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Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment & Poppy Growers Tasmania
Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
January 2013
Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
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Macquarie Franklin Administration Office 112 Wright Street | East Devonport | Tasmania | 7310
Phone: 03 6427 5300 | Fax: 03 6427 0876 | Email: [email protected] Web: www.macquariefranklin.com.au
Report author: Thom Goodwin, Lance Davey & Michael Lehman
An appropriate citation for this report is:
Macquarie Franklin, 2013, Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies in Tasmania, Devonport TAS
Document status: DRAFT
Date Status /Issue number Reviewed by Authorised by Transmission method
This report has been prepared in accordance with the scope of services described in the contract or agreement between Macquarie Franklin and the Client. Any findings, conclusions or recommendations only apply to the aforementioned circumstances and no greater reliance should be assumed or drawn by the Client. Furthermore, the report has been prepared solely for use by the Client and Macquarie Franklin accepts no responsibility for its use by other parties.
Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
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Contents 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 3
2 Potential Poppy Area ...................................................................................................................... 4
3 Company interviews ....................................................................................................................... 7
4 Farm survey ..................................................................................................................................... 9
4.1 Questionnaire, survey sample and response rate .................................................................. 9
4.2 Survey Results ....................................................................................................................... 12
5 Current Poppy Grower Survey Results .......................................................................................... 15
5.1 Area of poppies grown .......................................................................................................... 15
5.2 Reasons for growing less than maximum annual poppy area .............................................. 17
5.3 Factors that would encourage farmers to grow more poppies ............................................ 19
6 Non-Poppy Grower Survey Results ............................................................................................... 21
6.1 Reasons farmers do not grow poppies ................................................................................. 21
6.2 Factors that would encourage farmers to grow more poppies ............................................ 22
7 New Irrigation Schemes ................................................................................................................ 24
Appendix A – Regional breakdown of revisions made to TIA and DPIPWE mapping ........................... 25
Appendix B – Revised Annual Potential Poppy Area ............................................................................ 26
Appendix C – Current grower survey responses ................................................................................... 27
Appendix D – Non-grower survey responses ........................................................................................ 30
Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
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Executive summary
The Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture (TIA) and the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment (DPIPWE) previously identified a total area of 349,000 hectares as potentially suitable for growing poppies in Tasmania. Based on this they concluded that around 60,000 hectares of poppies could be grown in Tasmania on an annual basis. This report revisits at the TIA and DPIPWE land use mapping work, and presents the results of a survey of poppy company field staff and farmers to obtain a better understanding of the factors that might limit the expansion of total poppy area in Tasmania - beyond the 30,000 hectares being grown this year.
Revised Land Use Mapping
After adjusting for a range of factors the potentially suitable poppy growing area identified by TIA/DPIPWE was revised down to 251,000 hectares – with the annual potential area revised from 65,000 hectares to around 45,000 hectares. In the current 2012-13 season around 30,000 hectares of poppies are being grown throughout the state. This represents over 60% of the 45,000 hectares of practical annual potential area identified by the revised land use mapping.
Company Interviews
Prior to undertaking farmer interviews, poppy company staff for Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK) and Tasmanian Alkaloids (TA) were interviewed to gain a better understanding of issues which they believe might limit the area of poppies grown in the state. Field officers were also asked to provide their understanding of the main reason why some previous growers no longer grew poppies. A frequent comment made by field officers was that most farmers who could potentially grow poppies had in fact grown at some point in the past. The main reasons given as to why individual farms were no longer growing poppies was the unsuitability of land in some areas, specialised dairy, specialised beef and part-time farmers not interested in cropping, as well as land used for other crops over an extended period – e.g. land leased to BRA for pyrethrum.
Farm Survey
Two farm surveys were designed - one for current poppy growers and the other for non-poppy growers (past growers & farmers who have never grown poppies). Farmers were asked to indicate what they considered to be their potential poppy ground if there were no constraints other than soil type, and what they could potentially grow on an annual basis – as well as the area devoted to other land uses during 2012-13. Non-poppy growers, and current poppy growers that were not growing at their suggested annual potential area, were asked to nominate the main reason they are not growing (more) poppies and what it would take to get them to grow (more) poppies. The survey results suggest that poppy growers are generally cropping farms, whereas non-poppy growers tend to be mainly grazing farms. A large proportion of non-poppy growers, for example,
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have less than 20% of their total farm area under crop. On the other hand almost 80% of them have over 80% of their total area under pasture.
Current Poppy Grower Survey Results
Around 70% of current poppy growers surveyed reported growing less poppies in 2012-13 than their suggested annual potential area. Calculations based on grower estimates of their actual area versus their estimate of potential annual sustainable area suggest it may be possible to grow another 15,600 hectares on current poppy grower farms. Returns being too low and a lack of irrigation capacity accounted for over 80% of the ‘missing area’. Unsurprisingly, increased price was frequently nominated as a factor that would encourage more poppy production. However, this response needs to be seen in the context of other reported factors such as access to irrigation infrastructure, more reliability and increased yield.
Non-Poppy Grower Survey Results
92% of the 51 non-growers interviewed said they had grown poppies in the past. This is in line with the field officers suggestion that most people who could grow poppies had in fact grown at some stage. As is the case for current poppy growers, non-growers listed ‘returns too low’ as a main reason for not growing and this accounted for 35% of the ‘missing area’ on the survey farms. ‘Other enterprises’ was the second most important reason and this was generally associated with dairy farming. Higher price was listed as a major factor that would encourage non-growers to grow, followed by more reliable yield (and better yield) and prices falling for other enterprises – these are all factors associated with the relative profitability of poppies and other enterprises. Ten of the 56 growers indicated that there was nothing that would encourage them to grow poppies – these tended to be lifestyle or retired farmers. Irrigation constraints (irrigation infrastructure, water availability) did not appear to play a big role in the decision not to grow poppies among non-poppy growers.
Impact of New Irrigation Schemes
The anticipated increase in poppy area from Tasmanian Irrigation schemes could increase the current 30,000 hectares of poppies grown in Tasmania to around 36,000 hectares. The largest expansions in poppy area associated with these irrigation schemes is expected to occur in the Southern and Northern Midlands region This is 10,000 hectares short of the 46,000 hectares identified as a practical maximum annual area by the revised land use mapping – but does constitute a significant potential increase.
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1 Introduction
The Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture (TIA) and the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water
and Environment (DPIPWE) has previously identified a total area of 349,000 hectares as potentially
suitable for growing poppies in Tasmania1. Based on this they concluded that around 60,000
hectares of poppies could be grown in Tasmania on an annual basis.
The approach used by TIA and DPIPWE was based on land capability, using 1-4 class land as well as
setting upper bounds for annual rainfall and elevation. A number of scenarios were highlighted
where the annual 60,000 hectares area could potentially increase. For instance, the report found
that raising the altitude limit from 300 m to 400 m would increase the annual area to around 65,000
hectares, mainly due to the inclusion of additional land in the Bothwell and Oatlands areas.
The desktop land capability approach taken by TIA and DPIPWE did not consider socio-economic
factors such as the value of alternative land uses and farmer attitudes to growing poppies. As such
their estimate was intended to be a theoretical annual potential area.
This report revisits the TIA and DPIPWE land use mapping work, and presents the results of a survey
of poppy company field staff and farmers to obtain a better understanding of the factors that might
limit the expansion of total poppy area in Tasmania - beyond the 30,000 hectares being grown this
year. The farmer survey included current poppy growers and farmers not currently growing poppies
(but who potentially could).
This report also provides an analysis of the additional area of poppies that might be grown on the
basis of additional irrigation water from new Tasmanian Irrigation schemes.
1 Orr, R. Simmul, P. & Webb M. 2011 Potential Land Area Suitable for Poppy Production in Tasmania
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2 Potential Poppy Area
The Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture (TIA) and the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water
and Environment (DPIPWE) has previously identified a total area of 349,000 hectares as potentially
suitable for growing poppies in Tasmania1.
In fact, the evaluation of potential land area suitable for poppy production in Tasmania undertaken
by TIA and DPIPWE considered three main alternatives:
Map 1 –potential poppy area of 349,000 hectares and an annual sustainable area of 60,000
hectares
Map 2 –potential poppy area of 378,000 hectares and an annual sustainable area of 65,000
hectares
Map 3 –potential poppy area of 410,000 hectares and an annual sustainable area of 71,000
hectares
All three maps were limited to Class 1 to Class 4 land.
Map 1 was restricted to land with an elevation of less than or equal to 300 m.
Map 3 removed the 1,250 mm rainfall limit applied for Maps 1 & 2.
Actual poppy production in Tasmania includes significant areas of poppies grown at an elevation of
greater than 300 m, particularly around the Bothwell and Oatlands areas. There is a limited area of
poppies grown where rainfall is greater than 1,250 mm because of issues associated with planting on
time and rainfall at harvesting.
As a result, Map 2 (with a potential annual area of 65,000 hectares) was adopted as the base
situation from the TIA/DPIPWE study. While we believe that this is a reasonable theoretical potential
there are a number factors which are likely to limit the practical annual potential area.
For this report the base TIA/DPIPWE area was adjusted by deducting some further areas and by
adding some Class 5 area around Tunbridge. Annual rainfall being less than 550 mm is one of the
reasons that Tunbridge land is classified as Class 5. Clearly with irrigation this is not a limiting factor
and in fact a significant area of poppies is grown in this location.
Areas subtracted from the TIA/DPIPWE base potential area were:
Plantation on private land.
Dairy farms.
East Coast / Fingal Valley (top end) – Glaxo Smith Kline and Tas Alkaloids field officers
reported that this region frequently suffered from adverse weather events during the
harvest period.
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East & West Tamar – the field officers reported that while the soil type might be Class 4 the
combination of soil type and weather in these regions mean that paddocks were frequently
too wet to plant poppies on time.
Parkham / Dairy Plains – the field officers reported that the combination of soil type and
weather in these regions mean that paddocks were frequently too wet to plant poppies on
time.
Redpa / Marawah – field officers reported that this region frequently suffered from adverse
weather events during the harvest period.
South of Hobart – small areas in a distant location.
While some of the excluded areas listed have grown poppies in the past and currently do have some
crops, by and large the major companies’ experience is that the areas are too unreliable or too
remote for servicing to include in a practical annual estimate.
In addition, the TIA/DPIPWE estimate allowed an 80% useable on-farm land factor to arrive at its
65,000 hectare annual potential area – this allows a 20% deduction for land use inefficiencies such
as tracks, roadways, fence-lines, waterways, water storages, random trees, hollows and rocky
patches.
In our opinion this factor is too low for areas other than the intensive cropping areas of the North
West and parts of the North East. The more extensive areas of the state tend to concentrate on
larger paddocks and exclusively use centre pivot irrigators which do not always fit the croppable
area. For these reasons regional adjustments to the useable on-farm land factor were made as
follows:
80% in the North West (unchanged)
70% in the North East
60% in the remainder of the state
After the adjustments outlined above, the 378,000 hectares potential area identified by TIA and
DPIPWE in Map 2 was reduced to a ‘practical potential area’ of 251,000 hectares – with the ‘annual
potential area’ reduced from 65,000 hectares to around 45,000 hectares.
The TIA/DPIPWE calculated their annual sustainable area of 65,000 hectares using a rotation factor
based on land classification (Table 1). The same rotation factor has been used in this project to
determine the revised annual potential area. Obviously, with a tighter rotation on land classes 3, 4
and 5 the potential annual area could be considerably expanded.
Table 1: Rotation factor associated with different land classes
Land Class Rotation
1-2 1 in 3 years
3 1 in 4 years
4 1 in 6 years
5 1 in 6 years
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A detailed regional breakdown of the factors used to revise the TIA/DPIPWE mapping is provided in
Appendix A and a map of the revised practical potential area is provided in Appendix B.
In the current 2012-13 season around 30,000 hectares of poppies are being grown throughout the
state. This area represents over 60% of the 45,000 hectares of the practical annual potential area
identified by the revised land use mapping (Table 2).
Table 2: Potential annual poppy area and actual area of poppies grown
Total Potential
Area
Potential Annual
Area
Actual area 2012-13
ha ha ha % of annual
potential
North West 7,400 1,800 1,250 69%
Central NW 27,200 6,100 4,190 69%
Central North 35,600 6,700 3,090 46%
N. Midlands 108,900 18,600 14,400 77%
North East 25,200 4,600 1,150 25%
South 46,800 7,800 4,540 58%
TOTAL 251,100 45,600 28,620 63%
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3 Company interviews
Prior to undertaking farmer interviews, poppy company staff for Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK) and
Tasmanian Alkaloids (TA) were interviewed to gain a better understanding of issues which they
believed might limit the area of poppies grown in the state. To some extent their responses were
used in determining the revised 45,000 hectare annual potential area outlined in Section 2.
Interviews were held with management (Rick Rockliff (TA) and Rohan Kile(GSK)) and a number of
field officers.
Prior to the field officer interviews each company provided a list of current poppy growers for the
2012-13 season, as well as comprehensive lists of farmers who that have grown poppies in the past.
A list of farmers who had never grown poppies in the past was also supplied by DPIPWE and added
to by field officers. The list from DPIPWE did not cover all regions and many of the growers on the
list were in fact found to be either current or past growers.
The list of ‘previous growers’ included a large number of people who had sold up, retired, were
deceased or were in fact growing for one of the other companies. As far as possible these lists were
‘cleaned up’ prior to the random selection of famers for interview (Section 4).
As well as discussing general factors limiting the area of poppies grown in each region the field
officers were asked to provide their understanding of the main reason individual farms on the non-
poppy grower lists no longer grew poppies. The range of factors discussed and their frequency of
occurrence are displayed in Figure 1.
A common comment was that they believed that most farmers who could potentially grow poppies
had in fact grown at some point in the past. The main reasons for no longer growing were generally
as follows:
Land not suitable – either the farmer and/or the company had decided not to continue.
Dairy farmers – with larger herds, dairy farmers have tended to become more specialised
over time and few grow poppies any more. A reduction in milk price might change this to
some extent.
Part-time farmers – not interested in cropping or may grow on an occasional basis.
Grazing – some beef/sheep farmers just not interested in cropping.
Leased to BRA – land taken out of cropping for an extended period for growing pyrethrum.
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Figure 1: Main reasons farmers stopped growing poppies, suggested by company field officers
0%
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50%
Shar
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4 Farm survey
4.1 Questionnaire, survey sample and response rate Two questionnaires were developed following the company interviews and refinement of
the land use mapping:
o One was designed to collect information from farms currently growing poppies
o A further questionnaire was designed to collect information from non-poppy
growers (farmers who have grown poppies in the past and farmers who have never grown
poppies).
Survey questions asked farmers to indicate what they considered to be their potential poppy
ground if there were no constraints other than soil type, and then what they could
potentially grow on an annual basis.
Non-poppy growers, and current poppy growers who were not growing at their suggested
annual potential area, were asked to nominate the main reason they are not growing (more)
poppies and what it would take to get them to grow (more) poppies.
The survey was based on two random samples:
o A sample of current poppy growers for the 2012-13 season drawn from lists
provided by the poppy companies (GSK & TA).
o A sample of non-poppy growers drawn from comprehensive lists of farmers who
don’t currently grow poppies but have grown poppies in the past, as well as a list of
farmers who have never grown poppies, supplied by DPIPWE and added to by field
officers.
Table 3 outlines the effect of ‘cleaning up’ the non-grower list, as well as the sample size and survey
response rate for both the current poppy growers and non- growers.
Table 3: Random sampling from list ‘populations’ of current and non-growers
Current-growers Non-growers
Lists supplied by poppy companies & DPIPWE 835 1,516
After ‘clean-up & removal of duplication 835 707
Calls made from random samples 141 180
Responses 94 56
Adjustments based on responses + 6 'non-growers' - 6 still growing
- 1 non-grower + 1 'current grower'
- 1 invalid response
Total sample size 98 (17% of list) 51 (7% of list)* *Of the 180 calls made from the non-grower list: 6 were current growers; 6 were no longer farming; 1 was deceased; and
21 were wrong numbers. Based on this number of invalid non-growers and the fact that the sample was random, it is likely
that the ‘true’ list of non-growers would contain around 570 farms – suggesting a 9% sample.
Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
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Figure 2 and Figure 3 show the percentage of sample farms versus the total ‘population’ for both
growers and non-growers, by region. The results indicate that the farms surveyed are representative
of the underlying population lists from which the random samples were drawn.
Figure 2: Comparison of current growers surveyed with current grower list
Figure 3: Comparison of non-growers surveyed with non-grower list
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
North West Central NW CentralNorth
NorthernMidlands
North East South
Shar
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Current grower sample Current grower list
0%
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50%
North West Central NW CentralNorth
NorthernMidlands
North East South
Shar
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Non grower Sample Non grower list
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On an area basis the response rate of the combined poppy grower and non-poppy grower surveys
represents 15% of the 45,600 potential annual area identified by the revised land use mapping
(Table 4).
Table 4: Share of the annual potential poppy area within the survey samples, by region
Zone
Potential annual
area*
Area surveyed
ha ha %
North West 1,800 280 16%
Central NW 6,100 2,080 34%
Central North 6,700 1,090 16%
N. Midlands 18,600 2,320 12%
North East 3,900 440 11%
South 7,800 690 9%
TOTAL 44,900 6,910 15% * See Section 2
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4.2 Survey Results
Participating farmers were asked to provide the following information for the 2012-13 season:
Total farm area.
Farmer estimate of total potential poppy land.
Farmer estimate of potential annual poppy area – with no constraints other than land
quality.
Area of poppies grown in 2012-13 (current growers only).
Area of other crops grown.
Number of other crops grown.
Area of pasture.
Table 5 and Table 6 present a summary of the survey results. Detailed survey results are contained in
Appendices C and D.
Table 5: Land use for current poppy growers
Average Minimum Maximum
(ha) (ha) (ha)
Total Farm Area 643 0 8,500
Potential Poppy Area 295 6 4,350
Annual Potential Poppy Area 59 5 500
Area of Poppies Grown in 2012-13 40 3 480
Area of Other Crops Grown 82 0 1,820
Area of Pasture 253 0 4,000
Table 6: Land use for non-poppy growers
Average Minimum Maximum
(ha) (ha) (ha)
Total Farm Area 396 6 8,000
Potential Poppy Area 115 4 900
Annual Potential Poppy Area 21 1 100
Area of Poppies Grown in 2012-13 - - -
Area of Other Crops Grown 11 0 200
Area of Pasture 329 0 8,000
Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
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Figure 4 and Figure 5 suggest that poppy growers are generally cropping farms, whereas non-poppy
growers are mainly grazing farms. A large proportion of non-poppy growers, for example, have less
than 20% of their total farm area under crop. On the other hand almost 80% of them have over 80%
of their total area under pasture.
Figure 4: Crop area as a share of total farm area – poppy growers versus non-growers
Figure 5: Pasture area as a share of total farm area – non-poppy growers
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
<20% 20-40% 41-60% 61-80% 81-100%
Shar
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Cropping as a share of total farm area
Poppy Growers Non poppy growers
0%
20%
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<20% 20-40% 41-60% 61-80% 81-100%
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Pasture as a share of total farm area
Poppy Growers Non poppy growers
Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
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Figure 6 shows the average rotation assumptions underlying the farmers’ estimates of annual
potential poppy area from their total potential poppy area - compared to those used to calculate the
revised theoretical area in Section 2.
In general terms the farmer estimates are similar to those outlined in Section 2. However, for the
North East and South, rotations appear to be somewhat tighter than suggested in the calculation of
the theoretical annual potential area (land class mapping).
Figure 6: Predicted and actual average poppy rotation length, by region
1 in 0 years
1 in 1 years
1 in 2 years
1 in 3 years
1 in 4 years
1 in 5 years
1 in 6 years
1 in 7 years
North WestCentral NW CentralNorth
NorthernMidlands
North East South
Land class mapping Survey results
Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
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5 Current Poppy Grower Survey Results
This section summarises the survey results for the 98 current poppy growers surveyed.
Because the actual number of farms surveyed in some regions was relatively small the figures
presented are for the state as a whole rather than for individual regions. Further detail is provided in
Appendix C.
5.1 Area of poppies grown 71% of current poppy growers surveyed reported growing less poppies in 2012-13 than their
suggested annual potential area.
o This group of farmers were asked further questions about the reason for growing a
smaller area – analysis provided in Section 5.2.
12% of current poppy growers surveyed reported growing their suggested annual potential
area in 2012-13.
17% of current poppy growers surveyed reported growing more than their suggested annual
potential area.
o Overwhelmingly these growers indicated that they would not grow poppies at all for
the next several years – this is how they manage their rotation.
Figure 7: Area of poppies grown relative to farmer estimate of annual potential area – share of growers
The area of poppies grown relative to farmer estimate of annual potential area is further elaborated
in Figure 8. It shows a large proportion of farm area growing less than the maximum annual
potential, a small proportion at the maximum, and a proportion growing up to 300% of the potential
annual area – these later farms are unlikely to grow in the next few years.
< annual potential
71%
= annual potential
12%
> annual potential
17%
Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
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Figure 8: Area of poppy production compared to maximum annual potential on current poppy grower farms
Around 30,000 hectares of poppies are being grown in Tasmania during the 2012-13 season. Figure 9
illustrates calculations undertaken which suggest that it may be possible to grow another 15,600
hectares on current poppy grower farms – based on grower estimates of actual area versus their
estimate of potential annual sustainable area. This does not include scope for additional area on
non-poppy grower farms.
Figure 9: An estimate of additional potential poppy area on current poppy grower farms
.
0%
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Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
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5.2 Reasons for growing less than maximum annual poppy area
The 68 current poppy growers (out of 98 surveyed) who grew a smaller area of poppies than their
indicated maximum annual potential were asked to indicate the main reason they are growing less
poppies than they could (see Figure 10).
Given they were asked for the main reason only – the total number of responses is 68. ‘Returns too
low’ and lack of irrigation capacity accounted for over 80% of the ‘missing area’. The most important
reasons nominated on a per hectare basis were:
‘Returns too low’ – this is a combination of yield and price and, for the North West in
particular, returns from other competing enterprises.
‘Irrigation capacity’ – this is a combination of water supply and/or irrigation infrastructure.
For some growers this limitation might be overcome with higher returns, and may be
addressed by new Tasmanian Irrigation schemes (See Section 7).
‘Other enterprises’ – other cropping enterprises compete for potential poppy area and if
returns are higher are given a higher priority. In some cases the other enterprises have
differing rotation lengths (eg 5 years), which makes it difficult to fit the maximum poppy
area at say a 3-year rotation. Other grazing enterprises such as dairying might also grow a
small area of poppies as part of a pasture renovation phase.
‘Couldn’t get enough contract’ – only 6 growers listed this as a reason and only relates to
around 5% of the ‘missing area’. Mostly associated with suitability of land and soils being too
wet to plant on time.
‘Lifestyle’ – again only 6 growers and around 2% of the ‘missing area’.
‘Other’ – 4 growers and around 1% of the ‘missing area’.
Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
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Figure 10: Proportion of potential annual poppy area not used for poppies this year – main reasons for current growers.
Table 7 provides further details in relation to the ‘missing area’. Because of the sample size there are
few growers represented in some of the regions.
Interestingly, the Central NW which accounts for around 15% of the total area in 2012-13 has a
combined 18 growers listing ‘returns too low’ and ‘other enterprises’ as the main reasons. In the
Central North and Northern Midlands which are growing around half of the total crop this year, a
large number of growers (12) listed ‘irrigation capacity’ as the main reason for not growing their
maximum area.
Table 7: Main reason current poppy growers gave for growing less than their maximum poppy area - by region and number of growers
North West
Central NW
Central North
Northern Midlands
North East
South
Returns too low 1 8 2 4 3 2
Irrigation capacity 0 4 7 5 0 4
Other enterprises 0 10 2 1 0 0
Couldn't get enough contract 0 3 1 2 0 0
Lifestyle 1 2 0 2 1 0
Other 0 1 0 2 0 1
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Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
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5.3 Factors that would encourage farmers to grow more poppies
Current poppy growers, who grew a smaller area of poppies than their maximum annual potential,
were asked to indicate what it would take to get them to grow more poppies. There was commonly
more than one reason given. The results are outlined in Figure 11 and Table 8 .
Unsurprisingly, increased price was frequently nominated as a factor that would encourage more
poppy production. However, this response needs to be seen in the context of other reported factors.
For instance, during the phone survey several farmers explained that with current price, yield, and
reliability it was often difficult to justify investing in irrigation infrastructure. So, in fact, price,
irrigation infrastructure, more reliability and yield are all related.
Figure 11: Factors that would encourage current poppy growers to grow more
Multiple responses were permitted so shares do not sum to 100% *More of better irrigation infrastructure **Access to more irrigation water ***Prices fall for other enterprise(s)
Higher price is a common factor across all regions (Table 8). Overall, irrigation infrastructure appears
to be a greater limiting factor than access to more water.
26
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wer
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14
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wer
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0%
10%
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Higherprice
Irrigninfr.*
Morereliability
Betteryield
Morewater**
Otherprices***
Nothing
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Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
20
Table 8: Factors that would encourage current poppy growers to grow more poppies - by region and number of growers.
North West
Central NW
Central North
Northern. Midlands
North East
South
Access to more water 0 1 1 2 0 1
Irrigation infrastructure 0 5 5 3 1 5
Higher price 1 13 4 5 3 1
Better yield 0 7 1 3 0 0
More reliability 0 8 3 2 0 1
Other enterprise(s) price 0 3 1 1 1 0
Nothing 1 8 1 5 1 1
Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
21
6 Non-Poppy Grower Survey Results
This section summarises the survey results for the 56 non- growers surveyed.
Because the actual number of farms surveyed in some regions was relatively small the figures
presented are for the state as a whole rather than for individual regions. Further detail is provided in
Appendix D.
6.1 Reasons farmers do not grow poppies Non-poppy growers were asked to indicate the main reason they are not growing the crop.
The non-grower list include farmers who have previously grown poppies as well others who had
never grown. Interestingly 92% of the 51 non-growers interviewed had in fact grown in the past. This
supports company field officer indications that most farmers in Tasmania who could grow poppies
have grown the crop at some stage.
So, apart from the possibility (probability) that the non-grower list is incomplete, additional area is
unlikely to come from attracting completely new growers. Rather it will come from increasing the
area on current farms and possibly enticing past growers ‘back to the fold’.
As is the case for current poppy growers, non-growers listed ‘returns too low’ as a main reason for
not growing and this accounted for 35% of the ‘missing area’ on the survey farms (Figure 12). ‘Other
enterprises’ was the second most important reason and this was generally associated with dairy
farming.
Farmers nominating lifestyle as a reason for not growing poppies were often older farmers who
previously ran cropping enterprises. These farmers had semi-retired, still owned their farm, but
found grazing enterprises easier to manage. The majority of these farmers were not interested in
cropping (even at higher prices).
Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
22
Figure 12: Proportion of potential annual poppy area not used for poppies – main reasons for non-growers.
6.2 Factors that would encourage farmers to grow more poppies As a follow up to the reasons they were not growing poppies, non-growers were asked to indicate
what it would take to get them to grow the crop. The results are shown in Figure 11. It should be
noted that many respondents indicated more than one factor so proportions add to greater than
100%.
As is the case for current poppy growers, higher price was listed as a major factor that would
encourage non-poppy growers to grow the crop, followed by more reliable yield (and better yield)
and prices falling for other enterprises – these are all factors associated with the relative profitability
of poppies and other enterprises.
Ten of the 56 growers indicated that there was nothing that would encourage them to grow poppies
– these tended to be lifestyle or retired farmers.
Irrigation constraints (irrigation infrastructure, water availability) do not appear to play a big role in
the decision not to grow poppies among non-poppy growers.
16
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Returns toolow
Otherenterprises
Lifestyle Couldn't geta contract
Irrigationcapacity
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Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
23
Figure 13: Factors that would encourage non-poppy growers to grow poppies
Multiple responses were permitted so shares do not sum to 100% *More of better irrigation infrastructure **Access to more irrigation water ***Prices fall for other enterprise(s)
30
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0%
10%
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30%
40%
50%
60%
Higherprice
Morereliability
Otherprices***
Nothing Irrigninfr.*
Betteryield
Morewater**
Shar
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Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
24
7 New Irrigation Schemes
Tasmanian Irrigation (TI) is in the process of greatly expanding irrigation potential throughout the
state. This is in addition to the recently completed Meander Scheme and its associated pipelines,
which is yet to reach its full potential.
Surveys undertaken as part of the socioeconomic assessment for these schemes suggest that
prospective irrigators combined are planning to grow an additional 6,445 hectares (Table 9). The
largest expansions in poppy area associated with these irrigation schemes are expected to occur in
the Southern and Northern Midlands regions.
The anticipated increase in poppy area from these schemes would increase the current 30,000
hectares of poppies grown in Tasmania to around 36,000 hectares. This is 10,000 hectares short of
the 46,000 hectares identified as a practical maximum annual area by the revised land use mapping
in Section 2 – but does constitute a significant potential increase.
Table 9: Planned increases in poppy area associated with new irrigation schemes
Additional irrigation area Poppies (ha) Other land uses (ha)
North West 490 2,920
Meander Valley 650 5,270
Central North 155 1,550
North East 940 4,075
Northern Midlands 1,450 4,075
Southern Midlands 2,510 4,385
South East 250 1,345
Total 6,445 23,620
Source: Macquarie Franklin analysis of Tasmanian Irrigation Socioeconomic Assessments.
Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
25
Appendix A – Regional breakdown of revisions made to TIA and DPIPWE mapping
Region Theoretical Potential
Poppy Area*
Adjustments
Less Dairy Less Private Plantations
Less Unsuitable
Area
Add Midlands Class 5
Less Unusable Farm Area
Revised Potential
Poppy Area
Practical Annual
Potential
North West 20,600 -6,500 -1,000 -3,900 0 -1,800 7,400 1,800
Central NW 39,400 -2,100 -3,200 -100 0 -6,800 27,200 6,100
Central North 83,600 -3,500 -4,000 -16,700 0 -23,800 35,600 6,700
N. Midlands 177,700 -700 -1,700 -15,900 22,200 -72,700 108,900 18,600
North East 58,600 -4,900 -3,500 -14,200 0 -10,800 25,200 4,600
South 91,400 -800 -800 -22,400 10,600 -31,200 46,800 7,800
TOTAL 471,300 -18,500 -14,200 -73,200 32,800 -147,100 251,100 45,600 *Map 2 as reported in: Orr, R. Simmul, P. & Webb M. 2011 Potential Land Area Suitable for Poppy Production in Tasmania Unsuitable areas include: East & West Tamar; Parkham / Dairy Plains; Redpa / Marawah; and South of Hobart. For a detailed explanation see Section 6. Unsuitable farm area factor: 20% North West and Central Northwest; 30% North East; and 40% all other regions.
Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
27
Appendix C – Current grower survey responses
Sample Size & Location
Number of growers on list
Regional share
Sample size
Regional share 6% 9%
845
3% 40% 16% 26%
10%
41 290 150 227 54 83
39 16 25 6 9
5% 34% 18% 27% 6%
State North West Central NW Central N N Midlands North East South
98 3
Average (SD) Average (SD) Average (SD) Average (SD) Average (SD) Average (SD) Average (SD)
Farm area Total farm area 737 (1,372) 260 (244) 227 (429) 368 (324) 1,297 (2,210) 334 (221) 1,458 (1,960)
Potential poppy area
Owned land capable of growing poppies 291 (498) 205 (172) 120 (168) 234 (223) 536 (888) 141 (126) 292 (227)
Leased land capable of growing poppies 41 (211) 0 (0) 57 (320) 3 (13) 18 (46) 100 (245) 0 (0)
Total potential poppy area 328 (530) 205 (172) 175 (343) 237 (224) 554 (886) 241 (330) 258 (181)
Maximum annual poppy area 64 (85) 46 (39) 43 (84) 49 (37) 91 (114) 55 (76) 69 (65)
Farm program this year
Poppies this year 44 (67) 33 (26) 23 (30) 36 (30) 72 (117) 34 (43) 40 (36)
Other crops 94 (211) 37 (38) 83 (288) 86 (92) 108 (195) 77 (98) 18 (31)
How many crops? 3 (18) 2 (2) 3 (2) 3 (3) 3 (2) 2 (1) 1 (1)
Pasture area 279 (575) 169 (193) 84 (155) 191 (202) 588 (1,033) 173 (168) 246 (285)
Is the area of poppies less than the Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
maximum that could be grown? 70% 67% 72% 75% 64% 67% 78%
Number (SD) Average (SD) Average (SD) Average (SD) Average (SD) Average (SD) Average (SD)
Maximum area less area this year 19 (45) 13 (16) 20 (56) 13 (23) 19 (40) 21 (34) 29 (53)
SouthState North West Central NW Central N N Midlands North East
Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
28
What is the main reason you are growing less poppies than you could?
Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Number %
(1) Irrigation capacity 20 20% 0 0% 4 14% 7 58% 5 31% 0 0% 4 57%
Lack of water 8 40% 0 0% 4 57% 3 60% 1 25%
Lack of irrigation infrastructure 9 45% 1 25% 3 43% 2 40% 3 75%
Type of irrigation infrastructure 5 25% 2 50% 2 29% 1 20% 0 0%
Other 1 5% 1 25% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Number %
(2) Returns too low 20 20% 1 50% 8 29% 2 17% 4 25% 3 75% 2 29%
Price too low 6 30% 0 0% 2 25% 0 0% 1 25% 2 67% 1 50%
Yields too low in this area 1 5% 0 0% 0 0% 1 50% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Too risky 8 40% 0 0% 3 38% 2 100% 2 50% 0 0% 1 50%
Not profitable enough 10 50% 1 100% 4 50% 0 0% 3 75% 1 33% 1 50%
Other 1 5% 0 0% 1 13% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Number %
(3) Suitable land occupied by other enterprises 13 13% 0 0% 10 36% 2 17% 1 6% 0 0% 0 0%
Other annual crops 10 77% 8 80% 1 50% 1 100%
Pyrethrum 1 8% 1 10% 0 0% 0 0%
Dairy 2 15% 1 10% 1 50% 0 0%
Beef/Sheep 6 46% 5 50% 1 50% 0 0%
Perennial horticulture 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Number %
(4) Couldn't get enough contract 7 7% 0 0% 3 11% 1 8% 2 13% 0 0% 0 0%
Didn't get in early enough 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Rotation 4 57% 3 100% 0 0% 1 50%
Other 3 43% 0 0% 1 100% 1 50%
Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Number %
(5) Lifestyle 6 6% 1 50% 2 7% 0 0% 2 13% 1 25% 0 0%
Not interested in cropping 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Semi-retired 3 50% 1 100% 1 50% 1 50% 0 0%
Land leased out 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Other 3 50% 0 0% 1 50% 1 50% 1 100%
Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Number %
(6) Other 4 4% 0 0% 1 4% 0 0% 2 13% 0 0% 1 14%
SouthState North West Central NW Central N N Midlands North East
Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
29
What would it take to get you to grow more poppies?
Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Number %
Access to more irrigation water 5 7% 0 0% 1 4% 1 8% 2 13% 0 0% 1 14%
More/better irrigation infrastructure 19 28% 0 0% 5 18% 5 42% 3 19% 1 25% 5 71%
Higher price 27 39% 1 50% 13 46% 4 33% 5 31% 3 75% 1 14%
Better yield 11 16% 0 0% 7 25% 1 8% 3 19% 0 0% 0 0%
More reliability 12 17% 0 0% 8 29% 3 25% 2 13% 0 0% 1 14%
Prices fall for other enterprise(s) 6 9% 0 0% 3 11% 1 8% 1 6% 1 25% 0 0%
Nothing 15 22% 1 50% 8 29% 1 8% 5 31% 1 25% 1 14%
State North West Central NW Central N N Midlands North East South
Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
30
Appendix D – Non-grower survey responses
Sample Size & Location
Number of growers on list
Regional share
Sample size
Regional share 12%12% 41% 18% 6% 12%
8% 16%
51 6 21 9 3 6 6
278 94 91 60 112
10% 39% 13% 13%
State North West Central NW Central N N Midlands North East South
707 72
Average (SD) Average (SD) Average (SD) Average (SD) Average (SD) Average (SD) Average (SD)
Farm area Total farm area 396 (1,149) 151 (105) 148 (144) 344 (346) 2,683 (4,605) 299 (268) 543 (919)
Potential poppy area
Potential poppy area 115 (148) 110 (75) 86 (102) 239 (278) 68 (80) 89 (56) 84 (84)
Maximum annual poppy area 21 (20) 24 (17) 20 (22) 34 (24) 13 (11) 18 (12) 12 (10)
Farm program this year
Crops 11 (31) 0 (1) 8 (17) 29 (66) 5 (8) 5 (6) 14 (11)
How many other crops? 1 (1) 0 (0) 0 (1) 1 (1) 1 (2) 1 (1) 2 (1)
Pasture 329 (1,109) 133 (94) 139 (147) 293 (251) 2,678 (4,609) 247 (175) 155 (138)
Total 345 (1,132) 100 (100) 141 (148) 322 (294) 2,683 (4,605) 254 (173) 143 (150)
Have you grown poppies in the past? 92% 67% 95% 100% 100% 83% 100%
SouthState North West Central NW Central N N Midlands North East
Factors Influencing Farmer Decisions to Grow Poppies
31
What is the main reason you are not growing poppies this year?
Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Number %
(1) Irrigation capacity 3 7% 1 17% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 1 17% 1 17%
Lack of water 2 67% 1 100% 1 100% 0 0%
Lack of irrigation infrastructure 2 67% 0 0% 1 100% 1 100%
Type of irrigation infrastructure 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Other 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
(2) Returns too low 16 36% 3 50% 5 24% 4 44% 1 33% 2 33% 1 17%
Price too low 6 38% 3 100% 2 40% 1 25% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Yields too low in this area 3 19% 0 0% 2 40% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 1 100%
Too risky 9 56% 1 33% 1 20% 3 75% 1 100% 2 100% 1 100%
Not profitable enough 4 25% 1 33% 1 20% 1 25% 0 0% 1 50% 0 0%
Other 1 6% 0 0% 1 20% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
(3) Suitable land occupied by other enterprises 15 33% 1 17% 7 33% 3 33% 0 0% 1 17% 3 50%
Other annual crops 1 7% 0 0% 1 14% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Pyrethrum 1 7% 0 0% 1 14% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Dairy 7 47% 1 100% 3 43% 2 67% 1 100% 0 0%
Beef/Sheep 2 13% 0 0% 1 14% 0 0% 0 0% 1 33%
Perennial horticulture 2 13% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2 67%
Other 2 13% 0 0% 1 14% 1 33% 0 0% 0 0%
(4) Couldn't get a contract 6 13% 0 0% 2 10% 1 11% 2 67% 0 0% 1 17%
Companies not interested in this area 2 33% 0 1 50% 0 0% 1 50% 0 0%
Didn't get in early enough 1 17% 0 0 0% 0 0% 1 50% 0 0%
Rotation 2 33% 0 1 50% 0 0% 0 0% 1 100%
Other 1 0 0 1 0 0
(5) Lifestyle 11 24% 1 17% 7 33% 1 11% 0 0% 2 33% 0 0%
Not interested in cropping 6 55% 1 100% 2 29% 1 100% 2 100% 0
Semi-retired 6 55% 0 0% 4 57% 1 100% 1 50% 0
Land leased out 3 27% 0 0% 2 29% 0 0% 1 50% 0
Other 1 9% 0 0% 1 14% 0 0% 0 0% 0
SouthState North West Central NW Central N N Midlands North East