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FASHION FORECASTING

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WHAT IS FASHION FORECASTING ?

Fashion forecasting is the prediction of the trends and styles of apparel and accessories

which are new directions in fashion, that the majority of people would like to buy at a

given time and place. It is anticipating the customers wants & needs by Designers,

Merchandisers & Buyers.

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WHY DO WE NEED TO FORECAST ?

• Fashion – It is the style or styles most popular at a given time. The term

implies 4 components: Style, Acceptance, Taste & Change.

• Because of the above 4 components fashion is cyclic .

• It is impossible to ask consumers what they will want to wear a year or 2

in advance – they would not know themselves.

• Because designers, merchandisers & retailers have to work well ahead of

the season (minimum of 2 seasons) so as to manufacture stocks in time

for the season & to keep the business going they have to learn to

anticipate the customers wants & needs – which in turn is called

forecasting.

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FASHION FORECASTING INCLUDES FOLLOWING ACTIVITIES :-

• Studying market conditions – how the consumers buying

behavior is influenced by society, economics, technology &

the environment

• Noting the lifestyles of the customers

• Feedback from customers

• Past data analysis

• Observing “street fashion” & what celebrities are wearing

• Keeping up with current events, media, arts & the mood of

the public

• Surveying Fashion publications, catalogs, magazines &

fashion websites

• Evaluating popular designer collections

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TO FORECAST KNOWING THE

CONSUMER & THE TARGET MARKET IS

IMPORTANT

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EACH CUSTOMER IS DIFFERENT!

Knowing your consumer :-

• Demographic details

• Income

• Lifestyle

• Brand preferences

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MARKET RESEARCH

To know the Target market, Market Research is required. Manufactures & retailers must constantly research their target market to learn buying habits & preferences

It consists of following activities• CONSUMER RESEARCH• SHOPPING• SALES RESEARCH• TREND ANAYLISIS

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CONSUMER RESEARCH

• Manufacturers & Retailers may ask consumers about their buying

preferences.

• Consumer reactions are complied & tabulated to find preferences

for certain garments or accessories, colors or sizes.

• This information can be used to create new products to fit specific

consumer tastes.

CONSUMER RESEARCHCan be done in various ways :

• Buyers & sales associates may talk with customers in the store or with store staff.

• Manufacturers or retailers may hire market research companies for surveys by phone

or mail to make inquiries & to hold consumer focus group meetings.

• Consumer focus groups are meetings of target customers usually selected by a

market research firm to meet with manufacturers or retailers. These groups discuss

the pros & cons of merchandise or other aspects of shopping satisfaction.

• Forming a Loyalty Club & getting feedback through mails from the customers

• From the dealers or retailers selling those products

• Analyzing the customer complaints or garments returned

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SHOPPING• To study what consumers want &

need, designers & merchandisers

also “shop” in retail stores to see

what merchandise is selling best.

• Designers & merchandisers compare

the styling, price, fit & quality of

lines that compete with their own

range.

• It also helps in Trend spotting .

There are 2 methods of shopping:

• Directional Shopping

• Comparison shopping

DIRECTIONAL SHOPPING• Directional Shopping - trips to gain

inspiration for design concepts for a

new season.

• Buying team visits stores stocking

merchandise following different

trends.

• Depending on the product type &

the company’s travel budget,

designers & buying teams visit major

fashion cities.

DIRECTIONAL SHOPPING• Stores of most influential designers & retailers,

usually in a higher price bracket than the

market they design for are visited.

• They may also visit mass market stores which

are aimed at a younger market & or are more

expensive than their own range.

• Basically the buying team makes notes on

shapes, details, colors & fabrics for reference

• After this entire exercise a picture can be

formed of the key trends which are coming

through.

DIRECTIONAL SHOPPING

• They return with “bought samples” (notes, sketches & garments) for

inspiration.

• Some times buying teams are given a budget to buy garments during

directional shopping trips.

• London, Paris & New York are destinations popular with designers for

most product types & market levels.

• Milan is often visited by lingerie designers.

• Children's wear designers may find more inspiration in Tokyo.

DIRECTIONAL SHOPPING

• A directional shopping trip to New

York usually includes visits to

Macy’s, Bloomingdales & Henri

Bendel in Manhattan.

COMPARATIVE SHOPPING• Comparative Shopping is often referred

to as “Comp Shop”.

• It refers to apparel associates study to

of rival products sold in retail stores.

• Usually undertaken several times each

season by the buying/design teams.

• Involves observing the current

merchandise in the stores of

competitors which sell comparable

ranges (similar product types & prices).

COMPARATIVE SHOPPING

• The aim of Comparative Shopping is not to copy

competing retailers’ products.

• It is conducted to be aware of the choice of

merchandise on offer to target customer to ensure

that the company offers consumer value for money &

is aware of developments.

COMPARATIVE SHOPPING

• Report - sketches & a grid with descriptions of

products compared with prices, fabrics & colours of

similar merchandise from competing stores.

• This report concludes by analyzing how competitors’

ranges compare with each other & noting any

important trends or styles which are missing from the

company’s range.

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SALES RESEARCH – PAST DATA ANAYLISIS

• Every manufacturer & retailer researches their

own sales records.

• Rising sales statistics show what fashion trends are

developing

• Declining sales show what styles have passed their

peak.

• Overall weak sales show that a style is not meeting

consumer needs for fashion, quantity or fit.

• By careful monitoring sales records, retailers and

merchandisers can see trends.

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PAST DATA ANAYLISIS

• Each style before going in production is

allocated a Style number for easy

tracking

• Tracking the sell through of each style

number category wise based on the

shelf life

• Collecting the best & the worst

performers

• Analyzing reasons for the same

• Collecting similar data for colors to

arrive at the color palette for the season

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OBSERVING TRENDS

• Identifying the product category & its

competitors

• What is their most sought after

product/style?

• Observing the styles, colors or trends

widely used

• Identifying its specialty

• Traveling for International Fairs &

Trade Shows

• Visiting retail outlets

• Compiling the Data & styles

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TREND ANAYLISIS

• FASHION TREND – Fashion trend are the styling ideas that major collections

have in common. They indicate the direction in which fashion is moving. The

trend may appear in a new or unique fabrication, silhouette, or other design

elements that appears in multiple collections. New trend appears in small

doses until it spreads to other collections. Designers for mainstream

manufacturers analyze the collections to understand trend

• TREND FOR TARGET MARKET – Diverse consumer age segments & lifestyle

create many separate market niches, each with its own trends. With today's

segmented market a trend may be confined to a single market niche.

Designers & merchandisers should be able to decide which trend is best suited

for their consumer group.

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TIME AND ACTION CALENDAR

It is designed to control the key events

needed to get the

• right apparel products,

• in the right mix,

• at the right price

• to the right customer

• at the right time.

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A PLANNING TOOL

It is the central mechanism from which

all marketing schedules and all

merchandising and manufacturing plans

evolve.

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A PLANNING TOOL

It is the clock that drives

merchandising product development

schedules, manufacturing planning and

shipping schedules.

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A PLANNING TOOLIt sets forth the starting and

completion dates for all critical events

necessary to achieve a successful

season.

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A PLANNING TOOLThe calendar includes the target dates

for each event such as pre production

garment approval, lab dip approval,

pattern approvals and when graded sates

of pattern should be sent out.

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A Planning ToolThe calendar includes information

about the name of the buyer, season,

style, wash and quantity.

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KEY ELEMENTS

• Line preview dates by season.

• Line release dates by season.

• Start ship date

• End ship date

• Weekly sales plan

• Weekly shipping plans

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LINE PREVIEW DATE

It is the merchandiser’s deadline for

having all prototypes and pricing for a

new product line completed.

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Line Preview Date

Merchandisers work back from this

date to create their product

development plans.

It is the date of seasonal sales

meeting where the merchandising team

presents the line to the sales force.

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LINE RELEASE DATEIt is the merchandisers deadline for

having all sales samples ready for the

sales team to begin presenting the new

line to the customers.

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LINE RELEASE DATEThis deadline is crucial to the success

of the sales effort, since most sales

representative schedule their earliest

appointments with their most

important customers.

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Weekly Sales Plan► It measures the effectiveness of a

product line for the merchandising

department.

► A graphic analysis of this plan can

project increase or decrease in overall

sales for a season.

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Weekly Shipping PlanIt shows season to date as well as

shipping statistics for a specific week or

monthly time period.

It helps to determine whether or not

the product mixes being delivered to

distribution meet the ship ability.

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DETERMINATION OF LEAD TIMECPM is used.

•It is the key to a successful

merchandising calendar.

It determines the critical functions

necessary to perform an activity or series

of activities required to achieve an overall

objective.

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DETERMINATION OF LEAD TIME

After the critical functions are

selected, each one must be analyzed to

determine the time required to

accomplish it.

A typical merchandising calendar mayhave 25 to 50 functions for a product

line.

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CRITICAL PATH METHOD

It defines critical and non-critical tasks

with the goal of preventing time-frame

problems and process bottlenecks.

The length of the critical path

determines the minimum time in which

the entire project can be completed.

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CRITICAL PATH METHOD

It highlights those activities which

must be performed very rapidly, if the

total project completion time is to be

reduced.

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CRITICAL PATH METHOD

Specify the individual activities.

Determine the sequence of those

activities.

Draw a network diagram.

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CRITICAL PATH METHOD

Estimate the completion time for each

activity.

Identify the critical path (longest path

through the network)

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SIGNIFICANCE OF CPM

CPM is the key to successfulmerchandising calendar.It determines the critical functions necessary to perform an activity or series of activities required to achieve an overall objective.When a critical activity is delayed it forces all subsequent tasks to be delayed.

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DETERMINING CRITICAL PATH

•The activities involved in development,

execution and delivery need to be

analyzed.

•Determine the time required to

accomplish them.

•Determine the critical path.