F2.2. From foresight to research programming
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Transcript of F2.2. From foresight to research programming
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From foresight to research programming : Agrimonde, Dualine…
Marion Guillou, chair of the Board Agreenium
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Agreenium ?
• A French centre for research and higher education operating as a public scientific cooperation body
• in the fields of agriculture, food, animal health and the environment
• To create synergy between research , education and dissemination
• To best respond collectively to the issues and challenges of food security and sustainable agriculture worldwide
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• Foresight processes transform the way we think and how we understand things
• They make people change their own point of view
• The foresight practices and techniques help managers, decision makers, politicians… to cope with environmental uncertainty and complexity and to react promptly to opportunities and threats
• In a complex and globalized world, it is more necessary than ever to imagine several scenarios ,to collect “weak signals” and to anticipate
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• More than 100 researchers involved, who broke down the question of the sustainability of current food supply systems into a range of research issues
• The study highlights a clear lack of data
• It underlines the need for building scenarios on food supply systems to clarify the margins of uncertainty of the potential evolutions of the food systems and their consequences
• Complementary to Agrimonde, by focusing on the downstream of the systems and in particular on the consumers
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Agrimonde terra
• complementary to Agrimonde
• Future land use is subject to uncertainty and to controversies between societal players, and is an important issue for global governance
• The foresight exercise will explore the conditions under which land use worldwide could become either an aggravating or a securing factor in food security.
• By combining regional approaches and a global approach, and linking the different levels with trade
• By combining a quantitative approach (modelling) with a qualitative approach (narratives, scenario building)
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The link to research programming at Inra
• “Metaprogrammes” : inter-disciplinary research on global challenges• to implement cross-cutting research programmes which will
mobilize research teams from different scientific disciplines
• to identify major bottlenecks where research is needed
• Six Metaprogrammes launched in 2011
• « Foresight based » :• highlighting of the interdependences between systems and
scales
“The inescapable interconnectedness of agriculture’s different roles and functions” (IAASTD 2009)
• the need for changing the production paradigm : to produce more and other things, better, with less ,and differently
• the need for systemic and integratives approaches
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What should we take care of ?• Foresight changes the representations that we have of the
future, in the light of reason, using the most objective data available (Thierry Gaudin)
• Beware of assertions : “agricultural production will have to increase by 70 % by 2050 to feed a population of some 9 billion people”
• The power of foresight is often underestimated
• The traps of the extrapolation come either from an inaccurate knowledge of the past, or from the incapacity to take into account possible ruptures (Philippe Madinier)
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• Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future, Niels Bohr
Thank you for your attention
Photograph by AB Lagrelius & Westphal