Facebook may be the largest “country” on earth by 2016

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You can read the full article at http://royal.pingdom.com/2013/02/05/facebook-2016/

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But here is a summary.

Facebook overtook the United States as the third largest “country” three years ago, and in September 2012 Facebook announced that it passed the one billion user mark.

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China and India are currently the two most populous countries in the world. But can Facebook  become the largest “country” on earth and when will it happened? We think we have the answer.

Facebook has had an enormous growth over the past five years, ballooning from 58 million users in late 2007 to 1 billion users today. That is the equivalent to a yearly increase of a mind-blowing 77%!

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In comparison with the world population, which currently stands at about 7 billion, the number of Facebook users may seem small. But we think you may change your mind when you look at the chart on the next page.

0

1,750,000,000

3,500,000,000

5,250,000,000

7,000,000,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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World population, Internet users and Facebook users

Data sources: World Bank, ITU, Facebook

World population

Facebook users

Internet users

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Here are some of the more interesting numbers:

•Currently there are around 2.4 billion Internet users in the world.

•At the end of 2012, 41.6% of  Internet users where also Facebook users. In 2007, that number was only 4.4%

•Facebook penetration worldwide was 14% at the end of 2012, up from 5.3% in 2009.

Can Facebook keep on growing at this speed for years to come?

And when will there be more Facebook users than population in either China or India, whichever is the largest country by population at the time?

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The short answer: Facebook could be the biggest “country” on earth in just a few years.

0

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2004 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2019

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Facebook users, populations of China and India

Data sources: Facebook, World Bank, Population Reference Bureau, Pingdom

Projection

Population of China

Population of India

Facebook users

6%growth

Growth declining10% per year

Can this happen?

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There are certainly signs, which indicate that Facebook can grow at this pace.The main one is that Facebook has a low penetration rate in large parts of the world.Also, Facebook is still blocked in China. If this changes in the future, the world’s largest online market opens up to Facebook.

So, by 2016, the largest “country” in the world may be publicly listed, but not a member of the United Nations.

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SourcesFacebook, ITU, Population Reference Bureau, World Bank.And a few of our own calculations :)

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