Family Background and University Success - … Crawford, Lorraine Dearden, John Micklewright and...
Transcript of Family Background and University Success - … Crawford, Lorraine Dearden, John Micklewright and...
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Claire Crawford, Lorraine Dearden, John Micklewright and Anna Vignoles
Family Background and University Success
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Setting the scene: is university worth it for everyone? Anna Vignoles
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The book
• How can we improve access to and success in HE for poorer students?
‒ How much focus should there be on access?
‒ What happens to these students once in HE?
‒ What happens after they leave?
• What drives the socio-economic differences in outcomes at each stage?
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The value of higher education
• If we are concerned about access, we first have to ask – is going to university worth it?
• Broadly yes . . . average graduate earnings have remained high despite expansion of student numbers
• But variation in graduate outcomes has increased, with differences by institution, subject and degree class increasingly important
• Suggests we need to worry about SES differences in these outcomes too
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The evidence
• Recent evidence for England funded by the Nuffield Foundation:
‒ Graduates vs. non-graduates:
‒ Britton, J., N. Shephard and A. Vignoles (2015), Comparing sample survey measures of English earnings of graduates with administrative data during the Great Recession, IFS Working Paper W15/28.
‒ Differences by institution and subject:
‒ Britton, J., L. Dearden, N. Shephard and A. Vignoles (2016), How English domiciled graduate earnings vary with gender, institution attended, subject and socio-economic background, IFS Working Paper W16/06.
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Graduates vs. non-graduates
• Graduates are much more likely to be in work, and earn considerably more, on average, than non-graduates
• Non-graduates twice as likely as graduates to have no earnings 10 years on
‒ 30% vs. 15% for the cohort starting their studies in 1999, observed in 2011/12
• Male graduate to non-graduate pay gap: £8,000 per year
• Female graduate to non-graduate pay gap: £9,000 per year
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Variation in graduate earnings
• Big differences in earnings by institution and subject
• Largely but not entirely driven by differences in entry requirements
• Also variation by degree class
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Differences by subject (females)
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
Source: Figure 5 of Britton et al. (2016)
Family Background and University Success
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Differences by institution (males)
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
Source: Figure 5 of Britton et al. (2016)
Family Background and University Success
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Implications
• A degree offers a pathway to relatively high earnings for many – but not all
• Ensuring equal access to HE clearly first order priority
• But access to institutions and subjects with higher earnings also important
• As is ensuring low and high SES students achieve similar degree classes
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How large are the SES gaps in HE participation and what drives them? Lorraine Dearden
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HE participation overall and at high status institutions, by socio-economic background
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Lowest SES quintile group
2nd 3rd 4th Highest SES quintile group
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%
% of state school pupils going to university at age 18/19
HE participation overall Participation at a high status institution
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Why are these gaps so large?
• One factor which has been a big concern in recent years is the cost of university – and in particular the amount of fees charged
• Recent reforms have increased the cap on annual tuition fees from £1,000 (in the early 2000s) to £3,000, and now to £9,000 (in 2011-12)
• What has happened to the socio-economic gaps in participation over this period?
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HE participation rates over time, by a measure of local area disadvantage
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% of young people going to university at age 18/19
Difference (least-most) Q1 (most deprived) Q2
Q3 Q4 Q5 (least deprived)
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Source: Figure 4.3 of Crawford et al. (2017)
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Participation gaps have been falling while tuition fees have been rising – why?
• Answer is because students can borrow money to cover their fees whilst at university (and a contribution towards living costs) and do not have to pay it back until they are in work with reasonable income
‒ No upfront fees for students from low income families
‒ And those who go on to be low income graduates are relatively protected from the costs of university (insurance)
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If not funding, what else?
• Suggests funding is not a major part of the reason why poorer students are less likely to go to university than richer students – at least among young HE entrants
‒ Not least because there were large gaps even when HE was “free”
• What else could explain the gaps?
• Prior attainment potentially a big part of the story
‒ If SES differences in HE participation were entirely explained by attainment earlier in the school system, then policy focus must be on improving these earlier outcomes amongst low SES children
‒ But if they are only part of the explanation then policy must have a wider focus – attainment plus . . .
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How important is attainment at different ages in explaining SES gaps in HE participation?
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raw age 7 age 11 age 16 age 18
%
Difference in participation at age 18/19 between 20% richest and 20% poorest state school students
HE participation overall
Participation at a high status institutions (amongst participants)
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Source: Figure 5.1 of Crawford et al. (2017)
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Prior attainment is vital – but not the whole story for high status institutions
• Attainment at end of secondary school can explain the whole gap in HE access between richest and poorest 20% of state school students
• But not quite the whole gap in terms of entry to high status institutions amongst those who go to HE
‒ Still small SES differences in applications/offers/entry to these unis
• Should we care about these gaps?
‒ Yes, to the extent that – as we saw earlier – students from these institutions go on to earn more, on average, in labour market
• What other gaps might there be that we should worry about?
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Socio-economic gaps in university outcomes Claire Crawford
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Is getting more poor pupils to HE enough?
• Large socio-economic gaps in university access
• But returns accrue to those who complete their degrees, not those who attend – and are higher for those with the best degree classes
• Are there further socio-economic differences in these outcomes?
• What about beyond graduation? Do richer and poorer students benefit equally from higher education?
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% of students who drop-out, complete degree and graduate with 1st or 2:1, by SES percentile
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%
percentile of SES distribution (1=least deprived; 100=most deprived)
drop out within 2 years complete degree within 5 years graduate with first or 2:1
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Presentation title to go here
Source: Figure 5.1 of Crawford et al. (2017)
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What explains SES gaps in HE outcomes?
3.6ppts
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22.9ppts
4.3ppts
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5.5ppts
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-2.3ppts
-3.4ppts
-3.7ppts
-8.4ppts
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
high status institutions only
same courses
pre-university controls
raw differences
percentage point difference
drop out within 2 years complete degree within 5 years graduate with first or 2:1
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Family Background and University Success
Source: Figure 7.1 of Crawford et al. (2017)
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Further SES differences in outcomes at uni
• Those from lower socio-economic backgrounds are more likely to drop out, less likely to complete their degree, and less likely to get a 1st or 2:1
• True even comparing students from different SES backgrounds:
‒ With the same attainment and other characteristics on entry to HE
‒ On the same courses (same subject at same institution)
‒ At high status institutions
• Suggests SES gaps in university access understate gaps amongst cohort as a whole in terms of degree acquisition and degree class
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Is HE a route to social mobility?
• Have shown that those from low SES backgrounds are less likely to go to university, but also that they are:
‒ Less likely to complete their degrees
‒ Less likely to attend high status institutions
‒ Less likely to graduate with a 1st or 2:1
• For all these reasons, we would expect university entrants from low SES backgrounds to earn less than those from high SES backgrounds
• And this is exactly what we see . . .
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Earnings distributions for graduates from high and lower income households
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Source: Figure 18 from Britton et al. (2016)
• Also true (using different data) amongst those with similar experiences (i.e. same other characteristics and attainment on entry to HE; who went to same institution, studied same subject, got same degree class)
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Does this mean low SES students shouldn’t go to university?
• Comparing otherwise identical graduates, those from higher socio-economic backgrounds earn more, on average
• But graduates from low income families still earn more, on average, than those who don’t go to university
‒ And some work suggests that poor graduates earn more relative to poor non-graduates than rich graduates do compared to rich non-graduates
• University still seems to offer an average earnings boost, so don’t want lower earnings for poor graduates to deter them from going
• But clearly more work is required to reduce the SES gaps at every stage in order for HE to be a true ‘engine of social mobility’
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Policy implications John Micklewright
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University access
• Prior attainment is key – especially at age 16
‒ Not enough to raise aspirations, offer information/financial assistance
• But policies to improve achievement of lower SES groups have had mixed success (e.g. spending on the early years, school reforms)
‒ No silver bullet; more evidence required
• Prior attainment also important for attendance at high status institutions
‒ Including GCSE and A-level subject choice
• But applications/offers/acceptances differ slightly by socio-economic status conditional on attainment, so more work to do here
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University access
• Might contextualised admissions help?
• Prior achievement still key barrier – but should be encouraged
‒ e.g. by omitting these admissions from league tables
• Contextualising on basis of school characteristics may be good way to start
‒ On average, amongst pupils with same attainment, those from lower performing schools do better at uni than those from higher performing schools
• If contextualising based on family or neighbourhood characteristics, universities must ensure they support students on arrival
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University access
• What is clear is that the recent changes to the funding system have not widened socio-economic gaps (at least for young f/t students)
‒ If anything, SES gaps have fallen rather than risen over this period
• But changes whose implications we cannot yet observe may change this
‒ e.g. replacement of maintenance grants with loans, freezing of income threshold, raising of tuition fees again via TEF
• Definitely some things we could be doing better
‒ Universities should clarify bursary/fee support ex-ante
‒ Government should not alter loan terms ex-post
‒ Maintenance support may require more thought
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Degree outcomes
• There is a clear need for intervention beyond university access too
• Prior achievement again important, but socio-economic gaps in degree completion and class remain amongst students who are similar on entry
• Again lack of robust evidence about ‘what works’ to promote retention and progression, but sense of ‘belonging’ seems important, and interventions at key points (e.g. induction) seem most successful
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Later success
• And the challenges continue beyond university as well
• Students who look similar when they leave undergraduate studies have different outcomes depending on their socio-economic background
• Recent announcement of postgraduate loan scheme needs to be evaluated – will students really want to take on more debt?
• Could more be done by university careers services?
• Efforts by some large employers to use ‘blind’ admissions and to monitor the socio-economic background of their employees
‒ But more needs to be done systematically
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Wrapping up
• Narrowing SES gaps in university access and outcomes a big challenge
• Government has set ambitious targets: to double the % of students from disadvantaged backgrounds progressing to HE by 2020 (vs. 2009)
• But also important to ensure that students can access the subjects and institutions that generate high returns (if they wish), and that they can perform well once there – getting through the door is not enough
• Outcomes beyond graduation also important
• Finally worth remembering that higher SES students will not be standing still while all this is happening, so no guarantee that gaps will close
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