Josef Schmidhuber, FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

FAO's long term outlook for global agriculture:

Basis for a GHG emissions baseline and food security assessments under Climate Change

1. Basis for a GHG emissions baseline

~800 food products in SUAs

~80 FBS products

1. Projections: 34 demand products, 45 crops, Land use, yields, water, etc.

2. Corporate effort: AGA, AGL, NRL, NRC, FI, FO, ES

3. External expertise: IIASA, USDA, WHO, and many others.

4. Full integration of technical

knowledge and

conceptual/ modelling rigour

World Agriculture: towards 2050

GHG past assessment

AT2050: basis for GHG projections, emissions baseline

Drivers of change

POPULATION and INCOME

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Annual increments (millions)

Total population (billions)

Population growth to continue

High variant

low variant

Urbanization to accelerate

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

bill

ion

pe

op

le

Rural

Urban

Consumption(kcal/pc) and GDP p.c. (62 Developing Countries)

Impacts on

FOOD AVAILABILITY

& PRODUCTION

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

World Developed Developing

148

63

255

60

24

77

Perc

en

t Past and projected increase in food

production

1961/63-2005/07

2005/07-2050

Impacts on

Resource use: Land, Water, Yields,

GHG emissions

Is there enough cropland and enough yield potential?

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Sub-Saharan Africa

Latin America

East Asia South Asia Near East/North

Africa

Developed & transition

Mil

lio

n h

a

Cropland potential and actual use 2005/07, 2050 and 2080

Total Potential Actual land in use 2005/07 2050 2080

9

20

40

9

13

8

7

8

78

72

53

83

World

Developing

Latin America

South Asia

Sources of growth (%): 2005/07-2050 Cropland Cropping intensity Yields

Is there enough water?

What does agriculture contribute to GHG emissions?

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

6,000,000

6,500,000

7,000,000

19

61

19

65

19

69

19

73

19

77

19

81

19

85

19

89

19

93

19

97

20

01

20

05

20

09

20

13

20

17

20

21

20

25

20

29

20

33

20

37

20

41

20

45

20

49

Gig

a g

CO

2 e

q

GHG baseline, World: continuing a past trend vs actual projections to 2050

Agriculture total, no Energy, no Savanna burning 1961-2050

Agriculture total, no Energy, no Savanna burning 1961-2011

Linear (Agriculture total, no Energy, no Savanna burning 1961-2011)

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000 1

96

1

19

65

19

69

19

73

19

77

19

81

19

85

19

89

19

93

19

97

20

01

20

05

20

09

20

13

20

17

20

21

20

25

20

29

20

33

20

37

20

41

20

45

20

49

Gig

a g

CO

2 e

qu

GHG baseline, “B-country”: continuing a past trend vs actual

projections to 2050

Emissions, Total Agriculture, CO2 equ AT2050

Emissions, Total Agriculture, CO2 equ FAOSTAT

Linear trend

2. Basis for food security

assessments under Climate Change

Percentage change in world food (cereal) prices in relation to changes in temperatures

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1 2 3 4 5

Temperature 0 C

Fo

od

pri

ces

Parry et al.

Tsigas et al.

Adams et al.

Darwin

Reilly et al.

Fischer et al.

Source: IPCC, AR4

How do we model the impacts of Climate Change on agriculture and food security?

CC and Food Security: The Stability Dimension

How we are going to estimate impacts of extreme weather events?

AEZ G

CM

s/R

CP

Productivity, short and long-term

Marginal land, short and long term

Suitability, short term and long-term

Mapping CC

GC

M v

aria

ble

s

Extreme weather events

Droughts, Floods

Hurricanes, Typhoons, Tornados

Frequency, duration, severity

Competitive storage model

GC

Ms/

RC

P

Price volatility Volatility and production level effects

Stocks, buffer needs

Hunger, famine undernourishment

1. Changing Climate

2. Changing agro-ecology

3. Changing agro-economy

Dec 2016 June 2016 June 2015

How we are going to estimate impacts of

Climate Change

AEZ G

CM

s/R

CP

Productivity

Cropland and pasture suitability

Mapping potential to actual yields/area

Mapping CC

GC

M v

aria

ble

s Precipitation

Temperature

Agro-edaphic

CO2

Many more

@2050

GC

Ms/

RC

P

Actual production, yields

Incomes, consumption

Hunger, undernourishment

1. Changing Climate

2. Changing agro-ecology

3. Changing agro-economy

Dec 2015 June 2015 June 2014

A. Data and process for the GHG baseline 1. FAO GHG estimates and projections are based on official

statistics/data/information from member countries 2. FAO GHG estimates and projections are based on very detailed

commodity breakdowns, land use, yields, and resource use 3. Statistics collected and projections undertaken are independent

of the need to produce a GHG baseline. B. Results 1. Global food production and demand will continue to rise, albeit

at a slower pace (+60% by 2050); GHG to rise slower, saturation. 2. Ambition to be measured against trend growth? What is the

appropriate counterfactual? C. Climate Change and Food Security assessments Climate change affects all dimensions of food security:

• Access and utilization: access to improve with economic growth • Availability: no global, only local challenges • Stability: the most severe challenge of CC on FS, coping with extreme

weather events needs early policy action & decisions, need to gauge effects

Overview and Summary

THANKS