FUTURE FOOD: LIMITS TO OPTIMAL

INTERNATIONAL HEALTH

Mark L Wahlqvist AO

MD (Adelaide & Uppsala), FRACP, FAFPHM, FAIFST, FTSE

Wahlqvist ML. APJCN 2009;18:480-5.

FOOD, HEALTH AND HUMAN SECURITIES ARE INTER-DEPENDENT

Wahlqvist ML. APJCN 2009;18:480-5.

FOOD SECURITY IS DEPENDENT ON ITS SAFETY, SUFFICIENCY, SATISFACTORINESS (HOW NUTRITIOUS AND ACCEPTABLE) AND SUSTAINABILITY

Empty bowls: hunger and poverty

Brown LR. Scientific American 2009; 50-57

Chen L et al. APJCN 2009;18:605-19.

THE VICIOUS CYCLE OF POVERTY AND FOOD INSECURITY

Hunger Trends

Brown LR. Scientific American 2009; 50-57

Liao IC et al. APJCN 2009;18:564-9.

INCREASE IN THE NUMBERS OF HUNGRY POPULATIONS AROUND THE WORLD FROM 2008 TO 2009

Krawinkel MB. APJCN 2009;18:570-6.

INFANT MORTALITY RATES PER 1000 LIVE BIRTHS IN SELECTED AFRICAN AND ASIAN COUNTRIES (MOST RECENT DATA. WHOSIS 2009)

Chen L et al. APJCN 2009;18:605-19.

1. Eradicate extreme poverty & hunger

2. Achieve universal primary education

3. Promote gender equality & empower women

4. Reduce child mortality

5. Improve maternal health

6. Combat HIV/ AIDS, malaria & other disease

7. Ensure environmental sustainability

8. Develop a global partnership for development

MDGs eight goals

Brown LR. Scientific American 2009; 50-57

Brown LR. Scientific American 2009; 50-57

Groundwater Depletion Northern India-2009

Water and its role in food and health security-the importance of water to food production

Asa K Wahlquist

New water-related health problems:source and way we drink

Gender-behavioural changes in children whose mothers have been exposed to unsafe water during pregnancy,

Babies who have been fed from plastic bottles leaching endocrine disruptors

People with insulin resistance who have been exposed to agricultural chemicals.

The source of our drinking water

More and more it will not be just the water, but the way in which it is captured, desalinated, recycled, reticulated, stored, packed and sold that will be of concern

Already the citizens of an Australian town (Bundanoon) have refused to provide its pristine water source to plastic bottlers and banned the plastic bottles from the town

The future means nutrient, including water science, will need to embrace its own societal and environmental science

Brown LR. Scientific American 2009; 50-57

http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100929/full/news.2010.498.html

PHOSPHATE

Cordell D et al., Global Environmental Chang 2009; 19: 292-305

Climate change & food security-yields

Brown LR. Scientific American 2009; 50-57

DIET AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Carlsson-Kanyanma A and Gonzalez AD. AJCN 2009;98:1704S-1709S

DIET AND CLIMATE CHANGEENVIRONMENTALLY RELEVANT

INPUTS FOR NONVEGETARIAN VS. VEGETARIAN DIETS

Marlow HJ et al., AJCN 2009;89:1S-5S

Animal Staples

Share of Expend After Price Rise

Rural Bangladesh

Non-Food

Staples

Non-Food

Share of ExpendBefore Price Rise

Rising Food Prices-will this continue? Less arable land & sustainable food-producing

ecosystems Conversion from food to biofuels Energy peak Water peak Fertiliser (phosphorus) peak Precarious food systems

farmers, transport, packaging, storage, food habits, food waste

FUTURE FOOD

Likely Increasing shortage, decreasing variety

(especially fish, F&Vs ),less affordability, growing food inequity

Possible Bioengineered crops to withstand climate

change, and increase nutritional quality of staples

Required Sound & relevant socio-political governance,

Infrastructure, Biodiversity for food variety, Knowledge-driven food & water systems for adequacy &sustainability,

Food Diversity Why is it important?

Sustainability

Food quality

Provides alternatives

Homo Sapiens is omnivorous with plant food orientation

More likely to be micronutrient adequate

Favourably predicts health outcomes

DDS

t_follow_t8.006.004.002.000.00

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Survival Functions

Year of follow up

3

4

5

6

National Geographic. September 2008.

Social economics & dietary diversity

Wahlqvist ML. APJCN 2003;12(3):304-8

Impact of food culture on dietary diversity-Melbourne, Australia

Wahlqvist ML. APJCN 2003;12(3):304-8

Food DiversityConstraints

Locality

Trade

Affordability

Liao IC et al. APJCN 2009;18:564-9.

GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF MAJOR GRAINS FROM 1961-2007

Liao IC et al. APJCN 2009;18:564-9.

GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF MAJOR ANIMAL PROTEINS FROM 1961-2007

Weinberger KM et al. APJCN 2009;18:507-15.

FOOD SECURITY AND ASIA AND THE PACIFIC, AND FRUIT AND VEGETABLE CONSUMPTION

Liao IC et al. APJCN 2009;18:564-9.

PERCENTAGE AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION IN ASIA AND OTHER REGIONS IN 2007

Liao IC et al. APJCN 2009;18:564-9.

LIMITATIONS TO FUTURE FOOD

Arable Land Water Climate Fertiliser Technology

http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100929/full/news.2010.498.html

PHOSPHATE

Cordell D et al., Global Environmental Chang 2009; 19: 292-305

Lin AYC et al. APJCN 2009;18:538-45.

MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE COMPOSITION: TAIWAN EPA AND LOCAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION BUREAUS (2008)

HOW FOOD DETERMINES HEALTH

Nutritionally Socio-culturally Economically Climate efffects

OPTIMAL HEALTH

Well-being Minimal morbidity Life expectancy, with various vulnerabilities

INTERNATIONAL HEALTH

Increasingly borderless International protocols (UN) Domestic health systems (Universal insurance, equity)

Wahlqvist ML et al. APJCN 2009;18:688-702.

THE CONNECTEDNESS OF PLANETARY AND HUMAN SECURITY: RELATED AND CONTEXUAL TYPES

Brown LR. Scientific American 2009; 50-57

FUTURE DIRECTIONS & SOLUTIONS

Food on Security Agenda Integrated Systems Approach CCH-FBS

PROBLEM-SOLVING STRATEGIES

CCH-FBS

CCH-FBS

Wahlqvist ML & Kuo KN. APJCN 2009;18:472-9.

THE KNOWLEDGE AND SKILL SETS, INFORMANTS AND INFRASTRUCTURAL EXPERTISE REQUIREMENTS FOR A FOOD IN HEALTH SECURITY NETWORK

Krawinkel MB. APJCN 2009;18:570-6.

CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF NUTRITION SECURITY (MODIFIED AFTER THE UNICEF-MODEL OF IMMEDIATE AND UNDERLYING CAUSES IF CHILDHOOD MALNUTRITION)

Wahlqvist ML & Kuo KN. APJCN 2009;18:472-9.

THE PURPOSE AND DELIVERABLES OF A FOOD IN HEALTH SECURITY NETWORK

Food Shortages and Civilisation

Brown LR. Scientific American 2009; 50-57

Could food shortages do this?

Possibly and there be a world without us!But, there may still be time &

opportunity