 11 to 18 persons per net ha;

Truck Transportation – 30 to 33 persons per net ha;

Manufacturing – 52 to 59 persons per net ha;

Wholesale trade – 37 to 43 persons per net ha.

BRAMPTON EMPLOYMENT LANDS REVIEW COMPETITIVE EMPLOYMENT LAND ENVIRONMENT 46


S E C T I O N 7 : C O M P E T I T I V E E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D E N V I R O N M E N T

The analysis that follows provides an outline of the characteristics of employment lands located in proximity to the City of Brampton. It focuses on adjoining municipal jurisdictions that are considered to be directly competitive to Brampton’s employment lands and references information available for their current and future employment land requirements up to 2031 and post 2031. Furthermore, the analysis includes an investigation of existing and proposed official plan policies and growth management policies. The characteristics of employment lands in these adjacent municipalities can potentially influence the market conditions, transportation corridors, employment areas, growth management characteristics and land absorption within the City of Brampton. Note: Please refer to the attached map that illustrates existing, planned and future employment areas in the City of Brampton and surrounding municipalities.

M I S S I S S A U G A Key employment areas are located along 400 series highways and near Pearson Airport. Mississauga’s existing employment areas are predominately located along Highway 401, 403 and 407 and to a lesser extent, the western end of the QEW. These employment districts range in size and configuration, and include a mixture of office, commercial, and industrial development. Most of these larger employment districts are nodal in form and are comprised of large development blocks. The vast majority of the interface between Mississauga and Brampton is characterized by employment lands in Mississauga. It is also noted that the Meadowvale Employment Area extends south from Highway 401 along two railway corridors, which converge at Britannia Road.

Smaller employment areas are dispersed through the City along major roads. There are other smaller employment districts dispersed throughout the City along major arterial roads, including The Queensway and Dundas Street, and along rail corridors. These smaller employment districts are linear in form and often include commercial retail uses in addition to traditional employment uses. They were generally developed in the 1950’s and 1960’s and are characterized as generally smaller facilities with lower ceiling heights.

Mississauga does not have any new proposed employment areas. Mississauga has not identified any new employment areas, as the majority of the City is substantially planned. One possible exception is the future consideration of lands to be annexed from Halton Region to the City of Mississauga west of Nine Line adjacent to Highway 407. These lands, if annexed, may ultimately be planned for employment opportunities.

C A L E D O N Key employment areas are located in Bolton, Mayfield West and Tullamore. These Rural Service Centres have been identified to accommodate employment growth in Caledon. While there are small areas of vacant employment lands within each of these areas, the Town has identified an employment supply deficiency to 2031 and is considering options to expand the employment areas for each of these Rural Service Centres. It is noteworthy that these three Rural Service Centres are located along the City of Brampton’s municipal boundary. Furthermore, the two most significant future employment growth areas are in close proximity to a future 400 series Highway, including the future Highway 410 and 427 extensions.

Bolton and Mayfield West are the key employment growth areas in the Town. Bolton is the largest Rural Service Centre and has been identified to accommodate the majority of employment growth in Caledon to 2031. Two alternative land use options are being considered by Council that would expand the urban area boundary to the west of Coleraine Drive to accommodate approximately 620 gross acres of

Drawing Number:

C1

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Phone: (905) 738-8080 FAX: (905) 738-6637

Vaughan, Ontario. L4K 5K8

201 Millway Avenue, Unit 19,

File Number:

Date Drawn:

Drawn By:

Scale:

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EMPLOYMENT LANDS POST 2031

4942/concepts/C1 employment lands.dgn

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03 NOV 09 Revised Brampton employment areas

13 NOV 09 Revised employment areas

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VAUGHAN

TOWN OF

CALEDON

CITY OF

CITY OF

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CITY OF

MISSISSAUGA

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TOWN OF

MILTON

TOWN OF

HALTON HILLS

TOWN OF

CITY OF

BRAMPTON



additional employment growth. A decision by Council as to the preferred option is anticipated to be made in the fall of 2009.

Mayfield West has been planned to accommodate a further extension of the 410 into Caledon and existing employment areas are planned along this future highway. The Town has identified that additional land in Mayfield West is required to accommodate employment growth to 2031 and will be accommodated by expanding Mayfield West to include lands north of the existing planned community and west of Highway 10. Council is considering a series of growth options for additional employment lands in this expansion area.

H A L T O N H I L L S The key employment district in Halton Hills is along Highway 401. This employment corridor is split into two phases. Phase 1 comprises lands west of Trafalgar Road and Phase 2 comprises lands east of Trafalgar Road. This employment area is linear in form and presently extends from Highway 401 to Steeles Avenue.

Smaller local employment districts exist in Georgetown and Acton. There are existing employment areas centrally located within Acton and Georgetown, which are in proximity to rail corridors. These districts are nodal in form and contain parcels of varying size.

Future employment areas to 2031 are planned along the Highway 401 corridor. The Sustainable Halton initiative envisions an expansion to the 401 employment lands north of Steeles Avenue along the 401 corridor. These lands are intended to accommodate employment land requirements to 2031.

Future strategic employment areas are proposed along Brampton’s municipal boundary. ROPA 38 proposes “Future Strategic Employment Lands” adjacent to Brampton’s municipal border north of Steeles Avenue and west of Winston Churchill Boulevard, which is to accommodate employment growth beyond 2031.

M I L T O N Key employment areas are north and south of Highway 401 and along the rail corridor. These large districts comprise significant lands for employment uses on the north and south side of Highway 401. Another larger district exists in the west portion of the Town, south of the rail corridor. Employment growth in these areas has been steady and is generally centered on the Highway interchanges throughout the Town.

Planned employment uses in Milton are diverse. The Town has planned for its employment districts to include “Business Park”, “Employment” and “Industrial” areas. Each designation has various permissions and is intended to provide certain specific types of employment uses.

Future strategic employment areas are planned along Highway 401 and 407. The proposed employment expansion area is located in southwest Milton along the rail corridor. ROPA 38 proposes “Future Strategic Employment Lands” along the 407 and 401 corridors.



T O R O N T O Key employment districts are located along 400 series Highways and around Pearson Airport. The City of Toronto’s employment districts in north Etobicoke are characterized by large districts in proximity to Pearson Airport and linear employment districts along Highway 400, 401, 409 and 27. Another large employment district exists in north Etobicoke between Finch and Steeles Avenue west of Highway 400.

The City of Toronto’s employment districts are well served by highway and rail corridors. The majority of the City’s employment districts are in close proximity to 400 series highways. The large employment districts are also served by rail.

Employment areas are substantially built out, but have undergone redevelopment. In north Etobicoke most of the employment areas are built-out. However, some areas have experienced redevelopment for new employment uses, particularly along Highway 400 and Highway 401.

V A U G H A N Key employment districts are located in proximity to the CP and CN Intermodal Facilities. Vaughan’s key employment areas are in proximity to the CP and CN Intermodal facilities. These districts are also in close proximity to existing or planned 400 series highways and are large in scale.

Large employment districts are along the 427, 407 and 400 highway corridors. These large employment districts border the 400 series highways in the form of large employment blocks. These districts have considerable existing vacant capacity and are within the City of Vaughan’s Urban Area.

The Vaughan Enterprise Zone is a significant future employment area. This area constitutes a significant portion of Vaughan’s employment land supply. Development has been held up by the EA process associated with the extension to Highway 427. Furthermore, this area is subject to further secondary planning work and infrastructure planning which have now commenced as part of the City’s Official Plan review process. This area, once planned, will provide a significant supply of employment land to the GTA markets.

Future employment areas include lands along Highway 400 north of Teston Road. City of Vaughan OPA 637 proposes to provide a Highway 400 employment district north of Teston Road. This OPA has not been approved by the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and is presently before the OMB. These lands include a long corridor between Teston Road and King Township on the east and west side of Highway 400. The City, through its Official Plan Review Process has indicated that over 80% of the employment growth in Vaughan can be achieved within the existing urban area and no new employment lands are needed beyond these lands to 2031.

York Region identifies “Future Strategic Employment Lands” north of Nashville Road adjacent to Highway 50. These lands have been proposed to accommodate employment land needs beyond 2031. This area would be considered an expansion to the existing Vaughan Enterprise Zone.

BRAMPTON EMPLOYMENT LANDS REVIEW ROADS AND INFRASTRUCTURE 49


S E C T I O N 8 : R O A D S A N D I N F A S T R U C T U R E

G T A W E S T C O R R I D O R The GTA West Corridor is an infrastructure corridor that is presently under review by the Ministry of Transportation as part of an Environmental Assessment process. The objective of the EA is to examine the long-term transportation problems within the study area and identify solutions to provide better linkages and connections between Guelph, Vaughan, Milton and Brampton.

The Corridor has been identified in a number of provincial and regional documents. Conceptual alignments are identified in both the Growth Plan and Metrolinx Plan. The Metrolinx Plan identifies the GTA West Corridor as a corridor under study. York Region’s Draft Official Plan conceptually identifies this corridor as a Proposed Controlled Access Highway with ultimate connection to Highway 400 and contains policies that support the planning for and early construction of this corridor. The following discussion is a more detailed analysis of how this Corridor is characterized by the Ministry of Transportation, the Region of Peel and the City of Brampton.

MTO GTA WEST CORRIDOR PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT An EA commenced in 2007 for this corridor and defined a Preliminary Study Area and Areas of Interest within the study area. This study is in the preliminary stages of the environmental assessment process. Various studies and investigations are underway to assess existing environmental conditions, transportation issues, constraints and opportunities. In addition, the Ministry is considering the range of alternatives for this corridor.

The Areas of Interest described below, include those areas within or in proximity to the City of Brampton that have been identified in relation to this transportation corridor.

Area of Interest #2- North of Major Mackenzie Drive to Kirby Road, east of Highway 50, west of Kleinburg, City of Vaughan. These lands have been identified to accommodate future employment growth in the City of Vaughan north of the Vaughan Enterprise Zone and surrounding the intermodal facility.

Area of Interest #3-South of Mayfield Road, west of Regional Road 50. This area is part of Secondary Plan Area 47 in the City of Brampton and is designated to accommodate employment growth.

Area of Interest #4-West of Coleraine Dr. to Centreville Creek Road, north of Mayfield Road to Healey Road, Town of Caledon. These lands are predominantly designated agricultural and greenbelt lands with an industrial subdivision east of Coleraine abutting this area.

Area of Interest #5- Mayfield West Secondary Plan Area, Town of Caledon. This area is of interest due to proposed land use changes and the potential expansion to Mayfield West as a result of the secondary plan process.

Area of Interest #6- South of Mayfield Road, east of Winston Churchill Boulevard, City of Brampton. This area is Northwest Brampton and is an area under study in relation to the provision of a north-south transportation corridor under the Halton-Peel Boundary Area Transportation Study.

Area of Interest #7- West of Winston Churchill Boulevard South, Town of Halton Hills. This area comprises lands in Halton Hills adjacent to the existing employment area in Brampton north of Highway 407.



The above areas of interest will be considered in relation to the studies and consideration of alternatives for this corridor. Each of the above areas, through more detailed study, may influence the City of Brampton’s transportation planning in these areas. Discussions with Ministry Staff have indicated that the ultimate form, location and character of this infrastructure corridor is unknown and therefore, the associated timeline for planning and ultimate construction is not known at this time.

PEEL REGION The proposed ROPA 24 illustrates a “Strategic Infrastructure Study Area” (“SISA”) that extends through south Caledon and traverses a portion of northeast Brampton. This corridor is characterized as an area of further study in relation to the GTA West Corridor and related transportation, utilities and employment lands.

A Peel Council Resolution was passed that directed staff to take appropriate measures to protect the GTA West Corridor through the Peel Region Official Plan Review process and directed staff to review and monitor development in neighbouring municipalities that would jeopardize or preclude this corridor.

Policies concerning the SISA, which are found in Section 5.7 of ROPA 24 indicate that significant population and employment growth will increase the demand for infrastructure and the demand for land that can support infrastructure. It is an objective of these policies that Region Council define or refine the conceptual area based on the outcome of the GTA West study and shall not approve regional official plan amendments for development applications that would preclude the study’s outcome. Furthermore, Regional Council should direct area municipalities to revise policies to restrict land uses and shall only approve development applications within the SISA that will not preclude the outcome of the GTA West Environmental Assessment.

In the Region of Peel’s Draft Official Plan, Section 5.6.2.11 states that Regional Council will “support the study and protection of a “GTA West” SISA for potential infrastructure and employment lands needs…”

The GTA West Corridor was included as part of the Region of Peel’s request for federal funding for infrastructure projects in January 2009. This request included a proposed projected construction timeline of between 2009 and 2020 at a capital cost of $1 - 2 billon.

CITY OF BRAMPTON OFFICIAL PLAN The City of Brampton’s Official Plan acknowledges the Province’s identification of the GTA West Transportation Corridor. It contains policies that recognize that this corridor is to extend from Guelph to the area of Highway 50 and beyond in the vicinity of Brampton’s northern boundary. Section 4.13 also recognizes that the Ministry of Transportation has included the process of examining the Brampton North-South Transportation Corridor and potential linkages to the GTA-West Transportation Corridor as part of the first stage of an EA study. The above noted official plan policies are under appeal to the OMB.

CITY OF BRAMPTON’S TRANSPORTATION AND TRANSIT MASTER PLAN The City of Brampton’s Transportation and Transit Master Plan (TTMP) identifies the GTA West Conceptual Alignment, which is generally north of Brampton along its boundary with Caledon. The 2009 TTMP’s recommended transportation networks are independent from the corridor and therefore the Study’s recommendations are not contingent on the provision of this Provincial corridor. The recommended alternative transportation improvements were tested with and without the GTA West Corridor being in place by 2031 for the purpose of assessing their impact on employment land potential. The results indicate that the inclusion of the corridor to the overall road network caused 13% diversion of peak direction westbound traffic from arterial roads between Mayfield Road and Queen Street.

Drawing Number:

C1

REVISIONS LIST

Phone: (905) 738-8080 FAX: (905) 738-6637

Vaughan, Ontario. L4K 5K8

201 Millway Avenue, Unit 19,

File Number:

Date Drawn:

Drawn By:

Scale:

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WESTON CONSULTING

GROUP INC.

4942

22 DEC 09

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LEGEND

MUNICIPAL BOUNDARY

FUTURE EMPLOYMENT LANDS

400 SERIES HIGHWAYS

RAILWAYS

GTA WEST CORRIDOR STUDY AREA

GO STATION

GTA WEST CORRIDOR

400 SERIES HIGHWAYS - PROPOSED

CORRIDOR (CONCEPTUAL)NORTH - SOUTH TRANSPORTATION

EMPLOYMENT LANDS POST 2031

4942/concepts/C1 employment lands.dgn

DESIGNATED EMPLOYMENT LANDS

03 NOV 09 Revised Brampton employment areas

13 NOV 09 Revised employment areas

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BOSTON

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No. 32

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CITY OF

MISSISSAUGA

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TOWN OF

MILTON

TOWN OF

HALTON HILLS

TOWN OF

CITY OF

BRAMPTON



N O R T H / S O U T H T R A N S P O R T A T I O N C O R R I D O R & B R A M W E S T P A R K W A Y The North South Transportation Corridor (NSTC) and related Bram West Parkway are identified in a number of regional and municipal documents. The new NSTC is proposed to extend from Mayfield Road in Brampton to Highway 407 / 401 in Brampton or Halton Hills. The specific location, width, and lane configuration of this NSTC is subject to further study and has not been determined. The related Bram West Parkway corridor connects Highway 407 to the new NSTC. The specific location, width and lane configuration of this corridor is also subject to further study, but based on the City’s Official Plan mapping, is not illustrated to extend north of the Credit River. Certain alignment options, which are described in detail below, envision the NSTC and the Bram West Parkway in the same alignment and therefore would be considered a single transportation corridor. The following documents identify how the NSTC and Bram West Parkway is characterized.

HALTON/PEEL BOUNDARY AREA TRANSPORTATION STUDY (HPBATS) The Halton-Peel Boundary Area Transportation Study (HPBATS) is a joint study between the Region of Peel, Region of Halton, City of Brampton, Town of Caledon and the Town of Halton Hills. The study was originally initiated in 2007 in response to commitments made by the Region of Halton through ROPA 25. The study was delayed to accommodate the needs of Halton Region as part of the Sustainable Halton initiative which set out to determine the proposed population and employment in Halton to 2031. The study was reinitiated in July 2009 in order to inform the long-term (i.e. 2021-2031) transportation network. The study will satisfy the Master Plan requirements (phase 1 and 2) of the Class EA process which was initiated by the City of Brampton.

The HPBATS has identified the need for a North-South Transportation Corridor (NSTC) within the study area. There are three options for the NSTC and several sub-options, which include the following:

The Brampton Arterial (BA) option consists of a north-south arterial generally located between Winston Churchill Boulevard and Mississauga Road from Mayfield West to 407 and includes the following sub-options;

o BA-1 retains the 407 ETR interchange on the proposed Bram West Parkway Alignment.

o BA-2 also provides Hwy 401 connection via Winston Churchill.

o BA-3 also provides Hwy 401 connection via Financial Drive and Mississauga Road.

o BA-4 retains the 407 ETR interchange and provides partial interchange with 401.

Brampton Freeway (BF) consists of a north-south freeway generally between Winston Churchill Boulevard and Mississauga Road from Mayfield West to 407 and includes the following sub-options;

BF-1 retains the connection directly to the 407 generally on the proposed Bram West Parkway Alignment.

BF-2 also provides partial freeway to freeway interchange with Hwy 401.



Halton-Peel Freeway (HPF) option consists of the freeway extending from Mayfield Road in Brampton into southwest Halton and ultimately connects to Highway 401 and 407 east of 9th line. This option would also include a second access to 407 provided between Mississauga Road and Winston Churchill Boulevard.

A preferred transportation network has not yet been recommended, but is expected to be presented at the second Public Information Centre for the HPBATS study in late November 2009.

The preliminary findings of the Brampton Arterial option indicate that it would provide sufficient capacity to support development in Brampton but insufficient capacity to support development in the study area as a whole. This Brampton Arterial option requires additional north-south arterial improvements in Halton and its limited connectivity hinders the potential for multi-modality.

The Brampton Freeway option would have a significant impact on Bram West and the Meadowvale employment area in Mississauga. Preliminary findings have resulted in questions concerning the feasibility of a link to Highway 401 with only partial connections. This option is identified as unlikely to be approved by MTO and similar to the Brampton Arterial option the limited connectivity hinders the potential for multi-modality.

The Halton-Peel Freeway option provides the maximum capacity to support growth with direct links to both the 401 and 407. This option would provide the least overall congestion in both Halton and Peel while providing superior goods movement. This is the only option that serves both Halton and Peel regions and includes a potential provincial role.

This study also identifies a series of environmental constraints and opportunities to developing this corridor. The Credit River valley is a significant environmental feature, is part of the Provincial Greenbelt Area and is within both Peel and Halton's Natural Heritage System. Similarly, there are a limited number of Silver Creek crossings since it is within the Halton Region Greenlands System and the Hungry Hollow Ravine ESA. Additionally there is a Provincially Significant Wetland within the study area located at 5th Sideroad and 10th line as well as a designated Unique Community at Queen St. W and Mississauga Road.

A Public Information Centre was held in September 2009 regarding the status of the study. Next steps will include ongoing refinement of the technical analysis based on input received from stakeholders and the public since the last PIC and stakeholder workshop. A second stakeholder workshop and PIC is scheduled for late November to seek input on the preliminary evaluation results. The final report is anticipated to be completed by February 2010.

PEEL REGION

Peel Region has identified a conceptual corridor and protection area from Highway 407 to Mayfield Road between Mississauga Road and Winston Churchill Boulevard. The Official Plan policies recognize the desire to protect for a NSTC and Bram West Parkway through Environmental Assessment processes and interregional transportation studies. This policy and other proposed changes to the transportation network and policies are components of ROPA 16. The Region’s existing Official Plan contains policies that identify the need to phase development in Northwest Brampton contemporaneous with the construction of a North-South Transportation Corridor.

ROPA 16 proposes changes to the transportation network and transportation policies and has been appealed to the OMB by the Northwest Brampton Landowners Group Inc., the Sierra Club of Canada Peel Region Group, Orlando Corporation, Maple Lodge Farms Limited, The May Family and related Corporations,



Brampton Brick Limited and 840966 Ontario Limited and others. A second pre-hearing occurred on October 15, 2009 and a further hearing has yet to be scheduled.

Peel Region’s Capital Roads Program for the years 2007-2031 includes both the NSTC and the related Bram West Parkway and includes the following:

2012 funding is given for future studies and environmental assessments for a new north/south road/ future Bram West Parkway;

2015 funding is provided for reconstruction projects to Bovaird Drive;

2017 funding is provided for future reconstruction for a structure over the Credit River;

2018 funding is given for landscaping, street lighting and intersections including signals to Bovaird Drive;

2019 funding is allocated for construction up to Sandalwood Parkway;

2021 funding is secured for costs associated for a CN Rail structure; and,

2022 funding is allocated for construction up to Sandalwood Parkway and associated intersections including signals, street lighting and landscaping costs.

CITY OF BRAMPTON OFFICIAL PLAN A North-South Corridor Protection Area is designated on Schedule B of the City’s Official Plan. This area includes lands north and south of the Credit River that are being protected for the accommodation of a “higher order transportation corridor” referred to as the NSTC and related Bram West Parkway.

The corridor protection area south of the Credit River incorporates an area between Heritage Road and Winston Churchill Boulevard, which then tapers into a narrow alignment centered between Heritage Road and Winston Churchill Boulevard. The southern corridor protection area is identified to include an interchange at Highway 407 between these arterial roads. The specific configuration, location and classification of this road is to be determined through further studies. The conceptual alignment of the road, according to Schedule B of the Official Plan illustrates a proposed connection of the NSTC into Halton Hills.

The corridor protection area north of the Credit River includes an area between Mississauga Road and Winston Churchill Boulevard. The proposed conceptual alignment illustrated on Schedule B identifies the road between Heritage Road and Mississauga Road. It also envisions a crossing of the Credit River in proximity to Heritage Road.

The City’s Official Plan prescribes this “high order transportation facility” to be constructed to Bovaird Drive by 2021 and to Mayfield West by 2031. The ultimate form and classification of this corridor is subject to further study. These policies are under appeal at the Ontario Municipal Board.

CITY OF BRAMPTON TRANSPORTATION AND TRANSIT MASTER PLAN

The City of Brampton Transportation and Transit Master Plan identifies this corridor as a “super arterial”. According to the Master Plan an “urban arterial” is defined as a road of up to 6 lanes with expected speeds of 62-70 km/hr, which is to have at-grade intersections. A “super arterial” is considered to be a high speed urban arterial of up to 8 lanes with expected speeds of 70-80 km/hr, which is also to have at-grade



intersections. This classification includes controlled access; however the roadway will intersect with other major arterial and collectors in the area. This road classification does not permit local road access. The study recommends specific timelines for the construction of this “multi-modal transportation corridor” in Brampton. The report recommends construction of 6 lanes from 407 to Sandalwood Parkway by 2016 with an extension of the six lanes from Sandalwood Parkway to Mayfield West by 2031. It is recommended and anticipated in the plan that an expansion to eight lanes between 407 and Bovaird Drive will be implemented by 2031.

CITY OF BRAMPTON DEVELOPMENT CHARGES The City of Brampton Development Charges includes the NSTC in their roads development charge. The Growth Related Capital Program for roads includes funding for the study of a Bram West Parkway from Hwy 407 to Heritage Road as well as property acquisition for a NSTC as early at 2010. Funding is allocated for the construction of the Bram West Parkway and NSTC up to 2031, however this capital program has not been adopted by Council and is currently being revised for release in December 2009. Furthermore an August 5, 2009 staff report to City Council recommended the establishment of a new Development Charge By-Law for the NSTC (NSTC or Bram West Parkway). City staff have advised that the purpose of this by-law will be to collect a Development Charge that would be equivalent to a Regional DC.

Each of the above documents and studies provide for the incorporation of a NSTC in Brampton. However each document characterizes this roadway differently in terms of its alignment, configuration, width and construction timeline.



H I G H W A Y 4 2 7 E X T E N S I O N Although the Highway 427 Extension is not proposed to extend through the City of Brampton, this Highway has been incorporated into the planning for roads, infrastructure, and employment lands in the City of Brampton.

MTO 427 TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR EA The Environmental Assessment for the Highway 427 Extension has identified Major Mackenzie Drive as the preferred terminus for Highway 427. This EA has not been finalized, but the anticipated completion and approval of this process is in 2010. Funding for this project has not been assigned and is usually not allocated until the EA has been approved by the MOE. Upon completion of the EA process, MTO will seek funding allocation for this project as part of their capital works budget. A further extension of Highway 427 north of Major Mackenzie Drive will require a separate EA process.

PEEL-HIGHWAY 427 EXTENSION AREA TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN This inter-municipal study proposes an arterial connection from Mayfield Road to Major Mackenzie Drive through northeast Brampton. This proposed connection would facilitate access to the terminus of Highway 427. This study also identifies the need for a further extension to Highway 427 north of Major Mackenzie Drive.

BRAMPTON TRANSPORTATION AND TRANSIT MASTER PLAN The City’s Master Plan identifies the need for transportation connectivity with York Region and extension of Highway 427. Further to the extension of Highway 427, the required road network improvements within the City of Brampton include a combination of road widening and new roads. The Master Plan provides for a new north-south arterial road connection from the intersection of Highway 50 and Major Mackenzie Drive to Mayfield Road between Coleraine Drive and Clarkway Drive by 2016. In addition the plan proposes the realignment of Coleraine Drive to intersect with the new north-south link and an east-west connection from the realigned Coleraine Drive west to Gore Road. The City’s TTMP strongly supports the Peel-Highway 427 Extension Area Transportation Master Plan’s recommendation to advance the extension of Highway 427 beyond Major Mackenzie Drive.



I N F R A S T R U C T U R E The following information outlines the City of Brampton and Region of Peels’ roads and infrastructure planning that is to support the planned growth in the City of Brampton. Given that the entire City of Brampton is considered to be an urban area that is planned to accommodate population and employment growth, infrastructure and transportation must be planned in an orderly, efficient, and timely manner. The planning of infrastructure, described below is anticipated to be planned by the Region and City through detailed planning exercises including Secondary Plans and Block Plans. The timing for infrastructure and road construction will be included as part of the capital roads and infrastructure programs over the next planning horizon.

ROADS The Region of Peel’s Long Range Transportation Plan identifies improvements that are required to Regional roads within Brampton to 2021 and 2031. These improvements will result in the majority of Regional roads in the City of Brampton having between 4 and 6 lanes by 2031.

The City of Brampton’s Capital Projects identify a series of local road improvements to 2018 that include several road widenings in northeast and northwest Brampton. As noted above, the City has released a draft of their updated DC By-law information and staff anticipate presenting a detailed growth related capital program to Council in December 2009.

MUNICIPAL SERVICES The existing built-up areas in the City of Brampton are presently serviced by municipal water and wastewater services. As part of the inclusion of Northwest Brampton into the City’s urban boundary in 2005, Hemson’s report entitled “Northwest Brampton Urban Boundary Study” identified that the expansion of the Urban System into Northwest Brampton would constitute contiguous development due to its location being adjacent to an existing urban community. The Region of Peel will extend existing regional water and sewer infrastructure to service Northwest Brampton. As part of this study, a servicing study conducted by the Region stated that there were potential challenges in providing the servicing capacity to accommodate forecasted short-term growth. However, these short-term constraints were not considered to be significant enough to have a discernable effect on the long-term development of the Region or the viability of Northwest Brampton.



T R A N S I T The existing City of Brampton Transit System includes bus services, GO Transit service and various rail services. According to the City’s TTMP, the City’s bus system comprises a total of 36 fixed routes throughout the City. GO Transit service is provided by a single rail line that connects to Georgetown and Toronto from three stations, including Bramalea, Brampton (Downtown) and Mount Pleasant stations. There are also five GO Transit bus service routes that connect with the City’s GO Transit stations.

The City of Brampton also contains other rail service for passengers and freight, including the VIA Rail, the CN Rail and the CP Orangeville-Brampton Railway. CN Rail operates the Brampton Intermodal Terminal, which is their major terminal serving the GTA, and is located northeast of Airport Road and Highway 407. Based on the City’s rail and transit network, the City has identified Transit Supportive Nodes, BRT Corridors and Primary and Secondary Corridors.

The Growth Plan includes policies that encourage the planning for office uses in areas that are served by transit. Existing and planned office nodes are generally located in transit supportive nodes and along many of the City’s transit and rail corridors.

METROLINX In 2008, Metrolinx adopted a Regional Transportation Plan for the GTHA entitled the Big Move: Transforming Transportation in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. Based on this plan, the following is a summary of identified existing and future major transit stations that have significant transit service and where development and intensification can occur:

Downtown Brampton which is an intermodal facility supporting BRT lines and primary location for businesses, etc.

Hurontario and Steeles Avenue intersection

Bramalea and Steeles

Mount Pleasant GO station

Bramalea City Centre and Trinity Commons

Mississauga Road and Steeles

Hurontario and Ray Lawson Blvd.

Highway 50 and Queen St.

Transitway stations (identified in Growth Plan)

CITY OF BRAMPTON TRANSPORTATION AND TRANSIT MASTER PLAN The City of Brampton’s Transportation and Transit Master Plan includes additional recommendations not included in the Metrolinx Plan. These include the following BRT lines:

Steeles Avenue BRT Corridor



Queen Street BRT Corridor

Bovaird Drive BRT Corridor

Main Street BRT Corridor

Mississauga Road BRT Corridor

North-South BRT Corridor on Airport Road or Bramalea Road

These BRT corridors will form the spine of the City’s transit service but will also support the growth of Central Area and Downtown Brampton.

BRAMPTON EMPLOYMENT LANDS REVIEW BRAMPTON EMPLOYMENT LAND CONCLUSIONS 59


S E C T I O N 9 : B R A M P T O N E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D C O N C L U S I O N S

I N D U S T R I A L M A R K E T C O N C L U S I O N S Brampton’s current supply of vacant employment land is generally well located from a market demand perspective. Neighbouring municipalities such as Vaughan, Mississauga, Caledon, Halton Hills and other GTA West communities have viable employment lands, and will compete on an ongoing basis for the attraction of investment and development. As the City of Mississauga to the south approaches functional build-out of its vacant employment lands, Brampton is poised to attract an increased market share in the future, although it is noteworthy that approximately 800 net hectares remain in Mississauga. In recent years, Brampton has attracted a declining share of the GTA West market total new supply, however, its absolute amount of new supply has remained relatively stable.

Dynamics of the manufacturing and transportation/logistics sectors will influence tenant’s and users’ industrial space requirements. In particular, the trend observed for off-shoring of manufacturing/production activities and the resulting growth in the level of imports of finished goods coming to Canada has seen the Greater Toronto Area evolve into a major warehousing and distribution hub. Consequently, traditional manufacturing-type employment has waned somewhat in the GTA. The prospect of a rising Canada-U.S. exchange rate places further pressure on the viability of some forms of industrial activity – particularly export-oriented manufacturers. Canadian-U.S. dollar parity makes Canadian goods more expensive to purchase in the U.S. market, impacting production activity.

Near-term economic issues will continue to affect the GTA industrial market, until a meaningful recovery takes hold. Job losses traditionally continue beyond the “technical” end of a recession, so relatively high unemployment rates may persist well beyond 2010. It will take some time for industries to rehire workers that have been shed during the last few years, and there is no realistic prospect for renewed requirements for new industrial space in the near term. While some design-build activity will take place, widespread demand for new facilities at levels similar to those observed prior to the recent economic downturn is possibly three to five years away, given the response witnessed by the GTA real estate market to the 1990’s recession. Rising vacancy rates and the availability of large blocks of modern, high ceiling space in new facilities must be absorbed prior to a new cycle of development taking hold.



E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D E M P L O Y M E N T S P A C E P R O J E C T I O N S – H E M S O N F O R E C A S T Cushman & Wakefield has taken the base Hemson forecast assumptions and tested them against actual and projected market performance to provide an estimate of the required additional employment lands in the City of Brampton until 2031. Our model is presented in the exhibit that follows. The Lines are indicated in the first column of the exhibit to provide the reader with an understanding of the meaning of the inputs to the model and how they were derived. The figures shown include only employment land employment-related supply (and exclude major office and population-related needs).

OUTLINE OF THE INDUSTRIAL SPACE PROJECTIONS REVIEW MODEL Currently Vacant Employment Land

Line 1: There are 1,180 net effective hectares of vacant employment land citywide. This figure was provided in Hemson’s November 2008 report, and for the purposes of our analysis is accepted as a year-end 2008 value. All of our projections are based on a 2009-2031 time horizon, since adjustments to 2006-2008 data have already been incorporated.

Line 2: Based upon Hemson’s forecast of the annual average employment land required per year from 2009 to 2013 (Line 7), the City presently has 13.5 years of vacant employment land remaining (Line 1 divided by Line 7).

Proposed Employment Land

Line 3: 38.0 is the reported average employment land employment density, measured by the number of persons per hectare. Cushman & Wakefield accepts this as a benchmark value.

Line 4: Hemson has forecast that the City of Brampton will have an additional 76,300 Employment Land employees by 2031, taking into account adjustments already made to data from 2006-2008.

Line 5: 2,010 hectares is the total net additional “Pure” Employment Land requirement Hemson has forecast for the City of Brampton, excluding Major Office and Population-Related needs. This is calculated by dividing the new employees figure by the annual average employment land required (Line 4 divided by Line 3).

Line 6: 830 hectares is the resultant new employment land requirement, calculated by subtracting the existing vacant employment land from the total employment land requirement (Line 5 minus Line 1).

Line 7: Hemson’s forecast of the annual average employment land required per year from 2009 to 2031.

Line 8: The figure of 23 years is the total number of years of employment land supply, once the additional 830 hectares is added to the existing inventory of 1,180 hectares. This corresponds with the time horizon to 2031.



Recent Brampton Industrial New Supply

Line 9: 1.6 million sf is the average annual new industrial supply added across the City of Brampton from 2001-2008, according to Cushman & Wakefield’s quarterly industrial market surveys.

Line 10: 1.7 million sf is the average annual new supply added across the City of Brampton from 1992-2008, based on industrial building permits data from the City of Brampton.

New Industrial Supply Forecast (based on Hemson Estimates)

Cushman & Wakefield has generated new industrial square footage figures based upon the average annual employment land absorption forecasted by Hemson (i.e. 87.4 hectares per year). This rate of land absorption has been calculated against four building coverage benchmarks: 34%, 36%, 38% and 40%. The resultant square footage calculations are then compared to Brampton’s recent new construction activity to provide an indication of the magnitude of Hemson’s forecast versus actual historic activity.

Line 11: At a site coverage factor of 34%, Hemson’s forecast suggests that the City will see an additional 3.2 million sf of new industrial building square footage annually, which is 1.9 times the rate seen during the recent industrial market cycle from 1992-2008 (Line 10).

Line 12: At a site coverage factor of 36%, Hemson’s forecast suggests that the City will see an additional 3.38 million sf of new industrial building square footage annually, which is 2.0 times the rate seen during the recent industrial market cycle from 1992-2008.





Industrial Space Projections Review - Hemson ForecastLine Currently Vacant Employment Land

1 1,180 Hectares

2 13.5 Supply of employment land (years)

Proposed Employment Land

3 38.0 Employment Land Employment Density (persons/ha)

4 76,300 Employees (Hemson forecast)

5 2,010 Total employment land required (ha)

6 830 New employment land required (Hemson forecast)

7 87.4 Annual average employment land required/year - 2009-2031 (sf)

8 23.0 Total supply of employment land (years)

Recent Brampton New Industrial Supply

9 1,600,000 Industrial new supply (2001-2008 - Cushman & Wakefield)

10 1,700,000 Industrial new supply (1992-2008 - City of Brampton Building Permits)

New Industrial Supply Forecast (based on Hemson Estimates)

@ 34% coverage Times historic trend

11 3,200,000 Square footage of industrial space 1.9










E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D E M P L O Y M E N T S P A C E P R O J E C T I O N S – C U S H M A N & W A K E F I E L D S E N S I T I V I T I E S Based on our investigation, there is no precedent for the volume of industrial new supply activity suggested by the Hemson forecasts. Having determined that the Hemson new industrial square footage projections exceed past market performance – by a rate of approximately two times – Cushman & Wakefield has prepared an alternative forecast model. Our model uses a “bottom up” approach by beginning with industrial demand in square footage terms, then applying benchmark site coverage ratios to determine land requirements. As with the previous model, the Lines are indicated in the first column of the exhibit to provide the reader with an understanding of the meaning of the inputs to the model and how they were derived. The sensitivity levels are denoted as “Low”, “Low-Medium”, “Medium-High”, and “High”. The Low-Medium and Medium-High sensitivities are deemed to be the appropriate range for analytic purposes. These figures are indicated in the boxes found in the following exhibit, although lower and higher sensitivities are also presented for comparative analysis.

OUTLINE OF THE INDUSTRIAL SPACE PROJECTIONS MODEL Line 1: The “times historic trend” is an indication of the expansion factor that has been applied to the

long run annual average new industrial supply added across the City of Brampton. The 1.7 million sf per year figure is drawn from Brampton’s performance from 1992-2008, which we believe reflects a full industrial real estate building cycle. We accept that market dynamics will see the City increase its share of industrial activity over time, particularly with the impending build-out of Mississauga’s employment lands and the completion of various transportation infrastructure improvements in the Brampton such as North-South Transportation Corridor. However, these growth prospects are tempered by the onset of competitive employment lands in neighbouring municipalities, as well as uncertainty regarding the scope of future manufacturing sector growth. In our view, a growth factor of 20% to 40% above the historic rate of new supply is supportable.

Line 2: The figure of 1.7 million sf per year is used as a baseline (the annual average from 1992 to 2008), and the respective sensitivities are inflated appropriately (Line 2 multiplied by Line 1).

Line 3: These figures represent the additional new supply per year, in square footage terms, generated by the expansion factor indicated on Line 1 (Line 2 sensitivity minus the base sensitivity of 1,700,000).

Line 4: The employment land demand per year (in hectares) is indicated. This figure is calculated as a product of the built space against the four building coverage sensitivities (converting Line 2 into a land requirement at various coverage ratios). The results suggest that roughly 49.9 to 61.4 hectares per year are required to serve industrial requirements (exclusive of Major Office and Population-Related requirements).

Line 5: The present supply of vacant employment land is 1,180 net effective hectares, according to Hemson. This figure is divided by the number of hectares required per year calculated on Line 4 under various building coverage ratios. This calculation expresses the number of years of employment land supply that are remaining (the presently vacant employment land figure of 1,180 hectares divided by Line 4). The results indicate that the existing supply of vacant industrial land will be exhausted between years 19 and 24 (beginning in 2009), or between 2027 and 2032.



Line 6: Based on the calculations above, Line 6 expresses the amount of additional employment land employment land (industrial-type land) that is required to meet market forecast demand by 2031 at each of the four building coverage sensitivities. A range between 0.0 hectares and 233.3 hectares of additional employment land-type employment land is required by 2031, notwithstanding the 1,180 net vacant hectares already designated. This is calculated based on the annual rates of absorption indicated on Line 4 (calculated by multiplying Line 4 by 23 years remaining within the forecast period, minus the 1,180 hectares of presently vacant employment land).

Line 7: This figure indicated the total employment land requirement generated under our suggested sensitivities for each of the building coverage ratios (calculated by multiplying Line 4 by 23 years remaining within the forecast horizon). The results indicate a range of 1,148 to 1,413 total net hectares of employment land employment land (industrial-type lands) is required by 2031.

Line 8: Using a figure of 38 persons per hectare as an employment land employment density, the figures expressed above suggest that between 43,610 and 53,700 new employment land employment-type workers is a realistic target. While we accept the figure of 38 persons per hectare, it may also be adjusted to test for sensitivities.

Our investigations suggest that while there is evidence of a decline in employment density levels according to research undertaken by other consultants (Hemson and MKI), and a continuation of the trend is expected by knowledgeable sources for the future, uncertainties as to the precise nature and composition of Brampton businesses going forward warrant that a range of density assumptions be employed. Therefore, when 36 and 40 persons per hectare are tested to expand the range, the total number of employment land employment-type workers widens from a low of 41,310 to a high of 56,530, with all other modeling variables remaining unchanged.



Industrial Space Projections - Cushman & Wakefield SensitivitiesLine Low Low-Med Med-High High

1 Times historic trend - 1.2 1.4 1.6

2 New supply/year (sf) 1,700,000 2,040,000 2,380,000 2,720,000

3 Additional supply (sf) - 340,000 680,000 1,020,000

4 Employment land ha/year

@ 34% coverage 46.5 55.8 65.1 74.4

@ 36% coverage 43.9 52.7 61.4 70.2

@ 38% coverage 41.6 49.9 58.2 66.5

@ 40% coverage 39.5 47.4 55.3 63.2

5 How many years until present vacant employment land supply is exhausted?

@ 34% coverage 25.4 21.2 18.1 15.9

@ 36% coverage 26.9 22.4 19.2 16.8

@ 38% coverage 28.4 23.6 20.3 17.7

@ 40% coverage 29.9 24.9 21.3 18.7

6 Additional hectares of employment land required?

@ 34% coverage 0.0 102.6 316.4 530.1

@ 36% coverage 0.0 31.4 233.2 435.1

@ 38% coverage 0.0 0.0 158.9 350.1

@ 40% coverage 0.0 0.0 91.9 273.6

7 Total (ha)

@ 34% coverage 1,068.8 1,282.6 1,496.4 1,710.1

@ 36% coverage 1,009.5 1,211.4 1,413.2 1,615.1

@ 38% coverage 956.3 1,147.6 1,338.9 1,530.1

@ 40% coverage 908.5 1,090.2 1,271.9 1,453.6

8 Total employees (@ 38/ha)

@ 34% coverage 40,620 48,740 56,860 64,990

@ 36% coverage 38,360 46,030 53,700 61,380

@ 38% coverage 36,340 43,610 50,880 58,140

@ 40% coverage 34,520 41,430 48,330 55,240




O F F I C E S P A C E P R O J E C T I O N S The City of Brampton competes with established office nodes across GTA West, in addition to other GTA Suburbs and in an indirect fashion, with the Financial Core, Downtown Fringe and Midtown office concentrations. With its superior transportation access and amenities, the Toronto Downtown Core market will remain an important component of the GTA’s overall office environment. However, businesses must evaluate the high costs of downtown office space versus more affordable suburban locational alternatives. Firms that do not require a downtown presence will contemplate transportation and transit accessibility, visibility, labour force, occupancy costs and other considerations in contemplating a move to the GTA suburbs.

Due to its location near the intersection of Highways 401 and 407, Bram West (Area 40) is well positioned to attract a growing share of office space – likely a high proportion of campus-style corporate (owner-user) office space, as opposed to multi-tenant buildings. As well, the neighbouring Meadowvale office node is approaching build-out of prime office sites, with market participants indicating that there is a limited number of development sites remaining. Looking forward, other potential office sites in Brampton include the area around the intersection of Highways 407 and 410, as well as potential sites in the southeastern portion of the City (possibly including the Bram East Precinct).

Brampton’s Central Area does not offer suitable sites for campus-style development, and there are issues related to transportation access and visibility. Successful suburban office nodes tend to be oriented to 400-series highway access. Brampton’s Central Area is viewed by the office leasing marketplace as being too isolated to make commuting easy for a GTA-wide labour pool. For this reason, the most viable office development locations would be focused along Highway 407 at/near major interchanges. Therefore, it is our recommendation that employment land calculations should make an allowance for Major Office space.

There is no precedent for the volume of office demand (growth) that Hemson has forecast. Prior to the three recently completed projects (Loblaw, Medtronic and Springdale Professional Building), Brampton had seen very little new office supply since the early 1990s. The successful neighbouring suburban office node of Meadowvale has averaged less than 200,000 sf per year since 1999, and this figure includes the 820,000 sf Royal Bank buildings.

In the following exhibit, we will illustrate the real estate implications that Hemson’s Major Office employment forecast of 33,100 additional jobs by 2031 generates. Importantly, unlike the industrial data sets, there is not a comparable volume of office data to draw upon to gauge growth prospects – Brampton’s new office supply has historically been sporadic. Given the magnitude of Brampton’s population base and business sector, we accept that it will see increasing office activity in the future. For the purposes of our analysis, we have modeled Hemson’s office employment projections (aggressive as they may appear). Like the previous models presented, the Lines are indicated in the first column of the exhibit to provide the reader with an understanding of the meaning of the inputs to the model and how they were calculated.

Benchmark office densities have been used as sensitivities. These figures represent typical new suburban office densities. While figures in downtown office buildings may be as low as 200 sf per person, suburban office environments generally allocate more space per employee, due to lower occupancy costs. The figures of 250 and 275 sf per employee are indicated as the “Low-Medium” and Medium-High” sensitivity levels chosen for modeling purposes. For comparative purposes, the new Loblaw head office has a density of 270 sf per employee, while the Rogers building occupancy figure translates to 210 sf per employee (source: 2008 Business Directory).



OUTLINE OF THE OFFICE SPACE PROJECTIONS MODEL Line 1: For the purposes of our analysis, 250 to 275 sf per employee has been utilized as the

suggested range, although 225 and 300 sf per employee figures are also indicated.

Line 2: The figure of 33,100 new Major Office employees is indicated by Hemson’s forecasting for the period from 2006-2031.

Line 3: Office space required is simply the average office space allocation per employee multiplied by the number of employees (Line 1 multiplied by Line 2). This figure ranges between roughly 8.3 and 9.1 million sf within the suggested range for modeling purposes.

Line 4: The annual average office space required/year from 2006-2031 is calculated by dividing the total office space required over the 25 year forecast horizon (Line 3 divided by 25 years).

Line 5: The 2006 inventory is cited from Cushman & Wakefield’s quarterly office market survey.

Line 6: The Cushman & Wakefield inventory has been adjusted to a 2009 level to include three recently completed office buildings that are not part of the market survey, for reasons discussed earlier in this report. These three buildings are the Loblaw building (460,000 sf), the Medtronic building (85,000 sf) and the Springdale Professional Building (120,000 sf).

Line 7: Together, these three buildings add an adjusted 665,000 sf to the overall total.

Line 8: The average annual office space completed in the years 2007, 2008 and 2009 totals 665,000 sf, which amounts to 221,667 sf per year, on average (Line 7 divided by 3 years).

Line 9: The total office space requirement derived by Hemson’s employment forecast assumptions is divided by the 2009 adjusted office inventory, and expressed as a ratio (Line 3 divided by Line 6). Hemson’s forecast suggests that the 2006 office inventory would need to expand by a factor of roughly 3.0 to 3.3 times to accommodate all of the office employment that is projected through 2031.

Line 10: To give the reader an appreciation of the magnitude of new development being suggested by Hemson’s forecast, we have chosen the Loblaw head office as an example. This building measures 460,000 sf.

Line 11: This figure is intended to visually illustrate in the mind of the reader the number of office buildings equivalent to the Loblaw head office that would be required to be added across the Brampton market to satisfy the office employment forecast by Hemson from 2006-2031 (Line 3 divided by Line 10). This equates to an additional 18 to 20 new major office buildings of equivalent size to the Loblaw headquarters (or slightly less than one per year for each of the next 25 years – an unprecedented level of new office supply).

Line 12: Given Brampton’s locational characteristics, it is likely that a majority of the new office space will be located outside of the Central Area on what is classified as employment lands. Accordingly, we have calculated the number of hectares of land required to accommodate this new office supply based on 65%, 75% and 85% share being allocated to employment lands, at a floor space index (FSI) of 0.7, which is considered appropriate for suburban office development. This translates to a need for between 71.4 and 102.7 additional hectares of employment land to accommodate Major Office development.



Office Space ProjectionsLine Low Low-Med Med-High High

1 Office density (persons/sf) 225 250 275 300

2 Employees (Hemson forecast) 33,100 33,100 33,100 33,100

3 Office space required (sf) 7,447,500 8,275,000 9,102,500 9,930,000

4 Average office space required/year - 2006-2031 (sf) 297,900 331,000 364,100 397,200

5 Office inventory - 2006 (sf) 2,117,579 2,117,579 2,117,579 2,117,579

6 Adjusted office inventory - 2009 (sf) 2,782,579 2,782,579 2,782,579 2,782,579

7 Office space completed 2007-2009 665,000 665,000 665,000 665,000

8 Annual average office space completed/year (sf) 221,667 221,667 221,667 221,667

9 Increase to 2009 inventory (times) 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6

10 Loblaws head office (sf) 460,000 460,000 460,000 460,000

11 Number of new "Loblaw" head offices 16.2 18.0 19.8 21.6

12 Share of Major Office Employment on Employment Lands @ FSI = 0.7

@ 65% 64.3 71.4 78.6 85.7

@ 75% 74.2 82.4 90.6 98.9

@ 85% 84.1 93.4 102.7 112.1


Loblaw head office has 1,700 employees and totals 460,000 sf (270 sf/employee*). Rogers office has 4,500 employees and totals 950,000 sf (210 sf/employee*). * Source: 2008 Business Directory



E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D C O N C L U S I O N S In addition to the Employment Land Employment-type land and Major Office land requirements discussed above, an allocation for Population-Related Employment Land must be accounted for. To derive this, we have estimated this land allowance as a percentage of Employment Land plus Population-Related Employment Land, at a factor of 5% and 7%. These benchmark figures are comparable to figures used by Hemson and the Region of Peel Employment Land Study. This translates to a need to allocate for an additional 60 to 106 hectares of Employment Land by 2031. Note that the allocation of land for Population-Related Employment referenced above is possibly conservative in light of the Peel Region Employment Land Study findings. That report assumed that 5% of the population-serving employment in Brampton would locate on Employment Lands. By comparison, a figure of 20% of population-serving employment is assumed for Caledon while 40% is utilized for Mississauga.

The preceding analysis suggests that, in total, an additional Employment Land provision of 99 to 442 hectares is required to accommodate new industrial, major office and population-related employment growth on Employment Lands across Brampton by 2031. This needs assessment does not include any allowance for additional lands that may be desired for Economic Development purposes to provide site-selection options to prospective users. The following exhibit summarizes these findings.

OUTLINE OF THE TOTAL EMPLOYMENT LAND REQUIRED Line 1: Estimated Employment Land-type Employment Land required, summarized from modeling

presented above.

Line 2: Estimated Major Office lands required within Employment Lands, summarized from modeling presented above.

Line 3: Estimated Population-Related Employment Land required, summarized from explanation discussed above.

Line 4: Total Employment Land requirement for the City of Brampton (sum of Lines 1, 2 and 3).

Line 5: The total Employment Land requirement through 2031, less the total existing vacant, designated Employment Lands as defined by the Hemson report.

Line 6: The new Employment Land required for designation to facilitate development forecast until 2031 (as stated in terms of net land area as defined by Hemson, excluding roads, stormwater management ponds and other sources).

Total Employment Land RequirementLine Low High

1 Employment Land Employment 1,147.6 1,413.2

2 Major Office 71.4 102.7

3 Population-Related* 60.4 106.4

4 Total Employment Land Requirement 1,279.4 1,622.3

5 Less Existing Net Vacant Employment Land 1,180.0 1,180.0

6 Total New Employment Land Required 99.4 442.3

* Calculated at 5% to 7% of Employment Land Employment plus Population-Related Employment



E M P L O Y M E N T C O N C L U S I O N S Based upon the needs assessment presented above, employment density benchmarks may be utilized to estimate the additional amount of employment indicated by the real estate space demand forecast models. The following figures are utilized for analytic purposes, and conform to generally accepted industry figures utilized by other land economists:

Employment Land Employment is calculated at 36 to 40 persons per hectare.

Major Office employment is calculated at approximately 275 to 300 persons per hectare.

Population-Related employment is calculated at 75 persons per hectare.

Total New EmploymentLow High Hemson

Employment Land Employment 41,310 56,530 76,300

Major Office 21,520 28,140 -

Population-Related 4,530 7,980 -

Total New Employment 67,360 92,650 -

- Employment Land Employment calculated at 36 to 40 persons/ha

- Major Office employment calculated at approx. 275 to 300 persons/ha

- Population-Related employment calculated at 75 persons/ha



I M P L I C A T I O N S F O R P E E L R E G I O N ’ S P L A C E S T O G R O W R E Q U I R E M E N T S

Schedule 3 of the Provincial Growth Plan indicates that the Region of Peel will grow to a population of 1,640,000 residents and 870,000 jobs by 2031. Peel Region is required to assign employment and population growth to its member municipalities, including Brampton, Mississauga and Caledon. Employment and Employment Land forecasts have recently been completed by the Region through a land budgeting exercise undertaken in consultation with its member municipalities. The forecast results are outlined in the following paragraphs.

Based on work completed in support of ROPA 24, Peel Region identified that Brampton had 2,790 net hectares of existing developed employment land in 2006 and 1,490 net hectares of vacant employment land. The allocation of employment growth by the Region to Brampton (all employment types including Major Office, Population Serving and Employment Land) amounted to 159,000 jobs during the period 2006 to 2031. Furthermore, it was determined that 75,000 additional jobs will be situated within the City’s built boundary and the other 84,000 jobs will be accommodated in greenfield areas. (Note: the Region of Peel’s employment forecast up to 2031 results in their being some 5,000 more jobs than what is prescribed in Schedule 3 of the Growth Plan.)

Utilizing the employment projection information outlined above, forecast employment land requirements up to 2031 have been calculated by Peel Region. Brampton’s net effective vacant employment land supply was estimated at 1,341 net hectares in 2006 (this supply estimate is calculated by adjusting the 1,490 hectares of total (net) vacant land to reflect a 10% structural vacancy assumption) and its projected additional employment land demand is 2,249 net hectares by 2031. Given these estimates, a shortfall of 908 net hectares of employment land has been determined by the Region for Brampton by 2031. This value excludes lands required for roads and other infrastructure. In gross hectare terms, the shortfall of vacant employment land amounts to 1,135 (gross) hectares.

The differences in employment forecasts between the Provincial Growth Plan, the Region of Peel and the City of Brampton will have implications that will ultimately need to be resolved. Consequently, the total number of jobs forecast by the Region of Peel may require further adjustment in order to rationalize both the projected shortfall of employment lands in Brampton, while at the same time attaining a closer alignment with the Provincial Growth Plan job forecasts.

BRAMPTON EMPLOYMENT LANDS REVIEW ASSESSMENT OF EMPLOYMENT LAND REQUIREMENTS 72


S E C T I O N 1 0 : A S S E S S M E N T O F E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D R E Q U I R E M E N T S F O R S E L E C T E D P R E C I N C T S

As part of this analysis, our opinion has been requested for the suitability of four precincts or major areas as candidates for Employment Land activity in the future from a market demand perspective. Those lands included:

1. A corridor of land situated immediately adjacent to the existing Hwy 427 Employment Land Precinct (Area 47) in Northeast Brampton, i.e., lying from Castlemore Road in the south to the Caledon Town boundary on Mayfield Road in the north and extending westward from the existing precinct boundary to Clarkway Drive.

2. Northwest Brampton Lands situated north of the Credit River to the boundary with Caledon on Mayfield Road and from Mississauga Road in the east to Winston Churchill Boulevard in the west on the Halton Hills town boundary (Areas 52 and 53).

3. Airport Road North Special Study Area (Area 49) situated on the southeast and southwest quadrants of the Airport Road / Mayfield Road intersection (adjacent to the Caledon town boundary).

4. Bram East Secondary Plan Area lands presently designated as Employment Lands and situated in the vicinity of the intersection of Queen Street and Hwy 50 on the City of Vaughan boundary (Area 41).

L O C A T I O N F A C T O R S The suitability of areas for employment land uses will typically depend on a variety of factors. In this instance the evaluation of many of these factors is made more challenging by the long term nature of the forecast period under consideration and the fact that much of the land at issue is situated outside the existing built area of the City in greenfield districts. Having said this, the following is an outline of the most pertinent considerations in our view that will impact the suitability of the subject lands for Employment Land uses.

Local Transportation Infrastructure: easy access to a strong arterial road network with the necessary capacity to accommodate labour accessibility and truck traffic in an efficient fashion.

Access to the Regional Highway Network: efficient, direct and relatively unencumbered access to 400-series highways, e.g., avoidance of congested residential areas by truck traffic.

Scale of Employment Land Development: sufficient land and development capacity to enable the employment area to establish a sense of presence or destination in the business community.

Visibility: line of sight from major thoroughfares to enable tenants that place a value on their visibility in the community to be recognized.

Availability of Vacant Parcels: availability of a variety of development parcels in terms of size and configuration to accommodate users’ needs.

Compatibility of Adjacent Uses: buffering of employment land activities from other potentially incompatible activities such as residential so as to minimize constraints on business tenant operations.

Date: 2009 09 08: MKTDEMAND&DEVT_EMPLOYLANDS.gws

0 1 2 3 4 5

Kilometres

PLANNING, DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT

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EMPLOYMENT LANDS BY EMPLOYMENT AREA

BUSINESS PARK TYPE

AIRPORT INTERMODAL

BRAMEAST

BRAMWEST


CENTRAL AREA

DOWNTOWN NORTH

HURONTARIO SOUTH

HWY 410

HWY 410 NORTH

HWY 427

MCLAUGHLIN NORTH

NORTH WEST SANDALWOOD

VALES NORTH

NONE

CITY OF TORONTO

CITY OFVAUGHAN

TOWN OF CALEDON

TOWNOF

HALTONHILLS

CITY OF MISSISSAUGA

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Schedule GLast Amended Date

Printed DateSECONDARY PLAN

AREAS

NOTES:LEGEND

HeartLake

Professor's Lake

Loafer'sLake

October 7, 2008

October 7, 2008

CITY OF TORONTO

CITY OFVAUGHAN

TOWN OF CALEDON

TOWNOF

HALTONHILLS

CITY OF MISSISSAUGA1:70 000

0 1 2 3 4 5

Kilometres

52HUTTONVILLE NORTH

53MOUNT PLEASANT WEST

51MOUNT PLEASANT

44FLETCHER'S MEADOW

1 SNELGROVE

48SANDRINGHAM - WELLINGTON NORTH

44FLETCHER'S MEADOW

2 NORTHWEST SANDALWOOD

3HEART LAKE WEST

4HEART LAKE EAST

28SANDRINGHAM - WELLINGTON

49 VALES OFCASTLEMORE NORTH

50VALES OF HUMBER

47HIGHWAY 427 INDUSTRIAL 42

VALES OFCASTLEMORE

26TORONTO GORE RURAL ESTATE

41BRAM EAST

39GOREWAY DRIVECORRIDOR

40 (a)

40BRAM WEST

40 (b)

45CREDIT VALLEY

5NORTHWOOD PARK

20AVONDALE

25STEELES INDUSTRIAL

38BRAMALEA ROADSOUTH GATEWAY

24FLETCHER'S CREEK SOUTH

17BRAMPTON EAST

15FLETCHER'S WESTSECONDARY PLAN

16BRAMPTON SOUTH

PARKWAY BELT

5NORTHWOOD PARK

7DOWNTOWN BRAMPTON

8BRAMPTON NORTH

9MADOC 10

WESTGATE

11CENTRAL PARK

12NORTHGATE

13BRAMALEA NORTHINDUSTRIAL

14 GOREINDUSTRIAL NORTH

23GORE INDUSTRIAL SOUTH

22 BRAMALEA SOUTHINDUSTRIAL

21SOUTHGATE

36QUEEN STREET CORRIDOR

20AVONDALE

5NORTHWOOD PARK

7DOWNTOWN BRAMPTON

8BRAMPTON NORTH

9MADOC 10

WESTGATE

11CENTRAL PARK

12NORTHGATE






20AVONDALE

5NORTHWOOD PARK

7DOWNTOWN BRAMPTON

8BRAMPTON NORTH

9MADOC 10

WESTGATE

11CENTRAL PARK

12NORTHGATE






20AVONDALE

5NORTHWOOD PARK

7DOWNTOWN BRAMPTON

8BRAMPTON NORTH

9MADOC 10

WESTGATE

11CENTRAL PARK

12NORTHGATE






20AVONDALE

5NORTHWOOD PARK

7DOWNTOWN BRAMPTON

8BRAMPTON NORTH

9MADOC 10

WESTGATE

11CENTRAL PARK

12NORTHGATE






20AVONDALE

5NORTHWOOD PARK

7DOWNTOWN BRAMPTON

8BRAMPTON NORTH

9MADOC 10

WESTGATE

11CENTRAL PARK

12NORTHGATE






20AVONDALE

5NORTHWOOD PARK

8BRAMPTON NORTH

9MADOC 10

WESTGATE

11CENTRAL PARK

12NORTHGATE






20AVONDALE

43 FLETCHER'S CREEK VILLAGE 6

BRAMPTON WEST

37AIRPORT RD / HY#7BUSINESS CENTRE

32PARKWAY BELT INDUSTRIAL AREA

29HUTTONVILLE 54

KENNEDY ROAD SOUTH



18 BRAMPTON EAST INDUSTRIAL

19 BRAMALEA WEST INDUSTRIAL

NEWER SECONDARY PLAN AREAS ORPORTIONS THEREOF SUBJECT TO THE NEWHOUSING MIX AND DENSITY CATEGORIES OFTHE OFFICIAL PLAN

APPEALED TO THE OMB



Access to Other Transportation Infrastructure: relatively easy access to airport, rail (e.g., intermodal service), etc.

Public Transit Service for Labour: we assume that as the employment areas develop, public transit will be made available.

Local Amenities and Services: we assume that local amenities and services typically required in support of Employment Lands (e.g., retail, personal services, business services, restaurant & fast food) will be provided in a timely fashion consistent with the scale of activity and employment in the respective areas.

Municipal Services: given that the subject lands are considered to be within an urban area that is planned to accommodate population and employment growth, we assume that municipal services will be available in a timely fashion as development proceeds.

Labour Supply: we assume that given Brampton’s situation within the GTA, the subject areas will each have access to the necessary labour pool.

Land Costs: we assume that the cost of land for the subject areas will be consistent with competitive market norms.

Construction Costs: we assume that the cost of construction in the subject areas will be consistent with competitive market norms.

The following subsections outline our findings pertaining to the suitability of the defined areas for Employment Land uses.



L A N D S F R O N T I N G O N T H E E A S T S I D E O F C L A R K W A Y D R I V E I N A R E A 4 7

OBSERVATIONS Based on the Hemson reports (see Addendum A), the additional land potentially available between

Clarkway and the existing Employment Land boundary (lying north of Old Castlemore Road) comprises approximately 110 ha.

The EA process for the extension of Hwy 427 from the vicinity of Hwy 7 to Major Mackenzie Drive in Vaughan is anticipated to be complete in 2010. Consequently, construction of the highway could commence (subject to provincial funding) in the foreseeable future. We have therefore assumed that 400-series highway access will be available in the vicinity of the Hwy 427 Precinct (Area 47), and therefore the subject lands in the next decade.

The Brampton Transportation and Transit Master Plan (TTMP) along with the Peel – Hwy 427 Extension Area Transportation Master Plan provides for a new north-south arterial road connection from Mayfield Road through the Brampton employment lands to Hwy 50, thereby facilitating access to the terminus of the 427 extension.

The TTMP proposes a re-alignment of Coleraine Drive to intersect with the north-south link as well as an east-west link to The Gore Road.

We also understand that Hwy 50 will be upgraded for additional capacity as required in the future.

Adjacent lands in Vaughan along the boundary with Brampton (Hwy 50) are currently undergoing development for employment land uses (Vaughan’s Enterprise Zone in the vicinity of Hwy 7). In addition, CP’s intermodal rail facility is situated along Hwy 50 at Rutherford Road in Vaughan. Remaining lands in Vaughan to the north of the CP facility and along the boundary with Brampton are either designated for employment uses or proposed as such by York Region over the longer term. Consequently, the Hwy 427 Precinct (Area 47), in conjunction with the Vaughan Enterprise Zone is destined to be a major Employment Land Precinct.

Adjacent Employment Lands in the Bolton area at Mayfield and Hwy 50 further reinforce the industrial and business park nature of Area 47. It is also noteworthy that the Town Council is presently considering options at this time for a further expansion of the Bolton Employment Land inventory to accommodate growth anticipated up to 2031.

Clarkway Drive will provide arterial road service and therefore an opportunity for employment land with good arterial frontage. Furthermore, it can provide a hard buffer between employment land activities in the Hwy 427 Precinct (Area 47) and lands to the west, as opposed to there being a direct interface between employment land and non-employment land uses as would currently be the case.

CONCLUSION Given the above observations, we are of the opinion that the subject lands are suited to use as Employment Lands from a market perspective, particularly due to: the quality of planned local roadways and access to regional highways; proximity to the CP intermodal facility and the larger industrial zone developing in the vicinity; and the arterial frontage and buffering afforded by Clarkway Drive. The strategic merits of the lands



outlined herein lead us to conclude that a variety of industrial uses including large space users and transportation-related enterprises will be attracted to area.

N O R T H W E S T B R A M P T O N L A N D S ( A R E A S 5 2 & 5 3 )

OBSERVATIONS Peel Region’s Capital Roads Program for the 2007 – 2031 period includes the North-South

Transportation Corridor and the Bram West Parkway, including a future structure over the Credit River.

The City’s Official Pan calls for a “high-order transportation facility” to be constructed to Bovaird Drive by 2021 and to Mayfield Road by 2031. Furthermore, the TTMP identifies the Corridor as a “super arterial” defined as a high speed urban arterial route of up to 8 lanes with expected speeds of 70 to 80 km/hr and controlled access, i.e., limited to other arterials and collector routes. The TTMP report also calls for 6 lanes from Hwy 407 to Sandalwood Parkway by 2016 and to Mayfield by 2031. Finally, eight lanes is anticipated between Hwy 407 and Bovaird by 2031.

Given the above, we have concluded it is reasonable to assume that at a minimum, a major arterial roadway with at least 6 lanes of traffic, controlled access and a relatively high speed limit will be available to serve potential Employment Lands in Northwest Brampton (Areas 52 & 53) over the course of the study period. Furthermore, the southerly portion of Northwest Brampton will be served by the arterial route before the end of the next decade.

Given its very preliminary status at this time, we have not made any specific assumptions for a GTA West Corridor including a potential “Hwy 413” traversing Peel Region through Caledon, north of Mayfield Road, before 2031.

The lower portion of Northwest Brampton situated below the CN Rail line is generally within 8 to 9 kilometres of Hwy 407 with the area south of Bovaird within 6.5 to 7.5 kilometres. Consequently, the majority of this area is within a reasonable distance of Highways 407 and 401, assuming that a strong and direct major arterial connection with controlled access and suitable capacity for truck traffic is available. As noted in Section 4, not all industrial activity must be located in the immediate vicinity of a 400-series highway. In addition, we believe that with a strong arterial connection, some transportation-related facilities could also potentially be located in the Northwest.

Being located in the western portion of Brampton, the subject has good access to not only Hwy 407, but also Hwy 401. Furthermore, 407 also provides good linkages to Hwy 403 and the QEW to the south. It therefore offers good overall regional accessibility.

Employment Land development over the shorter term future in the Bram West Precinct located immediately south of the Credit River is expected to be strong as the economy recovers, including corporate office activity. This precinct comprises over 400 ha of vacant land, but as it matures in the later stages of the forecast period, lands in the Northwest are expected to become more attractive, in part due to their relative proximity to the diversity of employment activity and space in Bram West.

Brampton is strategically located in the GTA West marketplace, the most dynamic industrial district in the region. As such, employment lands benefit from their proximity to transportation infrastructure such as Pearson International Airport and the intermodal rail facilities. Consequently, we anticipate



that this fact will also generate interest in Northwest Brampton from prospective users, particularly those not demanding sites immediately adjacent to Hwy 401 and 407.

CONCLUSION Based on the above observations, we are of the opinion that the subject lands situated south of the CN Rail corridor and with proximity to the future North-South Transportation Corridor will be suited to use as Employment Lands from a market perspective. In particular, lands with the greatest ease of access to the Hwy 407 and 401 corridors (the southerly portion of Area 52) will be best suited due to: the quality of planned local roadways and access to regional highways; proximity to the industrial zone developing in Bram West; the arterial frontage made available by the NSTC and other arterial routes in the vicinity including Bovaird Drive.

Section 9 of this report indicates that the total additional Employment Land Requirement in Brampton identified through this analysis ranges between 99 ha and 442 ha by the year 2031. We previously indicated that the Clarkway Drive lands in Area 47 comprising approximately 110 ha will be suited to employment land use. The same is true for Northwest Brampton Lands in Area 52. Depending on decisions taken by the City for additional lands in the Northeast, we therefore find that as much as 330 to 440 net ha (assuming the “medium-high” scenario referenced in Section 9) could be warranted by the marketplace and suitable for Northwest Brampton over the study period (extending to 2031). In reaching this conclusion we find that employment lands in this order of magnitude will be appropriate because they will be sufficient to provide the necessary scale, diversity, presence and sense of a business destination to enable the Northwest Precinct to become a successful Employment Land Area.

The strategic merits of the lands outlined herein lead us to conclude that a variety of industrial uses including industrial multiples, office, manufacturing and some transportation-related activity will be attracted to area.



A I R P O R T R O A D N O R T H S P E C I A L S T U D Y A R E A ( A R E A 4 9 )

OBSERVATIONS The Area 49 Employment Land Precinct in constrained in terms of land area as it comprises

approximately 23 net ha in total, of which approximately 13 ha are presently vacant according to the Hemson / City Employment Land inventory.

The subject lands are situated on the south side of Mayfield Road, the boundary with the Town of Caledon. They are also split into roughly equal proportions on the east and west side of Airport Road. As a consequence of the scale and configuration of the subject lands, the precinct will not be able to accommodate large and perhaps even medium sized space users. Furthermore, it will be challenged to create any sense of presence or destination within the business community by virtue of its small size.

Accessibility to Hwy 410, over 5 km to the west is reasonable and will therefore provide good access to the primary east-west highway corridors located 13 kilometres to the south (Hwy’s 407 and 401).

Lands due east and south of the subject are developed with new residential properties whereas lands on the west side of Airport Road are predominantly vacant or used for agricultural purposes at this time – but designated for residential in the future.

Lands on the north side of Mayfield Road in Caledon are designated for industrial and highway commercial use as we understand it, and constitute the Tullamore Employment Area. The area recently saw the construction of a major AMB Distribution Centre comprising 1.2 million square feet on the east side of Airport Road, 1 km north of Mayfield. In addition, an office / warehouse facility opposite the AMB facility has recently been constructed. Several older industrial uses are also located in the vicinity and a new office / warehouse facility is proposed by ING Real Estate immediately north of the AMB Distribution Centre.

With the exception of the residential subdivision lands adjacent to the subject, lands in the vicinity (Areas 28 and 48 through 50) are generally greenfield and awaiting future development including a very substantial amount of new residential. According to the February 2009 Hemson report evaluating potential population and employment density in greenfield areas, total population could reach over 58,000 persons in the areas, with another 10,000 jobs.

Due to the extent of residential planned in the vicinity of the subject (within Brampton), the potential array of compatible industrial uses will be constrained and therefore impact the attractiveness of the lands by the marketplace for employment land uses.

The strategic location of the subject lands at the intersection of two arterial routes that will undoubtedly be major thoroughfares with relatively high traffic volumes in the future will create interest on the part of commercial space users seeking exposure at this type of location.

CONCLUSION

Based on the above observations, we are of the opinion that the subject lands will be confronted by difficulties in terms of their ability to attract traditional employment land employment, particularly due to the amount and configuration of land as well as the adjacent residential uses planned for the future. We do not



anticipate that the precinct will be a strong industrial destination although industrial multiples may represent some opportunity for an assortment of small enterprises not requiring a location with profile, visibility as well as proximity to the larger business community.

We also find that the precinct will be suited to an office component, particularly space users intending to provide services at the local area level, i.e., the substantial future population base planned in surrounding Brampton districts (Areas 28 and 48 through 50 along with other northern tier neighborhoods in the vicinity) plus the local business base including the growing Tullamore Employment Land Area on the north side of Mayfield Road within Caledon.

Finally, in our experience, the subject lands would potentially be suited to the accommodation of Population-Related employment uses including retail that services the local market area, by virtue of the anticipated population growth in the vicinity, the employment growth being witnessed to the north in Caledon (Tullamore) as well as the strategic position of the lands at the intersection of two arterial routes (Airport and Mayfield Roads).



B R A M E A S T E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D S ( A R E A 4 1 ) OBSERVATIONS

The Area 41 Bram East Employment Land Precinct comprises over 50 parcels of land which are distributed in an irregular fashion as demonstrated on the accompanying Employment Lands map in the southeastern portion of the City in the vicinity of Queen Street (Hwy 7) and The Gore Road. The subject lands comprise approximately 112 net ha in total, of which approximately 81 ha are presently vacant according to the Hemson / City Employment Land inventory.

In general, the precinct has very good road service and accessibility.

o Queen Street provides easy access to the adjoining Vaughan Enterprise Zone Employment Lands situated due east of Hwy 50, as well as an interchange with Hwy 427 (1.5 km). As such, the area has excellent access to the primary east-west highway corridors (401 and 407) in the GTA as well as Pearson International Airport.

o Queen Street also links directly with the City’s largest Employment Land Precinct (Airport Intermodal) 3 km to the west.

o Hwy 50 which borders the Precinct on the east side provides a strong connection to the future Hwy 427 (Area 47) Precinct in Northeast Brampton (4.5 km to the north) as well as Steeles Avenue to the south which provides alternative links to Brampton’s largest employment areas along with the northwestern portion of the City of Toronto.

Lands to the immediate east in the City of Vaughan are either currently vacant or comprised of older industrial space. However they represent the westerly edge of the Vaughan Enterprise Zone, a major Employment District currently undergoing rapid development (notwithstanding the recent economic downturn) with very attractive business park space.

Lands on the north side of Queen Street in several instances abut residential neighborhoods and therefore may be impacted in terms of the type of business activities that are compatible.

A significant portion of the employment lands in the vicinity of The Gore Road and Ebenezer Road intersection have been developed with retail plaza space and as such are not used as employment lands. Vacant lands adjacent to this retail space and generally north of Fogal Road do not offer easy access via arterial routes nor visibility. As such they will be challenged to provide attractive and potentially successful Employment Land options.

Similarly, lands at the northwest intersection of The Gore Road and Queen Street have recently been developed as a retail campus and banquet hall space.

Lands situated at the northeast intersection of Queen and Cherrycrest Drive (Ebenezer Rd) appear to have been undergoing site preparation work for new commercial development. Signage on the site announcing the “Riverstone Square Retail Centre” suggests that non-employment land type uses are being pursued. This is corroborated by the fact that City Development Application files provided to us indicate that an OPA and Rezoning Application was approved in principle (June 2009) for 16,860 square metres of commercial space including a supermarket, retail, office buildings and a hotel on 5.6 ha.



Lands situated at the northwest intersection of Ebenezer and McVean Drive will be challenged to provide attractive and potentially successful Employment Land options by virtue of the fact that they do not offer easy ingress and egress from Queen Street. Furthermore, they find themselves abutting green space on the west side of McVean and residential neighborhoods on the east side of the street.

CONCLUSION

Based on the above observations, we are of the opinion that significant portions of the subject lands are suited to employment land use whereas selected other parcels will be confronted by challenges in terms of their ability to attract traditional employment land employment and therefore be suitable for such activities.

In general we find that lands situated along Hwy 50 and the south side of Queen Street are well suited for employment land activity, including industrial, industrial multiples plus office building space, given their accessibility and visibility characteristics as well as the existing land use activity precedent in the vicinity.

Lands with frontage on the north side of Queen Street are also suited to Employment Land activity such as industrial including multiples plus office building space for similar reasons to those cited above, although we note that the adjacent residential neighborhoods may pose challenges in some cases. Furthermore, two parcels referenced above (northeast Queen and Cherrycrest Drive as well as the northwest intersection of The Gore Road and Queen Street) have already been developed or have approval in principle for non-employment land uses, i.e., retail, and as such will likely not contribute to Employment Land requirements. A third parcel at the northwest intersection of Ebenezer and McVean Drive will also in our view face challenges in terms of its ability to provide competitive Employment Land supply.

Finally, a significant portion of the employment lands in the vicinity of The Gore Road and Ebenezer Road intersection have been developed as retail and therefore do not contribute to the Employment Land supply. Vacant lands immediately adjacent to this retail and generally situated to the north of Fogal Road, will in our view face problems in terms of their ability to provide attractive and potentially successful Employment Land options in the future.

BRAMPTON EMPLOYMENT LANDS REVIEW ADDENDUM A 81


A D D E N D U M A : A D D I T I O N A L F I N D I N G S F R O M P R E C E D I N G E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D R E S E A R C H

As indicated by Section 2 an important component of Cushman & Wakefield’s project mandate was to critically evaluate the substantial body of recent Employment Land research already undertaken for Brampton and recognize this information in our deliberations for land requirements as well as the suitability of new Employment Land precincts in the future. The following section summarizes in a more complete fashion, important observations taken from the recent Hemson Consulting Ltd. research as well as the findings of the Employment and Employment Lands report prepared as part of the Peel Region Official Plan Review by Metropolitan Knowledge International (MKI), dated August 2009.

B R A M P T O N E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D S T R A T E G Y – N O V E M B E R 2 0 0 8 ( H E M S O N R E P O R T ) The following articulates important assumptions and analytical findings from the November 2008 Hemson report that have been considered in the course of our assessment of Brampton Employment Land Requirements. Note: bracketed numbers refer to the source (page reference) in the Hemson report.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS Introduction

1. Hemson defines Employment Land as accommodating a wide range of economic uses including: manufacturing & distribution; warehousing; research & development; commercial, institutional and accessory retail uses; and increasingly, community facilities and Places of Worship. (pp. 1)

2. The majority of Employment Land uses are accommodated within large, land-extensive, low-rise, industrial-type buildings in employment areas strongly oriented towards the transportation network, in particular major highways and arterial roads. (pp. 1)

3. For purposes of the Hemson report, major offices (free standing buildings exceeding 20,000 square feet net) are treated as a separate category of employment, although some may nevertheless be located on employment land. (pp. 3)

4. The employment land inventory in Brampton is defined as: lands designated either Industrial, Business Corridor or Office Use (Schedule A of the 2006 Official Plan) and identified as being within Employment Precincts in the City’s urban structure (Schedule 1: City Concept); the Vales North special policy area; and, scattered sites located outside Employment Precincts. (pp. 3)

5. The potential area for employment land in Northwest Brampton is not included in the employment land inventory, although in a 2002 report, Hemson recommended 400 to 500 net ha in the Northwest urban expansion area. (pp. 3)

6. The Provincial Growth Plan encourages municipalities to designate and preserve lands within settlement areas within the vicinity of major transportation infrastructure. (pp. 7)



7. The employment forecast used by the Hemson report is the preliminary forecast prepared for the City by Small Geographic Unit (SGU) in May 2008. The forecast distinguishes between employment by land use type including major office, employment land and population-related employment. (pp. 9)

8. Major Office Employment is employment in free-standing buildings > 20,000 net sq. ft. (pp. 22)

9. Employment Land Employment is jobs accommodated in primarily low-rise industrial type building space and multiples, the vast majority being located in business parks and industrial areas. (pp. 22)

10. Population-Related Employment is employment that exists in response to a resident population that is primarily not located in employment areas or major office jobs. It includes retail, education, health care, local government and work at home employment. (pp. 22)

Labour Force & Economic Outlook

1. Total employment in the City is forecast to grow from 155,000 in 2006 (“place of work jobs”) to 320,000 in 2031 (more then doubling the current employment, i.e., +165,000). Average annual job growth amounts to 6,600 jobs per year. (pp. 11) By comparison annual average growth over the prior decade stood at 5,100 jobs and 3,750 for the previous 20 years. (pp. 12)

2. Particularly noteworthy is the 5.6% compounded annual growth rate for Brampton employment forecast over the 2006 to 2011 timeframe. This growth was anticipated prior to the dramatic affects of the current economic downturn being fully understood.

3. A substantial outflow of workers residing in Brampton to jobs situated outside the community has been estimated at 70,000 jobs in 2006. (pp. 16)

4. The 320,000 job forecast for 2031 has been estimated “within the context of continued economic growth in Canada, Ontario and the GGH and strong policy directions to achieve a better live-work balance.” (pp. 17) It is considered a reasonable and achievable target for improving the live-work balance and reducing the current level of out-commuting. (pp. 21)

5. Brampton’s share of Peel Region employment increases from 26% at present to 37% in 2031 by accommodating over half of the Region’s growth over the 25 year period. (pp. 21)

6. The City’s Activity Rate, defined as the ratio of employment versus population, is therefore forecast to rise from 36% in 2006 to 44% in 2031. (pp. 21) The 2006 rate is significantly lower than several adjoining communities including Mississauga at 64%, Milton at 64%, Vaughan at 50% and an overall GTAH level at 53%. A rate under 40% is considered to be a relatively low ratio according to Hemson. (pp. 15)

7. Industrial-type activities (measured by employment) had little net growth in the GTAH between 2001 and 2006 although there was a significant increase in building space. This trend indicates a decline in employment density in employment areas. The manufacturing sector in particular was cited as undergoing a restructuring process in response to shifting competitive environments. (pp. 18)

8. While GTAH manufacturing jobs have declined since 2004, total employment has grown through notable growth in other sectors, particularly education, health and social services, trade and professional and business services. (pp. 19)



9. Despite this fact, manufacturing constitutes the largest employment category for Brampton according to the 2006 Census. (pp. 23) Furthermore, the sector saw a slight increase in the number of jobs between the two census years (approximately 1,000 jobs added). (pp. 24)

10. Recent stability seen in manufacturing output despite declining employment levels indicates an increase in employee productivity. (pp. 20)

11. The current economic slowdown is likely to have some short term affects on the non-residential and real estate sectors, however, the GTAH is anticipated to remain the primary economic engine in Ontario. (pp. 20)

12. 30% of Brampton employment growth from 2001 to 2006 occurred in the transportation, warehousing and wholesale trade sectors, which added approximately 6,000 jobs. (pp. 23) The decline seen in manufacturing share of total employment has been compensated by the expansion of the transportation, warehousing and wholesale sector. (pp. 24)

13. Employment Land employment in Brampton (2006) was estimated at 79,500 jobs or 51.3% of total employment while major office jobs stands at 9,200 jobs or 6% of the total. (pp. 25) By comparison, the Region of Peel finds Employment Land employment comprising 55% of the total jobs and Major Office at 15%. (pp. 26) Across the “905” region of the GTA, the Employment Land share of employment also averages 55% (whereas major office stands at 10% on average). (pp. 26)

14. In 2007, there were 97,300 jobs on Brampton Employment Lands, as follows:

80,000 industrial type activities (most of the Employment Land employment) (pp. 27);

6,000 major Office jobs (65% of the City Total) (pp. 27); and,

11,000 Population Related jobs (pp. 27).

15. Employment Land employment is forecast to grow by 87,200 jobs (2006 to 2031), comprising 53% of the City total. (pp. 27) These projections reflect several considerations including:

Larger, more automated buildings; (pp.28)

Growing integration of manufacturing, warehousing and distribution; (pp. 28) and,

Brampton’s industrial orientation and location advantages support large industrial facilities in traditional industrial activities. (pp. 28)

16. Major Office job growth is forecast to accelerate over the same period, reaching 33,100 jobs by 2031 (versus 9,200 jobs in 2006) and constituting 20% of the Total City growth. (pp. 27) The fact that Brampton has not attracted a high proportion of major office employment to date is expected to change as the City’s population and employment base continue to expand. (pp. 30) This evolution is not, however, expected to occur in the short term. (pp. 31)

The location of future demand for major offices in Brampton is anticipated to be largely on employment land, particularly locations with superior transportation access. From a market perspective, the Bram West Employment Area will provide Brampton’s best near-term to mid-term opportunity to establish a major office node. (pp. 31)



Should the province not proceed with a hospital at the Peel Memorial Hospital site, there is an opportunity to accommodate a significant amount of major office space at this location. (pp. 32)

The 2031 employment forecast suggests the Major Office share (13.2% or 42,300 workers) will eventually surpass the current overall “905” average at 10%. (pp. 26 and 28)

17. Population Related employment will increase by 44,800 jobs, assuming a ratio of 1 job per 6.54 residents. (pp. 27)

18. Given that the City will have difficulty attracting significantly more than the amount of office and population related employment that is anticipated in the interim forecasts, for employment to grow, employment land employment must grow. Therefore, for employment land employment to grow, the City must provide an appropriate supply of marketable employment land. (pp. 34)


1. Brampton Employment Land Absorption averaged 75 ha annually between 1995 and 2005. For the 1997 to 2005 period absorption in Brampton comprised 20% of the GTA total with a peak share being achieved in 2005 at 30%. (pp. 14)

2. Virtually the entire supply of employment land is suitable and marketable for continued employment uses. (pp. 36)

3. The current employment land supply is 4,300 net ha including the small amount occupied by major office. (pp. 36) Some 2,880 ha is occupied (67%) with the remaining 1,390 ha being vacant. (Note: vacant lands include 420 ha in Bram West and 460 ha in the Hwy 427 Precinct (Area 47), but do not include any NW Brampton lands. (pp. 37)

4. An assumption for long-term vacancy of part of the vacant supply is made at 5% of the total supply or 210 ha. Therefore, the net effective supply is estimated at 1,180 ha. (pp. 39)

5. Generally servicing is not a constraint to employment land development (pp. 39):

Only 6 sites or 43 ha in Bram West are not within 500 metres of a water or sewer trunk line;

Major highway infrastructure planned includes the Hwy 427 extension, East-West Corridor and North-South Connector; and,

Sithe Energy is constructing an 875 MW generating station to service new development and a new generating station is under construction in Halton Hills at this time.

6. The Brampton economy is oriented strongly to activities dependent on the transportation system, such as warehouse & logistics. It is primarily housed in single story, industrial type buildings that are land extensive within the Employment Areas. Consequently, the building coverage averages approximately 24% on Table 25. (pp. 41)

7. The density of employment on employment land is estimated to be approximately 38 jobs per net ha, or 28 jobs per gross ha as defined in the Growth Plan (Note: employment land employment and land area excludes major retail and offices for these purposes). (pp. 43) Information from the City’s



employment and employment land inventory suggests the following density levels for specific transportation-related uses:

51 warehouse parcels – 13 jobs per net ha and 42% building coverage (43/44); and,

84 truck terminal parcels – 11 lobs per net ha and 25% building coverage (43/44).

8. The demand trend for community uses on employment land is anticipated to continue as the urban land supply becomes more constrained for all uses. (pp. 44)

9. Table 17: the majority of large vacant parcels (>6 ha) are situated in the Hwy 427 (Area 47), Bram West, Airport Intermodal and Bram East precincts. (pp. 46)

10. Approximately 50% of employment growth in the “905” Region will be Employment Land employment. Furthermore, with the exception of some suburban office nodes, the majority of future employment land development will be large-scale industrial type facilities. (pp. 47)

11. Mississauga’s employment land supply is about 85% occupied and will be fully occupied by about 2012. Brampton will accommodate a portion of the demand that would otherwise be served in Mississauga. (pp. 48) For example, Bram West is positioned to act as an extension of the prestige business park activity witnessed in Meadowvale and ultimately, the same is assumed for NW Brampton, once appropriate transportation infrastructure is put in place. (pp. 48)

12. Brampton is well positioned to take advantage of future opportunities (e.g., Mississauga build-out), particularly with respect to goods movement industries, warehousing & logistics, and other lower density, land extensive employment activities. Significantly altering this pattern and increasing employment land density will be a major challenge. (pp. 48)

13. Vaughan & Milton are cited as two particularly notable competitors for future employment opportunities (pp. 49):

They each have vacant supply in the range of 1,200 to 1,400 ha;

In Vaughan, 1,000 ha is in the 427 area so about 620 ha must first await decisions for the final alignment of the Hwy 427 extension; and,

In Milton, the Town is currently planning to bring 600 net ha to market in the Derry Green Corporate business Park along Hwy 401.

Employment Land Requirements

1. At least the current supply of employment land should be maintained. (pp. 50)

2. Additional supply needs to be designated in the NW Brampton urban expansion area, in at least the previously estimated amount of 400 to 500 net ha. (pp. 50)

3. Economic trends indicate that densities on employment land are likely to continue to decline in the future due to:

Continued development of larger and more efficient industrial buildings which are being built at densities lower than the current City-wide experience; (pp. 50)



The employment density of existing areas, particularly the larger, older areas will begin to decline. (pp. 50) Note: this factor is not accounted for in the needs analysis conducted by Hemson. (pp. 51)

4. The manufacturing sector is expected to continue to be a major contributor to the economy of the GGH and the whole of Ontario. (pp. 51)

5. Warranted additional Employment Land Analysis (Table 19) assumes net additional Employment Land employment of 76,300 jobs (versus the 2006 to 2031 forecast of 87,200 – the difference being an adjustment for post-2006 development activity according to Hemson). Furthermore, employment density levels (jobs per ha) are tested at 45 (assumes a density increase to levels seen in other communities), 38 (current City average) and 25 (characteristic of new warehousing and distribution facilities). (pp. 52)

6. Consequently, the shortage of employment land by 2031 assuming the previous estimate of supply from NW Brampton (400 ha) ranges from 120 to 1,470 ha. Note: these estimates are conservative as they do not account for declining densities in existing (older) precincts as well as the portion of population-related employment that typically locates on employment land. (pp. 52)

7. There is not much evidence that the pattern of land uses is shifting significantly, but Hemson notes several factors that suggest future potential for employment intensification may improve. These include business adaptations resulting from the current recession (intensification) and continued manufacturing structure restructuring. (pp. 53)

8. Permitting major office on employment land is another way to increase density on employment land, although it would be contrary to other Growth Plan objectives that serve to focus such development in Urban Growth Centres. (pp. 53)

9. To take advantage of future opportunities, the City will require an appropriate supply to remain competitive. Furthermore, the supply of land available in the western part of the City will be important to enable the City to compete with lands in Halton Region. (pp. 56)

MAJOR CONCLUSIONS 1. Additional employment land supply should be designated in NW Brampton.

At an absolute minimum, the 400 to 500 net ha recommended in the 2002 report by Hemson should be provided; (pp. 58)

Reducing the employment land need by planning for significantly higher densities is not recommended, (pp. 58 and 59)

Existing employment land supply will be built out by about 2021; (pp. 58)

The City will play a key role in achieving the Region’s forecast and therefore the Provincial vision for growth; (pp. 58)

The maximum possible employment land designation should be put in place for the NW Brampton Area; (pp. 60)



As a result of changing market conditions since the 2002 report and the City’s significant shortage of employment land, it is recommended that a larger amount of employment land be designated in the Northwest, i.e., the 800 net ha is recommended which is very close to the Growth Scenario 2 (850 ha) described in the original (2002) analysis; (pp. 61)

Employment Land should be of the highest quality possible. To be most competitive, employment land must be well served by major road transportation infrastructure – preferably 400-series highways. They should also be large enough to provide a wide range of site sizes, develop a sense of place and be appropriately buffered from surrounding uses. Flexibility of use and a high design standard is also recommended. (pp. 62)

2. All future employment land designations should have clearly defined boundaries such as arterial roads or natural features. Therefore, consideration could be given to adjusting the boundary definition in the Hwy 427 Precinct (Area 47) to correspond with Clarkway Drive, thereby creating a better interface between residential and employment uses as well a create some additional supply. (pp. 62)

A S S E S S M E N T O F P L A N N E D & P O T E N T I A L G R O W T H I N G R E E N F I E L D A R E A S The following articulates important assumptions and analytical findings derived from the February 2009 Hemson report that considers future development (residential as well as various employment categories including employment land employment) planned for greenfield areas of the City, i.e., designated greenfield areas situated outside of the built-up boundary as defined by the Province (pp. 3).

KEY ASSUMPTIONS & FINDINGS 1. Over 100,000 jobs would be accommodated at build-out of greenfield areas. For these purposes,

jobs include employment land, population related and major office jobs. (pp. 18)

2. Hwy 427 Precinct (Area 47) jobs in Northeast Brampton assume the employment area boundary being on Clarkway Drive. Consequently, the available land in this case amounts to 580 net ha versus 469 net ha assumed by the November 2008 Strategy report where the boundary was assumed to be east of Clarkway. The net additional amount of land equals 111 net ha. (pp. 18)

3. For Northwest Brampton, the analysis assumes 600 net ha employment land. (pp. 18)

4. Employment density in the precincts is assumed to be 45 persons per net ha, a weighted average that assumes the following job ratio per net ha: Employment Land uses – 38; Major Office – 250; Population-Related uses – 75. Consequently, the Greenfield Employment Area job capacity totals 77,650 jobs at build-out, situated on 1,795 net ha. (pp. 19)

5. Industry trends cited as being particularly relevant include:

Trends in manufacturing – a significant portion of Brampton’s planned economic sector – indicate the density of jobs is on the decrease as manufacturing output continues to grow at a more rapid pace than manufacturing employment; (pp. 25)



Logistics and distribution – also representing a significant portion of Brampton’s economic activity – is accommodated in large, efficient, and highly automated distribution facilities with relatively low employment densities; (pp. 25)

New generation facilities combining storage with other functions such as offices, assembly and manufacturing may increase demand for industrial-type buildings in key locations, such as those offered by planned employment lands in Brampton. (pp. 25)

6. Built form for industrial-type buildings is determined by the economic activity on the site and its requirements for truck loading, truck movement and parking. Manufacturing and distribution which predominate in newer areas of Brampton develop single-storey buildings because the form is economic. (pp. 30)

7. One of the constraints on changing built form is that building density on employment land in the GTAH has already increased significantly over the past 20 years as witnessed by an increased level of building coverage and ceiling heights. Lot coverages for typical buildings have increased from about 30 percent to around 40% and even to 50% in some cases. (pp. 30)

8. Companies have sought to become more efficient by consolidating their operations and their space – as for example, the building of one large building in place of several smaller ones. (pp. 31)

9. Redirecting office to employment areas would increase employment density, though this would run contrary to Growth Plan policies seeking to concentrate office space in Major transit nodes. (pp. 31)

10. Ultimately, there is a limited role for land use planning to regulate employment activity as the level of employment in a given building is tied to activity in the building, the corporate structure of the firm, and level of business being conducted. (pp. 31)

P E E L R E G I O N O F F I C I A L P L A N R E V I E W : E M P L O Y M E N T A N D E M P L O Y M E N T L A N D S D I S C U S S I O N P A P E R ( A U G U S T 2 0 0 9 )

OVERVIEW The following articulates important assumptions and analytical findings derived from the August 2009 Employment and Employment Lands Discussion Paper prepared as part of the Peel Region Official Plan Review by Metropolitan Knowledge International (MKI).

KEY ASSUMPTIONS & FINDINGS Economic Considerations

1. Providing good road access to major manufacturing and warehouse nodes is of increasing importance as congestion worsens. (pp. 14)

2. Land prices in Peel are relatively high compared to neighboring areas in York and Halton Regions and will likely influence business location decisions. This dynamic is likely one of the key drivers of the strength of the warehouse and distribution node in Brampton/Mississauga – and will be a growing influence in the future. (pp. 15)



3. The Brampton intermodal facility and Pearson Airport sustain several industry sectors, and their existence should provide stability to business retention within the Region. (pp. 15)

4. Peel’s centrality takes on additional importance in an age of very high fuel prices. (pp. 15)

5. The growing service sector (recent and projected) means more new employment in the Region will be occurring in offices, industrial multiples/mixed-use buildings, and in institutions. (pp. 15)

6. Intensification in the service sector is much more likely than in traditional industrial uses which are presently being impacted by trends towards automation and jobless growth. (pp. 15)

7. The impact of automation and outsourcing of production will likely cause continuing downward pressure on densities in industrial areas. (pp. 15)


1. MKI utilizes the Hemson inventory of employment land as the basis for its analysis, i.e. 4,280 net ha for the total inventory and approximately 1,400 net ha vacant in 2007. However, the adjustment factor employed for a long-term vacant land supply differs insofar as MKI assumes 10% of total vacant in 2006 (149 ha) versus Hemson at 5% of the total inventory (210 ha). (pp. 21)

Employment Land Needs

1. The forecast employment allocation by municipality in Peel Region used to develop the land budget in the MKI report is the “Intensification Option” developed for the April 30, 2009 Managing Growth Workshop. For Brampton, it agrees with the 2006 total employment count in the City at 155,000 jobs. Over the succeeding 25 years, growth in Brampton employment amounts to 159,000 jobs in reaching a total employment of 314,000 by 2031 (including “work at home” jobs). This forecast comes in at 6,000 fewer jobs over the forecast period or 3.6% of the 165,000 jobs anticipated by Hemson. Consequently, the job growth forecast within the greenfield districts is correspondingly lower by 6,000 persons at 84,000 jobs. (pp. 24)

2. With respect to the allocation of employment growth by type, the MKI report allocates the reduction in employment between employment lands and major office facilities as described in the following exhibit. (pp. 25) Note: the Population-Related Employment was not adjusted as the author felt the number was already to low.

3. Data available from Mississauga employment surveys over the period 2002 to 2007 illustrates a decline in Employment Land density from 46 jobs per net ha (’02) to 44 jobs per net ha (’07). This trend is consistent with experience seen elsewhere in the GTA. (pp. 27)

4. Density assumptions for land Need by Employment Type are presented below for the MKI Report. For comparative purposes, assumptions utilized by Hemson for the February 2009 Greenfield

Major OfficePopulation

ServingEmployment

LandTotal

MKI 31,200 44,800 83,000 159,000

Hemson (2008) 33,100 44,800 87,200 165,100

Variance -1,900 0 -4,200 -6,100



Report are also provided. Note: MKI indicates that the Major Office rate is lower in Brampton versus Mississauga (at 250 jobs per hectare) due to the likelihood that there will be more structured parking employed, therefore yielding greater density rates. It also assumes that Employment Land density will hold constant as intensification initiatives are expected to be offset by declining density trends due to economic and business factors. (pp. 28)

5. An allocation of employment by type to Employment Lands in Brampton is presented in the following exhibit for MKI, along with approximations taken from the Hemson report (based on 2007 Employment Survey and 2006 Census – “place of work” data). It is notable that the author states the Major Office share is low in light of market trends, and that the Population Serving share is also likely conservative. In both cases, assumptions were made which the author admits are counter to market trends. Both assumptions are also significantly lower than the shares indicated for Mississauga. (pp. 28)

6. The Land Need (net ha shortfall) calculated by MKI is 908 ha by 2031 (assuming density rates indicated above, including 38 jobs per net ha for employment land employment). If we delete the land attributable Major Office (78 ha) and Population Serving (25 ha), the net requirement attributable to Employment Land employment equals 805 ha. This corresponds with the mid-point of the range (830 ha) indicated by Hemson as being the Pure Employment Land Need on Table 19. (pp. 30)


ServingEmployment

Land

MKI 200 75 38

Hemson (2008) 250 75 38


ServingEmployment

Land

MKI 50% 50% 100%

Hemson (2008) 60% 15% 90%

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