Seminar on Fashion Forecasting ProcessPresented By k.n.chatterjee
CONTENTS Objective Trend Chasers Define Forecasting Diffusion of Innovation The consumer adoption process Fashion Specialties Defining Fashion Forecasters toolbox: Visualizing the diffusion process Forecasting in the Textile & Apparel Industries
Objective Understand the multifceted character of fashion. Analyze the trajectory of Fashion Change. Identify the concept of spirit of times, as a framework for understanding and interpreting Fashion Change. Understand the breadth and depth of forecasting system. Identify the role of forecasting in the textile and apparel industry.
Trend Chasers- Who, Why, What, Where, When & howLike the storm-chaser the forecasters locate the spawning grounds of trends and use their skill and knowledge to identify emerging concepts. They then pass-on their findings to other forecasters, marketers and the press setting up the chain reaction that people usually call as FASHION. Forecasters work in many kind of firms for designer, advertising agency, trade organizations, apparel brands & retail chains.
Fashion Forecasting ???It can be compared to chasing the future with the butterfly net but spotting trend is not that difficult for people who immerse themselves in popular cultures and trade news. Forecasters pluck immerging trends out of public information by becoming sensitive to directional signals that others miss usually. Forecasters always look for the new, the fresh and innovative and then analyzing the Whys behind it.
Fashion CurvesA D O P T E R s
Steps in developing a Fashion ForecastStep #1 Identify the basic act about past trends and forecasts. Step #2 Determine the causes of change in the past. Step #3 Determine the differences between past forecasts and actual behavior. Step #4 Determine the factors likely to affect trends in the future. Step #5 Apply forecasting tools and techniques, to predict reliably. Step #6 Follow-up the forecast to determine the reasons for significant deviations from expectations. Step #7 Revise the forecast when necessary.
Diffusion of InnovationSomething new-an innovation-is proposed. It may appear in hit movie, T.V. show, or music video and influence the buying decision of million. In fashion terms the innovation may be the invention of new fiber, a new finish for denim, introduction of an unusual color range, a modification in a silhouette or detail, a different way to wear an accessory or mood expressed in a distinctive style. Once introduction, it diffuses through the population as more &more consumer have a chance either to accept or reject it.
Innovations life cycleEarly Adopters Of Opinion leader No of Adopters Innovator majority
laggards Late Adopters
Characteristic of an InnovationRoger (1983) identified characteristic that 1. Relative Advantage 2. Compatibility 3. Complexity 4. Trial ability 5. Obserability
One Other characteristic inhibits or encourages adoption of innovation perceived risk.1. 2. 3. Economic risk Enjoyment risk Social risk
The consumer adoption process1. Adoption process by Roger (1962) included the stages of: Awareness Interest Evaluation Trial Adoption or rejection of the innovation.
2. Recent version of the process as outline by Roger (1983) including the following stages:
Knowledge Persuasion Decision Implementation confirmation
3. Robertson (1971) proposed another model of the adoption process with following stages:
Problem perception Awareness Comprehension Attitude formation Legitimation Trial Adoption Dissonance
Fashion SpecialtiesForecasting is more than just attending runway show and picking out potential trend can be knocked off at lower price. It is a process that span shift in color & style, change in lifestyle & buying pattern and different ways of doing business. 1. Long-term forecasting (5-years or more) is way to explore possible future and build a shared vision of an organization direction and development. 2. short-term forecasting (more than one year) involves periodic monitoring of the long term vision and revision as circumstances dictate.
Consumer scan Trend analysis Cultural indicator Combined forecast
Partner & competitors
1. Fashion scan:Traveling to the fashion capitals Scanning print, broadcast, and online sources for clues. Networking with people in creative field.
2. Consumer scan:Consumer research is an important part of fashion forecasting today. Consumer segmentation attempts to identify of cluster of people who Share characteristics, usually some combination of demographic, lifestyle, attitude, and behavior.
3. Fashion analysisTogether, Fashion scan and consumer scan provide input for fashion analysis.
4.Social & economic trendsThe shift to a casual life style and a consumer resistant to following trend are manifestations of deep cultural changes in society
5.Trend AnalysisDrawing on fashion and consumer scan and on identification of social and economic trends analysis detects short and long term trends that affect business prospects
6.Competitve AnalysisApparel competes for consumer attention and dollars with many other alternatives, including electronics and entertainment. To be a competitive in such a business environment , companies must observe the plan and capabilities of competing firms through regular tracking of key information.
7.Integrated ForecastingA team approach to forecasting means continuous information sharing between functional groups with the goal of increasing the quality of the forecast.
Defining Fashion In simplest terms fashion is a style that is popular in the present or a set of trends that have been accepted by a wide audience. Fashion is a complex phenomenon from psychological, sociological, cultural or commercial points of view . Fashion as a social and psychological response Fashion as popular culture Fashion as change Fashion as universal phenomenon Fashion as a transfer of meaning Fashion as an economic stimulus Fashion and gender differences
Forecasters toolbox: Visualizing the diffusion processThe visualization of diffusion in the Rogers model (1962) shows a two-step flow First step involves transmission of new ideas through the impersonal influence of mass media & marketer based information to innovator and leader. Second step depends on the personal influence within social group as new ideas move from fashion leader to fashion followers.
Impersonal influenceMagazines, T.V, advertising, Fashion promotion
Step 2 Personal influence
Fashion followers Innovative consumers Opinion leaders
Forecasting in the Textile & Apparel IndustriesEven the fastest fast-fashion company need a picture of what consumers will see new and exciting. Fashion forecasting provides the tool to create that picture. Forecasters today integrate traditional and electronic approaches to the process of forecasting. Forecasting in apparel planning &scheduling. Scouting for fashion Trends.
Long-term forecastingFiber components Yarn product Weavers& knitters Textile Forecasting Fabric Structure & textures Fabric Pattern & prints Retailers Design concept Silhouette & Details
Economic cycle Lifestyle trends Social trends Consumers preferences Trends in Arts
Apparel Designers & manufactures
Short tern forecastingColor Trends Style Testing Sales forecasting