Exponentials And NetworksThe Existential Challenge Of Radical Innovation For The Enterprise

October 2014, Salerno, Italy

David OrbanCEO, Dotsub

Advisor & Faculty, Singularity University !

@davidorban @dotsub

@singularityu

1. Exponentials 2. Networks 3. Organizations 4. Principles 5. Q&A

Exponentials Intro To 2

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2000: First Human Genome at $3B

2014: Human Genome at $2K

Confusing

Obvious

2002

16%2004

14%

200612%

2008 10%

Networks From hierarchies to heterarchies

The future is already here. It is just not evenly distributed yet

Exponential

Pyramids

archer10

Dreams

Network Age

jurvetson

Achievements

99%

1% 2%

98%

10.000 BC Today

terrestrial vertebrates in the wild

humans pets cattle

Anthropocene

AnthropoceneUnsustainable

myfavoritedinosaur.com, LadyofHats, OpenClips

Reason

Science

Hierarchy

Network

La tesi fondamentale della Network Society

1.!! Il cambiamento sociale ed economico può diffondersi solo quando si appoggia su una base tecnologica solida che la rende sostenibile.!!

2. ! Sono emerse tecnologie globali decentralizzate che ottengono risultati superiori rispetto a quelle centralizzate e gerarchiche.!!

3. ! Queste tecnologie inarrestabili minano alla base i pilastri che supportano lo Stato Nazione. L’organizzazione socioeconomica risultante è la Network Society.

David Orban – Network Society Project – http://netsoc.org

Network Society Pillars

Photovoltaics - Ecat?1. Energy

2. Manufacturing

3D hydroponics - Plantlab

plantlab

3. Food

4. Health

5. Learning

P2P Currency - Bitcoin

sylvar

6. Finance

7. Security

8. Policy

thecrazyfilmgirl

Unstoppable

Toolbox

Living In The Network Society

New Organizations

Empowerment

Emancipation

Experiential

Learning

Title TextBody Level One Body Level Two Body Level Three

Body Level Four Body Level Five

Overcoming Dichotomy

Sustainability For-Profit Nonprofit New

Economical ✔ ✘ ✔

Social & !Environmental ✘ ✔ ✔

Dignity

Community

Ilya Frankazoid / shutterstock.com

Spiking State of Alarm

Incumbent systems

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Bureaucracies

Resistant

http://bestandworstever.blogspot.it/2012/04/worst-playground-sign-ever.html

Precaution

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Panic

Overreaction

Overreaction

Overreaction

Overreaction

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It’s All OK

Proactionary

Organizations Networked exponentials

Questions

1. Who is an Entrepreneur?

2. Who is a Manager?

3. Who is a Creative (Designer, Engineer)?

The average lifespan of an S&P 500 company has

decreased from 67 years in the 1920s to 15 years today.

Ten Times Better Performance

New Information Layers

HTML (text) VideoSocial Profiles

Location

Health Data

Sensor Networks

Internet of Things

Unexpected Consequences

Unanticipated Communications

Video has the broadest emotional bandwidth

90% of Global Traffic by 2015

Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast and Methodology, 2010-2015

Over 60% of d

octors

learn from

online vid

eo

93% take acti

on after

viewing them

A billion people to have their own voice to contribute !to the dialog of the 21st Century, that is very empowering!”

Video Discovery

“shield of red shadows”

Unmanageable Complexity

Unprecedented Value

PrinciplesSome

Transparency

Identity

Trust

Anybody where time

{

Open Source Distributed

Decentralized

Searching

Topic Area

Dept

h of

Exp

lora

tion

A B C

1

2

…

∞

3

… ∞

Solution Search Space

Depth First Search Strategy

A B C

1

2

3

4

5

Topic Area

Dept

h of

Exp

lora

tion

… ∞

Breadth First Search Strategy

A B C D E

1

2

3

Topic Area

Dept

h of

Exp

lora

tion

…

∞

David Gelb

Winning strategy – Jiro Ono

A B C

1

2

…

∞

sushi!

Topic Area

Dept

h of

Exp

lora

tion

Michelin 3-star restaurateur in Tokyo, protagonist of the documentary “Jiro Dreams of Sushi”

3

… ∞

cosimoorban

Winning strategy – Richard Saul Wurman

A B … ∞

1

2

design!

Topic Area

Dept

h of

Exp

lora

tion

Architect, designer, author of over 80 books, coined “Information architecture”, and created TED

…

∞

3

C

Trying

The Privilege of Failure

• Social Networks

• Global markets

• Location

• Mobile

“The formula for success? Double your rate of failure.”

Thomas J. Watson, IBM

“The Internet multiplied a thousandfold our failure rate, without increasing the cost of our success”

Cory Doctorow

The Privilege of Failure

Innovating

Inventing

Questions

Answers

Ignorance

Competitiveness

Innovation

Invention!

Adapting

Adopting

davidorban.com @davidorban

!

@dotsub @singularityu