Farm Focus · 6/29/2020 · Farm Focus Monday June 29, 2020 Call Dan Cowger at 866-438-1065 Or...
19
Transcript of Farm Focus · 6/29/2020 · Farm Focus Monday June 29, 2020 Call Dan Cowger at 866-438-1065 Or...
Today’s Prices
Grains: Price Change
Corn - July 2020 3.26 0.09
Corn - December 2020 3.35 0.10
Soybeans - July 2020 8.67 0.02
Soybeans - November 2020 8.62 0.00
KC Wheat - July 2020 4.29 0.08
Mpls Wheat - July 2020 4.96 (0.03)
Outside Markets: Price Change
Crude Oil - August 2020 39.73 1.24
Ethanol - July 2020 1.16 0.05
Gold - July 2020 1,775 1.90
U.S. Dollar Index 97.53 0.13
Dow Jones Industrials 25,505 489
Live Cattle - August 2020 96.48 0.45
Feeder Cattle - August 2020 133.50 0.90
Lean Hogs - August 2020 48.45 0.33
Grain Market News
• Grains prices were higher to sharply higher across the board today.
• Last week the grain markets were bombarded with negative news.
• Today it appears that the Commodity Funds are covering some of their short.
• Maybe banking some profits ahead of USDA’s Stocks and Acreage reports.
• Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed the funds holding a large
short position in corn while holding a moderate long position in soybeans.
– Managed Money Funds in Corn: short 277,000 contracts = 1.385 billion bushels.
– Managed Money Funds in Beans: long 44,000 contracts = 220 million bushels.
– Managed Money Funds in All Wheat: short 99,000 contracts = 495 million bushels.
• Current weather is favorable…the forecast is looking warmer and drier.
High Temperatures: 6-28-20
7-Day Observed Precipitation
14-Day Observed Precipitation
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast
Grain Market News
• Weather will be an important factor for grain prices for another 45-60 days.
• First, it will be the weather for corn pollination which is expected to peak in the
middle of July.
• Weather will be also be key for the yield sensitive flowering and pod setting
phases for soybeans.
• The grain market will have some type of reaction to USDA’s reports.
• Quarterly Grain Stocks as of June 1st.
• Planted Acreage report.
• The reports will be released at 11:00 am central time tomorrow.
• Grains stocks can produce surprises, but we believe that biggest opportunity
for a surprise will be in the Planted Acreage report.
Global Coronavirus Statistics
Corn: Weekly Export Inspections
Soybeans: Weekly Export Inspections
Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections
Corn Chart
Soybean Chart
Wheat Chart
Grain Marketing RecommendationsCorn Beans Wheat
Current Position Current Position Current Position
2019 Crop:
2020 Crop:
97% of production sold.
40% of insured bushels sold.
2019 Crop:
2020 Crop:
95% of production sold.
50% of insured bushels sold.
2019 Crop:
2020 Crop:
100% of production sold.
50% of insured bushels sold.
Corn Sales Recommendations Bean Sales Recommendations Wheat Sales Recommendations
Sell 30% of 2020 insured bushels if CZ20 hits $4.10. None None
Options Recommendations Options Recommendations Options Recommendations
Long calls against 100% of previous sales. Long calls against 100% of previous sales. Long calls against 100% of previous sales.
