Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Update on Cash Crops Coleman Research Group...

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Update on Cash Crops

Coleman Research Group PresentationMar. 20, 2015

Chad HartAssociate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist

[email protected]


U.S. Corn Supply and Use2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Area Planted (mil. acres) 91.9 97.3 95.4 90.6 89.0

Yield (bu./acre) 147.2 123.1 158.1 171.0 166.8

Production (mil. bu.) 12,360 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,595

Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,128 989 821 1,232 1,777

Imports (mil. bu.) 29 160 36 25 25

Total Supply (mil. bu.) 13,517 11,904 14,686 15,472 15,397

Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 4,557 4,315 5,036 5,300 5,275

Ethanol (mil. bu.) 5,000 4,641 5,134 5,200 5,225

Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,428 1,397 1,367 1,395 1,410

Exports (mil. bu.) 1,543 730 1,917 1,800 1,850

Total Use (mil. bu.) 12,528 11,083 13,454 13,695 13,760

Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 989 821 1,232 1,777 1,637

Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.22 6.89 4.46 3.70 3.50

Source: USDA-WAOB


U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Yield (bu./acre) 41.9 40.0 44.0 47.8 46.0


Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 215 169 141 92 385

Imports (mil. bu.) 16 41 72 25 20


Crush (mil. bu.) 1,703 1,689 1,734 1,795 1,840

Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) 88 105 97 116 116

Exports (mil. bu.) 1,365 1,317 1,647 1,790 1,820

Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,155 3,111 3,478 3,701 3,775

Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 169 141 92 385 430


Source: USDA-WAOB


U.S. Wheat Supply and Use2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Yield (bu./acre) 43.7 46.2 47.1 43.7 45.2


Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 862 743 718 590 691

Imports (mil. bu.) 112 123 169 160 150


Food (mil. bu.) 941 945 952 960 966

Seed (mil. bu.) 76 73 77 75 73

Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 162 370 226 150 190

Exports (mil. bu.) 1,051 1,012 1,176 900 975

Total Use (mil. bu.) 2,231 2,400 2,431 2,085 2,204

Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 743 718 590 691 762


Source: USDA-WAOB


Top: 2014 YieldBottom: Change from last year

Units: Bu/acre

Corn Yields

Source: USDA-NASS


Top: 2014 YieldBottom: Change

from last monthUnits: Bu/acre

Soybean Yields

Source: USDA-NASS


Winter Wheat Acreage

Source: USDA-NASS

Top: 2015 Planted AcreageBottom: Change from last year

Units: Thousand acres


Small Grains Summary

Source: USDA-NASS

Sorghum Barley Oats

2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014

Area Planted (mil. acres) 8.1 7.1 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.7

Yield (bu./acre) 59.6 67.6 71.3 72.4 64.1 67.7

Production (mil. bu.) 392 433 217 177 65 70

Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 15 34 80 82 36 25

Imports (mil. bu.) 0 0 19 23 97 100

Total Supply (mil. bu.) 408 467 316 282 198 194

Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 92 110 65 45 97 85

Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 70 30 155 152 75 77

Exports (mil. bu.) 212 300 14 12 2 2

Total Use (mil. bu.) 374 440 234 209 173 164

Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 34 27 82 73 25 30

Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.28 3.90 6.06 5.35 3.75 3.25


World Corn Production

Source: USDA-WAOB

Country or Region2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from February 10

Change from 2013/14

Million Tons Percent Percent

World 989.6 989.7 -0.2 0.0United States 351.3 361.1 0.0 2.8

Foreign 638.3 628.6 -0.3 -1.5Argentina 26.0 23.5 2.2 -9.6Brazil 80.0 75.0 0.0 -6.3Mexico 22.9 23.2 0.0 1.4Canada 14.2 11.5 0.0 -19.0European Union 64.3 74.2 0.0 15.4FSU-12 46.9 43.6 -0.3 -6.9Ukraine 30.9 28.5 0.0 -7.9Russia 11.6 11.5 0.0 -1.2

South Africa 15.0 11.5 -14.8 -23.2China 218.5 215.5 0.0 -1.4India 24.3 22.5 0.0 -7.3


World Soybean Production

Source: USDA-WAOB

Country or Region

2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast


Change from 2013/14


World 283.7 315.1 0.0 11.0United States 91.4 108.0 0.0 18.2

Foreign 192.3 207.0 0.0 7.6Argentina 54.0 56.0 0.0 3.7Brazil 86.7 94.5 0.0 9.0Paraguay 8.2 8.5 0.0 3.7Ukraine 2.8 3.9 0.0 40.6India 9.5 10.5 0.0 10.5China 12.2 12.4 0.0 1.2


World Wheat Production

Source: USDA-WAOB

Country or Region2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast


Change from 2013/14


World 716.1 724.8 0.0 1.2United States 58.1 55.1 0.0 -5.1

Foreign 658.0 669.6 0.0 1.8Argentina 10.5 12.5 0.0 19.0Canada 37.5 29.3 0.0 -21.9Australia 26.9 24.0 0.0 -10.9European Union 143.5 155.7 0.0 8.5Russia 52.1 59.0 0.0 13.3Ukraine 22.3 24.8 0.0 11.1Kazakhstan 13.9 13.0 0.0 -6.8China 121.9 126.0 0.0 3.3India 93.5 95.9 -0.1 2.5


World Weather

Source: USDC and USDA


Hog Crush Margin

Source: ISU Extension

The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures

Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig


Cattle Crush Margin

Source: ISU Extension

The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds

Corn: 50 bushels per head


U.S. Meat Production & Prices

Source: USDA-WAOB

2014 estimate

2015 forecast


Change from 2014

Production Billion pounds Percent PercentBeef 24.25 24.06 -0.7 -0.8Pork 22.84 24.12 0.1 5.6Broilers 38.55 40.03 0.2 3.8Turkey 5.76 6.08 0.0 5.5Total meat 92.17 95.07 -0.1 3.1

Prices Dollars/cwtSteers 154.56 161.88 -0.1 4.7Hogs 76.03 55.13 -1.6 -27.5

Cents/lbBroilers 104.9 99.1 -1.1 -5.5Turkey 107.6 104.9 -0.1 -2.5


Corn Export Shifts

Source: USDA-FAS


Corn Export Sales

Source: USDA-FAS


Soybean Export Sales

Source: USDA-FAS


Soy Export Shifts

Source: USDA-FAS


Wheat Export Pace

Source: USDA-FAS


Wheat Export Shifts

Source: USDA-FAS


Corn Grind for Ethanol


Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)


Crude Oil Prices

Sources: EIA and CME


Strength of the U.S. Dollar

Source: Federal Reserve


Current Corn Futures

Source: CME Group, 3/17/2015

3.66

3.79


Current Soybean Futures


9.94

9.05


Current Wheat Futures


5.89

5.22


Crop Acreage

Source: USDA-NASS


Crop Shifts

Source: USDA-NASS


Thoughts for 2015 and BeyondSupply/demand concerns

Biofuel production and policy, broader energy demandExport strength/weakness, China’s moves in the corn & wheat marketsAcreage allocation for 2015, Where do the extra acres go?

2014/15

USDA

2015/16

USDA

2015/16

Futures

(3/17/15)

Corn $3.70 $3.50 $3.79

Soybeans $10.20 $9.00 $9.05

Wheat $6.00 $5.10 $5.22


Thank you for your time!

Any questions?

My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/

Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/

Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Update on Cash Crops Coleman Research Group...

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