ركبملا كرّحتلاو ركبملا هيبنتلا14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 17.5 18 Usgure haji...
Transcript of ركبملا كرّحتلاو ركبملا هيبنتلا14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 17.5 18 Usgure haji...
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“Building Resilience by Linking Community Based Early Warning Systems to Informal Safety Nets in Somalia”
Abdullahi M. Yussuf (Country Director, CARE Somalia)
Mr Abdirizak Nur (Somalia deputy representative FEWS NET) Dr. Georgina Jordan (SomReP Quality Assurance and Knowledge Manager )
2nd Arab Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt, 14-16 September 2014
Alerte précoce, Action rapide
المبكرالمبكر والتحّرك التنبيه
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Presentation Outline
• Early warning systems in Somalia
• Key climate risks faced in Somalia
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Early Warning Systems in Somalia
• Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET)
o since 1985 worldwide, since 1995 in Somalia
o Leading provider of information and analysis on food security
• Resources for governments, international relief agencies, NGOs, researchers,
humanitarian response planers, and journalists
o To project food security outcomes in the future FEWS NET develops a set
of assumptions
• regarding likely events, their effects, and probable responses of various actors
o Assumptions are interpreted in the context of the current conditions and
local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario
• Typically for six months
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Early Warning Systems in Somalia
Other information collection bodies in Somalia and FEWS NET’s partners
o Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU)
• A project managed by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
• A primary source for information on food security, nutrition, and livelihoods in Somalia
o Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM)
• an information management unit within FAO Somalia focusing on water and rainfall
o Somalia Resilience Program (SomRep)
• A multi-year effort by seven leading NGOs
• Includings World Vision, Oxfam, DRC, COOPI, CARE, ADRA, and ACF
• Designed to tackle the challenge of recurrent droughts and reduce chronic
vulnerability through early action
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Early Warning Systems in Somalia
National disaster management agencies
o National Environment Research and Disaster Preparedness and
Management Authority (NERAD) in Somaliland
o Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management Agency (HADMA)
in Puntland
o Somali Disaster Management Agency (SDMA) in South-Central
Somalia
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Sources of Data and Tools : Livelihoods
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FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
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Sources of Data and Tools : Remote Sensing
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FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
• Mapviewer (USGS)
• RFE rainfall plots
http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews/mapv
iewer/
CHIRPS - monthly
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Sources of Data and Tools : FEWS NET Data
Portal
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FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
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Sources of Data and Tools :
Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI)
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FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
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Sources of Data and Tools :
Regional and National Climate Partners
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FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
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Sources of Data and Tools : Market Information
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FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
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Sources of Data and Tools : Databases
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FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
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9 Steps of Scenario Development
STEP 1: Set scenario parameters
STEP 2: Describe and classify current food
security
STEP 3: Develop key assumptions
STEP 4: Describe impacts on HH income
sources
STEP 5: Describe impacts on HH food
sources
STEP 6: Develop response assumptions
STEP 7: Describe and classify projected HH
food security
STEP 8: Describe and classify projected area food security
STEP 9: Identify events which could
change the scenario
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Examples of Early Warning : Price Projections
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Key Climate Risks
• Drought
• Floods
• Cyclones
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Key Climate Risks: River Flooding
• The Shabelle
River routinely
breaks 12
points within 90
km
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Key Climate Risks: Cyclones 2014 cyclone impacts in Jariban Town, Dangorayo, Iskusuban, and Bay Districts in Puntland
Source: HADMA
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Early Warning Products
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Livelihood viability & innovation
(Livelihood
& Community Assets)
Safety Nets
(Collective Action &
Community Assets
Governance of community
assets
(Collective Action)
Ecosystem health
(Community
Assets)
SYSTEMIC ANALYSIS OF VULNERABILITY ( targeting improvements of absorptive, adaptive transformative capacity)
Som ReP Program Results
Adaptive Capacity Transformative Capacity Absorptive Capacity
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Absorptive Capacity Building – SomReP
Result 2
• Organizing community DRR groups
• Identifying hazards, threats and risks
• DNH assessment and planning
• DRR planning and action planning
Disaster Risk Reduction
• Self help groups for vulnerable HHs (savings)
• seed & fodder banks
• Crisis modifier fund ( SomReP TU)
• Link to Early Action system
Contingency resources
• Community based monitoring by DRR groups
• Linked to NGOs for crisis modifier fund
• Linked to FSNAU & FEWSNET to provide macro level data
Early Action
System
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SomReP Safety Net System – Absorptive
Capacity
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Absorptive Capacity Over Time
Ad
aptive C
apacity
Ab
sorp
tive Cap
acity
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Early Action System
4. Actions
EWC indicators are (a) community nominated, and (b) SomReP advised
1. Data Collection
2. Early Warning Mechanism
3. Early Action Mechanism
COMMUNITY EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
Data collected & collated in Early Warning Cloud
Real time analysis by agencies
Reports produced for stakeholders
MENU OF ACTIONS
Actions triggered by shifts in meta indicator severity
Agencies’ prepared ‘Menu of Actions’
Actions scale up based on severity
NGO Safety Net
SomReP Pooled Fund
Reprogramming
Cash Programming
Advocacy
Community Safety Net
Contingency Plans
Advocacy
Community Pooled Fund
Community Based Disaster Risk Management Contingency Plans
Fast Onset Disaster Response by Agencies
feedback
Public reports produced for donors & media (advocacy)
DATA COLLECTION
FSNAU & FEWS NET (regional)
Agencies (district)
Early Warning Committees (local)
FSNAU, FEWS NET, NERAD etc
UN Safety Net
Food Programming
WFP & UNICEF
Humanitarian Donors
•Funding contingency plans
•Cash Programming
Analysis Tool
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Real Time Information Sharing
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Food Security & Livelihoods • NDVI vegetation
conditions by region
• Market Prices – Goats (local)
• Market Prices – Key commodity (cereals)
• Market Prices – Water
• Market Prices – Labour
• Rainfall
Health & Nutrition • Admission rates to
health Centres for AWDs
• Malnutrition admissions at Health Centres
• Secondary nutrition data
Conflict • HH Unseasonal
Migration
• Livestock unseasonal migration
• School pupil attendance
• Early Child Marriage
Meta Indicators Used in Crisis Modifier
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Early Action - Triggers
SomReP Early Warning Triggers:
•Specific indicators roll up into overall meta indicator severity
•Agency Menu of Actions triggered by shift in meta-indicator severity
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Crisis Modifier – Early Warning
Analysis
1. Agency meta /specific indicators (Crisis Modifier Tool) & recommended actions (Menu of Actions)
2. Community Early Warning Communities (contingency plans, indicators, consultations)
3. Historic trend data of early warning indicators
4. Third party reports i.e. FEWS NET & FSNAU, cluster reports & working groups
EVIDENCE BASED EARLY ACTION
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Crisis Modifier – Early Actions Matrix
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Early Warning Committees
• Based on Oxfam’s CBDRM model in Somaliland
• Act as sub committee of local level governance
• Develop contingency plans, monitor ‘pictoral early warning’ indicators
• Receive Early warning information from FEWS/FSNAU through mobile system & radio
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Early Action Pilot June - Oct 2014
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July 2014 Early Action Request
• Total Funding Gap Approved: USD 777, 791
• Total HH Targeted: (6438 total Households)
– Badhan: 1500 HH
– Dangorayo: 700 HH
– Eyl: 2240 HH
– El Barde: 815 HH
– Luuq: 1183 HH
• Early Actions Taken: Borehole Rehabilitation, Livestock
Vaccination, CFW, Cash Transfers, Community Conflict
Resolution (water & pasture), Water Trucking
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SomReP Early Action Pilot
Assessment
• Conducted in 3 districts: – Badhan (CARE Intl)
– Dangorayo (World Vision Somalia)
– El Barde (ACF)
• Scope: test the usefulness of each early warning indicator collected, the feasibility and importance of each in monitoring early warning at the project level, and their links to appropriate early actions
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17.5
17.3
16.8
16.5 16.3
15.1
16.6
13.5
14
14.5
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
17.5
18
Usgure haji khaeyer Buthubuto Ceel Buul Bakabaq Barweyn District Average
Coping Strategies Index -
Dangorayo
Usgure
haji khaeyer
Buthubuto
Ceel Buul
Bakabaq
Barweyn
District Average
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SomReP Action Report
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Learning & system improvement Pilot Assessment learning:
• Sample consistency issues to address
• Refinement of trigger thresholds for non-standard tools
• Refine Conflict Indicators
• Need to simplify and reduce number of collection tools
Early Action Programming learning:
• Refining menu of early actions (improving benchmarks)
• Linking PRA results & Community DRR plans to early warning triggers & actions
• District level coordination and planning on early action between UN, NGOs & local govt interventions
• Donor Engagement - standard early action template, financing options for early actions (SIDA and DFAT examples)
• Improve linkages with FAO, UNICEF & WFP for wider impact
• Evaluate, document and disseminate impact of early actions
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Next Steps – Simplify, Scale up &
Engage
• Simplify data collection & analysis & programming
• Scale up & roll out EW monitoring for NGOs
• BRCIS & SomReP joint early warning system
• Early Warning Committees to use tool for monitoring
• EW Information Sharing - Radio Ergo, SMS, community notice boards
• Market Analysis & Scenario Building training (FEWS NET)
• Market Prices, rainfall data collection to feed into FEWSNET, & FSNAU
• District early action planning with local govt, community, NGOs & UN
• Engaging donors on standardising process & funding mechanism for early action
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PRESENTATION OUTLINE
1. Village Savings and Loans Association ( VSLA) brief.
2. Critical value of Somali remittances to Social safety nets.
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Village Savings and Loans Association (VSLA)
• Approach was chosen based on the positive experiences in 21 countries in Africa by consortium member agency CARE
• We facilitate the formation of the VSLA in pastoralist communities by providing necessary support in managing the loans and recording the incomes.
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Making rural communities more resilient (rural women)
• Helps women and their households improve their economic resilience, play a greater role in local leadership and more easily access key economic resources.
• CARE research shows that rural families with access to an income stream or an asset base are better able survive drought with less loss of animals, than households whose only income is from pastoralism.
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Formation new VSLA group in Mait village
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VSLA orientation in Gudmo village
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VSLA Member presenting session during workshop
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Goods produced by VSLA groups
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Remittances
• Remittances provide an essential lifeline to and within Somalia and cushion the communities to slide into livelihood crises.
• Estimates of their annual value range from US$1 billion to $2 billion. The US is the largest source country, while an estimated $160 million is sent from the UK every year. In some parts of Somalia, 40 percent of the population receives regular remittances, with 80 percent of them spending the money on basic services.
• Approximately 40% of HHs (in Somaliland and Puntland) report receiving remittances (source: FSNAU).
• More than two decades of civil conflict have left the country’s formal economy and banking sector in ruins. Remittances have replaced this sector, not only boosting the meager incomes of families but also allowing the private sector to do business and, increasingly, providing aid agencies with a more efficient way of responding to drought and famine.
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Challenges facing remittances
• Threats to closing remittance bank accounts in remittance sending countries by legislators, particularly in the US.
• Potential of reduced remittance as the current money sending generation ages.
• Increasingly relaying on single money sender.
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