Extreme oceanic events
description
Transcript of Extreme oceanic events
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Extreme oceanic events
David Griffin
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
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Special thanks to
• Madeleine Cahill• George Cresswell and Jason Middleton• John Wilkin and Alan Pearce• Peter Campbell, Jason Waring, • Kim Badcock (and the whole remote sensing group)• Jim Mansbridge• The Bluelink and IMOS communities (many great people)• Peter Thompson, referees and the panel
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1995 Mass Mortality of Pilchard –due to an extreme ocean event?
?
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• Event was extreme but not unprecedented• Shift focus to the virus• Exposed ill-preparedness for addressing urgent questions• Assembling data took too long• Available data were too few• Too hard to know ‘how anomalous’ various observations were• Nevertheless, I think we got it right• BTW, the next comparable upwelling was not til 2010:
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2010 upwelling event, similar to 1995:
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The cause: occasional summer wind pattern
Sea Surface Temperature
Sea level anomaly
High
wind
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Next, two Qld events. Ocean impact unnoticed?
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beautiful one day….(9 Feb 1997)
Sea level anomaly Sea Surface Temperature
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TC Andrew (25 March 1997) the next.
Sea level anomaly Sea Surface Temperature
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Month later: cold along NGBR
Sea level anomaly
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16 March 2010: TC ULUI
Sea level anomaly
L
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25 May (TC ULUI + 40d)
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30 June 2010 (TC ULUI + 110d)
Fast current,Possibleupwelling
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Tropical cyclones on NWS: hazard to oil and gas.TC Phil 31 Dec 1996, cat 3 but slow moving
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More recently (15 March 2012)
TC Lua
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20 March 2012 (TC Lua + 5d)
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Chlor-a for same day(new on IMOS OceanCurrent):
100km.100km.30m=60t chl-a
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Highest-ever sea level at Fremantle, 2pm WST:
3h period seiche (Molloy, 2001)
MSL
surge
tide
Leeuwin
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Two weeks before storm:
Cold core eddy
Leeuwin
0.4m
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ROAM sea level, 10-12 June 2012.
Sea level anomaly
N
E
Rottnest Is
Cockburn SoundLeeuwin
180km
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CSIRO Bluelink Relocatable Ocean Atmosphere Model sea level, 10 June 2012
200m1000m
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2pm WST 10 June 2012
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Cockburn Sound.Highest sea level: 2pm WST 10 June 2012:
Photo Credit: Steve Brooks, PerthWeatherLivePhoto: Steve Brooks, Perth Weather Live
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A few days later
Photo: Steve Brooks, Perth Weather Live
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Median energy flux of ocean currents
0 Median non-tidal current speed 0.8 (m/s)
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Median energy flux of ocean currents
0 Median non-tidal current speed 0.8 (m/s)
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Cyclonic Eddy(Low sealevel)
Is it real? Yes, see drifter.
Is it extraordinary?Lets look at some history
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Maximum (in 1994-2011) gridded altimetric (+ filtered tidegauge) sea level anomaly:
+1m
SLA
-1m
wide range:
0.3m
to
1.1m
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99th percentile anomaly (exceeded 1% of time) - the max is 30% higher than this
+1m
SLA
-1m
0.2m
0.7m
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1st percentile anomaly (exceeded 99% of time)
+1m
SLA
-1m
-0.7m
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Lowest sea level is 30% lower than 1st %-ile
-1m
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Maximum anomaly map again.highest highs are south of the lowest lows
+1m
SLA
-1m
Lowest low was here
Highest highIs here
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Median elevation (50th percentile)near zero – i.e. distribution is fairly symmetric
+1m
SSHA
-1m
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Cyclonic Eddy(Low sealevel)
Is it real? Yes, see drifter.
Is it extraordinary?Lets use that history
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16 Jan 2011: Many extreme highs and lows
1.5m/s
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Back 4 days (to 12 Jan)
flood
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Back 4 days (to 8 Jan)
Pre flood:Sea level extreme
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Back 4 days (to 4 Jan)
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Back 4 days (to 31 Dec)
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Back 4 days (to 27 Dec)
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Back 4 days (to 23 Dec)
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That high sea level all along the Qld-NSW coast was not a ‘storm surge’
• Coastal sea level was very high. Anomaly of nearshore current was zero. Odd situation – still needs investigation.
• Lets now go back to 16 Jan then step forward.
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vanishing
growing
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Discussion
• Marine science has tended to focus on the ‘normal’ behaviour of the ocean
• But observing systems are now adequate for us to also focus on the rare occasions when something extreme happens
• Some events have obvious societal impacts, e.g. beach erosion, coastal flooding, coral bleaching, fish kills, oil rig failures
• Many do not – but may – e.g. chlor-a blooms and deserts• Extreme events pose a challenge to observing system
design, quality control of data, and data interpretation• I think the effort is warranted
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Thank you