Export performance of Sri Lanka
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Export performance of Sri LankaStatistical Analysis
A interactive Forum “Whither Exports in the next 5 years?”, Organized by The Exporters Association of Sri Lanka25th October 2013
By Subhashini Abeysinghe, Senior Economic AnalystVerité Research Pvt. Ltd.
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0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
Sri Lanka South Korea Malaysia Thailand Viet Nam
Exports from selected East Asian Countries (as a % of World Exports)
Source: World Trade Organization
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19701973
19761979
19821985
19881991
19941997
20002003
20062009
20120
20
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140
Malaysia Sri Lanka Thailand Korea, Rep.
Exports as a % of GDP: Comparison with East Asian NICs
Source: World Bank Data
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Bangladesh Vietnam India Sri Lanka Cambodia
Exports As a % of GDP: Comparison with selected developing countries in Asia
Source: World Bank Data
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Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-1
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Apr-12
Jul-1
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Apr-13
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0
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Export Growth Import Growth
Sri Lanka: Growth in Exports and Imports by Month
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Gha
na
Vie
t Nam
Cam
bod
ia
Ind
ia
Ban
glad
esh
Bra
zil
Sout
h K
orea
Tha
ilan
d
Mal
aysi
a
Chi
le
Pak
ista
n
Sri L
anka
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2002-12 2010-12
Annual Average Export Growth (%)
Source: World Trade Organization
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Agricultural exports Services exportsIndustrial Exports
Composition of Exports (Value USD Mn)
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Agriculture Services Industry
Composition of Exports (% of GDP)
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Composition of Exports from Sri Lanka
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Industrial Exports (As a % of Total Exports)
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Agriculture Exports (As a % of Total Exports)
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports
Composition of Exports from Sri Lanka
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China India IndonesiaMalaysia Sri Lanka ThailandViet Nam
Textile and Garments as a % of Manufacturing
20032005
20072009
20110
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VT (USD Bn) SL(USD Bn)VT (% of Manu.) SL(% of Manu.)
Garments Exports: Vietnam and Sri LankaValue & % of Manufacturing Exports
Composition of Exports from Sri Lanka
Source: World Trade Organization/Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports
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2007 2008 2009 2010250
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Persons engaged '000s (L)
No. of establishments (R )
No
of e
stab
lishm
ents
No
of P
erso
ns
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
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2010
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2012
200250300350400450500550600
2.0
3.0
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8.0
Value (US$ Mn) Quantity (Mn Units)
Us$
Mill
ion
Mill
ion
Uni
ts
Top 5 Products Exported to USA
Top 5 Top 10 Top 15 Top 20
1826
33 3831
4958 62
2002 2012
Leading apparel items exported as a % of Total apparel imports into USA from Sri Lanka (at 6 digit level)
Apparel Sector
Source: Department of Census and Statistics
Employment and Establishments
Source: US International Trade Commission
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Agriculture Product Export Growth (%):2002-2012
Volume Value
Tea 10 121
Natural Rubber 1 362
Desiccated Coconut
-16 115
Cinnamon 36 203
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports
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Volume Mn Kg Price Rs/KgM
illio
n Kg
Rs/K
g
Tea Exports (Price and Volume)
Agricultural Products
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Tea Bags Packets Bulk
Composition of Tea Exports
Perc
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Tea Bags Packets Bulk Instant tea
Average Price (Rs per Kg)
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports Source: Sri Lanka Customs Statistics
Agricultural Products
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Labour Force (000' persons)
Daily wages (incl price share and incentive)
000'
Per
sons
Rs per D
ay
Employment and Wages - Plantations
Sri L
anka
Ban
glad
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Ind
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Ken
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Vie
tnam
0
1
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COP (USD/Kg)Productivity (000Kg/ha/yr)
Cost of Production and Productivity- Tea
Source: Statistical Information on Plantation Crops
Agricultural Products
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CR(5) CR(10) CR (15)
36
49
59
35
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61
2005 2012
Product Concentration of Exports at HS 4 digit (% of Total Exports)
Other
Apparel
Petroleum products
Tea
Rubber products
Spices
Diamonds
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
2012 2002
Composition of Exports by Product
Product Concentration
Central Bank Annual Reports and Sri Lanka Customs Statistics
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Market Concentration2
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Asa EU USA Other Asia - India
Direction of Exports (As a % of Total Exports)
CR(5) CR(10) CR(15)
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7582
51
6674
2005 2012
Market Concentration of Exports (% of Total Exports)
Central Bank Annual Reports and Sri Lanka Customs Statistics
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World Exports (USD BN) Share of Sri Lanka
% S
har
e
Valu
e USD
Bn
Commercial Services: Value of World Exports and the Market Share of Sri Lanka
Source: World Trade Organisation
Services Exports
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0.00
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IndiaMalaysiaSri LankaViet NamIndonesiaThailand
Exports as a % of Total World Export of Commercial Services
Services Exports
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IT/BPO Sector
Export Earnings: USD Million
Financial Attractiveness
People, skills and availability
Business Environment
Total Score
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
6
33
44
21
Ranking of Sri LankaGlobal Locations Index 2011
Overal rank
Environmental sustainability
Tourism infrastructure
ICT infrastructure
Availability of qualified labor
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
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108
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Travel and Tourism Competitiveness IndexRank out of 140 countries (2013)
Services Exports
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports & Export Development Board
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Source of Export GrowthIntensive Margin or Extensive Margin?
40096123033853118985212008874424958463397162
-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0
Shift in Product Composition: 2005 & 2012 (Change as a % of Exports): HS Description
62 Apparel – not Knitted or crocheted71 Precious stones39 Plastics/articles thereof63 Made up textile articles84 Machinery and parts95 Toys, games, sports equip.24 Tobacco, manufac. Tobacco44 Wood and articles thereof87 Vehicle spare parts
08 Coconuts/fruits20 Preparations vegetables, fruits
21 Misc. edible preparations85 Electrical machinery and parts89 Ships, boats11 Milling industry products
53 Veg. textile fibers38 Misc. chemical products03 Fish23 Residues from food indus/animal feed
61 Apparel – Knitted or crocheted09 Tea and spices40 Rubber and articles thereof
Source: Sri Lanka Customs Statistics
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Annual Average Growth (%) : 2006 - 2012
HS Description
39 Plastics/articles thereof61 Apparel – not Knitted or crocheted71 Precious stones63 Made up textile articles95 Toys, games, sports equip.61 Apparel – Knitted or crocheted24 Tobacco, manufac. Tobacco09 Tea and spices87 Vehicle spare parts03 Fish44 Wood and articles thereof53 Veg. textile fibers84 Machinery and parts40 Rubber and articles thereof08 Coconuts/fruits
85 Electrical machinery and parts38 Misc. chemical products11 Milling industry products20 Preparations vegetables, fruits
23 Residues from food indus/animal feed21 Misc. edible preparations49 Printed books, papers, pictures89 Ships, boats
Source: Sri Lanka Customs Statistics
Source of Export GrowthIntensive Margin or Extensive Margin?
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ITALY
BELGIUM
IRAQ
INDNSIA
GERMANY
LIBYA
AUSTRAL
MEXICO
THAILND
SWEDEN
PAKISTN
HG KONG
NETHLDS
SU.ARAB
JAPAN
SNGAPOR
U.KING.
U.S.A.
-10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0
Change in Direction of Exports: 2005 &2012
AZERBAIJAIN
MALAYSIA
IRAQ
CHINA
SWEDEN
TURKEY
SWITZERLAND
MALDIVES
MEXICO
HONG KONG
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
GERMENY
NETHERLANDS
U.A.E.
FRANCE
TOTAL
INDIA
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Average Export Growth (2005-2012)
Source: Sri Lanka Customs Statistics
Source of Export GrowthIntensive Margin or Extensive Margin?
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Thailand Vietnam India Pakistan Sri Lanka 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
As
a %
of T
otal
Exp
orts
Exports to Selected Asian Countries (China, S. Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore)
Exports to Asia
Source: www.trademap.org
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Exports from Sri Lanka: Shrinking Share in a Growing Market
Time Taken to Double World Exports
USD Trillion
1979-1991
1991-2003
2003-2008
2-4 4-8 8-16
13 Years 13 Years 6 Years
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
0.00%
0.01%
0.02%
0.03%
0.04%
0.05%
0.06%
0.07%
0.08%
0.09%
0.10%
0
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10
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14
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20
World Exports Share of Sri Lanka
% S
har
e of
Sri
Lan
ka
World
Export V
alue U
SD T
N
World Export Value of Merchandise Exports and World Market Share of Sri Lanka
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?
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Agriculture products Clothing
Share of Agricultural Products and Clothing Exports in World Exports
Exports from Sri Lanka: In Shrinking Markets?
Source: World Trade Organisation
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Source: Key Trends in International Merchandise Trade, UNCTAD, 2013
Exports from Sri Lanka: In Shrinking Markets?
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Developed economies Developing economies Developing economies: Asia
Share of World Imports
Exports from Sri Lanka: In Shrinking Markets?
Source: UNCTAD International Trade Statistics
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Thank You!