Feasibility of Nuclear Power Plant for Jordan
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Transcript of Feasibility of Nuclear Power Plant for Jordan
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
Technical and Economical
Feasibility Study of Nuclear
Power Plant and Water
Desalination Plant for Jordan
Ned Xoubi, PhDJordan Atomic Energy Commission
ھيئــة الطـاقـة النوويـة ا�ردنيـة,الدكتور نضال الزعبيA presentation to IAEA Pre-project Experts Mission
June, 6, 2006
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
OUTLINE
�� Introduction ..... JordanIntroduction ..... Jordan
�� Current Power Generation and Future Current Power Generation and Future
DemandsDemands
�� Current Water Situation and Future Current Water Situation and Future
DemandsDemands
�� Why NuclearWhy Nuclear
�� Feasibility StudyFeasibility Study
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
Total Area: 89,544 sq. km
Land area 88,802 sq. km
About 80% is dessert
INTRODUCTION
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
Population 5,350,000 (2004)
27285.5%4573sub total
1442.5%135Madaba
16814.9%799Zarqa
27038.3%2047Amman
2932.3%123Ajlun
3186.7%356Balqa
3933.0%161Jarash
60617.8%952Irbid
Density # / Sq km(%)(000)Governorate
POPULATION DENSITY
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
FACTS & FIGURES
200519.5As % of GDP
2005$2,339 Individual Income
2004$2,133 GDP per Capita
200523.9As % of Imports
2005$2,500Energy Imports (million)
20043.40%Inflation Rate
200412.60%GDP growth rate
2005$12,842 GDP (million)
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
Jordan’s political stability and economic prospects depend heavily on Jordan’s ability to find realistic solutions to
Rapid increase in Energy Demands
Scarce water resources
The Big Challenge
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
Jordan Electricity
Consumption and Demand
Electricity Consumption will double in 11 years
8,089 (GWh) in 2004 15,077 (GWh) 2015
Source MEMR, Jordan
Electricity Consumption (GWh)
0
2000
4000
60008000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
We need at least
810 MW(e) power plant with 100% availability
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
Electrical Energy Consumption by Sector 2005
Houshold
34%
Others
2%
Street Lighting
3%WaterPumping
15%
Commercial
15%
Industrial
31%
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
Total Net Electricity
Generation, 1980-2003
KWh per capita / month
Jordan 125
Israel 737
= 4200 / 8200 MW(e)
Source Energy Information Administration, DOE, USA
We need at least
6 /12 Nuclear power plant (700MW(e) )
Total Net Electricity Generation (TWh)
0
1020
3040
5060
7080
90
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Jordan
Israel
Finland
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Jordan NEPCO electrical production cost vs.
Jordan cost
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
Jordan is one of the ten most water-deprived countries in the world
A child born in 1960 entered the country where fresh water available
annually was around 530 CM per capitaBy the year 2025, that amount will have diminished to 91 CM per capita
a drop of over 80%
WATER CHALENGE
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
The average U.S. citizen has more than 9,000 cubic meters of fresh water available per year, The average Jordanian citizen has less than 157 CM/year (All uses)
The average Jordanians pays 3% of GDP/capita for water among the highest percentages in the world
The rate in Europe and USA is 0.5 - 1.0%
A Precious Commodity
Source WAJ
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
Water Supply for Household and
Municipal Purposes
525,353,200276Total
72499,80036.2South
391,484,80057.2North
543,363,600182.6Middle
per capitapopulationmillionRegion
Water supply for household and municipal purposes (MCM), 2004
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
Total Demand, Available Sources
and Deficit in MCM
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
MCM
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Demand
Sources
Deficit
Projected Water Demand
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
$1.01Total cost of water per cubic meter based on billed water
$0.66O&M cost of water per cubic meter based on billed water
Water Cost
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
F 1280: AWSA-2 OBSERVATION WELL
AZRAQ BASIN
PGE: 323783 PGN : 147863 ALT : 514m TD: 195 Aquifer: Bs+B4 Type: Recorder
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
DATE
S.W
.L [
m b
gl]
SWL (m bgl)
Groundwater depletion due to over exploitation in Azraq Basin
Groundwater Depletion
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
Ec trend with time in AWSA15
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Time (yrs)
EC
(
Salinity increase in groundwater due to overexploitation
Water Quality
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
To conduct a feasibility study aiming at providing a long term solution for a sustainable source of electricity and fresh water in Jordan, at an economical price.
Project Objective
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
Is nuclear power a viable option to fulfill the energy and water needs of Jordan ?
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
Production of a comprehensive report that contains the eleven outputs which are believed to cover all aspects of deciding to use nuclear energy in Jordan. The report should help the decision maker, energy planners and power generation companies make a clear decision as to the viability of using nuclear energy as an energy source.
Study … Comprehensive ….. Credible
…… Solid ……. Clear …….Scientific
Outcome …
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
Study Outputs
1. Criteria for selecting a suitable reactor type
2. Nuclear fuel selection criteria
3. Nuclear power plant design criteria
4. Nuclear plant sitting criteria and available areas
5. Assessment of Jordan qualified technical manpower, and nuclear knowledge
6. Jordan public and governmental acceptance of nuclear power
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
Study Outputs
7.7. Assessment of regional and international political Assessment of regional and international political
positions to building a nuclear power plant in positions to building a nuclear power plant in
JordanJordan
8.8. Jordan projected future needs of energy demandsJordan projected future needs of energy demands
9.9. Economics of using nuclear energy compared to Economics of using nuclear energy compared to
other conventional energy sources, in light of other conventional energy sources, in light of
increasing fuel prices.increasing fuel prices.
10.10. Jordan projected future needs of fresh water Jordan projected future needs of fresh water
demandsdemands
11.11. Jordan economic climate and market willingness Jordan economic climate and market willingness
to invest in nuclear powerto invest in nuclear power
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
Electricity
�� Electricity production capacity AnalysisElectricity production capacity Analysis
�� Demand analysisDemand analysis
�� Energy demand modeling and computationsEnergy demand modeling and computations
�� Electrical Demand projectionElectrical Demand projection
�� Electrical grid map markingElectrical grid map marking
�� Nuclear cost analysisNuclear cost analysis
�� Economic modelingEconomic modeling
�� Energy cost comparisonEnergy cost comparison
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
WaterWater
�� Fresh water resources analysisFresh water resources analysis
�� Demand analysisDemand analysis
�� Water demand modeling computationsWater demand modeling computations
�� Demand projectionDemand projection
�� Desalination !!Desalination !!
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
Questions