Factors Influencing

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Factors Influencing. Presidential Decision Making. 1. Time Available. How much (quantity) time does the president have? If severe time constraints are involved, the situation is defined as a crisis. Possible last minute commutation of a death sentence. Nuclear War: 30 minutes away. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • 1. Time AvailableHow much (quantity) time does the president have?

    If severe time constraints are involved, the situation is defined as a crisis.Possible last minute commutation of a death sentence

  • Nuclear War: 30 minutes away

  • Nuclear War in Europe Scenario

  • Commuting a death sentence

  • 30 month sentence commuted by Pres. Bush after Scooter Libby named a CIA operative

  • 2. Amount of Prior Study and PreparationReadiness

  • The decision to try to send men to the moon would involve this factor. Was the US ready when Kennedy challenged the country to win the space race?

  • How much is really known about the Iranian Nuclear program? How far along? Who is it a threat to? (defensive war, preemptive war, or proactive war)

  • M1A Abrams Tank destroyed in Iraq.

  • Humvee destroyed in Iraq by roadside bomb.Roadside bomb crater Iraq

  • "As you know, you go to war with the Army you have. They're not the Army you might want or wish to have at a later time." Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld

  • How much did Kennedy really know about how far the missiles in Cuban were from being ready for launch?

  • 3. Importance of the IssueHow important is the issue really?

  • Flag Burning: Is it the deciding factor on who to vote for?

  • Illegal Immigration: Who wants them and why and who does not want them and why?

  • Potential nuclear war over Cuba or Iran v. the decision to see Alvin and the Chipmunks

  • 4. Personal BeliefsThe presidents political ideology as well as any other convictions that influence decision making.JFK (Liberal, Catholic)Bush 43 (Conservative, Protestant)Carter (Conservative Democrat, Baptist, supported prayer in school)

  • 5. Prior ExperienceThis factor is one of the most important.Consider President Bush 41 making decisions regarding foreign intelligence.JFK had backed down to the USSR at the Bay of Pigs, the Vienna Conference, and over the Berlin Wall

  • Two terms Representative from Texas. Ambassador to the United NationsChief of the U. S. Liaison Office in the People's Republic of ChinaDirector of the Central Intelligence Agency. Chairman of the Republican National Committee

  • 6. Style of Decision MakingHow does the president make decisions?

  • Truman: A loner

  • Carter: Small Inner Circle

  • Clinton: Larger Group

  • 7. Formal RulesWritten rules: the US ConstitutionCommander-in-chiefFederal lawsCivil Rights Act of 1965TreatiesNATO, SEATODeclarationsMonroe DoctrineAxis-of-Evil

  • Commander-in-Chief

  • Civil Rights Act of 1965

  • 8. Informal RulesTraditionRed Mass: Sunday before SCOTUS termProtocolSeating at a state dinnerPress protocol in the White House Other unwritten rules that govern behavior of the president (i.e. chain of command)

  • Red Mass

  • State Dinner

  • Press Conference

  • 9. Available ResourcesTangible things that the president has at his disposal.

  • Truman only had two of the Atomic Bombs. So what do you target?

  • U2 Spy plane to gather data and how many ships will it take to blockade Cuba?

  • Available Military Resources

    As of 2003, the United States occupied over 700 installations in over 36 countries worldwide. Some of the largest contingents are:Germany 75,603 Japan (US Forces Japan) 40,045 South Korea (US Forces Korea) 29,086 Italy 10,449 United Kingdom 10,331

  • 10. Status RelationshipsPeople who have face-to-face or easy contact with the president and influence decisions

  • Nixon and Kissinger

  • Bush and Blair

  • Clinton and Blair

  • 11. External Decision MakersPeople who influence the president but never actually communicate with the presidentHostages in Iran influenced Carters attempted rescued.Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Starving refugees in Darfur

    Gen. Peter Pace said the United States does not have a specific goal for troop numbers, but rather "off-ramps and on-ramps based on what we have on the ground." "The enemy has a vote on this," Gen. Pace said on "Fox News Sunday."

  • Hostages in Iran influenced Carters attempted rescued.Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

  • DARFUR, SUDAN

  • Gen. Peter Pace said the United States does not have a specific goal for troop numbers, but rather "off-ramps and on-ramps based on what we have on the ground." "The enemy has a vote on this," Gen. Pace said on "Fox News Sunday."

  • 12. Public OpinionThe opinion of the populace.Both domestic and international

    Public opinion is a tough factor because presidents have so much influence on it, it is sometimes difficult to determine which came first, the decision or public opinion.

  • James David Barbers The Presidential Character: Predicting Performance in the White House.

    PositiveNegative

    ActiveADAPTIVE: Confident, flexible; create opportunities for action; enjoy the exercise of power & do not take themselves too seriously; power is used as a means to achieve beneficial results.F. D. Roosevelt, H. Truman, J. F. Kennedy, G. Ford (G. W. Bush 1st term)COMPULSIVE: power is a means to self-realization; expend great energy on tasks derive little joy; preoccupied with whether failing or succeeding; low self-esteem; inclined to rigidity & are highly driven; problem managing aggression.W. Wilson, H. Hoover, A. Lincoln, L. B. Johnson, R. Nixon, (J. Kerry, A. Gore, H. Clinton)

    PassiveCOMPLIANT: superficially optimistic; seek to be loved; easily manipulated; have low self-esteem overcome by an ingratiating personality; react rather than initiate. W. H. Taft, W. Harding, R. Reagan, W. ClintonWITHDRAWN: respond to a sense of duty; avoid power; low self-esteem compensated by service to others; respond rather than initiate; avoid conflict and uncertainty; emphasize principles, procedures; an aversion to politicking.C. Coolidge, D. Eisenhower, G. Washington, (G.H.W. Bush, G. W. Bush 2nd term?)