Family background and young adults’ housing outcomes, 1971-2011

Rory Coulter (rcc46@cam.ac.uk)

Housing Studies Association conference, University of York, 09/04/15

Background I

1. Changing tenure patterns (households)

Source: Survey of English Housing, English Housing Survey

Background II

1. Changing tenure patterns (households)

2. Delayed and increasingly assisted home-ownership transitions (individuals)

3. New patterns of living arrangements• Boomerang children, parental safety nets, doubling up or

sharing

4. Stability of ownership preferences

Background III

Key debate concerns impact on inequality

Fears that strengthening intergenerational continuities pose a threat to social mobility

Two dimensions important for assessing this…

1. How absolute chances of particular housing outcomes/pathways vary by cohort & background

2. How relative chances of particular housing outcomes/pathways vary by cohort & background

Data

Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (ONS LS), 1971-2011

Linked census records for 1% sample of the English and Welsh population, refreshed at each census

• Pros: (1) sample size, (2) timeframe covered, (3) good linkage rates

• Cons: (1) decennial observations, (2) linkage rates lower for young adults

Sample

Children aged 12-14 at 1971-2001 censuses who are:• Resident in a private household with 1 or 2 parents• Linked at the t+1 and t+2 census

Cohort Born Tracked N cases

1. Baby Boomers 1956-1959 1971, 1981, 1991 16642

2. Sixties Children 1966-1969 1981, 1991, 2001 16502

3. Generation X 1976-1979 1991, 2001, 2011 11732

4. Thatcher’s Children* 1986-1989 2001, 2011 15289

Dependent variable

Derived from comparing tenure and living arrangements (relationship to HOH/HRP)

Tenure Living arrangements

Self/partner HOH/HRP

Child of HOH/HRP

Other relation to HOH/HRP

Owner Independent owner Not independent: Lives with parent

Not independent: Other

Social tenant Independent s.tenant

Private tenant Independent p.tenant

Results (1): Outcome trends (men)

Source: ONS LS (own calculations)

Results (1): Outcome trends (women)

Source: ONS LS (own calculations)

Results (2): Parental class

Source: ONS LS (own calculations)

% parents with routine NS-SEC

BB (‘71) 49.36

SC (‘81) 32.88

GX (‘91) 29.93

Results (2): Parental tenure (SRS)

Source: ONS LS (own calculations)

% parents in SRS

BB (‘71) 40.99

SC (‘81) 30.24

GX (‘91) 17.53

Results (3): Logistic regression models

Source: ONS LS (own calculations)

Source: ONS LS (own calculations)

N cases 12378

McF’s r2 0.161

Extra controls included for region and inter-censal migration (not shown)

Results (3): Logistic regression models

Source: ONS LS (own calculations)

Source: ONS LS (own calculations)

N cases 32059

McF’s r2 0.193

Extra controls included for region and inter-censal migration (not shown)

(Tentative) conclusions

1. Individual level longitudinal analysis is crucial– Both tenure and living arrangements matter for

understanding housing trajectories

2. Absolute odds of housing outcomes vary by gender and have changed considerably over time

– Increase in shared living a key trend– Patterns matter for cohort wealth imbalances

3. Relative odds of housing outcomes vary by family background and cohort

Acknowledgements

This research is supported by an Economic and Social Research Council Future Research Leaders award [ES/L0094981/1]. Additional financial support has been provided by the Isaac Newton Trust.

The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme under project ES/K000365/1. I bear sole responsibility for all analyses and interpretations of the data.

Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

The derivation of 1971 and 1981 NS-SEC & Goldthorpe classes is provided in Bukodi and Neuburger (2009) “Data Note. Job and occupational histories for the NSHD 1946 Birth Cohort” as part of the ESRC Gender Network Grant, Project 1 ‘Changing occupational careers of men and women’, Reference: RES-225-25-2001.

The code was kindly provided by Erzsebet Bukodi and adapted for use in the LS by Franz Buscha and Patrick Sturgis as part of the ESRC grant ‘Inter-cohort Trends in Intergenerational Mobility in England and Wales: income, status, and class (InTIME)’ [ES/K003259/1].

Acknowledgements