FACETs: A New Warning Paradigm & Framework for Progress
description
Transcript of FACETs: A New Warning Paradigm & Framework for Progress
FACETs: A New Warning Paradigm &
Framework for Progress
Seeking Clarity & Coalescencein the Primordial Soup
Lans P. RothfuszDeputy Chief
Warning R & D DivisionNational Severe Storms Laboratory
Informing a Paradigm Shift
Future Warning
Paradigm
Good things we do now.
Challenges we have
now.Trajectories of science, tools and society.
First, do no harm!
Refine, revise and/or reinvent.
Where we’re headed.
A SAMPLING OF CURRENT CHALLENGES
The State of Warnings and Warning R&D
Is There Anything Wrong with this Tornado Warning?
BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS1155 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2012
*TORNADO WARNING FOR… NORTHERN SUNFLOWER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
* UNTIL 1 PM CST
* AT 1155 AM CST…A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC AND INDICATED BY RADAR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND…AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
IF THREATENING CONDITIONS ARE SIGHTED…BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY. TO REPORT A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER…PLACE AN EMERGENCY CALL TO THE JACKSON MS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT 601 939 5751…OR ASK THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NEAREST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
Answer: The Year!
Courtesy: Alan Gerard
Is There Anything Wrong with this Tornado Warning?
BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS1155 AM CST SUN FEB 21 1971
*TORNADO WARNING FOR… NORTHERN SUNFLOWER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
* UNTIL 1 PM CST
* AT 1155 AM CST…A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC AND INDICATED BY RADAR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND…AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
IF THREATENING CONDITIONS ARE SIGHTED…BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY. TO REPORT A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER…PLACE AN EMERGENCY CALL TO THE JACKSON MS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT 601 939 5751…OR ASK THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NEAREST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
40+ years ago!!
Courtesy: Alan Gerard
Current Warning System “Challenges”
• Warning methodologies have changed little in over 40 years.– Except for “bullet format” and “storm-based”
issuance.• Society has changed….
– Technology– Science– Social diversity– Lifestyles– Vulnerability
Current Warning System “Challenges”
• Polygons (in their current formulation) are blunt instruments for communicating a dynamic, small-scale threat.
Courtesy Greg Carbin, NWS SPC
Time Days
Outlooks
Adapted from Dr. Heather Lazrus (SSWIM)
Current Warning System “Challenges”
Space Regional State Local
Watches Warnings
Event
Hours Minutes
Information Void(s)
• Product-centric and binary.• More information needed.• More information available.
Information Continuum
EVOLUTIONAL TRAJECTORIES
Where We’re Headed…
Evolutional Trajectory #1
• Evolving Methods…– Some under
development (e.g., WoF)
– Most unsupported and/or untested.
– None are coordinated with the others.
PHI
WoF
Threat PetalsTIM
FDP
THESPA
Evolutional Trajectory #2
• Evolving Domain…– All developmental
trajectories point toward The Grid!
– Severe ops, however, are not on it.• A key issue for the
future of warnings!!
MRMS
Evolutional Trajectory #3
• Evolving Output…– Disparate projects
intended to make warnings more effective in influencing human behavior.
Mid-South Warning Improvement Project
Threats-In-Motion
Collaborative Study
Evolutional Trajectory #4
• A Nurturing Environment…– Testbeds & Proving
Grounds.– NWS Roadmap.
• Decision Support Services (DSS) through Pilot Projects.
– Weather Ready Nation.
• Emphasis on social science.
The Primordial Soup
Mid-South Warning Improvement Project
The Primordial Soup
Mid-South Warning Improvement Project
• “Ingredients” of the primordial soup are advancing, but each on their own trajectory.
• Poorly-coordinated = No assurance each will “arrive” in the same place as the others.– Impractical in today’s fiscal climate.– Problematic for those managing “warning R&D.”
• All connected by a common desire to improve public safety!
The Opportunity
• There is a need (and opportunity) to coalesce the disparate activities into a single vision for a threat forecasting* paradigm that is…– Modern– Effective– Scientifically robust– Holistic– Unifying– Responsive to WRN-identified issues
*beyond watches & warnings
Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats
FACETs Paradigm
• Seven Facets of the Paradigm1. Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats2. Storm-Scale Obs & Guidance3. The Forecaster4. Threat Grid Tools5. Useful Output 6. Effective Response7. Verification
Temporal Continuum
of theThreat
ForecastingProcess
Grid-Based Probabilistic
Threats
Facet #1: Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats
ACK!!! Probabilities for the public?!
Facet #1: Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats
• Grid-Based, Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI)– Forecasters convey
threat probability on grids.
– NOT (explicitly) watches or warnings, but…
Tornado threat indexValid 10:00 pm-10:15 pm
CDTLast updated: 6 minutes ago
Courtesy G. Stumpf
Facet #1: Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats
“Byproduct” Tornado Warning
• Legacy products (warnings/watches) result from pre-determined thresholds.
• De-emphasizes the binary “warn/don’t warn” decision of forecasters.
• Enables new products! Tornado threat indexValid 10:00 pm-10:15 pm
CDTLast updated: 6 minutes ago
Courtesy G. Stumpf
Sub-WarningAlert for High Wind
Grid-Based Probabilistic
Threats
Facet #2: Obs & Guidance
Observations & Guidance
Facet #2: Obs & Guidance
• Warn on Forecast– NWP for storm-scale processes.– Probabilistic output that will enable FACETs.
Synoptic Scale Storm ScaleGFS, NAM, RAP, etc. Warn on Forecast
MOS Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely-Sensed Storms
(MYRORSS)
Facet #2: Obs & Guidance
• Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely-Sensed Storms (MYRORSS).– 15-year radar data reanalysis.– Statistical (probabilistic) output of
climatological storm-scale “behavior” (phenomena, longevity, severity, etc.)
– Paves way for WoF probabilistic output.
Grid-Based Probabilistic
Threats
Facet #3: The Forecaster
Observations & Guidance
The Forecaster
Facet #3: The Forecaster
• Forecasters over (and in) the grids!!– As essential as ever to the warning process.
• New paradigm = new training!– Probabilistic threat information.– Uncertainty conveyance.– Use of guidance.– Best practices.– Tool use, etc.
• For maximum effectiveness of FACETs, NWS must have renewed training efforts.
Grid-Based Probabilistic
Threats
Facet #4: Threat Grid Tools
Observations & Guidance
The Forecaster
Threat Grid Tools
Facet #4: Threat Grid Tools
• WarnGen for threat grids.• GSD’s “Hazard Services”
AWIPS-II app is headed in this direction.– Specific tools needed for
storm-scale threats.• For example, a supercell widget
to quickly “draw” hail, wind and tornado threat swaths all at once.
• Need to strengthen connections to warning R&D.
Grid-Based Probabilistic
Threats
Facet #5: Useful Output
Observations & Guidance
The Forecaster
Threat Grid Tools
Useful Output
Facet #5: Useful Output
• Watches & warnings, yes.– User-specifiable thresholds!
• Impact-focused, with new information – Urgency, confidence, range
of possibilities, etc.• Enables copious
opportunities for private sector partners.
“Byproduct” Tornado Warning
Courtesy G. Stumpf
Sub-WarningAlert for High Wind
Facet #5: Useful Output
Hail DamageTrees Down>EF3 TornadoLightning
Tornado Grid
Hail Grid
Wind Grid
Impact Grid
GIS layers
Hail Wind Flood Tornado
10
35
2 1
Weather Threats4701 N Porter Ave
Hail Wind Flood Tornado
35
90
5
80
Weather Threats4701 N Porter Ave
Facet #5: Useful Output
Until5:30 p.m.
Act Now!Act Now!
Low
Med
High
Until6:45 p.m.
Phone App Example
Last Update6:15 p.m.
Last Update5:00 p.m.
Facet #5: Useful Output
• Better DSS through better (and easier) impact communication.– Based on weather threat forecast, a GIS-based,
“impact translator tool” could communicate the site-specific impact.• Forecast: “Wind gusts to 60 mph” • Impact: “Numerous trees and branches will fall.
Roofing material will be peeled back. Mobile homes will be rolled.”
– Gives more useful, actionable, recipient-specific information.
Grid-Based Probabilistic
Threats
Facet #6: Effective Response
Observations & Guidance
The Forecaster
Threat Grid Tools
Useful Output
Effective Response
Facet #6: Effective Response
• Start at the end…– “Look at the desired response and work our way
backwards from there.” - Dr. Russ Schneider
Publ
ic
The Impact ResponseEducation Preparation Awareness
Fore
cast
er Method Guidance Decision
Publ
ic
Fore
cast
er
The Impact
SocSci Integration PointsResponseEducation Preparation Awareness
Method Guidance Decision
HumanFactors
Economics
Anthropology
Sociology
Psychology
PublicPolicy
Communication
HumanGeography
PoliticalScience
Linguistics
CulturalStudies
PoliticalScience
Economics
Communication
HumanFactorsHuman
Factors
LawPsychology
Sociology
Psychology
Economics
CulturalStudies
Linguistics
Psychology
Anthropology
HumanFactors
AnthropologyHumanFactors
Psychology
Grid-Based Probabilistic
Threats
Facet #7: Verification
Observations & Guidance
The Forecaster
Threat Grid Tools
Useful Output
Effective Response
Verification Methods
Facet #7: Verification• Forecasts and observations on the same
coordinate system: A geospatial grid.
• Statistically-valid and scientifically-robust results suitable for system improvement & research. – Reliability– Resolution
• New metrics possible…– False alarm time & area.– Site-specific lead time, etc. Resolution: 1 km2 × 1 min
FALSE
HITMISS
CORRECTNULL
} Brier Score
From ECMWF and Allan Murphy
Grid-Based Probabilistic
Threats
• PHI• TIM
FACETs
Mid-South Warning Improvement Project
Observations & Guidance
• WoF• MYRORSS
The Forecaster
• Training• Drills• Best
Practices• DSS
Threat Grid Tools
• Hazard Services
• NWSWarn• Threat Petals
Useful Output
• HazSimp• Impact-
based warnings
• Mid-South Warning Improvement Project
• DSS
Effective Response
• Education• Preparedness• Awareness• Threat &
Vulnerability Matching
Verification Methods
• Grid-based, improved metrics.
Integrated Social Science
HWT, OPG & Pilot Project “Development & Polishing”
In Conclusion…
• FACETs is……A new warning paradigm (grid-based threats); …A framework intended to organize and guide
reinvention efforts.
• FACETs designed to……Continue “the good” of the present system.…Accommodate trajectories of science,
technology and society;…Focus and guide warning R&D work;…Provide clarity in “The Primordial Soup!”