External costs of future technologies
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Transcript of External costs of future technologies
Folie 1 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004
External costs of future technologies
Wolfram Krewitt
DLRInstitute of Technical Thermodynamics
Systems Analysis and Technology AssessmentStuttgart
presented by
Andrea RicciISIS
Roma
NEEDS ForumJanuary 28, 2008
Cairo
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external cost assessment as an input to strategic energy planning
needs to reflect long term innovation dynamics of relevant technologies
energy policy decisions based on current technology characteristics might hinder the exploitation of future technology development potentials
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NEEDS Research Stream ‘life cycle approaches for the assessment of emerging technologies’
provide data on
- technical characteristics,
- costs
- life cycle emissions
- external costs
for emerging electricity generation technologies
with a strong focus on long term technical developments (time horizon 2050)
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NEEDS approach to characterise future technologies
Basic understanding in foresight studies: there is not just one possible future, but many. Dependent on how actors choose to act, different futures are possible, though of course not all of them will become reality.
To cover a reasonable range of alternative future development options, three different technology development scenarios for each individual technology:
‘pessimistic scenario’: Socio-economic framing conditions do not stimulate market uptake and technical innovations.
‘realistic-optimistic scenario’: Strong socio-economic drivers support dynamic market uptake and continuous technology development. It is very likely that the respective technology gains relevance on the global electricity market.
‘very optimistic scenario’: A technological breakthrough makes the respective technology on the long term a leading global electricity supply technology.
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technology foresight approaches
The individual technology scenarios are developed by combining a bottom-up technology oriented perspective with a top-down energy system perspective in an iterative way.
The key driving forces which can help to activate diffusion factors and to overcome market barriers are identified.
The assessment of future costs is based on experience curves. A complementary bottom-up approach is used, describing different sources of cost reduction, leading to cost estimates in a mid-term time perspective. Interviews with experts from both academia and industry are used to envision long-term alternative cost development paths.
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examples
two different solar technologies
- photovoltaic
- concentrating solar thermal power plants (CSP)
coal combustion with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)
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Resource direct and diffuse irradiation
Capacity Watt to MW
Installation: everywhere (roofs, etc.)
Full load hours: 700 – 2000 h/a
Reserve capacity: external
Proven tech. lifetime > 20 years
Annual generation in 2004 2500 GWh
Cost of electricity (today) 0,25 – 0,50 €/kWh
direct irradiation
10 MW to several 100 MW
flat unused terrain
2000 – 7000 h/a
internal (fossil hybrid operation)
> 20 years
800 GWh
0,13 – 0,22 €/kWh
Characteristics PV CSP
Source: R. Pitz-Paal, DLR
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‘Pessimistic’: current incentives for PV will not be supported long enough for the technology to ever become competitive with bulk electricity. Growth of world PV market resulting from current PV funding schemes, severely stunted by 2025.
‘Optimistic-realistic’: three different PV ‘families’ (crystalline Si, thin film, novel devices) are likely to co-exist, each expanding in its own most suitable sector. Growth according to industry (EPIA) predictions, after 2025 reduced growth rates (GP/EREC scenario).
‘Very optimistic’: - Market still growing until 2050 (yearly growth rate down to 4%) - By mid 2030’s large scale energy storage infrastructure- Very rapid expansion of PV based on novel technologies after
2025 (technological breakthrough) 50% of total PV market in 2050
PV technology development scenarios
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PV market development pathways
Source: P. Frankl, NEEDS, 2007
PV technology market share
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Present (2006) 2025 2050
Year
Mar
ket S
har
e
Novel Devices
Thin Films
c-Si
PV technology market share
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Present (2006) 2025 2050
Year
Mar
ket S
har
e
Novel Devices
Thin Films
c-Si
‘optimistic realistic’ scenario
‘pessimistic’ scenario
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Innovation and environmental learning: life cycle CO2 emissions of future PV configurations
Source: P. Frankl, NEEDS, 2007
4.6
13.7
8.2
33.0
3.0
12.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
singlecrystalline
present
c-Si ribbon
2025
CdTe c-Si ribbon
2050
CdTe ConcentratorGaInP/GaAs
g C
O2
/ k
Wh
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Concentrating solar thermal power plants
• Large scale grid connected electricity generation
• electricity generation today 800 GWh/y
• Several power plants under construction (Spain, US)
• thermal storage: dispatchable solar power
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solar resources in the Middle East/North Africa region
a solar thermal power plant of the size of Lake Nasser (Aswan) could harvest energy equivalent to the annual oil production of the Middle East
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CSP – future development options
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CSP – life cycle greenhouse gas emissions for various future configurations
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fossil fuels – carbon capture and sequestration
source: Dones et al., NEEDS, 2007(adapted from BP)
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pulverised coal combustion – current and with CCS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
600 MW 470 MW C 470 MW CCSaquifer 200km
470 MW CCSgasfield 400km
g C
O2-
Eq
. / k
Wh
Total Carbon dioxide, fossil Methane, fossil Dinitrogen monoxide
source: Dones et al., NEEDS, 2007(preliminary data)
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pulverised coal combustion (current/CCS) – valuation of impacts based on Ecoindicator ‘99
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
600 MW 470 MW C 470 MW CCSaquifer 200km
470 MW CCSgasfield 400km
EI'9
9 (H
,A)
Pt [
10E
- 0
3] /
kW
h
Fossil fuels
Minerals
Land use
Acidification/Eutrophication
Ecotoxicity
Ozone layer
Radiation
Climatechange
Resp.inorganics
Resp. organics
Carcinogens
source: Dones et al., NEEDS, 2007(preliminary data)
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external costs of future technologies(low estimate - no equity weighting. 2025 7 €/tCO2; 2050 5 €/tCO2)
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
1,20
IGCC c
oal
IGCC c
oal C
CS
Gas C
C
Gas C
C CCS
Fuel c
ell (M
CFC, nat
. gas
)
wind o
ffsho
re
PV c-Si,
roof,
cent
ral E
urope
PV sc-S
i, gr
ound
, Sout
h Eur
ope
Solar t
herm
al
Wav
e en
ergy
ex
tern
al c
os
ts in
€c
t/k
Wh
2025
2050
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external costs of future technologies(high estimate – equity weighting; normalised to Western Europe
2025 86 €/tCO2; 2050 52 €/tCO2)
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
8,00
IGCC c
oal
IGCC c
oal C
CS
Gas C
C
Gas C
C CCS
Fuel c
ell (M
CFC, nat
. gas
)
wind o
ffsho
re
PV c-Si,
roof,
cent
ral E
urope
PV sc-S
i, gr
ound
, Sout
h Eur
ope
Solar t
herm
al
Wav
e en
ergy
ex
tern
al c
os
ts in
€c
t/k
Wh
2025
2050
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conclusions
there is a large potential for improving environmental performance of current ‘emerging technologies’
quantifiable external costs strongly depend on assumptions related to the valuation of climate change impacts
depending on climate change valuation, external costs from fossil electricity generation might be significantly higher than private costs
Carbon Capture and Sequestration can significantly reduce quantifiable external costs from fossil fuels, but CCS ranks bad on other evaluation scheme (EcoIndicator ’99)
future renewable energy technologies show very low quantifiable external costs