Extreme Climate in the region: Gaps and Opportunities

Erwin MakmurClimate Early Warning Subdivision, BMKG

Lead of Working Group Climate Services, WMO RAV erwin.makmur@bmkg.go.id

International Workshop on The Digitations of Historical Climate Data, The News SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region

Citeko-Bogor, April 3, 2012

OUTLINE BACKGROUND CHALLENGES AND

OPPORTUNITY SOUTHEAST ASIAN CLIMATE

OUTLOOK FORUM (SEACOF): A Proposal

SUMMARY

CLIMATE DRIVER FOR ASEAN COUNTRIES

DM (+)LOCAL SST

1

2 El Nino

La NinaDM (-)3

In Fact: There are many climate drivers still not recognized Prediction Accuracy???

WMO OPERATING PLAN FOR THE SIXTEENTH FINANCIAL PERIOD (2012-2015)

–Expected Result 2: Enhanced capabilities of Members to reduce risks and potential impacts of hazards caused by weather, climate and water and related environmental elements

–Expected Result 3: Enhanced capabilities of Members to produce better weather, climate, water and related environmental information, predictions and warnings to support in particular climate impact and adaptation strategies.

Components of Framework for Climate Services

GFCS

Disaster over the World

Source: BNPB

Disaster over the World (1990-2005)

Source: BNPB

Disaster Occurence Death Number of Vulnerable

PeopleFlood 2.624 1.837 11.943.017Landslide 1.145 2.864 458.760Extreme Wind

925 235 151.214

Drought 1.152 0 -Total 5.847 4.936 12.552.991

Disaster Incident over Indonesia(1998-2009)

Source: BNPB

Disaster incident increase significantly More than 70% caused by hydrometeorology The Disaster trend is predicted increase due to the increasing

of global climate change and the degradation of environment

Trend of Disaster Incident over Indonesia Year 2002-2009

190

529

895814

888

691

499

190

529

895

691814

889

1306

1675

Source: BNPB

Role of NMHS for Supporting DRR

Disaster Risk Reduction (FLOOD n

DROUGHT)

DISASTER MANAGEMENT(INSTITUTION INTERFACE)

CLIMATE EARLY

WARNING(NMHS)

REDUCING SOUL AND ECONOMIC

LOSS

ENHANCING CLIMATE EARLY WARNING COMPONENTS

INCREASING CAPACITY BUILDING

(MAN POWER)

POWERFUL HARDWARE(COSTLY)

DEVELOPMENT CLIMATE MODEL (EXTREME CLIMATE

MODEL)

What is applied Climatology ?

Agriculture

Health

…

Hydropower

CLIMATOLOGY

USERS

What are needed to effectively manage climate risks?

Weather/Climate forecast/

predictionSystem

ClimateInformation

Production & Evaluation

System

Climatedata observation/

generationand analysis

system

Communication andDissemination System

Comm

unication and

Dissemination System

Com

mun

icatio

n and

Dissem

inatio

n Sys

tem

Ropelewski and Lyon (2003) in Boer (2009)

RA V STRATEGIC OPERATING PLAN (SOP) FOR 2012-2015Correspond to these WMO global priorities. Better climate services; Sustainable aviation services; Capacity building; Improved infrastructure (data and

information services) for weather, climate and water; and

Improved end-to-end Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS).

CHALLENGES and OPPORTUNITY

State of the Art Climate Services

Enhancing Accuracy of Climate Prediction(Including Extreme)

Main IssueSupporting

Trusted Data

Man Power

Research

Tools and Models

Derivation

Flood Forecast

Drought Forecast

Crop Calendar

Etc

Dissemination

Climate Model Improvement: Extreme Climate Prediction

Current Model(Statistic/Dynamic)

Good accuracy during normal Condition

Fact:Extreme

Event occur

frequently

Needs:

Extreme Climate Model

Opportunity:Each Region member has own climate model

Need to share through communication among forecasters

Establishing ASEAN Models based on local knowledge

雨量観測所

レーダ観測局

監視カメラ水位観測所

Outline of Early Warning Systems in Japan

地方事務所Local Office of Government

住民・自主防災会

洪水ハザードマップFlood Hazard Map

サイレン　 Siren

水防活動Flood Fighting

Evacuation Recommendation / Order 避難勧告・指示

Water Level Observatory

Rainfall Observatory

Radar

Surveillance camera

ILUSTRATION: Outline of Flood Warning System in Japan

Information of River河川情報提供

ICHARM

This system is very OK

Question: How to implement for ASEAN Countries???

Southeast Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SEACOF)

A Proposal

Slides from RA V Regional Seminar Solomon, 2011

Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) A key component of WMO Climate Information and

Prediction Services (CLIPS) project activities. First established in October 1996 at the Workshop on

Reducing Climate-Related Vulnerability in Southern Africa (Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe).

Gained momentum as a regional response to the major 1997–1998 El Niño event.

RCOF Concept was pioneered in Africa and spread worldwide.

WMO and a number of national, regional and international organizations (e.g., NOAA, IRI, Meteo France, World Bank, etc.) have supported their growth and expansion.

Regional Climate Outlook Forums worldwide

NEBCOFNEBCOF

SASCOF

NEACOF

EASCOF

SEACOF ?!

RCOF Concept RCOFs have the responsibility to produce and disseminate a

regional assessment (using a consensus-based approach) of regional climate for the upcoming season.

Built into the RCOF process is a regional networking of the climate service providers and user-sector representatives.

RCOFs bring together national, regional and international climate experts, on an operational basis, to produce regional climate outlooks based on input from NMHSs, regional institutions, Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) and Global Producing Centres of long range forecasts (GPCs) and other climate prediction centres.

Through interaction with sectoral users, extension agencies and policy makers, RCOFs assess the likely implications of the outlooks on the core socio-economic sectors in the region and explore potential applications of these outlooks.

RCOF sessions are expected to feed into national forums to develop detailed national-scale climate outlooks and risk information including warnings for communication to decision-makers and the public.

Consensus Process in RCOFs: Mostly Subjective

Assessment(conversation)

Regional, seasonalOutlook (temp, rain, flows)

Products

ENSOState

Climatepatterns

Averageclimate

ENSOClimatology

ENSOforecasts

Globalforecasts

StatisticalforecastsBa

ckgr

ound Forecasts

Observations

24

SEACOF Initiative (1/2) The potential for the development of a Southeast Asian

Climate Outlook Forum (SEACOF) has been discussed recently on several platforms and its importance recognized. – President of RA V highlighted its need at the recent WMO

Congress– WMO CLIPS Training Workshop on Operational Climate

Prediction, Citeko, Indonesia (27 September – 7 October 2011) There is a general agreement that such a process will

greatly enhance regional cooperation as well as more effective engagement of the user community.

SEACOF will help consolidate the existing capacities in the region, and facilitate sustained and consistent approaches to operational climate prediction.

This will need active participation of all the NMHSs in the sub-region including the associated multi-lateral entities (e.g., ASEAN, RIMES, etc.).

CLIPS Training, Citeko Oct 2011

Group Photo (after Opening Ceremony / Citeko, 27 September 2011) Participants, Local Organizer from BMKG, with Director General of BMKG Indonesia,

High-level Officials of BMKG, Secretariat from WMO and Guest Lecturers

SEACOF Initiative (2/2) RA V Regional Seminar on Climate Services is requested to

endorse the SEACOF concept, and facilitate broad based support.

RA V Working Group on Climate Services meeting on 4 November will consider the implementation strategy for SEACOF, along with the RCC and RCOF implementation in RA V.

Collaboration with RA II will also be required, to ensure the participation of RA II members of SEA.

Subject to endorsement by all participating countries, we may work towards the first session of SEACOF in 2012.

WMO Secretariat is requested to assist in the coordination of SEACOF preparatory phase, in close consultation with all the relevant stakeholders.

SEACOF may initially have exclusive focus on the most important season common to most countries, and the needs for covering other aspects of the sub-regional climate can be addressed in due course.

Summary Activities should be realistic and reflect the

needs of Region members Products of Climate Services must be consider

the needs of user Southeast Asia has a great potential to benefit

from the RCOF process, with most of the countries sharing a common climatic setting dominated by the monsoons and links with ENSO and very encouraging predictability

Capacity development is important, need to accelerate

THANK YOU FOR LISTENING

RCOF Process (1/3) Meetings of the regional and international climate experts

to develop a consensus for the regional climate outlook, typically in a probabilistic form;

The Forum proper, that involves both climate scientists and representatives from the user sectors, for identification of impacts and implications, and the formulation of response strategies;

Training programmes on seasonal climate prediction to strengthen the capacity of the national and regional climate scientists;

Outreach sessions involving sector specialists as well as media experts to develop effective communications strategies.

RCOF Process (2/3) Determine the critical time for development of

climate prediction for the region in question; Assemble a group of experts:

– Large scale prediction specialists, – regional and local climate applications and

prediction/downscaling specialists, – stakeholders representative of climate-sensitive

sectors; Review current large scale (global and regional)

climate anomalies and the most recent predictions for their evolution;

Review current climate conditions and their impacts at local, national and regional levels, and national-scale predictions;

RCOF Process (3/3) Considering all factors, produce a climate outlook with

related output (e.g. maps of temperature and precipitation anomalies) that will be applied and fine-tuned by NMHSs in the region to meet national needs;

Discuss applications of the outlook and related climate information to climate-sensitive sectors in the region; consider practical products for development by NMHSs;

Develop strategies to effectively communicate the information to decision-makers in all affected sectors;

Critique the session and its results:– document achieved improvements to the process and any

challenges encountered, – Establish steps required to further improve the process for

subsequent sessions.

RCOFs and Food Security Outlooks

Regional agriculture and food security outlooks are now regularly produced based on the climate outlooks after the RCOFs in some regions.

For example, the climate outlook in the Greater Horn of Africa in the form of precipitation for March to May 2008 has been used by Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS-NET), to prepare the Food Security Outlook for March to July 2008.

33

RCOFs and Public Health Many diseases are indirectly or directly associated with

climate. Vector-borne diseases are sensitive to changes in meteorological parameters such as rainfall, temperature, wind and humidity. These include malaria, dengue and Rift Valley Fever (RVF). Extreme climate events can trigger rampant outbreaks of waterborne diseases such as cholera and typhoid in areas where they are not common.

Some efforts are now being made to provide warning of changes in epidemic risk by integrating rainfall, temperature and other non-climate information.

For example, Malaria Outlook Forums (MALOFs) are now regularly held in association with RCOFs in southern Africa and the Greater Horn of Africa.

The information developed jointly by climate and health experts in these sessions, together with information on population vulnerability, food security, immuno-suppression and adequacy of control coverage, gives the health community a longer lead-time over which to optimize the allocation of the resources available to combat malaria.

34

WMO and RCOFs WMO assists developing countries hold and benefit from these

forums through CLIPS:– facilitating training workshops, – coordinating the collection and dissemination of training materials, – capacity building initiatives including some initial (limited) financial

support, and – coordination of special applications to sectors (e.g. health and

agriculture) WMO RCCs and other regional institutions play leading roles in the

organization and overall implementation of these forums WMO GPCs provide key inputs and strong technical support to

RCOFs NMHSs, the regions and the users of the products must contribute to

the sustainability of COFs in the regions: demonstrate utility of the forums and value of the products to those who need the information

Research capacities at the regional level need to be enhanced, to assess the forecast skills as well as to work towards their improvement

WMO promotes strong sub-regional ownership and sustainability of the RCOF process

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Concluding Remarks Climate-related risk management requires regional and

multi-disciplinary collaborations and exchange of information.

It is important to find ways for all countries to cope with climate variability through improved access to climate information and prediction products.

RCOFs have fostered interactions and exchange of information between the climate scientists and users of climate information.

Southeast Asia has a great potential to benefit from the RCOF process, with most of the countries sharing a common climatic setting dominated by the monsoons and links with ENSO and very encouraging predictability.

Capacity building at the national level, in operational climate prediction, is a major challenge to be addressed in the SEACOF process

SEACOF needs to bring greater attention to user aspects.